A quiet 2009 for natural disasters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:35 PM GMT on January 04, 2010

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It was a relatively quiet year globally for natural disasters in 2009. According to Munich Re insurance company, the death toll from 2009 natural disasters was approximately 10,000, well below the average 75,000 deaths per year seen over the decade of the 2000s. Damage from 2009 natural disasters was about $50 billion, compared to the decadal average of $115 billion, and far below the $200 billion in destruction wrought by 2008's natural disasters. The most costly disaster of 2009 was Winter Storm Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, causing $5.1 billion in damage. The deadliest weather-related disaster was Category 2 Typhoon Ketsana, which killed 694 people in the Philippines and Southeast Asia. Category 2 Typhoon Morakot was a close second, with 614 fatalities, primarily in Taiwan. The deadliest natural disaster overall was the magnitude 7.6 earthquake that shook the Indonesian island of Sumatra on 30 September, killing nearly 1,200 people.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.

I'll be back Tuesday with my selection for the top global weather event of 2009: the Horn of Africa drought.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ElConando:
you mean 2010 i guess.


opps yeah thanks El lol.
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Quoting jipmg:


Tampa is in the mid- upper 30s though.. so if that moisture gets to tampa, they could see some wet snow flakes


The only limiting factor I see is very dry air at the lower levels(dewpoints in the teens).
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Here's a map I made for Thursday night.. NHC says Jacksonville, Florida will have rain in the low 30s, I think sleet may end up being the precip type.

Photobucket

Also note the CMC has been consistent with energy from the Pacific storm cutting off and heading southward into Texas then the GOM right when the "Siberian Arctic Outbreak" occurs. This would mean snow from Texas to Florida. 10% happening as of now, but I can see how it happens.

SORRY, WRONG MAP.. ACTUAL MAP REPOSTED.
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Quoting weatherbro:


Not according to the modals(if correct). To this day they haven't backed off on the extreme outbreak this weekend and gain mid-next week!

Yep as you said, don't expect any real moderating trends until at least 2/11/09. Until then, bungle up.
you mean 2010 i guess.
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sat overnight low is 18! yikes!
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Maybe "Epic Siberian Outbreak" is too extreme


Not according to the modals(if correct). To this day they haven't backed off on the extreme outbreak this weekend and gain mid-next week!

Yep as you said, don't expect any real moderating trends until at least 2/11/09. Until then, bungle up.
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thanks pat!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
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30 degrees here in tally, gonna be a COLD week. Well for me.
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"Save Image as" from NOAA NWS New Orleans

..Upload to photobucket,

Then post here.
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Quoting Patrap:

hey Pat.. how did u get that map?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
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Night Folks! I'll be back around 9AM in the morning!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Hey Bordonaro do you think (speaking for the southeast US) that we will see another arctic outbreak before the winter's over?


It is possible, I'd say around a 25% chance, and it will not be as severe or as long lasting, IF we receive another Arctic outbreak. However, the GFS/ECMWF models are "hinting" at a moderating trend starting on or around 1/11/10, with a return to more normal temps
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Maybe "Epic Siberian Outbreak" is too extreme. However this system is bringing some of the wildest and coldest weather to MANY PARTS of the US over the last 10+ years!

Hey Bordonaro do you think (speaking for the southeast US) that we will see another arctic outbreak before the winter's over?
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Maybe "Epic Siberian Outbreak" is too extreme. However this system is bringing some of the wildest and coldest weather to MANY PARTS of the US over the last 10+ years!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting btwntx08:
Link
this link is the potential arctic blast and a wintry mix with hard freezes take a look

Wow! that's amazing at least all of that mess is happening at the end of the work week. I've lived in FL. for all of my 21 yrs. and I recall in '05 seeing ice on the ground while taking the bus to going to school someone said how it was colder here than someplace in Montana.
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Night TD,and KOTG,..stay warm.
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For those North Texans or curious amongst ya, I put together a new blog for our N TX Siberian Express"

Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
later i am out as well goodnight all stay warm stay safe see ya with model updates around 8 am
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g'night fellow bloggers!
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It's too warm for snow if the clouds would've held off and allowed for more cooling then yes we would have had a few flurries. I guess we will see tomorrow night.
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Thurs should be very interesting into Friday atmo,..then really Stupid Dixie Cold Blue Northern thru Sunday

Do yer driving tom and Weds and be ready if in this WInter Wx advisory.

Winter Weather Advisory, Freeze Warning

Statement as of 11:46 PM CST on January 04, 2010

... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM Wednesday
to 10 am CST Sunday...

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM Wednesday
to 10 am CST Sunday.

By late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning... a surface low
will start to develop over the northwestern Gulf. This will cause
temperatures to warm slowly with moisture increasing across the
area. Initially... light to moderate showers will be possible but
by late Thursday morning... a very cold airmass will begin to push
into the region. Rain will begin to change over to sleet and then
snow Thursday morning for areas in southern Mississippi along
with the felicianas and point coupee Parish. By Thursday
afternoon areas along and north of the 10/12 corridor will likely
see a mix of rain... sleet... and snow. At this time we are not
expecting much in the way of accumulation but a light dusting to
half an inch of accumulation on grassy areas would not be out of
the question.

All of the moisture will move out of the area by Thursday evening
and then the greater issue arrives... very cold temperatures. An
Arctic airmass will continue to move in and remain over the area
from Thursday night through Sunday. This airmass is associated
with near -40 degree temperatures in the interior of Canada. With
a nice snow pack across the upper and Central Plains as well as
the upper and mid Mississippi Valley the airmass will not
moderate considerably. The airmass is expected to bring very cold
temperatures to the area that could be comparable to the Arctic
outbreak of early February 1996... but not as low as those
experienced during the 1985 and 1989 Arctic outbreaks. Multiple
nights with lows in the teens will be possible across southern
Mississippi and portions of southeast Louisiana that are
generally north of the 10/12 corridor. Across the southshore...
lows could drop to into the lower to mid 20s for multiple nights.
The coldest temperatures are currently forecast to occur Saturday
morning with lows ranging from 13 near McComb to 23 at Galliano.
Even though it is not forecast right now... this airmass does have
the potential to cause lows that could bottom out in the single
digits across isolated locations in southern Mississippi and
maybe into the teens around the New Orleans Metro.

In addition to the cold temperatures breezy north winds will be
ongoing both Friday and Saturday mornings. This in combination
with the real cold temperatures will lead to hazardous wind chill
readings down into the single digits.

These conditions could become life threatening and at the very
least hazardous to property. Residents should make preparations
for extremely cold temperatures now.

To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor pipes...
pipes should be wrapped... drained... or allowed to drip slowly.
Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain their
systems... or cover any above-ground pipes to protect them from
freezing.

Pets are also subject to the extreme cold. Keep pets indoors as
much as possible. If this is not possible... make sure outdoor
pets have warm dry shelter... and provide sufficient food and
fresh unfrozen water.

Be particularly careful with portable heaters... there is a danger
of fire or poisonous fumes. Make frequent checks on the elderly.
Make sure their furnaces are working and heating the house
properly.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.





837 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2010

... Freeze warning remains in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am
CST Tuesday...

More cold air is expected to filter into the region this tonight.
While areas near and along tidal lakes may remain slightly above
freezing in the morning... many areas beyond 3 miles south and
southwest of Lake Pontchartrain will experience a light freeze
with a freeze duration of 4 to 6 hours.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

Be particularly careful with portable heaters... there is a
danger of fire or poisonous fumes.

Pets are also subject to the extreme cold. Keep pets indoors as
much as possible. If this is not possible... make sure outdoor
pets have warm dry shelter... and provide sufficient food and
fresh unfrozen water.
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check out Sat. night forecast for Tampa which is subject to change http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail/USFL0481?dayNum=4



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Kenner, LA 10 miles west NOLA

Current Conditions, Historical Data & Charts

30.6 F

NNW at 25.5 mph

30.48 in 0.00 in / hr


Wind Chill 16F
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

Thanks for the info and the answer back.


no problem!
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Quoting Patrap:
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 6 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy

32.7 F

Approaching damn cold north of the big puddle:

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting tornadodude:
From http://www.cbs3springfield.com/weather/classroom/weathercharts/6550997.html

Liquid Equivalent Chart

When it rains, it's pretty easy to see how much water stacked up from a particular storm, but when it snows it's a little more difficult. Most of the time, the fallen snow has to be melted down and then measured as if it were rain. Since snow contains less water per flake than a rain drop, it naturally takes a larger volume of snow to amass the same water content of a smaller measurement of rain. Well, there's a pattern that shows up where in advance we can get an idea of how much snow is going to fall from a storm if we know how much water it can put down. Here's a conversion chart showing that pattern. The 'standard' conversion at about 32 degrees, is a 10:1 ratio...Meaning, if you melted down 10" of snow, you would have 1" of water.

Thanks for the info and the answer back.
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Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 4, 11:54 pm EST

Overcast

11 °F
(-12 °C)
Humidity: 77 %
Wind Speed: W 10 MPH
Barometer: 30.22" (1024.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 5 °F (-15 °C)
Wind Chill: -3 °F (-19 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

BTW, what does 15-20 to 1 ratio mean?


A lil moisture is gonna make alot of snow.

One inch of liquid precip will cause 15-20" of snow.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
From http://www.cbs3springfield.com/weather/classroom/weathercharts/6550997.html

Liquid Equivalent Chart

When it rains, it's pretty easy to see how much water stacked up from a particular storm, but when it snows it's a little more difficult. Most of the time, the fallen snow has to be melted down and then measured as if it were rain. Since snow contains less water per flake than a rain drop, it naturally takes a larger volume of snow to amass the same water content of a smaller measurement of rain. Well, there's a pattern that shows up where in advance we can get an idea of how much snow is going to fall from a storm if we know how much water it can put down. Here's a conversion chart showing that pattern. The 'standard' conversion at about 32 degrees, is a 10:1 ratio...Meaning, if you melted down 10" of snow, you would have 1" of water.
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You gotta love Paul Delagotto he keeps it real
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Quoting tornadodude:
A couple of the NWS offices around me are calling for 15-20 to 1 ratios with the coming snow

BTW, what does 15-20 to 1 ratio mean?
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A couple of the NWS offices around me are calling for 15-20 to 1 ratios with the coming snow:

NWS St. Louis: VERY COLD SFCS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO EASILY
ACCUMULATE AND NATURE OF STORM FAVORS HI LIQUID-TO-SNOW RATIOS...
PERHAPS AS HI AS 20:1...BUT PRIMARILY USED A MORE CONSERVATIVE 15:1
FOR THIS FORECAST. A WINTER WX ADVISORY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE ADDRESSED ON TUESDAY.


NWS Central Illinois: BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN
06-18Z ON THURSDAY...WITH 3-4 INCH VALUES FAIRLY COMMON WITH DRY
SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20 TO 1. WINDS EXPECTED TO CRANK UP FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF MAIN SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

NWS Paducah Kentucky: NOT LOOKING AT TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF HERE...ON THE
ORDER OF .20 TO .25 LIQUID EQUIVALENT. HOWEVER...WITH THE AIR MASS
BEING SO COLD...WOULD LIKELY SEE OVER 15/1 RATIO ON THE SNOW
AMOUNTS...WHICH PUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 3 TO 4 INCH RANGE.

NWS Louisville Kentucky: WITH
SNOW RATIOS IN 15:1 TO 20:1 RANGE AND WITH THE PROJECTED QPF FROM
THE 12Z MODELS...SNOW ACCUMS FOR WED NIGHT - THURS NIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME

NWS Indianapolis: THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS DEFINITELY
INHIBITING PWATS....QPFS ARE RANGING BETWEEN 0.15 TO 0.25.
NONETHELESS...THE SNOWFALL COULD START AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THE DURATION OF THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY
A BIG ROLE IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY...STILL THINKING IN THE
3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.
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It's ridiculous how there is a vast range of temp. in Tampa from the different reporting stations.
Fox and Bay News 9 has 40
Accuweather has 32
Weather Channel has 43
NWS and wunderground has 40

Accuweather always hypes things and the weather channel must be reporting closer to the water.

I live in Largo and just went outside to my amazement it seems warmer than about 7-8 o'clock. I see their is precip. moving in will have to see if it reaches the ground and how far inland it goes.
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.LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE OUTLYING MODEL...TAKING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM A LITTLE
FASTER AND TO THE SOUTH OF INDIANA THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE
ECMWF HAS COME INTO LINE WITH THE GEM...AND THE NAM IS TURNING OUT
AS EXPECTED...ALL TAKING A MORE NORTHERN TRACK. THIS WOULD PUT THE
FORECAST AREA RIGHT UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET...AROUND 100 TO 150 KTS.

FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CONTINUES TO BE DECENT IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT THE MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS DEFINITELY
INHIBITING PWATS....QPFS ARE RANGING BETWEEN 0.15 TO 0.25.
NONETHELESS...THE SNOWFALL COULD START AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THE DURATION OF THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY
A BIG ROLE IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY...STILL THINKING IN THE
3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.


IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURGE OF VERY
COLD AIR BEHIND IT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE THROUGH ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRESH SNOW COVER WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.
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My Forecast (NWS):

Overnight: Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 14. West northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 23. West northwest wind between 8 and 11 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 9. West northwest wind between 5 and 8 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 25. West northwest wind between 5 and 7 mph.

Wednesday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 19. West northwest wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday: Snow. High near 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 11.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 17.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 21.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 9.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 25.
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The moment comet was eaten up after orbiting too close to the sun


By Scott Warren
Last updated at 1:42 AM on 05th January 2010
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What is the record for consecutive days below freezing?

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

...INFORMATION ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD...

BEGINNING TOMORROW...PADUCAH KENTUCKY AND EVANSVILLE INDIANA WILL
HAVE SEEN 5 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES NEVER CLIMBING ABOVE 32
DEGREES F. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT 7
DAYS WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...BRINGING THE TOTAL TO 12+ DAYS
STRAIGHT THAT THE MERCURY HAS FAILED TO CLIMB ABOVE 32 DEGREES.

LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORD BOOKS...WE HAVE OBTAINED THE TOP 5 WINTER
EVENTS WHEN PADUCAH AND EVANSVILLE HAD THE SAME SCENARIO. THE DATES
BEGIN IN 1937 AND CONTINUE TO THE PRESENT.

IN PADUCAH:

RANK # OF DAYS END DATE
1 - 13 DAYS ENDING 1/21/1978

2 - 11 DAYS ENDING 1/03/2001

3 - 11 DAYS ENDING 1/28/1940

4 - 10 DAYS ENDING 12/24/1989

5 - 7 DAYS ENDING 1/11/1979

THIS CURRENT STREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TOP 5 BEFORE IT IS OVER.

IN EVANSVILLE:

RANK # OF DAYS END DATE

1 - 18 DAYS ENDING 1/03/2001

2 - 17 DAYS ENDING 1/23/1918

3 - 16 DAYS ENDING 2/10/1978

4 - 14 DAYS ENDING 1/22/1978

5 - 13 DAYS ENDING 1/30/1940


2010 IN EVANSVILLE ALSO COULD EASILY MOVE INTO THE TOP 5 AS THIS
COLD SNAP IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
for anyone who is in the wundercast contest ya got 9 mins to enter your forecast


for what?
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.
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Quoting jipmg:
it was 38 as of an hour ago in tampa, Im sure its 35-37 now, and the precip is becoming heavier on base radar (what is actually at the surface) I think snow is a possibility for tampa tonight.
I am watching this same thing. The temps have been rising over the past hour though do to the increase in clouds... it still can snow at about 40 degrees though
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for anyone who is in the wundercast contest ya got 9 mins to enter your forecast
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 182 Comments: 57062
588. jipmg
it was 38 as of an hour ago in tampa, Im sure its 35-37 now, and the precip is becoming heavier on base radar (what is actually at the surface) I think snow is a possibility for tampa tonight.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

Sorry but I think the temps in Tampa are in the low 40's from what I just saw on the weather channel. I don't think the chances are good for flurries. Would be nice to see but...


AS OF 11 PM

TAMPA 38 33 82 320 at 5 30.16 1021.2 10 35 SCT ...KTPA
TAMPA/MACDILL 48 40 74 290 at 4 30.16 1021.5 10 43 BKN ...KMCF
TAMPA/VANDENBER 32 32 100 0 at 0 30.16 10 CLR ...KVDF
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 182 Comments: 57062
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 6 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy

32.7 F


Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: 30 °F
Humidity: 57%
Dew Point: 19 °F
Wind: 4.5 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 10.5 mph
Pressure: 30.36 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 2900 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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