A quiet 2009 for natural disasters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:35 PM GMT on January 04, 2010

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It was a relatively quiet year globally for natural disasters in 2009. According to Munich Re insurance company, the death toll from 2009 natural disasters was approximately 10,000, well below the average 75,000 deaths per year seen over the decade of the 2000s. Damage from 2009 natural disasters was about $50 billion, compared to the decadal average of $115 billion, and far below the $200 billion in destruction wrought by 2008's natural disasters. The most costly disaster of 2009 was Winter Storm Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, causing $5.1 billion in damage. The deadliest weather-related disaster was Category 2 Typhoon Ketsana, which killed 694 people in the Philippines and Southeast Asia. Category 2 Typhoon Morakot was a close second, with 614 fatalities, primarily in Taiwan. The deadliest natural disaster overall was the magnitude 7.6 earthquake that shook the Indonesian island of Sumatra on 30 September, killing nearly 1,200 people.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.

I'll be back Tuesday with my selection for the top global weather event of 2009: the Horn of Africa drought.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting atmoaggie:

Hehe. I've been doing the same for a few years now...

My anniversary of my 29th B-day is coming up on the 11th.


I count it as experience...I'm 19 with soon to be 31 years experience
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting melwerle:
Good Morning Flood! Good to see ya. How's the back?


Better...I'm getting there. Lots of walking (sucks at 20F)...thanks for asking!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
133. JRRP
Link
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Hey Tampa - NO WAY. I have friends that are actually sailing in that crap...in dry suits. NO WAY. Kat and I are cold sailing HERE. The water is freezing compared to the east coast.
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Portlight info, update, news, scoop, 411
Link
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting presslord:
Chucktown!!!!!!!!!!!!! Make it stop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Afternoon Press. Another 20 degree start for the Holy City this morning. Missed the record by 1 again, but downtown tied its record of 28. Thursday night into Friday still looks rather interesting. Would not be surprised if some areas wake up to a blanket of white. The latest guidance has trended slightly colder and wetter. Stay tuned !!
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Quoting melwerle:
I'm sorry it's so freezing there Awake...I have heard from friends in that area that it's miserable...with high winds too.


Its perfect for sailing Melissa......you would love it.....LOL
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I'm sorry it's so freezing there Awake...I have heard from friends in that area that it's miserable...with high winds too.
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Chucktown!!!!!!!!!!!!! Make it stop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
126. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TWO
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 08-20092010
22:00 PM Réunion January 4 2009
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (999 hPa) located at 10.8S 87.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance was reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0 /D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 11.4S 85.9E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 12.2S 84.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 13.5S 81.1E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 14.5S 77.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=========================
Deep convective activity has consolidated in the western semi-circle and presents a curved band pattern wrapping over about 3 tens. 37 ghz microwave imagery F17 (1203z) and F16 (1301z) however show a bad defined low level configuration. The low level circulation center is located on the eastern border of the CCC undergoing a strong easterly wind shear as shown thanks to the arc of cirrus east of the system. This wind shear is not expected to significantly weaken before 48 hrs range, but with a forecast track in the same direction than the wind shear, this constraint should be weakened. Low levels inflow and oceanic heat content are very good up to range 72 HRS.

The system should therefore intensify regularly. The forecast is based on the available models, which are rather in good agreement, despite a difference in motion.
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Quoting melwerle:
I haven't felt any aftershocks for a day or so. Sometimes it's hard to decipher an aftershock with a truck going by or the washing machine on spin. About two weeks ago we had something that I grabbed the dogs and told the kids to run outside...turns out it was a double sonic boom....


Glad all is well for now! Enjoy. I'm jealous. And I've stopped looking at the temp...it will be below freezing for awhile. At least the winds have died down. Anyway, no flea worries for awhile.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting Chucktown:
All the zone forecasts from the NWS are computer generated based on the specific model that particular shift decides to use. The only "human" products from any NWS office are discussions, warnings, watches, and specific event reports. All PFM's (point forecast matrices) are sent out based on the topography and terrain of that certain area along with the model of choice (sometimes may be a blend of NAM/GFS/European etc.) These hour by hour forecasts can be found anywhere within your WFO. Thats why you can just "click" on any area on the home page of a particular WFO and get an instant forecast. All WFO's have these PFM's for selected cities and towns and are available to the public.


Thanks for the info, I didn't know that.
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Quoting LongStrangeTrip:


LOL...birthday? What birthday?? It's the 21st anniversary of my 29th birthday...and as of this morning, I'm afraid I'm not handling it very well. :-/

Hehe. I've been doing the same for a few years now...

My anniversary of my 29th B-day is coming up on the 11th.
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Quoting btwntx08:
sleet again still for me :0


You are gonna get it!! Snow/sleet that is!!Lions, tigers, bears and sleet, oh my!! Lions, tigers, bears and sleet, oh my!!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


He has retired from the Blog, he has a child due soon, and he has reevaluated his priority's :)

Correctly I might add :)


I'm happy for him. I'll miss his expertise during the hurricane season.
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All the zone forecasts from the NWS are computer generated based on the specific model that particular shift decides to use. The only "human" products from any NWS office are discussions, warnings, watches, and specific event reports. All PFM's (point forecast matrices) are sent out based on the topography and terrain of that certain area along with the model of choice (sometimes may be a blend of NAM/GFS/European etc.) These hour by hour forecasts can be found anywhere within your WFO. Thats why you can just "click" on any area on the home page of a particular WFO and get an instant forecast. All WFO's have these PFM's for selected cities and towns and are available to the public.
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Good Morning Flood! Good to see ya. How's the back?
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Quoting melwerle:
Another beautiful day here in San Diego...LOVE it.



Niiiice...another country heard from...LOL

Howdy Mel!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
111. Booooo. Guess I better dust off the pump for the backyard flooding then. (yet another problem we've discovered with the house.)
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Our local mets are being way to conservative I think. For example they had our high today at 45. We started out at 41 and now we are down to 39 degrees with a dew point of 17.
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Its 31 degrees and snowing here in Monroe i'm outside and the snowflakes are flying pass my screen :)
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I haven't felt any aftershocks for a day or so. Sometimes it's hard to decipher an aftershock with a truck going by or the washing machine on spin. About two weeks ago we had something that I grabbed the dogs and told the kids to run outside...turns out it was a double sonic boom....
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Quoting melwerle:
Another beautiful day here in San Diego...LOVE it.



Enjoy, dear, enjoy! The weather pattern change will bring you plenty of rain in about 10 days :0).
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Quoting melwerle:
Another beautiful day here in San Diego...LOVE it.


YAWN.

Got after-shocks?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
107. Ha, ha, ha! If it doesn't have the New Orleans Saints colors and logo, don't do it :0)!

If xcool lived in Dallas, TX the silver and blue would be appropriate.
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Another beautiful day here in San Diego...LOVE it.

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xcool had a new baby on Christmas! A boy, right? somebody, remind me.

Is a silver baby to-go-cup an appropriate gift for a New Orleans newborn??
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Hey Flood!! I am surprised, David Finfrock is being "conservative". I wish Harold Taft was still alive, he could really give an accurate weather forecast. Taft was a WWII met.

Oh, by the way, has Larry Mowery taken off his suit jacket yet? If he has, WATCH OUT, it might be near 5F..
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Quoting NRAamy:
Where is 456 anyway?

like I've said...he's hiding...because 7 8 9.....

;)


He has "retired" from the blog, new baby on the way..
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Quoting Bordonaro:


NWS Forecast for: 3 Miles SE Grapevine TX
Issued by: National Weather Service Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Last Update: 10:50 am CST Jan 4, 2010



Special Weather Statement

This Afternoon: Partly sunny, with a high near 37. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. North northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. East wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. South southeast wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 50. South southeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Windy, with a east southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 29. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday: Sunny and cold, with a high near 29. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 14.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 38.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 49.


IF what i highlighted will be rain....freezing rain it will be....what a mess that would be...OUCH!
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101

Those are the real mets...I'm talking about Finfrock and that bunch
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Reached our high of 24.1 Temps are slowly falling now here in Gatlinburg, TN. 60% chance of snow tonight and 50% tomorrow 1-5 inch accumulations.
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Quoting Floodman:


The local mets are being conservative; currently they call for 16 and 18F for Thursday and Friday respectively


NWS Forecast for: 3 Miles SE Grapevine TX
Issued by: National Weather Service Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Last Update: 10:50 am CST Jan 4, 2010



Special Weather Statement

This Afternoon: Partly sunny, with a high near 37. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. North northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. East wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. South southeast wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 50. South southeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Windy, with a east southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 29. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday: Sunny and cold, with a high near 29. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 14.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 38.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 49.
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Quoting LongStrangeTrip:


LOL...birthday? What birthday?? It's the 21st anniversary of my 29th birthday...and as of this morning, I'm afraid I'm not handling it very well. :-/


Believe me -- you will feel SO much better the very next day after that particular birthday!

Besides, you're just a few days older than Patrap...and way prettier... all's well and as it should be.

TornadoDude is all of 19 on Jan. 9. Is he even legally allowed to be here w/out parental controls?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
I am telling you all right now.....if this much lift occurs from a developing low in the NW GOM combined with that cold of temp to the North, just to the north of that low could see several inches of snow.....this is looking like a very large event shaping up for the Norhern Gulf States......JUST MY OPINION!

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Where is 456 anyway?

like I've said...he's hiding...because 7 8 9.....

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting Bordonaro:
#84 RitaEvac.

IF the core of the 1052-1055MB Siberian/Arctic High pushes the coldest air over TX, the low temps may approach 5-10F for lows in the DFW,TX area.

And the 15-22F range for all the Houston, TX Metro Areas.

The DFW NWS mets are being conservative right now, calling for 14-15 as the coldest temps. The GFS computer models also push the coldest air off just to the east of TX, due to the upper level flow.


The local mets are being conservative; currently they call for 16 and 18F for Thursday and Friday respectively
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922

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Okay, per Wiki, here it is, the worst recorded snowfall for Florida in the modern era (there was a 5" fall reported near Jacksonville in 1797)

January 17, 1977: The pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the Mississippi Valley and a Nor'easter over Atlantic Canada sends very cold temperatures southward into the state. Areas around Pensacola are the first to receive the snow. Then the rest of The Panhandle. Followed by record accumulations for The Nature Coast, The I-4 corridor(both Orlando and Tampa receive 6" accumulations), and finally reaches South Florida. By early on January 19, West Palm Beach reported snow for the first time on record, with snow flurries reaching as far south as Homestead. The snow causes little impact as it was of the dry variety, though the accompanying cold air results in hundreds of millions of dollars in damage(Orlando tied the 1899 record of over six consecutive nights well-below freezing). On January 20, the Miami Herald reports the event as the front page story, with a headline of a size usually reserved for the declaration of war.[11]
Late January, 1977: Pensacola receives snowfall.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
#84 RitaEvac.

IF the core of the 1052-1055MB Siberian/Arctic High pushes the coldest air over TX, the low temps may approach 5-10F for lows in the DFW,TX area.

And the 15-22F range for all the Houston, TX Metro Areas.

The DFW NWS mets are being conservative right now, calling for 14-15 as the coldest temps. The GFS computer models also push the coldest air off just to the east of TX, due to the upper level flow. However, the ECMWF models are pushing the colder air further west, this will be interesting!!
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have a slight chance of snow flurries Thursday night!
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Tonite might be interesting!
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The ECMWF once again looks to be the coldest with a sharper trough funneling down cold air.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Where is 456 anyway?


He has retired from the Blog, he has a child due soon, and he has reevaluated his priority's :)

Correctly I might add :)
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BeachFoxx is not going to be a happy camper:)

DESTIN FL

Forecast for Coastal Okaloosa
Updated: 11:28 am CST on January 4, 2010
Hard freeze warning in effect from 8 PM this evening to 9 am CST Tuesday..


Thursday Night
Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow in the evening...then slight chance of snow after midnight. Lows 25 to 30. Chance of snow 30 percent.
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ECMWF 850mb temperature:



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Quoting Drakoen:
Looking at the ECMWF and the GFS I would say that this cold period should continue for the east into mid next week at least. The plains region will begin to warm up mid next week as positive height anomalies advect eastward and then the east later. This matches up well with the AO forecast.


...hope springs eternal...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting Drakoen:
Looking at the ECMWF and the GFS I would say that this cold period should continue for the east into mid next week at least. The plains region will begin to warm up mid next week as positive height anomalies advect eastward and then the east later. This matches up well with the AO forecast.


That is a good little analysis Drak. I agree with this assessment. I think we will see a pattern change and a break in this extreme cold in the Eastern CONUS by 01/15/10.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO.. of the three you did pick.. only 1 (StormW) is a pro...

Love to see what kind of observations Weather456 would have made of this weather.


Where is 456 anyway?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.