A quiet 2009 for natural disasters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:35 PM GMT on January 04, 2010

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It was a relatively quiet year globally for natural disasters in 2009. According to Munich Re insurance company, the death toll from 2009 natural disasters was approximately 10,000, well below the average 75,000 deaths per year seen over the decade of the 2000s. Damage from 2009 natural disasters was about $50 billion, compared to the decadal average of $115 billion, and far below the $200 billion in destruction wrought by 2008's natural disasters. The most costly disaster of 2009 was Winter Storm Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, causing $5.1 billion in damage. The deadliest weather-related disaster was Category 2 Typhoon Ketsana, which killed 694 people in the Philippines and Southeast Asia. Category 2 Typhoon Morakot was a close second, with 614 fatalities, primarily in Taiwan. The deadliest natural disaster overall was the magnitude 7.6 earthquake that shook the Indonesian island of Sumatra on 30 September, killing nearly 1,200 people.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.

I'll be back Tuesday with my selection for the top global weather event of 2009: the Horn of Africa drought.

Jeff Masters

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Dan, what do think the chances are of snow here in Pensacola on Thursday?
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NVM, in there twice, but not together:

KVQQ 042250Z 27004KT 7SM FU SCT015 05/M09 A3007 FU SCT015
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Maybe it was all the penguins building a fire to stay warm?

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting sullivanweather:
Jacksonville, Cecil Field Airport
Lat: 30.22 Lon: -81.88 Elev: 89
Last Update on Jan 4, 5:50 pm EST

Smoke Smoke

41 °F
(5 °C)
Humidity: 36 %
Wind Speed: W 5 MPH
Barometer: 30.07"
Dewpoint: 16 °F (-9 °C)
Wind Chill: 38 °F (3 °C)
Visibility: 7.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:


Interesting ob from Jacksonville. I never saw 'smoke smoke' being reported before.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=FLZ023&zflg=1


4-character comment to fill the space?
(FUFU)
FU stands for smoke
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Jacksonville, Cecil Field Airport
Lat: 30.22 Lon: -81.88 Elev: 89
Last Update on Jan 4, 5:50 pm EST

Smoke Smoke

41 °F
(5 °C)
Humidity: 36 %
Wind Speed: W 5 MPH
Barometer: 30.07"
Dewpoint: 16 °F (-9 °C)
Wind Chill: 38 °F (3 °C)
Visibility: 7.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:


Interesting ob from Jacksonville. I never saw 'smoke smoke' being reported before.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=FLZ023&zflg=1
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Quoting aquak9:


no joke, keeper...I only blog on a screen porch...


That's kinda neat, I don't have an enclosed patio for that.

By the way, this cat was driving on black ice! Poor kittie!

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
That was quick.

Passing 33 F already at my location:

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting aquak9:


no joke, keeper...I only blog on a screen porch...
well then i guess you could say your one cool blogger
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
Quoting tampahurricane:
local fox 13 news for the Tampa bay area said we could get some flurries later tonight?


No mention of flurries on their weather page
Link
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
fla blogger on his computer


Gosh ur pretty sneaky.. that was pretty quick of u to put that up of me.. haha
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
fla blogger on his computer


Oh man, thought I had turned my webcam off.
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And I have been laughing at GFS...

I want to say that GFS has been calling for snow on Jan 7 starting on about Dec 28, or so.

We'll see if it happens then I'll have to go back and see how far in advance it called that. Snow along the Gulf coast is always rather tenuous. Barely happens if it does. A 10 day lead for a real event would be astounding.

BUT, has GFS become to snow in the south what CMC used to be for cyclogenesis? LOL.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
fla blogger on his computer



no joke, keeper...I only blog on a screen porch...
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Quoting atmoaggie:


Usually.

Right now, according to that map of the dewpoints, there are a lot of dewpoints in the teens in FL. Very few teens along the Pacific coast...


Yea 17 as dew point for us is real low, even at this time of year.
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10-day forecast. Possible record lows:

Local Text Forecast for
West Palm Beach, FL

Jan 4 Tonight
A few passing clouds. Cold. Low 37F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph.
Jan 5 Tomorrow
A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny. High 58F. Winds NW at 20 to 30 mph.
Jan 5 Tomorrow night
Clear skies. Near record low temperatures. Low 31F. Winds NW at 10 to 20 mph.
Jan 6 Wednesday
Sunshine. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the mid 30s.
Jan 7 Thursday
Plenty of sun. Highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 50s.
Jan 8 Friday
Mostly cloudy, chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s and lows in the low 40s.
Jan 9 Saturday
Occasional showers possible. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the upper 30s.
Jan 10 Sunday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the upper 40s.
Jan 11 Monday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 50s.
Jan 12 Tuesday
More clouds than sun. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Jan 13 Wednesday
Morning clouds followed by afternoon sun. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
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fla blogger on his computer

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
local fox 13 news for the Tampa bay area said we could get some flurries later tonight?
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Quoting PcolaDan:


It's the humidity. :)


Usually.

Right now, according to that map of the dewpoints, there are a lot of dewpoints in the teens in FL. Very few teens along the Pacific coast...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Rain switching to snow leading up to a Thursday afternoon rush hour in the deep south anyone?
Thankfully it does look like it will be above freezing until most are home...
(Could be very nasty, regardless)

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting zebralove:
I really have to say this arctic blast is what I moved to Florida to AVOID. More than likely I was ignorant in thinking Florida had no winter, seeing as how I am colder today than any of the years I lived in Washington state just 20 miles from the Canadian border. BBRRRRR Where is the heat and the sun I came here for????


It's the humidity. :)
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Excuse me, will someone please pass the electric blanket, PLEASE??


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
401 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

.DISCUSSION...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. COLD TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT AS
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY FROPA SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES BEGINNING NEAR 1 AM THURSDAY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND 4 AM AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
7 AM. NAM SUGGESTED SLOWER TIMING BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE CENTRAL
PLANS HIGH AND ARCTIC NATURE OF THE FRONT LEADS TO INCREASED
CONFIDENCE OF LITTLE TO NO SLOW DOWN OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS.

LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT BUT ANY WINTER PRECIP
WILL BE HARD TO COME BY DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AND THEREFORE NO
MENTION OF THIS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. VERY COLD...POTENTIALLY
NEAR RECORD...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE AREA
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER FOR MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
ON FRIDAY IN THE WEST AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. VERY
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NO
ACCUMULATIONS OR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting zebralove:
I really have to say this arctic blast is what I moved to Florida to AVOID. More than likely I was ignorant in thinking Florida had no winter, seeing as how I am colder today than any of the years I lived in Washington state just 20 miles from the Canadian border. BBRRRRR Where is the heat and the sun I came here for????

its playing hide and seek with us.. haha right now we cant find the warmth yet.. :P
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
I really have to say this arctic blast is what I moved to Florida to AVOID. More than likely I was ignorant in thinking Florida had no winter, seeing as how I am colder today than any of the years I lived in Washington state just 20 miles from the Canadian border. BBRRRRR Where is the heat and the sun I came here for????
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Hello!!! cold air!!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting jeffs713:

One thing I find interesting is that this arctic blast is setting up to be double-barreled. The first blast is directed towards the southeast and FL, while the second blast looks to be directed more to the west, towards Texas and Lousisana.


Yes, it is. The first portion of the Arctic air has been in place over the SE US, Midwest/Northern and Central Plains for several day.

The second batch is gonna freeze the S Plains and Deep South.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

Possibly sum moisture later? maybe someone gets sum flurries..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
10 to 15 knots would keep us warmer than points east tonight if it persists (likely will lay down some, but not all the way)


(Click for, well, you know)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Arctic Blast for Dallas-Ft Worth, TX. Our normal low is 34F, normal high 54F:



Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Windy, with a north northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to between 25 and 30 mph. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and cold, with a steady temperature around 26. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. North wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Friday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 25. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 13. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.


Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 38.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 22.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 49.

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:


Possible freezes for interior Dade/Broward Counties, and lows near 35F in downtown Miami Beach, FL later this week. You KNOW it's cold when you see a penguin carrying firewood on a sleigh!



See this lovely link, about your worst cool snap in 15 to 25 years:

Link

Friday 1-8-10, it may be +12F in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX.

One thing I find interesting is that this arctic blast is setting up to be double-barreled. The first blast is directed towards the southeast and FL, while the second blast looks to be directed more to the west, towards Texas and Lousisana.
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We will prolly hit that dewpoint and have some frost to clear in the morn...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Hey folks:

Update time!

My http://www.1kwordaday.blogspot.com 1,000 Word-A-Day challenge is 12 days in (over 12,000 words) and our first project "Chasers" is already up to Chapter 4. Pretty cool! (PS: Chasers involves hurricanes!)

My 2nd project, the 12-part original YouTube series "Landfall," is set for release on May 20, 2010. One show a day will be released. The finale will be released on May 31st. The next day, you know what begins! :)

Later!

Oz---
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3918
Quoting Bordonaro:


Possible freezes for interior Dade/Broward Counties, and lows near 35F in downtown Miami Beach, FL later this week. You KNOW it's cold when you see a penguin carrying firewood on a sleigh!



See this lovely link, about your worst cool snap in 15 to 25 years:

Link

Freeze Watch for your area through WE 1-6-10, LINK:
Link

Friday 1-8-10, it may be 12F in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX.


That is some stretch. I think it will be a long cold week. Keep those penguins coming. LOL
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As of 45 minutes ago, Jackson, Mississippi colder than parts of Montana and Wyoming, according to this hourly temp analysis...


(Click for full size)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA -
347 PM EST MON JAN 4 2010

...IT IS GOING TO SNOW AND PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE DELERIOUSLY EXCITED ABOUT IT AND MAKE SNOW ANGELS AND ROMP AROUND IN IT LIKE NUTCAKES AND DRIVE IN IT AND SKID INTO EACH OTHERE WITH TOTAL ABANDON...

.COLD AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-051400-
/O.NEW.KTBW.WC.Y.0003.100105T0400Z-100105T1400Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
347 PM EST MON JAN 4 2010

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This is Fox Tampa's Live link... Link
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Quoting Grothar:


How cold did it get by you? I haven't been on in a while!! When I saw Bord posting those penguins, I knew something was up.


27.9 at my house. Talking maybe 18 tonight, but cloud cover right now. But already 38.8 at 1630 hrs, so going to be a cold one.
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Quoting Grothar:


How cold did it get by you? I haven't been on in a while!! When I saw Bord posting those penguins, I knew something was up.


Possible freezes for interior Dade/Broward Counties, and lows near 35F in downtown Miami Beach, FL later this week. You KNOW it's cold when you see a penguin carrying firewood on a sleigh!



See this lovely link, about your worst cool snap in 15 to 25 years:

Link

Freeze Watch for your area through WE 1-6-10, LINK:
Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Higher dewpoints along the west coast than anywhere along the Gulf (US, anyway), including Key West:


(Click for full size)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:

mets r slowly agreeing with sum of the models.. I expect by wednesday that they will put winter watches up for the south or maybe a day sooner.. just my opinion.. any takers.. lol
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133

mets r slowly agree with sum of the models.. I expect by wednesday that they will put winter watches up for the south or maybe a day sooner.. just my opinion.. any takers.. lol
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting Floodman:


I was there Christmas '04; Northshore so we didn't get quite what you got on the other side of the Lake. Imagine the Causeway with 2" of snow...be pluckin' Cajuns out da lake
Hello Floodman, Hope your New Year was good. Hows the back?
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Quoting PcolaDan:




And here I was thinking of digging out the old snowmobile suit.


How cold did it get by you? I haven't been on in a while!! When I saw Bord posting those penguins, I knew something was up.
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Quoting Floodman:


LMAO...where does he get his weather news?


I think we up here in the panhandle should challenge S FL to a football game.

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theres a good chance there might b some moisture left tonight for the south and someone might get a flurry or two.. but dont count on gettin any 1 to 3inches lol.. but i will check it out soon..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Here's my inland Palm Beach County forecast:

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 52. Wind chill values as low as 27 early. Breezy, with a north wind between 9 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 29. North wind around 6 mph becoming calm.
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Quoting Floodman:


LMAO...where does he get his weather news?


The squirrels I believe. I guess he saw them wearing fur coats and decided something was up.
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Quoting Grothar:


I have a feeling it is really going to get cold here in Ft. Lauderdale. Just took a picture of a gecko passing my window. LOL.


LMAO...where does he get his weather news?
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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Quoting Grothar:


I have a feeling it is really going to get cold here in Ft. Lauderdale. Just took a picture of a gecko passing my window. LOL.




And here I was thinking of digging out the old snowmobile suit.
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Fox 13 Paul Delagado in Tampa just said a slight chance of a flurry in the N Peninsula of Fl tonight as the disturbance over Al swings S and picks up some Gulf moisture...any Tampa bloggers see that...?
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I have a feeling it is really going to get cold here in Ft. Lauderdale. Just took a picture of a gecko passing my window. LOL.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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