The Lost Hurricane/Typhoon Hunters VI: Typhoon Bess, October 12th, 1974

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on December 28, 2009

Share this Blog
3
+

It's getting to be the end of the year, and its time to conclude the 6-part series I began earlier this year honoring the memory of the hurricane and typhoon hunter missions that never returned to base. I've made a permanent link to the series on the "Articles of Interest" section of our tropical/hurricane page.

The most recent recent loss of a Hurricane Hunter flight came on October 12, 1974. An Air Force WC-130H (tail number 65-0965, call sign Swan 38), from the 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron based at Anderson AFB, Guam, was lost in the South China Sea while flying Category 1 Typhoon Bess. Bess had formed east of the Philippines on October 8, then passed over northern Luzon Island on the 11th, triggering flooding and landslides that killed 29 people and caused $9 million in damage. On the 12th, Bess emerged over the South China Sea as a minimal Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds, and "Swan 38" was sent out to provide reconnaissance information. The aircraft had only recently arrived at the 54th WRS after having been converted to WC-130H, and had previously spent eight years assigned to combat rescue as an HC-130H. Swan 38 departed Clark Air Base in the Philippines, and successfully completed its first penetration and most of an "Alpha pattern" peripheral track. They were preparing for their second penetration, on the north side of the storm about 400 miles northwest of Clark AFB, when the last radio contact came at about 2200. An investigation board later speculated the crew was on the final leg inbound to make a second fix when they encountered some catastrophic problem. No emergency communications were received. Four days of relentless searching by rescue aircraft and two surface ships proved unsuccessful, and the six crewmen were declared missing and presumed dead. The name "Bess" was retired from the active list of typhoon names as a result of the loss, and the call sign "Swan 38" was also retired. A plaque honoring the crew was affixed to the squadron building at Andersen AFB (the plaque was removed when the 54th closed in 1987, and it's whereabouts are currently unknown). The crew members, carried on AWS rolls as Killed In Action, were:

Capt Edward R. Bushnell
1Lt Gary W. Crass
1Lt Michael P. O'Brien
1Lt Timothy J. Hoffman
TSgt Kenneth G. Suhr
Sgt Detlef W. Ringler


Figure 1. Above: plaque dedicated to the crew of Swan 38 (WC-130H 65-0965), located at Kirtland AFB. Inset image, top left: Swan 38 during an engine-running crew change at Guam in 1974. Image credit: Tom Robison.

Sources: Air Reconnaissance Weather Association May 2008 Newsletter; New York Times 13 Oct 1974 58:1; http://www.awra.us/WhiskeyCharlie.html by Tom Robison, 1974 Annual Typhoon report of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Other notes:
The Air Force has had 24 weather reconnaissance missions that have resulted in loss of life; only three of these were typhoon flights. A full list of the missions is at the Air Weather Reconnaissance Association web site.

Special addendum: a Cold War mystery
September 10, 1956: An Air Force RB-50G Superfortress flying in the vicinity of Typhoon Emma was lost over the Sea of Japan. This was not a typhoon hunting aircraft, as is often reported. The aircraft was stationed at Yokota Air Base, Japan, and assigned to the 41st Air Division, 5th Air Force, and was performing electronic of photographic intelligence of the Soviet Union, North Korea, and China. The military gave out a "cover story" saying that the aircraft was lost performing weather reconnaissance. From Bernie Barris of the Air Reconnaissance Weather Association, "This aircraft was NOT lost in a typhoon penetration, nor was it shot down by the Soviets, as was often speculated. It was an RB-50G on a Strategic Reconnaissance mission. Everything I've read is that they were on the fringes of the typhoon, but more than likely the plane was lost due to mechanical problems, which plagued the B-50 in the 1950's. The typhoon did impact search efforts. The Soviets never released any records of tracking or attacking this flight; it is one of those true Cold War mysteries."


Figure 2. A Popular Mechanics cover story from 1950 dramatized the dangers that the early typhoon hunters faced. From the article: "It is impossible for me to describe accurately or exaggerate the severity of the turbulence we encountered. To some it may sound utterly fantastic, but to me it was a flight for life. I have flown many weather missions in my 30 months with the 514th Reconnaissance Squadron. I have flown night combat missions in rough weather out of England, and I have instructed instrument flying in the States, but never have I dreamed of such turbulence as we encountered in Typhoon Beverly. It is amazing to me the ship held together as it did."

Next post
My final post of the year will be on Wednesday or Thursday. I plan to present my pick for the top U.S. weather story of 2009.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 788 - 738

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

788. IKE
Quoting IKE:


It ain't happening.


Or is it?....if it does....crow me baby...

New Orleans extended....

"LONG TERM...
A STRONG POLAR AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
MOVE EAST. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT TIMING PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW
IS GOING TO MEAN EVERYTHING WITH THE FCAST STARTING THE NEW WEEK.
HAVE SET A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING TO MAINLY SHOW CONSISTENCY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG WITH
THIS SYSTEM ATTM AND GLOBAL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
REGARDS TO MASS FIELDS. WE DO NOT WANT TO GO ANY HIGHER AT THIS
POINT WITH POP NUMBERS DUE TO THE SHIFTING FROM VERY DRY IN ONE
RUN TO SNOW STORM IN ANOTHER. THIS SCENARIO WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE
TO BE EVALUATED FURTHER AS WE APPROACH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FCAST."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
787. IKE
From the Mobile,AL. extended discussion....

"BY MIDDAY FRI MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OF THE CWFA MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRI AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN USHERS ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES FRI AFT THROUGH SUN BECOMING REINFORCED BY MORE COLD AIR TO
THE NORTH LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LARGE ARCTIC AIRMASS
MOVES SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF MAIN TROF OFF THE EAST COAST. TO THE
SOUTH THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH WAS NOTED BY
EARLIER MODEL RUNS NOW LOOKS TO BE NOTHING BUT A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH DAMPING QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT UPON THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES RESULTING IN MAYBE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO EARLY MON MOSTLY INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST INITIALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST BY MON EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE FIRST HARD FREEZE FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA TUE AND WED MORNING. THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK ALSO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS. AS
FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED PDS...BASICALLY LOADED THE CURRENT 00Z MOS
GUIDE AND TWEAKED IT DOWNWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEK."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
786. IKE
Quoting aquak9:


gotta love TampaSpin...


It ain't happening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hello GTcoolie. If you are that cold, it will be arctic here where i am.

Ike! where are you this morning? need someone to douse this cold-weather foolishness with some hot air!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25766
accuweather forecasts rain with a temperature of 39 next wed. for my area. Of course the outlining areas such as new port richey, tampa, and brooksville will be near freezing. This is def. getting interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
Without truly sticking my neck out too far but, my best guess would be the Gulf Coast States from Louisiana to the East Atlantic Coast could be in for a wild Snow Storm next week. Nothern Florida could see some very significant snow fall amounts if that cold air gets in place that the models are showing.


gotta love TampaSpin...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25766
Bushfires may have claimed 40 homes





UP to 40 homes may have been lost in the Toodyay fire as authorities assess damage to the West Australian wheatbelt town, north-east of Perth.

A fire, which started at lunchtime (WST) yesterday, raged through the small community 80km from Perth, burning almost 3000ha of land.

Fire and Emergency Services Authority spokesman Allen Gale said the extent of the damage was yet to be realised.

"We can confirm that 20 homes have been lost, but early indications of people moving through the area is that the number could double," Mr Gale said.

"House after house has been destroyed, in a line, and there are still pockets where the fire is still burning."

Three firefighters have received medical treatment for smoke inhalation and dehydration.

FESA said it was thought a resident from the Toodyay area was receiving treatment for burns at Royal Perth Hospital.
Electricity and communication to the area was being restored after power poles and lines were damaged by the fire.

Western Power has turned off electricity in some areas to make it safer for firefighters.

Four water-bombing helicopters and hundreds of firefighters spent the night trying to control the blaze, as strong winds fanned flames which reached up to two metres high.

Homes in Majestica Waters, Lozanda Heights, Vernon Hills, Nottingham Road, Sherwood Road, Folewood Road, Drummondi Drive, Adenanthus Road and Stirlingia Drive have been affected by the fire.

There is no access to the fire zone.

Residents took refuge at the local caravan park, recreation centre and at the Northam hospital and school.

Mr Gale said the reality of the devastation was starting to sink in.

"There's a lot of shock for the people right now," he said.

"The people directly affected by the fire, obviously, want to get back to their properties, but the area is very unsafe.

"There's trees on roads, smouldering, and others are threatening to fall down.

"It's a mess out there, but people in town are helping and wanting to offer assistance, which is great."

Mr Gale said that at this stage the fire was not being treated as suspicious.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
781. XLR8
#777 yep that sure is a lot of words...I will keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best. Any way (Happy New Years!!!) to every one on here my hubby works off shore and I follow you all through the summer. You all are so much help with keeping me from going crazy when it gets crazy out there!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:


Not to disappoint you, the odds are less than 5% of you seeing snow. However, you may have a pretty good freeze by the mid-end of next week!



A strong cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area on New Years Eve. Best rain chances will be from the Tampa Bay area northward through midnight, then south of Tampa Bay after midnight. Much colder air will move in behind the front for the weekend with some freezing temperatures possible each morning mainly north of Tampa Bay. Temperatures between Friday night and Monday will average 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Tuesday will begin to warm up but still be below normal.
Thank You Bordonero for your analysis and for providing that chart. I knew the odds of it snowing down here are pretty slim. I guess what TampaSpin was saying earlier is you would have to get an extended period of cold weather and a disturbance to form along the jet stream in the Gulf and track to the west coast of FL. now what I don't know is whould it have to track south of the area or north?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:


Not to disappoint you, the odds are less than 5% of you seeing snow. However, you may have a pretty good freeze by the mid-end of next week!



A strong cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area on New Years Eve. Best rain chances will be from the Tampa Bay area northward through midnight, then south of Tampa Bay after midnight. Much colder air will move in behind the front for the weekend with some freezing temperatures possible each morning mainly north of Tampa Bay. Temperatures between Friday night and Monday will average 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Tuesday will begin to warm up but still be below normal.


But after that Florida very well may see a lot of all-time records shattered(I never seen models predict this much cold consistently for it to not happen:))!

Now the million dollar questian is will a southern streamer get into the Gulf(or better yest the Bahamas) and cause a rare snow event for The Florida Peninsula? Or will it just be a bone dry cold event throughout?

I wouldn't doubt if highs in Orlando don't get out of the mid-30's(despite full sunshine) sometime next week(ouch)!

Since Central Florida sees dry cold air(for the most part) from arctic intrusions, 5% seems about right(though again if models continue to indicate something in the southern GOM, we may very likely up that percentage).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hello, I hope everyone had a wonderful christmas. And now to the weather: I have been reading what some of your have posted about a potential siberian polar express that could affect 2/3 of the eastern seaboard, so I want to know what may be the chances of FL (specifically) the Tampa Bay area has of seeing any snow? I actually live not too far from Indian Rocks Beach.


Not to disappoint you, the odds are less than 5% of you seeing snow. However, you may have a pretty good freeze by the mid-end of next week!



A strong cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area on New Years Eve. Best rain chances will be from the Tampa Bay area northward through midnight, then south of Tampa Bay after midnight. Much colder air will move in behind the front for the weekend with some freezing temperatures possible each morning mainly north of Tampa Bay. Temperatures between Friday night and Monday will average 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Tuesday will begin to warm up but still be below normal.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting XLR8:
#774 Thanks it smowed here on the New years eve night of 2000 that was a heck of a night!! Would be nice to have some more at least have a snow day from work come Monday :0)


A portion of the Area Forecast Discussion out of WFO Jackson, MS. in a lot of words, they do not know yet!

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WRN CONUS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
AT SOME POINT FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION. MODELS ARE
VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN ON AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE AND INTENSITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT WHAT IS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST
IS THE STRENGTH OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE NE CONUS AND HOW MUCH
COLD AIR IT WILL FORCE SOUTHWARD TO MIX WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF TEMPERATURES AND LOW GUIDANCE POPS
FOR NOW...AND WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR R-/S- AT THIS POINT.
THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY THAT MODELS WILL TREND WARMER AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH RECENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE POLAR VORTEX SHOULD SUPPORT MORE OF TREND TOWARD A
COLDER SUPPRESSED SOLUTION IF ANYTHING.

THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHEN TRUE ARCTIC AIR MAY SURGE INTO THE
AREA...BUT THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
VERY COLD AIR WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS NEXT WEEK SHOULD THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF VERIFY. /EC/

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Hello, I hope everyone had a wonderful christmas. And now to the weather: I have been reading what some of your have posted about a potential siberian polar express that could affect 2/3 of the eastern seaboard, so I want to know what may be the chances of FL (specifically) the Tampa Bay area has of seeing any snow? I actually live not too far from Indian Rocks Beach.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
775. XLR8
#774 Thanks it smowed here on the New years eve night of 2000 that was a heck of a night!! Would be nice to have some more at least have a snow day from work come Monday :0)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting XLR8:
any one have a guess as to the snow chances for central Mississippi early next week. TIA


Still way too early to tell. The EMCWF and GFS models are "up in the air" about the development of a Gulf Coast Low. Will know more by 1-1-10. Checked the latest 00Z GFS forecast run, it keeps all the moisture over the GOM. Sorry :0(
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
KOG. Thanks for the update. Northern Canada is getting hammered! The $64,000 question for today is, "How much of that Siberian/Arctic airmass will penetrate the US, and when"?
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting btwntx08:
still it will be chilly though thnaks for everything bordonaro


You're welcome, enjoy your trip to H-town :0)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
From our Arlington, TX 12-29-09 snow :0)

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
HIGH ARCTIC FORECAST FOR NORTHERN CANADA

Blizzard warning in effect.

Tonight Blizzard. Wind north 70 km/h gusting to 90 diminishing to 50 gusting to 70 after midnight. Low minus 33. Wind chill minus 50. Wednesday Blizzard. Wind north 50 km/h gusting to 70. Temperature steady near minus 33. Wind chill minus 53. Wednesday night Blizzard. Wind north 40 km/h gusting to 60. Temperature steady near minus 34. Wind chill minus 54. Thursday Blizzard. Windy. High minus 36. Friday Clear. Low minus 36. High minus 26. Saturday Clear. Windy. Low minus 29. High minus 29.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
769. XLR8
any one have a guess as to the snow chances for central Mississippi early next week. TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blizzard warning for
Baker Lake continued

Severe blizzard continues to affect Kivalliq. Blizzard expected to continue until late Thursday most areas.

A low pressure system north of Southampton Island combined with a strong ridge of high pressure over the Northwest Territories continues to produce strong northwesterly winds over the Kivalliq region maintaining severe blizzard conditions throughout the area.

Northwesterly winds of 50 gusting to 70 or 80 km/h continue to give widespread near zero visibilities in blowing snow over most of the Kivalliq region. Rankin Inlet has now had 60 continuous hours of blizzard conditions since the blizzard began Sunday morning with zero visibility since 5 AM this morning.

Blizzard conditions are expected to continue over much of the Kivalliq region through Thursday before a general improvement Thursday night into Friday as lighter winds finally move in across the area. A break in the blizzard is likely over Rankin Inlet and Chesterfield Inlet Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as winds drop off in those areas. However blizzard conditions are expected to redevelop over those communities Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as northwest winds increase again.

Further north at Repulse Bay reports indicate that visibilities are starting to improve late today. Visibilities should continue to improve this evening and tonight as winds decrease. As a result the blizzard warning is ended for Repulse Bay.

The blizzard will be accompanied by temperatures around the minus 25cc mark with wind chill values of minus 40 to minus 45.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
764. xcool
bye all im go to bed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Xcool! Congrats on your new baby :0)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
762. jipmg
Quoting StormW:


True, however that is at 5,000ft. Take that and drag it to the surface warming it at 5.5F every 1,000 ft.


57? Seems kinda average for miami standards to me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

thanks for the advice i have everything looks like temps may be in the 30's i think


To start it eill be in the 30's and 40's a brief warm-up then another shot of cold air moves in!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
760. xcool
:0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

ok cool looking forward to what it brings around the 6th cause i'll be in houston on the 6th and 7th


Be sure you bring a warm coat, a sweater maybe wouldn't hurt to get a hat and some gloves.

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting bassis:
Any snow predictions for coastal southern New Hampshire


Looking at this map below, significant snow may fall over New England from 1-2-10 through 1-4-10. This big L off the coast may move westward torwards the coast, due to the huge Greenland blocking ridge of H pressure:


A snippet of the Area Forecast Discussion, Tauton, MA 4:37PM EST 12-29-09:

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING
FRI-SAT AT OR NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE ALONG WITH A TREND MORE
OFFSHORE. THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH ITS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ECMWF AND GGEM ARE MUCH
FARTHER EAST WITH SURFACE LOW BOMBING OVER EASTERN GEORGES BANK. THE
UKMET IS THE FARTHEST WEST.

THIS MAY BE AN EVENT WHERE DESPITE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE...ALL MODELS TAKE THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS
OR JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT /I.E. A NORLUN TYPE TROF/ TO PRODUCE A PLOWABLE
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN
THE MID LEVEL LOW CAPTURES AND PULLS THE OCEAN LOW WESTWARD TO JUST
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SYSTEM BECOMING A SLOW MOVING VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW. THIS WOULD RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW INTO THE
REGION...YIELDING IMPRESSIVE COMMA HEAD/TROWAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA SAT AND INTO SUN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE ON THE
DETAILS ON THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE INTERACTION/PHASING INCLUDING
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SURFACE LOW.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting btwntx08:
how cold will south tx will be next week


A lil too early to call it. The DFW area forecast is calling for temps about 10F below normal from 1-3-10 through 1-7-10. The ECMWF/GFS have agreed there will be an Arctic Incursion into the USA. Timing is up in the air, as both models haven't agreed on when/or exactly where the coldest air will be.

The time from 1-04-10 through 1-15-10 will be extremely interesting!! Looks like the best shot of Arctic air arrives from 1-6-10 through 1-9-10 for Texas.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Any snow predictions for coastal southern New Hampshire
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting unf97:
TampaSpin,

Fast moving disturbances along the southern branch of the jet stream are a gurantee during El Nino seasons that spawn these storm systems out of the GOM. This will continue all the way into the spring.

So, yes, now with the Arctic air coming down interacting with the active Southern stream, at some point, there could be a nasty winter storm that will really cause some havoc. It is all about timing as always. But, no question, these next couple of weeks are really going to be interesting to say the least for the Eastern 2/3 of CONUS.


That trough does not appear to be moving much for the next seven days once it gets in place late next week.....you are so correct..i don't see any way not to have a major Snow Storm in the SouthEast if that cold air pans out to be true and the models have been holding on to that for several runs now......but its still long term forecasting and things can change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


I posted above the 1000mb which is surface temps.......it will be plenty cold enough in the Northern Parts of Florida and possibly as far south as Orlando.


This is certainly some of the wildest weather I have seen in years! To see a trough affecting the deep South for 4-5 days is extremely unusual. This El Nino has caused the SW Sub-Tropical jet to be very, very poweful, ie. the 25" of rain near NOLA this month, the Midwest Blizzard in early Dec, the flooding rains in S FL in mid-Dec, the E Coast Pre-Christmas Storm, the Christmas Blizzard that brought Dallas-Ft Worth, TX near Blizzard conditions and 3" of snow. Next up is the New Years Day Snow event for New England taking shape for 1-1/2 through 1-4-10.

Behind that, we have an Arctic/Siberian air-mass invasion for the 1-3-10 through 1-13-10, affecting up to 2/3 rds of the US at one time!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
749. unf97
TampaSpin,

Fast moving disturbances along the southern branch of the jet stream are a gurantee during El Nino seasons that spawn these storm systems out of the GOM. This will continue all the way into the spring.

So, yes, now with the Arctic air coming down interacting with the active Southern stream, at some point, there could be a nasty winter storm that will really cause some havoc. It is all about timing as always. But, no question, these next couple of weeks are really going to be interesting to say the least for the Eastern 2/3 of CONUS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:
Not jumping on board with those temps for southern florida yet...It's definitely cold and wet. 850 mb is at 0 C over FLL with rain, but surface temps are way too high for snow. ANY chance of non-liquid precip would be well north of South Florida. The low pressure system would have to be way far to the south with very cold air already in place for anything other than rain in south Florida. North Florida could get some of it if the low forms as the GFS thinks it will.

Adrian


I posted above the 1000mb which is surface temps.......it will be plenty cold enough in the Northern Parts of Florida and possibly as far south as Orlando.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
747. jipmg
Quoting hurricane23:
Not jumping on board with those temps for southern florida yet...It's definitely cold and wet. 850 mb is at 0 C over FLL with rain, but surface temps are way too high for snow. ANY chance of non-liquid precip would be well north of South Florida. The low pressure system would have to be way far to the south with very cold air already in place for anything other than rain in south Florida. North Florida could get some of it if the low forms as the GFS thinks it will.

Adrian


0C is 32 though.. that is surely cold enough for snow, sure the surface temperature may be 35-37, but snow can't melt that fast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting unf97:
The model runs over the next 72 hours will tell the story with regards to whether or not the GOM Low will materialize next week. Even if it doesnlt materialize, one certainty though is that the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS is really going to get extremely cold over the next couple of weeks.

With the El Nino pattern and the massive cold outbreak coming into play, I think there will be a few other opportunities for significant winter storms to develop during the first couple of weeks in January.


I posted on my blog in the comments this morning that we could see some Gulf Coast Clippers........HOW FUNNY!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not jumping on board with those temps for southern florida yet...It's definitely cold and wet. 850 mb is at 0 C over FLL with rain, but surface temps are way too high for snow. ANY chance of non-liquid precip would be well north of South Florida. The low pressure system would have to be way far to the south with very cold air already in place for anything other than rain in south Florida. North Florida could get some of it if the low forms as the GFS thinks it will.

Adrian
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
744. unf97
The model runs over the next 72 hours will tell the story with regards to whether or not the GOM Low will materialize next week. Even if it doesnlt materialize, one certainty though is that the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS is really going to get extremely cold over the next couple of weeks.

With the El Nino pattern and the massive cold outbreak coming into play, I think there will be a few other opportunities for significant winter storms to develop during the first couple of weeks in January.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
743. jipmg
Oh my god at my spelling.. staying on the computer for hours is hurting my typing..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Without truly sticking my neck out too far but, my best guess would be the Gulf Coast States from Louisiana to the East Atlantic Coast could be in for a wild Snow Storm next week. Nothern Florida could see some very significant snow fall amounts if that cold air gets in place that the models are showing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
741. jipmg
Quoting TampaSpin:


Heck that trough sticks around for almost 5-7 days in the South....don't know i have ever really seen it stay in place that long before.


yep, early 7 day forecasts, showign 60s for highsi n miami, and lasting, with 40s for over night lows for consecutive days, usually we drop undre 70 for a day or two, then go back up to around 80
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:


What's even scarier is the GFSX 300MB forecast, setting up a long-wave trough from Maine to Arizona/New Mexico around 1-6 through 1-8-10.


Heck that trough sticks around for almost 5-7 days in the South....don't know i have ever really seen it stay in place that long before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jipmg:


how far down into florida?


Tallahassee maybe Orlando.....is possible! Its just long range model runs...but, there has now been several runs saying the same now....but i still need to get into into a 4-5 day window to have a lot of confidence!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 788 - 738

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
68 °F
Mostly Cloudy