The Lost Hurricane/Typhoon Hunters VI: Typhoon Bess, October 12th, 1974

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on December 28, 2009

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It's getting to be the end of the year, and its time to conclude the 6-part series I began earlier this year honoring the memory of the hurricane and typhoon hunter missions that never returned to base. I've made a permanent link to the series on the "Articles of Interest" section of our tropical/hurricane page.

The most recent recent loss of a Hurricane Hunter flight came on October 12, 1974. An Air Force WC-130H (tail number 65-0965, call sign Swan 38), from the 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron based at Anderson AFB, Guam, was lost in the South China Sea while flying Category 1 Typhoon Bess. Bess had formed east of the Philippines on October 8, then passed over northern Luzon Island on the 11th, triggering flooding and landslides that killed 29 people and caused $9 million in damage. On the 12th, Bess emerged over the South China Sea as a minimal Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds, and "Swan 38" was sent out to provide reconnaissance information. The aircraft had only recently arrived at the 54th WRS after having been converted to WC-130H, and had previously spent eight years assigned to combat rescue as an HC-130H. Swan 38 departed Clark Air Base in the Philippines, and successfully completed its first penetration and most of an "Alpha pattern" peripheral track. They were preparing for their second penetration, on the north side of the storm about 400 miles northwest of Clark AFB, when the last radio contact came at about 2200. An investigation board later speculated the crew was on the final leg inbound to make a second fix when they encountered some catastrophic problem. No emergency communications were received. Four days of relentless searching by rescue aircraft and two surface ships proved unsuccessful, and the six crewmen were declared missing and presumed dead. The name "Bess" was retired from the active list of typhoon names as a result of the loss, and the call sign "Swan 38" was also retired. A plaque honoring the crew was affixed to the squadron building at Andersen AFB (the plaque was removed when the 54th closed in 1987, and it's whereabouts are currently unknown). The crew members, carried on AWS rolls as Killed In Action, were:

Capt Edward R. Bushnell
1Lt Gary W. Crass
1Lt Michael P. O'Brien
1Lt Timothy J. Hoffman
TSgt Kenneth G. Suhr
Sgt Detlef W. Ringler


Figure 1. Above: plaque dedicated to the crew of Swan 38 (WC-130H 65-0965), located at Kirtland AFB. Inset image, top left: Swan 38 during an engine-running crew change at Guam in 1974. Image credit: Tom Robison.

Sources: Air Reconnaissance Weather Association May 2008 Newsletter; New York Times 13 Oct 1974 58:1; http://www.awra.us/WhiskeyCharlie.html by Tom Robison, 1974 Annual Typhoon report of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Other notes:
The Air Force has had 24 weather reconnaissance missions that have resulted in loss of life; only three of these were typhoon flights. A full list of the missions is at the Air Weather Reconnaissance Association web site.

Special addendum: a Cold War mystery
September 10, 1956: An Air Force RB-50G Superfortress flying in the vicinity of Typhoon Emma was lost over the Sea of Japan. This was not a typhoon hunting aircraft, as is often reported. The aircraft was stationed at Yokota Air Base, Japan, and assigned to the 41st Air Division, 5th Air Force, and was performing electronic of photographic intelligence of the Soviet Union, North Korea, and China. The military gave out a "cover story" saying that the aircraft was lost performing weather reconnaissance. From Bernie Barris of the Air Reconnaissance Weather Association, "This aircraft was NOT lost in a typhoon penetration, nor was it shot down by the Soviets, as was often speculated. It was an RB-50G on a Strategic Reconnaissance mission. Everything I've read is that they were on the fringes of the typhoon, but more than likely the plane was lost due to mechanical problems, which plagued the B-50 in the 1950's. The typhoon did impact search efforts. The Soviets never released any records of tracking or attacking this flight; it is one of those true Cold War mysteries."


Figure 2. A Popular Mechanics cover story from 1950 dramatized the dangers that the early typhoon hunters faced. From the article: "It is impossible for me to describe accurately or exaggerate the severity of the turbulence we encountered. To some it may sound utterly fantastic, but to me it was a flight for life. I have flown many weather missions in my 30 months with the 514th Reconnaissance Squadron. I have flown night combat missions in rough weather out of England, and I have instructed instrument flying in the States, but never have I dreamed of such turbulence as we encountered in Typhoon Beverly. It is amazing to me the ship held together as it did."

Next post
My final post of the year will be on Wednesday or Thursday. I plan to present my pick for the top U.S. weather story of 2009.

Jeff Masters

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in the summer , i always walked on the white line,, lol.. in nc, not denver.. it was a dry cold,, in denver,, i think people do not realize that,, since im back in nc ,, its miserable when its 34 33 degrees and rain,, the only ice storm in denver , i can recall , a bus almost hit me. it slid into the bus stop on colfax,, i ran
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keeper, that's absolutely horrifying.
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Patrap, that was good news. Thanks for the update!!
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Just peeked into Northern Alaska's Area Forecast Discussion out of Fairbanks, AK. Their medium range computer models are all over the place. The discussion from earlier this morning had the Polar Vortex moving into the Canadian Archipelago and then retreating to the North. What a weird El Nino!!
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<
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now down to 23.7f chill 3.5f wind at 40kmh gusting to 70 kmh
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A quick update on the portlight mission of relief to our fellow wu-blogger who was in a family crisis.

Everything is going smoothly and the Family is getting the relief sent down as we speak with much more to follow as it comes in.

I want to take this opportunity to Thank everyone involved as well as all those who gave unselfishly as well.

Also a Special "Thank You" to Dr. Jeff Masters and the wunderground for allowing portlight to be the beacon of Hope in the Lives of many,and the indiviual in times of Natural,and sometime personal crisis as well.
Without this fine world-wide community, such efforts would not be possible.

Patrick
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Quoting gregpinehurstnc:
when i lived in denver co. off of colfax and corona,, i would walk barefoot across the street to get the rocky mountian news,, in snow , wet or what,, it was 19 steps , and btw ,, 26 minus was the coldest i have ever been in , denver , around christmas i think 1990.. those were the days, happy new years to all
You have insulated feet...Although when we were kids, we would walk on scorching hot pavement and not even blink. so it kinda works both ways, you get use to it.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

LATEST COND MY LOC
23.7F
5.7F CHILL
33.7KMH S
66.3KMH G


BRR, Winds 20MPH, gusting to 40MPH, glad I live in North Texas. I have the "gut feeling" this Polar Vortex will produce a widespead cold snap over the Eastern 2/3 rds of the USA, over the next 10-20 days!
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when i lived in denver co. off of colfax and corona,, i would walk barefoot across the street to get the rocky mountian news,, in snow , wet or what,, it was 19 steps , and btw ,, 26 minus was the coldest i have ever been in , denver , around christmas i think 1990.. those were the days, happy new years to all
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LATEST COND MY LOC
23.7F
5.7F CHILL
33.7KMH S
66.3KMH G
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re- 122

yeah I know, I know...the only time it gets cold enough here to snow, is when the humidity is about 20%...

:(
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Dinner! BBL.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
I wanna see a swath of 4-6 with 8 inch lollypops from Nawlins thru Mobile, Pensacola Tallahassee, Jax and up thru coastal Goergia!
Thats my goofy dream storm!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
Quoting mossyhead:
My wife grew up in MN. and she says anything above 0 was temperate.
Temperate? To me that,s like calling a tropical downpour"drizzle".lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Jacksonville NWS Discussion
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Ski trip to Colorado 3 years ago in Dec we had -10f on top of the mountain. I was in full ski gear with undergarments and and +5f at the base. full head protection.. I was quite comfortable. Gotta be dressed for it.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
gulf coast snow?

heh heh heh..bring it to Jacksonville, and well...ya'll know the rest.
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Can anyone post an ECMWF surface temp map for as far out as you can 1-4 or 1-5-10. This pattern mimics the 1976-77 severe cold outbreaks over the Eastern 2/3 rds of the USA. We may have a similar situation arising. We have the WFO San Fran, CA mentioning comparing this El Nino cycle to the 76-77 El Nino.

I now believe that we are going to see a major Siberian/Arctic outbreak in the lower 48, from 1/3/10-1/15/10. Just a gut feeling.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



LOL!
I don't practice any pagan rituals. I'm a christian but I thought it was kinda funny so I threw it out there. As for 2012. I don't buy it. If I did I'd probably apply for tons more credit and entertain my family and I in grand fashion for the next two years!
I too think we will posting here after 12/21/12..my post was an attempt at humor...Which by the way is thoroughly enjoyed by me when I read other humorous posts on this blog.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting hydrus:
a downright balmy -23 degrees.. lmao
My wife grew up in MN. and she says anything above 0 was temperate.
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This out of BIRMINGHAM NWS



SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE MID-WEK
PERIOD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDIACTES THAT THE MEASUREABLE
PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. BUT WE OFTEN GET SOME TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WELL
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN IN THESE TYPES OF OVERRUNNING
SITUATIONS. PLUS...GIVEN THE SETUP AND THE THERMAL PROFILES...I
STILL THINK THAT WE MAY HEAR OF A FEW LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLES OF SLEET
(SLINKLES?) 3 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 6 AM WEDNESDAY. BUT INDEED
MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN WILL COME THROUGH
DURING THE NOON TO MIDNIGHT PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY.

IT WAS GOOD TO SEE THIS MORNING THAT THE GFS HAD FINALLY BLINKED
IN ITS STARE DOWN CONTEST WITH THE OTHER MODELS...AND IT NOW
CONCEEDS THAT THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IN THIS SERIES WILL DO NOTHING
MORE THAN ENHANCE THE WRAPAROUND CLOUDIESS AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEPARTS TO OUR NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...WILL MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS THAT WE
HAVE IN THE FORECAST...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND LOOKS DOWNRIGHT CHILLY. AND
DEPENDING ON HOW THE DETAILS WORK OUT...OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT MAY EVEN BE TOO WARM.

VERY NICE DISCUSSION BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
FOLKS...REGARDING THE POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE GEM AGREEING (AT LEAST IN
PRINCIPLE) ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A GULF LOW WINTER STORM FOR OUR
AREA -- BAM...THE 12Z ECMWF THROUGHS A HEALTHY DOSE OF UNCERTAINTY
BACK INTO THE SALAD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
115. unf97
Quoting Bordonaro:


THIS time you may be RIGHT!! The EL Nino is acting like a La Nina, WFO San Fran said the AO was off the charts today. They're talking about continued ridging over the Western US, which mean a "mean, cold trough is going build over the Eastern 2/3 rds of the USA.


Yep. The models are definitely trending in this direction.

The Gulf Low scenario by the ECMWF for next week looks really intriguing!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting hydrus:
You should do it anyway...Dec-21.. 2012 is coming.



LOL!
I don't practice any pagan rituals. I'm a christian but I thought it was kinda funny so I threw it out there. As for 2012. I don't buy it. If I did I'd probably apply for tons more credit and entertain my family and I in grand fashion for the next two years!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
People E of the Mississippi, get ready for some probable record breaking cold, especially Florida.


Gulf Coast Snow!!! I'm mongering and wishcasting, heck I'd even sacrifice a chicken or a smallgoat if I thought it would help!


THIS time you may be RIGHT!! The EL Nino is acting like a La Nina, WFO San Fran said the AO was off the charts today. They're talking about continued ridging over the Western US, which mean a "mean, cold trough is going build over the Eastern 2/3 rds of the USA.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
People E of the Mississippi, get ready for some probable record breaking cold, especially Florida.


Gulf Coast Snow!!! I'm mongering and wishcasting, heck I'd even sacrifice a chicken or a smallgoat if I thought it would help!
You should do it anyway...Dec-21.. 2012 is coming.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting GrtLksQuest:
Re: Posts 25, 34, & 37

This is in response to a note I wrote to my friend, Jean, who arrived in Edmonton the day it hit -46*C:

Yep - they shut the airport down just after my plane got in on Saturday night because it was too cold for the ground crews to work. But Lois and I have gotten out for a good walk every morning in spite of the cold. Today should feel downright balmy -- we're going up to -23.
Jean


I don't suppose it's necessary to point out that she is Canadian.
a downright balmy -23 degrees.. lmao
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
People E of the Mississippi, get ready for some probable record breaking cold, especially Florida.


Gulf Coast Snow!!! I'm mongering and wishcasting, heck I'd even sacrifice a chicken or a smallgoat if I thought it would help!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
TAZMANIAN-I do believe we are all in for some interesting weather this winter. Especially when experts start mentioning anomalies and other crap that has not happened in the past 30-35 years.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Re: Posts 25, 34, & 37

This is in response to a note I wrote to my friend, Jean, who arrived in Edmonton the day it hit -46*C:

Yep - they shut the airport down just after my plane got in on Saturday night because it was too cold for the ground crews to work. But Lois and I have gotten out for a good walk every morning in spite of the cold. Today should feel downright balmy -- we're going up to -23.
Jean


I don't suppose it's necessary to point out that she is Canadian.
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5 degree drop in the last hour...now 64.
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105. unf97
Looks like we will finally get the first freeze of the season by tomorrow morning here in Jax. JAX NWS forcasting low around 30 degrees tomorrow morning. This will be the 3rd latest freeze date according to the Jacksonville NWS. The average first date for freezes here is December 3rd.

The latest GFS and ECMWF models are definitely trending to potentially bring some of the coldest air we have seen in a long time across the Eastern 2/3 of the USA. The next 10 -14 days could be record breaking for many areas. I am in particularly very curious in what the Birmingham and Mobile forecasters are stating regarding the ECMWF developing another Low Pressure area in the GOM by Monday of next week. If that verifies, and having very cold air already being in place by then over the Deep South, there could be a possible significant winter weather event in the Deep South early next week.

The model runs later this week will be very interesting to analyze for sure!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
000
FXUS66 KMTR 282226
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
300 PM PST MON DEC 28 2009



SHOULD SAY THAT CURRENT PATTERN APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY SEVERAL KEY
FEATURES. NOTICED THAT THE AO INDEX WAS OFF THE CHARTS TODAY IN
THE NEGATIVE. CPC HAD TO EXTEND THE ORDINATE TO -6 TO PLOT THE
CURRENT AO INDEX. ONE HAS TO GO BACK TO 76-77 TO SEE A NEGATIVE AO
THAT WAS EVEN CLOSE TO THIS. LOOKING BACK AT DEC JAN OF 76-77...
VERY DRY YEAR FOLLOWING THE DISASTER OF 75-76...ONE SEES MANY
SIMILARITIES TO THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN. KEY FEATURE IS
DEVELOPING MASSIVE HIGH THAT WILL PINCH-OFF OVER GREENLAND. THIS
VERY STRONG ANOMALY TELECONNECTS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST AND MASSIVE COLD OUTBREAK INTO THE EAST. NOT WHAT ONE EXPECTS
FOR EL NINO WINTER. 76-77 HOWEVER WAS ALSO AN EL NINO WINTER THAT
FOLLOWED SEVERAL YEARS OF MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA`S. ANOTHER FLY
IN THE OINTMENT HAS BEEN A VERY RAPIDLY MOVING ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN
WAVE THAT HAS MOVED RAPIDLY FROM THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE INTO THE
INDIAN OCEAN WHERE CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED. THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND WEAKEN BUT THIS MAY
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN AN AREA THAT SHOULD BE VERY DEPRESSED GIVEN
EL NINO PATTERN. IF THIS OCCURS THIS MAY EXACERBATE THE RIDGE OVER
CA EMULATING LA NINA LIKE CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN INTO THE PACNW
AND DRY FOR CA AND THE SOUTHWEST. IT DID APPEAR THAT BEFORE XMAS EL
NINO WOULD STRENGTHEN AND WE MAY HAVE SEEN MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS BY
NOW AND INTO JANUARY. THIS MOST LIKELY WILL NOT OCCUR NOW GIVEN THESE
COMPLICATING MID-LATITUDE FORCING FEATURES.

IT IS INTERESTING TO LOOK AT SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS AT 500 MB OVER THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. ONE SEES ALMOST NO SPREAD FROM RUSSIA THROUGH
CHINA INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC ALMOST TO THE DATELINE...THEN IT IS
LIKE WATER COMING OUT OF A HOSE...THE LINES GO EVERYWHERE FROM THE
DATELINE TO THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE EXPLANATION ABOVE WE MAY SEE
A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY FOR RIDGING OVER OUR AREA WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS AT LEAST INTO NEXT WEEK. SO MAY BE ABLE TO BE MORE
DEFINITIVE WITH DRYING FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE AT
LEAST A FEW RUN TO RUN MODELS SHOWING THIS. THIS IS A VERY
FRUSTRATING PATTERN TO FORECAST AS THERE IS A VERY STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING FROM CHINA ALL THE WAY TO EUROPE THAT
COULD POSE A MAJOR CHANGE TO WET FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CA BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING IS SUPPRESSING THIS AND LOOKS LIKE THIS
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO EARLY 2010.

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Quoting hydrus:
It just shows how some people don,t mind the cold until it does get near the freezing mark. I am Floridian, and for some reason have a tolerance to the cold. I feel the same way, 45, I grab a sweater, 20,s a good coat. single digits, several layers, double up socks, my best coat.

Exactly. When it hits freezing, I zip my fleece into my rain coat, and voila! Warm coat!
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5875
Quoting jeffs713:

The thing is... I was (kinda) serious. I am always amused how some people here in the Houston area come to work in parkas as soon as the low temp gets below 50. I usually don't bother with even a light fleece until the temp when I leave the house is below about 45.
It just shows how some people don,t mind the cold until it does get near the freezing mark. I am Floridian, and for some reason have a tolerance to the cold. I feel the same way, 45, I grab a sweater, 20,s a good coat. single digits, several layers, double up socks, my best coat.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
I'm down to 52 north and east of tampa
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Lol...jeffs and hydrus...I know it seems ridiculous compared to the temps. elsewhere, but we enjoy it down here when it happens. Makes up for the miserable summers and the high electric bills!

The thing is... I was (kinda) serious. I am always amused how some people here in the Houston area come to work in parkas as soon as the low temp gets below 50. I usually don't bother with even a light fleece until the temp when I leave the house is below about 45.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5875
Quoting IKE:
Long-term from Mobile,AL....

"RIGHT NOW THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ANOTHER GULF LOW WILL
FORM ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE GULF ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING MOISTURE OVER A VERY COLD AIR
MASS ON MONDAY.
THE GFS KEEPS ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE GULF AND
KEEPS OUR AREA MOSTLY DRY ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY."


This is a very interesting synopsis from the Mobile, AL forecasters.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
69 down here now.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Lol...jeffs and hydrus...I know it seems ridiculous compared to the temps. elsewhere, but we enjoy it down here when it happens. Makes up for the miserable summers and the high electric bills!
Yes Sir, my electric bill was half what it is during the summer.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
96. IKE
I'm down to 46.0...inland Florida panhandle.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 28. North northwest wind around 5 mph.
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Quoting hydrus:
poor West palm, 69 degrees and almost Jan. jk.lol...you might have to close the windows for the first time in a year.


Lol...jeffs and hydrus...I know it seems ridiculous compared to the temps. elsewhere, but we enjoy it down here when it happens. Makes up for the miserable summers and the high electric bills!
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94. IKE
Long-term from Birmingham,AL....

"VERY NICE DISCUSSION BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
FOLKS...REGARDING THE POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE GEM AGREEING (AT LEAST IN
PRINCIPLE) ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A GULF LOW WINTER STORM FOR OUR
AREA -- BAM...THE 12Z ECMWF THROUGHS A HEALTHY DOSE OF UNCERTAINTY
BACK INTO THE SALAD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY."


They spelled throws wrong. It's THROWS and not throughs...lol.
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93. IKE
Long-term from Mobile,AL....

"RIGHT NOW THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ANOTHER GULF LOW WILL
FORM ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE GULF ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING MOISTURE OVER A VERY COLD AIR
MASS ON MONDAY.
THE GFS KEEPS ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE GULF AND
KEEPS OUR AREA MOSTLY DRY ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY."
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Forecast low for West Palm/Lake Worth tomorrow morning 46...High tomorrow 69.
poor West palm, 69 degrees and almost Jan. jk.lol...you might have to close the windows for the first time in a year.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting IKE:


I was just fixing to post that long-term discussion from DFW.

Interesting to see what happens the next 1-3 weeks.


The Siberian/Arctic air will enter the S Plains and SE USA on 1/3 and 1/4/10. It is going to be very cold, especially over the East Coast down to FL. Records there will probably fall. As for how cold and where, once ECMWF and GFS stop arguing, we will have a better idea.
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90. IKE
Quoting Bordonaro:
A snippet of the Area Forecast Discussion, NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX, 2:37PM today:

LONG TERM...
THE COLD PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FROPA ON FRIDAY AND COLD CANADIAN AIR APPROACHES
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING A POLAR VORTEX FROM
SIBERIA ACROSS THE NORTH POLE INTO CANADA. THIS VORTEX STRETCHES
AND ABSORBS THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX SENDING COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE
CONUS AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE COLDEST AIR TO OUR EAST
WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG THROUGH OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT HIGH TEMPERATURES VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE TWO ON
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 30S. MEX GUIDANCE IS
TOO WARM DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY BIAS AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW
TO CHOOSE ONE MODEL SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER. THEREFORE...WILL TRIM
TEMPS DOWN BUT WILL AVOID THE RECORD BREAKING COLD SUGGESTED BY
THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME.

The Siberian/Arctic air is coming to the USA. The final question is how much cold air affects TX.

Local mets are watching the GFS and EMCWF argue :0). Mets leaning toward colder EMCWF, however this is 7 days away. We will have a real good idea on 1-1-10. The next computer runs over the next 3-4 days, should be very interesting!

People E of the Mississippi, get ready for some probable record breaking cold, especially Florida.


I was just fixing to post that long-term discussion from DFW.

Interesting to see what happens the next 1-3 weeks.
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A snippet of the Area Forecast Discussion, NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX, 2:37PM today:

LONG TERM...
THE COLD PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FROPA ON FRIDAY AND COLD CANADIAN AIR APPROACHES
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING A POLAR VORTEX FROM
SIBERIA ACROSS THE NORTH POLE INTO CANADA. THIS VORTEX STRETCHES
AND ABSORBS THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX SENDING COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE
CONUS AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE COLDEST AIR TO OUR EAST
WHILE THE ECMWF ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG THROUGH OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT HIGH TEMPERATURES VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE TWO ON
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 30S. MEX GUIDANCE IS
TOO WARM DUE TO CLIMATOLOGY BIAS AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW
TO CHOOSE ONE MODEL SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER. THEREFORE...WILL TRIM
TEMPS DOWN BUT WILL AVOID THE RECORD BREAKING COLD SUGGESTED BY
THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME.

The Siberian/Arctic air is coming to the USA. The final question is how much cold air affects TX.

Local mets are watching the GFS and EMCWF argue :0). Mets leaning toward colder EMCWF, however this is 7 days away. We will have a real good idea on 1-1-10. The next computer runs over the next 3-4 days, should be very interesting!

People E of the Mississippi, get ready for some probable record breaking cold, especially Florida.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Forecast low for West Palm/Lake Worth tomorrow morning 46...High tomorrow 69.

For fun, count how many people you see wearing parkas tomorrow morning.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5875

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.