The uncertain legacy of Copenhagen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:39 PM GMT on December 22, 2009

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The Copenhagen (COP15) climate summit is over, and leaves an uncertain legacy. What was accomplished in Copenhagen was far outweighed by what was not accomplished. While the final Copenhagen Accord affirmed that we must hold the warming of our planet below 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 to avert dangerous climate change, no timetable for accomplishing that goal was specified. The promises made by the various nations at the summit would likely lead to a 3.9°C warming of the planet, according to an analysis by MIT's Sustainability Institute. Copenhagen did demonstrate that the hype preceding the talks was not undeserved--the stakes involved are huge, and we have an epic political battle on our hands that will afford high drama in 2010. Probably the best summary of the political battle at Copenhagen was posted by author Mark Lynas on the UK Guardian's web site. The title of the article was, "How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room".

The leaders for greenhouse gas reductions
While the Copenhagen Summit made it clear that the coming battle will feature the U.S. and China, the voices of two tiny island nations--Tuvalu and The Maldives--will be important as well. When ranked by percentage of population located near the coast at an elevation of ten meters or less, the top five spots are held by small island nations with more than 90% of their population in this Low Elevation Coastal Zone--the Maldives, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos Islands (McGranahan et al., 2007). The very existence of these island nations are threatened by sea level rise due to climate change. The leaders of Tuvalu and The Maldives brought considerable attention to their plight at the Copenhagen conference, and President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, in particular, has made his tiny country a force to be reckoned with in the coming battle.


Figure 1. President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, Vice President Dr Mohamed Waheed and 11 cabinet ministers donned scuba gear and submerged 4 meters below the surface of sea to hold the world's first underwater cabinet meeting on October 17, 2009, in order to dramatize the threat sea level rise poses to their country.

The leaders against greenhouse gas reductions
Canada has joined Saudi Arabia as a leading voice against efforts to control emissions of greenhouse gases. According to The Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), which is published annually by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe, Canada ranks second to last in climate policy and in overall efforts to tackle climate change, among the 57 industrialized countries and emerging economies that together account for more than 90 per cent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. Canada's national statement at COP15 featured no commitments of money or targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and Canada also lobbied to change the "base" year from when emission reductions should be computed from 1990 to 2006. Croatia was the only other country to support Canada's position. The notorious political pranksters The Yes Men dramatized Canada's position by issuing a phony press release during COP15 claiming that Canada had come to its senses and was now going to work toward a 40 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions, the type of cut scientists say is necessary if we are to avoid dangerous warming of more than 2°C over pre-industrial levels. Canadian reporters immediately recognized the news release as a hoax. Canadian politics is heavily dominated by the fossil fuel industry, and Canadian reporters immediately saw the impossibility of the Canadian government performing an about-face on climate policy.


Figure 2. The top ten and bottom ten performing countries on the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), published annually by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe to rank the efforts to combat climate change of the 57 industrialized countries and emerging economies that together account for more than 90 per cent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. The ranking system factors in three scores: the emissions level (CO2 per primary energy unit, primary energy unit per GDP, and primary energy unit per capita); the emissions trend (whether emissions are rising or falling), and a subjective rating of the nation's national and international climate policy. Tall bars indicate a higher ranking, and thin bars represent a poor ranking. None of the 57 countries were doing enough to keep global warming below 2°C, so the top three spots on the list were left blank. Image credit: Germanwatch.org.

Comparison with the battle over CFC regulations and the ozone hole
On June 28, 1974, Sherry Rowland and Mario Molina, chemists at the University of California, Irvine, published the first scientific paper warning that human-generated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could cause serious harm to Earth's protective ozone layer (Molina and Rowland, 1974). They calculated that if CFC production continued to increase at the going rate of 10%/year until 1990, then remain steady, CFCs would cause a global 5 to 7 percent ozone loss by 1995 and 30 - 50% loss by 2050.

They warned that the loss of ozone would significantly increase the amount of skin-damaging ultraviolet UV-B light reaching the surface, greatly increasing skin cancer and cataracts. The loss of stratospheric ozone could also significantly cool the stratosphere, potentially causing destructive climate change. Although no stratospheric ozone loss had been observed yet, CFCs should be banned, they said. A huge international political battle ensued, one that eerily echoes many of the same themes as the battle over global warming. In a 1984 interview in The New Yorker, Dr. Rowland concluded, "Nothing will be done about this problem until there is further evidence that a significant loss of ozone has occurred. Unfortunately, this means that if there is a disaster in the making in the stratosphere we are probably not going to avoid it." These prophetic words were proved true the very next year with the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. Speedy action to save the planet from potentially disastrous loss of the ozone layer was realized with the swift implementation of the Montreal Protocol two years later, though.

As was the case with the battle over the CFCs and the ozone layer, I expect it will take a obvious imminent climate change disaster to motivate governments to take strong action. I believed in September 2007 that such an event had occurred, when the Arctic ice cap lost more than half of its area, compared to levels observed in the early 1950s. I was astounded at the nonchalance the event earned in the press and among politicians. But, in hindsight I should not have been surprised, since the stakes are very much higher than the battle to ban CFCs--now we are talking about the fossil fuel industry, the very basis for our modern industrialized society. A very big, very obvious disaster in the making will probably be needed to motivate strong enough action to make a major difference in CO2 emissions. Our climate is certainly capable of generating such an event in the coming decade. Unfortunately, if we wait until a disaster is obviously imminent, we will have far less time to prevent a climate disaster than we had for the ozone depletion crisis. The lifetime of CFCs in the atmosphere is 50 - 140 years, but a substantial portion of the CO2 put in the air stays for thousands of years. According to the 2007 IPCC report, "About 50% of a CO2 increase will be removed from the atmosphere within 30 years, and a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries. The remaining 20% may stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years."

References
McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson, 2007, "The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones", Environment & Urbanization, 19(1), 17-37.

Molina, M.J., and F.S. Rowland, "Stratospheric Sink for Chlorofluoromethanes: Chlorine Atom-Catalyzed Destruction of Ozone", Nature 249, 810-812, 1974.

Next post
Have a great Christmas, everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday (at the latest).

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
Relax Doug..just a lil Sunday morning "Gig"..

We all Love JB and his politically challenged entries,why I'll even bet Dr. Masters Grins over them.

Why not open a weekly or Daily Blog and post um regularly...?



I feel like we oughta sing kum-by-ya or something! LOL.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 802
1387. Patrap
Relax Doug..just a lil Sunday morning "Gig"..

We all Love JB and his politically challenged entries,why I'll even bet Dr. Masters Grins over them.

Why not open a weekly or Daily Blog and post um regularly...?

Getting mail over posting a "Copy and paste" work of another?

Wow,..
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1385. Skyepony (Mod)
Melting snow brings flooding


click map to look at gauges.
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Quoting Patrap:
Is JB the new auricle for u guys?

Why dont ya'll just bow down and switch to Accuweather and leave the wunderground..?

Do us all a Big favor.


Or at least post Jeff's entry there.

Yeah,right..

Seems to be a pattern developing,post some JB BS,then chew on it,then bounce out for chess.


The chess deal is cool,least we dont have the "FLAME on" tag today

LOL



I like Accuweather. I like Wunderground. I like weather. I'm weather weenie with too much time on my hands lately I guess. You don't really want me leave do ya? Thats just down-right un-neighborly! I'm deeply wounded!
And you're prolly stuck with me anyway Unless I get banned somehow. Anyway, some of the people enjoy reading JB's stuff whether they agree with him or not. I get the emails.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 802
Quoting Bordonaro:
So we have "supercharged" storms systems, due to the strong SW Sub-Tropical Jet and the Arctic incursions into the US.


Ok, what did I miss... what "supercharged" storm systems? There have been some decent storms... but nothing anyone would rate as "supercharged"?
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This is NOT a normal El Nino. The typical El Nino pattern usually brings milder temps/drier weather to the Midwest and Alaska, and cooler/wetter conditions over CA, into the Desert SW, across TX, the Gulf Coast states and FL.

NOT the case this time around. There is more warming in the Central Pacific and in regions near Australia. Modiki El Nino. So we have "supercharged" storms systems, due to the strong SW Sub-Tropical Jet and the Arctic incursions into the US.

The Negative AO, Negative NAO, the deep L pressure trough over Eastern Canada may pull some real, nasty Arctic/Siberian air into the CONUS. This should make the first 15 days of Jan 2010 very, very, interesting!
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1381. Patrap
..Little by Little,everything changes..
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Quoting Xyrus:


How, exactly, does any of the current meteorological phenomena discredit climate change?

It's winter in the northern hemisphere and we also have one hell of an El Nino.

But aside from that, overall warming means more energy. This leads to altered weather patterns. More energy can also cause stronger storms, as well as altered jet streams.

Just because the average global temperature is rising does not mean you will not get colder temperatures in some areas (actually, Europe is supposed to get colder winters). Nor does it mean winters will have no snow (may actually get more as warmer air can hold more moisture).

But don't let anything like information or research slow you down.

~X~


http://www.bgs.ac.uk/search/advsearch.cfm?q=ice%20ages&qFileType=all&qCollection=all&start=1

Something a little less technical:

http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Curious.htm

And the list could go on, but it is hard to dispell religous fervor.


To me, consensus seems to be the process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values and policies. So it is something in which no one believes and to which no one objects.
Margaret Thatcher
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1379. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
Seems Dr. Masters entry a few weeks ago is relevant too.


The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges

Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:53 AM CST on December 11, 2009
The dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice in recent years has created a fundamental new change in the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that has sped up sea ice loss and is affecting fall and winter weather across most of the Northern Hemisphere, according to several recent studies. Arctic sea ice loss peaks in September and October, exposing a large area of open water that heats the air above it. This extra heat has helped drive September - November air temperatures in the Arctic to 1°C (1.8°F) or more above average over about half of the depth of the lower atmosphere (Figure 1). This deep layer of warm air has grown less dense and expanded, pushing the top of the troposphere (the lower atmosphere) higher. The result has been a decrease in the pressure gradient (the difference in pressure) between the North Pole and mid-latitudes. With not as much difference in pressure to try and equalize, the jet stream has slowed down in the Arctic, creating a major change in the atmospheric circulation for the Northern Hemisphere.

Feel free to expound on this lil entry...

JB Experts as well.


Wow!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 28604
1378. Patrap
Seems Dr. Masters entry a few weeks ago is relevant too.


The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges


Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:53 AM CST on December 11, 2009
The dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice in recent years has created a fundamental new change in the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that has sped up sea ice loss and is affecting fall and winter weather across most of the Northern Hemisphere, according to several recent studies. Arctic sea ice loss peaks in September and October, exposing a large area of open water that heats the air above it. This extra heat has helped drive September - November air temperatures in the Arctic to 1°C (1.8°F) or more above average over about half of the depth of the lower atmosphere (Figure 1). This deep layer of warm air has grown less dense and expanded, pushing the top of the troposphere (the lower atmosphere) higher. The result has been a decrease in the pressure gradient (the difference in pressure) between the North Pole and mid-latitudes. With not as much difference in pressure to try and equalize, the jet stream has slowed down in the Arctic, creating a major change in the atmospheric circulation for the Northern Hemisphere.

Feel free to expound on this lil entry...

JB Experts as well.
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1377. jipmg
I pray that MIAMI sees snow..

idk maybe this thing the models are showing can do it, but then again I am just a 17 year old that has never seen snow in his life.
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1376. Patrap
The GFSx 10-day thru 6 Jan
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1375. Patrap
The Tailgaters here at least are dry and chilly as the rains scoots NE just offshore.

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1374. hydrus
Quoting Bordonaro:
Hydrus, I do realize that 1-5 through 1-8-10 is far out. The Arctic outbreak will allow some of the coldest air dump into Canada since the late 1970's. The sheer weight of the airmass will allow at LEAST a portion/chunk of that Siberian air to penetrate a good portion of the CONUS.
I have noticed the size and power of the low pressure systems in the northern hemisphere. This has been going on for quite a while. These powerful lows can pull bitterly cold air into the CONUS.The 1970,s certainly had its share of intense low pressure areas. That is why I said I will keep the crowpot ready.lol.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 25032
1373. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
658 am CST sun Dec 27 2009


Update...
sounding discussion...


A bit of Gulf moisture is beginning to move into the area along
with scattered showers over the coastal areas this
morning...precipitable water value is 0.77 inches. A broken deck
of middle level clouds are present near 9500 feet and a significant
amount of dry air is present above 600 mb. A large surface
inversion is present near 875 feet and winds are light and
variable at the surface and out of the west and southwest aloft.





&&


Previous discussion... /issued 429 am CST sun Dec 27 2009/


Short term...
not often that we have went with any parameter of the NAM. But
this morning is a little different. The placement of surface features
seems to be a little better in the NAM than with the global
solutions. The other reason is due to its maintaining the
relatively same solution as most models were holding yesterday.
That is bringing wednesdays surface low up to the northwest Gulf then moving it
east along the la coast. Initializing was pretty much the same for
the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) in which they were both slightly weaker with
resolving jet level winds in different sectors. The NAM was
slightly stronger. Have basically went with a short term blend of
the NAM and either global model. Used feature temporal and spatial
solutions from the NAM and mass fields from the GFS.


Long term...
another cold front moves through Thursday night into Friday morning.
There is some disagreement with the global solutions in precipitation
with this front. The GFS wants to lift layers from about 800mb up.
Keep in mind that moisture in these layers was flushed by the Wednesday
system. This does not seem to matter to the GFS since it maximizes
lift through a very deep column squeezing out what available
moisture is left. The dynamics that give rise to this lift is due
to a very sharp upper trough swinging through. The European model (ecmwf) would
like to keep the broad trough in tact causing only minor lift in
the rr quadrant of a 30h jet...but not enough to cause saturation
other than for the production of clouds. Would like to bend(but
only slightly) more toward the European model (ecmwf) for this extended portion
due to 140kt wind speeds being realized in both models on the east
and west sides of the upper trough by this time frame. This would
simply maintain the broad trough. But the European model (ecmwf) does not handle a
weak upper disturbance topping the synoptic scale ridge near
vancouvar...it simply does away with it by Thursday morning. If this
feature drops into the base of the broad upper trough...the
density discontinuities would provide enough imbalance at the base
of the trough to cause it to sharpen and swing quickly eastward.
With all this in mind...simply set 20% pop numbers for Thursday night.

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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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1371. unf97
A 1066 mb High Pressure area?

My goodness, if that comes anywhere close to verifying and heads southward during the next ten day period, there will potentially some low temp records smashed in many areas across the Eastern two thirds of the U.S.

1066 mb High would certainly be unprecedented.

We shall see if the models verify with that in the coming days.

Wow.
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1370. Patrap
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Ok. Who killed the blog?


I wonder?

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Quoting hydrus:
I asked you if we would have severe weather in Tennessee with the last storm.You said there was a chance. We had wind gusts to 65mph here on the plateau. Alot of branches down, siding on the garage blown off. Non-Thunderstorm winds.


yeah, well you had severe wind, hope your property fared well
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Hydrus, I do realize that 1-5 through 1-8-10 is far out. The Arctic outbreak will allow some of the coldest air dump into Canada since the late 1970's. The sheer weight of the airmass will allow at LEAST a portion/chunk of that Siberian air to penetrate a good portion of the CONUS.
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1367. hydrus
Quoting tornadodude:


sounds intense :O
I asked you if we would have severe weather in Tennessee with the last storm.You said there was a chance. We had wind gusts to 65mph here on the plateau. Alot of branches down, siding on the garage blown off. Non-Thunderstorm winds.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 25032
Quoting tornadodude:


sounds intense :O


Portion of the NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Area Forecast Discussion as of 3:48AM CST today:

FINALLY...A LOOK BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD SUGGESTS WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FATE OF AN EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE ORGANIZING IN NORTHERN CANADA. GFS/ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS
HAVE BEEN BRINGING A POLAR VORTEX FROM SIBERIA ACROSS THE NORTH
POLE INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. GFS KEEPS THE COLD AIR BOTTLED
UP...BUT THE ECMWF FOR A COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN INDICATING A GOOD
UPPER PATTERN TO ALLOW THIS AIRMASS SOUTHWARD JAN 5-8. LAST RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS A SURFACE HIGH OF 1066MB NORTH OF ALASKA...WHICH IS
THE HIGHEST I HAVE EVER SEEN THAT MODEL FORECAST.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Well, young man, you're about to see temperatures in the -30 to -50F range over the Upper Midwest, with temperatures near 30F in Miami, FL!!


sounds intense :O
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Quoting tornadodude:


dude, you have no idea haha I would love that, only because I have a fascination for extreme weather events. I do find it to be notable that the DFW NWS mentions it, so it must be intense


Well, young man, you're about to see temperatures in the -30 to -50F range over the Upper Midwest, with temperatures near 30F in Miami, FL!!
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Quoting Bordonaro:


So you REALLY want cold and snow, now don't ya'! I know only a meteorology student would pray for an almost UNHEARD of cold snap :0)!!


dude, you have no idea haha I would love that, only because I have a fascination for extreme weather events. I do find it to be notable that the DFW NWS mentions it, so it must be intense
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1361. hydrus
Quoting Bordonaro:
Quoting: btwntx08:


1066MB=31FINALLY...A LOOK BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD SUGGESTS WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FATE OF AN EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE ORGANIZING IN NORTHERN CANADA. GFS/ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS
HAVE BEEN BRINGING A POLAR VORTEX FROM SIBERIA ACROSS THE NORTH
POLE INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. GFS KEEPS THE COLD AIR BOTTLED
UP...BUT THE ECMWF FOR A COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN INDICATING A GOOD
UPPER PATTERN TO ALLOW THIS AIRMASS SOUTHWARD JAN 5-8. LAST RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS A SURFACE HIGH OF 1066MB NORTH OF ALASKA...WHICH IS
THE HIGHEST I HAVE EVER SEEN THAT MODEL FORECAST.
holy moly woah

1066 MB=31.48" of HG. IF the model runs as forecasted, it is really going to look alot like the winter of 1899 for about 1 week. Records of ALL TYPES will tumble, like a a bunch of dominoes!!
That is too far out to put much faith in. The 1899 Arctic Outbreak records will stand a while longer.jmo........But I will have the crowpot on standby.:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 25032
Quoting tornadodude:


So you REALLY want cold and snow, now don't ya'! I know only a meteorology student would pray for an almost UNHEARD of cold snap :0)!!
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1358. hydrus
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Ok. Who killed the blog?
Lee Harvey Oswald, He is back.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 25032
Quoting: btwntx08:


1066MB=31FINALLY...A LOOK BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD SUGGESTS WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FATE OF AN EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE ORGANIZING IN NORTHERN CANADA. GFS/ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS
HAVE BEEN BRINGING A POLAR VORTEX FROM SIBERIA ACROSS THE NORTH
POLE INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. GFS KEEPS THE COLD AIR BOTTLED
UP...BUT THE ECMWF FOR A COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN INDICATING A GOOD
UPPER PATTERN TO ALLOW THIS AIRMASS SOUTHWARD JAN 5-8. LAST RUN OF
THE ECMWF HAS A SURFACE HIGH OF 1066MB NORTH OF ALASKA...WHICH IS
THE HIGHEST I HAVE EVER SEEN THAT MODEL FORECAST.
holy moly woah

1066 MB=31.48" of HG. IF the model runs as forecasted, it is really going to look alot like the winter of 1899 for about 1 week. Records of ALL TYPES will tumble, like a a bunch of dominoes!!
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Ok. Who killed the blog?


Nobody, I updated my blog for the DFW area, take a look:

Link
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Ok. Who killed the blog?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 802
1351. IKE
Quoting Bordonaro:


NWS Ft Worth-Dallas is very conservative when calling for snow and or extremely cold weather. So for them to put that graphic up about the Siberian Express on 12-27-09, the computer models must all be pointing at a major Arctic outbreak. This happened while I lived on Long sland in the late 70's! We had air temps of -1F in NYC, NY, wind chill factor was -50F.


It may come true.
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Quoting IKE:


I know Gulf Power is higher...I'm on Chelco. They had a 3 step rate increase last year into the summer of 2009. Before the increase mine would have been about $140+/- for this month.

As others have said..be careful what we wish for.


NWS Ft Worth-Dallas is very conservative when calling for snow and or extremely cold weather. So for them to put that graphic up about the Siberian Express on 12-27-09, the computer models must all be pointing at a major Arctic outbreak. This happened while I lived on Long sland in the late 70's! We had air temps of -1F in NYC, NY, wind chill factor was -50F.
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Gonna go play Chess online for a little while. Prolly get my head handed to me. BBL.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 802
1348. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Ive been about 250 since Oct.


I know Gulf Power is higher...I'm on Chelco. They had a 3 step rate increase last year into the summer of 2009. Before the increase mine would have been about $140+/- for this month.

As others have said..be careful what we wish for.
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Ive been about 250 since Oct.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 802
1346. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Mine runs $400 all summer. Better stock up on fire wood!


Jeez...that's terrible. Mine is only $176.08 this month.
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Gotta luv Snoopy! Thats cool Bord!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 802
Mine runs $400 all summer. Better stock up on fire wood!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 802
1343. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I've always wanted to experience Feb 1899. Thats sick. I know. The 1st step to overcoming a problem is to admit you have it right?


:)....problem is, I might have my first $300 electric bill in this house.
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I've always wanted to experience Feb 1899. Thats sick. I know. The 1st step to overcoming a problem is to admit you have it right?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 802
Quoting Orcasystems:


Happy Dance Happy Dance :)


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1340. IKE
What a pattern worldwide. Europe is about to get hammered as is the far east. It could be the coldest opening 10 days of the year in the big 3 teleconnection points ( far east, eastern NA and europe since 1977 and the days The chief science commissar, John Holdren, was thinking an ice age is coming...........


I see he's still calling for it.
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Quoting IKE:


Yeah I saw that run and agree, it's been jumping on snow along the gulf coast in the long range for the last few weeks and then when it gets closer it doesn't materialize.

Yeah the 6Z GFS is bitterly cold for the eastern USA...like Bastardi has been saying is possible.


LOOK AT THIS!!

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JB this morn.


SUNDAY 8 AM
POST LATER TODAY..ON THE ROAD

I do want to point out that this system in the midwest is as described below, and though not a fair swap, many people that lost their snow yesterday, will get some of it back later tonight and tomorrow.

I have no changes on the ideas below even though modeling is all over the place. The overall pattern is looking more and more like the end of Dec 2000 for this weekend, and the second part of this is more the threat in NYC than lets say DC, Remember the blizzard was bigger in DC than in NYC and BOS. However the first part of this may cause it snow in Dallas Tuesday, and then Dc Wednesday night or Thur, before we see what goodies await later.

What a pattern worldwide. Europe is about to get hammered as is the far east. It could be the coldest opening 10 days of the year in the big 3 teleconnection points ( far east, eastern NA and europe since 1977 and the days The chief science commissar, John Holdren, was thinking an ice age is coming.

I wonder if we are going to here that..... climate change means an ice age is around the corner.

ciao for now ****
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 802

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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