The uncertain legacy of Copenhagen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:39 PM GMT on December 22, 2009

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The Copenhagen (COP15) climate summit is over, and leaves an uncertain legacy. What was accomplished in Copenhagen was far outweighed by what was not accomplished. While the final Copenhagen Accord affirmed that we must hold the warming of our planet below 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 to avert dangerous climate change, no timetable for accomplishing that goal was specified. The promises made by the various nations at the summit would likely lead to a 3.9°C warming of the planet, according to an analysis by MIT's Sustainability Institute. Copenhagen did demonstrate that the hype preceding the talks was not undeserved--the stakes involved are huge, and we have an epic political battle on our hands that will afford high drama in 2010. Probably the best summary of the political battle at Copenhagen was posted by author Mark Lynas on the UK Guardian's web site. The title of the article was, "How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room".

The leaders for greenhouse gas reductions
While the Copenhagen Summit made it clear that the coming battle will feature the U.S. and China, the voices of two tiny island nations--Tuvalu and The Maldives--will be important as well. When ranked by percentage of population located near the coast at an elevation of ten meters or less, the top five spots are held by small island nations with more than 90% of their population in this Low Elevation Coastal Zone--the Maldives, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos Islands (McGranahan et al., 2007). The very existence of these island nations are threatened by sea level rise due to climate change. The leaders of Tuvalu and The Maldives brought considerable attention to their plight at the Copenhagen conference, and President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, in particular, has made his tiny country a force to be reckoned with in the coming battle.


Figure 1. President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, Vice President Dr Mohamed Waheed and 11 cabinet ministers donned scuba gear and submerged 4 meters below the surface of sea to hold the world's first underwater cabinet meeting on October 17, 2009, in order to dramatize the threat sea level rise poses to their country.

The leaders against greenhouse gas reductions
Canada has joined Saudi Arabia as a leading voice against efforts to control emissions of greenhouse gases. According to The Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), which is published annually by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe, Canada ranks second to last in climate policy and in overall efforts to tackle climate change, among the 57 industrialized countries and emerging economies that together account for more than 90 per cent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. Canada's national statement at COP15 featured no commitments of money or targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and Canada also lobbied to change the "base" year from when emission reductions should be computed from 1990 to 2006. Croatia was the only other country to support Canada's position. The notorious political pranksters The Yes Men dramatized Canada's position by issuing a phony press release during COP15 claiming that Canada had come to its senses and was now going to work toward a 40 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions, the type of cut scientists say is necessary if we are to avoid dangerous warming of more than 2°C over pre-industrial levels. Canadian reporters immediately recognized the news release as a hoax. Canadian politics is heavily dominated by the fossil fuel industry, and Canadian reporters immediately saw the impossibility of the Canadian government performing an about-face on climate policy.


Figure 2. The top ten and bottom ten performing countries on the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), published annually by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe to rank the efforts to combat climate change of the 57 industrialized countries and emerging economies that together account for more than 90 per cent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. The ranking system factors in three scores: the emissions level (CO2 per primary energy unit, primary energy unit per GDP, and primary energy unit per capita); the emissions trend (whether emissions are rising or falling), and a subjective rating of the nation's national and international climate policy. Tall bars indicate a higher ranking, and thin bars represent a poor ranking. None of the 57 countries were doing enough to keep global warming below 2°C, so the top three spots on the list were left blank. Image credit: Germanwatch.org.

Comparison with the battle over CFC regulations and the ozone hole
On June 28, 1974, Sherry Rowland and Mario Molina, chemists at the University of California, Irvine, published the first scientific paper warning that human-generated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could cause serious harm to Earth's protective ozone layer (Molina and Rowland, 1974). They calculated that if CFC production continued to increase at the going rate of 10%/year until 1990, then remain steady, CFCs would cause a global 5 to 7 percent ozone loss by 1995 and 30 - 50% loss by 2050.

They warned that the loss of ozone would significantly increase the amount of skin-damaging ultraviolet UV-B light reaching the surface, greatly increasing skin cancer and cataracts. The loss of stratospheric ozone could also significantly cool the stratosphere, potentially causing destructive climate change. Although no stratospheric ozone loss had been observed yet, CFCs should be banned, they said. A huge international political battle ensued, one that eerily echoes many of the same themes as the battle over global warming. In a 1984 interview in The New Yorker, Dr. Rowland concluded, "Nothing will be done about this problem until there is further evidence that a significant loss of ozone has occurred. Unfortunately, this means that if there is a disaster in the making in the stratosphere we are probably not going to avoid it." These prophetic words were proved true the very next year with the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. Speedy action to save the planet from potentially disastrous loss of the ozone layer was realized with the swift implementation of the Montreal Protocol two years later, though.

As was the case with the battle over the CFCs and the ozone layer, I expect it will take a obvious imminent climate change disaster to motivate governments to take strong action. I believed in September 2007 that such an event had occurred, when the Arctic ice cap lost more than half of its area, compared to levels observed in the early 1950s. I was astounded at the nonchalance the event earned in the press and among politicians. But, in hindsight I should not have been surprised, since the stakes are very much higher than the battle to ban CFCs--now we are talking about the fossil fuel industry, the very basis for our modern industrialized society. A very big, very obvious disaster in the making will probably be needed to motivate strong enough action to make a major difference in CO2 emissions. Our climate is certainly capable of generating such an event in the coming decade. Unfortunately, if we wait until a disaster is obviously imminent, we will have far less time to prevent a climate disaster than we had for the ozone depletion crisis. The lifetime of CFCs in the atmosphere is 50 - 140 years, but a substantial portion of the CO2 put in the air stays for thousands of years. According to the 2007 IPCC report, "About 50% of a CO2 increase will be removed from the atmosphere within 30 years, and a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries. The remaining 20% may stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years."

References
McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson, 2007, "The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones", Environment & Urbanization, 19(1), 17-37.

Molina, M.J., and F.S. Rowland, "Stratospheric Sink for Chlorofluoromethanes: Chlorine Atom-Catalyzed Destruction of Ozone", Nature 249, 810-812, 1974.

Next post
Have a great Christmas, everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday (at the latest).

Jeff Masters

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18Z NAM RUN** Tues 12-29-09 NAM 48HRS solution, 850MB

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting weatherbro:


What's the NAO and PNA gonna be by then?


NAO is negative
PNA, neutral to slightly positive
PNA link below:
Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1436. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Bordonaro:


The previous EMCWF map is a European Model. The temperatures are in C. The map shows a large area of Low pressure over Nothern Canada, called a Polar Vortex Low. The counter-clockwise flow will pull that Polar air southward. The $64,000 question is where the Polar vortex L goes.

The EMCWF only allows 8-14 models to be used by those who pay for access to them. The NOAA/National Weather Service subscribes to their long-range model forecasting. According to the NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX office, the ECMWF models indicate favorable conditions to allow the coldest Arctic air to move into the US. See graphic below:



However, the GFS long range forecast keeps the Arctic Air locked in Northern Canada.


gfs-mrf

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:


The previous EMCWF map is a European Model. The temperatures are in C. The map shows a large area of Low pressure over Nothern Canada, called a Polar Vortex Low. The counter-clockwise flow will pull that Polar air southward. The $64,000 question is where the Polar vortex L goes.

The EMCWF only allows 8-14 models to be used by those who pay for access to them. The NOAA/National Weather Service subscribes to their long-range model forecasting. According to the NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX office, the ECMWF models indicate favorable conditions to allow the coldest Arctic air to move into the US. See graphic below:



However, the GFS long range forecast keeps the Arctic Air locked in Northern Canada.


What's the NAO and PNA gonna be by then?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jipmg:


I don't understand the temperature forecast..

what do the numbers in the bottom measure? What type of temperature? It isn't celsius or farenheit


The previous EMCWF map is a European Model. The temperatures are in C. The map shows a large area of Low pressure over Nothern Canada, called a Polar Vortex Low. The counter-clockwise flow will pull that Polar air southward. The $64,000 question is where the Polar vortex L goes.

The EMCWF only allows 8-14 models to be used by those who pay for access to them. The NOAA/National Weather Service subscribes to their long-range model forecasting. According to the NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX office, the ECMWF models indicate favorable conditions to allow the coldest Arctic air to move into the US. See graphic below:



However, the GFS long range forecast keeps the Arctic Air locked in Northern Canada.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1433. Grothar
Quoting Skyepony:
One thing about the article I posted. Completely contradicts what happened the days after 9/11..but soot is a huge problem accelerating the melt in the arctic.

I remember storys from my grandparents about being dropped from the second story window to tunnel through snow out to the barn in Ohio.


Sounds like your great-parents didn't like them much!!!

Only kidding. People had to do what they had to do. In those days, they didn't wait for help, they helped themselves the best way they could. There were times I felt like dropping little Grothar, JR. out the window, even without snow below.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25324
1432. Skyepony (Mod)
Here is yet another example where the models have failed to predict how extreme things are getting...


Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published online before print December 22, 2009; doi: 10.1073/pnas.0903186107
Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increases in MIROC and IPCC climate models
Masahiro Sugiyami* (Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Transdisciplinary Initiative for Global Sustainability, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8654, Japan), Hideo Shiogama (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan) and Seita Emori (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506; and Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba 277-8568, Japan )

Edited by Kerry A. Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, and approved November 24, 2009 (received for review March 23, 2009)

Abstract

Precipitation extreme changes are often assumed to scale with, or are constrained by, the change in atmospheric moisture content. Studies have generally confirmed the scaling based on moisture content for the midlatitudes but identified deviations for the tropics. In fact half of the twelve selected Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models exhibit increases faster than the climatological-mean precipitable water change for high percentiles of tropical daily precipitation, albeit with significant intermodel scatter. Decomposition of the precipitation extreme changes reveals that the variations among models can be attributed primarily to the differences in the upward velocity. Both the amplitude and vertical profile of vertical motion are found to affect precipitation extremes. A recently proposed scaling that incorporates these dynamical effects can capture the basic features of precipitation changes in both the tropics and midlatitudes. In particular, the increases in tropical precipitation extremes significantly exceed the precipitable water change in Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), a coupled general circulation model with the highest resolution among IPCC climate models whose precipitation characteristics have been shown to reasonably match those of observations. The expected intensification of tropical disturbances points to the possibility of precipitation extreme increases beyond the moisture content increase as is found in MIROC and some of IPCC models.

*Correspondence e-mail: masahiro_sugiyama@alum.mit.edu

Link to abstract: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/12/21/0903186107.abstract
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I just got off the phone with catastropheadjuster...her primary immediate concern is her power bill...I will be speaking with the power company tomorrow on her behalf...we have had a couple hundred dollars in contributions so far...enough to buy them some time on that score...the next urgent issue is healthcare...she and her husband are both quite ill...This is VERY important: ...these are hard working people...their ox just slid into the ditch... they do boat repair for a living...and have two projects to work on this week which will throw off several hundred dollars...so...these folks aren't just sitting around waiting for the money to roll in...they are ready and willing to work...let's help get them able...let's try to scrape up another few hundred dollars to get them to the doctor and the pharmacy so they can get busy...we can help them help themselves...I am certain that when their current misfortune passes these folks will pay this forward...

Thanks to all...Y'all simply rock!!!

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
1430. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting jipmg:


I don't understand the temperature forecast..

what do the numbers in the bottom measure? What type of temperature? It isn't celsius or farenheit


It's Celsius but not at the surface, at 850mb your looking at roughly 5000ft above sea level in height..
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1429. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok, what did I miss... what "supercharged" storm systems? There have been some decent storms... but nothing anyone would rate as "supercharged"?
jan feb mar will prove to be a most active time with severe season kicking in across south and deep cold racing from north towards the s se

by the way ya got another artic outflow coming

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1428. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


The country had just emerged from World War II, so the military and civilian organizations had plenty of practice with monumental disasters and assistance. The engineers and other groups had done a remarkable job in Europe and Asia, quickly removing debris from the bombings, rebuilding bridges, roads, etc. The organizations which were in effect at the time were easily mobilized and still pretty much in a war-mode mentality of preparedness.
Ready and able they certainly were. I am sure the aid and relief efforts from so many, to so many, was a blessing of great proportions in the hearts of those affected. Like you said, the setting of the times surely was beneficial to this major weather event. If this happened 10 years earlier, things would have turned out differently.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20492
1427. jipmg
Quoting Bordonaro:
ECMWF DAY 7, 1/3/10 at 6PM CST. The $64,000 question is, "Will the Polar Vortex centered over the Canadian Archipelago DUMP Siberian Arctic air into the CONUS"?



I don't understand the temperature forecast..

what do the numbers in the bottom measure? What type of temperature? It isn't celsius or farenheit
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1426. Skyepony (Mod)
One thing about the article I posted. Completely contradicts what happened the days after 9/11..but soot is a huge problem accelerating the melt in the arctic.

I remember storys from my grandparents about being dropped from the second story window to tunnel through snow out to the barn in Ohio.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ECMWF DAY 7, 1/3/10 at 6PM CST. The $64,000 question is, "Will the Polar Vortex centered over the Canadian Archipelago DUMP Siberian Arctic air into the CONUS"?

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1424. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
A monumental feat to say the least. Just goes to show what people can do when we pull together for something else besides war. I have to mention Nebraska and surrounding areas are desolate and difficult to reach for even a small rescue mission, a rescue that size is hard to imagine, especially in 1948!


The country had just emerged from World War II, so the military and civilian organizations had plenty of practice with monumental disasters and assistance. The engineers and other groups had done a remarkable job in Europe and Asia, quickly removing debris from the bombings, rebuilding bridges, roads, etc. The organizations which were in effect at the time were easily mobilized and still pretty much in a war-mode mentality of preparedness.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25324
1423. Grothar
Quoting gregpinehurstnc:
i did not think you were,, just did not realize they had that 60 years ago,, i remember reading laura ingells, about her winter in 1888,, all they had were trains to plow


Yes, but she was in Minnesota and they also had a blizzard in 1888, which is still talked about in New York. It was one of the most paralyzing the city ever had. It effected the economy of the entire country. You should look it up. Makes for some interesting reading. I, of course, was not around for that one!! LOL.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25324
WOW those pics for 1948 are great. I will never forget Feb. 1976 Blizzard. I went into the Mass General Hospital on 2/4. Learned I would be there for three weeks. I had a visit from someone from the school department, as I was going to have a tutor so I didn't miss too much work. Well, as it turn out I missed two days of school. We had received about a foot of snow the day before I went into the hospital, then the blizzard. All the roads in boston were shut down. Lucky for me my father was a boston police officer and was allowed to drive so I did have visits every day. One day in the third week they let me go out. My parent came and we walked up I think it is New Sudbury Street. The snow banks were so high I could not see the street. There were little cut outs so you could cross. I was pretty upset that I missed the entire storm!!!!
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NCEP's last update on the "Christmas 2009 Storm", link below. Man, what a mess this storm has left behind:

Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1420. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
Operation Snowbound was an effort by many groups, including the Fifth Army, the Red Cross, the Army Corps of Engineers, the Air Force, the National Guard and the Civil Air Patrol. In Nebraska, Operation Snowbound:


•covered 193,193 square miles in four states
•saved more than 4 million cattle from starvation
•freed more than 243,000 snowbound people
•cleared more than 115,0000 miles of road
•used 1,600 pieces of heavy equipment
•coordinated a 6,000-man workforce.
A monumental feat to say the least. Just goes to show what people can do when we pull together for something else besides war. I have to mention Nebraska and surrounding areas are desolate and difficult to reach for even a small rescue mission, a rescue that size is hard to imagine, especially in 1948!
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20492
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Flooding like 2008??? Please, please NOOOOOO.
I believe TornadoDude has some good pics on his blog about what that did in Indiana.
Only good thing about that flooding was that I got to go all over Missouri...and met some of Floodman's people in Fulton...although I did not know that 'til recently!

Okay, I posted something at 2 am but removed it. But it being Sunday I think it's relevant so I'm going to say it anyway.

This calling AGW/CC religious fervor and thinking you're insulting someone by calling them a minister or preacher just cracks me up. That's an insult?? Pffft.

Maybe it's mostly an east coast or west coast thing, but when we really like somebody, when they're wise or knowledgeable and we look up to them, and/or they're our mentors -- it's a term of endearment and affection and respect to call them "Father" or "Rabbi"...no matter what faith they or you might be!

"Rabbi" actually also means "teacher" or "scholar" -- so Dr. Masters qualifies in spades!

And "Father"? Well, for the sake of everything holy, just look at this WU dysfunctional "family"!!

There, I've said it!
Shalom;
and Peace Be With You.


Hey Awake in Maryland! I called that person who made that comment a "jackass"! GW, AGW. whatever anyone calls it is a contentious debate, whether in Copenhagen, or on WU. I'll just continue to do my "little part" for planet Earth and use resources wisely. The Earth's atmosphere and oceans have a way to compensate for added CO2 emissions and the Earth's warming. If the climate, mankind, natural events "tip the balance", no worries, the Earth will survive. The question then becomes, "Does the Earth now have the ability to support 6.5 billion people"? I just don't want to be around to find out.

On a lghter note, weather here at my house in SE Arlington, TX at 12:45 PM CST

Current Conditions: Sunnny
Temperature: 47F
Dew Point: 26F
Relative Humidity: 44%
Winds" NW at 7 MPH, gusts to 13 MPH
Barometric Pressure: 30.23" and falling

This morning's low was 29F
:0)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
i did not think you were,, just did not realize they had that 60 years ago,, i remember reading laura ingells, about her winter in 1888,, all they had were trains to plow
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1417. Grothar
Operation Snowbound was an effort by many groups, including the Fifth Army, the Red Cross, the Army Corps of Engineers, the Air Force, the National Guard and the Civil Air Patrol. In Nebraska, Operation Snowbound:


•covered 193,193 square miles in four states
•saved more than 4 million cattle from starvation
•freed more than 243,000 snowbound people
•cleared more than 115,0000 miles of road
•used 1,600 pieces of heavy equipment
•coordinated a 6,000-man workforce.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25324
1416. Grothar
Quoting gregpinehurstnc:
wow.1948, was that a 24 foot snow drift? and how did they plow that back then?


Didn't mean to be sarcastic in my response, sometimes I just can't help myself. Here is an actual picture of a massive snowblower in 1948 in Nebraska. It was actually a series of storms that lasted for months.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25324
1415. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Anybody remember the Blizzard of 1948? I was just a mere child at the time, but I remember it? Take a look!

Link
That is the most fantastic picture. the snow in that one photo would be higher then the locomotive. The only pics I have seen that are comparable were the ones from( The Blizzard that buried Buffalo )in 76-77. That storm killed over 80 people and had winds almost 100mph. Thirty foot drifts were common place.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20492
1414. Grothar
Quoting gregpinehurstnc:
wow.1948, was that a 24 foot snow drift? and how did they plow that back then?


Easy, they hired people to do it for them.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25324
1413. Grothar
The was also a Blizzard in the Northeast the year before, 1947, the records, if I am correct, were jut broken by this past weeks event.

Excerpt:
1947 December 26th-27th Big Snow 26.4" 2 The worst blizzard since 1888, and record holder until 2006. (This may have changed this week.)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25324
wow.1948, was that a 24 foot snow drift? and how did they plow that back then?
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1411. Skyepony (Mod)
This was interesting..posting the whole thing so you don't have to join to view.

The first analysis of emissions from commercial airline flights shows that they are responsible for 4–8% of surface global warming since surface air temperature records began in 1850 — equivalent to a temperature increase of 0.03–0.06 °C overall.

The analysis, by atmospheric scientists at Stanford University in Palo Alto, California, also shows that in the Arctic, aircraft vapour trails produced 15–20% of warming.

The results of this analysis are likely to be studied widely as nations attempt to address the impact of commercial aviation on global warming. There are around 35 million commercial airline flights every year. Studies have been conducted in Europe, with airlines coming under increased pressure as European Union leaders consider levying a carbon tax on aircraft emissions. But little research has been conducted on the topic in the United States.

Previous studies have only estimated the impacts of commercial aviation, but this is the first use of actual emissions data — from 2004 and 2006 — to calculate warming from such flights, says Mark Jacobson, a Stanford engineer who presented the analysis on 17 December at the American Geophysical Union's annual meeting in San Francisco, California.

For the latest study, Jacobson and his team developed a model for aircraft emissions that accounts for atmospheric composition, cloudiness and the physical properties of emissions, particularly of black carbon — a major part of soot.

In his presentation, Jacobson explained how the model was applied to a nine-year simulation covering 2004 to 2013, after breaking up flight routes into 300-kilometre-square grids for analysis. The model was able to calculate the characteristics of vapour trails based on the actual particulate size of emissions and their evolution over time.
Cloudy outlook
Many previous studies have assumed that the impact of aircraft emissions was the same everywhere. But the new analysis reveals that aircraft emissions increased the fraction of cirrus clouds where vapour trails were most abundant, and actually decreased the cirrus fraction in several locations by increasing the temperatures in the lower atmosphere, reducing the relative humidity in such locations.

If black-carbon emissions from aircraft could be reduced 20-fold, warming would be halted and a slight cooling would occur from plane-created vapour trails, Jacobson says.

The team's study is being peer reviewed and is expected to be published soon, Jacobson added.

David Fahey, of the Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado — part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — says that studies such as Jacobson's are important to fill the gaps in aircraft-emissions data following the nation's previously "muddled" research course.

Fahey says that now European leaders are calling for carbon taxes to be levied on each commercial airline flight, the United States is being driven to catch up on aircraft-emissions research. Some of the EU proposals suggest taxing a flight for emissions along its entire route. This is "absurd", says Fahey. For a more realistic levy, high-quality research is needed on the actual impact of such emissions, he adds.


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1410. Grothar


Picture of the Blizzard of 1948 in Nebraska.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25324
1409. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
The winters were much more fierce 1985 and before. Not at all saying there have not been areas hit by severe winter weather. But as you stated the older folks are in agreement that the winters are less severe than in the past. I remember some of the bad storms as far back as 1970. Before then I just don,t remember. Mom and dad usually fill in the blanks on the earlier storms I can,t recall. I have also collected numerous weather books going back decades. These also tell of the brutal winters of the past. The pictures are nothing short of incredible and do speak for themselves.


Anybody remember the Blizzard of 1948? I was just a mere child at the time, but I remember it? Take a look!

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25324
1408. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:


Some need to know,as Mariners the British and Others Like Spain keep records,meticulous ones of currents,SST's,and other data in Ship Logs that are still available today if you just look for it.

A Guy named Christopher Columbus kept Excellent records of the Sea and Atmosphere.

Man has always recorded his observations,way before the Modern era. The Greeks,and other early seafarers had to.

Because the sea was their Life. Be it trade,War or other,..one has to give the Generations and eons past,a consideration and not blurt out generalities.

It does a disservice to our past Generations when we do that.

Take a way the GPS from a Navigator under 45,and toss him a sextant,and well..you get the picture.

Their Knowledge of the Heavens,navigation and other...far outwits many a Modern seafarer.
This is very true. When I was out at sea, they did not use the term GPS,s. The units were called Satellite Navigators. Needless to say in the early to mid 80,s they were very expensive,But were so easy to use and did a much better job then best LORAN units of the day. I recall how amazed I was when it calculated for wind and water current speeds, and then display our latitude and longitude just like magic. They were a lot bulkier and heavier back then!.................lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20492
Quoting Grothar:
P.S. Which one is JB?

Bonjour, Padre. (Just kidding!)

Joe Bastardi, Accuweather guy.

Oh, please Deadskins...just this once...
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
1406. Patrap
Game time..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127541
1405. Patrap
Quoting hydrus:
The winters were much more fierce 1985 and before. Not at all saying there have not been areas hit by severe winter weather. But as you stated the older folks are in agreement that the winters are less severe than in the past. I remember some of the bad storms as far back as 1970. Before then I just don,t remember. Mom and dad usually fill in the blanks on the earlier storms I can,t recall. I have also collected numerous weather books going back decades. These also tell of the brutal winters of the past. The pictures are nothing short of incredible and do speak for themselves.


Always a good thing to read about the past from the written words of those who experienced it.

Your a wise owl and I respect that,we are all passionate about what we believe and that's a good thing regardless if folks agree with you or not.
Being true to oneself is a ALWAYS a good thing.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127541
Quoting Patrap:


Some need to know,as Mariners the British and Others Like Spain keep records,meticulous ones of currents,SSt's,and other data in Ship Log that are still availible today if you just look for it.

Man has always recorded his observations,way before the Modern era. The Greeks,and other early seafarers had too.

Because the sea was their Life. Be it trade,War or other,..one has to give the Generations and eons past,a consideration and not blurt out generalities.

It does a disservice to our past Generations when we do that.


Just going with the more modern methods of data collection and measurements which are still somewhat questionable unfortunately. I'm part of the "past" generations so I certainly mean no disrespect LOL.
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1403. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:



The Rossby Waves are very integral as you mention.

The more we study,the more complex the "Whole" becomes.

Quips on the cold are nice political Fodder,but this winter is much more aligned with what some of us near 50 or Older remember as the norm,from the 60s and 70's.


Winters on the avg though continue to be shorter and leading into Spring Earlier.And that's the fact to remember as Climate Change isnt just warming,..as every Ying has a competing Yang.

Australia for example.

The winters were much more fierce 1985 and before. Not at all saying there have not been areas hit by severe winter weather. But as you stated the older folks are in agreement that the winters are less severe than in the past. I remember some of the bad storms as far back as 1970. Before then I just don,t remember. Mom and dad usually fill in the blanks on the earlier storms I can,t recall. I have also collected numerous weather books going back decades. These also tell of the brutal winters of the past. The pictures are nothing short of incredible and do speak for themselves.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20492
Flooding like 2008??? Please, please NOOOOOO.
I believe TornadoDude has some good pics on his blog about what that did in Indiana.
Only good thing about that flooding was that I got to go all over Missouri...and met some of Floodman's people in Fulton...although I did not know that 'til recently!

Okay, I posted something at 2 am but removed it. But it being Sunday I think it's relevant so I'm going to say it anyway.

This calling AGW/CC religious fervor and thinking you're insulting someone by calling them a minister or preacher just cracks me up. That's an insult?? Pffft.

Maybe it's mostly an east coast or west coast thing, but when we really like somebody, when they're wise or knowledgeable and we look up to them, and/or they're our mentors -- it's a term of endearment and affection and respect to call them "Father" or "Rabbi"...no matter what faith they or you might be!

"Rabbi" actually also means "teacher" or "scholar" -- so Dr. Masters qualifies in spades!

And "Father"? Well, for the sake of everything holy, just look at this WU dysfunctional "family"!!

There, I've said it!
Shalom;
and Peace Be With You.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
1401. Grothar
P.S. Which one is JB?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25324
1400. Grothar
Today is the last day the Giants play in the old stadium. I had to turn in my 6 season tickets for 4 for the new Stadium. Had them for 28 years. Just couldn't afford the new prices. We were first row on the 40. Now we are 4th row on the 30. They assigned them as they see em. Still not bad. I go to the Giants Kick-off dinner in New York every year, usually in August. If any of you go you can meet me there.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25324
1399. Patrap
Quoting stormlvr:


Hmmm--Well, let me see. We have a "New in recorded history" (past 150 years, approximately 1/5th that time for satellite data) circulation pattern that forces cold air south from the pole causing an earlier start to a colder winter in the northern hemisphere overall. We have a cold Pacific signal and the Atlantic going cold within the next decade or so. It is very interesting Patrap--at the very least!


Some need to know,as Mariners the British and Others Like Spain keep records,meticulous ones of currents,SST's,and other data in Ship Logs that are still available today if you just look for it.

A Guy named Christopher Columbus kept Excellent records of the Sea and Atmosphere.

Man has always recorded his observations,way before the Modern era. The Greeks,and other early seafarers had to.

Because the sea was their Life. Be it trade,War or other,..one has to give the Generations and eons past,a consideration and not blurt out generalities.

It does a disservice to our past Generations when we do that.

Take a way the GPS from a Navigator under 45,and toss him a sextant,and well..you get the picture.

Their Knowledge of the Heavens,navigation and other...far outwits many a Modern seafarer.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127541
Quoting Patrap:
Seems Dr. Masters entry a few weeks ago is relevant too.


The climate is changing: the Arctic Dipole emerges

Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:53 AM CST on December 11, 2009
The dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice in recent years has created a fundamental new change in the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere that has sped up sea ice loss and is affecting fall and winter weather across most of the Northern Hemisphere, according to several recent studies. Arctic sea ice loss peaks in September and October, exposing a large area of open water that heats the air above it. This extra heat has helped drive September - November air temperatures in the Arctic to 1°C (1.8°F) or more above average over about half of the depth of the lower atmosphere (Figure 1). This deep layer of warm air has grown less dense and expanded, pushing the top of the troposphere (the lower atmosphere) higher. The result has been a decrease in the pressure gradient (the difference in pressure) between the North Pole and mid-latitudes. With not as much difference in pressure to try and equalize, the jet stream has slowed down in the Arctic, creating a major change in the atmospheric circulation for the Northern Hemisphere.

Feel free to expound on this lil entry...

JB Experts as well.


Hmmm--Well, let me see. We have a "New in recorded history" (past 150 years, approximately 1/5th that time for satellite data) circulation pattern that forces cold air south from the pole causing an earlier start to a colder winter in the northern hemisphere overall. We have a cold Pacific signal and the Atlantic going cold within the next decade or so. It is very interesting Patrap--at the very least!
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1397. Patrap
Advanced ENSO Theory: The Delayed Oscillator

Kelvin and Rossby Waves
Thus, an eastward wind-stress forcing produces equator-ward mass transport in both hemispheres, acting to increase locally the depth of the warm water layer near the equator, and decrease it locally farther poleward in either hemisphere. The mass surplus near the equator then begins to disperse eastward as a so-called (downwelling) Kelvin wave, and the mass-deficit areas begin to propagate westward as so-called (upwelling) Rossby waves (upwelling and downwelling refer to the wave tendencies either to shallow or deepen the warm water layer). Kelvin and Rossby waves have different propagation speeds (and directions) because of their different latitudinal structure, once again owing to the important effect of the Coriolis force, which is strongly latitude-dependent.

In the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, wave signals in general have important impacts on the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) because, due to the presence of the climatological westward blowing trade winds, there is mean poleward surface flow in either hemisphere, and mean upwelling at the equator, and thus a mechanism to translate subsurface anomalies to the surface.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127541
1396. Patrap
Saints vs Tampa in da Dome,Noon CST..


Had a big debate as to what we would grill today for that occasion.Too chilly to grill.

So we went with Turkey Gumbo with Tasso and Smoked Sausage.

Ummmmm,heaven is in a Pot seems.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127541
1395. Patrap
Quoting hydrus:
The Rossby Waves change weather constantly and globally. The complex lift, drop, squeezing, stretching, heating, cooling makes for an almost infinite number of weather situations. It seems to me that the more Rossby Waves there are, the more extreme the the weather is, regardless of which hemisphere or what season it is. I wish Mr. Rossby was here to post his take on the past and present weather.



The Rossby Waves are very integral as you mention.

The more we study,the more complex the "Whole" becomes.

Quips on the cold are nice political Fodder,but this winter is much more aligned with what some of us near 50 or Older remember as the norm,from the 60s and 70's.


Winters on the avg though continue to be shorter and leading into Spring Earlier.And that's the fact to remember as Climate Change isnt just warming,..as every Ying has a competing Yang.

Australia for example.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127541
1394. bassis
48 deg and very steady light rain in Dover NH. If this keeps up the white will be green. Water from the sidewalks is now coming up to my back patio
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1022 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-156-157-159-280100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-MCLENNAN-
1022 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2009

...WINTER WEATHER TO RETURN TO PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...

A COLD...POLAR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL PRECIPITATION FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AND COLD LOW LEVEL AIR TUESDAY MORNING WILL HELP
COOL AND SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW MIX. THE WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF
A LAMPASAS...WACO...ATHENS LINE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW NORTH OF A COMANCHE...WAXAHACHIE... EMORY LINE.
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES APPEAR POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

IT APPEARS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF TEMPLE TO PALESTINE LINE
WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN IN THE FORM
OF A COLD RAIN.

MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN CONCERNING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM APPEARS STRONGER AND THERE IS
MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEN EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS COULD INCREASE.
PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS REGARDING CHANGES TO THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AS MORE RELIABLE
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE TO FORECASTERS.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1392. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
..Little by Little,everything changes..
The Rossby Waves change weather constantly and globally. The complex lift, drop, squeezing, stretching, heating, cooling makes for an almost infinite number of weather situations. It seems to me that the more Rossby Waves there are, the more extreme the the weather is, regardless of which hemisphere or what season it is. I wish Mr. Rossby was here to post his take on the past and present weather.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20492
Good morning all (yes it is still morning here - lol).

Skye-you are so right. hopefully there won't be extreme flooding like the midwest had in 2008 or anywhere else for that matter...but things are starting to look that way if and when the snow melts and of course, all that water has to flow southward. The Mobile area has been under a flood watch on and off for about 3 weeks now; and with the current situation between the snow to the north and all the coastal rain, I expect the flood watch to continue.

Now, about that snow..I am still wishing and hoping that this is our year. If we fail to set the white stuff this season, we have missed a prime opportunity!..lol
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Orca the "Nor'Ida", the "E Coast Pre-Christmas Storm" and the "December 23-26 Snowstorm" provided some pretty significant weather problems here in the US.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1389. aquak9
Jacksonville snow = Aqua bikini.

Be careful what you wish for...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Relax Doug..just a lil Sunday morning "Gig"..

We all Love JB and his politically challenged entries,why I'll even bet Dr. Masters Grins over them.

Why not open a weekly or Daily Blog and post um regularly...?



I feel like we oughta sing kum-by-ya or something! LOL.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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