The uncertain legacy of Copenhagen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:39 PM GMT on December 22, 2009

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The Copenhagen (COP15) climate summit is over, and leaves an uncertain legacy. What was accomplished in Copenhagen was far outweighed by what was not accomplished. While the final Copenhagen Accord affirmed that we must hold the warming of our planet below 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 to avert dangerous climate change, no timetable for accomplishing that goal was specified. The promises made by the various nations at the summit would likely lead to a 3.9°C warming of the planet, according to an analysis by MIT's Sustainability Institute. Copenhagen did demonstrate that the hype preceding the talks was not undeserved--the stakes involved are huge, and we have an epic political battle on our hands that will afford high drama in 2010. Probably the best summary of the political battle at Copenhagen was posted by author Mark Lynas on the UK Guardian's web site. The title of the article was, "How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room".

The leaders for greenhouse gas reductions
While the Copenhagen Summit made it clear that the coming battle will feature the U.S. and China, the voices of two tiny island nations--Tuvalu and The Maldives--will be important as well. When ranked by percentage of population located near the coast at an elevation of ten meters or less, the top five spots are held by small island nations with more than 90% of their population in this Low Elevation Coastal Zone--the Maldives, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos Islands (McGranahan et al., 2007). The very existence of these island nations are threatened by sea level rise due to climate change. The leaders of Tuvalu and The Maldives brought considerable attention to their plight at the Copenhagen conference, and President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, in particular, has made his tiny country a force to be reckoned with in the coming battle.


Figure 1. President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, Vice President Dr Mohamed Waheed and 11 cabinet ministers donned scuba gear and submerged 4 meters below the surface of sea to hold the world's first underwater cabinet meeting on October 17, 2009, in order to dramatize the threat sea level rise poses to their country.

The leaders against greenhouse gas reductions
Canada has joined Saudi Arabia as a leading voice against efforts to control emissions of greenhouse gases. According to The Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), which is published annually by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe, Canada ranks second to last in climate policy and in overall efforts to tackle climate change, among the 57 industrialized countries and emerging economies that together account for more than 90 per cent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. Canada's national statement at COP15 featured no commitments of money or targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and Canada also lobbied to change the "base" year from when emission reductions should be computed from 1990 to 2006. Croatia was the only other country to support Canada's position. The notorious political pranksters The Yes Men dramatized Canada's position by issuing a phony press release during COP15 claiming that Canada had come to its senses and was now going to work toward a 40 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions, the type of cut scientists say is necessary if we are to avoid dangerous warming of more than 2°C over pre-industrial levels. Canadian reporters immediately recognized the news release as a hoax. Canadian politics is heavily dominated by the fossil fuel industry, and Canadian reporters immediately saw the impossibility of the Canadian government performing an about-face on climate policy.


Figure 2. The top ten and bottom ten performing countries on the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), published annually by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe to rank the efforts to combat climate change of the 57 industrialized countries and emerging economies that together account for more than 90 per cent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. The ranking system factors in three scores: the emissions level (CO2 per primary energy unit, primary energy unit per GDP, and primary energy unit per capita); the emissions trend (whether emissions are rising or falling), and a subjective rating of the nation's national and international climate policy. Tall bars indicate a higher ranking, and thin bars represent a poor ranking. None of the 57 countries were doing enough to keep global warming below 2°C, so the top three spots on the list were left blank. Image credit: Germanwatch.org.

Comparison with the battle over CFC regulations and the ozone hole
On June 28, 1974, Sherry Rowland and Mario Molina, chemists at the University of California, Irvine, published the first scientific paper warning that human-generated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could cause serious harm to Earth's protective ozone layer (Molina and Rowland, 1974). They calculated that if CFC production continued to increase at the going rate of 10%/year until 1990, then remain steady, CFCs would cause a global 5 to 7 percent ozone loss by 1995 and 30 - 50% loss by 2050.

They warned that the loss of ozone would significantly increase the amount of skin-damaging ultraviolet UV-B light reaching the surface, greatly increasing skin cancer and cataracts. The loss of stratospheric ozone could also significantly cool the stratosphere, potentially causing destructive climate change. Although no stratospheric ozone loss had been observed yet, CFCs should be banned, they said. A huge international political battle ensued, one that eerily echoes many of the same themes as the battle over global warming. In a 1984 interview in The New Yorker, Dr. Rowland concluded, "Nothing will be done about this problem until there is further evidence that a significant loss of ozone has occurred. Unfortunately, this means that if there is a disaster in the making in the stratosphere we are probably not going to avoid it." These prophetic words were proved true the very next year with the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. Speedy action to save the planet from potentially disastrous loss of the ozone layer was realized with the swift implementation of the Montreal Protocol two years later, though.

As was the case with the battle over the CFCs and the ozone layer, I expect it will take a obvious imminent climate change disaster to motivate governments to take strong action. I believed in September 2007 that such an event had occurred, when the Arctic ice cap lost more than half of its area, compared to levels observed in the early 1950s. I was astounded at the nonchalance the event earned in the press and among politicians. But, in hindsight I should not have been surprised, since the stakes are very much higher than the battle to ban CFCs--now we are talking about the fossil fuel industry, the very basis for our modern industrialized society. A very big, very obvious disaster in the making will probably be needed to motivate strong enough action to make a major difference in CO2 emissions. Our climate is certainly capable of generating such an event in the coming decade. Unfortunately, if we wait until a disaster is obviously imminent, we will have far less time to prevent a climate disaster than we had for the ozone depletion crisis. The lifetime of CFCs in the atmosphere is 50 - 140 years, but a substantial portion of the CO2 put in the air stays for thousands of years. According to the 2007 IPCC report, "About 50% of a CO2 increase will be removed from the atmosphere within 30 years, and a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries. The remaining 20% may stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years."

References
McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson, 2007, "The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones", Environment & Urbanization, 19(1), 17-37.

Molina, M.J., and F.S. Rowland, "Stratospheric Sink for Chlorofluoromethanes: Chlorine Atom-Catalyzed Destruction of Ozone", Nature 249, 810-812, 1974.

Next post
Have a great Christmas, everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday (at the latest).

Jeff Masters

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1538. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



gfs-mrf
global forecast system/medium range forcast


Thanks Keeper, but that is too cold for me. Any way you can adjust those colors? I don't function well below 70 deg.
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1537. hydrus
Quoting presslord:
good Lord Drak...take that down...it's depressing...Happy Kwanzaa, btw...
Lol. This is only the beginning Press. Nor-Easters, blizzards, ice-storms and squall lines. Should be interesting to see how this winter evolves. This is not a doomcast, I call them as I sees um>:)
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yep
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Drak..if the yellows are the 30's...I assume the blues are the 20's?
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Hope that holds true Drak. Gonna hit the 80's again before the weekend.
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good Lord Drak...take that down...it's depressing...Happy Kwanzaa, btw...
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1532. Drakoen
30s (yellow) all the way down to the Dade County:



U.S.A next week Sunday morning minimum temps:

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1531. hydrus
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


2 hrs 40 mins.
We will go see it next weekend. Must buy extra popcorn & soda for 2 hour 40 minute movie.
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Quoting GrtLksQuest:


What does OrcaS think about sharing SWMBO?



Its too catchy and makes perfect sense. "Imitation is the most sincere form of flattery" someone much smarter than me once opined.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
Quoting hydrus:
Someone said it is a long movie, 3 hours long.


2 hrs 40 mins.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
Quoting tornadodude:
From Wiki:

Jim Caldwell (born January 16, 1955 in Beloit, Wisconsin) is the current head coach of the Indianapolis Colts. He also served as the head coach of Wake Forest from 1993 to 2000. He had a career collegiate record of 26-63. He has served as an assistant coach at the University of Iowa, Southern Illinois University, Northwestern, Colorado, Louisville, and Penn State. Caldwell was a four-year starter at defensive back for the University of Iowa in the late 1970s. Caldwell is also a member of Kappa Alpha Psi Fraternity Inc. Caldwell holds the record for the best start by a rookie head coach, starting his career with 14 wins. On December 27th Peyton Manning murdered Caldwell for benching him.


That edit was by an anonymous IP editor, who reverted another IP editor after reverting his/her insertion. I just reverted that edit and removed the uncited information.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
drop by my blog for updated info about every 6 hrs next model update near or just after midnight

Link


http://farm1.static.flickr.com/165/427972070_f0ae71447b_o.gif

KOG's Code of Ethics is something I subscribe to and hope we asll do.
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Quoting aquak9:
hydrus- us natives don't run around on the beach when there's highs in the seventies.

We're wearing sweaters at that temp.


Wow. That's about 22 - 26C, and at that temperature people in Canada usually wear T-shirts and sometimes shorts, especially if it's sunny. We often get people wearing T-shirts below freezing, sometimes as cold as -10C (-12F) if it's not too windy, even if I can't stand wearing anything less than a sweater on top of a T-shirt (although usually I'd be wearing a winter jacket at that temp) if it's below freezing!
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Just got back from seeing AVATAR with SWMBO and my kid. Great movie!


What does OrcaS think about sharing SWMBO?
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Wow! Everyone should go to KOG's blog and read...no...memorize...the Blogger's Code of Ethics posted there...
Link
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Evening, everybody. :)

A cold event for FLA. Wow...

I think Floridians are so lucky sometimes. To them, 55 degrees is like an ice age. 55 degrees feels SO GREAT to Northerners around this time of year (so that means I'm happy today)! But that's climate for you. :P

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1522. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
drop by my blog for updated info about every 6 hrs next model update near or just after midnight

Link
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1521. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:
Just caught up on the blog. How cold is it supposed to get in S. Fla? Or are you guys just kidding?



gfs-mrf
global forecast system/medium range forcast
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1520. Patrap
GFSx 10-Day Loop thru 6 Dec
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Miami NWS Discussion:

EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PATTERN SIMILAR IN LONG RANGE
MODELS BUT GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE ON HANDLING THE DETAILS. THE FORMER
INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIVING INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENING THE SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING A DEEPER SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF
THAT DIVES SE AND ACROSS S FLA FRI. BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH S FLA NEW YEARS DAY BUT THE TIMING OF PASSAGE AND THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE LATTER HAS A MORE
SHALLOW LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAKER LOW THAT MOVES THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE SE U.S. AND NE TOWARD THE MID ATLC STATES. BEHIND THE
FRONT...REALLY COLD AIR MAY FLOW DOWN THE FLA PENINSULA AFFECTING S
FLA A WEEK FROM TODAY.

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1518. hydrus
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Just got back from seeing AVATAR with SWMBO and my kid. Great movie!
Someone said it is a long movie, 3 hours long.
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1517. Grothar
Just caught up on the blog. How cold is it supposed to get in S. Fla? Or are you guys just kidding?
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Finally!! It snowed yesterday and today, but very little accumalations. However, the recent Texas low has given us far more snow than rain (even though the centre has STILL not passed over us yet), so much of the snow on the ground had melted.


We have about 4 inches of new snow. We get that lovely fluffy lake-effect stuff. Our lake (a 500-acre shallow inland lake) is frozen over and snow-covered. Looking good for cross-country skiing and snowshoeing.

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1515. Grothar
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


? Please educate me. The headless boy? St. Sigmund's Day?


Isn't that the day St. Olafians celebrate....hay?
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Just got back from seeing AVATAR with SWMBO and my kid. Great movie!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
1513. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
model run from top of the world view

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1512. aquak9
back in the day, eh hydrus? nowadays- no fires, no rums, just aimless wanderings of drunk teenagers and homeless folks on the local beaches at night.

Bordonaro- I do remember the late 70's, early 80's winters here as being brutal..
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Quoting Bordonaro:


If you live in Ontario, I am sure you will finally be getting your Arctic cold and snow!


Finally!! It snowed yesterday and today, but very little accumalations. However, the recent Texas low has given us far more snow than rain (even though the centre has STILL not passed over us yet), so much of the snow on the ground had melted.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
1509. Patrap
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
CAMP SPRINGS, MD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION


SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
409 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2009

VALID 00Z MON DEC 28 2009 - 12Z TUE DEC 29 2009

THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...THE FORMER BLIZZARD THAT IMPACTED THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING CHRISTMAS. DESPITE THE CONTINUED WEAKENING...ENOUGH ENERGY
AND MOISTURE ARE STILL AVAILABLE TO GENERATE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SNOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW EVOLVES TO AN OPEN
WAVE. AS THE WAVE SWINGS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST...NUMERICAL
GUIDANCES SHOW THAT IT WILL BE RE-ENERGIZED AS IT TAPES INTO
WARMER ATLANTIC AIR IN CONTRAST WITH THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR OVER
LAND. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS FROM
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT SWINGS TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE. AS THE
LOW DEPARTS...A PERIOD OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN
MAINE.

JUST AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS...A REPLENISHMENT OF ARCTIC AIR
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THE MAIN
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD PENETRATE NO FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BUT FOR THE GREAT LAKES...THIS
RENEWED ARCTIC INTRUSION MEANS A RENEWED AROUND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ON TUESDAY.

OVER THE WEST...A SLOWLY DISSIPATING SYSTEM WILL DELIVER A AROUND
OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COASTAL RAIN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH TUESDAY.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NUMERICAL GUIDANCES SHOW
THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE MEXICAN PLATEAU EARLY ON
TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS SUBTROPICAL JET. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...SNOW COULD BE FALLING FROM PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

KONG

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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1508. Patrap
60 Hour CONUS Forecast Surface Map

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The Siberian Arctic high pressure system is drifting over the Arctic into Canada, and the low pressure systems marching across the North Atlantic seem to be helping it by drawing Arctic airflow across the North American continent. Normally the Siberian High has the highest average seasonal pressures in the world at any time of the year, close to 1035 mb. But the fact that the high pressure system currently exceeds 1045 mb, and that it's drifting into northeastern Siberia, I find rather concerning. However, the deepest part of the High itself is located in the Barents Sea, and drifting completely into North America. Remember that Siberia frequently gets winter temperatures of -50C and colder, and when a part of the Siberian high drifted into Canada, a location near Edmonton, Alberta recorded a temperature of -46C, and on November 5 the coldest temperature this fall and winter in the city itself hit -36.5C. The high drifting into North America runs the risk of not only causing snowstorms in the deep south of the US, but also allowing winter storms that are usually blocked by the Siberian High to move across East Asia and strengthen, causing storms in China, Korea, and Japan. Already large storms have exploded in intensity after emerging from the Sea of Japan and feeding into the North Pacific Low, especially when Typhoon Nida was weakening. The nor'easters over the US are moving into Europe, then weakening after they cross the Aral Mountains. However if the Siberian High weakens over Siberia and stays in North America, the storms could traverse Central Asia and move east, and the circulation around these storms would move the high northward.

The current phase of El Nino is weakening the jet streams by reducing temperature contrasts, so storms and high pressure systems can move more quickly, and extreme temperatures result when air masses move to latitudes they normally do not inhabit. Entire semi-permanent air masses are actually crossing the Arctic Ocean, which is unusual and probably related to the Arctic diopole. Very intense storms are forming around the world, and where they intensify over water, sea surface temperatures are affected. The South Pacific warm anomaly (roughly 35S to 60S) is now more intense than the El Nino anomaly at the equator. The storms tracking across the Northeastern Pacific near Japan, and the storms emerging off the coast of the US, and changing the structure of the currents in the West Pacific and the Gulf Stream. Today, I noticed, a new branch of the warm Atlantic current emerged east of Bermuda, pointing toward Greenland. Here's today's global SST map:



Notice that the new branch is taking a shortcut in the Central Atlantic through the portion of the Gulf Stream that points toward Greenland, as would be expected by the continuous northwesterly airflow around intense North American storms as they stall in the area. The current Bermuda High, if you could call it that, is split into two parts: the weaker one centered over Morocco, and the stronger one south of Newfoundland (look at the initial slides for computer model runs). The warm water in the South Pacific is at the east end of the warm El Nino pool, bulging toward the area between the west end of the Ross Ice Shelf and Pine Island Bay in Antarctica. The 20C line to the southeast of the pool is moving closer to the coast of Chile, while the west end is drifting back toward Papua New Guinea, and so the Walker Circulation in the West Pacific is still strong, as a 31C pool of water emerged within the Central/East Pacific warm pool on Christmas Eve and disappeared today, and the SSTs north of Australia are getting warmer. It looks like a struggle between the weakening Humboldt and the equatorial trade winds, versus the El Nino warm pool and Equatorial Counter-Current.

The 18z GFS is predicting a severe nor'easter on January 1 - 5, dumping large amounts of snow over New England only when it emerges over the Atlantic. The Mississippi and other major rivers in the US are starting to flood after the snow in climatically warm areas is melting. However, the next storm forecast by the GFS for January 7 - 11 (these dates are for when the storm is predicted to give snowfall to parts of North America, ending when the storm tracks into Arctic regions), starts as an Alberta Clipper system and intensifies over the Great Lakes region (yikes, that's me!). Over a 24-hour period, the storm is expected to expand barometrically and intensify, absorbing moisture from the Bahamas to the Gulf, and emerge over the Atlantic as a Nor'easter system. This is not the usual mode of formation for nor'easters (AFAIK)! After that, the GFS expects the storm to absorb yet another Alberta Clipper system, this one more intense than the first, and then track north of Labrador at 959 hPa by the end of the model run. Since this storm is predicted to occur right when the cold Arctic airmass moves over Canada, it could be a major snow event for parts of eastern North America. Remember though that this particular (double) storm is two weeks away, so the model forecasts can change very rapidly. Here's two snapshots of the 18z run, at 300h and 336h respectively:





By the way, are the temperatures in the GFS forecasts in Celcius or Farenheit, and are they surface temps or at a height?

Also, strong storms are predicted for other places around the world, for example this one in the Southeastern Pacific by the GFS:

Link

Here are links for the same storm by other models: CMC and NOGAPS


I said recently that I would have my first blog post ready by this weekend. The first blog will be written today if I have time, and will address what I will often write in the blog, as well as a scoop of current weather conditions, mostly for Southern Ontario. I will cover many topics, but remember that I am not an expert in meteorology, just an amateur weather forecaster (and an amateur astronomer). I also might not blog on a regular basis (I am known to "procrastinate" with online activities) as I am sometimes busy on weekdays, especially next month. Also remember to take any predictions and inferences with a grain of salt, as I often make extreme predictions, especially for tropical cyclones. However, I do not intend to spread fear, so please do not dismiss me as alarmist.

I will also alternate between comments on Jeff Masters' blog and entries on my own blog, but hopefully I don't become too occupied with blogging on WeatherUnderground as that would take more time out of my other daily activities, including on other websites. Expect some occasional long posts (like this one), but I should break them into smaller posts and entires because some of my comments are even longer than Dr. Masters' blog entries! Also they can get boring and excessive to read. :)
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting aquak9:
made me look...

GFS MOS STILL CONSISTENTLY INDICATING
THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS OF THE SEASON BY SUN MORNING WITH TEMPS INTO
THE MID 20S OVER MANY INLAND AREAS.

That's NE Florida. Forget the beach.


Many in Florida wanted the weather to cool down, well, you may actually see the temps get knocked lower as tha models come into better agreement about how much cold air gets dumped into the US.

Notice the areas of High pressure over Canada and the Arctic!

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1505. hydrus
Quoting aquak9:
hydrus- us natives don't run around on the beach when there's highs in the seventies.

We're wearing sweaters at that temp.
What? I was born on Miami beach and raised on Captiva Island. Is not cold day at the beach better than no day at the beach? Absafrickenlutely....We just set some of those pine needles and driftwood on fire, and slam copious amounts of apple-butter-rum with cinnamon sticks, and the chilly day at the beach is whole lot better.jmo
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From Wiki:

Jim Caldwell (born January 16, 1955 in Beloit, Wisconsin) is the current head coach of the Indianapolis Colts. He also served as the head coach of Wake Forest from 1993 to 2000. He had a career collegiate record of 26-63. He has served as an assistant coach at the University of Iowa, Southern Illinois University, Northwestern, Colorado, Louisville, and Penn State. Caldwell was a four-year starter at defensive back for the University of Iowa in the late 1970s. Caldwell is also a member of Kappa Alpha Psi Fraternity Inc. Caldwell holds the record for the best start by a rookie head coach, starting his career with 14 wins. On December 27th Peyton Manning murdered Caldwell for benching him.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


? Please educate me. The headless boy? St. Sigmund's Day?


Like Christmas has Santa Claus...in St. Olaf, MN., St. Sigmund's Day has the headless boy. A running joke between a few of us on here. :)
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1502. aquak9
made me look...

GFS MOS STILL CONSISTENTLY INDICATING
THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS OF THE SEASON BY SUN MORNING WITH TEMPS INTO
THE MID 20S OVER MANY INLAND AREAS.

That's NE Florida. Forget the beach.
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Oh, wow! South Florida in the 30's and the 40's:

AZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-281100-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2009

...COOL WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND...


DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ON THE LOCAL WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK, FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN EVEN
STRONGER COLD FRONT.

MINIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE
RANGE FOR A LARGE PART OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, BY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH VALUES
POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. MINIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST COAST NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS,
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK.

A LINGERING GROUND SWELL THIS WEEK WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RIP CURRENTS MAINLY ALONG THE PALM BEACH BEACHES. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, TO RAISE THE THREAT FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THEN.

Portion of the Area forecast Discussion:

EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PATTERN SIMILAR IN LONG RANGE
MODELS BUT GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE ON HANDLING THE DETAILS. THE FORMER
INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES DIVING INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENING THE SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING A DEEPER SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF
THAT DIVES SE AND ACROSS S FLA FRI. BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH S FLA NEW YEARS DAY BUT THE TIMING OF PASSAGE AND THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE LATTER HAS A MORE
SHALLOW LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A WEAKER LOW THAT MOVES THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE SE U.S. AND NE TOWARD THE MID ATLC STATES. BEHIND THE
FRONT...REALLY COLD AIR MAY FLOW DOWN THE FLA PENINSULA AFFECTING S
FLA A WEEK FROM TODAY.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Pretty cold I think. I heard that on St. Sigmund's Day, the headless boy will be wearing a hoodie :)


? Please educate me. The headless boy? St. Sigmund's Day?
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1499. aquak9
hydrus- us natives don't run around on the beach when there's highs in the seventies.

We're wearing sweaters at that temp.
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Grothar, St Olaf, late Merry Christmas :o)!!

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Quoting Grothar:


Pretty cold I think. I heard that on St. Sigmund's Day, the headless boy will be wearing a hoodie :)
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1496. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I don't know where MSN gets their forecasts from:

Saturday
Jan 02 Partly Cloudy
Hi: 68� Lo: 40�

Sunday
Jan 03 Sunny (Clear)
Hi: 52� Lo: 45�

Monday
Jan 04 Mostly Sunny
Hi: 56� Lo: 48�

Tuesday
Jan 05 Mostly Sunny
Hi: 63

Any idea how cold it will get in St. Olaf?
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Quoting GrtLksQuest:


We are in SW Michigan, about 25 miles north of South Bend,IN.


oh ok, well I go to Purdue, so not too far away
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
I don't know where MSN gets their forecasts from:

Saturday
Jan 02 Partly Cloudy
Hi: 68 Lo: 40

Sunday
Jan 03 Sunny (Clear)
Hi: 52 Lo: 45

Monday
Jan 04 Mostly Sunny
Hi: 56 Lo: 48

Tuesday
Jan 05 Mostly Sunny
Hi: 63 Lo: 58
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1493. hydrus
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Depending on who you go by, our area (West Palm/Lake Worth, Fl) may be near or below freezing next weekend. Local met this morning said lows in upper 20's inland - low 30's locally. TWC forecast not as bullish.

Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)

Dec 27 Tonight
Cloudy. Low 59F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Dec 28 Tomorrow
Sunshine and clouds mixed. Slight chance of a rain shower. High near 75F. Winds NW at 10 to 20 mph.
Dec 28 Tomorrow night
Clear skies. Low 48F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph.
Dec 29 Tuesday
Mainly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 50s.
Dec 30 Wednesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Dec 31 Thursday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Jan 1 Friday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 50s.
Jan 2 Saturday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the low 50s.
Jan 3 Sunday
Plenty of sun. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 50s.
Jan 4 Monday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Jan 5 Tuesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
That forecast of yours is making me want to book a flight and hit the S.E.FL coast. Highs in the 70,s, rum & coke, and all those chicks running on the beach.:)
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Quoting Bordonaro:


If you live in Ontario, I am sure you will finally be getting your Arctic cold and snow!


We are in SW Michigan, about 25 miles north of South Bend,IN.
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Quoting tornadodude:


ok:

It's gonna be COLD!!!!!


Area Forecast Discussion, Fairbanks, AK. Notice the statement concerning the Arctic Low. As the Low deepens the ridge will break down, the colder air gets dumped into Canada:

Area Forecast Discussion

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
154 PM AKST SUN DEC 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS SLOWLY BUILDING OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND COMBINING WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ARCTIC. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BERING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LATE WEDNESDAY...A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE ARCTIC BRINGS IN COOLER
AIR AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE LOW...BUT COLDER AIR LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO
NORTHEASTERN AK FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&


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1490. hydrus
Quoting tornadodude:


ok:

It's gonna be COLD!!!!!
It will be so cold, that the snow itself will be complaining about how cold it is. to me that might be cold.
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Depending on who you go by, our area (West Palm/Lake Worth, Fl) may be near or below freezing next weekend. Local met this morning said lows in upper 20's inland - low 30's locally. TWC forecast not as bullish.

Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)

Dec 27 Tonight
Cloudy. Low 59F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Dec 28 Tomorrow
Sunshine and clouds mixed. Slight chance of a rain shower. High near 75F. Winds NW at 10 to 20 mph.
Dec 28 Tomorrow night
Clear skies. Low 48F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph.
Dec 29 Tuesday
Mainly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 50s.
Dec 30 Wednesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Dec 31 Thursday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Jan 1 Friday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 50s.
Jan 2 Saturday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the low 50s.
Jan 3 Sunday
Plenty of sun. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 50s.
Jan 4 Monday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Jan 5 Tuesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.
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Quoting GrtLksQuest:


We have had more snow than you but I still feel deprived when we see what Texas & Oklahoma have been getting.


If you live in Ontario, I am sure you will finally be getting your Arctic cold and snow!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.