The uncertain legacy of Copenhagen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:39 PM GMT on December 22, 2009

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The Copenhagen (COP15) climate summit is over, and leaves an uncertain legacy. What was accomplished in Copenhagen was far outweighed by what was not accomplished. While the final Copenhagen Accord affirmed that we must hold the warming of our planet below 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 to avert dangerous climate change, no timetable for accomplishing that goal was specified. The promises made by the various nations at the summit would likely lead to a 3.9°C warming of the planet, according to an analysis by MIT's Sustainability Institute. Copenhagen did demonstrate that the hype preceding the talks was not undeserved--the stakes involved are huge, and we have an epic political battle on our hands that will afford high drama in 2010. Probably the best summary of the political battle at Copenhagen was posted by author Mark Lynas on the UK Guardian's web site. The title of the article was, "How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room".

The leaders for greenhouse gas reductions
While the Copenhagen Summit made it clear that the coming battle will feature the U.S. and China, the voices of two tiny island nations--Tuvalu and The Maldives--will be important as well. When ranked by percentage of population located near the coast at an elevation of ten meters or less, the top five spots are held by small island nations with more than 90% of their population in this Low Elevation Coastal Zone--the Maldives, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos Islands (McGranahan et al., 2007). The very existence of these island nations are threatened by sea level rise due to climate change. The leaders of Tuvalu and The Maldives brought considerable attention to their plight at the Copenhagen conference, and President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, in particular, has made his tiny country a force to be reckoned with in the coming battle.


Figure 1. President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, Vice President Dr Mohamed Waheed and 11 cabinet ministers donned scuba gear and submerged 4 meters below the surface of sea to hold the world's first underwater cabinet meeting on October 17, 2009, in order to dramatize the threat sea level rise poses to their country.

The leaders against greenhouse gas reductions
Canada has joined Saudi Arabia as a leading voice against efforts to control emissions of greenhouse gases. According to The Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), which is published annually by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe, Canada ranks second to last in climate policy and in overall efforts to tackle climate change, among the 57 industrialized countries and emerging economies that together account for more than 90 per cent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. Canada's national statement at COP15 featured no commitments of money or targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and Canada also lobbied to change the "base" year from when emission reductions should be computed from 1990 to 2006. Croatia was the only other country to support Canada's position. The notorious political pranksters The Yes Men dramatized Canada's position by issuing a phony press release during COP15 claiming that Canada had come to its senses and was now going to work toward a 40 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions, the type of cut scientists say is necessary if we are to avoid dangerous warming of more than 2°C over pre-industrial levels. Canadian reporters immediately recognized the news release as a hoax. Canadian politics is heavily dominated by the fossil fuel industry, and Canadian reporters immediately saw the impossibility of the Canadian government performing an about-face on climate policy.


Figure 2. The top ten and bottom ten performing countries on the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), published annually by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe to rank the efforts to combat climate change of the 57 industrialized countries and emerging economies that together account for more than 90 per cent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. The ranking system factors in three scores: the emissions level (CO2 per primary energy unit, primary energy unit per GDP, and primary energy unit per capita); the emissions trend (whether emissions are rising or falling), and a subjective rating of the nation's national and international climate policy. Tall bars indicate a higher ranking, and thin bars represent a poor ranking. None of the 57 countries were doing enough to keep global warming below 2°C, so the top three spots on the list were left blank. Image credit: Germanwatch.org.

Comparison with the battle over CFC regulations and the ozone hole
On June 28, 1974, Sherry Rowland and Mario Molina, chemists at the University of California, Irvine, published the first scientific paper warning that human-generated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could cause serious harm to Earth's protective ozone layer (Molina and Rowland, 1974). They calculated that if CFC production continued to increase at the going rate of 10%/year until 1990, then remain steady, CFCs would cause a global 5 to 7 percent ozone loss by 1995 and 30 - 50% loss by 2050.

They warned that the loss of ozone would significantly increase the amount of skin-damaging ultraviolet UV-B light reaching the surface, greatly increasing skin cancer and cataracts. The loss of stratospheric ozone could also significantly cool the stratosphere, potentially causing destructive climate change. Although no stratospheric ozone loss had been observed yet, CFCs should be banned, they said. A huge international political battle ensued, one that eerily echoes many of the same themes as the battle over global warming. In a 1984 interview in The New Yorker, Dr. Rowland concluded, "Nothing will be done about this problem until there is further evidence that a significant loss of ozone has occurred. Unfortunately, this means that if there is a disaster in the making in the stratosphere we are probably not going to avoid it." These prophetic words were proved true the very next year with the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. Speedy action to save the planet from potentially disastrous loss of the ozone layer was realized with the swift implementation of the Montreal Protocol two years later, though.

As was the case with the battle over the CFCs and the ozone layer, I expect it will take a obvious imminent climate change disaster to motivate governments to take strong action. I believed in September 2007 that such an event had occurred, when the Arctic ice cap lost more than half of its area, compared to levels observed in the early 1950s. I was astounded at the nonchalance the event earned in the press and among politicians. But, in hindsight I should not have been surprised, since the stakes are very much higher than the battle to ban CFCs--now we are talking about the fossil fuel industry, the very basis for our modern industrialized society. A very big, very obvious disaster in the making will probably be needed to motivate strong enough action to make a major difference in CO2 emissions. Our climate is certainly capable of generating such an event in the coming decade. Unfortunately, if we wait until a disaster is obviously imminent, we will have far less time to prevent a climate disaster than we had for the ozone depletion crisis. The lifetime of CFCs in the atmosphere is 50 - 140 years, but a substantial portion of the CO2 put in the air stays for thousands of years. According to the 2007 IPCC report, "About 50% of a CO2 increase will be removed from the atmosphere within 30 years, and a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries. The remaining 20% may stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years."

References
McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson, 2007, "The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones", Environment & Urbanization, 19(1), 17-37.

Molina, M.J., and F.S. Rowland, "Stratospheric Sink for Chlorofluoromethanes: Chlorine Atom-Catalyzed Destruction of Ozone", Nature 249, 810-812, 1974.

Next post
Have a great Christmas, everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday (at the latest).

Jeff Masters

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Greetings, from the small island of Britain. Where it is an almost perfect Winter Wonderland. Everything is covered in Frozen Substances, and the forecast calls for freezing fog, (whatever that is)and continuing ice warnings with Arctic breezes.
A train voyage from Bournemouth, on the south coast, to London town yesterday was very pretty with post=card type views of snow-covered countrysideand trees with white branches.
Very peculiar to me.
Looking at the satelite images of the tropics this morning has made me feel like I am in the
wrong place somehow.

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Quoting SouthALWX:
not at all. More amusing than anything else. I could never put that much thought into something like the carbon footprint of a dog.


Ah - I know most people wouldn't, so you're not alone. For me there is some environmental motivation, but we don't have a lot of money, and I've found it's usually less expensive when you do what is also environmentally sound. The bottom line when it comes to the dogs is that we spend less money on them than the usual cost for pets their size, and they are healthier for it, too.

I'm also interested in deep economics and deep ecology, and getting at what our living habits really cost us. I know not everyone cares about that, but I enjoy learning about it and experimenting, and being an early adopter of things I think are likely to be worthwhile. It's turned out to be a great economic benefit. (I've written before about not having to pay electric bills any more, because we bought solar panels years ago.)

Anyway, I enjoy growing some food and learning about simpler living, but I realize not everyone is interested in all that.
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397
fxus64 klix 230538
afdlix

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1138 PM CST Tuesday Dec 22 2009

Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail for much of tonight and during the day
Wednesday for the taf sites. Mainly middle and high level clouds are
expected early in the period with ceilings around 5k feet moving
into area during the early morning hours. MVFR ceilings will be
possible at times during the early morning time fame at both kmcb
and kbtr. A few showers will be possible at kmcb and kbtr during
the late morning and afternoon...but should hold off at kmsy and
kgpt until Wednesday evening/night. Prevailing MVFR ceilings are
forecast for both kmcb and kbtr Wednesday evening along with
increasing rain chances. 11


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 826 PM CST Tuesday Dec 22 2009/


Update...
updated to beef up cloud cover and to adapt temperature and dew
point grids to reality...as most of The Drop off in both values
has already occurred. Cirrus deck should be prevalent the rest of
the night. 35


Sounding discussion...
evening sounding still rather dry with precipitable water values
around 2/3 of an inch. Boundary layer inversion at 900 feet...a
stronger one around 4000 feet. Southeast winds at the surface
become southwest around 850 mb. Any significant moisture is
limited to that portion of the sounding above 500 mb...thus the
cirrus deck. 35


Previous discussion... /issued 356 PM CST Tuesday Dec 22 2009/


Short term...
synoptic flow beginning to respond to the strengthening pressure
gradient out west. Wind speeds should continue to be elevated
through the night keeping any chance of fog at Bay. Winds will
continue to also bring an abundance of moisture back to the area
from the deep Gulf. Moisture loading is already occurring over
East Texas where sh/ts are breaking out. Only light showers expected
for the northern most tier of our area tonight and a good portion
of Wednesday. The main ts areas will wait until there is enough support
upstairs to get started. Nice 30h divergent slot moves across a
warm front that manages to move to near the miss/la east west
border by early Thursday morning. The warm front will become a focus
for ts activity but moreso helping these ts get connected with
this split flow aloft from lft to btr to mcb. The slower movement of
the warm front could cause some heavier precipitation amounts as well.
This all starts out around midnight Wednesday night along the warm front
that will be located from lft to Slidell to near Mobile then out
into the Gulf. Showers should be the main feature along the warm
front east of the lft to btr area. But where the convection is
able to tap the better dynamics aloft...there will be a few that
could become severe. As the warm front moves north we should see
the ts become stronger as it approaches the miss state line. Now
for the cold front and associated squall line.


A strong 50-55kt jet just above the boundary layer will exist and
this will get caught up in several ts downbursts. Dry air will
quickly move in behind this squall line forcing it east quickly.
The speed of the line...negative buoyancy due to dry air intrusion and rain
shafts causing the 50kt jet to dive to the surface will cause several
if not many ts to Bow along the main line. Quite simply...there
should be a very good potential to see many severe ts with straight
line wind damage. Tornadic potential will also be present. As
strong southeast winds fall into the very weak wind speeds of the trough
axis...it will cause numerous microscale vorticies. These small
spinups will get advected northward along the squall line with the
main synoptic flow(solenoidal advection). When these areas fall
into a larger bowing segment...they can add to the strength of the
vorticity center located on either end of the Bow and may cause a
temporary spinup creating a tornado. All that said to simply say there
will be the possibility of tornadoes ahead and along the main line
of ts.


Long term...
once the cold front moves through...some very cold air will begin
to move into the area. Temperatures should struggle to reach 50 in many
areas Friday and Sat. Another in a line of several Gulf lows will
begin to affect the area by next weekend. With two more systems
slated for the area before the end of the year...we should easily
beat the all time wettest month on record at msy since we only
need about .18" of rain for the site.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133453
xcool..we need a Jan 15th Map as I turn half a century that Day,soon.

Dec 11th 2008 NOLA


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133453
134. xcool





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133. xcool





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not at all. More amusing than anything else. I could never put that much thought into something like the carbon footprint of a dog.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

Oh no he just didn't ...
XD to each his own I guess.


Was there something about what I wrote that was offensive to you?
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talking about sea level


Sea level may rise 30 feet this century, new study shows


NEW YORK — Global warming in this century might raise sea levels more than expected in future centuries, says a study that looked at what happened at a time when Neanderthals roamed Europe.

Unless global warming is curbed or expensive measures are taken to hold back rising water, the projected sea level rise could submerge about one-third of Florida, southern Manhattan, much of Bangladesh and almost all the Netherlands, for example, researchers said.

An expert praised the work but cautioned that such projections can't be made with precision.

Earth naturally alternates between ice ages and warmer times, due to changes in the tilt of the planet and its orbit around the sun. It is now in a warmer spell that began about 10,000 years ago. But scientists say that man-made, heat-trapping gases are driving the warming beyond the natural amount.

Warmth can raise sea levels by expanding water volume and melting huge sheets of ice in Greenland and Antarctica. To get an idea of what future warming might do to sea levels, scientists at Princeton and Harvard universities looked at Earth's last warm period, which peaked about 125,000 years ago. It's sometimes called the Eemian stage.

During this time, Neanderthals lived in Europe and elephants roamed what is now southern Britain and New York state. Lions prowled and hippos bathed in France, Spain and Italy. But such animals were different species from their cousins in Africa today, adapted to different temperatures.

So what happened to sea level during the warm Eemian stage? Previous studies have estimated that the global sea level was about 13 feet to 20 feet higher than today.

The new report, published in Thursday's issue of the journal Nature, says sea levels almost certainly peaked at more than 22 feet higher than today. In fact, it probably rose between 26 feet and 30 feet, resear-chers concluded.

Temperatures at the north and south poles — critical for triggering ice melt — could return to Eemian levels again if the global temperature rises about 4 degrees (2 degrees Celsius), the researchers said



Link
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Quoting jpritch:


I'm not sure if you pointed this out because you thought it was silly, or because you think it's important.

It's something I've thought a lot about, since we have two dogs and have tried to work our way toward a much smaller footprint. Pets need not have so large a footprint as the article indicates though. As with most things, it takes some thought and research, and perhaps a little less frequent use of convenience items to shift the balance.

Our dogs do eat some prepared dog food, but it is organic and sustainably produced, like most of the rest of our family's food. It's also grain-free. They only eat about 3/4 of a cup a day each - which is a lot less than what most 50-60 lb. dogs go through, so even though the food is expensive, we pay less overall because we're not buying much of it.

They get some of the protein they need from our meat and egg scraps that would otherwise go to waste, some from the dodgy ends of our cottage cheese and yogurt containers, and some from the tilapia tank in the back yard. (They would fish if I let them, which I don't, but they do get fresh, tasty fish parts and occasionally whole fish.)

They have also grown up eating a great variety of fruits and vegetables. We grow pears, apples, plums, pecans, squashes, carrots, sweet potatoes, melons, green beans, tomatoes, greens, berries, and many other things they love. Usually they get bits that are less than perfect, or a little over-ripe, peelings, trimmings, leftovers, and the like. There's usually plenty, especially combined with odds and ends from fruits and veggies that we buy. (We also grow some citrus fruits, but though they like oranges and tangerines and will lick the lemons and limes, we limit those, as they're not very good for them.)

In return, they give us a lot of love and attention. They keep me company on walks and backpacking trips. They do a bang-up tongue-job of preparing all our glass and plastic food containers for recycling, and preparing most of our dishes for the dishwasher, eliminating the need for using water to rinse them. They guard the house and keep the kitchen floor spotless. :)

All in all, I think it's a fair trade.

Oh no he just didn't ...
XD to each his own I guess.
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Quoting Ossqss:
Howdy, I thought this quite interesting.

What's next --- :)

How green is your pet?


I'm not sure if you pointed this out because you thought it was silly, or because you think it's important.

It's something I've thought a lot about, since we have two dogs and have tried to work our way toward a much smaller footprint. Pets need not have so large a footprint as the article indicates though. As with most things, it takes some thought and research, and perhaps a little less frequent use of convenience items to shift the balance.

Our dogs do eat some prepared dog food, but it is organic and sustainably produced, like most of the rest of our family's food. It's also grain-free. They only eat about 3/4 of a cup a day each - which is a lot less than what most 50-60 lb. dogs go through, so even though the food is expensive, we pay less overall because we're not buying much of it.

They get some of the protein they need from our meat and egg scraps that would otherwise go to waste, some from the dodgy ends of our cottage cheese and yogurt containers, and some from the tilapia tank in the back yard. (They would fish if I let them, which I don't, but they do get fresh, tasty fish parts and occasionally whole fish.)

They have also grown up eating a great variety of fruits and vegetables. We grow pears, apples, plums, pecans, squashes, carrots, sweet potatoes, melons, green beans, tomatoes, greens, berries, and many other things they love. Usually they get bits that are less than perfect, or a little over-ripe, peelings, trimmings, leftovers, and the like. There's usually plenty, especially combined with odds and ends from fruits and veggies that we buy. (We also grow some citrus fruits, but though they like oranges and tangerines and will lick the lemons and limes, we limit those, as they're not very good for them.)

In return, they give us a lot of love and attention. They keep me company on walks and backpacking trips. They do a bang-up tongue-job of preparing all our glass and plastic food containers for recycling, and preparing most of our dishes for the dishwasher, eliminating the need for using water to rinse them. They guard the house and keep the kitchen floor spotless. :)

All in all, I think it's a fair trade.
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Beell, thanks for your home made Christmas card! I thought you were pointing out the "omega" block :0)

Happy Holidays Comments and Graphics for MySpace, Tagged, Facebook
Comments and Graphics - Happy Holidays Layouts - Photobucket />
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Dust Storm in the Phoenix Metro Area causes a 30-40 car pile-up on I-10, with 3 fatalities, 14 injuries, LINK below:

Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
The Washington Post newspaper's web site has a story (voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2009/12/images_of_a_monster_east_coast.html) about the recent nor'easter that credits WU (for radar).
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124. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:
119: Wow, beell. Fujiwhara dance of sugar plum fairies mid level winter troughs?
(Couldn't be...could it?)



Some kinda dance, atmo. A second low may keep the Gulf moisture streaming up that way for a while longer. If not, as the cold air wraps in S around the mid low the GOM moisture and strong WAA gets cut off somewhat.

A stall has been a consistently modeled feature due to the downstream block, Bordo. Also would account for a possible westward/retrograde drift of the whole mess!
A good discussion from those guys.

Wow, isn't anyone gonna say they liked my Christmas Card? i made it myself...
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123. BtnTx
-
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119. Talk about one messed up system! I read through their Area Forecast Discussion and the meteorologists have their work cut out for them.

Looks like a prelonged period of rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow event for IA. The max snow totals Sioux Falls, SD is expecting is 18-21". IF this system stalls, I hate to see the snow totals there.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
119: Wow, beell. Fujiwhara dance of sugar plum fairies mid level winter troughs?
(Couldn't be...could it?)
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wow. i think i saw a weather map,, is it christmas , already?
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119. beell
Here's an oddball chart! A pair of surface lows a day apart-merging over Iowa. No way (maybe?)!



Brought on by a pair of Omega blocks sharing a central CONUS trough for Christmas. Leading to a semi-stuck mid level low in the northern Plains/Midwest and a complicated surface/precip-type forecast.

Photobucket

Des Moines will be working overtime to wrap up their etc's for Christmas.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
538 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STORY OBVIOUSLY IS THE POWERFUL STORM SET TO AFFECT OUR AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY EVEN AS THE STORM DRAWS CLOSER
THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN SOME ASPECTS OF THEIR
SOLUTIONS WHICH IS VERY ATYPICAL. THIS IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
ANOTHER STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CANADA...WHICH WILL SWING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MONTANA BY TOMORROW
NIGHT AND INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM CYCLONE WHICH WILL BE
ROUGHLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THAT TIME. THE MODELS ARE HAVING
A LOT OF DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...WHICH IS PRODUCING VERY ERRATIC RESULTS IN THE BEHAVIOR OF
NOT ONLY THE MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERS BUT THE SURFACE LOWS AS
WELL...WHICH OF COURSE IN TURN EFFECTS THERMAL FIELDS...PRECIP
TYPES...TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE ADVECTION...QPFS...ETC. ETC.
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Segments of society would only be happy if humans were eliminated from the planet.

...good grief...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10513
OMG!
Next, global warming will make ED worse, too!!!!
*yes, I know he is about to say "Well, actually"*

L8R.
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You know what I find fascinating about all of this? Segments of society would only be happy if humans were eliminated from the planet. There are "scientists" who falsify data to obtain their desired outcomes. Some "scientists" refuse to share data to confirm or deny a hypothesis. The nuclear power option is verboten as a viable alternative energy source. There are idiots who really, really believe that wind power can free us from fossil fuels and provide a sustainable energy source for our electricity-hungry societies. There are people who believe that human activities have a greater impact on the planet than volcanic eruptions, organic decay, and the activity of trillions of other organisms.

What I find interesting is that there are people (mostly the same as the above) that believe that nations led by petty dictators, communist, religious zealots will actually abide by the agreements they make. Even more interesting is that all can be made well by a financial scheme worthy of any criminal syndicate called carbon trading. Further, the scheme is nothing more than a massive wealth transfer.

And based on what? Computer based climate models based on assumptions. Assumptions made based on a thimble full of information out of an ocean of data. You have to be kidding me? Current assumptions do not fit your preconceived notion then guess what? They change the assumptions to fit their hypothesis.

I am more afraid of the assault on freedom by the global warming fanatics like Al Gore, Prince Charles, and the mindless minions of pop culture who line up behind this whole mess. I am more afraid of the politicians who see this as an opportunity to take even more control of our lives and our money to line the pockets of their favored constituents (that includes a tremendous number of scientists who feed at the government teat).

Now, flame on!

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Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah, I know all too well.

And the other way, too. Parts of Alaska are rising out of the ocean as fast as Louisiana is sinking into it.


The rise in Alaska is probably isostatic rebound, which may accelerate due to global warming, and this is actually causing more earthquakes in the area.


Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


im sorry, but no... even it it did raise 6 cm it would be 18+6 which is 24 i have no idea where you are getting 30 from...


The high point on the Wikipedia graph shows 32 cm, and the current best-fit line is above that on my graph. However, on the graph I posted the devriation from the best-fit line is not as strong.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2840
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I meant from late 1992 to 2009, that's 6 cm.
Look at my graph again. The best-fit line, if placed on the other graph would reach above 30 cm.

Okay. I see about 6 cm in both plots from 1992 to the end. So?

(Where is this acceleration?)

And, no, you cannot best fit one graph to another of a different unit and different scale by eyeball. By raw numbers...they agree perfectly.
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wow cold air diving deep into the country
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I meant from late 1992 to 2009, that's 6 cm.




Look at my graph again. The best-fit line, if placed on the other graph would reach above 30 cm.


im sorry, but no... even it it did raise 6 cm it would be 18+6 which is 24 i have no idea where you are getting 30 from...
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Your graph shows 25 millimeters over the highest peak of 1998 to today. 2.5 cm.

And you are looking at more than the 3 year average? Why would you want to look at weather-not-climate?

Still not seeing any acceleration of late. Only the lead up to 1997-98 ENSO sticks out.


I meant from late 1992 to 2009, that's 6 cm.


Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you cant use the natural variations for those graphs, you have to use the best fit line... and NO WHERE on the graph i posted did it reach 32 cm... from 1900-2000 it rose 18-20 cm...


Look at my graph again. The best-fit line, if placed on the other graph would reach above 30 cm.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2840
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Subsidence has occured in places such as Louisiana and the Netherlands, both vulnerable to sea level rise. Diversion of river sediment by levees, and in the case of Louisiana, oil extraction, has been the main cause.

Yeah, I know all too well.

And the other way, too. Parts of Alaska are rising out of the ocean as fast as Louisiana is sinking into it.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Again, look at the point for 1998, which was about 32 cm above 1900 levels. You'll see from my graph that recently sea levels have risen about 2 cm since 1998. That makes for about 34 cm of sea level rise.




Subsidence has occured in places such as Louisiana and the Netherlands, both vulnerable to sea level rise. Diversion of river sediment by levees, and in the case of Louisiana, oil extraction, has been the main cause.




You'll see that the final point is about 4 cm above the "0" line, but 1992 was about 2 cm below, that makes 6 cm.


you cant use the natural variations for those graphs, and the back line for my post 91 are actual observations, those jagged lines are satellite estimates which can be very erroneous
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Also to post 91, you'll see that the spike in 1998 was more than 30 cm above 1900 levels, and looking at the graph I've provided you can see that global sea levels have since surpassed that mark.

Your graph shows 25 millimeters over the highest peak of 1998 to today. 2.5 cm.

And you are looking at more than the 3 year average? Why would you want to look at weather-not-climate?

Still not seeing any acceleration of late. Only the lead up to 1997-98 ENSO sticks out.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


to me looking at that graph, it looks like were ready to head into another steep sea level decline not another rising period.


That's only if we were to head into another ice age immediately and global warming had not occured. However, things are playing out otherwise.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2840
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


i know you think that... but its not 30 cm no matter how much you think it is...


Again, look at the point for 1998, which was about 32 cm above 1900 levels. You'll see from my graph that recently sea levels have risen about 2 cm since 1998. That makes for about 34 cm of sea level rise.


Quoting atmoaggie:

Where there is subsidence? Not at any stable place, it hasn't.

I see VA posted a good plot of it.


Subsidence has occured in places such as Louisiana and the Netherlands, both vulnerable to sea level rise. Diversion of river sediment by levees, and in the case of Louisiana, oil extraction, has been the main cause.


Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


this graph says 4-4.5 cm...
which that about every 20 years equals 20 cm a century, hmmm that matches 1900-2000 interesting...


You'll see that the final point is about 4 cm above the "0" line, but 1992 was about 2 cm below, that makes 6 cm.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2840
Howdy, I thought this quite interesting.

What's next --- :)

How green is your pet?
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


That 23 inches is likely just a conservative estimate, and it does not factor in the possible beginnings of the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice sheets, which may take centuries but could easily initiate this century. The global sea levels would rise 7 and 6 metres respectively, but there are possible weak underbellies to both Ice Sheets: Jacobshavn Isbrae and Pine Island Bay. Also to post 91, you'll see that the spike in 1998 was more than 30 cm above 1900 levels, and looking at the graph I've provided you can see that global sea levels have since surpassed that mark.




No, but that was the result of post-glacial melting. However, you'll see that since the big melt, for the past 7,000 years global sea levels have been relatively stable, varying by probably no more than one metre. Recently, the sea level rise has picked up again.


to me looking at that graph, it looks like were ready to head into another steep sea level decline not another rising period.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Yes, they do. And in all directions, as related to this topic; some to protect assets, some to make their speculative investments fruitful, and others simply because fear sells ads.

Message aside, I love your lexicon and appropriate use of now-obscure words we, the lazy Americans and our vocabulary, have allowed to languish so.


Hey atmoaggie, I use obscure words all the time and you never compliment me!!! It takes me a long time to look some of them up, you know!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 28084
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


My bad, I misread the graph. However, I think it's likely that the rise has been closer to 30 cm, and higher in areas where subsidence has taken effect. Sea levels have risen 6 cm since late 1992 alone.



this graph says 4-4.5 cm...
which that about every 20 years equals 20 cm a century, hmmm that matches 1900-2000 interesting...
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Even the very worst IPCC scenario calls for 23 inches sea level rise by 2100. (was 35 inches in previous report) Real life looking like that pic? Not anytime soon. Not 4 meters.

They live where inches do count. They should be asking for land donations from friendly countries regardless of CO2. Mother nature has plans on reclaiming that piece of sea at some point.

Dr. M knew well what it was when including that "dramatization". Is drama, just like that we put on in the theatre in high school.


That 23 inches is likely just a conservative estimate, and it does not factor in the possible beginnings of the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice sheets, which may take centuries but could easily initiate this century. The global sea levels would rise 7 and 6 metres respectively, but there are possible weak underbellies to both Ice Sheets: Jacobshavn Isbrae and Pine Island Bay. Also to post 91, you'll see that the spike in 1998 was more than 30 cm above 1900 levels, and looking at the graph I've provided you can see that global sea levels have since surpassed that mark.


Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


humans cause this too?


No, but that was the result of post-glacial melting. However, you'll see that since the big melt, for the past 7,000 years global sea levels have been relatively stable, varying by probably no more than one metre. Recently, the sea level rise has picked up again.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2840


wow major squall line
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Sea level rise is expected to accelerate, and any slow down of the rise could easily be reversed if warm water seeps down into the "weak underbellies" of places such as Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Sea levels have risen prior to 1900, but mostly as a consequence of the end of the last ice age, and sea levels only recently started accelerating again. Currently, sea levels are close to 40 cm (16 inches) above 1900 levels, and it's plausible for a 2-metre rise to occur by 2100.

Where there is subsidence? Not at any stable place, it hasn't.

I see VA posted a good plot of it.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


My bad, I misread the graph. However, I think it's likely that the rise has been closer to 30 cm, and higher in areas where subsidence has taken effect. Sea levels have risen 6 cm since late 1992 alone.



i know you think that... but its not 30 cm no matter how much you think it is...
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Even the very worst IPCC scenario calls for 23 inches sea level rise by 2100. (was 35 inches in previous report) Real life looking like that pic? Not anytime soon. Not 4 meters.

They live where inches do count. They should be asking for land donations from friendly countries regardless of CO2. Mother nature has plans on reclaiming that piece of sea at some point.

Dr. M knew well what it was when including that "dramatization". Is drama, just like that we put on in the theatre in high school.


I know i'm not angry masters posted it, im just mad at people who stage this stuff, when all science even such that agrees with global warming doesnt support that scenario
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


First of all sea levels have only increased 18 cm since 1900... second it hasnt accelerated thats the point


My bad, I misread the graph. However, I think it's likely that the rise has been closer to 30 cm, and higher in areas where subsidence has taken effect. Sea levels have risen 6 cm since late 1992 alone.

Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2840


humans cause this too?
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as some one said,, you cannot please every one , every day,, or something to that effect,, if some one would be kind enuff to alert me when this turns back into a weather forum,, i would be grateful,,tyia, gregg
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GMO's are a great technology. Could have revolutionized farming and still might. It enables no-till practices, stops erosion and allows farmers to use far less chemicals. I worked on Clearfield* rice at LSU. Its amazing the possibilities.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
That picture Dr. Masters posted pisses me off so much...

Link

Sea level is rising 2.5 mm a year at most since 1900... It would take over 2000 years of sea level rise for that to even possibly occur... Plus sea level has been rising before us evil humans had the Industrial evolution, explain that AGW conspirators.

Even the very worst IPCC scenario calls for 23 inches sea level rise by 2100. (was 35 inches in previous report) Real life looking like that pic? Not anytime soon. Not 4 meters.

They live where inches do count. They should be asking for land donations from friendly countries regardless of CO2. Mother nature has plans on reclaiming that piece of sea at some point.

Dr. M knew well what it was when including that "dramatization". Is drama, just like that we put on in the theatre in high school.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Sea level rise is expected to accelerate, and any slow down of the rise could easily be reversed if warm water seeps down into the "weak underbellies" of places such as Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Sea levels have risen prior to 1900, but mostly as a consequence of the end of the last ice age, and sea levels only recently started accelerating again. Currently, sea levels are close to 40 cm (16 inches) above 1900 levels, and it's plausible for a 2-metre rise to occur by 2100.


First of all sea levels have only increased 18 cm since 1900... second it hasnt accelerated thats the point


I dont see any acceleration here
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< "Greed is good"; this capitalist credo, doesn't appear to work as well, when deceased?!.

Why should I work hard to provide for others if we are all going die? Hell, we should sit back and relax. Innovation will sustain itself.
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89. Skyepony (Mod)
Monsanto awarded 'Angry Mermaid' lobbying prize

"Monsanto was nominated for promoting its genetically modified (GM) crops as a solution to climate change and pushing for its crops to be used as biofuels. The expansion of GM soy in Latin America is contributing to major deforestation and greenhouse-gas emissions," the nomination ran.

In a web-based poll of 10,000 people, some 3,700 tipped Monsanto as the most aggressive and inappropriate lobbyist, ahead of oil giant Shell (1,800 votes) and the American Petroleum Institute (1,400 votes).
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Someone posted a Christmas card earlier .. Does any one have it still?
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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