The uncertain legacy of Copenhagen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:39 PM GMT on December 22, 2009

Share this Blog
7
+

The Copenhagen (COP15) climate summit is over, and leaves an uncertain legacy. What was accomplished in Copenhagen was far outweighed by what was not accomplished. While the final Copenhagen Accord affirmed that we must hold the warming of our planet below 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 to avert dangerous climate change, no timetable for accomplishing that goal was specified. The promises made by the various nations at the summit would likely lead to a 3.9°C warming of the planet, according to an analysis by MIT's Sustainability Institute. Copenhagen did demonstrate that the hype preceding the talks was not undeserved--the stakes involved are huge, and we have an epic political battle on our hands that will afford high drama in 2010. Probably the best summary of the political battle at Copenhagen was posted by author Mark Lynas on the UK Guardian's web site. The title of the article was, "How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room".

The leaders for greenhouse gas reductions
While the Copenhagen Summit made it clear that the coming battle will feature the U.S. and China, the voices of two tiny island nations--Tuvalu and The Maldives--will be important as well. When ranked by percentage of population located near the coast at an elevation of ten meters or less, the top five spots are held by small island nations with more than 90% of their population in this Low Elevation Coastal Zone--the Maldives, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos Islands (McGranahan et al., 2007). The very existence of these island nations are threatened by sea level rise due to climate change. The leaders of Tuvalu and The Maldives brought considerable attention to their plight at the Copenhagen conference, and President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, in particular, has made his tiny country a force to be reckoned with in the coming battle.


Figure 1. President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, Vice President Dr Mohamed Waheed and 11 cabinet ministers donned scuba gear and submerged 4 meters below the surface of sea to hold the world's first underwater cabinet meeting on October 17, 2009, in order to dramatize the threat sea level rise poses to their country.

The leaders against greenhouse gas reductions
Canada has joined Saudi Arabia as a leading voice against efforts to control emissions of greenhouse gases. According to The Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), which is published annually by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe, Canada ranks second to last in climate policy and in overall efforts to tackle climate change, among the 57 industrialized countries and emerging economies that together account for more than 90 per cent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. Canada's national statement at COP15 featured no commitments of money or targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and Canada also lobbied to change the "base" year from when emission reductions should be computed from 1990 to 2006. Croatia was the only other country to support Canada's position. The notorious political pranksters The Yes Men dramatized Canada's position by issuing a phony press release during COP15 claiming that Canada had come to its senses and was now going to work toward a 40 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions, the type of cut scientists say is necessary if we are to avoid dangerous warming of more than 2°C over pre-industrial levels. Canadian reporters immediately recognized the news release as a hoax. Canadian politics is heavily dominated by the fossil fuel industry, and Canadian reporters immediately saw the impossibility of the Canadian government performing an about-face on climate policy.


Figure 2. The top ten and bottom ten performing countries on the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), published annually by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe to rank the efforts to combat climate change of the 57 industrialized countries and emerging economies that together account for more than 90 per cent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. The ranking system factors in three scores: the emissions level (CO2 per primary energy unit, primary energy unit per GDP, and primary energy unit per capita); the emissions trend (whether emissions are rising or falling), and a subjective rating of the nation's national and international climate policy. Tall bars indicate a higher ranking, and thin bars represent a poor ranking. None of the 57 countries were doing enough to keep global warming below 2°C, so the top three spots on the list were left blank. Image credit: Germanwatch.org.

Comparison with the battle over CFC regulations and the ozone hole
On June 28, 1974, Sherry Rowland and Mario Molina, chemists at the University of California, Irvine, published the first scientific paper warning that human-generated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could cause serious harm to Earth's protective ozone layer (Molina and Rowland, 1974). They calculated that if CFC production continued to increase at the going rate of 10%/year until 1990, then remain steady, CFCs would cause a global 5 to 7 percent ozone loss by 1995 and 30 - 50% loss by 2050.

They warned that the loss of ozone would significantly increase the amount of skin-damaging ultraviolet UV-B light reaching the surface, greatly increasing skin cancer and cataracts. The loss of stratospheric ozone could also significantly cool the stratosphere, potentially causing destructive climate change. Although no stratospheric ozone loss had been observed yet, CFCs should be banned, they said. A huge international political battle ensued, one that eerily echoes many of the same themes as the battle over global warming. In a 1984 interview in The New Yorker, Dr. Rowland concluded, "Nothing will be done about this problem until there is further evidence that a significant loss of ozone has occurred. Unfortunately, this means that if there is a disaster in the making in the stratosphere we are probably not going to avoid it." These prophetic words were proved true the very next year with the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. Speedy action to save the planet from potentially disastrous loss of the ozone layer was realized with the swift implementation of the Montreal Protocol two years later, though.

As was the case with the battle over the CFCs and the ozone layer, I expect it will take a obvious imminent climate change disaster to motivate governments to take strong action. I believed in September 2007 that such an event had occurred, when the Arctic ice cap lost more than half of its area, compared to levels observed in the early 1950s. I was astounded at the nonchalance the event earned in the press and among politicians. But, in hindsight I should not have been surprised, since the stakes are very much higher than the battle to ban CFCs--now we are talking about the fossil fuel industry, the very basis for our modern industrialized society. A very big, very obvious disaster in the making will probably be needed to motivate strong enough action to make a major difference in CO2 emissions. Our climate is certainly capable of generating such an event in the coming decade. Unfortunately, if we wait until a disaster is obviously imminent, we will have far less time to prevent a climate disaster than we had for the ozone depletion crisis. The lifetime of CFCs in the atmosphere is 50 - 140 years, but a substantial portion of the CO2 put in the air stays for thousands of years. According to the 2007 IPCC report, "About 50% of a CO2 increase will be removed from the atmosphere within 30 years, and a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries. The remaining 20% may stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years."

References
McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson, 2007, "The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones", Environment & Urbanization, 19(1), 17-37.

Molina, M.J., and F.S. Rowland, "Stratospheric Sink for Chlorofluoromethanes: Chlorine Atom-Catalyzed Destruction of Ozone", Nature 249, 810-812, 1974.

Next post
Have a great Christmas, everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday (at the latest).

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 588 - 538

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Um...wind shear in the Texas low is producing tornadic supercells over Texas and Louisiana. This is associated with a system that will bring rain, freezing rain, and blizzard-like snow conditions to much of the US Midwest and Canada.


Yes, my friend, exactly! This storm will be making weather news for days!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
US 24 Hour Surface Forecast Map




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
For Nana:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 02 FOR CHRISTMAS 2009 WINTER STORM
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH CHRISTMAS WITH HEAVY SNOW AND
HEAVY RAIN. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SYSTEM AND SLOW MOVEMENT WILL
SEVERELY IMPACT HOLIDAY GROUND AND AIR TRAVEL...

WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES SURROUND THIS AREA...EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATES.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 300 PM CST...A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN TEXAS. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A LARGE...AND EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SNOW WAS FALLING FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...WITH
SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE MAIN SNOWFALL AREA. HEAVY RAIN
WAS FALLING FROM MISSOURI SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 900 PM CST TUE DEC
22 THROUGH 300 PM CST WED DEC 23...

...COLORADO...
FORT COLLINS 1 SE 6.0
NORTH BRUSH 6.0
PARADOX 2N 6.0
GREELEY 2.6W 5.5
HUGO 1 NW 5.0
BUCKEYE 4.7NNE 4.1
ESTES PARK 2.2S 4.0
HASWELL 4.0
NORTH LONGMONT 3.2
COLORADO SPRINGS 5 ESE 2.0

...KANSAS...
GOVE 8.0
GRAINFIELD 6.0
PALCO 6.0
QUINTER 6.0
WINONA 5.0
ELLIS 11NNE 2.8
HAYS 5.4SSW 2.4
CATHERINE 2.0

...NEBRASKA...
ALMA 5.0
FRANKLIN 4.0
HOLDREGE 4.0
WILSONVILLE 4.0
GRAND ISLAND 2.0

...WYOMING...
CHEYENNE 3.0

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 900 PM CST TUE DEC
22 THROUGH 300 PM CST WED DEC 23...

...ARKANSAS...
PINE BLUFF 2.27
MONTICELLO 1.55
LITTLE ROCK 1.37
EL DORADO 1.04
SHERWOOD 1.8NNW 1.04

...MISSOURI...
ST CHARLES 0.94

...MISSISSIPPI...
GREENVILLE 1.52

...TEXAS...
BULLARD 3.7E 1.32
LONGVIEW/GREGG CO. ARPT 1.09

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL FREEZING RAIN ICE AMOUNTS IN INCHES FROM
900 PM CST TUE DEC 22 THROUGH 300 PM CST WED DEC 23...

...IOWA...
DAYTON 1 W 0.25
IOWA CITY 5 NW 0.20
NEWTON 0.15

...ILLINOIS...
CAMP GROVE 0.10
ELMIRA 2 NW 0.10

...KANSAS...
OBERLIN 0.25
BURR OAK 0.24

...NEBRASKA...
BRUNING 0.25


THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TODAY AND MOVE INTO MISSOURI
CHRISTMAS EVE. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND MOVE INTO IOWA. HEAVY SNOW WILL EXPAND
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MIDWEST STATES WITH A TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. A LARGE AREA OF 6 TO 12 INCH SNOWS ARE LIKELY
WITH LOCALIZED 1 TO 2 FOOT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN IOWA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY AND
THIS MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 900 PM CST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
EVENT.

HAMRICK
¡+
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OldLefty19081:
First, I haven't heard any talk about reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations; the immediate goal would be to slow the rate of increase.

Second, I don't get the connection between the hacked emails and the IPCC AR4. AR4 is based on published scientific studies. Those papers are out there for all to see and take issue with, if they please. Plenty of transparency in the process.

Finally, you keep talking about Hernrik Svensmark’s work. Maybe if you gave references for papers that he has published, we could have a look at his work.


Just reducing the increase won’t stop global warming if the IPCC’s position is correct. What was originally proposed for Copenhagen would delay global warming by an insignificant amount by 2100. If the world is fine with that then they would be fine with doing nothing. Real change would require far more sacrifice on a global scale.

The hacked emails demonstrate a level of “rigging” by some of the primary authors of studies that went into IPCC AR4. Regardless of the scientific impact, the political impact is so sever as to undermine the credibility of the IPCC process. You are wrong about the data and metadata being available. That’s evident by the FOI requests talked about in the leaked emails and also by the fact that the Met Office just recently posted a subset of the full HadCRUT3 record on their web site. They say on their site that this “is one of the global temperature records that have underpinned IPCC assessment reports and numerous scientific studies.” The Met Office also refused to release this same data in response to a FOI request just last summer. Things have changed.

I linked to a 6 part video that explains Hernrik Svensmark’s theory. If you are qualified to review his peer-reviews and published paper then you already know where to find it.
Member Since: March 14, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
Quoting Bordonaro:


Correct for $1000, I'll take "Wind Shear" for $1200 please!


Um...wind shear in the Texas low is producing tornadic supercells over Texas and Louisiana. This is associated with a system that will bring rain, freezing rain, and blizzard-like snow conditions to much of the US Midwest and Canada.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2839
It's certainly possible for most of the Himalayan glaciers to melt this century, leaving a billion people without their primary water source. Water shortages could be rampant worldwide in the next 25 years.(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((( Yes, the glaciers are melting very fast in and around India. The mountain inhabitants over there are being flooded with a good thing. just too much to fast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
712 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HENDERSON...

* UNTIL 800 PM CST

* AT 710 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NEW
SALEM...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF RUSK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MINDEN...TURNERTOWN AND JOINERVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Over the Gulf, you have three layers of cloud going in different directions. Favourable shear conditions for tornadic development?


Correct for $1000, I'll take "Wind Shear" for $1200 please!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

In this case the source shouldn't have been used at all, regardless of age. The original report should have.

And I would not call forecasting a 500K km^2 to 100K km^2 change in Himalaya glacier coverage 300 years earlier than the one scientific report on the matter conservative. Not at all.


It's certainly possible for most of the Himalayan glaciers to melt this century, leaving a billion people without their primary water source. Water shortages could be rampant worldwide in the next 25 years.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2839
NEXRAD Radar
Shreveport, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814

CAMP SPRINGS, MD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION



SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
226 PM EST WED DEC 23 2009

VALID 00Z THU DEC 24 2009 - 12Z FRI DEC 25 2009

A GROUP OF POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL TREK EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
INTENSIFY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY TOMORROW...WHERE
IT WILL MEET A COLDER AIRMASS. A FAIRLY LARGE REGION OF FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE ICING THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY AND
THUS SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE. TO THE NORTH...A REGION OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL...WHERE A FOOT OF
SNOW OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND BLIZZARD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE
REGION. REFER TO THE HPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SPECIFIC THREATS. ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...A DISTURBANCE SLIDING ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER WILL SLIP
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS REGION IS ALREADY QUITE
MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE...THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. FROM THERE THE STRENGTHENING LOW WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD...BRINGING THE MOISTURE AND RELATIVE WARMTH FROM THE
GULF WITH IT. THESE RAINS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND IN MORE NORTHERN REGIONS A
COMBINATION OF THE MELTING SNOW AND INTENSE RAINFALL COULD CREATE
A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT IN SOME AREAS.

THIS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS...SPREADING ITS RAINS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW WILL CREATE A BROAD REGION OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF CHRISTMAS DAY. EARLY IN THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN AND PERSIST FOR UP TO
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN AS THE NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES UP THE EAST COAST. ALSO...AS THE PARENT
LOW MATURES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST...WRAPAROUND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND NEARBY AREAS...THOUGH THIS SNOW
WOULD BE OF DECREASING INTENSITY.

ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY...THE NORTHEAST WILL QUICKLY RID ITSELF
OF A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...WHILE THOSE WEST OF THE
PLAINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENJOY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM.


GRIFFIN


GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
thanks geoffreyWPB

local special wx statement, jax fl

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 27579
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The problem with the IPCC reports is that they use data that are several years old, and the information they present has to be accepted unanimously by everyone, including special interest groups so often the projections turn out to be very conservative.

In this case the source shouldn't have been used at all, regardless of age. The original report should have.

And I would not call forecasting a 500K km^2 to 100K km^2 change in Himalaya glacier coverage 300 years earlier than the one scientific report on the matter conservative. Not at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
low level MRV catches it, at least it's not the "blue meets brown" syndrome

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 27579
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


I think most of us here have learned to pay close attention to your "gut" feelings, Bordonaro! (Where IS my burrito? Hon-gry! BTW, traffic here is even worse than usual. People shopping, making up for lost time due to "blizzard," or the recession is over (WISH)!


Good try :0)! I am Italian, Cherokee Indian, Dutch and German. And I have the temper to go with it!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jacksonville NWS Discussion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:


I knew this was gonna happen, I had a BAD feeling about this the other night, there have been 2 confirmed tornadoes, I understand the one near Lufkin, TX was big. And one of our fellow bloggers that night compared me to "Al Gore", sensationalizing this upcoming storm. I lived through 29 yrs of this, I am familiar with the pattern!!


I think most of us here have learned to pay close attention to your "gut" feelings, Bordonaro! (Where IS my burrito? Hon-gry! BTW, traffic here is even worse than usual. People shopping, making up for lost time due to "blizzard," or the recession is over (WISH)!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR loop



Over the Gulf, you have three layers of cloud going in different directions. Favourable shear conditions for tornadic development?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2839
Quoting aquak9:
hhmmm...gulf coast mets upping the wording as well...panhandle being a little more conservative.

Low trying to develop coastal along the upper gulf, influencing a rough Christmas eve across these parts, along with tonight's grumblings..


Check out the NWS Shreveport, LA Severe Weather Graphics link below:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GOM IR loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
hhmmm...gulf coast mets upping the wording as well...panhandle being a little more conservative.

Low trying to develop coastal along the upper gulf, influencing a rough Christmas eve across these parts, along with tonight's grumblings..
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 27579
Quoting aquak9:
hey Bordonaro? My locals just dropped a special weather statement on me (that's jacksonville, FL)
for tomorrow night. Upped me to severe.

Hmmph. Might be more to all of this than I realized.


This afternoon's high temperature in Arlington, TX was 76F. Whenever it gets this warm in December, watch out! It will not be a widespread outbreak, but those storms that do produce a tornado may pop out an EF 2 or EF 3!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Thank you; back to the important stuff...damage reports coming in (back to lurk mode for me, waiting for husband to bring Burrito...Floodman's fault...talking about Tex/Mex this morning).

Just one more comment... I think there should be a Christmas miracle movie about the jet that crashed into three pieces in Jamaica, yet no one was killed!


Bad mojo to penetrate a Squall of that intensity..also he landed mid Runway on a 8000ft
runway,..and hydroplaned down thru the end marker,thru a fence,and then struck a Sand dune,

Always land long is a pilots creed usually,..as Landing short can be ,er..problamatic at best.

Seems the Carrier's Crew made a BAD decision,at first glance,and some words from a NTSB friend.

It was a Good Landing,as anytime one can walk away,along with yer passengers,is a good one.

But rest assured,the 737 didnt crash,..more of a Landing skid,then a breakup,..a better decision could have been to orbit,and wait for the Squall to pass.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 433 Comments: 132814
Quoting atmoaggie:

Somewhat debatable...first the Mann thing, now the Himalayas (and possibly others I don't know about yet).

Before anyone goofs up about N-G and/or funding (like calling him a shill), look at the CV on his page. Funding from the Texas state version of the EPA, NOAA, air quality groups, natural resource conservation groups, the actual EPA, etc.
http://atmo.tamu.edu/profile/JNielsen-Gammon

And I think him untouchable as skeptical of the AGW alarm (I know him to be).

N-G:
POSITIONS HELD
Professor of Meteorology, Texas A&M University, 2000-present
Texas State Climatologist, 2000-present
Acting Executive Associate Dean and Associate Dean for Research, College of Geosciences, Texas A&M University, 2008-2009
Associate Director, The Center for Atmospheric Chemistry and the Environment, 2003-07
Deputy Speaker, Texas A&M Faculty Senate, 1997-98
Associate Professor of Meteorology, Texas A&M University, 1996-00
Assistant Professor of Meteorology, Texas A&M University, 1991-96
Postdoctoral Research Associate, State University of New York at Albany, 1990-91


The problem with the IPCC reports is that they use data that are several years old, and the information they present has to be accepted unanimously by everyone, including special interest groups so often the projections turn out to be very conservative.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2839
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
640 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL CASS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 638 PM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 15 MILES SOUTH OF
MAUD...OR 11 MILES WEST OF ATLANTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.


* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
REDWATER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey Bordonaro? My locals just dropped a special weather statement on me (that's jacksonville, FL)
for tomorrow night. Upped me to severe.

Hmmph. Might be more to all of this than I realized.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 27579
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Thank you; back to the important stuff...damage reports coming in (back to lurk mode for me, waiting for husband to bring Burrito...Floodman's fault...talking about Tex/Mex this morning).

Just one more comment... I think there should be a Christmas miracle movie about the jet that crashed into three pieces in Jamaica, yet no one was killed!


I knew this was gonna happen, I had a BAD feeling about this the other night, there have been 2 confirmed tornadoes, I understand the one near Lufkin, TX was big. And one of our fellow bloggers that night compared me to "Al Gore", sensationalizing this upcoming storm. I lived through 29 yrs of this, I am familiar with the pattern!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OldLefty19081:
Second, I don't get the connection between the hacked emails and the IPCC AR4. AR4 is based on published scientific studies. Those papers are out there for all to see and take issue with, if they please. Plenty of transparency in the process.

Somewhat debatable...first the Mann thing, now the Himalayas (and possibly others I don't know about yet).

Before anyone goofs up about N-G and/or funding (like calling him a shill), look at the CV on his page. Funding from the Texas state version of the EPA, NOAA, air quality groups, natural resource conservation groups, the actual EPA, etc.
http://atmo.tamu.edu/profile/JNielsen-Gammon

And I think him untouchable as skeptical of the AGW alarm (I know him to be).

N-G:
POSITIONS HELD
Professor of Meteorology, Texas A&M University, 2000-present
Texas State Climatologist, 2000-present
Acting Executive Associate Dean and Associate Dean for Research, College of Geosciences, Texas A&M University, 2008-2009
Associate Director, The Center for Atmospheric Chemistry and the Environment, 2003-07
Deputy Speaker, Texas A&M Faculty Senate, 1997-98
Associate Professor of Meteorology, Texas A&M University, 1996-00
Assistant Professor of Meteorology, Texas A&M University, 1991-96
Postdoctoral Research Associate, State University of New York at Albany, 1990-91
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
while in Canada the hospital assumes total control over the person's life.
UUMM!
Just in the last two weeks I witnessed my brother-in-law's death in an hospital in Canada.
A couple of impressions:
1) Hospital staff, including doctors, were very considerate of family: we were not only informed of consequences of treatment but requested to agree among ourselves regarding any intervention. This consult also included the patient himself.
2) T'anks God I have no experience in an hospital in the U.S.A.
Most Canadian travellers will risk their loved one's well being to get back across the border
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cajunkid:


How did they spread denial and what kind of power did they get?


They funded skeptic organizations aimed at disuading public opinion by promoting skeptical lobbyists, and during the Bush administration most members were former oil workers and therefore promoted policies that put oil over the people.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2839
Here's an interesting story:

Yes, Virginia, There Is a Santa Claus . . . and NORAD Is Tracking Him!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Speak his name and he appears....

Whow, the Jamaican blob nearly took quite a toll. This is being called quite appropriately "A Christmas Miracle"

Panic _ but no deaths _ in jet accident in Jamaica





Excerpts:

Passengers said the in-flight turbulence forced the crew to halt the beverage service three times before finally giving up.

Before descending, the pilot warned of more turbulence but said it likely wouldn't be much worse, Abaurrea told The Associated Press.

Wehrwein remembers coming out to sheets of torrential, "hurricane-type" rain as they walked along the sand to a bus to take them to the terminal, where they encountered airport staff unprepared to handle the situation.



Full Article
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting discussion tonight. This definition might clear the air for us a little:

From Merriam-Webster's Online Dictionary:

Main Entry: so·cial·ism
Pronunciation: \ˈsō-shə-ˌli-zəm\
Function: noun
Date: 1837
1 : any of various economic and political theories advocating collective or governmental ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods
2 a : a system of society or group living in which there is no private property b : a system or condition of society in which the means of production are owned and controlled by the state
3 : a stage of society in Marxist theory transitional between capitalism and communism and distinguished by unequal distribution of goods and pay according to work done

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffMasters:


Comparing the IPCC sea level rise projections from the 2001 report to the 2007 report is like comparing apples to oranges. The 2001 report included melting from Greenland and Antarctica, while the 2007 report did not, saying this melting was too uncertain to estimate. I thought the 2007 report did a very poor job explaining this. It has caused much confusion. Melting from Greenland and Antarctica could easily be the largest term in the sea level rise budget this century, and is currently 10 - 30% of the total sea level rise.

Jeff Masters


I wonder if those projections on sea level rise include the expected melt off of the Himalayas...

A former prof of mine, Dr. Nielsen-Gammon (N-G, as we call him) contributed a study of the dust up over the melt rate of the glaciers there and IPCC projections.

N-G: Lost amid the news coverage of Copenhagen and Climategate was the assertion that one of the more attention-grabbing statements of the IPCC AR4 was flat-out wrong:

AR4: "Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world (see Table 10.9) and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate. Its total area will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 km2 by the year 2035 (WWF, 2005)." (IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch10, p. 493)

...
(N-G hereafter)
The IPCC report lists a single reference for the paragraph: WWF 2005. This turns out to be a World Wildlife Fund project report (PDF) that was not peer-reviewed.
...
the WWF report is only quoting another source, so not only is it not peer-reviewed, it is a secondary source. This leads to the danger that the WWF has not quoted the primary sources completely correctly. (And where did that 500,000 to 100,000 shrinkage come from?) The primary sources are stated to be a 1999 report by WGHG/ICSI and what turns out to be a 1999 article in New Scientist magazine.
...
So New Scientist is not an independent reference; it refers back to the WGHG/ICSI 1999 report. It also quotes the chair of the WGHG, Syed Hasnain, and paraphrases of his statements became quotes in the WWF report.


At this point, all roads seem to lead back to the 1999 WGHG/ICSI report, which proves to be almost impossible to find.
...
There's absolutely nothing in the report that talks about Himalayan glaciers disappearing by 2035, nor is there a comparison between Himalayan glaciers and other glaciers.

Original report: "The degradation of the extrapolar glaciation of the Earth will be apparent in rising ocean level already by the year 2050, and there will be a drastic rise of the ocean thereafter caused by the deglaciation-derived runoff (see Table 11 ). This period will last from 200 to 300 years. The extrapolar glaciation of the Earth will be decaying at rapid, catastrophic rates%u2014 its total area will shrink from 500,000 to 100,000 km2 by the year 2350."

atmoaggie: !!! Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

So, we have IPCC making a statement based on WWF making a statement based on New Scientist making a statement with a transcribed number from a 1999 source based on another source that amounts a difference of 300 years?!? (2350 became 2035)

And it is somehow wrong to have serious doubts about the validity of a set of documents that involve questionable data adjustments, has some governmental review and edits, has apparent issues with the inclusion of not peer-review work, and has folks tampering with the peer-review process by both getting involved with who editors of journals are and suggesting favorable reviewers for their own work?

How on earth could anyone fault us that question the IPCC's conclusions? No longer can it be said that the IPCC reports are peer reviewed if they are including 4th-level sources, and incorrectly, at that.

http://www.chron.com/commons/readerblogs/atmosphere.html?plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewP ost&newspaperUserId=54e0b21f-aaba-475d-87ab-1df5075ce621&plckPostId=Blog%3a54e0b21f-aaba-475d-87ab-1 df5075ce621Post%3aa2b394cc-5b5f-47ad-8bb5-c1aec91409ad&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kim Peek died? What a bummer.RIP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:
SE TX and western LA. is being considered as a dangerous situation by weather channel and the SPC.


Thank you; back to the important stuff...damage reports coming in (back to lurk mode for me, waiting for husband to bring Burrito...Floodman's fault...talking about Tex/Mex this morning).

Just one more comment... I think there should be a Christmas miracle movie about the jet that crashed into three pieces in Jamaica, yet no one was killed!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Hello?

Rainman is also Rainman32, a blogger here on WU. "Distinctive Satellite Views" for those who might be interested. Link

As well as this little place...

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 27579
Post #526...LOL!
Good one AIM.....:-)
Merry Christmas all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Where are my manners? Good evening all! Haven't been on in a while. Been missing all the fun (:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


No way! I liked that movie, he was a great actor! This seems to be the year of dying entertainers. Hopefully this wil be the last one this year.
Dustin Hoffman is NOT dead. His brother in the movie RAINMAN did die.:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like seasonal temps. down here in south Florida for the next ten days:

Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)

Dec 23 Tonight
Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. Low 68F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph.
Dec 24 Tomorrow
Scattered showers in the morning, then cloudy skies late. High 79F. Winds ESE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Dec 24 Tomorrow night
Showers early becoming less numerous late. Thunder possible. Low 73F. Winds SE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Dec 25 Friday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Dec 26 Saturday
Few showers. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Dec 27 Sunday
Occasional showers possible. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Dec 28 Monday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
Dec 29 Tuesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Dec 30 Wednesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Dec 31 Thursday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Jan 1 Friday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


No way! I liked that movie, he was a great actor! This seems to be the year of dying entertainers. Hopefully this wil be the last one this year.


OH SHOOT, confusion, no Dustin Hoffman is NOT dead...the fellow on whom his character was based. What have I done, OY!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
From The Times
December 23, 2009
Kim Peek: savant who was the inspiration for the film Rain Man

Link

The actor Dustin Hoffman spent time with several autism sufferers to prepare for his Rain Man role of Raymond Babbit. He also spent one day with Peek, who displayed tendencies close to those of the severely autistic even though he did not, in fact, have the condition.
------------------------------------
I stand corrected...evidently Peek was not autistic.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting AstroHurrican001:
Exactly, there is rarely any certainty in science. However, we cannot wait for certainty in the case of global warming if certainty ever arrives, because by then it will be too late to do anything and we cannot afford to participate in a living experiment.


Given the huge changes that would really be required to actually reduce the atmospheric concentration of CO2 requires a high level of scientific certainty to overcome substantial political hurtles. Nothing that was even proposed for Copenhagen comes close to reducing CO2. Given the political reality of Climategate, the first step in achieving such certainty requires a full and transparent review of the IPCC fourth assessment. That means the data and metadata for ever included study must be made publicly available. If there’s urgency then the IPCC should get started soon. Arguing there’s no need for such transparency at the intersection of science and politics is a non starter.

If Hernrik Svensmark’s theory is correct then we may be in for an extended cooling trend. If the recently discovered shifting emissivity effect is substantial, then the climate is relatively insensitive to CO2. Few people want to revert back to the lifestyle of a midlevel peasant before science evaluates such information in a transparent way. That’s the political reality.
Member Since: March 14, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 25

Viewing: 588 - 538

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Dunham Lake Sunset
Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto