The uncertain legacy of Copenhagen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:39 PM GMT on December 22, 2009

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The Copenhagen (COP15) climate summit is over, and leaves an uncertain legacy. What was accomplished in Copenhagen was far outweighed by what was not accomplished. While the final Copenhagen Accord affirmed that we must hold the warming of our planet below 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 to avert dangerous climate change, no timetable for accomplishing that goal was specified. The promises made by the various nations at the summit would likely lead to a 3.9°C warming of the planet, according to an analysis by MIT's Sustainability Institute. Copenhagen did demonstrate that the hype preceding the talks was not undeserved--the stakes involved are huge, and we have an epic political battle on our hands that will afford high drama in 2010. Probably the best summary of the political battle at Copenhagen was posted by author Mark Lynas on the UK Guardian's web site. The title of the article was, "How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room".

The leaders for greenhouse gas reductions
While the Copenhagen Summit made it clear that the coming battle will feature the U.S. and China, the voices of two tiny island nations--Tuvalu and The Maldives--will be important as well. When ranked by percentage of population located near the coast at an elevation of ten meters or less, the top five spots are held by small island nations with more than 90% of their population in this Low Elevation Coastal Zone--the Maldives, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos Islands (McGranahan et al., 2007). The very existence of these island nations are threatened by sea level rise due to climate change. The leaders of Tuvalu and The Maldives brought considerable attention to their plight at the Copenhagen conference, and President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, in particular, has made his tiny country a force to be reckoned with in the coming battle.


Figure 1. President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, Vice President Dr Mohamed Waheed and 11 cabinet ministers donned scuba gear and submerged 4 meters below the surface of sea to hold the world's first underwater cabinet meeting on October 17, 2009, in order to dramatize the threat sea level rise poses to their country.

The leaders against greenhouse gas reductions
Canada has joined Saudi Arabia as a leading voice against efforts to control emissions of greenhouse gases. According to The Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), which is published annually by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe, Canada ranks second to last in climate policy and in overall efforts to tackle climate change, among the 57 industrialized countries and emerging economies that together account for more than 90 per cent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. Canada's national statement at COP15 featured no commitments of money or targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and Canada also lobbied to change the "base" year from when emission reductions should be computed from 1990 to 2006. Croatia was the only other country to support Canada's position. The notorious political pranksters The Yes Men dramatized Canada's position by issuing a phony press release during COP15 claiming that Canada had come to its senses and was now going to work toward a 40 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions, the type of cut scientists say is necessary if we are to avoid dangerous warming of more than 2°C over pre-industrial levels. Canadian reporters immediately recognized the news release as a hoax. Canadian politics is heavily dominated by the fossil fuel industry, and Canadian reporters immediately saw the impossibility of the Canadian government performing an about-face on climate policy.


Figure 2. The top ten and bottom ten performing countries on the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), published annually by Germanwatch and CAN-Europe to rank the efforts to combat climate change of the 57 industrialized countries and emerging economies that together account for more than 90 per cent of global energy-related CO2 emissions. The ranking system factors in three scores: the emissions level (CO2 per primary energy unit, primary energy unit per GDP, and primary energy unit per capita); the emissions trend (whether emissions are rising or falling), and a subjective rating of the nation's national and international climate policy. Tall bars indicate a higher ranking, and thin bars represent a poor ranking. None of the 57 countries were doing enough to keep global warming below 2°C, so the top three spots on the list were left blank. Image credit: Germanwatch.org.

Comparison with the battle over CFC regulations and the ozone hole
On June 28, 1974, Sherry Rowland and Mario Molina, chemists at the University of California, Irvine, published the first scientific paper warning that human-generated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could cause serious harm to Earth's protective ozone layer (Molina and Rowland, 1974). They calculated that if CFC production continued to increase at the going rate of 10%/year until 1990, then remain steady, CFCs would cause a global 5 to 7 percent ozone loss by 1995 and 30 - 50% loss by 2050.

They warned that the loss of ozone would significantly increase the amount of skin-damaging ultraviolet UV-B light reaching the surface, greatly increasing skin cancer and cataracts. The loss of stratospheric ozone could also significantly cool the stratosphere, potentially causing destructive climate change. Although no stratospheric ozone loss had been observed yet, CFCs should be banned, they said. A huge international political battle ensued, one that eerily echoes many of the same themes as the battle over global warming. In a 1984 interview in The New Yorker, Dr. Rowland concluded, "Nothing will be done about this problem until there is further evidence that a significant loss of ozone has occurred. Unfortunately, this means that if there is a disaster in the making in the stratosphere we are probably not going to avoid it." These prophetic words were proved true the very next year with the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. Speedy action to save the planet from potentially disastrous loss of the ozone layer was realized with the swift implementation of the Montreal Protocol two years later, though.

As was the case with the battle over the CFCs and the ozone layer, I expect it will take a obvious imminent climate change disaster to motivate governments to take strong action. I believed in September 2007 that such an event had occurred, when the Arctic ice cap lost more than half of its area, compared to levels observed in the early 1950s. I was astounded at the nonchalance the event earned in the press and among politicians. But, in hindsight I should not have been surprised, since the stakes are very much higher than the battle to ban CFCs--now we are talking about the fossil fuel industry, the very basis for our modern industrialized society. A very big, very obvious disaster in the making will probably be needed to motivate strong enough action to make a major difference in CO2 emissions. Our climate is certainly capable of generating such an event in the coming decade. Unfortunately, if we wait until a disaster is obviously imminent, we will have far less time to prevent a climate disaster than we had for the ozone depletion crisis. The lifetime of CFCs in the atmosphere is 50 - 140 years, but a substantial portion of the CO2 put in the air stays for thousands of years. According to the 2007 IPCC report, "About 50% of a CO2 increase will be removed from the atmosphere within 30 years, and a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries. The remaining 20% may stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years."

References
McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson, 2007, "The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones", Environment & Urbanization, 19(1), 17-37.

Molina, M.J., and F.S. Rowland, "Stratospheric Sink for Chlorofluoromethanes: Chlorine Atom-Catalyzed Destruction of Ozone", Nature 249, 810-812, 1974.

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Have a great Christmas, everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday (at the latest).

Jeff Masters

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JUST OPENED THIS E-MAIL FROM MY FRIEND WHO WORKS AT OUR EMBASSY IN LONDON...Pls. excuse caps but wow, when you receive news like this, from a close friend who has worked in "third-world" countries and worried very little about venturing out and about...

Excerpt from her e-mail...

Now I'm worried about my kids' trip to London. They leave Nashville to Chicago on Sunday after hearing about the attempted terrorist bombing of the Delta flight to Detroit. I'm watching BBC now and they are showing the press outside the basement flat of the perpetrator. It's about 2 blocks from my flat. BBC is saying it's odd that this young man could afford a flat in this area, because they rent for about $7000/month. He was a mechanical engineering student at University College London. Scary stuff.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Lawmakers rally to sailors' aid in court martial
By KEVIN FREKING (AP) %u2013 Dec 4, 2009

WASHINGTON %u2014 Lawmakers are seeking a reprieve for three Navy SEALs facing court-martial because one allegedly punched a suspect after arresting him for an ambush killing of U.S. contractors in Iraq.

Rather than accept a reprimand, the sailors chose to fight the charges in a military court. Their appeal greatly raises the stakes because a guilty finding could bring stiff punishment.

A letter that Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif, circulated in the House said prosecuting the three SEALs "seems to us to be an overreaction by the command."

One of the SEALs is accused of punching Ahmed Hashim Abed in the face after his September arrest; the others are accused of falsifying statements on the episode.

Hunter, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, said the men could face loss of rank, up to one year of confinement, a bad conduct discharge and forfeiture of a portion of their pay each month for up to a year.

About 20 lawmakers signed the letter to Defense Secretary Robert Gates, including House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio.

"The Navy SEALs could have been slapped on the wrist for this %u2014 unfairly then, too," Hunter said. "But they said, 'We want to let the facts be known." Prosecuting them is "baloney."

The SEALs involved are Special Warfare Operators 2nd Class Matthew McCabe and Jonathan Keefe, and Special Warfare Operator 1st Class Julio Huertas.

According to Special Operations Command Central, McCabe is charged with assault, dereliction of duty and making a false official statement; Keefe is charged with dereliction of duty and making a false official statement; and Huertas is charged with dereliction of duty, making a false official statement and impeding an official investigation.

The command said in a press release Friday night the alleged assault happened after "the prisoner had been apprehended and while he was in their custody at the base." The command stressed that the charges were merely accusations and the sailors were presumed innocent unless proven guilty at court martial.

The plight of the three men seems to be gaining attention on Capitol Hill. On Wednesday, Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., sent a similar letter to Gates, asking the secretary to give the case his personal attention. He said it appeared to him that highly skilled personnel have been removed from the war effort "due to a fat lip and some slanderous allegations by one of the most-wanted individuals in Iraq."

The letter by House members said prosecution of the sailors would hurt others in the military who risk their lives in dangerous, ambiguous situations.

"It appears from all accounts that these SEALs are exceptional sailors, demonstrated by the fact that each had recently been advanced in rank," the letter said. "They captured a terrorist who had planned an attack that not only killed Americans but also maimed and mutilated their bodies."

Abed had evaded capture since the ambush that killed four Blackwater USA contractors in March 2004. The burned bodies of two of the victims in the attack were hung on a bridge over the Euphrates River.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
RE: 1132

A long as you're not a SEAL that is. Then if you give him a "fat-lip" you get Court Martialed. Strange times we live in.


HUH? Okay, there's a story here I must have forgotten...remind me!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
JMO -- Me thinks the writer may have buried the lead...one of the most troubling parts, to me, is sort of hidden in the middle of this story. If U.S. citizens lost jobs because demand is down, well, let's re-train them for alternative-energy industries. BUT it looks to me like demand isn't down that much...it's just that more fuel-refining is going overseas...more dependence on foreign oil, even now. Am I right? What's the bottom line here? Because if so, things are still ever so sucky.

Refinery struggles bruise NJ communities
By GEOFF MULVIHILL, Associated Press Writer Geoff Mulvihill, Associated Press Writer Sat Dec 26, 6:33 am ET

Link
So far, the most drastic refining cutbacks in the U.S. have come in Delaware and southern New Jersey. But Anne Kohler, an analyst at Caris & Co., expects more plants to be idled in the East, on the Gulf Coast, and in Europe. She said refineries in California are likely to be spared.

It's been a quick reversal.

Just a few years ago, gas was $4 a gallon and there were worries the nation did not have enough refining capacity. But the recession, coupled with more emphasis on fuel efficiency, has driven down demand as refineries were built and were expanded in China, India and the Middle East.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
RE: 1132

A long as you're not a SEAL that is. Then if you give him a "fat-lip" you get Court Martialed. Strange times we live in.
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Mornin AIM!
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Happy Day-After-Christmas, Doug and everybody!

Ahhh, this warms my heart...
"Everyday People..."
"We're Not Gonna' Take It Anymore..."

Passengers help foil attack on Detroit-bound plane
By JIM IRWIN, Associated Press Writer Jim Irwin, Associated Press Writer 25 mins ago

Link

ROMULUS, Mich. – An attempted terrorist attack on a Christmas Day flight began with a pop and a puff of smoke — sending passengers scrambling to subdue a Nigerian man who claimed to be acting on orders from al-Qaida to blow up the airliner, officials and travelers said.Link




I wouldn't have blamed the passengers had they beat that guy to death.
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Happy Day-After-Christmas, Doug and everybody!

Ahhh, this warms my heart...
"Everyday People..."
"We're Not Gonna' Take It Anymore..."

Passengers help foil attack on Detroit-bound plane
By JIM IRWIN, Associated Press Writer Jim Irwin, Associated Press Writer 25 mins ago

Link

ROMULUS, Mich. – An attempted terrorist attack on a Christmas Day flight began with a pop and a puff of smoke — sending passengers scrambling to subdue a Nigerian man who claimed to be acting on orders from al-Qaida to blow up the airliner, officials and travelers said.Link
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
RE:1108


Thats seriously funny!!
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Mornin Ike and everyone else!
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Joe B. This morning.

WARNING!!!! DANGER WILL ROBINSON!! He gets an AG dig in at the end. So in the words of that Great American Hero The "Human Torch"..."FLAME ON"!!!!

SATURDAY 8:30 AM


SHADES OF 86-87, 00-01 FOR NEW YEARS!


Well here we go again with the GFS While there is certainly reason to believe that some energy will escape out to sea later this upcoming week ( in fact the first system coming east from the plains should be flatter as opined a few days ago) the second on its tail should not be. So the question becomes does enough get left behind to

cause the kind of blizzard the Euro has in the east for around the time of the New Years. There is that B word again... dont laugh, its not like it hasnt happened the past 7 days... TWICE

It is a December to Remember and it will go out with a bang.


But this is not quite as easy to see as the east coast blizzard was, at least not for me from this far out. So let me take the snow geese weeping as east winds and heavy rains wipe out the eastern blizzards snow through a journey that a week from today will have them sated anew.


The blizzard is winding down in the plains, but enough energy comes underneath the block for a mini clipper if one wants to call it that, to move through the midwest and off the mid atlantic coast Monday with a lot of 1-2 inch snows, and maybe the odd 3 o4 through the midwest to the upper mid atlantic states and New england coast. The current spear of arctic air went south, then east but a new charge gets hurled right into the northeast after this with the coldest weather of the year of the this area.

While all this is going on, the storm that was mentioned here last week even before the blizzard was blasting the east for a California concern ( it wasnt just California dreaming) comes inland and starts across the nation snows break out.. The first piece comes out and is leading to a rare snow on snow event in the southern plains ( It snows again in the places where it just got through snowing) for Tuesday. But here is what you will see. This will NOT increase on its way northeast, and when it moves through the Ohio valley and into the east Wed and leaves Thursday this large front running area of snow will have about the same accumulations northeast that it did back in the southern plains. A large system, and something that causes alot of winter weather advisories, but few winter storm warnings. However it is what is behind it that will be the big deal.

I am skeptical about any two stream forecast the GFS has. The fact is the models ensembles are going right to the means for a mid atlantic monster yet again. This one, with more northern branch, should be a large storm So the system that is in the plains Tuesday is gone Thursday, but it weakens coming out of the mean trough and there is too much left behind.

Then it gets going. The next wave over the gulf comes northeast along the boundary between the cold air and the advancing new cold air, so once again look for the wave not to jump to the front offshore. The GFS is simply trying to put its eggs in the basked of the 1st system mentioned above and its tricky , because it might happen, but I dont think so. It smells of a feedback fiasco. Instead the first one weakens and the phasing comes with the second one. This one like the mid atlantic mauler has little snow west of the Mississippi but starts cranking it out New Years eve in the Tennessee valley with the threat of another major storm and with the arctic branch charging in, blizzard near the east coast Friday and Saturday.

Now the headline has to do with the great Fiesta bowl 1987 storm ( it was organizing in the southern plains on New Years eve), which was the ultimate Joe Bastardi football/wather storm as it occurred the day PSU beat Miami for the national title. The storm was winding down during the game, but every it started snowing harder, PSU would come up with a big play. This will be in my future book... diary of a mad meteorologist, if I ever get famous enough to be asked to write one (lol) I would hate to be my editor

And also the analogs are showing that late Dec 2000 ( there is that year again) is showing up for the 6-10 Moral is, there is plenty of weather in front of us in the next week and with my stand already of the severity of cold in major northern hemisphere population areas the December to remember may simply turn into, when we look back at it, the winter that was. Cold enough to snap the publics attention to an issue based more on non science agendas than the reality... that there is not only doubt about AGW, but reason to believe there may be things opposite its supposed results lurking.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

Do you think AL Gore knows what that is, or what it means?

Thanks for reading, ciao for now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1127. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning, ike. Your locals have you at fairly moderate temps for next weekend-- daily fifties, nightly forties.

I got normal temps predicted for my area too (of course that could/will change)

hard freeze in our future? Say it ain't so...


PensacolaDoug posted Bastardi's daily talk yesterday and he was mentioning the first 2 weeks of January could rival the cold outbreaks the eastern USA had back in the 70's.

Latest ECMWF looks on track for what the Tallahassee mets are talking about.
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1126. aquak9
from my locals:

MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT NO FREEZES
EXPECTED AFTER TUE AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE NE U.S. QUICKLY
MOVES EAST AND THE AIRMASS MODIFIES SOME.

of course, your area could freeze, mine could remain warmer, bein' closer the the Atlantic and all.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26675
1125. aquak9
g'morning, ike. Your locals have you at fairly moderate temps for next weekend-- daily fifties, nightly forties.

I got normal temps predicted for my area too (of course that could/will change)

hard freeze in our future? Say it ain't so...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26675
1124. IKE
Long-term from this mornings Tallahassee discussion....

"THE MOST INTERESTING PORTION OF THE FCST WILL COME AT THE VERY END
OF THE PERIOD AND WILL BE FURTHER DISCUSSED IN THE EXTENDED
DISCUSSION TOMORROW NIGHT...AS INDICATIONS ARE POINTING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS TO HEAD OUR WAY BEHIND THIS
LOW FOR NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO OUR
FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON."
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1123. peejodo
Quoting Bordonaro:
And for Christmas my kiddos bought me a "Weather Channel, Model 1910 Professional Weather Station" :o)! Anenometer installation was "scary" on a highly sloped roof. But it's lots of fun sitting on a 30' roof peak.

At 1:30PM

Mostly Sunny
Temp: 43F
Rel Hum: 38%
Dew Point: 20F
Winds: NW at 2 MPH (after yesterday, it nice)
Bar: 30.05" and steady

Merry Christmas everybody :0)!

Best of luck with the new weather station. I know I love mine. Belated Merry Christmas and Happy and Healthy New Year
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Quoting presslord:
all denialists must now accept the fact that their most public, most qualified, most credible face and voice belongs to Jesse Ventura...it's a perfect...cosmic...even Devine alignment...and gives me no small degree of pleasure...



Good grief Charlie Brown.
Do you believe your own rhetoric Press?
Thats gotta be the goofiest post you've ever put up! And thats saying something!
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Quoting presslord:
will do Pat....Doug...clearly you missed Ventura's TV show the other night...it was hype of the highest order...Jesse Ventura has emerged as the leader of the denialists...and I find that to be poetic...


I've always thought JV was a moron. Just because I find myself on the same side of an issue doesn't mean much. You don't think there are idiots on your side of this issue?
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I got a white Christmas (:

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Hope everyone had a great Christmas Day and is finally getting to relax a little.

I found this article somewhere, on avoiding craziness with the family at the holidays. It reminded me of this crazy WU dysfunctional love-hate family.
For fun, I invite everyone to edit this thing as they wish ... like Wikipedia but you don't need ANY cred! I'm going to concentrate on No. 4 -- My edits will be in italics.

Article: 6 Tips for Avoiding Family Craziness this Holiday

December 14, 2009 | by Lauren Mackler | No Comments

Out of all the relationships we have in our lives, the ones we share with family members can be the most challenging. And there’s nothing like holiday stress to trigger the old wounds and unresolved issues that plague so many families. Sharing close, loving, and supportive relationships is a basic human need, yet many of our family relationships fall short of this ideal. Most families have some level of dysfunction, with each member playing his or her part.

Becoming aware of your own family dynamics—and consciously changing behavior patterns that create conflict—will help you avoid the interpersonal “land mines” that are often triggered in the midst of holiday stress. Below are some practical tips to help you make the holidays a time of joyful celebration, instead of fodder for unpleasant family feuds.

1. Know your limits. While some people can enjoy hours, days, or weeks of extended family get-togethers, others’ tolerance may only be a couple of hours. Do an honest assessment of the length of time you can comfortably spend with your family without feeling resentful, overwhelmed, or getting hooked into old, unhealthy dynamics—then stick to that length of time. If you have family relations that are difficult or painful, it may be better to keep the visit brief.

2. Practice emotional intelligence. Emotional intelligence means exercising self-discipline in the middle of an emotional reaction to make a conscious decision about what kind of action you want to take. Family members can invoke your deepest wounds. If someone says something hurtful, instead of reacting in a way that escalates conflict, you can say, “It may not have been you’re intention, but I found what you said hurtful. I’d like us to enjoy our time together, so let’s focus on making it a peaceful and pleasant day.”

3. Hold a loving focus. If you start to feel judgmental, angry, or upset, ask yourself, “What kind of inner state do I want to have? Do I want to have a junkyard inside of me—full of anger, sadness, and frustration—or do I want to have a beautiful garden inside—full of love, peace, and joy?” Choosing to stay loving, no matter what, can make the difference between having a pleasant family holiday, or one that depletes, saddens, or angers you.

4. Avoid provocative topics and do not speak of climate change or AGW. Holidays are usually not the best time to rehash old wounds or resolve on-going issues. Keep things light and cordial, and defer discussion of potentially contentious topics such as climate change or AGW to another time or never. Family events often invoke a myriad of complex human emotions—which can be intensified by holiday stress or under the influence of alcohol, especially Canadian Moosemilk mixed with Flood's back painkillers.

5. Keep expectations realistic. One way we set ourselves up for feelings of disappointment and anger is by having unrealistic expectations of others. Instead of imposing expectations onto family members, accept them for who they are. Remind yourself that everyone is doing the best they can, and that we all have flaws and limitations. This will help to preserve your relationships, and keep you from running expectations that can’t be met.

6. Avoid “shoulding” people. Telling your sibling, parent, or child what they “should” or “shouldn’t” do can provoke defensive reactions. Share your own thoughts without running the assumption that you know what’s best for the other person. Even if your insight can be helpful, “shoulding” on people usually creates resistance.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
1117. Patrap
Been a good evening.

Im heading to my Wunderland upstairs.

Merry Christmas everyone
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1116. Patrap
I agree with that for sure.

The Science is not complete..20 years ago we only had 9 Planets known to Astronomy. Now we have detected Hundreds of extrasolar Planets.
So as we learn more,..we can apply that as to the equation or solution thereof.

But the trend is disturbing ,..and even if one was to throw all the data out,.a single 80 year Old Human life has seen Physical Changes,..like spring arriving earlier,summer lasting longer..

Ask farmers worldwide over 45,and the answers are well,disturbing.

Are these natural?

Are the man made causes and effects contributing?

Time will tell,but to continue down the same path as we have for 170 years,.isnt going to help.

We need to make wholesale changes if the models ARE correct.because the latest data shows,..the warming is accelerating.

And thats Bad news for all of us.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Apart from some true believers, it’s apparent that the science is not settled. Nevertheless, many skeptics are willing to support carbon reduction treaties as long as they include language to update or even negate carbon reduction requirements based on future scientific findings. It seems like a wise idea.
Member Since: March 14, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
Satellite images show that the nor-easter now in the Atlantic is displacing most of the Bermuda High, reducing it to the far southeastern North Atlantic. The second system, over the US Midwest, is spinning around itself due to being trapped by the Arctic High, and this is predicted to drift toward Greenland. We've seen some heavy rain in S. Ontario from this storm, but that's stopped and is likely to soon switch to snow. I am still tracking the warm anomaly in the Pacific Ocean, and it looks to be intensifying. Again, the Humboldt cut-off has warmed 2C (close to 3.5F) in the past five days. I'll have information and updates on my blog sometime this weekend. Also, I am predicting an above-average hurricane season for 2010, with 15 named storms, three retired names, and about $70 billion in damage. I will have more info later this winter, when more people are making predictions for the upcoming season.

I see people are criticizing Al Gore again. The opinions of one group on a single messenger does not change the credibility of the underlying message.

Hope everyone has had a wonderful Christmas holiday.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2836
1113. Patrap
Hes a smart Guy.

Plenty of mind,..30plus years of research too.

But his quips on the modeling is skewed at best.

PDF]
Cosmoclimatology: A new theory of climate change (Forwarded)


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
I'm not a denialists, but rather a skeptic. If I were to pick a leader it would be Henrik Svensmark. Maybe you should take the time to educate yourself as to his peer-reviewed and published theory, or you can keep your head in the sand.
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1111. Patrap
O boy..LOL


yada,yada ,yada..once again.

Predictable as a Sunrise.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Here’s the correct link for Al Gore’s Climategate email gaff.
Member Since: March 14, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
Jesse Ventura is a joke
Action: Quote | Ignore User


Hey! He's your leader...not mine...
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1108. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting presslord:


...ah...evrything I listed speaks to credibility...you simply can't be saying Jesse Ventura is more credible than Al Gore...seriously...you just cannot believe that...really...you just can't...


Al Gore thinks Earth's Interior 'Extremely Hot, Several Million Degrees'. Then there’s Al Gore claiming polar bears are endangered by AGW when their numbers are increasing. Al Gore also said “I haven't read all the [climategate] e-mails, but the most recent one is more than 10 years old”, but there are a lot of emails from as late as this year, one from this summer (Jul 23, 2009, at 11:54 AM). Jesse Ventura is a joke, but Al Gore is a bigger joke.
Member Since: March 14, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
in fact..."Venturaists" has a spiffy ring to it...
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all denialists must now accept the fact that their most public, most qualified, most credible face and voice belongs to Jesse Ventura...it's a perfect...cosmic...even Devine alignment...and gives me no small degree of pleasure...
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1103. Patrap
Still..I never get a answer to the question,..

"Where does all the man made Pollutants go?"

Ahh,..the ol Fairies and Pixies wand effect while we sleep...theory still holds.

Them wands are really amazing.

We gotta get a few of them working in Hong Kong and Beijing..

Beijing from Orbit on a good day.






I like reading and working with folks like this,CI..who are relevant regardless of ones view on the matter.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
will do Pat....Doug...clearly you missed Ventura's TV show the other night...it was hype of the highest order...Jesse Ventura has emerged as the leader of the denialists...and I find that to be poetic...
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1101. Patrap
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Al Gore has zero credibility with me. In my opinion he's the "hypester" of the worst kind.


That's carries a lotta weight globally Doug.

"You Betcha"

But it changes nothing.

The warming continues Globally as we yakk here.

And Al's one Bodacious Kisser too.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1100. Patrap
Quoting presslord:


...ah...evrything I listed speaks to credibility...you simply can't be saying Jesse Ventura is more credible than Al Gore...seriously...you just cannot believe that...really...you just can't...


presslord.

I believe the poster is a Ghost,no entries..no wu-history,.why it may be Jesse Hizzelf.

One man isnt a ideology,as some believe Al is.

And if thats all the skeptics can juggle,one Man vs the Data,the Physical and Global effects.

Then their argument is moot..without a sliver of doubt.

Like the JB post from yesterday here posted by a blogger,..JB rant even included a Al Gore gig.

Right sided rethoric induce by the follower of the likes of Senator Inhofe from Oklahoma.
Or a member of the "Family".

I'd rather be adopted by Aliens that be sided with a clan of that Gene Pool.

Take the time if your eyes are here and Google,"Sen. Inhofe,The Family,"

And get back to us here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1099. Xyrus
Quoting iceagecoming:
Nearly 2/3 of US snow covered for Xmas;

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?region=National&year=2009&month=12&day=25&units=e

Hundred freeze to death in Europe;

Must be global warming: The Climate change for 2100 will require big shovels.


How, exactly, does any of the current meteorological phenomena discredit climate change?

It's winter in the northern hemisphere and we also have one hell of an El Nino.

But aside from that, overall warming means more energy. This leads to altered weather patterns. More energy can also cause stronger storms, as well as altered jet streams.

Just because the average global temperature is rising does not mean you will not get colder temperatures in some areas (actually, Europe is supposed to get colder winters). Nor does it mean winters will have no snow (may actually get more as warmer air can hold more moisture).

But don't let anything like information or research slow you down.

~X~
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
France get’s over 80% of their electrical power from nuclear energy and they also reprocess the spent fuel, which reduces nuclear waste by 90%. Less than 2 killograms of waste is produced in providing the electrical needs of a family of four for 25 years.

Problems is, we can’t follow France’s lead because of the environmental lobby in the US. Obvious, these environmental groups don’t believe the hype about how bad AGW will be for the world.
Member Since: March 14, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
Al Gore has zero credibility with me. In my opinion he's the "hypester" of the worst kind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1096. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting MacLorry:


Other than credibility.


...ah...evrything I listed speaks to credibility...you simply can't be saying Jesse Ventura is more credible than Al Gore...seriously...you just cannot believe that...really...you just can't...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
...sorry...but Al Gore trumps Jesse Ventura by any imaginable measure...IQ, education, experience, intelligence, access to credible resources...


Other than credibility.
Member Since: March 14, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
1093. Patrap
I cant believe Im doing this...but here goes.

FOX NEWS Neil Cavuto interview with Australian PM.


Words on Copenhagen from the Australian PM..


HOWARD: I think we have to I think countries that now don't have nuclear power, including my own, should focus very heavily on nuclear power.

I think we should put enormous amounts of additional resources into things like clean coal technology, ways of making the fossil fuels we now use less polluting.

I mean, whatever your view is about global warming, we ought to try and play on the safe side. And the safe side is, at every point, to try and reduce pollution, to try and reduce CO2 emissions going into the atmosphere.

And I think, just as we have found technological solutions to so many other challenges in recent decades, I think, in the end, this issue is going to be fixed by technology. There is, I think, too great a focus on the politics of it and too little a focus on the technological side of it.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1092. Patrap
Quoting iceagecoming:
Nearly 2/3 of US snow covered for Xmas;

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?region=National&year=2009&month=12&day=25& ;units=e

Hundred freeze to death in Europe;

Must be global warming: The Climate change for 2100 will require big shovels.



psst,its called winter in the Northern Hemisphere.


..the Globe has 2 hemispheres,last I checked.

Not much cooling in Australia,..but Cat 5 Cyclones
are ruing the Day there.

And fires,..and drought.

JB didnt cover that,..but hey,Im just a blogger.


DISCLAIMER:::
No animals or Humans were harmed in the creation of this post.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1091. Patrap
I dropped a fruitcake once..and discovered how a Black Hole is created.

But those "event horizons" are hell on a pair of sneakers.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
; )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nearly 2/3 of US snow covered for Xmas;

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?region=National&year=2009&month=12&day=25&units=e

Hundred freeze to death in Europe;

Must be global warming: The Climate change for 2100 will require big shovels.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1088. aquak9
Probably a damned fruitcake tree...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26675

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
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