Blizzard conditions engulf Washington D.C. and Baltimore

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:05 PM GMT on December 19, 2009

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Snowfall rates of 1 - 2 inches per hour combined with strong northeasterly winds are creating blizzard conditions over Portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Washington D.C. this morning, as a mighty Nor'easter continues to gather strength along the East Coast. The surface low will continue to move northeast just offshore the North Carolina and Virginia coasts and strengthen this afternoon, spreading a wide band of heavy snow across much of the Eastern U.S. Washington D.C. had already received 7 inches of snow and Baltimore 6 inches by 7 am EST, with up to 22 inches expected by Sunday morning. This would make the 2009 Nor'easter the heaviest December snowstorm on record in those cities, and the heaviest snowfall seen since the 27-inch dumping during the February 2003 Nor'easter.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from 10:30 am EST on December 19, 2009, showing the Nor'easter of 2009. Image credit: NASA/GSFC GOES project.

Blizzard warnings are also posted for New York's Long Island and Southeast Massachusetts. New York City is expecting up to a foot of snow, and coastal flooding from a 3-foot storm surge.

Some selected storm total snowfalls (in inches) from 1am Tuesday through 10am Saturday, courtesy of the National Weather Service:

...DELAWARE...
WOODSIDE 9.8
SMYRNA 8.0
DOVER 5.0

...MARYLAND...
HOLLYWOOD 11.0
LOTHIAN 3 SW 10.0
SILVER SPRING 1 ESE 9.0
TANEYTOWN 1 NE 9.0
WESTERNPORT 9.0
ANNAPOLIS 8.8
GLENN DALE 3 ENE 8.5
FREDERICK 8.0
ELKRIDGE 7.5
BALTIMORE 6.0

...NORTH CAROLINA ...
ROBBINSVILLE 12 W 24.0
ASHEVILLE 17.0
BOONE 16.0
EAST MARION 15.0
FLEETWOOD 14.0
WAYNESVILLE 13.8
WEST JEFFERSON 13.0
MARSHALL 7 N 12.0
ROXBORO 6.7
GREENSBORO 4.5

...NEW JERSEY...
BRIDGETON 7.3
HAMMONTON 5.7
ESTELL MANOR 5.5

...VIRGINIA...
GREENVILLE 3 E 22.0
AFTON MOUNTAIN 21.0
COVINGTON 21.0
CHARLOTTESVILLE 15.0
BLACKSBURG 14.2
RUTHER GLEN 14.0
LOUISA 12.3
SHORT PUMP 11.8
NEW MARKET 1 WSW 11.0
MANASSAS 1 ESE 8.0

...WEST VIRGINIA...
MARLINTON 26.0
FRIARS HILL 25.0
WILLIAMSBURG 22.0
GRANDVIEW 21.0
ELKINS 18.0
HINTON 17.0
ATHENS 16.0
BECKLEY 16.0
PRINCETON 14.4
CLARKSBURG 9.0

Tornadoes and flooding rains hit Florida
In Florida, severe thunderstorms associated with the Nor'easter's cold front spawned three tornadoes on Friday. The most significant one was a twister that hit Wauchula in Hardee County, damaging fifteen cars and buildings at an assisted living facility. An EF0 tornado hit southeast Key West and neighboring Stock Island, another tornado touched down near Homestead. None of the tornadoes caused injuries, though two people were injured by flying glass caused by a heavy thunderstorm in North Miami Beach. That city received 14.25 inches of rain in the 24 hours ending at 7am Friday. Heavy rains of up to 13.32" also hit Hollywood, flooding the downtown area and stranding cars.

Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, has gone from the frying pan into the snow machine--Ricky is snowbound in Washington D.C.! His latest post, from the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit, called The Party is Over: Copenhagen Devolved presents a fascinating look at what it was like to be at the conference, and what was (and was not) accomplished there. I'll be posting my own summary of the legacy of the Copenhagen talks early next week.

Next post
I'll have another post Monday.

Jeff Masters

pentax (natocko)
Over the hills...
pentax
Snowy Fingers.... (JasonMac78)
... on a stand of pines in my backyard. Woke up to about ten inches of snow, this morning. Trying to dig out, may get more snow, today. Can't drive out to find any landscape vista shots, so I'll make do with the neighborhood, for now....
Snowy Fingers....

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335. Patrap
8:37 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
..psssst!!


Dr.Jeff Masters has a New Entry guys
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
334. stribe37
8:34 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Some medium-sized flakes of snow coming down now at my location in S. Ontario, on the backside of the storm now over the Atlantic and looking like a hurricane. It's probably going to snow like this for a few more hours, and we'll get close to an inch I think. But that's nothing compared to what has fallen in the US eastern seaboard!


And the GEM/Canadian model is forecasting a high of 8 on Christmas Eve w/rain and above freezing mix on Christmas Day :( Hopefully that model is wrong.
Member Since: November 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
333. AstroHurricane001
8:22 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Some medium-sized flakes of snow coming down now at my location in S. Ontario, on the backside of the storm now over the Atlantic and looking like a hurricane. It's probably going to snow like this for a few more hours, and we'll get close to an inch I think. But that's nothing compared to what has fallen in the US eastern seaboard!
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2834
332. hydrus
8:16 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
PcolaDan- It handles incredibly well and has some speed too.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
331. PensacolaDoug
8:05 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting weatherbro:
The GFS must be on rum. They want to give the Florida Peninsula a blizzard Christmas Day on into the weekend due to a developing low a stalled frontal boundary well-southeast of Florida.

Heck! That'd be the ultimate Christmas present. But if true, I doubt it'll be that big lol(maybe a dusting or a few inches but I won't kid myself). Other modals are a bit confused so I don't know.:)

On a reality note, central Florida should get some severe weather on Christmas Eve followed by an arctic blast(according to some modals, the coldest air of the season)!!! If consistent, you ain't seen nothin' yet!



What run of the GFS? I looked at the 12Z I didn;'t see anything like your are describing.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
330. PcolaDan
8:05 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting PcolaDan:


Not really sure. Pretty ingenious I think. Just found this:
This is a 16mm demo film of the Armstead Snow Motors Company concept snow vehicle. It was filmed in 1924. The concept is applied to a Fordson tractor and a Chevrolet automobile. The original film is part of the collections of the Archives of Michigan. The text of the original patent is at: tinyurl.com/ckmj3o


Which led me to this, The Spiral Track Autonomous Robot (STAR). Yours for only $15000. But hey, it can even be equipped with Micropower Impulse Radar (MIR) land mine detection technology. :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
329. Patrap
8:03 PM GMT on December 20, 2009

All the while..the warming continues unabated,..since the CO2 Fairies and Methane Pixies are off for the Holidays.

There's no Harry Potter wands to "poof' away the emissions pouring into our Atmosphere,24/7/365.

Where do the pollutants go I must ask..?



Merry Xmas
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
328. PcolaDan
8:02 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting hydrus:
What is that called?


Not really sure. Pretty ingenious I think. Just found this:
This is a 16mm demo film of the Armstead Snow Motors Company concept snow vehicle. It was filmed in 1924. The concept is applied to a Fordson tractor and a Chevrolet automobile. The original film is part of the collections of the Archives of Michigan. The text of the original patent is at: tinyurl.com/ckmj3o
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
327. iceagecoming
8:00 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting atmoaggie:

Looks like a one-sided list of not-climate to me, with no mention of PDO changes, record low temps, etc. So, tail pipes caused Katrina, huh? And dust storms in the Gobi Desert? LOL. And the cost of health care. And the housing market dive? And the grounds in the bottom of my coffee cup are directly attributable to Bush not signing Kyoto.
*Short version: Boy do you take AGW and events over the top*

With all of that, you do realize every one of those that you might call an alarming event could have happened regardless, right?

Alarmism, fear, misattribution are dangerous when facing a global issue, too.

(And I saw geese flying south, too)


After all the above looky what I found on AFP:

Cold snap causes holiday travel chaos in Europe

by Dave Clark Dave Clark – Sun Dec 20, 10:34 am ET
PARIS (AFP) – Tens of thousands of European travellers were stranded Sunday in rail stations, traffic jams and airports as heavy snow and ice caused massive disruption at the start of the Christmas holiday season.

At least 19 people froze to death, mainly in Poland and mostly homeless people or drinkers caught out in temperatures that were glacial across Europe, plunging as low as minus 33 Celsius (minus 27 Fahrenheit) in parts of Germany.


Oh , and go to this BGS web site, they describe
some of what we are experiencing, and I can't
image the British Government funding deniers!

http://www.bgs.ac.uk/search/advsearch.cfm?q=ice%20ages&qFileType=all&qCollection=all&start=1

select "How an ice age began"
Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1028
326. atmoaggie
7:57 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Man's contribution is definitely more than 1%. In fact, the natural contribution to recent global warming is likely no more than one-third, as solar activity cannot explain the warming post-1975. The low levels of solar activity have kept temperatures stable for the past five years, but once it picks up again I estimate that we'll get past the 1C (1.8F) mark for warming since 1900 by 2014. Link Link

There is far more to it than just solar activity. Ya left out the PDO, well known to leave a warming signal, too. And we were in the positive from ~1979 to ~2003 (mostly).



We have not measured enough of these cycle well enough to know their relative contributions...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
325. hydrus
7:53 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting PcolaDan:
Snow Vehicle Concept (1924)

You guys up there could use this now. Even better than a snowmobile.
What is that called?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
324. hydrus
7:53 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting weatherbro:
The GFS must be on rum. They want to give the Florida Peninsula a blizzard Christmas Day on into the weekend due to a developing low a stalled frontal boundary well-southeast of Florida.

Heck! That'd be the ultimate Christmas present. But if true, I doubt it'll be that big lol(maybe a dusting or a few inches but I won't kid myself). Other modals are a bit confused so I don't know.:)

On a reality note, central Florida should get some severe weather on Christmas Eve followed by an arctic blast(according to some modals, the coldest air of the season)!!! If consistent, you ain't seen nothin' yet!
It should Be a interesting storm to watch.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
323. PcolaDan
7:50 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Snow Vehicle Concept (1924)

You guys up there could use this now. Even better than a snowmobile.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
322. weatherbro
7:50 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
The GFS must be on rum. They want to give the Florida Peninsula a blizzard Christmas Day on into the weekend due to a developing low a stalled frontal boundary well-southeast of Florida.

Heck! That'd be the ultimate Christmas present. But if true, I doubt it'll be that big lol(maybe a dusting or a few inches but I won't kid myself). Other modals are a bit confused so I don't know.:)

On a reality note, central Florida should get some severe weather on Christmas Eve followed by an arctic blast(according to some modals, the coldest air of the season)!!! If consistent, you ain't seen nothin' yet!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1214
320. hydrus
7:19 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting weatherbro:


Since the HPC has tracked this next storm system much further south and east, heavy rain is more likely in Nashville followed by snow.:)
The gem model shows a strong line of storms with this next low. Could be another soaker for the south too.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
319. nyhurricaneboy
7:11 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Good afternoon!

It looks like a winter wonderland here in NY. And sounds like one too... :)

P.S. I encourage you to drop by Weather Chat!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 104 Comments: 503
318. weatherbro
7:05 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting hydrus:
T-Dude, will Tennessee receive some severe weather from this next storm? I know it is early to ask such a question, just take a stab at it.


Since the HPC has tracked this next storm system much further south and east, heavy rain is more likely in Nashville followed by snow.:)
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1214
317. jerseygrl
6:39 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Meanwhile, halfway around the world:

My sister lives in Antakya, Turkey (40 miles from Syria, in south central Turkey). They have had rain and wind like we have had snow and wind. People have had their roofs blown off, her housekeeper lost the steps to the front door of her house. Friends who live along the river had water seeping into their living room. My sister's house has a 3rd floor terrace. The drains for the terrace became blocked with leaves and other debris from the storm, and the terrace flooded with 6 inches of water, which seeped into the house. It flooded the 3rd floor and cascaded down the steps to the 2nd floor, shorting out the electric to part of the house. Her brother-in-law's garage flooded, and his car died from the water damage.

All of a sudden, 16 inches of snow is looking really really good.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
316. AstroHurricane001
6:33 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting atmoaggie:

That is exactly my problem with saying "global warming caused such and such extreme" when the relative portion of man's input is so very unknown. Is it 99% of measured warming trends? 90%? 50%? 10%? 1%?
Only models have put a number to that question.

Then, moving forward with that great big unknown, we are trying to say this or that will happen or is happening. This or that scary, horrible event will become more common if we don't do something right now.

And if man's contribution is 1%? (given positive and negative feedbacks and the changing nature of climate, yes, is possible)

WHAT!?! We experience average weather all the time, or something very close to it.
I could not do the TV weatherman bit. The ~5 interesting weather days of the year in any given location could not possibly make up for ~360 exceedingly boring ones.

Oh, and a few minutes ago, I saw squirrels running DOWN a pine tree. Your geese thing? Nature is exceedingly variable. I don't think animals are as predictable as you seem to.


Man's contribution is definitely more than 1%. In fact, the natural contribution to recent global warming is likely no more than one-third, as solar activity cannot explain the warming post-1975. The low levels of solar activity have kept temperatures stable for the past five years, but once it picks up again I estimate that we'll get past the 1C (1.8F) mark for warming since 1900 by 2014. Link Link
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2834
315. tornadodude
5:58 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
314. bassis
5:47 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
The good thing is we have very little wind or it would be pretty scary because the snow is not that heavy
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
313. bassis
5:45 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Here in Dover NH we got 5+ in with light snow still coming sown
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
312. Bordonaro
5:41 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 08 FOR EASTERN U.S. WINTER STORM
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2009

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER...AND ALSO
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING HARTFORD AND
BOSTON

BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF BOSTON

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 1000 AM EST...A 977 MB...28.85 INCH...LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...APPROXIMATELY 150
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW FALLING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW...EXTENDING
FROM THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND ALSO LONG ISLAND. LIGHTER SNOW WAS FALLING
FARTHER INLAND. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35
TO 45 MPH WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 100 AM EST FRI DEC
18 THROUGH 400 AM EST SUN DEC 20...

...CONNECTICUT...
NORWICH 17.0
GROTON 16.0
STORRS 15.0
MANSFIELD 14.5
HADDAM 14.0
OLD SAYBROOK 12.0
LISBON 11.0
DARIEN 10.5
NEW HAVEN 10.5
MILFORD 10.0

...KENTUCKY...
HARLAN 7.0
BEATTYVILLE 6.0
WILLIAMSBURG 1NNW 6.0

...MASSACHUSETTS...
SANDWICH 16.0
ATTLEBOROUGH CITY 15.0
MIDDLEBOROUGH 15.0
WAREHAM 15.0
FRANKLIN 14.0
BOURNE 13.5
YARMOUTH 12.0
WAYLAND 11.5
NORWOOD 10.0
BOSTON 7.0

...NEW JERSEY...
ATCO 24.0
MEDFORD 24.0
NEWPORT 24.0
TABERNACLE 24.0
JACKSON 23.5
BLACKWOOD 22.0
SICKLERVILLE 22.0
SWEDESBORO 22.0
TOMS RIVER 21.0
TURNERSVILLE 20.5
CHERRY HILL 20.0
MOUNT HOLLY 16.6
ATLANTIC CITY 12.1

...NEW YORK...
UPTON 24.9
SAG HARBOR 20.0
NORTH BABYLON 19.0
COMMACK 18.2
ISLIP 17.1
MOUNT SINAI 16.1
ORIENT 15.0
STONY BROOK 14.9
FLORAL PARK 13.5
MASSAPEQUA 11.6
BROOKLYN MARINE PARK 11.5
LIDO BEACH 11.5
JFK ARPT 10.9
NYC CENTRAL PARK 10.9

...PENNSYLVANIA...
PHILADELPHIA 23.2
HILLTOWN 20.5
BROGUE 20.0
QUARRYVILLE 20.0
FOLCROFT 19.0
WEST CALN 18.6
SECANE 18.5
PEQUEA 18.0
UPPER CHICHESTER 18.0
ORRTANNA 17.1
WALLINGFORD 17.0

...RHODE ISLAND...
WEST GREENWICH 20.0
PORTSMOUTH 18.0
SOUTH KINGSTOWN 18.0
COVENTRY 17.0
HOPE 17.0
BARRINGTON 16.0

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...MASSACHUSETTS...
PROVINCETOWN MUNI ARPT 64
NANTUCKET 63
BARNSTABLE 62
HYANNIS 54
FALMOUTH 52

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...WASHINGTON, DC...
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY 16.0
THE MALL 16.0

...DELAWARE...
WILMINGTON 17.0
HARTLY 15.5
NEWARK 13.9
WOODSIDE 12.8

...MARYLAND...
OLNEY 23.3
BETHESDA 23.0
COLUMBIA 23.0
DERWOOD 23.0
SIMPSONVILLE 1 SSE 22.9
GAITHERSBURG 1 NW 22.0
GERMANTOWN 22.0
BALTIMORE-BWI 21.1
GLENMONT 21.0
SMITHSBURG 21.0
ANNAPOLIS 20.8
MILLINGTON 20.0
FREDERICK 19.0

...NORTH CAROLINA ...
ROBBINSVILLE 12 W 24.0
ASHEVILLE 17.0
BOONE 16.0
EAST MARION 15.0
RUTHERWOOD 15.0
FLEETWOOD 14.0
WAYNESVILLE 13.8
WEST JEFFERSON 13.0
MARSHALL 7 N 12.0
GREENSBORO 4.5

...OHIO...
BRIDGEPORT 5.0

...VIRGINIA...
INDIAN VALLEY 26.0
MUSTOE 25.4
FISHERVILLE 25.0
ROCKY BAR 3 ENE 24.0
CROZET 1SSE 23.0
COVINGTON 22.6
CENTREVILLE 1 SE 22.0
ALEXANDRIA 19.0
DULLES INTERNATIONAL 18.0
REAGAN NATIONAL ARPT 16.4

...WEST VIRGINIA...
MARLINTON 26.0
FRIARS HILL 25.0
HORSE SHOE RUN 25.0
BECKLEY 24.0
HENDRICKS 24.0
JUMPING BRANCH 24.0
CANAAN VALLEY STATE 3SW 22.0
WILLIAMSBURG 22.0
GRANDVIEW 21.0
CHARLES TOWN 18.0

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
MCCLELLANVILLE 5.96
MOUNT PLEASANT 1 NE 5.38
ISLE OF PALMS 4.80
CHARLESTON 3.93
FORT JOHNSON 3.51
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH 2.96
GOOSE CREEK 4 SE 2.90
HUGER 3 NNE 2.80
BEAUFORT 2.55
WITHERBEE 2.44


THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. SNOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
HOWEVER...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE
LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
2 FEET POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVY SNOW PERSISTS THE LONGEST.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 PM EST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
EVENT.

HAMRICK
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
311. tornadodude
5:38 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting hydrus:


no problem, hope you can get some more feedback
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
310. hydrus
5:35 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


I think there is a possibility, but it really depends on the track of the storm. I think the farther north the storm tracks, the better chance you have of getting severe weather, but it is pretty early to tell.

Thanks for you reply. I had already checked SPC, maps & models. I am just gathering input from the blog.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
309. tornadodude
5:27 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting hydrus:
T-Dude, will Tennessee receive some severe weather from this next storm? I know it is early to ask such a question, just take a stab at it.


I think there is a possibility, but it really depends on the track of the storm. I think the farther north the storm tracks, the better chance you have of getting severe weather, but it is pretty early to tell.



ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200956
SPC AC 200956

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2009

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SCNTRL STATES EARLY IN THE DAY 4 TO 8
PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ESTABLISH A
WARM SECTOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/DAY 4 FROM FAR EAST TX EXTENDING
NEWD INTO THE OZARKS AND EWD INTO CNTRL MS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY
BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET...THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED IN THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND
FIELDS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUGGESTING A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL
MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT AREA FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT FOR DAY 4. A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD
ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING MOISTURE
RETURN AND INSTABILITY FURTHER NEWD ALONG THE STORM TRACK AND WILL
NOT OUTLOOK AN AREA BEYOND DAY 4.

..BROYLES.. 12/20/2009
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
308. Patrap
5:26 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Memphis 5 day forecast

Tuesday night through Thursday...wet weather can be expected with
possible heavy rain and flooding. Latest 00z models were in better
agreement with the handling of a powerful low pressure system that
will impact the area. Generally...went with a blend for timing of
the system between the slower 00z European model (ecmwf) and faster 00z GFS. With
deep southerly flow...increased temperatures several degrees...
towards the 00z mexmos.


The main hazard during this time frame appears to be heavy
rainfall and possible flooding. 00z GFS depicted precipitable water values 1.1 to
1.4 inches...about 220 to 300 percent of average. 00z GFS and
European model (ecmwf) depicted rainfall amounts 1 to 3 inches over the entire
forecast area with possibly locally higher amounts Tuesday night
through Thursday. A Flash Flood Watch may be necessary during
this time frame.


Other hazards during this time frame include strong winds and
possibly even a few strong thunderstorms...though confidence of
these hazards remain low as not sure if strong gusts aloft will
mix to the surface and instability appears to be marginal at best.
Winter weather potential has significantly decreased during this
time frame with a much warmer solution expected
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
307. Patrap
5:25 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
One can use the "SEARCH" box and get a 5 day forecast for anywhere

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
306. hydrus
5:22 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:
here comes my blizzard :P

T-Dude, will Tennessee receive some severe weather from this next storm? I know it is early to ask such a question, just take a stab at it.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19558
305. Orcasystems
5:20 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
I posted this about people shovelling snow last year.. I think it very fitting for some people today :)

Diary of a Demented Snow Shoveler
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
304. PcolaDan
5:05 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting jerseygrl:
Orcasystems "You have to love winter snow.. as long as your only looking at pictures of someone elses house :)"

Very true! Wish I was looking at someone else's house... But here are some more pix of MY house!


Officially 16 inches (I know, not a great picture, but you get the general idea...)


And we have 16" on top of the jacuzzi




The bushes have all but disappeared, and the Christmas lights are just buried.

At least we'll have a White Christmas!


Thank you for sharing your pictures. I was hoping for these. While I don't envy the shoveling, I do miss the beauty of fresh snow. And now the sun is out too. :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
303. BahaHurican
4:57 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Morning again all.

Just a quick peek at the blog. The weather is great today, with temp so far only at 75!!! Ahhh..... refreshing..... lol. And while the airport is reporting "overcast", the sun is shining quite nicely where I am.... cool NW breezes.... no wonder I can't sit inside to enjoy the blog....

Later!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
302. tornadodude
4:43 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
here comes my blizzard :P

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
301. Orcasystems
4:35 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting jerseygrl:
Orcasystems "You have to love winter snow.. as long as your only looking at pictures of someone elses house :)"

Very true! Wish I was looking at someone else's house... But here are some more pix of MY house!


Officially 16 inches (I know, not a great picture, but you get the general idea...)


And we have 16" on top of the jacuzzi




The bushes have all but disappeared, and the Christmas lights are just buried.

At least we'll have a White Christmas!

Wait till tonight... the lights on the bushes under the snow will look quite nice when they are lite up. I had that a few years ago... and hopefully not this year.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
300. atmoaggie
4:31 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting klaatuborada:


Here's a small comment from the peanut gallery. The best way to get the public involved is to explain that the climate changes are a combination of BOTH natural occurances combined with man made interference, and stop the bickering. Show the little steps that can be taken and show the big steps that are being taken to help. Stop the arguing because it turns people off and they don't want to listen to anything.

That is exactly my problem with saying "global warming caused such and such extreme" when the relative portion of man's input is so very unknown. Is it 99% of measured warming trends? 90%? 50%? 10%? 1%?
Only models have put a number to that question.

Then, moving forward with that great big unknown, we are trying to say this or that will happen or is happening. This or that scary, horrible event will become more common if we don't do something right now.

And if man's contribution is 1%? (given positive and negative feedbacks and the changing nature of climate, yes, is possible)
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
But we don't experience averages, we only experience the extremes.

WHAT!?! We experience average weather all the time, or something very close to it.
I could not do the TV weatherman bit. The ~5 interesting weather days of the year in any given location could not possibly make up for ~360 exceedingly boring ones.

Oh, and a few minutes ago, I saw squirrels running DOWN a pine tree. Your geese thing? Nature is exceedingly variable. I don't think animals are as predictable as you seem to.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
299. stribe37
4:31 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
HERE IS 850MB TEMP WIND VECTORS



Thanks: those work. You're using the GFS model I see. Am I reading that 850mb temp/wind vector right where this model appears to be saying the temps aloft would remain cold enough aloft for the precip to fall in frozen form during the Christmas Eve/Christmas Day time frame in Southern Ontario during this next storm event? (I see one frame where temps aloft do briefly seem to get mild near the north shore of Lake Erie).
Member Since: November 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
298. jerseygrl
4:27 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Orcasystems "You have to love winter snow.. as long as your only looking at pictures of someone elses house :)"

Very true! Wish I was looking at someone else's house... But here are some more pix of MY house!


Officially 16 inches (I know, not a great picture, but you get the general idea...)


And we have 16" on top of the jacuzzi




The bushes have all but disappeared, and the Christmas lights are just buried.

At least we'll have a White Christmas!
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
297. AussieStorm
4:27 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting jerseygrl:
Here are some "morning after" photos. Best I can figure, we've got close to 18", although my neighbor said 14.5". Either way, it's too damn much snow!

At least the driveway is plowed, walks are shoveled, and the doggie has a path to his poopy spot!


Bye bye Bundt cake!


When I get up the energy to go outside, I'll measure on top of the jacuzzi--easily the best spot for an accurate measurement.

All of you still getting snow, be safe!


WOW, what great pics. That's a lot of snow. Stay safe all. Goodnight

P.S AwakeInMaryland.... you've got mail.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
296. BaltOCane
4:19 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Baltimore is digging out!
The Primary roads look really good, but all the secondary roads are crap.

Huge drifts everywhere, about 20-22" of snow in the back yard in Baltimore City.

Everyone is out, digging.
Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
295. jipmg
4:13 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
so its still in the 50s in miami..

the forecast was 69
294. klaatuborada
4:08 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Most of these I think can be indirectly attributable to global warming, and yes I think the record cold over North America may have been influenced by it as well. Global warming may not have caused these events, but it's possible that it increased the likelihood of these happening. I said I saw geese flying NORTH, in December, in Ontario.

About the so-called "alarmism", it's a major problem when trying to communicate to the public. If the projected outcomes are not scary enough, people will dismiss it as not a big deal; if it's too alarming, the public's denial machine will set in, and they'll dismiss you as alarmist. Many of the possible effects of global warming are indeed very alarming, but that doesn't nessecarily mean they're alarmist. Hope is a better messenger than fear, but we only have a few more years before global warming goes haywire, so we all need to take collective action if we want a liveable future.


Here's a small comment from the peanut gallery. The best way to get the public involved is to explain that the climate changes are a combination of BOTH natural occurances combined with man made interference, and stop the bickering. Show the little steps that can be taken and show the big steps that are being taken to help. Stop the arguing because it turns people off and they don't want to listen to anything.
Member Since: August 15, 2004 Posts: 23 Comments: 380
293. Orcasystems
4:01 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
You have to love winter snow.. as long as your only looking at pictures of someone elses house :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
292. AstroHurricane001
4:00 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting atmoaggie:

That sure is a far cry from listing a bunch of scary events and implying that they were caused by my tailpipe.

Well, I have to tell you, some of those weather-not-climate events you blame on CO2 prolly do get you dismissed as an alarmist, if you care.
And my personal opinion is that embellishment and exaggeration should be limited to the tabloids. Never should they be allowed in any public policy decisions nor science. Ever. Period.


What embellishment and exaggeration? Just because they sound alarming does not automatically mean they're exaggerated! Sure, predictions and projections about global warming may prove to be off the mark, but otherwise how can we know what the future effects of global warming may be and what decisions to make based on that?

Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get. Climate change is only a change in averages of weather. But we don't experience averages, we only experience the extremes.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2834
291. atmoaggie
3:58 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Most of these I think can be indirectly attributable to global warming, and yes I think the record cold over North America may have been influenced by it as well. Global warming may not have caused these events, but it's possible that it increased the likelihood of these happening.

That sure is a far cry from listing a bunch of scary events and implying that they were caused by my tailpipe.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
About the so-called "alarmism", it's a major problem when trying to communicate to the public. If the projected outcomes are not scary enough, people will dismiss it as not a big deal; if it's too alarming, the public's denial machine will set in, and they'll dismiss you as alarmist.

Well, I have to tell you, some of those weather-not-climate events you blame on CO2 prolly do get you dismissed as an alarmist, if you care.
And my personal opinion is that embellishment and exaggeration should be limited to the tabloids. Never should they be allowed in any public policy decisions nor science. Ever. Period.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
290. jerseygrl
3:54 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Here are some "morning after" photos. Best I can figure, we've got close to 18", although my neighbor said 14.5". Either way, it's too damn much snow!

At least the driveway is plowed, walks are shoveled, and the doggie has a path to his poopy spot!


Bye bye Bundt cake!


When I get up the energy to go outside, I'll measure on top of the jacuzzi--easily the best spot for an accurate measurement.

All of you still getting snow, be safe!
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
289. Orcasystems
3:53 PM GMT on December 20, 2009


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
288. Dakster
3:52 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Has the GFS been hitting the rum and egg nog a little too hard?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
287. AstroHurricane001
3:46 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting atmoaggie:

Looks like a one-sided list of not-climate to me, with no mention of PDO changes, record low temps, etc. So, tail pipes caused Katrina, huh? And dust storms in the Gobi Desert? LOL. And the cost of health care. And the housing market dive? And the grounds in the bottom of my coffee cup are directly attributable to Bush not signing Kyoto.
*Short version: Boy do you take AGW and events over the top*

With all of that, you do realize every one of those that you might call an alarming event could have happened regardless, right?

Alarmism, fear, misattribution are dangerous when facing a global issue, too.

(And I saw geese flying south, too)


Most of these I think can be indirectly attributable to global warming, and yes I think the record cold over North America may have been influenced by it as well. Global warming may not have caused these events, but it's possible that it increased the likelihood of these happening. I said I saw geese flying NORTH, in December, in Ontario.

About the so-called "alarmism", it's a major problem when trying to communicate to the public. If the projected outcomes are not scary enough, people will dismiss it as not a big deal; if it's too alarming, the public's denial machine will set in, and they'll dismiss you as alarmist. Many of the possible effects of global warming are indeed very alarming, but that doesn't nessecarily mean they're alarmist. Hope is a better messenger than fear, but we only have a few more years before global warming goes haywire, so we all need to take collective action if we want a liveable future.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2834
286. klaatuborada
3:33 PM GMT on December 20, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
WOW, what a storm, looks like a former tropical system that just became tropical. This is one for the record books, the storm of THIS century!


lol! We're still getting it on the Cod. We've got freezing fog right now.
Member Since: August 15, 2004 Posts: 23 Comments: 380

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.