November 2009 was warmest or 4th warmest on record, say NASA and NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on December 17, 2009

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2009 as the warmest November on record, beating the 2001 record by 0.02°C. NOAA classified the year-to-date period, January - November 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The November satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record according to the University of Alabama Huntsville data set, or fifth warmest, according to the RSS data set.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Warmest November on record for Southern Hemisphere land areas
Southern Hemisphere land areas had their warmest November on record including Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. November was 1.87°C (3.4°F) above average in Australia, and several statewide records were broken, with New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, surpassing the previous largest maximum temperature anomaly recorded for an Australian state. The highest minimum temperature record for the continent was also broken, with an anomaly of 1.61°C (2.90°F) above average.

Third warmest November on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average November temperature was 4.0°F above average, making it the 3rd warmest November in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. That's a pretty remarkable swing from October, which was the third coldest October on record. Delaware experienced its warmest November on record, Wisconsin and New Jersey their second warmest, and five states had their third warmest November (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, and North Dakota). Eighteen other states had an average temperature that ranked in the top ten. No states had below normal temperatures for the month.

Unusually low tornado activity in November
November was a quiet month for tornadoes in the U.S., with only 4 preliminary reports. November 2009 was the slowest November since 1980, which had 3 tornadoes, and tied for 3rd quietest since extensive records began in 1950. The autumn as a whole was also calm with only 80 tornadoes reported in the U.S., compared to the 2006-2008 year average of 164.

U.S. drought
At the end of November, 9% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the smallest November drought footprint since 2005. Drought expanded across Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, but improved over drought-stricken Texas. For the first time in many years, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona.

U.S. fire activity
November, like September and October, saw below-normal U.S. fire activity in all respects.

Strong El Niño conditions continue
Strong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on December 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño was roughly constant for the 5 weeks ending December 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor continued El Niño conditions lasting through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2010.

November sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
November 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2006 and 2007 saw lower arctic sea ice extent. During 10-day period in the first half of November, arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, but rose above record minimum levels by the middle of the month.

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".

Next post
I'll have another post late Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Gloomy Scene here..Fog and rain
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127915
The GOM low looking impressive. Nice visible rotation.
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Quoting Floodman:


Whoa, there, pardner! I'm from St Louis originally, so I grew up a Big Red fan and turned into a Rams fan...I'm also pro death penalty for Bill Bidwill...


Hey could have been worse. Rush Limbaugh could have been part owner! Sorry Jerry, couldn't resist! Just trying to show you that silver lining!
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Quoting Patrap:
For Jerry's Kids,AKA,Da Cowboy's,..bring ya Ears

New Orleans Saints fans send Dome noise levels through the roof
By Times-Picayune Staff


Whoa, there, pardner! I'm from St Louis originally, so I grew up a Big Red fan and turned into a Rams fan...I'm also pro death penalty for Bill Bidwill...
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127915
Quoting alaina1085:

Oh yea they were. For some reason when the saints play the bigger name teams in the dome they put a whoopin on them. But the teams they should slaughter they struggle. Either way, I think there going to win. Hopefully we can start resting our starters after this game. My boys Shockey and Fajita need to get better.


LOL! You mean Fujita? You're making me hungry talking about Mexican food. You're right I think they'll win too. Good luck!
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Quoting alaina1085:

Wow! Serious business here.


GFS and NAM both have this storm intensifying rapidly, or as we say, "bombing out" as it moves up the E Coast. Wet, heavy snow, combined with 25-40MPH wind gusts and 28-30F temps can create power outages, possibly leaving tens/hundreds of thousands of people in the dark! Yes, this is a potentally dangerous situation!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
New Topic Posted:
South Florida StormWatch
(main site)
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For Jerry's Kids,AKA,Da Cowboy's,..bring ya Ears

New Orleans Saints fans send Dome noise levels through the roof
By Times-Picayune Staff
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127915
what about this thoguh... http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/iahgfsb.png
not trying to be a wishcaster
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Quoting jeffs713:

Carolina and Atlanta both presented matchup problems at the time.

As far as the game Saturday goes... Dallas has a tendency to faceplant in December, and they are not playing that well right now. The Saints have been playing very well (last week not withstanding), and they tend to step it up an extra notch when facing better teams.

I think the Saints will win, especially since it will be in the dome without any weather issues, and while it will not be a complete blowout, it won't be super tight, either.

31-17 Saints.

Who dat? Thirteen and eaux!

Agreed!
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It looks like there will be a major storm next week that will bring snowfall to many place from the central plains to the eastern seaboard for Christmas.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
Quoting Bordonaro:
Well, what a difference a computer model update can make!!!

MAMMOTH Snowstorm, per NCEP, well, get the snow shovels out! Get those "big gun" snow-blowers, out, started and ready!!

A concern is that there may be power outages, looks like strong winds and wet, heavy snow will be falling. I hope people from the Cumberland Plateau in TN up to the S New England States are ready!!! It's going to be a BIG, BAD storm, all joking aside!!!

It would not surprise me to see Blizzard conditions and up to 24" of snow. This is shaping up to be a SERIOUS situation

Wow! Serious business here.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


They did have some trouble with Carolina and Atlanta in the Dome though. Both of those games were TIGHT!

Carolina and Atlanta both presented matchup problems at the time.

As far as the game Saturday goes... Dallas has a tendency to faceplant in December, and they are not playing that well right now. The Saints have been playing very well (last week not withstanding), and they tend to step it up an extra notch when facing better teams.

I think the Saints will win, especially since it will be in the dome without any weather issues, and while it will not be a complete blowout, it won't be super tight, either.

31-17 Saints.

Who dat? Thirteen and eaux!
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


They did have some trouble with Carolina and Atlanta in the Dome though. Both of those games were TIGHT!

Oh yea they were. For some reason when the saints play the bigger name teams in the dome they put a whoopin on them. But the teams they should slaughter they struggle. Either way, I think there going to win. Hopefully we can start resting our starters after this game. My boys Shockey and Fajita need to get better.
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Hey at this rate of rain we may catch up to the big easy in a day or two its happened before.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting alaina1085:

My point exactly. They seem to struggle on the road. Hence why we need/want home field advantage.


They did have some trouble with Carolina and Atlanta in the Dome though. Both of those games were TIGHT!
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Quoting Jeff9641:
These storms in S FL could be the supercells that are forcast to move into Central Florida later tonight as the warm front lifts north. Palm Beach is getting it bad right now. It appears there could be a cell merger in the works around WPB.


You could be right but there not moving at all, maybe even some southern motion. But there just single cell storms right now. just big rain makers.
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Well, what a difference a computer model update can make!!!

MAMMOTH Snowstorm, per NCEP, well, get the snow shovels out! Get those "big gun" snow-blowers, out, started and ready!!

A concern is that there may be power outages, looks like strong winds and wet, heavy snow will be falling. I hope people from the Cumberland Plateau in TN up to the S New England States are ready!!! It's going to be a BIG, BAD storm, all joking aside!!!

It would not surprise me to see Blizzard conditions and up to 24" of snow. This is shaping up to be a SERIOUS situation
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Floodman:


I'm with you...no way that a document in Spanish was presented in a court in San Antonio and no one could read it...


Something is fishy definitely. Maybe it was some lazy employee that just let it go through because it was the easiest thing to do.
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El Nino conditions are intensifying almost exponentially. Also, arctic sea ice is dropping again and about to set another record low. Some areas off Greenland are warmer than 10C, and warm water is collecting in subarctic harbours.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Since the Jags played the Colts to a 14-12 game in Indy they might be able to make a game of it. It seems New Orleans puts the pedal down in the Dome. They've mostly been blowing teams out there.

My point exactly. They seem to struggle on the road. Hence why we need/want home field advantage.
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Quoting alaina1085:

If we can crush the Giants and the Pats, the Cowboy's are gettin creamed! Especially because we will be in the dome. Just my prediction tho :p WHO DAT? SAINTS DAT!


Sometimes the teams you'd think would be easier present match-up problems. The Pats and Giants aren't really any better than the Cowboys on any given day. I know the Giants beat them twice but then again the Cowboys beat the Eagles in Philly who beat the Giants TWICE. Go figure. I like the Cowboys and Saints so I don't dislike either team but upsets happen.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Of course there are bigger things going on in the world but what if this guy was a child molester or he abused the kid? There was obviously a reason the child was pleading to not be given back to his father.


Ya thats true, just hope for the kids safety.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Sorry, but I got a feeling there is a lot of BS in that report. I'm not disagreeing with the kidnap charge, technically, if he doesn't have custody, they are right. But I don't for a minute believe a lot of what they are saying. I mean, really, they couldn't find someone there that speaks Spanish??? This is San Antonio we're talking about! I would conservatively guess that at least 1/4 of the court clerks speak Spanish there. Which leads me to think this is just a real nasty custody battles where the lies are flying all over. And these days, kids have been known to turn their parents in for abuse because they got spanked. This is another case of a newscast with very little substantiated fact and a lot of suppositions.


I'm with you...no way that a document in Spanish was presented in a court in San Antonio and no one could read it...
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The 12z models that have came are deepening the Nor'easter forecasted to threaten a widespread area along the eastern seaboard. The GFS 12z has a pressure of 994mb over Georgia and deepens the system to 980mb thereafter. The NAM and the ECMWF seem to indicate the system pushing further north affect areas north of the Mason-Dixon Line with the heaviest in the east. Conversely, the GFS and GGEM have the system pushes away from the coast when the low reaches the Delmarva Peninsula. The ensemble mean of those models feature a similar solution. I will continue to lean towards the GFS/GGEM solution but certainly not discount the ECMWF/NAM solution. Totals continue to look highest in the western areas of North Carolina and back towards West Virginia, most of Virginia, Maryland, and the Delmarva Peninsula. Models show strong mid level omega forcing and great UVV to support heavy accumulating snowfall:



Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30355
307

I'm just mad I missed the Howard Schmock concert
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Quoting alaina1085:

If we can crush the Giants and the Pats, the Cowboy's are gettin creamed! Especially because we will be in the dome. Just my prediction tho :p WHO DAT? SAINTS DAT!


well... I am pretty sure they will win, but you had to take the RedSkins to OT, and had to come back against the Dolphins, so who knows!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8312
Quoting tornadodude:


I hope not!! Go Colts! ha and well I expect New Orleans to beat Dallas, but I think it will be fairly close. oh it is sunny and chilly here ;)


Since the Jags played the Colts to a 14-12 game in Indy they might be able to make a game of it. It seems New Orleans puts the pedal down in the Dome. They've mostly been blowing teams out there.
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Quoting tornadodude:


I hope not!! Go Colts! ha and well I expect New Orleans to beat Dallas, but I think it will be fairly close. oh it is sunny and chilly here ;)

If we can crush the Giants and the Pats, the Cowboy's are gettin creamed! Especially because we will be in the dome. Just my prediction tho :p WHO DAT? SAINTS DAT!
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318. xcool
who dat
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Quoting tornadodude:
This is sad, and I cannot believe the courts fell for it. link


Sorry, but I got a feeling there is a lot of BS in that report. I'm not disagreeing with the kidnap charge, technically, if he doesn't have custody, they are right. But I don't for a minute believe a lot of what they are saying. I mean, really, they couldn't find someone there that speaks Spanish??? This is San Antonio we're talking about! I would conservatively guess that at least 1/4 of the court clerks speak Spanish there. Which leads me to think this is just a real nasty custody battles where the lies are flying all over. And these days, kids have been known to turn their parents in for abuse because they got spanked. This is another case of a newscast with very little substantiated fact and a lot of suppositions.
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Quoting tornadodude:


I hope not!! Go Colts! ha and well I expect New Orleans to beat Dallas, but I think it will be fairly close. oh it is sunny and chilly here ;)


Yeah, Go Colts!
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Hey TDude, think the Jags can pull the upset tonight? I'm not seeing it but stranger things have happened. New Orleans should beat Dallas too but they've had some close games this year to lesser teams. NO seems to really ratchet up their game when playing better opposition though. Sorry...back to weather...starting to cloud up and wind picking up too...rain on the way hopefully!


I hope not!! Go Colts! ha and well I expect New Orleans to beat Dallas, but I think it will be fairly close. oh it is sunny and chilly here ;)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8312
Hey TDude, think the Jags can pull the upset tonight? I'm not seeing it but stranger things have happened. New Orleans should beat Dallas too but they've had some close games this year to lesser teams. NO seems to really ratchet up their game when playing better opposition though. Sorry...back to weather...starting to cloud up and wind picking up too...rain on the way hopefully!
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Rain rain go away...
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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8312
Quoting StormChaser81:


Thats not that Bad, a lot worse things going in this world. He just really wanted his son.


Of course there are bigger things going on in the world but what if this guy was a child molester or he abused the kid? There was obviously a reason the child was pleading to not be given back to his father.
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I'm not looking forward to seeing snow in NC. I hope the rain/snow line stays west of Raleigh.
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No end in sight either, sheesh. I am at work in Jupiter. Going to be a messy ride home.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
318 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

...HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO
SATURDAY.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE RAIN WILL BECOME
MIXED WITH SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...AND SOME LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AREAS. LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM. THE WATCH
AREAS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TNZ012>014-035>037-067-180430-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0014.091218T1800Z-091220T0000Z/
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-ROANE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...
WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE
318 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

* A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8312
Wow,is LA getting dumped on,like they need me to tell them.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 877 Comments: 15711
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Whoa! That is incredible. I can't believe that. Yyou'd think about every city in TX would have at least one bi-lingual staff member who could have interpreted that considering the state's proximity to Mexico! Jeez!


It's incredible... he might have had inside help I suspect, but who knows :/
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8312
Quoting tornadodude:
This is sad, and I cannot believe the courts fell for it. link


Whoa! That is incredible. I can't believe that. You'd think about every city in TX would have at least one bi-lingual staff member who could have interpreted that considering the state's proximity to Mexico! Jeez!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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