November 2009 was warmest or 4th warmest on record, say NASA and NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on December 17, 2009

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2009 as the warmest November on record, beating the 2001 record by 0.02°C. NOAA classified the year-to-date period, January - November 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The November satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record according to the University of Alabama Huntsville data set, or fifth warmest, according to the RSS data set.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Warmest November on record for Southern Hemisphere land areas
Southern Hemisphere land areas had their warmest November on record including Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. November was 1.87°C (3.4°F) above average in Australia, and several statewide records were broken, with New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, surpassing the previous largest maximum temperature anomaly recorded for an Australian state. The highest minimum temperature record for the continent was also broken, with an anomaly of 1.61°C (2.90°F) above average.

Third warmest November on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average November temperature was 4.0°F above average, making it the 3rd warmest November in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. That's a pretty remarkable swing from October, which was the third coldest October on record. Delaware experienced its warmest November on record, Wisconsin and New Jersey their second warmest, and five states had their third warmest November (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, and North Dakota). Eighteen other states had an average temperature that ranked in the top ten. No states had below normal temperatures for the month.

Unusually low tornado activity in November
November was a quiet month for tornadoes in the U.S., with only 4 preliminary reports. November 2009 was the slowest November since 1980, which had 3 tornadoes, and tied for 3rd quietest since extensive records began in 1950. The autumn as a whole was also calm with only 80 tornadoes reported in the U.S., compared to the 2006-2008 year average of 164.

U.S. drought
At the end of November, 9% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the smallest November drought footprint since 2005. Drought expanded across Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, but improved over drought-stricken Texas. For the first time in many years, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona.

U.S. fire activity
November, like September and October, saw below-normal U.S. fire activity in all respects.

Strong El Niño conditions continue
Strong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on December 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño was roughly constant for the 5 weeks ending December 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor continued El Niño conditions lasting through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2010.

November sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
November 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2006 and 2007 saw lower arctic sea ice extent. During 10-day period in the first half of November, arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, but rose above record minimum levels by the middle of the month.

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".

Next post
I'll have another post late Friday.

Jeff Masters

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THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL CAME OUT OF THE 18Z NAM...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 FEET OF SNOW IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN VA AND CENTRAL MD/WASHINGTON DC.
______________________________________________

Wow!!! This is starting to concern me here. This place turns into a nightmare when 6 inches falls. I happen to live in Annapolis MD. Looks like were in store for a monster!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
401. VAbeachhurricanes
10:04 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:
The way things look the ECMWF and the NAM may have better solutions that the GFS. Looks like the jet will allow the system to come up a bit west and perhaps a little more north before exiting.


what are the differences between the two models? more snow in the nam?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6062
400. VAbeachhurricanes
9:56 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
18z gfs running
36HR
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6062
399. Patrap
9:54 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
New Guidance travels FAST...!

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
398. Drakoen
9:54 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
The way things look the ECMWF and the NAM may have better solutions that the GFS. Looks like the jet will allow the system to come up a bit west and perhaps a little more north before exiting.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
397. Patrap
9:52 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
60 hour forecast color surface Map




988mb Low
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
396. VAbeachhurricanes
9:51 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
HAVE
BUFFERED AREAS OF SE VA/MD WITH 3-6" (I.E.
WAKEFIELD/WILLIAMSBURG/SALISBURY MD)


ill take that
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6062
395. Floodman
9:50 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting Patrap:


We had a inch of Snow last Dec 11th here,and a inch Xmas Day 04...

So we may see the wet meet the Artic Air yet..



Truth indeed! I lived in Mandeville in '04; it was amazing seeing actual snowfall on Christmas day...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
394. Drakoen
9:50 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION


DAY 2...

MID ATLANTIC/ADJACENT APPALACHIANS...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE INTENSE CYCLONE ON DAY
TWO...WITH A WELL DEFINED COUPLED UPPER JET PATTERN DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH MAGNITUDE AND PERSISTENT
LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL JETS. THE 12-18Z NAM NOW SHOW SNOW OF
HISTORIC PROPORTIONS IN THE CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHWEST VA TO
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE SHARPLY
INCREASED AMOUNTS FROM PRIOR RUNS...AS HAVE THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS.
THE 12Z GFS BECAME AN EASTERN OUTLIER WITH THE CYCLONE TRACK...SO
ITS LOWER AMOUNTS WERE GIVEN LESS WEIGHT. THE MANUAL PROGS
BLENDED THE HEAVIER ECMWF/UKMET/09Z SREF MEAN/12Z GEFS MEAN. THE
MORE INTENSE CYCLONE AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE DOWNSTREAM MID LEVEL
RIDGE HAS LED TO A FURTHER WEST DRIFT IN THE RAIN-SNOW TRANSITION
LINE IN VA/MD...SO LATER FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TRANSITION ZONE TO CONTINUE TO CHANGE. THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL CAME OUT OF THE 18Z NAM...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 FEET OF SNOW IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN VA AND CENTRAL MD/WASHINGTON DC.
A HIGH RISK OF A FOOT
WAS SHOWN WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF SUFFICIENT QPF WHERE TEMPS ARE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AMONG THE 12-18Z NAM/12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z
GEFS MEAN/09Z SREF MEAN IN INTERIOR VA.



Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
393. Patrap
9:50 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
plus 48 hrs

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
392. Bordonaro
9:49 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
388 and 389.

Get ready, here it comes, your possible Snowstorm of the Century!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
391. Patrap
9:48 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Current




plus 24hrs




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
390. GBlet
9:48 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
My favorite storm supplies include popcorn and hot chocolate. We use oil lamps and candles as both can help provide a little heat. USE WITH CAUTION!! We have a well, so we also have water jugged and ready. I have a small gennie for tv and computer.
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
389. nrtiwlnvragn
9:47 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION


DAY 2...

MID ATLANTIC/ADJACENT APPALACHIANS...
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE INTENSE CYCLONE ON DAY
TWO...WITH A WELL DEFINED COUPLED UPPER JET PATTERN DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH MAGNITUDE AND PERSISTENT
LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL JETS. THE 12-18Z NAM NOW SHOW SNOW OF
HISTORIC PROPORTIONS IN THE CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHWEST VA TO
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE SHARPLY
INCREASED AMOUNTS FROM PRIOR RUNS...AS HAVE THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS.
THE 12Z GFS BECAME AN EASTERN OUTLIER WITH THE CYCLONE TRACK...SO
ITS LOWER AMOUNTS WERE GIVEN LESS WEIGHT. THE MANUAL PROGS
BLENDED THE HEAVIER ECMWF/UKMET/09Z SREF MEAN/12Z GEFS MEAN. THE
MORE INTENSE CYCLONE AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE DOWNSTREAM MID LEVEL
RIDGE HAS LED TO A FURTHER WEST DRIFT IN THE RAIN-SNOW TRANSITION
LINE IN VA/MD...SO LATER FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TRANSITION ZONE TO CONTINUE TO CHANGE. THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL CAME OUT OF THE 18Z NAM...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 FEET OF SNOW IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN VA AND CENTRAL MD/WASHINGTON DC.
A HIGH RISK OF A FOOT
WAS SHOWN WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF SUFFICIENT QPF WHERE TEMPS ARE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AMONG THE 12-18Z NAM/12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z
GEFS MEAN/09Z SREF MEAN IN INTERIOR VA.

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10875
388. bwi
9:47 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
More HPC, yikes...

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
333 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009


...CONCERNING EASTERN CONUS STORM...

A STRONG COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE MATURING JUST OFF THE FL/GA COAST
FRI EVNG WITH THE WARM SECTOR PRECIP HAVING PUSHED OFFSHORE.
UPSTREAM UPR TROF WILL BE BE DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A
STRONG LEAD SHRTWV THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE...A DEEP MSTR POOL WILL DRIFT NWD FROM THE GULF AND FEED
AN ACTIVE COLD SECTOR PRECIP REGIME...ALONG WITH MSTR WRAPPING WWD
FROM THE ATLANTIC AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. MODELS ARE RAPIDLY
CONVERGING ON A WET SOLUTION LED BY THE 12Z NAM WHICH SHOWS
PROLIFIC LIQUID-EQUIV FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND. GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN KEEPING THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MSTR FARTHER OFFSHORE...WHILE THE CONSENSUS INCLUDING
SREF/GEFS/UKMET/NAM/CMC ALL SHOW 1.5-2 INCHES WRAPPING WELL
INLAND...AND OVER 2 INCHES IN THE MID ATLANTIC. HPC USED SOME
BLENDED ENSEMBLES AND 12Z ECMWF HERE. PLEASE REFER TO QPFHSD FOR
DETAILS SINCE THIS WILL HAVE DRAMATIC WINTER IMPACTS.

ORAVEC/SOWKO

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
387. Patrap
9:45 PM GMT on December 17, 2009


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
386. AstroHurricane001
9:44 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
GFS and The Weather Network forecasts (combined totals) expect roughly 40 cm (16") of snow here in S. Ontario from a storm from December 24 to December 29. Ocean temperatures are very anamalous near the Gulf Stream, the Arctic around Greenland, Iceland, and Spitsbergen, near Alaska and eastern Russia, near Japan, and in the southeastern Central Pacific. With a strong El Nino not expected to peak until February, and the GFS once again predicting a disruption of the Bermuda high, it looks like trouble for global weather patterns once again.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
385. Grothar
9:44 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Looking nasty down your way. Stay safe Groth!


All kidding aside. It is nasty. Wouldn't want to be on the roads at this hour. My pool is already to the top. Lucky I have drains on the sides.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
384. Bordonaro
9:43 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


ok thanks that would paralyze us here hahaha


The IMMEDIATE coastal regions are being kept out of the Winter Storm Watches for the moment, see link below, Area Forecast Discussion:

A TROWAL is a trough of warm air aloft. At this moment, this is expected over far SE VA and NE NC.

Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
383. miajrz
9:42 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Here in Coral Gables my commute home looks to be filled with adventure.
Link
Member Since: June 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
382. VAbeachhurricanes
9:38 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting Bordonaro:


Normal snow it would be 7.5 to 10" of snow. IF it's wet, heavy snow, 5 to 7" of snow.


ok thanks that would paralyze us here hahaha
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6062
381. caneswatch
9:38 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting Grothar:
Here is Ft. Lauderdale, we are being deluged with copious amounts of preciptation. I feel we may be inundated by a flood. Looks very ominous. Hope I used the correct words. Getting very windy.


Grothar!!!!!!
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
380. Bordonaro
9:36 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


ok bord question see this quote from the NWS "new precipitation amounts between .75 and 1 inch", but say its snow. Doesnt that mean like 10 inches of snow????


Normal snow it would be 7.5 to 10" of snow. IF it's wet, heavy snow, 5 to 7" of snow.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
379. hurricanejunky
9:36 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting Bordonaro:
Patrap Rosanna Rosanadana!!



CLASSIC! She rocks! RIP Gilda!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
378. hurricanejunky
9:34 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting Grothar:
Here is Ft. Lauderdale, we are being deluged with copious amounts of preciptation. I feel we may be inundated by a flood. Looks very ominous. Hope I used the correct words. Getting very windy.


Looking nasty down your way. Stay safe Groth!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
377. Bordonaro
9:34 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Patrap Rosanna Rosanadana!!

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
376. Patrap
9:33 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting Buhdog:
seems like all it has done is rain near you patrap for the whole winter....

Me starting to think the kids will see snow for the first time on xmas break in Ohio (dayton) cmon Jack frost@


We had a inch of Snow last Dec 11th here,and a inch Xmas Day 04...

So we may see the wet meet the Artic Air yet..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
375. Grothar
9:32 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Here is Ft. Lauderdale, we are being deluged with copious amounts of preciptation. I feel we may be inundated by a flood. Looks very ominous. Hope I used the correct words. Getting very windy.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
374. Drakoen
9:32 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Why doesnt my county get a winter storm watch and everyone else does :p



You will probably receive light accumulations 2-4 inches.

Quoting Bordonaro:


Everyone who is going to be affected by this storm needs to be prepared for possible power outages. The snow will be a "wet, heavy snow", about 7" to 8" snow to 1" of rain. This snow will stick to everything!! Along with temps near 28-32F, winds gusting to 25-40MPH, many residential customers may lose power for an extended period of time (> 8-12 hrs).

Warm blankets, lighting (flashlights), candles are DANGEROUS, firewood for those who have fireplaces, so you can stay comfortable during the snowstorm.



I see higher snow ratios between 12:1 to 15:1 especially in the snow growth region with the greatest mid level dynamics shaping up.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
373. VAbeachhurricanes
9:32 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting Bordonaro:


Everyone who is going to be affected by this storm needs to be prepared for possible power outages. The snow will be a "wet, heavy snow", about 7" to 8" snow to 1" of rain. This snow will stick to everything!! Along with temps near 28-32F, winds gusting to 25-40MPH, many residential customers may lose power for an extended period of time (> 8-12 hrs).

Warm blankets, lighting (flashlights), candles are DANGEROUS, firewood for those who have fireplaces, so you can stay comfortable during the snowstorm.



ok bord question see this quote from the NWS "new precipitation amounts between .75 and 1 inch", but say its snow. Doesnt that mean like 10 inches of snow????
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6062
372. Buhdog
9:31 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
seems like all it has done is rain near you patrap for the whole winter....

Me starting to think the kids will see snow for the first time on xmas break in Ohio (dayton) cmon Jack frost@
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
370. VAbeachhurricanes
9:30 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Why doesnt my county get a winter storm watch and everyone else does :p

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6062
369. Bordonaro
9:29 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


DRAK! youve called this from like 3 days ago :). Will i likely see snow in yorktown even though im closer to the water? what is your opinion?


Everyone who is going to be affected by this storm needs to be prepared for possible power outages. The snow will be a "wet, heavy snow", about 7" to 8" snow to 1" of rain. This snow will stick to everything!! Along with temps near 28-32F, winds gusting to 25-40MPH, many residential customers may lose power for an extended period of time (> 8-12 hrs).

Warm blankets, lighting (flashlights), candles are DANGEROUS, firewood for those who have fireplaces, so you can stay comfortable during the snowstorm.

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
368. hurricanejunky
9:29 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Storms starting to head up from SE coast toward us. Let's see if they hold together. This may get interesting! I assume the severe weather threat is coming from the convergence of the GOM low and the warm front coming from the south?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
367. natrwalkn
9:28 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
I'm betting on 6+ inches for Greensboro.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
366. VAbeachhurricanes
9:27 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


oh right, well maybe you'll get some snow


that would be incredible haha
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6062
365. hurricanejunky
9:26 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting Patrap:
Saints Vs Cowboys always a good game.

Saw Bob Lily,Dallas Vs Jim Taylor,Saints here in Tulane Stadium in 68.


And all the Archie Manning year's..

So forgive us if we're a lil 13 and 0'ish.

New Territory for us long timers.


No problem! New Orleans has been through so much in the past it's time for something wonderful to happen! I'm rooting for the Saints to go all the way even though I'm a Dolphin fan and don't want the undefeated record to fall. I also like the Cowboys so it's a good game for me either way it goes.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
364. tornadodude
9:26 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


monday and tuesday, high school. It sucks...


oh right, well maybe you'll get some snow
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
363. Drakoen
9:26 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


DRAK! youve called this from like 3 days ago :). Will i likely see snow in yorktown even though im closer to the water? what is your opinion?


Yes you will see snow either way you slice it.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
362. NRAamy
9:25 PM GMT on December 17, 2009


"it's all the war-kitten's fault!"
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
361. Patrap
9:24 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting RJY:
How the heck is it that these blog comments get so far from the original topic????


...there's a topic?

Oh my,..then "Nevermind"


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
360. VAbeachhurricanes
9:24 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


you have school next week?


monday and tuesday, high school. It sucks...
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6062
359. NRAamy
9:24 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
356. RJY 9:21 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
How the heck is it that these blog comments get so far from the original topic????


simple...it's all Al Gore's fault...and Sarah Palin...and Global Warming...and Major League Football...and the Governator...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
358. nrtiwlnvragn
9:22 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
US Hazards Assessment

SYNOPSIS: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BRING SNOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY, WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY-MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND SPREAD UNSEASONABLE COLD EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE COAST. FORECASTERS ARE EYEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY OVER THE GULF STATES FROM THIS SYSTEM, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SNOW STORM OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND THE NORTHEAST ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE ARE TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE TRACK OF THIS STORM TO WARRANT POSTING OF A HAZARD AREA AT THIS TIME.



Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10875
357. VAbeachhurricanes
9:21 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:
The 12z models that have came are deepening the Nor'easter forecasted to threaten a widespread area along the eastern seaboard. The GFS 12z has a pressure of 994mb over Georgia and deepens the system to 980mb thereafter. The NAM and the ECMWF seem to indicate the system pushing further north affect areas north of the Mason-Dixon Line with the heaviest in the east. Conversely, the GFS and GGEM have the system pushes away from the coast when the low reaches the Delmarva Peninsula. The ensemble mean of those models feature a similar solution. I will continue to lean towards the GFS/GGEM solution but certainly not discount the ECMWF/NAM solution. Totals continue to look highest in the western areas of North Carolina and back towards West Virginia, most of Virginia, Maryland, and the Delmarva Peninsula. Models show strong mid level omega forcing and great UVV to support heavy accumulating snowfall:





DRAK! youve called this from like 3 days ago :). Will i likely see snow in yorktown even though im closer to the water? what is your opinion?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6062
356. RJY
9:21 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
How the heck is it that these blog comments get so far from the original topic????
Member Since: December 11, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
355. Patrap
9:19 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Saints Vs Cowboys always a good game.

Saw Bob Lily,Dallas Vs Jim Taylor,Saints here in Tulane Stadium in 68.


And all the Archie Manning year's..

So forgive us if we're a lil 13 and 0'ish.

New Territory for us long timers.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
354. tornadodude
9:19 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
353 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

A STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION RATES
WILL GENERALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-501>506-180900-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0008.091218T1400Z-091219T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0008.091218T1400Z-091220T0000Z/
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION
353 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM
FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...
FOOTHILLS...AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SLEET
AND RAIN MAY MIX IN AT TIMES...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL MAINLY AS SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SNOW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY MID DAY SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS EXPECTED IN AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE.
SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS THE UNIFOUR TO 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
COUNTIES.

THE SNOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN A LOT OF
MOISTURE AND WILL EASILY ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND POWER LINES. IN
ADDITION...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEIGHT OF THE
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS MAY DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES...CREATING
AREAS OF POWER OUTAGES
.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SATURDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
353. Bordonaro
9:16 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
I am a quiet, Cowboy's fan, sitting here in the backround, with not too much to say. It's too bad the game wasn't being played in October or November :o)!!! May the team who plays their best win!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
352. Patrap
9:15 PM GMT on December 17, 2009
Gloomy Scene here..Fog and rain
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.