November 2009 was warmest or 4th warmest on record, say NASA and NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on December 17, 2009

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2009 as the warmest November on record, beating the 2001 record by 0.02°C. NOAA classified the year-to-date period, January - November 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The November satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record according to the University of Alabama Huntsville data set, or fifth warmest, according to the RSS data set.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Warmest November on record for Southern Hemisphere land areas
Southern Hemisphere land areas had their warmest November on record including Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. November was 1.87°C (3.4°F) above average in Australia, and several statewide records were broken, with New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, surpassing the previous largest maximum temperature anomaly recorded for an Australian state. The highest minimum temperature record for the continent was also broken, with an anomaly of 1.61°C (2.90°F) above average.

Third warmest November on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average November temperature was 4.0°F above average, making it the 3rd warmest November in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. That's a pretty remarkable swing from October, which was the third coldest October on record. Delaware experienced its warmest November on record, Wisconsin and New Jersey their second warmest, and five states had their third warmest November (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, and North Dakota). Eighteen other states had an average temperature that ranked in the top ten. No states had below normal temperatures for the month.

Unusually low tornado activity in November
November was a quiet month for tornadoes in the U.S., with only 4 preliminary reports. November 2009 was the slowest November since 1980, which had 3 tornadoes, and tied for 3rd quietest since extensive records began in 1950. The autumn as a whole was also calm with only 80 tornadoes reported in the U.S., compared to the 2006-2008 year average of 164.

U.S. drought
At the end of November, 9% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the smallest November drought footprint since 2005. Drought expanded across Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, but improved over drought-stricken Texas. For the first time in many years, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona.

U.S. fire activity
November, like September and October, saw below-normal U.S. fire activity in all respects.

Strong El Niño conditions continue
Strong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on December 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño was roughly constant for the 5 weeks ending December 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor continued El Niño conditions lasting through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2010.

November sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
November 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2006 and 2007 saw lower arctic sea ice extent. During 10-day period in the first half of November, arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, but rose above record minimum levels by the middle of the month.

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".

Next post
I'll have another post late Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Canewhispere, you've been getting clocked up there. Down here, the NRXRAD radar seems to be showing a storm w/ hail j/e/o/ Key Biscayne.
Link
And I heard on our NPR radio which partners w/ the Herald that there are reports of 2 feet of water in Downtown Miami.
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..yup

El Nino winter,..


WU-underful.

Dixie Snow..Rain for days,Noreasters'..

A smorgasbord-o-weather
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
looks like I'll be getting a whopping 1-3 inches of snow tomorrow night through saturday xD
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
God I am killing to many brain cells. Pat's point was just because someone types something on this blog take it with a grain of salt to say the least. Hey Pat speaking of the devil looking 7 day model runs what ever that is out in the Pacific looks like the beginning of the end for those apts. in California. Lastly on the same runs Europe doesn't look to good either.Looks to be plenty of pain to go around this winter.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
448. unf97
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I dont want the low to move anymore west, makes the rain/snow line move farther west with it, would like a small shift to the east if possible lol


I am beginning to believe the latest runs with the theory that this storm will be a "hugger" along the Mid Atlantic coast, then emerging off the DELMARVA area late Saturday into the Atlantic.

The interior areas of Virginia, much of West VA, and interior Maryland I believe will get dumped on pretty good with significant snowfall amounts.

If this scenario pans out, it will be mostly rain along the immediate coast.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


thanks tdude haha


anytime haha anyone else need a weather change?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


I'll get right on that haha


thanks tdude haha
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I dont want the low to move anymore west, makes the rain/snow line move farther west with it, would like a small shift to the east if possible lol


I'll get right on that haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
We've topped the 6in mark, more heavy rain moving in. This could be a pretty nasty flood event shaping up for some folks.

I dont want the low to move anymore west, makes the rain/snow line move farther west with it, would like a small shift to the east if possible lol
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Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting paratomic:
You may be right, but don't speak too soon.

The problem with AGW is it's based on computer models and a prediction of what might happen assuming inaction. But we cannot falsify the future because we cannot travel into the future. So any kind of future forecast of AGW is not proof of anything, it's only a guide to help us understand how the past transitions to the future. It's at best a reliable forecast, but it's not nearly as impeccable as the theory of relativity or the numerous examples in science where the theory or assertion can be falsified. We cannot falsify a prediction. We cannot falsify the figures they give for the effect CO2 has on the greenhouse effect because the figures themselves are based on models. The models are based on the best observational and theoretical work, but they're still only models and are not factual.

Having said all that, I feel that anyone who shrugs their shoulders and embraces ignorance in the face of present conditions in this planetary spaceship, with respect to population growth and its indirect impacts on everything around us, is asking for trouble. It's not debatable that humans are influencing the environment. It's not too incredible that we might alter the climate by accident or intention. We possess power almost unimaginable in day to day life. We (usa) could make uninhabitable several earth-like planets with our nuclear arsenal, and that's almost without trying. In fact, I just googled and discovered that it amounts to 130,000 hiroshima sized bombs. To put this in perspective, the biggest bomb ever tested was the russian tsar bomba. It was the equivalent of 4,000 hiroshima bombs, and they could have scaled it 2x (which I assume means 8,000 hiroshima bombs). Don't underestimate humanity.


I'm not exactly talking about AGW here, but rather about the current El Nino. SSTs worldwide are changing everyday, and I think the first factor that caused a dramatic shift in the warm pool of water away from the West Pacific was Super Typhoon Nida. Then came the cyclone that hit Fiji, drawing the warm pool into the East Pacific. The Humboldt Current is becoming overpowered by the warm water, and a pool of warm water is strengthening east of Brazil and directly colliding with a narrow tongue of cool water offshore Buenos Aires province in Argentina.


Quoting P451:
Superstorm 1993



Today's storm




Now, the mid-week storm in the first week of December was also compared to the storm of the century, but that scenario did not occur because the storm moved out too quickly.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting gordydunnot:
As Pat said earlier just because you type it doesn't make it so, unless your name is John Luke Picard, but in my IMO There is a low developing on the N. end of the Yucatan based on the buoy reading in the bay of Campeche and nw Caribbean.I am watching out for the Tampa area. Oh no here come the storm no comparisons which I may deserve in this case.


you mean Jean-Luc Picard? i don't get it but i like it... :)
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Coastal Nor'easters in the winter can be a challenge! I was born in the Bronx, NY and I lived in the NY-NJ Metro area for 18yrs.

The rain/snow line can be a pain. The closer the Low gets to the coast, the more likely that the E or NE flow off the Atlatic will raise the 850-1000 MB heights ever so slightly.

IF an Arctic High was to the N over N New England, the snowfall totals would be unbelievable. However, that is not the case with this storm.

The line between all snow and the mixture of snow/sleet and rain is forecasted to be from NE NC to SE VA, then near E DE, then across S NJ.

That means places like Virginia Beach, VA, might get about 1" at the end of the storm, and areas W of DC get 24-36". The later runs will help to pinpoint any changes.

This will be a very interesting storm, especially if it "bombs" as it's forecasted too!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
wow...local radio gets its forecast from the weather channel....they are saying 1-3 inches...if people prepare for that and we get 6-12....gonna be some upset people around here...wouldn't be the first, second, or third time twc has been wrong here...they are consistently wrong here, usually in a big way...
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As Pat said earlier just because you type it doesn't make it so, unless your name is John Luke Picard, but in my IMO There is a low developing on the N. end of the Yucatan based on the buoy reading in the bay of Campeche and nw Caribbean.I am watching out for the Tampa area. Oh no here come the storm no comparisons which I may deserve in this case.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
Quoting P451:
Superstorm 1993



Today's storm




Stop it, no comparison
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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
428. unf97
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'd like to see one of GOM lows come across when the cold air is already in place. Been awhile since we've seen one of those.


That scenario may happen in the next 7 -10 days Doug, if you believe in the GFS runs.
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I can't imagine what the 2 day total is going to be at my location. Just got home, still raining steady, approaching 6 inches today alone.


the low stays off the coast a little more...i get 12-16+ inches....it stays as forecast i get 8-12....it hugs the coast...i get a lot more mixing and totals of maybe 2-6...ill be interested to see tomorrows runs on the models...either way...eastern va doesn't know how to and cant handle snow...its gonna be a messy few days afterward...
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Quoting P451:
Superstorm 1993



Today's storm




oh my...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting unf97:


Yes sir! There are going to be a few more with this moderate to strong El Nino pattern, which makes this winter season an intriquing one to watch and track these storms.


It will be fun! I wish the sub-tropical jet would move north a little more that way Indiana could get in on some more storms!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
I'd like to see one of GOM lows come across when the cold air is already in place. Been awhile since we've seen one of those.
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421. unf97
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
The year of GIANT storm systems marches on!


Yes sir! There are going to be a few more with this moderate to strong El Nino pattern, which makes this winter season an intriguing one to watch and track these storms.
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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
The year of GIANT storm systems marches on!
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VA snow map/valid 06z Wednesday

IM GONNA KEEP WATCHING THIS MAP AS IT UPDATES...SHOULD BE INTERESTING TRACKING THIS LOW...
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This Day in National/World Weather History ...
17 December 1903 → Mankind flew for the very first time, as Orville and Wilbur Wright successfully tested their home made glider at Kitty Hawk, on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. They had selected Kitty Hawk as their test site on advice from the Weather Bureau due to good, consistent northerly winds.

17 December 1983 → The temperature at Oklahoma City dropped below freezing. It did not rise above 32 degrees again until New Year's Eve, setting a record length of sub-freezing weather.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting P451:
Tracking closer to the big cities now.





--

8"+ Probabilities. Days 2 and 3.







p451 is there a smaller amount probability map? like 4 inches?
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
El Nino conditions are intensifying almost exponentially. Also, arctic sea ice is dropping again and about to set another record low. Some areas off Greenland are warmer than 10C, and warm water is collecting in subarctic harbours.
You may be right, but don't speak too soon.

The problem with AGW is it's based on computer models and a prediction of what might happen assuming inaction. But we cannot falsify the future because we cannot travel into the future. So any kind of future forecast of AGW is not proof of anything, it's only a guide to help us understand how the past transitions to the future. It's at best a reliable forecast, but it's not nearly as impeccable as the theory of relativity or the numerous examples in science where the theory or assertion can be falsified. We cannot falsify a prediction. We cannot falsify the figures they give for the effect CO2 has on the greenhouse effect because the figures themselves are based on models. The models are based on the best observational and theoretical work, but they're still only models and are not factual.

Having said all that, I feel that anyone who shrugs their shoulders and embraces ignorance in the face of present conditions in this planetary spaceship, with respect to population growth and its indirect impacts on everything around us, is asking for trouble. It's not debatable that humans are influencing the environment. It's not too incredible that we might alter the climate by accident or intention. We possess power almost unimaginable in day to day life. We (usa) could make uninhabitable several earth-like planets with our nuclear arsenal, and that's almost without trying. In fact, I just googled and discovered that it amounts to 130,000 hiroshima sized bombs. To put this in perspective, the biggest bomb ever tested was the russian tsar bomba. It was the equivalent of 4,000 hiroshima bombs, and they could have scaled it 2x (which I assume means 8,000 hiroshima bombs). Don't underestimate humanity.
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wow this is going to be one incredible storm!!!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
New England predictions have gone from a glancing blow to several inches,not going for a major yet up here,gotta wait until tomorrows models.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15581
Quoting Drakoen:
Next week's storm looks even more potent and widespread. GFS 12z Christmas morning:



This model run has next weeks storm as a coastal rain event.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Next week's storm looks even more potent and widespread. GFS 12z Christmas morning:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
Robust NAM 18z and this is assuming 10:1 ratio



Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


what are the differences between the two models? more snow in the nam?


More snow on the NAM,ECMWF,UKMET,SREF,GEFS
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL CAME OUT OF THE 18Z NAM...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 FEET OF SNOW IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN VA AND CENTRAL MD/WASHINGTON DC.
______________________________________________

Wow!!! This is starting to concern me here. This place turns into a nightmare when 6 inches falls. I happen to live in Annapolis MD. Looks like were in store for a monster!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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