November 2009 was warmest or 4th warmest on record, say NASA and NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on December 17, 2009

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2009 as the warmest November on record, beating the 2001 record by 0.02°C. NOAA classified the year-to-date period, January - November 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The November satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record according to the University of Alabama Huntsville data set, or fifth warmest, according to the RSS data set.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Warmest November on record for Southern Hemisphere land areas
Southern Hemisphere land areas had their warmest November on record including Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. November was 1.87°C (3.4°F) above average in Australia, and several statewide records were broken, with New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, surpassing the previous largest maximum temperature anomaly recorded for an Australian state. The highest minimum temperature record for the continent was also broken, with an anomaly of 1.61°C (2.90°F) above average.

Third warmest November on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average November temperature was 4.0°F above average, making it the 3rd warmest November in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. That's a pretty remarkable swing from October, which was the third coldest October on record. Delaware experienced its warmest November on record, Wisconsin and New Jersey their second warmest, and five states had their third warmest November (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, and North Dakota). Eighteen other states had an average temperature that ranked in the top ten. No states had below normal temperatures for the month.

Unusually low tornado activity in November
November was a quiet month for tornadoes in the U.S., with only 4 preliminary reports. November 2009 was the slowest November since 1980, which had 3 tornadoes, and tied for 3rd quietest since extensive records began in 1950. The autumn as a whole was also calm with only 80 tornadoes reported in the U.S., compared to the 2006-2008 year average of 164.

U.S. drought
At the end of November, 9% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the smallest November drought footprint since 2005. Drought expanded across Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, but improved over drought-stricken Texas. For the first time in many years, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona.

U.S. fire activity
November, like September and October, saw below-normal U.S. fire activity in all respects.

Strong El Niño conditions continue
Strong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on December 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño was roughly constant for the 5 weeks ending December 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor continued El Niño conditions lasting through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2010.

November sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
November 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2006 and 2007 saw lower arctic sea ice extent. During 10-day period in the first half of November, arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, but rose above record minimum levels by the middle of the month.

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".

Next post
I'll have another post late Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Wind has settled down here in Tampa Bay.. Strangely calm..

BUT about twenty minutes ago it was pretty breezy.. I could hear a tree outside rocking. Then something hit the roof.. I thought a tree branch was coming down.. But suddenly something fell through the screening in the pool cage. An animal feel into the pool. I went scrambling for the net, but it clawed it's way out. It was a racoon. I opened the screen door and went inside till it found it's way out. It was CRAZY! My cat is still pacing the patio looking for it!
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501. amd
it looks like my flight into philly will be cancelled on saturday...

Look at the precip from Richmond to Philly

With the 12Z ECMWF, the 18Z Nam, and 00Z Nam coming into agreement, I am becoming increasingly confident that this winter storm will rival some of the biggest snowstorms in history from DC through Philly into central jersey.

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Quoting Grothar:


It has not stopped raining since this afternoon. Even the water in my pool is wet. My luck, I had my trees and shrubs power sprayed this morning. Talk about money down the drain, literally. Maybe its all a big conspiracy to keep us inside!!


See, God heard everybody stating, "It is too hot, too dry, we're missing out on the drought breaking rains"! Well, it may be misearble, but ya' need a break from the heat and the drought! Call it your "only personal swamp front'!!

Do you see what you're missing out on, look at this:

00Z NAM RUN 60 HRS, 12-20-09**976MB BOMB S OF NANTUCKET ISL,RI**LOOK AT THE SNOW**

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... HOLLYWOOD... HALLANDALE... EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... NORTH MIAMI BEACH... MIAMI SHORES...

* UNTIL 1115 PM EST

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DANIA BEACH... AVENTURA... HALLANDALE... SUNNY ISLE... BAL HARBOR... NORTH MIAMI BEACH... MIAMI SHORES... AND LITTLE HAITI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE AREA HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 5 TO 10 INCHES AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

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Quoting Bordonaro:


Man, you folks in the Miami-WPB, FL area have your own "private T-storm" complex going on! Has the local meteorologists stated when that complex will move away! Six inches and counting, record breaking rain in your dry season!!


It has not stopped raining since this afternoon. Even the water in my pool is wet. My luck, I had my trees and shrubs power sprayed this morning. Talk about money down the drain, literally. Maybe its all a big conspiracy to keep us inside!!
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00Z 54HR NAM**980 MB L OFF OF S NJ*12-20-09**850MB TEMP/6 HR PRECIP**

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Heavy snow for the Delmarva:

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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Eww! I do not want a repeat of the crossdressing "Press in a dress" picture!

o com'on you liked it admit it already
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Goodness grace's its a raining on the Florida gold coast tonight.Hey press not to upset set you but throw in a couple of firemen and maybe the girls will come around. We have got to have a couple of firemen/weather geeks in this blog.
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00Z, 48HR NAM RUN 12-20-09, 850MB TEMP/6HR PRECIP**984MB L off the DELMARVA

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting presslord:


Fine then...if y'all prefer...I'll do the bikini pic............just sayin'...


Eww! I do not want a repeat of the crossdressing "Press in a dress" picture!
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00Z/ 30 HRS NAM RUN, SA 12-19-09* 850MB TEMPS/6 HR PRECIP:

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Latest NAM run is in process, through 24HRS, LINK BELOW

Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
This system is going to cause a lot of rain over the next couple of days. The surrounding surface pressure is quite high, so we can expect a lot gradient wind.



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Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Here comes another round of heavy stuff.



Man, you folks in the Miami-WPB, FL area have your own "private T-storm" complex going on! Has the local meteorologists stated when that complex will move away! Six inches and counting, record breaking rain in your dry season!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
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Quoting presslord:


Fine then...if y'all prefer...I'll do the bikini pic............just sayin'...


eewwww eeewwww eewwww MY EYES ..... BURNING ALREADY. I'm gonna have to do something to get banned. EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
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Today was quite a rainy day.
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One set of data says warmest November ever beating the 2001 record. One set says 4th warmest since record keeping began (1880). The 3 warmer Novembers weren't mentioned. What you want to bet they weren't within the last 50 years? Could it be reporting facts with an agenda?
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Read this on TWC.com



Winter Storm Takes Aim on Mid-Atlantic
by Tim Ballisty , on Dec 17, 2009 9:28 am ET
7pm Thursday Update: All indications are telling us that the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm is still on.

Recent computer models trends are providing meteorologists with even more intriguing forecasts during the next two to three days (Friday-Sunday).

There is now the potential for this winter storm to impact more than just areas from North Carolina to Virginia to Maryland to Delaware to New Jersey; as if that wasn't enough!

Computer weather models are now indicating the potential for the winter storm to intensify even more off Delmarva and New Jersey coast.

Let's just call a spade a spade. This would be a significant Nor'easter; one that would create major disruptions on the road and in the air for major Northeast cities from D.C. to Baltimore to even Philadelphia, New York and Boston.

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Quoting aquak9:
alaina- ya'll will do what ya always do with the rain...just send it on east, down I-10.

Goodness, ya'll gotta be floating, so much rain in the past week.

Im hating it! My son is getting a 4 wheeler (power wheels) for Christmas and looks like it will be more mud riding then anything.
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alaina- ya'll will do what ya always do with the rain...just send it on east, down I-10.

Goodness, ya'll gotta be floating, so much rain in the past week.
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Quoting Patrap:



Hahaha, Nice. You could totally rock a hat like that.

Quoting aquak9:


well, first ya gotta find two squirrels, two raccoons, two posssums, two sheep...

LOL!
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Although I think Pat and Press would have to much fun screening the photos better get the Doc involved if we want any support.
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Quoting alaina1085:

Pat what we gonna do about all this rain?!?!!


well, first ya gotta find two squirrels, two raccoons, two posssums, two sheep...
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Quoting alaina1085:

Pat what we gonna do about all this rain?!?!!


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Quoting gordydunnot:
aquak9 maybe you can start a WU calendar Press could split the money with you for Portlight. Now that's and idea I'd buy one.


Outstanding idea!!!!!!!!!!!
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that's downright scary, press. Yikes.

I'll take one for the team. You can cancel your order from Venus Swimwear.
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aquak9 maybe you can start a WU calendar Press could split the money with you for Portlight. Now that's and idea I'd buy one.
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Quoting Patrap:

Pat what we gonna do about all this rain?!?!!
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Quoting presslord:


Fine then...if y'all prefer...I'll do the bikini pic............just sayin'...

ROOFFFLLL... Pls let it snow. Funny stuff.
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Quoting aquak9:
BELIEVE ME, press...snow is the LAST thing you want!!! but what the heck, we've definitely got the strong ElNino going on. Chances are I'll be wearing my RedCross vest before I'm wearing a bikini...


Fine then...if y'all prefer...I'll do the bikini pic............just sayin'...
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Quoting aquak9:
BELIEVE ME, press...snow is the LAST thing you want!!! but what the heck, we've definitely got the strong ElNino going on. Chances are I'll be wearing my RedCross vest before I'm wearing a bikini...

LOL!! Aww come on.
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BELIEVE ME, press...snow is the LAST thing you want!!! but what the heck, we've definitely got the strong ElNino going on. Chances are I'll be wearing my RedCross vest before I'm wearing a bikini...
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Quoting presslord:


...let it snow...let it snow...let it snow...


lol :p
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Quoting aquak9:
if it snows here in jacksonville, AND I'm awake to see it (kinda like that tree falling in a forest thing), I'll stand outside in a bikini and take a pic.

Bring it on.


...let it snow...let it snow...let it snow...
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if it snows here in jacksonville, AND I'm awake to see it (kinda like that tree falling in a forest thing), I'll stand outside in a bikini and take a pic.

Bring it on.
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Here comes another round of heavy stuff.

Quoting Patrap:



Clicking on the MSLP tab on the SSD site doesn't show that, apparently SSD needs to update.
Looks like Cyclone Laurence hit Australia at Category 4 strength on the SSHS, at 205 km/h for maximum 10-min sustained winds.
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This is certainly an interesting run.....LOOKS LIKE SNOW INTO FLORIDA.....WOW
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Quoting hydrus:
The low seems to be moving west of the forecast track. Is it just my eyes or is this occurring?



The area down around the Yucatan now has the lowest pressure @ 1008


455. unf97
Quoting hydrus:
The low seems to be moving west of the forecast track. Is it just my eyes or is this occurring?


I think the Low track will go inland over North FL, Southeast GA, then move N-NE to hug up the coast.

If this pans out, the warm sector will actually move a little north of the Jax area, and more of a concern for severe thunderstorms here tomorrow.
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Quoting tornadodude:


anytime haha anyone else need a weather change?
The low seems to be moving west of the forecast track. Is it just my eyes or is this occurring?
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Jimmy John's (: mmm

We had a heatwave today, hit 43
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Canewhispere, you've been getting clocked up there. Down here, the NRXRAD radar seems to be showing a storm w/ hail j/e/o/ Key Biscayne.
Link
And I heard on our NPR radio which partners w/ the Herald that there are reports of 2 feet of water in Downtown Miami.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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