November 2009 was warmest or 4th warmest on record, say NASA and NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on December 17, 2009

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2009 as the warmest November on record, beating the 2001 record by 0.02°C. NOAA classified the year-to-date period, January - November 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The November satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record according to the University of Alabama Huntsville data set, or fifth warmest, according to the RSS data set.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Warmest November on record for Southern Hemisphere land areas
Southern Hemisphere land areas had their warmest November on record including Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. November was 1.87°C (3.4°F) above average in Australia, and several statewide records were broken, with New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, surpassing the previous largest maximum temperature anomaly recorded for an Australian state. The highest minimum temperature record for the continent was also broken, with an anomaly of 1.61°C (2.90°F) above average.

Third warmest November on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average November temperature was 4.0°F above average, making it the 3rd warmest November in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. That's a pretty remarkable swing from October, which was the third coldest October on record. Delaware experienced its warmest November on record, Wisconsin and New Jersey their second warmest, and five states had their third warmest November (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, and North Dakota). Eighteen other states had an average temperature that ranked in the top ten. No states had below normal temperatures for the month.

Unusually low tornado activity in November
November was a quiet month for tornadoes in the U.S., with only 4 preliminary reports. November 2009 was the slowest November since 1980, which had 3 tornadoes, and tied for 3rd quietest since extensive records began in 1950. The autumn as a whole was also calm with only 80 tornadoes reported in the U.S., compared to the 2006-2008 year average of 164.

U.S. drought
At the end of November, 9% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the smallest November drought footprint since 2005. Drought expanded across Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, but improved over drought-stricken Texas. For the first time in many years, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona.

U.S. fire activity
November, like September and October, saw below-normal U.S. fire activity in all respects.

Strong El Niño conditions continue
Strong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on December 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño was roughly constant for the 5 weeks ending December 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor continued El Niño conditions lasting through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2010.

November sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
November 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2006 and 2007 saw lower arctic sea ice extent. During 10-day period in the first half of November, arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, but rose above record minimum levels by the middle of the month.

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".

Next post
I'll have another post late Friday.

Jeff Masters

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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1044 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1044 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009


...FOCUS CONTINUES FOR AN APPROACHING CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR LATE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PENINSULA...THE WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND LIFT NORTHWARD.

A LARGE AREA OF OVERRUNNING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING...THE SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ONSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AFTER SUNRISE AND SWEEP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH.

MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL LIKELY BE PLACED UNDER A TORNADO WATCH...POSSIBLY ISSUED BEFORE SUNRISE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES FRIDAY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTHWARD.
...
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Quoting OuterBanker:
Brought my wife up to DC for spinal cord surgery (successful) and have a slew of followup appointments next week, is this snow forecast for DC for real. They are saying everything from 3 to 5 inches to a foot or more. What say ye?


Latest computer model runs for 00Z (or 7AM EST)
12-18-09 (tomorrow morning) from NAM and GFS.

The NAM is a short term model, forecasting 4 days out, they're indicating approx 3" of rain equivelent (36" of snow) storm total.

The GFS is a long term model, forecasting 16 days out, they're indicating up to 1.20' of rain equivelent (12" of snow) storm total.

This may be an EPIC storm, HOWEVER, the National Weather Service probably will not know for sure until late Fr/early Sa what the total accumulations will be.

My Guesstimate is expect 6-12" of snow in the DC area, more to the W, less towards the coast.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Jeff9641:
That rain in S FL is beginning to head into Central Florida.


She's starting to ramp up again. Maybe I should go to sleep with some swimmies on, lol.
Quoting OuterBanker:
Brought my wife up to DC for spinal cord surgery (successful) and have a slew of followup appointments next week, is this snow forecast for DC for real. They are saying everything from 3 to 5 inches to a foot or more. What say ye?


8 to 12 in an area w nw n ne of storm centre areas s se e ne of storm centre can expect all rain or rain snow mix till passage of storm centre like always stay tune to local and regional weather forecasting offices when planning any out door activity
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Hey Tampa Spin nice to see ya. You are a little bit of a gambler what do you think about the gulf storm.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting zoomiami:
Hello from soggy Miami - drak or Futuremet - do either one of you have a good site for the rainfall observations - current? TIA


I have a good one, right outside my window. JK
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That's one thing we can claim down here in S. fl. if we have drought it can be over in 24 hrs.. I am just worried about tomorrow luckily this rain was confined to the coast and not the whole S.Fl. Peninsula. So we should be able to handle what ever tomorrow brings, hopefully a non event.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Hello from soggy Miami - drak or Futuremet - do either one of you have a good site for the rainfall observations - current? TIA
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Brought my wife up to DC for spinal cord surgery (successful) and have a slew of followup appointments next week, is this snow forecast for DC for real. They are saying everything from 3 to 5 inches to a foot or more. What say ye?
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50 song playlist for the holidays......

Xmas Playlist From TampaSpin
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


West Central PBC X marks the spot






I am in Coral Ridge on the Intracoastal in Ft. Lauderdale. It is wet!!!!!!!!! Flooding all over the place.
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00Z GFS RUN is coming out, link below:

Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Wow. That's a lot of rain in a short period.

Even Katrina only dropped 14 inches over 15 hours...
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latest storm totals local event
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Man it is bad here in NE Dade near Aventura. Very heavy rain. Streets have flooding but cars can still drive without fear of stalling in my area. Hopefully they opened the floodgates, or if this rain continues for another two hours the canal near our property may overflow. In all worst flooding in my area since oct 2000.
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Quoting Grothar:


Where are you located, just generally?


West Central PBC X marks the spot






just sitting there rotating
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Just came out!!!!!!!!

Issued by The National Weather Service
Miami, FL
10:26 pm EST, Thu., Dec. 17, 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... POMPANO BEACH... DEERFIELD BEACH... SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BOCA RATON...

* UNTIL 130 AM EST

* AT 1023 PM EST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED OVER 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN THIS AREA ALREADY AND AN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING FROM THIS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HILLSBORO BEACH... LIGHTHOUSE POINT AND COCONUT CREEK

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Quoting gordydunnot:
I have never seen this happen before because Fl. is basically flat therefore hard to flood. But my son just got home and told me there are road blocks and cars floating on Bisc. Blvd. and Us1 never seen that before good luck to everyone including my girl friend who I have called and is stuck in the middle of this mess. Only good news is like I said it can only get so deep.


You must live close to me Gordy. I am in Williams Island. My wife was driving behind me with a brand new Equinox that we bought today and she was freaking out.
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509...We shall see. I've lived in the Williamsburg area 20 years and kept a close eye on these storms. This area is so dependant on track for snow accumulation, 20 miles east or west makes a huge difference. I do think Richmond and points west are going to get hammered so are DC and Baltimore. Williamsburg South and East will be a tough call. I did save a snapshot to compare later.
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local event approaching 14 inches
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JavaRainbowIRGOM
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520. xcool
hi all new update comeing
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1011 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-181000-COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-
1011 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

...STRONG LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO..
...RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...
...SOME SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES ON FRIDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT WILL CROSS NORTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY WHILE CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH VERY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS AND A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEARPROFILE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHTACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.. SPREADING NORTH FROM THE TREASURE AND
SPACE COAST. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FOUR. THERE WILL BE A
INCREASING THREAT OF ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS AS WELL BY FRIDAY MORNING.

A SQUALL LINE CONTAINING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL REACH LAKE COUNTY SOMETIME AROUND MID MORNING...THEN SHIFT RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS ORANGE...OSCEOLA...SEMINOLE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SQUALL LINE WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS OKEECHOBEE...BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POTENTIAL WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND STATEMENTS...AS WELL AS YOUR LOCAL FORECAST.

IF YOU OWN A WEATHER RADIO...MAKE SURE THAT IT IS IN GOOD WORKING ORDER...CORRECTLY PROGRAMMED...AND HAS A FRESH BATTERY.

$$

PENDERGRAST/CRISTALDI

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


soaking rains over west la spreading e ne ward

Seems like the rain totals from the Slidell radar site are off today, to me... I know there has been some good rains north of the lake and in NOLA. And it has been raining in Baton Rouge all day long, and not at a drizzle-rate, either. (There today...and now.)
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
This could rival Fay, for the east coast, with more rain expected.


Where are you located, just generally?
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I have never seen this happen before because Fl. is basically flat therefore hard to flood. But my son just got home and told me there are road blocks and cars floating on Bisc. Blvd. and Us1 never seen that before good luck to everyone including my girl friend who I have called and is stuck in the middle of this mess. Only good news is like I said it can only get so deep.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113


soaking rains over west la spreading e ne ward
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Hollywood area to my south is in the 10 to 15 inch range. Amazing with more on the way.


5 inches an hour here in Aventura (between Ft. Lauderdale and Miami.) Cars are getting stuck in the flooding on main roads. I just got home, fortunately I have a pickup truck high off the ground. Car in front of me had smoke coming out the front and a cab was stuck at low lying intersection.
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I hate cold AND rain. Either one without the other is fine by me.

But that is mostly what has been going on here in SE LA since late Nov with this pattern if cold-front, gulf low, shortwave.

Cold? Give us dry or snow. Rain? Give us warm.
(The above is what we usually have for winter. If it rains, it is usually an onshore wind and 60F, or warmer. If it is cold, well it almost never even cloudy when below 50.)
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This could rival Fay, for the east coast, with more rain expected.
Port St. Lucie to my north is underwater again. They got 6" in 90 minutes


local high totals occurring
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505**I believe that this time around they may be UNDER-ESTIMATING!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
508. amd
Quoting Bordonaro:


Does the words "EPIC SNOW EVENT" sound appropriate???


for those areas, yes. I almost never hype cast, hope cast, or wish cast, but this storm could become a storm to remember for those in the mid-Atlantic.
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Actually rrm34667 that's what caught my attention a day ago there was absolutely no breeze in Dade county for at least 24 hours which is crazy being on the east coast of Fl.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Hollywood area to my south is in the 10 to 15 inch range. Amazing with more on the way.
Here is what NWS Wakefield is Predicting with the storm for Va. In past storms they have been pretty accurate. Link

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Quoting Bordonaro:


Man, you folks in the Miami-WPB, FL area have your own "private T-storm" complex going on! Has the local meteorologists stated when that complex will move away! Six inches and counting, record breaking rain in your dry season!!



Yeah, it's rather crazy. Seems we have a little break for now, still raining lightly though. It's very weird outside, winds quite variable. Almost as if something is developing right over us.
Quoting amd:
it looks like my flight into philly will be cancelled on saturday...

Look at the precip from Richmond to Philly

With the 12Z ECMWF, the 18Z Nam, and 00Z Nam coming into agreement, I am becoming increasingly confident that this winter storm will rival the blizzard of 1996 and PDII (Feb 2003) from DC through Philly into central jersey.


Does the words "EPIC SNOW EVENT" sound appropriate???
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Wind has settled down here in Tampa Bay.. Strangely calm..

BUT about twenty minutes ago it was pretty breezy.. I could hear a tree outside rocking. Then something hit the roof.. I thought a tree branch was coming down.. But suddenly something fell through the screening in the pool cage. An animal feel into the pool. I went scrambling for the net, but it clawed it's way out. It was a racoon. I opened the screen door and went inside till it found it's way out. It was CRAZY! My cat is still pacing the patio looking for it!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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