November 2009 was warmest or 4th warmest on record, say NASA and NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on December 17, 2009

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2009 as the warmest November on record, beating the 2001 record by 0.02°C. NOAA classified the year-to-date period, January - November 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The November satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record according to the University of Alabama Huntsville data set, or fifth warmest, according to the RSS data set.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Warmest November on record for Southern Hemisphere land areas
Southern Hemisphere land areas had their warmest November on record including Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. November was 1.87°C (3.4°F) above average in Australia, and several statewide records were broken, with New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, surpassing the previous largest maximum temperature anomaly recorded for an Australian state. The highest minimum temperature record for the continent was also broken, with an anomaly of 1.61°C (2.90°F) above average.

Third warmest November on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average November temperature was 4.0°F above average, making it the 3rd warmest November in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. That's a pretty remarkable swing from October, which was the third coldest October on record. Delaware experienced its warmest November on record, Wisconsin and New Jersey their second warmest, and five states had their third warmest November (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, and North Dakota). Eighteen other states had an average temperature that ranked in the top ten. No states had below normal temperatures for the month.

Unusually low tornado activity in November
November was a quiet month for tornadoes in the U.S., with only 4 preliminary reports. November 2009 was the slowest November since 1980, which had 3 tornadoes, and tied for 3rd quietest since extensive records began in 1950. The autumn as a whole was also calm with only 80 tornadoes reported in the U.S., compared to the 2006-2008 year average of 164.

U.S. drought
At the end of November, 9% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the smallest November drought footprint since 2005. Drought expanded across Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, but improved over drought-stricken Texas. For the first time in many years, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona.

U.S. fire activity
November, like September and October, saw below-normal U.S. fire activity in all respects.

Strong El Niño conditions continue
Strong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on December 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño was roughly constant for the 5 weeks ending December 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor continued El Niño conditions lasting through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2010.

November sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
November 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2006 and 2007 saw lower arctic sea ice extent. During 10-day period in the first half of November, arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, but rose above record minimum levels by the middle of the month.

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".

Next post
I'll have another post late Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bordonaro:


Heaviest snows will be in western NC, west and central VA, DC, western MD, southeastern PA, and NJ. There are projections being tossed around by the computer models of up to 36" of snow NW of DC.

The latest 00Z runs are out. The NAM solution brings to L closer to the coast, bombing out at 976MB S of Nantucket Isl, RI. That solution brings heavy snow all the way into Southern New England, Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, DC.

The GFS solution places the 976 MB bomb about 100 mi or so off the E Coast, which would mean limited accumulations in NYC and Southern New England. However, heavy snow accumulations of up to 36" would affect western NC, west and central VA, DC, MD, DE, far SE PA, NJ.
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Good Morning
Looks like a tough two days along the East Coast!
From the Wilmington NC.. NWS

Forecast as of 6:11 am EST on December 18, 2009
South Santee River South Carolina out to 20 nautical miles... low pressure will move out of the northeast Gulf of Mexico... reaching Savannah this evening and then moving northeast... hugging the Carolina coast tonight. Low pressure will strengthen significantly through tonight and will become a major coastal storm as it moves through the coastal waters...producing dangerous wind and sea conditions. Low pressure will bomb as it moves up the mid-Atlantic coast and away from the area Saturday and Saturday night. Blustery conditions are expected early next week as high pressure builds into the region from the northwest.
Gale Warning in effect through Saturday afternoon
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Going to be a rough day.

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heads up, FLa west coasters and on over the state.

g'morning WU-bloggers.

thanks scu.
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Well should be an interesting day. I'm outside all day :( .. Hopefully it doesn't get too bad..
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EFFECTIVE: 5:20AM, DECEMBER 18, 2009

EXPIRES: 10:00PM, DECEMBER 19, 2009

...POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ON FRIDAY... .A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS TODAY. THE STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION POSSIBLY PRODUCING ADDITIONAL OVERWASH PROBLEMS IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE BUILDING SURF WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS SO RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SURF. AT THE CURRENT TIME TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD REVIEW EVACUATION PLANS...AND BE READY TO MOVE AT A MOMENT`S NOTICE...SHOULD ACTION BE REQUIRED. IN ADDITION THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...AND MARINERS...FISHERMEN...AND BOATING ENTHUSIASTS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
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Quoting watchingnva:


i agree with you completely 100%....its ridiculous how long they wait to give even an estimate...all main forecast show 100%chance of snow on sat....heavy at times, but fail to say how much....at all...and i think Wakefield is very cautious at the amount they are saying...bc of the major uncertainty in this area....a literal shift in track of 50-100 miles and the foot plus band that is forecast now to be over and near charlottsville....could shift toward richmond...



and can you answer this one for me on the map above....why is it that the ensemble clusters of points are consistently staying offshore, but they continue to have the forecast low position on the very western edge of the clusters hanging close to the coast?

im just a little confused on that one...i guess it isnt the same as it is for tracking canes...no center on the ensemble for tracking with winter storms i guess...

its gonna be a wait and see...models tomorrow afternoon should have it narrowed down...




Models want the low to run to a pool warm waters off the north-east but historically speaking these types of storms seem to get farther north than east from what the models forecast.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


With all this "modern technology", many big cities, like NWS Balt/DC, NWS Phila/Mt Holly, NWS NYC and NWS Boston have not put any accumulation amounts of any consequence. Gotta give it to NWS Wakefield, VA and NWS Blacksburg, VA for taking a stand and announcing accumulations.


i agree with you completely 100%....its ridiculous how long they wait to give even an estimate...all main forecast show 100%chance of snow on sat....heavy at times, but fail to say how much....at all...and i think Wakefield is very cautious at the amount they are saying...bc of the major uncertainty in this area....a literal shift in track of 50-100 miles and the foot plus band that is forecast now to be over and near charlottsville....could shift toward richmond...



and can you answer this one for me on the map above....why is it that the ensemble clusters of points are consistently staying offshore, but they continue to have the forecast low position on the very western edge of the clusters hanging close to the coast?

im just a little confused on that one...i guess it isnt the same as it is for tracking canes...no center on the ensemble for tracking with winter storms i guess...

its gonna be a wait and see...models tomorrow afternoon should have it narrowed down...
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Good Night/morning to all sleep tight! A BIG snowstorm will start FR night through SU :0)!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting watchingnva:
for my area..(Richmond,VA metro area)....if the low hugs the coast...4-8 inches...if it stays 50-100 miles offshore....8-12+....wont really have a 100% grasp until tomorrow night....either way 90% is in for it...its gonna be a messy Christmas week...


With all this "modern technology", many big cities, like NWS Balt/DC, NWS Phila/Mt Holly, NWS NYC and NWS Boston have not put any accumulation amounts of any consequence. Gotta give it to NWS Wakefield, VA and NWS Blacksburg, VA for taking a stand and announcing accumulations.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
590. Skyepony (Mod)
Rain totals in SFL

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for my area..(Richmond,VA metro area)....if the low hugs the coast...4-8 inches...if it stays 50-100 miles offshore....8-12 ....wont really have a 100% grasp until tomorrow night....either way 90% of the state is in for it...its gonna be a messy Christmas week...
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
how far inland are we looking of snow spreading. I have seen low pressures located over 100 miles off shore giving me over 1 ft of snow


Heaviest snows will be in western NC, west and central VA, DC, western MD, southeastern PA, and NJ. There are projections being tossed around by the computer models of up to 36" of snow NW of DC.

The latest 00Z runs are out. The NAM solution brings to L closer to the coast, bombing out at 976MB S of Nantucket Isl, RI. That solution brings heavy snow all the way into Southern New England, Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, DC.

The GFS solution places the 976 MB bomb about 100 mi or so off the E Coast, which would mean limited accumulations in NYC and Southern New England. However, heavy snow accumulations of up to 36" would affect western NC, west and central VA, DC, MD, DE, far SE PA, NJ.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Good night all heads up on the west coast of Fl. from ceder key to Ft. Myers.IMO
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how far inland are we looking of snow spreading. I have seen low pressures located over 100 miles off shore giving me over 1 ft of snow
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
what is the chances of this storm heading further west and impacting western NY
its a coast hugger the next one tue got a better chance for you and west of there
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Thank you bordonaro so lower pressure along the line but not necessarily a low pressure center. I'll buy it but I still like the GFS.hard headed I guess. Irish.
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583. xcool




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Quoting Jeff9641:
Very heavy thunderstorms forming near Key West and heading for the Penisula.


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what is the chances of this storm heading further west and impacting western NY
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wow


Local TV stations calling for 8+inches.
TWC calling for 5inches.
Retired Met from APP state calling for 6+inches.
NWS in Blacksburg calling for 12-16.

One thing they do agree on is putting a plus sign at the end of their projections and state heavy banding is possible.

Which one should I believe in?
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A TRUE CLASSIC NOREASTER.....perfect track for a monster snow storm for the NEastern US...LOOK OUT!


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577. amd
I'm out. those in Florida, stay safe. those in the mid-Atlantic, get ready
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Quoting gordydunnot:
I have to be honest if its not apparent, I am not a weatherman but what do those 2 dots with the 1006 just above the Yucatan mean.


Squall Line
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
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573. amd
Quoting gordydunnot:
I have to be honest if its not apparent, I am not a weatherman but what do those 2 dots with the 1006 just above the Yucatan mean.


a nasty squall line. A good way to view the line is with RGB imagery: RGB imagery

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SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
THU DEC 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N83W TO 1006 MB LOW
PRES AREA NEAR 27N92W WITH COLD FRONT TO 19N91W. LOW PRES TRACK
NE TO 30N87W AND INTENSIFY EARLY FRI THEN MOVE TO CAROLINA COAST
FRI NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS SE GULF THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER WEATERN AND CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FRESH BREEZE PERSISTING ELSEWHERE
THROUGH SAT AS REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVES INTO AREA. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM W TO E
ACROSS NORTHERN GULF. S RETURN FLOW INCREASE OVER FAR WESTERN
GULF LATE TUE AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER N TEXAS.

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I have to be honest if its not apparent, I am not a weatherman but what do those 2 dots with the 1006 just above the Yucatan mean.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Thanks everyone for quick and clear info without the hedging. I appreciate it.
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567. amd
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well I'll go with the Gfs estimate IMO. amd. On top off that, very low estimates for the Tenn.,N.C. mountains in my opinion only.


I agree with the second part of the statement, looks like the tenn and nc mountains get slighted on this run.

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Quoting gordydunnot:
563 is the Yucatan on that map.


No L in the BOC.

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
563 is the Yucatan on that map.
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Well I'll go with the Gfs estimate IMO. amd. On top off that, very low snow estimates for the Tenn.,N.C. mountains in my opinion only.
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Latest Surface map from NCEP
6PM CST 12-17-09

I see one L, not two.


Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Thanks St. Simons Guys. We've got 100% chance of rain here tomorrow. That almost never happens. The Special Weather Statement also said to make sure you've got batteries in your weather radio. And I can't remember when I've seen that before! I don't feel like losing power. I'd like to make things cozy by doing some baking tomorrow and am ready to call it quits from work for the holiday break.
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560. amd
Quoting gordydunnot:
Amd,I have been saying this since last night there are two lows that's why you can't forecast this system accurately.


actually from the graph that I just showed from HPC, it's pretty clear that there is ONLY ONE LOW. With all due respect, any other talk is just conjecture until I see actual evidence backed up by a legitimate source.
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Amd,I have been saying this since last night there are two lows that's why you can't forecast this system accurately.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113

goodnight!
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Quoting amd:


not a big fan of that run. For starters, the low was initialized wrong.

Actual Low Pressure location

GFS estimate for that same low


Oh, they blew that one out of the water! Inital L location about 100 MI to the NE..OOPS..
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
The rain is off the chain down here. I love it, hopefully no problems insurance cannot handle.
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553. amd
Quoting Bordonaro:
00Z GFS RUN is coming out, link below:

Link


not a big fan of that run. For starters, the low was initialized wrong.

Actual Low Pressure location

GFS estimate for that same low
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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