November 2009 was warmest or 4th warmest on record, say NASA and NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on December 17, 2009

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2009 as the warmest November on record, beating the 2001 record by 0.02°C. NOAA classified the year-to-date period, January - November 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The November satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record according to the University of Alabama Huntsville data set, or fifth warmest, according to the RSS data set.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Warmest November on record for Southern Hemisphere land areas
Southern Hemisphere land areas had their warmest November on record including Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. November was 1.87°C (3.4°F) above average in Australia, and several statewide records were broken, with New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, surpassing the previous largest maximum temperature anomaly recorded for an Australian state. The highest minimum temperature record for the continent was also broken, with an anomaly of 1.61°C (2.90°F) above average.

Third warmest November on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average November temperature was 4.0°F above average, making it the 3rd warmest November in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. That's a pretty remarkable swing from October, which was the third coldest October on record. Delaware experienced its warmest November on record, Wisconsin and New Jersey their second warmest, and five states had their third warmest November (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, and North Dakota). Eighteen other states had an average temperature that ranked in the top ten. No states had below normal temperatures for the month.

Unusually low tornado activity in November
November was a quiet month for tornadoes in the U.S., with only 4 preliminary reports. November 2009 was the slowest November since 1980, which had 3 tornadoes, and tied for 3rd quietest since extensive records began in 1950. The autumn as a whole was also calm with only 80 tornadoes reported in the U.S., compared to the 2006-2008 year average of 164.

U.S. drought
At the end of November, 9% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the smallest November drought footprint since 2005. Drought expanded across Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, but improved over drought-stricken Texas. For the first time in many years, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona.

U.S. fire activity
November, like September and October, saw below-normal U.S. fire activity in all respects.

Strong El Niño conditions continue
Strong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on December 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño was roughly constant for the 5 weeks ending December 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor continued El Niño conditions lasting through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2010.

November sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
November 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2006 and 2007 saw lower arctic sea ice extent. During 10-day period in the first half of November, arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, but rose above record minimum levels by the middle of the month.

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".

Next post
I'll have another post late Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MTWX:


IMO it's better to be over prepared instead of under prepared!!



Ounce of prevention worth a pound of cure and all that....
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
Quoting MTWX:


IMO it's better to be over prepared instead of under prepared!!


A nice balance of awareness and prudence is best.
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649. MTWX
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


It's the hype nowadays. They used to downplay storms back in the day. Now, they are front page news.


IMO it's better to be over prepared instead of under prepared!!
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Quoting Jedkins01:
The Low is deepening to where its expected, it just does not have the severe activity/ significant rain to bring to central Florida that was forecast, but this has been the usual in recent years for weather events to turn out less then I expected. Back in the day, they would always end up worse than I or the forecast expected. I miss the old days when we actually had strong storms regularly in central Florida haha. I mean we had a good summer season, but as of winter events not so much.


It's the hype nowadays. They used to downplay storms back in the day. Now, they are front page news.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



That depends on whether HurricaneJunkie, JFLorida and few others show up!!!


Your a funny guy Doug...LOL.

I appreciate your sense of humor.
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646. MTWX
Quoting StormW:
This has a lisitng of all the watches, warnings and hazards the NWS utilizes.

Long Duration Hazards Grid in the National Digital Forecast Database


Thanks StormW!! That list is very informative. I always wondered what prompts some of the advisories they post!!
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The Low is deepening to where its expected, it just does not have the severe activity/ significant rain to bring to central Florida that was forecast, but this has been the usual in recent years for weather events to turn out less then I expected. Back in the day, they would always end up worse than I or the forecast expected. I miss the old days when we actually had strong storms regularly in central Florida haha. I mean we had a good summer season, but as of winter events not so much.
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p451, thanks,, not hoping to be snowed in 4 2 days , just a little winter wonder, for a day,, its that way here in nc,, either or no
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Quoting presslord:
Hey! Someone smarter than me...which is a wide, deep demographic:

What is an "Areal Flood Warning/Watch"?

Huh? Still on 1st cup of coffee so not sure if you mean "area," "a real," or a part of a lady's anatomy, so I'll just play it straight:

Flood: Know Your Terms

Familiarize yourself with these terms to help identify a flood hazard:

Flood Watch:
Flooding is possible. Tune in to NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio, or television for information.

Flash Flood Watch:
Flash flooding is possible. Be prepared to move to higher ground; listen to NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio, or television for information.

Flood Warning:
Flooding is occurring or will occur soon; if advised to evacuate, do so immediately.

Flash Flood Warning:
A flash flood is occurring; seek higher ground on foot immediately.

ADD-ON: OK, it IS "areal"! Thanks StormW, etc.
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Quoting breald:
So guys, do I need to go and buy myself a shovel today in Southeastern Mass?



That depends on whether HurricaneJunkie, JFLorida and few others show up!!!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
I dont know about you, but it seems like another bust system in central Florida... South Florida looks to be in for some serious weather, but further north looks downright unimpressive.

I don't know why this is, but living in a "central" zone, systems always bring their impacts north or south of central. I cant remember the last time there was a weather even in Florida that was actually concentrated in central Florida, despite the fact they are often forecast like today. The most impressive weather always passes into northern Florida, or southern Florida. Almost never central...

Ive observed that in other "central" regions geographically as well. Its quite odd.

Overall though, this system is not turning out to be the exciting EL Nino Low I expected or was forecast... Seems like we never get the weather events in central Florida like we used to... Everything these days turns out to be a bust. I remember back when we would consistently get nasty gulf lows producing serious rain totals and severe events quite often. They seem hard to come by these days...
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What a lovely day in the neighborhood..43 degrees - windy and raining - with a windchill of 36!..Welcome to the "sunny and warm" Gulf Coast!......BUT, I could be in Groton, CT with my daughter where it is 3 degress with a wind chill of -3!..lol
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...y'all are da best...thank you very much...
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637. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Morning IKE. At midnite 48 here at 6am it was 62 now its 57 with wind gusting to 22 out of the North.


Front just made it through you....I'm up to 54.9 degrees and rising in DFS,FL....
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http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLWARRI2


My PWS
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
Its dropped 3 degrees in less than 5 mins.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
630. MTWX
Quoting MTWX:


The way I've always perceived it has been the same as a small stream/creek flood advisory. Kinda in between flash flooding and flooding. JMO


Actually here is how NBC Defines it...

However, the National Weather Service recently adopted the new term, which generally means the same as the more commonly used "Flood Watch" designation. Basically an Areal Flood Watch means there is potential for flooding over a large area. The word "areal" is the adjective version of the noun "area."

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Morning IKE. At midnite 48 here at 6am it was 62 now its 57 with wind gusting to 22 out of the North.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
627. amd
according to buoy reports, the low is just south of gulf shores, alabama with a pressure of roughly 1000 mb. It should be on the gulf coast shortly. IMO

Petit Bois Island, MS buoy

Orange Beach, AL buoy
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626. MTWX
Quoting presslord:
Hey! Someone smarter than me...which is a wide, deep demographic:

What is an "Areal Flood Warning/Watch"?


The way I've always perceived it has been the same as a small stream/creek flood advisory. Kinda in between flash flooding and flooding. JMO
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So guys, do I need to go and buy myself a shovel today in Southeastern Mass?
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WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 804...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-181800-
/O.CON.KMFL.TO.A.0804.000000T0000Z-091218T1800Z/

TORNADO WATCH 804 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH FLORIDA

BROWARD COLLIER GLADES
HENDRY MAINLAND MONROE MIAMI-DADE
PALM BEACH

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CLEWISTON...FLAMINGO...
FORT LAUDERDALE...LA BELLE...MIAMI...MOORE HAVEN...
NAPLES AND WEST PALM BEACH.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES IN AND
CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$
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Quoting IKE:
I've had the song stuck in my mind this morning....Link



Ike..LOL. I have had Father Christmas by the Kinks stuck in my head since last night.
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Hey! Someone smarter than me...which is a wide, deep demographic:

What is an "Areal Flood Warning/Watch"?
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Looking at satellite does it look like center of low is tracking further north more on a nne course instead of ene.
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just curious, i am about 15 miles from a winter storm warning,, does the mets really think it will stop at the county line?? under a lousy winter advisory for 1 inch of snow,, wow.
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612. IKE
Winds have shifted around in Mobile,AL....

Mobile Downtown, Alabama (Airport)
Updated: 15 min 50 sec ago
Heavy Rain
46 °F
Heavy Rain Mist
Windchill: 38 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 44 °F
Wind: 22 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 29 mph
Pressure: 29.70 in (Steady)
Visibility: 3.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 700 ft
Scattered Clouds 1800 ft
Overcast 2600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 23 ft



Where Pensacola is 13 degrees warmer.....

Pensacola, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 16 min 37 sec ago
Light Rain
59 °F
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 96%
Dew Point: 58 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.61 in (Falling)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 400 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 118 ft
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any one have an idea if the low will move a bit east?
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Ruskin, fl here, and stormy weather building in through the west. SPC and the NWS are currently discussing putting up a tornado watch for our area. We'll see what today brings. Should be a busy day at work today.
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609. IKE
I've had the song stuck in my mind this morning....Link
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608. IKE
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning, IKE


Good Friday morning.

Up to 53.2 at my house. Warm front may be moving through. It won't last long as the low is just to my west and the winds will shift around once it moves on east of me.
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Good Morning, IKE
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606. IKE
Knoxville,TN. in on the snow too....

"Saturday
Snow likely in the morning...then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds 10 mph or less. Chance of precipitation 60 percent."


Here in the Florida panhandle it's 52.7 degrees outside with rain falling.
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A better answer than Cap & Trade
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Good morning, looks fast and furious in Florida today.
IRLoopGOM
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What about the eastern panhandle of WV? We live against the eastern slope of the Alleghany Front, and sometimes have a rain/snow shadow effect from coastal storms.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Heaviest snows will be in western NC, west and central VA, DC, western MD, southeastern PA, and NJ. There are projections being tossed around by the computer models of up to 36" of snow NW of DC.

The latest 00Z runs are out. The NAM solution brings to L closer to the coast, bombing out at 976MB S of Nantucket Isl, RI. That solution brings heavy snow all the way into Southern New England, Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, DC.

The GFS solution places the 976 MB bomb about 100 mi or so off the E Coast, which would mean limited accumulations in NYC and Southern New England. However, heavy snow accumulations of up to 36" would affect western NC, west and central VA, DC, MD, DE, far SE PA, NJ.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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