November 2009 was warmest or 4th warmest on record, say NASA and NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on December 17, 2009

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2009 as the warmest November on record, beating the 2001 record by 0.02°C. NOAA classified the year-to-date period, January - November 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The November satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record according to the University of Alabama Huntsville data set, or fifth warmest, according to the RSS data set.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Warmest November on record for Southern Hemisphere land areas
Southern Hemisphere land areas had their warmest November on record including Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. November was 1.87°C (3.4°F) above average in Australia, and several statewide records were broken, with New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, surpassing the previous largest maximum temperature anomaly recorded for an Australian state. The highest minimum temperature record for the continent was also broken, with an anomaly of 1.61°C (2.90°F) above average.

Third warmest November on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average November temperature was 4.0°F above average, making it the 3rd warmest November in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. That's a pretty remarkable swing from October, which was the third coldest October on record. Delaware experienced its warmest November on record, Wisconsin and New Jersey their second warmest, and five states had their third warmest November (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, and North Dakota). Eighteen other states had an average temperature that ranked in the top ten. No states had below normal temperatures for the month.

Unusually low tornado activity in November
November was a quiet month for tornadoes in the U.S., with only 4 preliminary reports. November 2009 was the slowest November since 1980, which had 3 tornadoes, and tied for 3rd quietest since extensive records began in 1950. The autumn as a whole was also calm with only 80 tornadoes reported in the U.S., compared to the 2006-2008 year average of 164.

U.S. drought
At the end of November, 9% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the smallest November drought footprint since 2005. Drought expanded across Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, but improved over drought-stricken Texas. For the first time in many years, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona.

U.S. fire activity
November, like September and October, saw below-normal U.S. fire activity in all respects.

Strong El Niño conditions continue
Strong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on December 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño was roughly constant for the 5 weeks ending December 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor continued El Niño conditions lasting through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2010.

November sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
November 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2006 and 2007 saw lower arctic sea ice extent. During 10-day period in the first half of November, arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, but rose above record minimum levels by the middle of the month.

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".

Next post
I'll have another post late Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:
BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS LONG ISLAND. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A GLANCING BLOW WITH LESS SNOW AND LIGHTER WINDS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS.

&&

More Information
... POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE WEEKEND...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SATURDAY MORNING... THEN DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INTENSE LOW WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL... AS WELL AS A CORRIDOR OF HIGH WINDS. AT THIS TIME... THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A DIFFERENCE OF ONLY 100 MILES WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.



Good morning Grothar!
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Quoting ADCS:
All right, guys, I have a flight out of Philly on Sunday at noon. How long is that flight going to be delayed?


Started out as a joke, but this actually looks pretty useful :) There's also links to articles about ariline flight and weather delays.
When Flights Cancel due to Weather
Typical Airline Policies and a Few Tips for Flights Canceled due to Weather

By Arlene Fleming, About.com Guide

Link


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TWC said that 3 inches of snow has been reported in Ashville already
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Hello to all..Lurking here, my questions are usually answered before i can post...great blog here for sure...but today i have a question for PensacolaDoug...i see your weather station is in warrinton and i'm in myrtle grove{about 5 miles away as the crow flies}...i've checked your site and also trimm sat and can find no up to-date rainfall total for this 'weather event"...i've got a swiming pool full of water and that suprised me...it usually takes a while before i have to drop it down but was good before bedtime last pm...can you or anyone else give me a link to current rainfall data or storm total...now you see why i don't post much...i write too much info and it takes me forever to get to the question and one finger typing{sometimes 2} is my keyboard expertise...thanks ahead of time..by the way i want to thank all who post here for the great learning experience i've had from people on this blog!!!{throw out the occasional loon of course}...you all have made an impact whether you realize it or not as i'm sure other seniors and young people are lurking...keep up the great info...
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698. ADCS
Quoting P451:


I thought about that but it doesn't seem likely to play out like that. They're calling for 5-10 inches even NW of NYC now. Everything that goes from Maryland to NYC has to blast through me.

I think my local met ran out of coffee this AM and hasn't gone with the newer models that these other office now seem to be doing.

And the waiting begins for the next trustworthy update.


Then maybe it's just the increased kinetic and inertial energy of the northeast side of the system, similar to the "dirty" side of a hurricane. I don't doubt that we're going to get dumped upon, but that might be part of why wind speeds would be lowered.
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BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS LONG ISLAND. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A GLANCING BLOW WITH LESS SNOW AND LIGHTER WINDS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS.

&&

More Information
... POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE WEEKEND...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL TRACK TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SATURDAY MORNING... THEN DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INTENSE LOW WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOWFALL... AS WELL AS A CORRIDOR OF HIGH WINDS. AT THIS TIME... THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A DIFFERENCE OF ONLY 100 MILES WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
TORNADO WARNING
FLC086-181545-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0009.091218T1438Z-091218T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...HOMESTEAD MIAMI SPEEDWAY...
HOMESTEAD...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EST

* AT 938 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HOMESTEAD
MIAMI SPEEDWAY...MOVING NORTHWARD AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FLORIDA CITY...
HOMESTEAD MIAMI SPEEDWAY...
PRINCETON...
GOULDS...
CUTLER BAY...
CUTLER RIDGE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

I believe this is an AREAL warning:

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES...

AT 915 AM EST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOLLYWOOD... MOVING NORTHWARD AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

PEMBROKE PARK... HOLLYWOOD... INTERSECTION I-595 AND I-95... FORT LAUDERDALE... LAUDERDALE LAKES... OAKLAND PARK...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH... WHICH CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES... AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

ALSO... THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
This is fun and all but when is it gonna snow on the N central Gulf Coast? Prolly never sigh......
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
690. amd
here IMO, is the best forecast, and most likely solution for all those living in DC, PHL, NY, and up the east coast.

Matt Noyes NECN forecast for the big cities of the mid atlantic and northeast
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689. ADCS
Quoting P451:


Someone's off their rocker this AM. Blizzard for Long Island, NY... and a near Blizzard for Maryland and Virginia and parts of NC...

But somehow the storm is going to shut off as it moves through DE and NJ and then re-explode just as it reaches Long Island?

Yeah...continuity is lacking here between forecast offices. So Long Island says big storm, Maryland, VA, NC say big storm - but no big storm for DE/NJ even though this storm has to plow through these two states on it's way to LI?

Something not adding up. I guess I'll wait until this afternoons forecast updates.


I guess they figure the center of circulation's going to stay far enough off the DE/NJ coast to keep the wind speeds down, while still curving to hit LI straight on.
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688. ADCS
All right, guys, I have a flight out of Philly on Sunday at noon. How long is that flight going to be delayed?
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I may be going to Breckenridge in Feb. I could use the vacation as I didn't get to go last year.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
TORNADO WARNING
FLC021-181445-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0008.091218T1351Z-091218T1445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
851 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NAPLES AND PELICAN BAY...

* UNTIL 945 AM EST

* AT 850 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NAPLES...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE...
BETWEEN NAPLES AND PELICAN BAY...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
685. IKE
Front just went through....Crestview, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 23 min 13 sec ago
Heavy Rain
50 °F
Heavy Rain Mist
Windchill: 46 °F
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 50 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 29.61 in (Falling)
Visibility: 0.8 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 300 ft
Overcast 800 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 210 ft
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Glad we cleared that up! Just havin alittle fun here!


In a few weeks... I will be on permanent delete mode (week in Mexico. with free booze) then I get to come home with a new fresh, clean mind :)
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Nope.. married 30 years.. I will have a thought, then the wife will point out the errors of my ways (thinking for myself) and manually correct it.



Glad we cleared that up! Just havin alittle fun here!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
it might have been my mind..its been deleted before



"Better living thru chemistry" as they say....


Nope.. married 30 years.. I will have a thought, then the wife will point out the errors of my ways (thinking for myself) and manually correct it.
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680. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


OK, try this one Ike


LOL!
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it might have been my mind..its been deleted before



"Better living thru chemistry" as they say....
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
Hey Goosegirl-

I live in Frostburg, and work in Berkeley Springs... I think we'll get about 8-10 from this, but we'll see.
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Quoting IKE:


LOL....here....I'll throw in another one...:)


OK, try this one Ike
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676. IKE
Quoting Dakster:


Thanks Ike... Now I do too...


LOL....here....I'll throw in another one...:)
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Quoting Dakster:


Thanks Ike... Now I do too...


It could be worse..I put up that video "hide the decline" on my blog..and I had that stupid song stuck in my head for about two weeks..I eventually had to delete it. (the video, not my head, then again, it might have been my mind..its been deleted before)
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Gusty here now! Rains about to end. Thankfully.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
Quoting IKE:
I've had the song stuck in my mind this morning....Link


Thanks Ike... Now I do too...
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Science First: Video of submarine lava eruption

Link

Thu Dec 17, 8:09AM PT - AP 1:43

Lava erupting from the deepest underwater volcano ever discovered has been captured on video for the first time. The submarine volcano is located nearly 4,000 feet beneath the surface of the Pacific…
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Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 572
Good Morning..........In terms of Florida, that front is pushing through pretty quickly and looks likes the worst of the weather is in South Florida........Panhandle/Big Bend might be spared today from severe storms as I don't see any inkling yet of a frontal line anywhere along the Panhandle or Big Bend; that may change but all clear right now from Pensacola to Panama City.
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Would not be surprised to see SE Mass and the cape the island get 6 to 12 out this.
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Quoting MTWX:
Link

Severe Thunderstorm warning just north of Tampa. What gets me is it says this are is under a tornado watch also even though it is well north of the current watch area..



I don't even know why those cells have a warningI live in North Pinellas county, and I had the same cell move over me that has the warning in pasco, it had the same reflectivity over me, I don't know why they have a warning its just a heavy elevated shower haha

I also noticed that the NWS issues warnings during these events sometimes when they aren't needed. But then we have had many severe weather events in the summer that are far worse, and many times never get warnings, and never get forecast hype like these do. The storms during the summer wet season without warning are usually worse then these baroclinic squall lines even when I get all kinds of tornado/severe thunderstorms warnings.

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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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saw that this morning would think that i storm moves futher north it may include souteastern mass and cape
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665. MTWX
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I would not be suprized to see New York City included in the Blizzard Warning when it is issued

*sigh* I miss snow :.(
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Good evening all.
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Wait till January Jed, that's when the big boys get going, this is all pre-season stuff.


Yeah I know thats part of it, it just seems like any sort of weather event outside of the summer storm season falls apart...We always get plenty of serious weather in the summer wet season, just the other months have been no shows for a while.

But then again, we were in a La Nina phase for a while, which meant drought and hurricanes. Oh how I hat La Nina, its terrible for florida. Thank God we have El Nino for thirsty Florida thats just come out like 8 years of droughts
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I would not be suprized to see New York City included in the Blizzard Warning when it is issued
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Looks like there will be no severe weather in North Florida, we were the ones that had the greatest instability, but South of us has the watch.. Interesting..
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660. MTWX
Link

Severe Thunderstorm warning just north of Tampa. What gets me is it says this are is under a tornado watch also even though it is well north of the current watch area..
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Looks like December will be the coldest since 2000.
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Has anyone noticed the blizzard watch for long island?
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I'd really rather just sit here and read about what is going on out there. But got to get myself to work. So I guess I'll just see for myself. On days like this I really HATE my 40 mile commute to Tampa!!! I hope those lousy FL drivers are already at their desks!!
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


It's the hype nowadays. They used to downplay storms back in the day. Now, they are front page news.


yeah thats part of it, just seems none of these systems ever give the kick like we used to get. I remember having a lot of El Nino events with water coming up to my front step, getting 10 inches of rain over night, and losing power often from 75 mph gusts in squall lines. None of theses systems have come close to bring us weather like that yet. I mean its early in the season, but still...

This Low looks to be the most overhyped one yet, it doesn't even have a line of thunderstorms along the front, only a weakening area of warm frontal rain, accept south florida, they have some pretty impressive storms down there, but still warm front action. No sign of the well advertised power squall line whatsoever, all I see is a weak line of low topped showers along the cold front, more typical with a weak fall cold front.

The Low has also been stuck at 1005 mb since last night, it stopped deepening, definitely not the "rapidly deepening" system it was forecast to be as it is gonna soon move into Florida.
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of course here in southern new enlgand have to wait and see if it will pass south of the bench mark on closer to it will depend on where or not we get hit bad no one up here comimting to more than 6 inches cause they just dont know
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Quoting breald:
So guys, do I need to go and buy myself a shovel today in Southeastern Mass?

Guess you haven't lived there very long, hey? (j/k) That, and the Massachusetts State Car (have Subaru, will travel...)
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Wait till January Jed, that's when the big boys get going, this is all pre-season stuff.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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