November 2009 was warmest or 4th warmest on record, say NASA and NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on December 17, 2009

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2009 as the warmest November on record, beating the 2001 record by 0.02°C. NOAA classified the year-to-date period, January - November 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The November satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record according to the University of Alabama Huntsville data set, or fifth warmest, according to the RSS data set.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Warmest November on record for Southern Hemisphere land areas
Southern Hemisphere land areas had their warmest November on record including Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. November was 1.87°C (3.4°F) above average in Australia, and several statewide records were broken, with New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, surpassing the previous largest maximum temperature anomaly recorded for an Australian state. The highest minimum temperature record for the continent was also broken, with an anomaly of 1.61°C (2.90°F) above average.

Third warmest November on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average November temperature was 4.0°F above average, making it the 3rd warmest November in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. That's a pretty remarkable swing from October, which was the third coldest October on record. Delaware experienced its warmest November on record, Wisconsin and New Jersey their second warmest, and five states had their third warmest November (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, and North Dakota). Eighteen other states had an average temperature that ranked in the top ten. No states had below normal temperatures for the month.

Unusually low tornado activity in November
November was a quiet month for tornadoes in the U.S., with only 4 preliminary reports. November 2009 was the slowest November since 1980, which had 3 tornadoes, and tied for 3rd quietest since extensive records began in 1950. The autumn as a whole was also calm with only 80 tornadoes reported in the U.S., compared to the 2006-2008 year average of 164.

U.S. drought
At the end of November, 9% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the smallest November drought footprint since 2005. Drought expanded across Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, but improved over drought-stricken Texas. For the first time in many years, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona.

U.S. fire activity
November, like September and October, saw below-normal U.S. fire activity in all respects.

Strong El Niño conditions continue
Strong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on December 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño was roughly constant for the 5 weeks ending December 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor continued El Niño conditions lasting through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2010.

November sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
November 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2006 and 2007 saw lower arctic sea ice extent. During 10-day period in the first half of November, arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, but rose above record minimum levels by the middle of the month.

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".

Next post
I'll have another post late Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


Come on HJ, we all enjoy reading a good "comedy" now and then. Heard her sequel was going to be "On a Clear Day You Can See Siberia"


LOL! Isn't that the "inconvenient" truth?
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Quoting Floodman:


OMG, LMFAO...I hadn't thought of the word dolt in so long...you're right, there's her pic!


You saw it too? I'm glad I'm not the only one.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


The Grinch is hungry. You got the deep fryer ready! LOL


I love dat pic of the grinch,turkey again next week.

First,were grilling Cowboys in the Dome Sat. nite here.

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Quoting Grothar:
In Dr. Masters post on the title of Dr. Rood's last post titled "Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last?"

A cookie for anyone you knows who spoke that line first. Very important in our history. Now come on, no sneaking on Google!! Just interested to see who got it.


It's on the tip of my tongue (the older I get the farther away the tip of my tongue seems to be) - It was said to Sen. Joe McCarthy of the HUAAC, (here I ask my husband for help) - he says a well-known NY attorney defending a prominent General(?) being threatened by McCarthy. . .
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Who cares?


Come on HJ, we all enjoy reading a good "comedy" now and then. Heard her sequel was going to be "On a Clear Day You Can See Siberia"
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
Interesting floodman
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


No look up the definition of dolt. She'll be standing right there.


OMG, LMFAO...I hadn't thought of the word dolt in so long...you're right, there's her pic!
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93. auburn (Mod)
Quoting StormW:


She might be if she put on a swimsuit.


There is a pic of her in one on the web...better go google it...LOL
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Quoting weatherman874:


Correct me, but storms can form at any time of the year. The hurricane season is just the time when they are most likely to occur.


You are correct, but think about it like this: it takes nearly perfect conditions for a decent tropical system to develop during the peak season, so how rare would it be for a full blown TC to develop in the Atlantic basin during the off season?
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Quoting Patrap:
Whats a Sarah Palin?

..a Global Model?


No look up the definition of dolt. She'll be standing right there.
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I figured it something you catch "pats" in.
Nice pics btw. lol
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ooooooh-eeeeeee,..auburn.

That ones a doozy.

Just shy of Fla. though.

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Quoting Grothar:


Yes, go on! (Now you can tell us if you googled it or not? LOL


Did not google it, but I do remember it from a book I was reading just a few weeks ago. I can't remember who asked the question though.
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86. auburn (Mod)
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Sara Palin has already sold over a million of her book. Al Gore has sold 40,000 or so.


Who cares?
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Quoting CaneWarning:


It's from the McCarthy hearings isn't it?


Yes, go on! (Now you can tell us if you googled it or not? LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
Google "Patrap Images" ,its easy,..plus the checks help too.

..LOL
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Quoting Grothar:
In Dr. Masters post on the title of Dr. Rood's last post titled "Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last?"

A cookie for anyone you knows who spoke that line first. Very important in our history. Now come on, no sneaking on Google!! Just interested to see who got it.


It's from the McCarthy hearings isn't it?
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Quoting atmoaggie:
I like when the forecast discussion veers just a little away from all business.

From NOLA/BR WFO:

HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL DAYS THE FCST STARTS TO GET A LITTLE CLOUDY(NO PUN INTENDED)

HeHe.


Another example of comedy in forecasting:

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 AM THURSDAY...ONE THING THAT WE KNOW FOR SURE ABOUT FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IS THAT IT IS GOING TO PRECIPITATE ACROSS THE
AREA.

A little further down the discussion, which this makes it clear that the KGSP office has no clue what is gonna happen tomorrow.

IN CASE YOU ARE STILL READING...THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT OUR
CURRENT BEST/EDUCATED GUESS (THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING)
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Whats a Patrap?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
In Dr. Masters post on the title of Dr. Rood's last post titled "Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last?"

A cookie for anyone you knows who spoke that line first. Very important in our history. Now come on, no sneaking on Google!! Just interested to see who got it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
GOM 84 Hour Wave Forecast (using MIKE21)
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Sara Palin has already sold over a million of her book. Al Gore has sold 40,000 or so.


I bought 5 copies of her book myself, and I'm liberal. It makes a good gift for conservative friends, plus I thought I may as well read it too.
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Whats a Sarah Palin?

..a Global Model?
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GOM, NAM 84 Hour Wind Forecast
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We have a blob!!!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
Sara Palin has already sold over a million of her book. Al Gore has sold 40,000 or so.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
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Quoting Bordonaro:




haha yess exactly
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Quoting weatherman874:


True true..Pat, the jaws theme song plays as the rain heads for New Orleans again


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Our magic number of 26 C is 299 Kelvin, there have been some that maintain with less, but very few have built with less.

Loop current the only place supportive wrt to SST.
(Well into the orange colors is 299 K)

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Quoting weatherman874:


Correct me, but storms can form at any time of the year. The hurricane season is just the time when they are most likely to occur.


Cyclogenesis is occurring,..it occurred 3 times in the last week in the GOM.Thats why theres a flash Flood watch.

But its not tropical,..by any means.

Se. La. has had over 22.23 inches of rain for December,shattering the all time monthly record.

And its only the 17th.

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Quoting StormW:


True...however Pat is correct in stating that this is non-tropical. Doesn't mean it couldn't transition to sub-tropical, as Gulf waters in the region up to just past 25N are warm enough to sustain a sub-tropical system. Not counting on it though, as it seems it will move too quickly.


Yess yes i wasnt saying it was forming tropical. Just saying it is possible to have a storm out of actual hurricane season
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Historically, those odd, off-season storms are only in the tropics and/or waaaaay out in the Atlantic.

Shear and cooler water temps in the Gulf would not support anything warm core in the Gulf and has been that way since about Nov 1.


True true..Pat, the jaws theme song plays as the rain heads for New Orleans again
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Quoting Jeff9641:


I think you were on to something this morning when you said should this be named. That swirl is looking impressive.


I didn't say it should be named. I posted images from the GFS and NoGaps that showed it a shallow warm core cyclone in the NE Atl.

Shear is far too high to allow any tropical formation in the near term.
Quoting Jeff9641:
The GFS is putting the LOW much further south in the GOM and has it much deeper on Friday. Guys this one appears it wants to be a BOMB OUT.


That will make this storm a memorable one, indeed! The old saying is true, "be careful what you ask for, because you just might get it"!!
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Quoting weatherman874:


Correct me, but storms can form at any time of the year. The hurricane season is just the time when they are most likely to occur.

Historically, those odd, off-season storms are only in the tropics and/or waaaaay out in the Atlantic.

Shear and cooler water temps in the Gulf would not support anything warm core in the Gulf and has been that way since about Nov 1.
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Quoting Patrap:
The Low is non tropical..


Its Dec 17th...




Correct me, but storms can form at any time of the year. The hurricane season is just the time when they are most likely to occur.
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I like when the forecast discussion veers just a little away from all business.

From NOLA/BR WFO:

HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS TRAVEL DAYS THE FCST STARTS TO GET A LITTLE CLOUDY(NO PUN INTENDED) ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION AND ALL MDLS SUGGEST ANOTHER SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING BUT ALL ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT CHRISTMAS EVE AND ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AS FOR TEMPS DEPENDING AGAIN ON STRENGTH OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WE WILL EITHER BE JUST BELOW NORMAL OR WE COULD BE DOWN RIGHT COLD CHRISTMAS MORNING.

HeHe.
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Quoting NEwxguy:


Yeh,your right,that was cruel.

(I did have a little tongue-in-cheek, NE)
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Quoting unf97:


Exactly. That is what concerns me here in the Jax area.

I'm also intrigued on the later model runs if indeed the BOC Low becomes the more dominant entity, which appears to be happening right now.
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The Low is non tropical..


Its Dec 17th...


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.