November 2009 was warmest or 4th warmest on record, say NASA and NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:46 PM GMT on December 17, 2009

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The globe recorded its fourth warmest November since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated November 2009 as the warmest November on record, beating the 2001 record by 0.02°C. NOAA classified the year-to-date period, January - November 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The November satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest on record according to the University of Alabama Huntsville data set, or fifth warmest, according to the RSS data set.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Warmest November on record for Southern Hemisphere land areas
Southern Hemisphere land areas had their warmest November on record including Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. November was 1.87°C (3.4°F) above average in Australia, and several statewide records were broken, with New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania, surpassing the previous largest maximum temperature anomaly recorded for an Australian state. The highest minimum temperature record for the continent was also broken, with an anomaly of 1.61°C (2.90°F) above average.

Third warmest November on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average November temperature was 4.0°F above average, making it the 3rd warmest November in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. That's a pretty remarkable swing from October, which was the third coldest October on record. Delaware experienced its warmest November on record, Wisconsin and New Jersey their second warmest, and five states had their third warmest November (Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, and North Dakota). Eighteen other states had an average temperature that ranked in the top ten. No states had below normal temperatures for the month.

Unusually low tornado activity in November
November was a quiet month for tornadoes in the U.S., with only 4 preliminary reports. November 2009 was the slowest November since 1980, which had 3 tornadoes, and tied for 3rd quietest since extensive records began in 1950. The autumn as a whole was also calm with only 80 tornadoes reported in the U.S., compared to the 2006-2008 year average of 164.

U.S. drought
At the end of November, 9% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the smallest November drought footprint since 2005. Drought expanded across Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada, but improved over drought-stricken Texas. For the first time in many years, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas in the highest classification of drought--exceptional drought. The second highest category of drought, extreme drought, covers only a small region of northeast Arizona.

U.S. fire activity
November, like September and October, saw below-normal U.S. fire activity in all respects.

Strong El Niño conditions continue
Strong El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.6°C above average on December 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of El Niño was roughly constant for the 5 weeks ending December 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor continued El Niño conditions lasting through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2010.

November sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
November 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2006 and 2007 saw lower arctic sea ice extent. During 10-day period in the first half of November, arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, but rose above record minimum levels by the middle of the month.

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".

Next post
I'll have another post late Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Cat fight, how cute!!

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting NRAamy:




Cat fight!!!!!!!!!!


LOL! ROFL!! What in the heck is Arnie doing??
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Quoting Patrap:
2-4" is possible in areas already inundated, the all time monthly record was broken Tuesday here. 22.23" and with a lotta Dec left to come yet.



You guys are getting pounded there with the rain. Is there any flooding from this latest round?
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Quoting Patrap:
2-4" is possible in areas already inundated, the all time monthly record was broken Tuesday here. 22.23" and with a lotta Dec left to come yet.



The key is will that red blob hold together
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


No, they might be updating the graphic. The dominant low may actually be developing in the BOC, much further south, which may increase the severe threat for tomorrow.


I thought it looked like more than one low out there. Thanks for the update!
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Quoting usa777:
Ok who wants to be the crash dummie and give me some estimates on snow amounts in the Maryland area this weekend??


Check out this link! Allan Huffman is a meteorologist in Raleigh, NC, check out his blog, We all use "raleighrx" maps here, on ocassion on WU:

Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Patrap:
Please ,..lets keep the on the weather.

One can do a personal Blog on anything,..and have at it,..by ALL means.


Sorry for the diversion. Hopefully you have luck with the whole keeping on topic request. Last time I did that I got ganged up on. Remember?
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Cat fight!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


I find it interesting that we balanced a budget under Clinton but when we elect so-called Conservatives, we always deficit spend like drunken sailors (see George W. Bush, Reagan, Bush Sr. etc.) Conservatives NEVER govern conservatively, at least not fiscally. Where was all this deficit "outrage" during the last 8 years? At this point we have to target a certain number of areas to spend to prevent things from spinning out of control. It is a necessary evil, unfortunately. If we had the other candidate in office right now what would be doing that would have us in such great shape? Keep giving tax cuts to the wealthy? The rich-get-richer economy is NOT what's good for the majority of Americans. Trickle down economics have been proven time and again NOT to work but somehow we keep electing politicians who return us to it and the results keep getting worse and worse. I am not coming back at you on this I am just discussing the topic you put forth. I am not trying to offend or attack anyone, just stating my opinion based on past events.


I'll agree with Bush, but go look at the congressional votes and you tell me who spent. Some were, but most not. Overall, I agree with that criticism, though, in that they had the majority. Just don't stick to party line as much as the other side. With Clinton, that was Newt. A little thing called the contract with America. Only time I know of that pols actually did what they said when campaigning.

Hint: Only ones voting against had R's next to their names. Just not enough of them. More Dems voted on that spending than reps. All votes readily available at Thomas law library online. Knock yourself out. I think many would be surprised at the "republican" spending.

And, absolutely correct, there are republicans and there are conservatives.

Alright, I'm out before I get into too much trouble.

Have a nice day all.
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Quoting Patrap:
The severe threat will be tomorrow in Fla,..as per the Tampa NWS discussuion.


120
fxus62 ktbw 171835
afdtbw


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
135 PM EST Thursday Dec 17 2009


..strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Friday...




I was at that office yesterday, really nice building, even got to see them launch a weather ballon, have to say I never knew they used hydrogen in the ballons. Still cracks me up knowing that office is in the middle of no where.
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2-4" is possible in areas already inundated, the all time monthly record was broken Tuesday here. 22.23" and with a lotta Dec left to come yet.

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Quoting Seastep:


Have to correct the record on McCarthy. So many have been taught non-truths about it.

Agenda and smearing was done by those attacdking McCarthy and continues to this day. Clear by the posts here.

McCarthy was absolutely correct that the Soviets had infiltrated our government. He was also correct that the Communist Party, USA was, in fact, an arm of Soviet intelligence.

The KGB archives and the decoded intercepts prove it. Every single person on his list were....in fact... spies. As was anyone belonging to the Communist Party, USA. KGB archives show NKVD had 221 spies in the Roosevelt administration in 1941 and GRU had a similar number. It is a fact that everyone single person on his list was, in fact, a spy for the Soviets. And held some very sensitive positions too. Spies withing the Manhattan project, even. And convicted. The information is readily available.

Manhattan Project

VENONA

It was the left that destroyed McCarthy for refusing to be PC and calling it like he saw it. And he was right. Maybe his tactics were a little impulsive, but he was the one that was right. The falsehoods that, amazingly still exist today, were from those that attacked McCarthy. That would also apply to those that still do so.

Again, absolutely amazing that intelligent individuals continue to put forth a false reality. Sorry, it just boggles my mind how indoctrinated some people can be. Hey, in fairness, I know the schools taught it that way (including to me), so understandable. What is not understandable is continuing to hold on to a false view after the information vindicating McCarthy was discovered. VENONA only released in 1995 and I believe KGB Archives even later.

McCarthy was a hero. Identifying and eliminating enemy spies, especially within our govt, is a good thing, imo.

Who exactly smeared to advance an agenda at the end of the day? Historical record is clear to me.
Very interesting and of course also new to me. The point you make about what is being taught is also valid and something I believe is current because if you teach stupidity (public schools with text books advocated by gov't) you get a stupid populace who will vote based on sound bites and political drival called debates etc.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Is it safe to come back or is HJ still wiggin over Sarah?




LOL!
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Understood..but that time in History deserve's a much better forum than a weather blog.


I would hope.
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Quoting Patrap:
Please ,..lets keep the on the weather.

One can do a personal Blog on anything,..and have at it,..by ALL means.


I agree! How much rain is forecasted for the NOLA area during this "rain event"??
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Gotcha Patrap, but as many know, I can't stand falsehoods not being called out, leaving some readers with a false view.
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Please ,..lets keep the on the weather.

One can do a personal Blog on anything,..and have at it,..by ALL means.
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I guess that Pat's map shows the warm front that's bring the weather to S. Fl. today, although its hard to see how it could be hotter than it has been. I'm going to call it a moist front. I cann't recall to many approaching cold fronts that have brought weather in from the east so that's why this maybe a dozy this time.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
One can get a complete 5-day local forecast and the NWS discussion,by using the "Search" Box at the top of every Wu-page
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Quoting Grothar:
Not be off-topic but my mother forced me to watch the McCarthy hearings which were televised. I was quite young. At the time the only McCarthy I knew was Charley McCarthy! At first I couldn't understand what a puppet could have done that was so bad!!! It soon became clear. I guess at an early age, I learned that smearing people's reputation to further one's own agenda is not very nice. Guess we haven't come all that far as a people.


Have to correct the record on McCarthy. So many have been taught non-truths about it.

Agenda and smearing was done by those attacdking McCarthy and continues to this day. Clear by the posts here.

McCarthy was absolutely correct that the Soviets had infiltrated our government. He was also correct that the Communist Party, USA was, in fact, an arm of Soviet intelligence.

The KGB archives and the decoded intercepts prove it. Every single person on his list were....in fact... spies. As was anyone belonging to the Communist Party, USA. KGB archives show NKVD had 221 spies in the Roosevelt administration in 1941 and GRU had a similar number. It is a fact that everyone single person on his list was, in fact, a spy for the Soviets. And held some very sensitive positions too. Spies withing the Manhattan project, even. And convicted. The information is readily available.

Manhattan Project

VENONA

It was the left that destroyed McCarthy for refusing to be PC and calling it like he saw it. And he was right. Maybe his tactics were a little impulsive, but he was the one that was right. The falsehoods that, amazingly still exist today, were from those that attacked McCarthy. That would also apply to those that still do so.

Again, absolutely amazing that intelligent individuals continue to put forth a false reality. Sorry, it just boggles my mind how indoctrinated some people can be. Hey, in fairness, I know the schools taught it that way (including to me), so understandable. What is not understandable is continuing to hold on to a false view after the information vindicating McCarthy was discovered. VENONA only released in 1995 and I believe KGB Archives even later.

McCarthy was a hero. Identifying and eliminating enemy spies, especially within our govt, is a good thing, imo.

Who exactly smeared to advance an agenda at the end of the day? Historical record is clear to me.
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Is it safe to come back or is HJ still wiggin over Sarah?


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Man, it sure didn't seem that warm here in Minnesota. Compared to other Novembers in the past 5 years, this was pretty much a normal cold month for us. I don't understand it.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


The rain will continue to build my friend. We should see the rain get heavier as we move through the evening as the warm front moves north.


Rainy nights are great for sleeping and from the looks of this, it will start going down hill soon after dark.
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Wow, he put me on his ignore list for just telling him that he will be reported for being OFF TOPIC. Cry me a river, throw me a bone :)

Now.. How about that storm, I'm expecting some supercells to form in the sector of the warm front and cold front tomorrow morning for North/Central Florida, then in the afternoon, a squall line will form for Central/South Florida.
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Ok who wants to be the crash dummie and give me some estimates on snow amounts in the Maryland area this weekend??
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I completely agree I said last night and I hope it ain't so but Fl. may take a pounding. Hey where did Tampa Spin go did you'll finally drive over the edge. Interested to see his take on this system, noticed the doc been quiet on this one.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
plus 24hr surface "forecast" Map

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Not much going on yet, just some drizzling showers moving through central Florida.

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Quoting gordydunnot:
Isn't ironic I don't think Hitler ever had much more than 25% of the vote but was able to run Germany into the ground. Anyone see any parallels to today in the USA. Remember the bell curve when it comes to intelligence that will explain a lot.
Are we being run into the ground, Yes! Is it comparable to Hitler NO! As stated earlier, our politicians have very little interest in hearing us. They refuse to balance a budget. Think about this for a minute. If a household spends more than it takes in then it goes bankrupt/foreclosure. and yet our government rides up the debt always telling us it will get balanced. (the last time the the budget was not in a deficiet was when andrew Jackson was pres.) I wonder where we all will be when the piper comes to collect. History shows that the deficiet keeps growing and recently in exponential quotiants. I believe the failure is due to 3 little words in the beginning of the Dec of Independance "We The People" We have alllowed the machine to grow out of control while arguing over the drival of the polotician.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Is it moving a little slower than first thought?


No, they might be updating the graphic. The dominant low may actually be developing in the BOC, much further south, which may increase the severe threat for tomorrow.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


LOL! See, that's the type of response I can appreciate. Reed needs to lighten up. Good Lord!

=) I dunno maybe he's right. Our little debate has stirred up the blog quite a bit. That being said, we agreed to drop it so let's. About the wolf hunting via helo ... meh I dunno I never thought it was such a huge deal .. ( and a darker side of me wishes they sold tickets on ebay ) But yeah, I could see some political issues and maybe it wasn't the greatest idea. I still think both sides of the aisle blew this out of proportion " she's protecting the rights of the citizens to bare arms!" (hardly)"she's single handedly eliminating the entire wolf population!" (hardly)
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Quoting Jeff9641:


You should see a new advisory come out at 3 or 4pm. The threat is the same but I wouldn't be surprised if they upgrade us from a slight risk to moderate risk tomorrow. The warm front should be over SW FL now so you could get some hefty storms popping soon.


Sweet! We need the rain desperately.
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Back to weather,as this system in the GOM gets its act together,this could create alot of severe weather across Florida,better keep an eye on this.
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Most of the action will be Friday / Friday night.


Is it moving a little slower than first thought?
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Quoting tornadodude:


she told me that she thinks it was for an image : /


Oh, I know which one I bet.
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Quoting hydrus:
Middle, on the western edge of the Cumberland Plateau.


well you look to be getting a rain/snow mix and the small chances of snow from sunday on out.

I'll bbl guys, play nice (:
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Weather Channel Desktop was flashing yellow with a special weather statement about severe weather potential here overnight tonight into Friday but it's gone today. I'm wondering if the low is going to move more northward now than originally forecast.


Most of the action will be Friday / Friday night.
Quoting tornadodude:


what part?
Middle, on the western edge of the Cumberland Plateau.
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



Slight, so far. Same as the past couple days?


Weather Channel Desktop was flashing yellow with a special weather statement about severe weather potential here overnight tonight into Friday but it's gone today. I'm wondering if the low is going to move more northward now than originally forecast.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Numerous thunderstorms breaking out in SE FL. Looks like these storms will continue to build and move NW toward Central and North Florida tonight.


Hey Jeff, how's it going today? Thanks for the update. I see what you're talking about on the radar. They seem to be awfully slow moving though. Maybe we'll see some here in Ft. Myers.
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and as soon as I mention D.C.

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
148 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ028-031-042-
052>054-WVZ050>053-503-504-180300-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0008.091219T0500Z-091220T1100Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-
FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...
WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...
LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...EMORYVILLE...
HARTMANSVILLE...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY
148 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* PRECIP TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...HEAVY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 5
INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH THE EVENT.

* WINDS...10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH THE EVENT...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Any thoughts on the severe weather outlook for Southwest Florida? I am no longer seeing the advisory I saw yesterday.



Slight, so far. Same as the past couple days?
Quoting hydrus:
Will Tennessee get some of that?


what part?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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