Why Southeast Greenland's glaciers have slown down since 2005

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:57 PM GMT on December 15, 2009

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I'm in San Francisco for the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union, the world's largest gathering of climate scientists. I saw ten or so great talks yesterday (and five really boring ones!) Here's a summary of the the most interesting talk I heard yesterday:

If you plan on owning ocean front property after the year 2050, you should pay close attention to the glaciers In Greenland. Greenland holds enough ice to raise global sea level by over 20 feet (6.5 meters), should its ice cap completely disintegrate--though such an event would likely take centuries to occur. Still, should the climate warm 2°C or more this century, partial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet could readily raise global sea level by a meter or more by 2100. That's why scientists reacted with concern during 2003 - 2005, when all of the glaciers in southeastern Greenland accelerated in synchrony to speeds 30% to 210% faster than they had flowed in 1996. As they sped up, the glaciers began dumping huge amounts of ice into the ocean off the coast of southeast Greenland, more than doubling Greenland's contribution to global sea rise, to .57 mm/year. Would the glaciers keep accelerating, bringing about an increasing disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet? Nobody knew, since computer models of glacial dynamics were (and still are) in a primitive state.


Figure 1. Helheim Glacier in southeast Greenland, in three images captured in 2004, 2005, and 2006. The glacier accelerated significantly in 2005, and the face of the glacier retreated 5 km inland (middle frame) compared to 2004. However, by the summer of 2006, the acceleration ceased, the the glacier returned back to its 2004 position. Image credit: Ian Howat, University of Washington.

Well, it turned out that 2005 was the peak of the glacial acceleration event. The glaciers in southeast Greenland have returned to where they were eight or nine years ago--still causing a net loss of mass that is raising global sea level, but not as fast as in 2003 - 2005. In a talk titled, "Ocean regulation of glacier dynamics in south-east Greenland and implication for ice sheet mass changes", Tavi Murray and colleagues from the UK's Swansea University presented a plausible theory for why this strange synchronous speed-up and slow-down occurred. Using satellite, aircraft, and surface observations, the researchers found that air temperatures in the region did not vary much over 2003 - 2005 (Figure 2). Thus, a major increase in temperature could be ruled out as the cause of the glacier surge. However, study of the ocean temperatures near the coast revealed strong clues that ocean currents were responsible for the surge.

Figure 2. Ocean currents off the east coast of Greenland feature the cold East Greenland Coastal Current flowing north to south (white arrows) and the warm Irminger Current flowing south to north (red arrows). Image credit: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.

Ordinarily, the southeast coast of Greenland features a cold water current flowing north to south, called the East Greenland Coastal Current (EGCC). Much of the cold water for this current is supplied by melting of the 14 glaciers in southeast Greenland that empty into the sea (two of these glaciers, Kangerdlugssuaq and Helheim, represent 35% of east Greenland's total glacial discharge). A few hundred kilometers offshore, a warm water current called the Irminger Current flows the opposite direction, bringing warm water from the North Atlantic northward. In 2003, it happened that weather conditions over Greenland brought an unusually low amount of run-off of precipitation. With little new mass pushing the glaciers seaward, the glaciers responded by greatly reducing the amount of ice they dumped into the ocean by the shore. As a result, the East Greenland Coastal Current slowed down and warmed, which allowed the warm Irminger Current to advance towards the coast, warming the coastal waters even more. All that warm water near the coast began melting the glaciers where they reached the sea, causing the glaciers all along the southeast coast of Greenland to accelerate and rapidly thin between 2003 - 2005. By 2006, the thinning glaciers had dumped so much new ice into the ocean near the coast that the waters cooled and the East Greenland Coastal Current re-established itself. This cooled the glaciers at their marine termination points and slowed down the glacial surge, putting the glaciers back where they had been before 2003. This is a classic example of a negative feedback process--a change in weather conditions which generates a response, but the response creates conditions that tend to dampen the response.


Figure 3. Average temperatures for the only station in southeast Greenland with a century-long temperature record, Angmagssalik (called Ammassalik on the map in Figure 2). Temperatures in southeast Greenland during the 1930s and 1940s were similar to today's temperatures, suggesting that glacial surges like we witnessed in 2005 may have also occurred in the 1930s and 1940s, before we had monitoring capability. Image credit: NASA Goddard.

Commentary
As I commented in my previous post, Arctic sea ice loss appears to have created a new atmospheric circulation pattern that brings more warm air in the Arctic, creating a positive feedback loop that causes even more sea ice loss. This positive feedback loop was a bad news surprise that our climate models did not predict. Now we have evidence of a good news surprise that no model predicted--a negative feedback loop that acts to keep the southeast portion of Greenland's Ice Sheet from runaway glacial acceleration. We can expect many more surprises--good and bad--over the coming decades, as our climate responds to the huge shove human activities are giving it.

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".

Next post
I'll have another post from the AGU meeting Thursday or Friday this week.

Jeff Masters

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663. PensacolaDoug
1:51 PM GMT on December 16, 2009
From JB.

Heh, it's snowing in Copenhagen... and in merry olde England How bout that?



The "Gore Effect" strikes again!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
662. IKE
1:49 PM GMT on December 16, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:

NoGaps shows it making a run at tropical as well.

Maybe Dr Masters will discuss it today.
I'd like to hear his take on it.



Next post
I'll have another post from the AGU meeting Thursday or Friday this week.

Jeff Masters
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
661. biff4ugo
1:48 PM GMT on December 16, 2009
I interpret a pollutant to be too much of anything (produced by man particularly)that harms the environment. To me that means methane from farms or carbon monoxide from cars.


I loved the US farmers promising to cut methane emissions by 25% in Copenhaven by using "poop-power"(my words). That is capturing manure produced methane for energy production.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1543
660. PensacolaDoug
1:47 PM GMT on December 16, 2009

NoGaps shows it making a run at tropical as well.

Maybe Dr Masters will discuss it today.
I'd like to hear his take on it.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
659. TheCaneWhisperer
1:44 PM GMT on December 16, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Wow TCW!

CMC = Creating More Cyclone
CMC = Craves more Crack
Theres a few more but I dont remember 'em at the moment.


NoGaps shows it making a run at tropical as well.
658. PensacolaDoug
1:42 PM GMT on December 16, 2009
I would like to see this pattern deliver snow to the Gulf Coast at some point.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
657. Drakoen
1:41 PM GMT on December 16, 2009
Seems as though the models have backed away from the coastal storm for now.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
656. AussieStorm
1:40 PM GMT on December 16, 2009


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 43
Issued at 9:00 pm WST on Wednesday, 16 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Beagle Bay,
including Derby and adjacent inland parts.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for areas from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga including
Broome, and extending inland towards Fitzroy Crossing.

At 8:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 3 was estimated to be
60 kilometres southeast of Cockatoo Island and
100 kilometres north northeast of Derby and
moving south southwest at 8 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence has crossed the Kimberley coast southeast of
Cockatoo Island being a small but very intense tropical cyclone and having VERY
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 220 kilometres per hour close to the cyclone
centre. VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts are occurring on the Kimberley coast east of
Cockatoo Island. Laurence is expected to weaken as it moves inland overnight.

GALES and DESTRUCTIVE winds are likely to extend further inland overnight.
Should the centre pass close by DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible in Derby during
Thursday morning.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north and west Kimberley. Daily
rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible near the coast with totals
decreasing further inland.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near the communities of Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island
and Derby need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near the communities of Cape Leveque, One Arm Point,
Djarindjin and Lombadina should be taking action.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near Mitchell Plateau and Kuri Bay are
advised that the wind danger has passed but you need to take care to avoid the
dangers caused by any damage.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.5 degrees South 124.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 957 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST [midnight] Thursday 17
December.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
655. PensacolaDoug
1:38 PM GMT on December 16, 2009
Wow TCW!

CMC = Creating More Cyclone
CMC = Craves more Crack
Theres a few more but I dont remember 'em at the moment.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
654. PensacolaDoug
1:36 PM GMT on December 16, 2009
I'm thru with you.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
653. TheCaneWhisperer
1:36 PM GMT on December 16, 2009
NoGaps?

652. TheCaneWhisperer
1:33 PM GMT on December 16, 2009
Has the CMC lost it? lol. Shows a full blown monster tropical cyclone, hurricane even.


651. bonovoix
1:31 PM GMT on December 16, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Dr Grays position is well-known.
Look it up yourself. THis thread started with me stating that a "nuclear" explosion in the trialer for Big Al's movie could be considered "fear-mongering".
No one has denied it yet only attacked me for questioning it.



What studies has he done to support his stand? He is just the mouth piece of the deniers.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Certainly not. But what does that have to do with this? I dont consider carbon dioxide an environmental polutant.


So you are saying that the increase in human activity has nothing to do with greenhouse gases? Would you also say that prior to the industrialism revolution smog was an issue for humans?

My point? What do you think happens to these pollutants when they are released into our atmosphere? Also, if humans cannot breath the air we have, isn't the air a pollutant? Isn't that what pollution is?
Dr Grays position is well-known.
Look it up yourself. THis thread started with me stating that a "nuclear" explosion in the trialer for Big Al's movie could be considered "fear-mongering".
No one has denied it yet only attacked me for questioning it.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
Quoting bonovoix:



Let me ask you a question. Are the environmental pollutions that fills our air supply good for us?



Certainly not. But what does that have to do with this? I dont consider carbon dioxide an environmental pollutant.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
Negative Feedback from Greenland glaciers is GREAT news. Ordinarily I don't like weather data from 1 station for indications of trend but that is a nice long record.
The two things I can't figure out is, how do glaciers in the southeast provide most of the water for a current that starts in the north?
If the temperature in Greenland is steady, why were people seeing pools riddling the top of the ice sheet? Is that a cyclical event now too?
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1543

599. Bordonaro 5:53 AM GMT on December 16, 2009

Hey, do you remember Kukla, Fran and Ollie??

I grew up in Chicago (won't say when) but definitely remember KFO and Bert (was it Lindstrom?)
and what about The Breakfast Club? Great radio drama for kids on Sat. mornings - obviously predating Sat. morning TV cartoons.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
WIlliam Gray is the "denial" side.



And what exactly has he published that makes him take this denial stand? Nothing. He has not published one study to back up his opinion.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'm not denying GW exists, only how much of it is man-made.



Let me ask you a question. Are the environmental pollutions that fills our air supply good for us?
WIlliam Gray is the "denial" side.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
I'm not denying GW exists, only how much of it is man-made.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
Here is an interesting bit of climate-related info:

Mammoths Were Alive More Recently Than Thought*
http://www.livescience.com/animals/091215-mammoth-extinction.html

*Please note that, referring to this headline, the comment has already been made about thought already having been dead quite awhile.

or for a slightly briefer version:

Visit Livescience -- http://www.livescience.com

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Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
To think that some people will not believe that man is causing global warming because Al Gore is the spoke person for the cause is ridiculous.

98% of the scientist in the world have come to the same conclusion. Man is causing the environmental disaster we are facing.

I wonder how many of the "nonbelievers" whom you listen to have actually sacrificed years of their lives, living in harsh conditions and still does not believe in GW? Probably not many. If any. Yeap, a 78 year old fossil like William Gray who hasn't left the comfort of his cozy Colorado office knows more about this than someone who has actually been in the element and conducted actual experiments. I don't think so.
638. IKE
Rioting at a climate conference.:(

Wife...Hey honey...how did your day go?
Husband...Fine baby...I rioted at a climate conference and got pepper sprayed.
Wife...I wish I could have been there with you honey!
..........................................


Does pepper spray contribute to Global Warming?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
All you folks wanting snow - This is from a Canadian friend who is in Edmonton. She arrived the day it hit -46*C:

Yep - they shut the airport down just after my plane got in on Saturday night because it was too cold for the ground crews to work. But Lois and I have gotten out for a good walk every morning in spite of the cold. Today should feel downright balmy -- we're going up to -23.

What about those Canadians - pretty tough, eh? Will we be up to their standards?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
636. IKE
Climate talks deadlocked as clashes erupt outside

By CHARLES J. HANLEY
AP Special Correspondent


Squabbling Louder As Climate Conference Nears Climax


COPENHAGEN (AP) -- Danish police fired pepper spray and beat protesters with batons outside the U.N. climate conference on Wednesday, as disputes inside left major issues unresolved just two days before world leaders hope to sign a historic agreement to fight global warming.

With the talks so clearly deadlocked, Connie Hedegaard, former Danish climate minister, resigned from the conference presidency to allow her boss, Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen to preside as world leaders from 115 nations streamed into Copenhagen. She was to continue overseeing the closed-door negotiations.

Hundreds of protesters were trying to disrupt the 193-nation conference, the latest action in days of demonstrations to demand "climate justice" - firm action to combat global warming. Police said 230 protesters were detained.

Inside the cavernous Bella Center convention hall, negotiators dealing with core issues debated until just before dawn without setting new goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions or for financing poorer countries' efforts to cope with coming climate change, key elements of any deal.

"I regret to report we have been unable to reach agreement," John Ashe of Antigua, chairman of one negotiating group, reported to the full 193-nation conference later Wednesday morning.

In those overnight talks, the American delegation apparently objected to a proposed text it felt might bind the United States prematurely to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, before the U.S. Congress acts on the required legislation. U.S. envoys insisted, for example, on replacing the word "shall" with the conditional "should."

Hundreds of protesters marched on the suburban Bella Center, where lines of Danish riot police waited in protective cordons. Some demonstrators said they wanted to take over the global conference and turn it into a "people's assembly," and as they approached police lines they were hit with pepper spray.

Television pictures showed a man being pushed from the roof of a police van and struck with a baton by an officer.

After nine days of largely unproductive talks, the lower-level delegates were wrapping up the first phase of the two-week conference and handing off the disputes to environment ministers in a critical second phase.

The lack of progress disheartened many, including small island states threatened by the rising seas of global warming.

"We are extremely disappointed," Ian Fry of the tiny Pacific nation of Tuvalu declared on the conference floor. "I have the feeling of dread we are on the Titanic and sinking fast. It's time to launch the lifeboats."

Others were far from abandoning ship. "Obviously there are things we are concerned about, but that is what we have to discuss," Sergio Barbosa Serra, Brazil's climate ambassador, told The Associated Press. "I would like to think we can get a deal, a good and fair deal."

"A lot of things are in play," said a longtime observer, Fred Krupp of the U.S. Environmental Defense Fund. "This is the normal rhythm of international negotiations."

Governments had weeks ago given up hope of concluding a finished treaty at Copenhagen, as once envisioned, and aimed instead at establishing a framework, through decisions here, for negotiating more formal agreements next year.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting jpritch:


An Inconvenient Truth
Directed by:
Davis Guggenheim
Produced by:
Lawrence Bender .... producer
Scott Z. Burns .... producer
Lesley Chilcott .... co-producer
Lesley Chilcott .... line producer
Davis Guggenheim.... executive producer
Jeffrey D. Ivers.... executive producer
Laurie Lennard .... producer
Jeff Skoll .... executive producer
Ricky Strauss .... executive producer
Diane Weyermann .... executive producer
Editing:
Lash Cassidy, Dan Swietlik

Al Gore did not direct, produce, or edit the movie. It was not his choice what got included or hit the cutting room floor, nor did he have any say in the trailer. (Trailers are made mostly based on what advertising execs think will get people to go see the film.) Gore also did not win an academy award for his contribution - that went to the director.

If you have an issue with something Al Gore actually has said or done, fine. Making arguments about him based on what other people are responsible for is a fail.


Lets see.
He goes around the world promotingg his agenda thru HIS movie, wins all kinds of awards including a Nobel Peace Prize for it, and yet doesn't have to take any of the responisibilty for errors of content or sensationalism. I notice you don't deny that it is fear-mongering, only that its not Big Al's fault. Why should I ever consider anything you post legitimate?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
634. IKE
Quoting Catfish57:
Is there a way to search for your comments? This JFlorida guy made an outlandish response to me a couple weeks ago concerning "New" research techniques. I would like to find it and share with everyone a few times.


I don't know of a way to do that on this website without going back and looking at each blog and scrolling through the comments.


Quoting SQUAWK:
U.N. climate conference President Connie Hedegaard resigns


Doah!! Methinks there is something rotten in Denmark.


Wonder why she resigned?


Quoting GrtLksQuest:
Can any of you folks explain this to me?

Jupiter, Florida
Edit My Favorites - Add to My Email - iCal Feed RSS Feed
Local Time: 6:52 AM EST (GMT -05) — Set My Timezone Lat/Lon: 26.9° N 80.1° W (Google Map)
Tropical Weather: Tropical Cyclone Laurence (South Indian Ocean)
Current Conditions

Pennock Ln., Jupiter, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 7 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
-38.8 °F
Scattered Clouds
Windchill: -39 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: -40 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.10 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0.0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1600 ft
Scattered Clouds 7000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Rapid Fire Updates:
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Obviously a PWS that needs adjusting...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
U.N. climate conference President Connie Hedegaard resigns


Doah!! Methinks there is something rotten in Denmark.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is there a way to search for your comments? This JFlorida guy made an outlandish response to me a couple weeks ago concerning "New" research techniques. I would like to find it and share with everyone a few times.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can any of you folks explain this to me?

Jupiter, Florida
Edit My Favorites - Add to My Email - iCal Feed RSS Feed
Local Time: 6:52 AM EST (GMT -05) — Set My Timezone Lat/Lon: 26.9° N 80.1° W (Google Map)
Tropical Weather: Tropical Cyclone Laurence (South Indian Ocean)
Current Conditions

Pennock Ln., Jupiter, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 7 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
-38.8 °F
Scattered Clouds
Windchill: -39 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: -40 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.10 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0.0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1600 ft
Scattered Clouds 7000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Rapid Fire Updates:
Enable Disable
Source for Current Conditions:
PWS & Airport Airport Only

» Weather History for This Location

Radar Webcam
Local Radar
Click Radar to Enlarge
Local Radar Local Radar
Local Radar High Def Radar new!
WunderMap
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630. IKE
If you plan on owning ocean front property after the year 2050, you should pay close attention to the glaciers In Greenland. Greenland holds enough ice to raise global sea level by over 20 feet (6.5 meters), should its ice cap completely disintegrate--though such an event would likely take centuries to occur. Still, should the climate warm 2%uFFFDC or more this century, partial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet could readily raise global sea level by a meter or more by 2100.

....from Dr.Masters

............................................

I'm not trying to be a smart ass when I say this...ninety-eight pct. of us humans on planet Earth now, will be dead by 2100.

How many people on the planet are paying close attention to glaciers in Iceland? The only thing I'm paying close attention to is the balance in my checking account and my bills each month.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
He comes out with all guns blazing!
You don't disappoint JF. Regardless of whether GW is A or not, having a "nuke" explosion in a trailer is over-the-top. It can only be there for the "shock factor" and as it has no bearing on the scientific argument, it meets the definition of "fear-mongering. If you can't unbiasedly recognize something as obvious as that, why should I even consider
anything you post, legitimate?


An Inconvenient Truth
Directed by:
Davis Guggenheim
Produced by:
Lawrence Bender .... producer
Scott Z. Burns .... producer
Lesley Chilcott .... co-producer
Lesley Chilcott .... line producer
Davis Guggenheim.... executive producer
Jeffrey D. Ivers.... executive producer
Laurie Lennard .... producer
Jeff Skoll .... executive producer
Ricky Strauss .... executive producer
Diane Weyermann .... executive producer
Editing:
Lash Cassidy, Dan Swietlik

Al Gore did not direct, produce, or edit the movie. It was not his choice what got included or hit the cutting room floor, nor did he have any say in the trailer. (Trailers are made mostly based on what advertising execs think will get people to go see the film.) Gore also did not win an academy award for his contribution - that went to the director.

If you have an issue with something Al Gore actually has said or done, fine. Making arguments about him based on what other people are responsible for is a fail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
628. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
This is the song that never ends.. yes it goes on and on my friends.

Some people started singing it not knowing what it was and they continued singing it forever just because..

This is the song that never ends..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
627. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 41
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE, CAT 4 (01U)
3:00 pm AWST December 16 2009
==========================================

At 2:00 pm WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 4 (945 hPa) located at 16.1S 124.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The severe cyclone was estimated to be 50 kilometres east of Cockatoo Island and 145 kilometres north northeast of Derby and moving south southwest at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/6.0/W0.5/ 6HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but very intense tropical cyclone having VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 260 kilometres per hour close to the cyclone centre. VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts are occurring on the Kimberley coast east of Cockatoo Island as the system approaches the coast. Laurence is expected to weaken overnight as it moves slowly in a generally southerly direction towards Derby.

GALES and DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are likely to extend inland overnight. Should the centre pass close by DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible in Derby as early as overnight or during Thursday morning.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north and west Kimberley. Daily rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible near the coast with totals decreasing further inland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Beagle Bay and adjacent inland parts.

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga and extending inland towards Fitzroy Crossing.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.9S 124.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.4S 124.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.3S 122.9E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 18.4S 120.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
=======================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small and very intense system. The Dvorak signature has weakened although enhancment of IR and VIS imagery shows a pin-prick eye feature is still discernible. A DT of 5.0 was obtained on recent images with a W surround and a -1.0 Eadj. FT is kept at 6.0. Qualitative observations from Koolan Island [less than 50 km to the west of the system centre] confirm that it retains a very small core, with winds there estimated to be only gale force.

It is expected to amke landfall in the next 2-4 hours and shoudl then weaken and slow down as it contineus to move in a southerly direction.

A more westerly track is possible during Friday and in the longer term the system may move offshore and redevelop, after which the stationary mid-level trough to the west should encourage landfall again.
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Good night everyone!! Echo, echo, echo!!

Be back little later in the morning :O)!!
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Quoting Skyepony:
I may still be mourning quikscat but ran across this. Fairly related to Master's well wrote entry. In 2005 Quikscat found a large melt & refreeze occurring in Antarctica in ways thought impossible before~ too high, way inland. NASA article



Nice find ! Interesting read ....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
He comes out with all guns blazing!
You don't disappoint JF. Regardless of whether GW is A or not, having a "nuke" explosion in a trailer is over-the-top. It can only be there for the "shock factor" and as it has no bearing on the scientific argument, it meets the definition of "fear-mongering. If you can't unbiasedly recognize something as obvious as that, why should I even consider
anything you post, legitimate?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
Well all, I'm off to bed.. :P have a goodnight everyone!

Maybe one of these days when I get some Urge I will post a picture of me with it (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting btwntx08:

wow!!!


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Quoting Bordonaro:


336HRS GFS 12-30-09: 10M wind, 2M temps**LATEST RUN HERE'S YOUR SNOWSTORM!!!





impressive!!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


those ice storms bring me snow :)


336HRS GFS 12-30-09: 10M wind, 2M temps**LATEST RUN HERE'S YOUR SNOWSTORM!!!



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Quoting Bordonaro:
300HR Forecast 12-28-09, GFS Model 10M wind, 2 M temps**
N TX is going to have an ice/snowstorm!!!!




those ice storms bring me snow :)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
300HR Forecast 12-28-09, GFS Model 10M wind, 2 M temps**
N TX is going to have an ice/snowstorm!!!!


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.