Bill Gray's 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast and views on global warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:27 PM GMT on December 10, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

A return to the pattern of above-average Atlantic hurricane activity we've seen since 1995 is on tap for 2010, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued today by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). In a departure from their usual forecasts, the Klotzbach/Gray team is issuing a range of numbers for storms, instead of forecasting a specific number. They are calling for 11 - 16 named storms, 6 - 8 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast calls for a near-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is also forecast to have an average risk of a major hurricane.

The forecasters cited several reasons for an above-average season:

1) "Warm sea surface temperatures are likely to continue being present in the tropical and North Atlantic during 2010, due to the fact that we are in a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (e.g., a strong phase of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation)".

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. The CSU team notes that while we are currently experiencing moderate to strong El Niño conditions, it is very rare for an El Niño to last through two consecutive hurricane seasons: "Seven out of the last thirty-five years in an active era (20%) were classified as warm ENSO events. None of the past seven events had El Niño conditions persist through the second year, and every event except for 1951-1952 had an increase in tropical cyclone activity during the second year. It should be noted that an active era and the absence of El Niño does not guarantee an active season, as both 1952 and 2007 experienced near-average net tropical cyclone activity."

How accurate are the December forecasts?
The CSU real-time December forecasts have not shown any skill over the period 1992 - 2007, so we should view the latest forecast as an experimental research product. In 2008, CSU junked the old December scheme and came up with a new one. This year's December forecast uses the same formula as last year's December forecast, which over-forecasted the 2009 hurricane season. That forecast called for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and we actually had 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. However, the new scheme will need to run for 5+ years before we can get an idea of whether or not it has any skill.


Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in November. The longest range forecasts for July-August-September (JAS) at the right side of the image show that most of these models are predicting an end to El Niño by then. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when the average sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America rises above 0.5°C (top red line). Image credit: Columbia University.

2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Monday. They are also calling for an active year: 13.9 named storms, 7.4 hurricanes, and 3.4 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 62% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 24% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 14% chance of a below normal season.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 5% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 8% skill for hurricanes, and 14% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.

Bill Gray on global warming
I received this comment yesterday in my blog:
There is a problem with reality. It is reminiscent of a sci-fi story where half the people see one thing, and the other half see just the opposite. But there is only one truth, and an incorrect decision could lead to disastrous consequences. Who should we believe? The captain, who we've long admired and have great respect; or the first officer to whom we owe our lives? They are both good people, but only one of them is correct. The other has been misled. Post #639 presented by TomJonesAL of Dr. Bill Gray's scathing condemnation of the majority of the worlds scientific community's assessment of the current and projected trends of Global Warming can only give further pause to the average citizen who relies on common sense and the integrity of their leaders for an informed and accurate opinion. Dr. Gray is highly respected, but so too are the many members of the opposite train of thought, including Dr. Masters. So whom do we believe?

Climate science is an incredibly complex subject, and the science is too complicated for all but an expert to fully grasp. Complicating the issue is the fact that there is a large amount of natural variation, and we are now just beginning to to see a human-caused effect (or so many scientists are telling us). Clearly, we have to rely on scientists to figure out the problem and advise us on what is happening. But which scientist to trust? Obviously, one should not trust scientists receiving money from the fossil fuel industry--or the wind power industry, for that matter--since these scientists might have a vested interest in a particular view. You are also hearing statements from sources like the Wall Street Journal and Dr. Bill Gray that we can't trust climate scientists because they are "vested interest scientists wanting larger federal grants and publicity", as Dr. Gray puts it. So, if you reject those scientists as sources of information, you are left with non-climate scientists that you trust. I will try to give you some relevant background on Bill Gray and myself, so that you can come up with your own answer for which of us is more likely to have the correct answer.


Figure 2. Dr. Bill Gray at the podium of the 2006 American Meteorological Society hurricane conference in Monterey, California.

Bill Gray
Bill Gray has been an outspoken critic of the the science showing human-caused global warming, and of many of the scientists involved. His December 8, 2009 post on climatedepot.org is a typical example of his views. Dr. Gray is one of the greatest experts on hurricanes, and has published hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific papers on the subject. He has not published any papers on climate change. His expertise is primarily data-based observational science and forecasts using statistical models; he does no theory and highly distrusts all climate science done using General Circulation Models (GCMs). He has been a rabble-rouser at professional conferences I have attended, insulting colleagues and interrupting their talks. At one conference I was at, he chided a fellow researcher about his use of computer models to do climate research, saying, "I didn't know you as a religious person. That's a belief". Gray himself has not done research using the type of computer forecast models he is critical of. His primary career goals: "I am now giving more of my efforts to the global warming issue and in synthesizing my projects' many years of hurricane and typhoon studies". He has no ties to the fossil fuel industry, and told the audience at one talk I was at that he votes Democratic. You can find many profiles on Dr. Gray through a simple Google search on the term, "Bill Gray global warming", or by visiting his Wikipedia page.

Jeff Masters
Like Bill Gray, I have not published any papers on climate science. As I have spent most of my career developing Wunderground.com, I have published just five peer-reviewed scientific papers, and none since I got my Ph.D. My research has been on air pollution, and on airborne wind and pressure measurement in hurricanes. I did seven years of computer modeling during my air pollution science career. I used and modified the code of models that did 7-day weather forecasts, and of air pollution models that incorporated the full chemistry, solar radiation, and meteorology of the atmosphere. I do not have any experience using the General Circulation Models (GCMs) that were used to formulate the IPCC climate reports, though many of the components of the models I worked with are incorporated into GCMs. My modeling experience has led me to believe that the models used to formulate the IPCC report are valid scientific tools that are sufficiently accurate to give us a general idea of where our climate is headed. I belong to one environmental group, the Nature Conservancy. Politically, I do not label myself a Democrat or Republican, because I believe that both parties are fundamentally corrupted by the money large corporations give to them. I see an urgent need for campaign finance reform and limits on lobbying in order to restore the democracy our Founding Fathers envisioned. My primary career goal is to gain as deep an understanding of the atmosphere as possible and communicate that knowledge to those interested. I am looking forward to serving in that role for many more years--the next decade will be an extremely interesting one, and we should have a pretty definitive answer as to who is right by the end of the decade.

Next post
I'll have a new post Friday, there's a lot going on.

Jeff Masters

Here We Are (eanj1952)
The snowdrift on our main street's sidewalk nearly hides these little girls and it's not winter yet.
Here We Are
Gateway to Winter Fun (incogkneetoe)
Gateway to Winter Fun

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 563 - 513

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

563. SapientHetero
4:04 PM GMT on December 14, 2009
Regardless of political beliefs, we should all be able to agree that the actions of members of "The Team", whose members are responsible for the three temperature datasets that are the basis for anthropogenic global warming theory, have been decidely unscientific. These people have refused to share data and analysis methods, conspired to block publication of opposing points of view and allegedly violated FOIA laws in both the US and UK. Even the most dedicated Greenie must pause to wonder why honest scientists might behave in this manner.

Clearly, any climate work based on the data manipulated by these fraudsters is highly suspect, regardless of the integrity of the individual(s) relying upon it.

Now there is a global consensus that Anthropogenic Global Warming is a hoax concocted by dishonest "scientists", socialist politicians, third world governments and green industries who stand to benefit financially. Unlike the AGW "consensus", this one is backed by fully disclosed data and arguments and backed by real scientists.
562. hydrus
6:23 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting DanM6:

Research and Development. You're a plasmoid? (For everyone else here , plasmoid is the nickname for plasma physicist...which is the group that does fusion). I started grad. school as a plasmoid and switched to high energy after my first year...which cost me no time, really, because I was a teaching, not a research assistant my first year.

The joke back then was that commercial fusion reactors are 30 years in the future, whether you ask the question in the '50s or the '70s. We're now at the end of the '00s and it still seems to be the case. If you have info on sucessfully solving the instability problems and the material damage problem, I'd love to hear it. I've been loosely keeping track of the field, and haven't seen much in the way of big advancements.

It's like my plasmoid buddies told me....folks wanted the engineering done _right now_ before the science was done.
I will definitely get back to you about the fusion reactors. I am having trouble with my computer.lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21183
561. Lurky
4:24 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting Dr. Masters:
I see an urgent need for campaign finance reform and limits on lobbying in order to restore the democracy our Founding Fathers envisioned.


Dr. Masters,
Just wondering if you have ever considered congressional term limits (e.g. three 2yr terms for HR and two 6yr terms for the Senate)? I don't think the Founding Fathers envisioned 'career' politicians whose main focus is getting re-elected time after time (and building relationships with lobbyists in the process) instead of serving the best interests of the American people.

Rock on Dr. Masters, PensDoug, AIM, Patrap, 451, Hurrjunky, and all the other regulars - thanks - I really enjoy the blog. Merry Christmas! (oops! sorry! Can't say C-h-r-i-s-t-m-a-s). Happy Holidays!
(I'll go back to lurking now.)
560. RTLSNK
3:59 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20938
559. Buhdog
3:59 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
9 days till i trek from the bottom of FL to Ohio for xmas....please keep those snowy good vibe our way! The kids (11,6) are just dying to see and play in snow for the first time. You could not ask for a prettier day in swfl

70 RIGHT NOW AND SUNNY!
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
558. AwakeInMaryland
3:58 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
I will post this more than once, I'm sure! This campus is great, and it's FREE training & housing -- if you do the proper paperwork, which isn't that difficult, promise! I went once, and I'm not even a first responder; just a volunteer. I got my county CERT Captain to sign off. I did pay for my own meal ticket since I didn't want to charge it to my county or CERT group.

Fire Academy/EMI training links & forms

Open Slots in USFA training

Since the landmark document America Burning: The Report of the National Commission on Fire Prevention and Control in 1974 the National Fire Academy (NFA) has been committed to meeting the training needs of our nation’s fire service. It is estimated, since 1975, over 1,400,000 students have received training through the variety of course offered at the NFA through numerous delivery educational methods. There can be no doubt, the American public has greatly benefited from the training and education programs provided by USFA and NFA. Countless lives have been saved and property losses prevented as a direct result of this training and education.

Through its many courses and programs, the National Fire Academy (NFA) continue its efforts to enhance the ability of fire and emergency medical services and allied professionals to deal more effectively with fire and related emergencies. Courses are delivered at the residential facility in Emmitsburg, Maryland, and throughout the nation in cooperation with state and local fire training organizations and local colleges and universities.

The application period for the second semester of National Fire Academy resident classes is currently open, and will close December 15. All the necessary information about the 2010 courses, applications and suggestions for successful completion of the application can be found at the following sites:

Course Catalog and schedules:

* www.usfa.dhs.gov/nfa/catalog/index.shtm

To Download Applications

* FEMA Form 75-5 | Form Fillable (PDF, 352 Kb)
* FEMA Form 75-5 | Form Non-Fillable (PDF, 116 Kb)

Tips to completing your application:

* Eight Tips for Completing a Successful NFA Application

More information:

* training.fema.gov/EMICourses/ - EMI Course Page
* www.fema.gov/emergency/index.shtm - Emergency Managers and Personnel page

Download Plug-in

Some of the links on this page require a plug-in to view them. Links to the plug-ins are available below.

Click Here to Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Adobe Acrobat (PDF)

Last Modified: Friday, 11-Dec-2009 07:37:43 EST

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
557. hurricanejunky
3:57 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
TYCON Power Systems Model TP1080WC


Cool. I haven't heard of them but I'm sure it's a good unit if Brian gave it to you.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
556. hurricanejunky
3:49 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Hmmm, I'm not sure about this, because we've had our "fake" tree for 20-25 years...real Christmas trees sure smell nicer.

Real Christmas Trees 'Greener' than Fake
Andrea Thompson, Senior Writer
LiveScience.com, Thu Dec 10

It may not sound like "tree-hugging," but cutting down a real tree for Christmas is actually greener than going with the artificial kind, one scientist says.

"It is a little counterintuitive to people," said Clint Springer, a biologist at Saint Joseph's University in Philadelphia.

Because of concerns over deforestation around the world, many people naturally worry that buying a real tree might contribute to that problem, Springer says. But most Christmas trees for sale these days are grown not in the forest but on tree farms, for the express purpose of being cut.

Moreover, from a greenhouse gas perspective, real trees are "the obvious choice," Springer told LiveScience.

Live trees actively photosynthesize as they grow from saplings, which removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. After they have been cut and Christmas is over, they're usually chipped for mulch. As mulch, the bits of tree very slowly decompose, releasing carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere. So in the end, a real Christmas tree is carbon neutral, putting the same amount of carbon dioxide back into the air as it took out (albeit much more slowly).

The tree farms that grew the trees also replant after the trees are cut.

Artificial trees, on the other hand, don't come out even in the carbon balance. Petroleum is used to make the plastics in the trees and lots of carbon dioxide-creating energy is required to make and transport them.

Because these trees just end up in landfills after a few years' use, "those greenhouse gases are lost forever," Springer said. "There's really no opportunity to recycle those."

Springer said he suspects that artificial trees have become more popular in recent years because they are more convenient.

Adding to incentives to "go real," this Christmas may also be economic concerns, as most artificial trees are produced in China, while real trees tend to be grown on local farms, Springer said.


Very interesting and informing post. May have to go back to real trees!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
555. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:48 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SEVEN
CYCLONIC STORM WARD (BOB05-2009)
14:30 PM IST December 11 2009
==============================================

Subject: Cyclonic storm over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal:

Cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast: Yellow Message

At 9:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved further northwards and intensified into a cyclonic storm. Cyclonic Storm Ward lays centered at 8.5N 84.5E, or about 300 kms east-northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 550 kms southeast of Nagapattinam, and 700 kms south-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast during the next 48 hours.

Satellite imagery indicates further organization of convection around system center. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5 RPT T2.5 system shows curved band pattern. Intense to very intense convection over are between 5.0 to 15.0N and 81.0 to 90.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -75C. The out going longwave radiation at 0900z is about 100 W/M2 in association with the system.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the system's center.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate (10-20 knots). The system lies close to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 10.0N. Sea surface temperature are also favorable for intnsification as it is 28-30C over the region. The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence are favorable for intensification.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
9 HRS: 9.0N 84.0E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
15 HRS: 9.5N 83.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 10.5N 82.0E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
57 HRS: 11.0N 80.0E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45295
554. PensacolaDoug
3:47 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 563
553. PensacolaDoug
3:45 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
TYCON Power Systems Model TP1080WC
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 563
552. AwakeInMaryland
3:45 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
541. Orcasystems 3:02 PM GMT on December 11, 2009

Quoting mikatnight:
Well, time for me to go make some money. You folks have all bean wonderful. I'll check in later on today...

PS - For you northerners (which is just about everybody), two very attractive females just zipped past my place - one on roller-blades, the other biking - wearing nothing more than a bikini top and some spandex...ah, life is good.

Someone should be shot for that remark


I think the expression is "I'm Married...Not Dead!"

If Dr. Jeff makes us wait any more for a new blog, I might actually have to get something done this morning.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
551. hurricanejunky
3:44 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting mikatnight:
Cool. His posts are never boring.


Absolutely right. He's anything but boring!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
550. hurricane23
3:43 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
(Meso Low) just of the southeast coast should move into parts of dade county in a few hrs.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13786
549. hurricanejunky
3:43 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Love Steely Dan.


Me too! Saw them and Michael McDonald together at the Ford Amphitheatre in Tampa back in 2006. AWESOME SHOW!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
548. hurricanejunky
3:42 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I dont trust the pressure reading tho. Compare it to the Pensacola NAS report. They never agree and I'm only about a mile or so from their Weather obs tower.


What brand and model is it?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
547. AwakeInMaryland
3:37 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
For those of you who asked about Floodman, I went to Mrs. Flood's blog (LongStrangeTrip).
Besides the following entry, she said he still can't sit up for too long yet. Keep getting better, Flood!

19. LongStrangeTrip 4:04 PM GMT on December 10, 2009

Hello, all!

Flood and I are doing fine. He has a tendency to overdo one day, then has to rest a lot the next. I'm trying to get him to strike a balance, but he's a mite stubborn. :)

I've been busy with kids, grandkid, getting ready for Christmas...all the fun stuff.

Hope everyone is well. It's bitterly cold here - well, by Texas standards - with a windchill of 15 degrees this morning. Yikes!!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
545. AussieStorm
3:20 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting mikatnight:
Yeah, I heard it was roughly the size of Manhattan. Supposed to melt before it gets to you though, isn’t it (Aussiestorm)?

I would greatly doubt it will make it to Australian waters
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
543. Orcasystems
3:03 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting RTLSNK:
Warning - Moosemilk may be hazardous to your health.
After just two large glasses you may say things like this:

HEY HONEY, WATCH THIS


I thought the proper expression was "Hey y'all watch this"
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
542. atmoaggie
3:03 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting DanM6:

Research and Development. You're a plasmoid? (For everyone else here , plasmoid is the nickname for plasma physicist...which is the group that does fusion). I started grad. school as a plasmoid and switched to high energy after my first year...which cost me no time, really, because I was a teaching, not a research assistant my first year.

The joke back then was that commercial fusion reactors are 30 years in the future, whether you ask the question in the '50s or the '70s. We're now at the end of the '00s and it still seems to be the case. If you have info on sucessfully solving the instability problems and the material damage problem, I'd love to hear it. I've been loosely keeping track of the field, and haven't seen much in the way of big advancements.

It's like my plasmoid buddies told me....folks wanted the engineering done _right now_ before the science was done.

So, Dan, with your expertise, you could go visit Fermi, blast a bit of Beethoven's hair and tell us if he had lead poisoning?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
541. Orcasystems
3:02 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting mikatnight:
Well, time for me to go make some money. You folks have all bean wonderful. I'll check in later on today...

PS - For you northerners (which is just about everybody), two very attractive females just zipped past my place - one on roller-blades, the other biking - wearing nothing more than a bikini top and some spandex...ah, life is good.


Someone should be shot for that remark
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
540. RTLSNK
3:01 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Warning - Moosemilk may be hazardous to your health.
After just two large glasses you may say things like this:

HEY HONEY, WATCH THIS
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20938
539. mikatnight
3:00 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Well, time for me to go make some money. You folks have all bean wonderful. I'll check in later on today...

PS - For you northerners (which is just about everybody), two very attractive females just zipped past my place - one on roller-blades, the other biking - wearing nothing more than a bikini top and some spandex...ah, life is good.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
538. pearlandaggie
3:00 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Global Warming US Cities Getting Warmer
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
537. pearlandaggie
2:56 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
LOL @ 519. as you said before...tongue deeply buried in cheek :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
536. AwakeInMaryland
2:54 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
An iceberg the size of Manhattan (thanks for translating that from Australian, Mik-)... beware of Vikings calling it Greenberg.

There's actually a lot of news & tidbits this morning for it being a non-tropical time of year.

You can find the full AP story for this online:

From "The Starting Point":

Top story overnight: EU leaders pledged to commit $3.6 billion to help poor countries combat global warming, The Associated Press reported. Britain, France and Germany will each contribute about 20 percent with the other 24 member nations providing the remainder of the donation. The money is expected to help struggling nations build coastal protection, modify crops threatened by drought, build water supplies and irrigation systems, preserve forests, improve health care and adopt more low-carbon energy systems.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
535. mikatnight
2:45 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Yeah, I heard it was roughly the size of Manhattan. Supposed to melt before it gets to you though, isn’t it (Aussiestorm)?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
534. TampaSpin
2:45 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
516. Never mind, I'm staying. Thanks, Tim...a guy who's got the cujones to put Celine Dion in...hmmm, it's a trick to get the chicks, right? (Sorry ladies, I believe he's married...ed. -- NOT like Mr. Woods married, I hope)!!
Quoting mikatnight:
Thanks Tampa (#516), good job. Told you Celine Dion had it going on with Christmas songs. Was never a huge fan of hers, but boy does she know how to belt out a Carol...


You all are great....Thanks....if you can think of something to ADD let me know....zap me an email and i will add it for us all to enjoy!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
533. AussieStorm
2:34 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Australia shipping alert over massive iceberg
Fri Dec 11, 2:34 am ET

Link

Excerpt:

SYDNEY (AFP) – Australian authorities Friday issued a shipping alert over a gigantic iceberg that is gradually approaching the country's southwest coast.

The Bureau of Meteorology said the once-in-a-century cliff of ice, which dislodged from Antarctica about a decade ago before drifting north, was being monitored using satellites.


Superberg B17B heading our way



A GIGANTIC white reminder of the climatic forces at work in the Antarctic is looming south of Australia.

At 50 billion tonnes, iceberg B17B is more than just another superberg carved off an Antarctic ice shelf.

Its size coincides with the just-discovered net loss of ice from the world's largest frozen water mass, the East Antarctic ice sheet.

The 140-square-kilometre superberg made a rare turn away from Antarctic currents this year to float towards Western Australia.

It was pictured by satellite this week surrounded by smaller broken-off bergs about 1700 kilometres south of the coast.

Australian Antarctic Division glaciologist Neal Young has tracked B17B since it broke off the Ross Ice Shelf in 2000.

He said this break-off was part of natural forces at work on the shelf, which was afloat and being fed by glacial ice from behind.

But elsewhere in Antarctica, on its peninsula, seven ice shelves have broken up in 20 years, releasing countless icebergs. Dr Young said increasing temperatures were linked to the break-ups.

Ice shelves are already afloat and their melt does not increase global sea level. But they act as buttresses for land-bound Antarctic ice behind, and the net loss of this ice is said to be raising sea level.

Long a particular concern, the West Antarctic ice sheet is losing ice at a rate of about 132 billion tonnes a year, University of Texas scientist Jianli Chen confirmed in a study published in the British journal Nature Geoscience.

More surprising was Dr Chen's finding, for the first time, that the East Antarctic ice sheet had lost ice around its coastline at the rate of about 57 billion tonnes for each of the past three years - or about the size B17B is now.

Global ice losses are contributing about 1.8 millimetres a year to sea level, but Dr Chen concluded that Antarctica may contribute more.

B17B first drifted westward from the Ross Sea in a coastal current before heading north near Prydz Bay, off the Australian Antarctic Territory.

Dr Young said icebergs would normally track east in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. B17B was pushed north instead, and was continuing to drift north-east at a rate of less than a knot (1.8 km/h).

He said there appeared to be no scientific records of icebergs being seen from Australia.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
532. AwakeInMaryland
2:33 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:

so you mix it all together and serve?


It looks like a large enough batch to serve over the iceberg and make a snow cone (or slushie, as hot as parts of Australia have been)!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
531. DanM6
2:30 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting hydrus:
Point understood. I am working on a fusion reactor. They will be all over the place before you know it.jk...What is R&D?

Research and Development. You're a plasmoid? (For everyone else here , plasmoid is the nickname for plasma physicist...which is the group that does fusion). I started grad. school as a plasmoid and switched to high energy after my first year...which cost me no time, really, because I was a teaching, not a research assistant my first year.

The joke back then was that commercial fusion reactors are 30 years in the future, whether you ask the question in the '50s or the '70s. We're now at the end of the '00s and it still seems to be the case. If you have info on sucessfully solving the instability problems and the material damage problem, I'd love to hear it. I've been loosely keeping track of the field, and haven't seen much in the way of big advancements.

It's like my plasmoid buddies told me....folks wanted the engineering done _right now_ before the science was done.
Member Since: December 7, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
530. AwakeInMaryland
2:30 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Hmmm, I'm not sure about this, because we've had our "fake" tree for 20-25 years...real Christmas trees sure smell nicer.

Real Christmas Trees 'Greener' than Fake
Andrea Thompson, Senior Writer
LiveScience.com, Thu Dec 10

It may not sound like "tree-hugging," but cutting down a real tree for Christmas is actually greener than going with the artificial kind, one scientist says.

"It is a little counterintuitive to people," said Clint Springer, a biologist at Saint Joseph's University in Philadelphia.

Because of concerns over deforestation around the world, many people naturally worry that buying a real tree might contribute to that problem, Springer says. But most Christmas trees for sale these days are grown not in the forest but on tree farms, for the express purpose of being cut.

Moreover, from a greenhouse gas perspective, real trees are "the obvious choice," Springer told LiveScience.

Live trees actively photosynthesize as they grow from saplings, which removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. After they have been cut and Christmas is over, they're usually chipped for mulch. As mulch, the bits of tree very slowly decompose, releasing carbon dioxide back into the atmosphere. So in the end, a real Christmas tree is carbon neutral, putting the same amount of carbon dioxide back into the air as it took out (albeit much more slowly).

The tree farms that grew the trees also replant after the trees are cut.

Artificial trees, on the other hand, don't come out even in the carbon balance. Petroleum is used to make the plastics in the trees and lots of carbon dioxide-creating energy is required to make and transport them.

Because these trees just end up in landfills after a few years' use, "those greenhouse gases are lost forever," Springer said. "There's really no opportunity to recycle those."

Springer said he suspects that artificial trees have become more popular in recent years because they are more convenient.

Adding to incentives to "go real," this Christmas may also be economic concerns, as most artificial trees are produced in China, while real trees tend to be grown on local farms, Springer said.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
529. Orcasystems
2:28 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:

so you mix it all together and serve?


Yup... word of warning....
Its dangerous as sin... you can sit there and have 4 or 5 without even trying (tastes like a milkshake)... and your toast when you stand up

PS.. you can skip the nutmeg :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
528. AussieStorm
2:24 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


This is the only way Vanilla ice Cream should be used as a cure.. just watch out the cure doesn't kill you :)

The Canadian military has a long history of serving a beverage known as "Moosemilk" annually on New Years Day at a function hosted by the Junior Ranks Mess, Senior NCO's Mess and the Officers Mess. Each mess basically hosts an open house or invites guests by special invitation to the "New Years Levee".

Moosemilk is a very smooth alcoholic beverage that sneaks up on you. Below you will find a few recipe variations, all of which are quite good:

Navy Recipe

120 oz White Rum, 26 oz Brandy, 26 oz coffee liqueur, 3-4 gal Vanilla Ice Cream, 2-3 gal Whole Milk, 1 qt Whipping Cream, 2 tbsp Vanilla Extract, dash Nutmeg

so you mix it all together and serve?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
527. AwakeInMaryland
2:22 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Australia shipping alert over massive iceberg
Fri Dec 11, 2:34 am ET

Link

Excerpt:

SYDNEY (AFP) – Australian authorities Friday issued a shipping alert over a gigantic iceberg that is gradually approaching the country's southwest coast.

The Bureau of Meteorology said the once-in-a-century cliff of ice, which dislodged from Antarctica about a decade ago before drifting north, was being monitored using satellites.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
526. mikatnight
2:19 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Thanks Tampa (#516), good job. Told you Celine Dion had it going on with Christmas songs. Was never a huge fan of hers, but boy does she know how to belt out a Carol...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
525. mikatnight
2:14 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Cool. His posts are never boring.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
524. PensacolaDoug
2:06 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
He's fine. He'll be on sporadically during the winter.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 563
523. AwakeInMaryland
2:05 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
516. Never mind, I'm staying. Thanks, Tim...a guy who's got the cujones to put Celine Dion in...hmmm, it's a trick to get the chicks, right? (Sorry ladies, I believe he's married...ed. -- NOT like Mr. Woods married, I hope)!!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
522. mikatnight
2:05 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Thats mine. Cylone Oz gave it to me as a christmas gift when he was here for IDA.


Speakin' of the slippery storm chaser/film director, haven't noticed him on in the few days since I've been back here. He's still doing well I trust?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
521. NEwxguy
2:03 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Have been a long time fan of Steely Dan since they broke on the scene back in 1972
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15734
520. TampaSpin
2:02 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting TampaWeatherBuff:
Follow the money? Yea, it's a good idea.


I think the UN Cheif should be a NOBLE prize winner like OBAMA also.....HOLLY COW....both are very deserving maybe.......OMG....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
519. AwakeInMaryland
2:00 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
for those incapable of understanding a highly technical discussion, beware...LOL

Link

warning! dullards and dimwits be forewarned--you are incapable of understanding this! LOL

j/k
/sarc


Ya, okay, I'm out ... cuz you don't luv me anymore, gasp, sob. (: post 321 to you, buster (penance). I think you were here, and will get it...
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
518. mikatnight
1:55 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Love Steely Dan.


Still one of the best shows I’ve ever seen. It was about 3 years ago – lawn ticket “seats” at a whopping $10 each, the band was so tight I was nothing short of astounded the entire evening. I liked ‘em before, but I became a fan after that…
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
517. pearlandaggie
1:55 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
515. oh, my! LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
516. TampaSpin
1:54 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Here is a Christmas play list of Music i put together to play today or on Christmas Eve for your parties.....it plays for about 3 hours
YOU GOTTA HEAR THE FIRST SONG!! WOW I just added it from a post on here earlier.
It play countinuous for 21 songs then just click the Play Next button to continue to the next 20....There are 48 tunes in all! I put it together last year and have expanded it some this year....its really very good i think.....turn your speakers up.
Hope you all like!


Christmas and Love Mix from Tim
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
515. TampaWeatherBuff
1:54 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Follow the money? Yea, it's a good idea.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 188
514. alaina1085
1:52 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:
Interesting prognostications regarding the teleconnection indices of the NAO, PNA and the AO. The GFS ensembles show the NAO diving strongly negative into mid and late December. They are also showing the AO negative and a slighty positive PNA.

What this all means:

Negative NAO is good for blocking resulting in a more westward track of storms. Weak Icelandic low and Azores High which results in weaker westerlies. Cold air is more able coalesce and head farther south from Canada allowing with snowier conditions if the SJT permits. The negative AO allows cold air to reach into the deep south, the more negative the AO the deeper. A slightly positive PNA allows for intensification of the jet stream with cold and dry conditions.

Good post Drake, thanks for breaking it down.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
513. pearlandaggie
1:51 PM GMT on December 11, 2009
for those incapable of understanding a highly technical discussion, beware...LOL

Link

warning! dullards and dimwits be forewarned--you are incapable of understanding this! LOL

j/k
/sarc
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

Viewing: 563 - 513

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.