2000s: hottest decade on record; dangerous blizzard pounds Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on December 09, 2009

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The end of the decade is upon us, and this decade was the warmest decade on record, according to NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The decade of the 2000s was 0.17°C (0.31°F) warmer than the 1990s, according to NOAA. The "official" scientific assessments on climate change, the IPCC reports, have been predicting that Earth's temperature rise should average about 0.19°C per decade, due to human-caused global warming. Thus, the warming over the past decade is about 10% below predictions--well within the uncertainties that natural variation in the climate can bring. Of course, one can look at shorter time periods and say that no warming is occurring. The hottest year on record globally was 1998, according to the UK's HadCRUT3 data set, and was 2005, according to the data sets maintained by NASA and NOAA. It is apparent from the plot of global temperature anomalies (Figure 1) that the global temperature rise has flattened out since 2005. One can correctly say that global temperatures have not increased since 2005. However, climate is measured on time scales of decades, so it is incorrect to say that the climate has not warmed since 2005. It is meaningless to any statement about climate on any time scale less than ten years. Thirty years is better, since the atmosphere has natural multi-decadal oscillations, and the solar cycle of 11 years is also important. Global average temperature oscillates 0.1°C between the maximum and minimum of the solar cycle, and we are currently in an unusually long minimum.


Figure 1. Change in global surface temperature anomaly as computed by NOAA (NCDC Dataset), NASA (GISS data set) and combined Hadley Center and Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (UK) (HadCRUT3 data set). Uncertainty in the HadCRUT3 data is shown in gray. Image credit: WMO.

Mass front-page climate change editorial published in 45 countries
An unprecedented joint editorial urging action on climate change appeared in 56 newspapers in 45 countries yesterday. Many of the papers carried the editorial on the front page. The editorial began: "Unless we combine to take decisive action, climate change will ravage our planet, and with it our prosperity and security. The dangers have been becoming apparent for a generation. Now the facts have started to speak: 11 of the past 14 years have been the warmest on record, the Arctic ice-cap is melting and last year's inflamed oil and food prices provide a foretaste of future havoc. In scientific journals the question is no longer whether humans are to blame, but how little time we have got left to limit the damage. Yet so far the world's response has been feeble and half-hearted.". According to Editor & Publisher, the editorial was published in 20 languages including Chinese, Arabic and Russian. The text was drafted by the UK newspaper, The Guardian, in conjunction with editors from more than 20 of the papers involved. A number of U.S. papers supported the project and agreed with everything in the editorial, but only one--the Miami Herald--was brave enough to publish it.

Posts on the hacked climate scientists' emails
If you haven't read my posts on the hacked email affair, my attitude on the matter can best be summed up by a highly amusing political cartoon by Houston Chronicle cartoonist Nick Anderson. While an investigation is needed into whether the scientific data involved was properly withheld from other scientists, there is nothing in the hacked emails that affects the validity of any of the published peer-reviewed science on climate change. "Climategate" is a manufactured scandal designed to take attention away from the scientific consensus that human-caused global warming is responsible for most of the observed warming in recent decades, and that this warming will increase dramatically in coming decades. My posts on the affair:

Don't shoot the messenger
Embattled UK climate scientist steps down
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change summit. Check out his blog over the next two weeks to hear an insider's view of what's going on.

Major winter storm blasts the Plains and Western U.S.
It's a bad day to be in Iowa, unless you happen to be a polar bear. I'll back up that startling claim with some hard data: at 4:35 am CST, Carroll, Iowa reported heavy snow, sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 48, visibility 350 yards, a temperature of 9°F, and a windchill of -17°F. The mighty storm responsible was centered over Lake Michigan this morning, and is bringing blizzard conditions to Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. The storm has brought very high winds to large portion of the country. Sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 77 mph were reported in Ruidiso, New Mexico yesterday afternoon, and hurricane-force wind gusts were reported in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas yesterday. A peak gust of 105 mph was reported in Texas' Guadeloupe Mountains. Heavy rain from the storm has also brought localized flooding to California, Arizona, and Louisiana.

Some snow amounts from the storm so far (with distances in miles from the city included, where appropriate):

...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 7.8 SSW 30.4
JACOB LAKE 24.0
WILLIAMS 0.4 SW 20.0
GRAND CANYON SOUTH RIM 18.0

...CALIFORNIA...
KIRKWOOD SKI AREA 48.0
ALPINE MEADOWS 45.0
SODA SPRINGS 40.0
KINGVALE 1.3 WSW 37.0
NORTHSTAR 36.0
CISCO 5 ENE 35.0
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 8 SSW 31.0
MAMMOTH LAKES 14.0

...COLORADO...
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9.1 NNW 33.0
CARBONDALE 8.2 S 24.8
CRESTED BUTTE 6.2 N 24.5
DURANGO 24.0
BAYFIELD 7 N 23.5
DOLORES 22 NE 23.0
GREELEY 2.3 SE 22.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 3 SE 22.0

...IDAHO...
WESTON 4.0
POCATELLO AIRPORT 3.7
BOISE 6.7 SE 3.5

...KANSAS...
MARYSVILLE 14.0
LINCOLN 5 NE 12.0
CONCORDIA 5 SSE 11.0
HAYS 13 WNW 9.0
SALINA 8.0
ABILENE 5 SSW 7.0
MANHATTAN 7.0

...NEBRASKA...
TECUMSEH 13.5
ORD 12.0
OMAHA 3 N 8.6
KEARNEY 8.0
INDIANOLA 6.0

...NEW MEXICO...
LAS VEGAS 8.4 NW 8.0
SANTA FE 3.3 NE 5.5
TAOS PUEBLO 2.8 NW 5.2
GALLUP 8.1 NNW 4.8

...NEVADA...
HEAVENLY VALLEY 34.0
MT ROSE SKI AREA 23.0
CARSON CITY 1.3 NW 18.0
RENO 7.1 N 13.7
SUN VALLEY 0.9 N 10.5

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
SIOUX FALLS 6.0

...UTAH...
VERDUE 8 WNW 25.0
SPRINGDELL 23.0
ORDERVILLE 19.0
SPRINGVILLE 10.0

...WYOMING...
SAND LAKE 11.0
DIVIDE PEAK 9.0
LARAMIE 27.3 WSW 6.0
CHEYENNE 26.7 NE 4.3

Next post
I'll have a new post Thursday; there's a lot going on.

Jeff Masters

Snow in Angels Camp. (Isolino)
Woke up this morning to snow. We don't get snow in Angels Camp very often. It made for some difficult driving.
Snow in Angels Camp.
Frost (thebige)
More frost on our car. This photo wasn't cropped or edited.
Frost

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995. biff4ugo
5:35 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
ref 954
Datasets less than 30 years may be missing the longer climate cycles and datasets less than 11 years are definitely missing solar cycles. Many of the datasets showing reverse trends are less than 10 and some are 4. Notice the shorter the record, the more the graphs show cooling. The cool trend graphs do not have the same weight of data behind them. They are poor predictors with weak support but displayed the same way. That is definitely misleading. The stronger/longer datasets show the warm trend.
The report even puts shadow lines behind their graphs to make it look like there is more data that agrees.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1590
994. pinehurstnc
3:49 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
atmo , thanks 4 answering my ? it was appreciated,,
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 59
993. AwakeInMaryland
3:47 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Thanks, Aussie!

Hope you post in new blog, if you haven't already! I haven't been there yet...quick break to refill hot coffee...see you there.
Thnx.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
992. AussieStorm
3:44 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I'll leave now so you can have myspace sparkle weather chat with your friends.

OH, Thank you, thank you, m'Lord!
I see my Church of CC/AGW has been busy proselytizing this morning... I wish our preachers realized that "no souls are won in more than 20 minutes."

Good morning everyone! Bright sunny and cold here, though not that cold in comparison to the Midwest.

Anyone else catch Drew Brees on Jay Leno last night? He certainly is a charmer -- can't wait for the N.O.-Dallas game (Falcons, don't care so much). As a resident of Deadskins land, plus my son was born near Denver...well, gotta' shmear the Cowboys!

Let's see, what else...OH, MikatNight, the editorial cartoons you posted are great...say so much with so few words -- plus they make you smile, and I don't think they are offensive even if you disagree (if you have a sense of humor.)
Real subtle, aren't I?

...not sure if Aussie already addressed the wildfires today...gee, hope it's okay to post other (int'l./weather/climate) news!

From "The Starting Point"

In other news: More than 120 wildfires burned across southeastern Australia today, AFP reported. As temperatures climbed above 100 degrees, thousands of firefighters battled the wind-whipped fires, including one large blaze that burned dangerously close to farming properties in New South Wales. At the time of this writing, a park ranger has died and a pilot was seriously injured when their helicopter crashed while mapping the fires.


There is currently 98 bush/scrub/grass fires burning in NSW. 28 are out of control.

Just some info on some of the fires burning in NSW

Current Situation

Black Pinch Fire:

The fire is currently burning north east of Tenterfield, approx 5km West of Drake.

The Bruxner Highway is closed at this location until further notice.

This afternoon the fire crossed the Bruxner Highway near McLeods Creek and is moving rapidly in a north east direction. Isolated properties in the area may come under threat later this evening.

Surveyors Creek Fire.

The fire is currently burning uncontained near the isolated rural community of Wytaliba, approx 65 km East of Glenn Innes.

The fire has crossed Spring Creek Road and will potentially threaten properties along the Old Glenn Innes Rd this evening.

Kangawalla Fire.

A fire is burning in the Kangawalla Gaming Reserve, around 16km East of Glenn Innes.

The Gaming Reserve has been closed until further notice.

Fire crews are working in the area to protect property.

Cataract Fire & Clarke Fire

A fire is burning near the isolated rural community of Currawinya, approx 50 km north west of Tabulam.

Fire crews are working in the area to protect property.

Lincon Hill

A fire is burning in the area of River Tree Rd, Liston. approximately 30km east of Stanthorp.

Fire crews are currently conducting property protection in the area.

Acacia Plateau

A fire is burning near the NSW-QLD border, around 6km North of the Legume Village.

Fire crews are currently working in the area to contain the fire.

Black Creek – Granite Creek Fire

The fire continues to burn uncontained around 10 kilometres north of Torrington.

Fire crews have assisted landholders construct containments lines around properties and will continue to monitor the fire overnight.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
991. Ossqss
3:43 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting biff4ugo:
Ossgss
Monkton is in the link you gave. A proven sensationalist whose aligances are well known. All the graphics and pop headlines with quotable snippits in that article goes along with the same lack of seriousness or rigor in his political posts.
They use the same quotes from the email talking about "tricks".
FYI look up the number of software classes with "trick" in the title. I attend a tips and tricks class on my spatial analysis software that suggests and teaches quick, easy, or less obvious ways to work with large awkward datasets, get through ponderous methods more easily, etc. It has nothing to do with being misleading, clandestine, or secrative.

Look it up.


Understood, where is the referenced analysis wrong, is the question :)

and new blog ...
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
990. trinigal
3:41 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky:


It's less than a year into his presidency. You can't expect him to own everything now. In 2 years maybe. I respect your views although we don't agree on everything. The jury is still out and he should be given more time before calling for the guillotine is all I'm saying.


Hey, I hear you! There is always that overlap between administrations. I tend to be anti-guillotine myself. Too messy and the clean up is a nightmare.
Member Since: August 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
989. AwakeInMaryland
3:41 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Don't waste yer breath!


LOL, that goes for both sides, doesn't it Doug?
The pomposity has just been overwhelming... I have a "side" but can't stand blowhards or extremists!
See you on the other side! I mean, new Blog...:)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
988. trinigal
3:39 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting JustBobby:
I have what may seem to be an odd question. I suspect that a majority of those who are skeptical of man made global warming tend to have a creationist view of life on planet Earth. While those who think that global warming is the result of human activity, look through the lens of evolutionary processes.

I know that this may seem strange to some, and it may even irritate some who think that it isn't appropriate in this discussion. I am just curious.

Anybody wish to comment?

Thanks


No, I don't think this is necessarily true. I do think this is more of a political issue...left vs. right if you will. More people on the left, but not all, subscribe to evolutionary theory whereas as more people on the right, but not all, subscribe to more God-centered theories. That said, I know democrats who believe current climate change patterns are naturally occurring and I even know some 'George Bush was the best President ever' types who think it is human caused.

Member Since: August 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
987. hurricanejunky
3:38 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting trinigal:


Oh dear, I could write a book on this or, if not a book, a really long paper :)

I don't want to irritate people too much so I'll keep some of my opinions off of here but a big problem I had during the last administration was the spending. Now I know our current President gets blamed for record deficits when, truth be told, the last administration set quite a bit of that in motion before leaving office. However, that said, this administration's spending is outrageous. Also, I run a website and talk to women all over the world daily about healthcare issues. I have some strong thoughts on the healthcare reform being suggested. I know what the media is reporting about the economy but I don't have that warm fuzzy feeling about it yet. I think we're still in for some even tougher times and we just cannot blame everything that goes wrong on the last administration. At some point, this administration needs to start owning up to their own mistakes and failures (and, yes, that could be said for the last administration as well).

I do think the majority of America can look at the past few administrations and lay blame where blame is due. There will always be those, however, who will go down with any sinking ship. I just appreciate the various points of view :)





It's less than a year into his presidency. You can't expect him to own everything now. In 2 years maybe. I respect your views although we don't agree on everything. The jury is still out and he should be given more time before calling for the guillotine is all I'm saying.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
986. PensacolaDoug
3:38 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting Drewby:
"Climate change" or "Global warming" or whatever they are calling it now is the latest way for the world at large to get their hands on America's wealth. Only one nation will pay - the US-of-A!!



Don't waste yer breath!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
985. Drewby
3:35 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
"Climate change" or "Global warming" or whatever they are calling it now is the latest way for the world at large to get their hands on America's wealth. Only one nation will pay - the US-of-A!!
Member Since: November 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
984. AwakeInMaryland
3:35 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
I'll leave now so you can have myspace sparkle weather chat with your friends.

OH, Thank you, thank you, m'Lord!
I see my Church of CC/AGW has been busy proselytizing this morning... I wish our preachers realized that "no souls are won in more than 20 minutes."

Good morning everyone! Bright sunny and cold here, though not that cold in comparison to the Midwest.

Anyone else catch Drew Brees on Jay Leno last night? He certainly is a charmer -- can't wait for the N.O.-Dallas game (Falcons, don't care so much). As a resident of Deadskins land, plus my son was born near Denver...well, gotta' shmear the Cowboys!

Let's see, what else...OH, MikatNight, the editorial cartoons you posted are great...say so much with so few words -- plus they make you smile, and I don't think they are offensive even if you disagree (if you have a sense of humor.)
Real subtle, aren't I?

...not sure if Aussie already addressed the wildfires today...gee, hope it's okay to post other (int'l./weather/climate) news!

From "The Starting Point"

In other news: More than 120 wildfires burned across southeastern Australia today, AFP reported. As temperatures climbed above 100 degrees, thousands of firefighters battled the wind-whipped fires, including one large blaze that burned dangerously close to farming properties in New South Wales. At the time of this writing, a park ranger has died and a pilot was seriously injured when their helicopter crashed while mapping the fires.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
983. biff4ugo
3:34 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
not a great article

Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1590
982. PensacolaDoug
3:34 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
New blog
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
981. PcolaDan
3:33 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
NEW BLOG!!!!!
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
980. trinigal
3:32 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I respect your opinion as well but I have to ask the question. What makes you feel this admimistration is worse? The economy is starting to show positive signs and we're not even a year into his presidency. I know some thought he'd wave his magic wand and 6 months in the economy would miraculously return to 1999 numbers but it doesn't work that way. We have to give him a little time. The messes created by the previous administration took 8 years to make and cleanup usually takes longer than to make the mess. Just my opinion. Thanks for the civil debate.


Oh dear, I could write a book on this or, if not a book, a really long paper :)

I don't want to irritate people too much so I'll keep some of my opinions off of here but a big problem I had during the last administration was the spending. Now I know our current President gets blamed for record deficits when, truth be told, the last administration set quite a bit of that in motion before leaving office. However, that said, this administration's spending is outrageous. Also, I run a website and talk to women all over the world daily about healthcare issues. I have some strong thoughts on the healthcare reform being suggested. I know what the media is reporting about the economy but I don't have that warm fuzzy feeling about it yet. I think we're still in for some even tougher times and we just cannot blame everything that goes wrong on the last administration. At some point, this administration needs to start owning up to their own mistakes and failures (and, yes, that could be said for the last administration as well).

I do think the majority of America can look at the past few administrations and lay blame where blame is due. There will always be those, however, who will go down with any sinking ship. I just appreciate the various points of view :)



Member Since: August 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
979. AFChief
3:30 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
A few years ago I started recording High/Low temperatures from 5 different sites in NC. 3 of those sites are in very rural areas, 1 is in a mixed rural/urban area and one is strictly Urban. I then compared the official temperatures to the 30 yr data for the same locations. I found that yes, the temperatures were rising but only for the Urban area which happened to be RDU, significantly higher. However, when the 30yr data was collected at RDU it was "out in the boonies" so to speak. Now it is totally surrounded by population and concrete. Whereas the temperatures at all other locations were below or equal to the 30yr data plus/minus 1 deg. When the data from all sites was averaged out there was a .10 degree rise in temperatures from the 30 yr data. I will have the 2009 data at the end of Dec. If Dec is "normal" I estimate that the data will be very close to normal and just possibly slightly below. I intend to continue my survey for many years since my small amount of data pales in comparison the the 30yr data.
So right now, I'm thinking the increase in population and the addition of God knows how many tons of cement and the loss of trees and forests has made the difference. If rural areas stay in step with the 30 yr data then I don't think we can call this "Global Warming", but rather overcrowding. The last time I checked my homesite in rural NC is still a part of the "Globe" and I don't have any warming over the 30 yr data.

MAC aka AFCHIEF
978. StormChaser81
3:29 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting atmoaggie:

There is no such thing as a reply "I have to make". I let things just go all the time.



What do temps look like for central Florida as I see the system will track right over it or north of it.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
977. hurricanejunky
3:29 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting mikatnight:
Good one atmoaggie (#972). And on that note, I am outta here...


Don't leave on my account, mik!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
976. hurricanejunky
3:28 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting atmoaggie:

There is no such thing as a reply "I have to make". I let things just go all the time.



You're right...Atmo, you're an insufferable know it all. LOL! ;)
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
975. JustBobby
3:28 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
I have what may seem to be an odd question. I suspect that a majority of those who are skeptical of man made global warming tend to have a creationist view of life on planet Earth. While those who think that global warming is the result of human activity, look through the lens of evolutionary processes.

I know that this may seem strange to some, and it may even irritate some who think that it isn't appropriate in this discussion. I am just curious.

Anybody wish to comment?

Thanks
974. mikatnight
3:28 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Good one atmoaggie (#972). And on that note, I am outta here...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
973. tornadofan
3:27 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Atmo - that snow is interesting indeed. We shall see.

Love your comic there. That is so true.
Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
972. atmoaggie
3:25 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Sorry about the politics, I will try to return to a suitable topic now (barring any replies I have to make).

Hopefully Dr. M will put us on a tropical weather topic later today! The Global Warming burnout is starting to set in....I hope everyone is having a wonderful morning!

There is no such thing as a reply "I have to make". I let things just go all the time.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
971. atmoaggie
3:24 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
HELLOOOOO!

I said snow, SE LA and Mississippi Coast. I'll throw in all of Alabama for light snow and Atlanta with a potential snow storm. And a nor'easter snow storm for the Wash-Boston corridor. Does anyone at all find that scenario interesting?

What is the deal this other junk? Presidential administrations comprised of politicians and what was the temperature in Australia 60 years ago? (Note: They just broke some high temp records previously set 150 years ago)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
970. hurricanejunky
3:23 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Sorry about the politics, I will try to return to a suitable topic now (barring any replies I have to make).

Hopefully Dr. M will put us on a tropical weather topic later today! The Global Warming burnout is starting to set in....I hope everyone is having a wonderful morning!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
969. hurricanejunky
3:20 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting trinigal:
Or is that they aren't offering any solution that is meaningful in your own eyes?


Yeah it must be a conspiracy by the liberal media to suppress all of the innovative ideas coming from the right. That's why I don't hear about any of them. Seriously, none that I've heard represent anything besides the tired old ideas we've heard during the last administration. Do you know of any? I'd like to hear them if you do.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
968. TheCaneWhisperer
3:20 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting trinigal:


I completely respect your opinion as I respect those who feel this administration has done nothing constructive yet. Two very different views but as long as people can respect the rights of others to disagree and that their own opinions are simply their own opinions, the world becomes a more peaceful place. :)

Personally, I was beyond frustrated with the last administration and this administration is even worse so far (in my opinion) but what's a gal to do :)


Think of it like this. And, purely because I was amazed at this years biggest looser, simply amazing what one can do when focused.

A person wants to loose 200lbs. The first 6 months, 40 lbs is lost but, is not visible to the naked eye so nobody thinks your loosing weight, yet. As you start to loose 50 and 60, people start noticing. 60 and beyond the momentum builds as more and more people see and support your efforts until your goal of 200lbs is reached.

I personally think we're in the 50 to 60lb category right now with momentum building this spring.
967. hurricanejunky
3:17 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting trinigal:


I completely respect your opinion as I respect those who feel this administration has done nothing constructive yet. Two very different views but as long as people can respect the rights of others to disagree and that their own opinions are simply their own opinions, the world becomes a more peaceful place. :)

Personally, I was beyond frustrated with the last administration and this administration is even worse so far (in my opinion) but what's a gal to do :)


I respect your opinion as well but I have to ask the question. What makes you feel this admimistration is worse? The economy is starting to show positive signs and we're not even a year into his presidency. I know some thought he'd wave his magic wand and 6 months in the economy would miraculously return to 1999 numbers but it doesn't work that way. We have to give him a little time. The messes created by the previous administration took 8 years to make and cleanup usually takes longer than to make the mess. Just my opinion. Thanks for the civil debate.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
966. bophame
3:16 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
As to the anomaly chart in the OP, Megan McArdle cites Richard Feynmann's history of the Millikan experiment, where subsequent researchers "calibrated" their data in repeating the electron charge experiment. The measured charge on the electron increased with each experiment. You see, Millikan had failed to take into account the viscosity of air, and subsequent researches didn't want to completely debunk Millikan, so the value crept up slowly instead of all at once.

Something similar might have derived the situation on this chart, repeated in the linked post:
Member Since: December 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
965. mikatnight
3:16 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
In a nutshell:

Human beings do not adapt to their environment. Humans adapt their environment to suit them. It all started with fire. We found that if we took fire to a confined space, we could heat our environment. Later we invented air-conditioning and applied the same principle. We are not satisfied however (we never remain satisfied for long), with the whole confined space thingy. We’ve tried building bigger and bigger confined spaces, but when it comes right down to it, turns out we don’t much care for the word “confined”. So it’s only natural that we’re trying to get around it.
Sort of like dipping our toe in the lake to see if we’re tough enough to take the plunge, we stand at the precipice of a scientific frontier that is fraught with danger and uncertainty. But those types of jumping off points are not new to us. It starts with an idea, which gathers momentum, and then someone takes the leap. The idea may start out as radical, but the actions taken as a result is progressive and taken step by step. And when you take the long view, we’re never wrong, and we never fail. Go Humans!
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
964. atmoaggie
3:12 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
0 Z GFS had us a little cold and rather dry for late next week.

The somewhat opaque 6 Z GFS crystal ball looks like light snow for SE LA and coastal MS.



Next output (12 hours later) 0 C line (southernmost blue) is waaay out in the gulf (should be rather cold here). And Delmarva has a nor'easter with strong onshore winds (but it is on the move, so flooding should be minimal).



And I put together a little blog post some of you may find interesting: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/atmoaggie/show.html
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
963. CaneWarning
3:12 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting trinigal:


I completely respect your opinion as I respect those who feel this administration has done nothing constructive yet. Two very different views but as long as people can respect the rights of others to disagree and that their own opinions are simply their own opinions, the world becomes a more peaceful place. :)

Personally, I was beyond frustrated with the last administration and this administration is even worse so far (in my opinion) but what's a gal to do :)


Agreed.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
962. trinigal
3:12 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky: >Why don't you point out one issue where the Republicans have come up with a meaningful alternative solution? You can't. Why? Because they aren't offering any.
Or is that they aren't offering any solution that is meaningful in your own eyes?
Member Since: August 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
961. hurricanejunky
3:09 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting mikatnight:
WunderPoll Results:
The "official" word on climate change, the 2007 report from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), concluded that there was a greater than 90% chance that most of the observed global warming in the past 50 years was due to emission of greenhouse gases by human activity. Do you agree with the IPCC?


Yes, human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are primarily responsible for global warming.

525 (55.2%)
No, natural causes are primarily responsible for global warming.

426 (44.8%)
Total: 951 (100%)



Don't post that pinko commie leftie crap poll on here! LOL!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
That's not true. The right just represents blind opposition and fake outrage now.


What a load...


Why don't you point out one issue where the Republicans have come up with a meaningful alternative solution? You can't. Why? Because they aren't offering any.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
960. trinigal
3:08 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Yes, I do see that. I wasn't necessarily throwing dust as I am a neutral. I vote for the person who is best qualified for the job at the time, regardless of party. I was merely pointing out that it seems Republicans are quick to the trigger this year. Their party took a beating last year and it shows, IMO.


I agree completely. Happens every time regardless of party. Guess that is human nature.
Member Since: August 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
959. JFLORIDA
3:05 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting biff4ugo:
Are there any examples of examples of governmental scientific organizations that deny the position that anthropogenic sources of CO2 effect climate?
This is a question posed on this blog in 2006. I'd like to see the list.


Not here that I know of. In India very recently there was government proclamation of glacial non melting in the Himalayas. Unusually it also had a disclaimer that government scientists may not agree with the government statement!
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
958. AussieStorm
3:04 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Orcasystems.... you've got mail
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
957. TheCaneWhisperer
3:04 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting trinigal:


But don't you see the left does that too? I see the left and the right equally guilty of the same things, as you've just demonstrated. Do you think maybe rather than throw dust on the ones throwing dust, there might be a better way that brings you above the fray?


Yes, I do see that. I wasn't necessarily throwing dust as I am a neutral. I vote for the person who is best qualified for the job at the time, regardless of party. I was merely pointing out that it seems Republicans are quick to the trigger this year. Their party took a beating last year and it shows, IMO.
956. trinigal
3:02 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky:


That's not true. The right just represents blind opposition and fake outrage now. They don't want to come up with solutions to our problems, they want to champion the same old tired ideas that failed miserably for the last 8 years. If there were fresh alternative ideas that represented practical solutions to major problems coming from the right I'd be the first to recognize them. I think the right needs to sit on the sidelines for a while and see if Obama's ideas work. So far, they've had more success than anything the right did for 8 years under Bush. If in 3 more years the Obama administration has left this country worse then what they inherited (impossible) then I'd be the first to concur that he wasn't necessarily a good President. Seeing as how the country has already improved measurably since his taking office, I think slow improvement will continue. Considering what he inherited, it's a miracle we are where we are right now. Having said that, I would love to see Republicans and Democrats work together meaningfully but I don't see it happening.


I completely respect your opinion as I respect those who feel this administration has done nothing constructive yet. Two very different views but as long as people can respect the rights of others to disagree and that their own opinions are simply their own opinions, the world becomes a more peaceful place. :)

Personally, I was beyond frustrated with the last administration and this administration is even worse so far (in my opinion) but what's a gal to do :)
Member Since: August 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
955. PensacolaDoug
3:02 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
That's not true. The right just represents blind opposition and fake outrage now.


What a load...
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
954. Ossqss
3:01 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Perhaps someone would like to review this item? Start at page 17 and have at it or the beginning if ya like :)

Section on TERRESTRIAL VS. SATELLITE TEMPERATURE RECORDS

BTW, this provides a good example of raw vs. processed data results
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
953. Orcasystems
3:01 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting jeffs713:

Exactly right, Orca. I don't like an opinion being shoved down my throat in any circumstances. I'm open to listening to any opinion that is presented to me.. as long as they understand that I may completely end up disagreeing with them. As soon as my position is disparaged (as opposed to debated), I stop listening.


Bingo... give the man a Kupie Doll :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
952. hurricanejunky
3:01 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting CaneWarning:


Morning junky! Is it foggy down there? Tampa is covered in fog now.


Good morning!
No, surprisingly enough. The local forecast had a dense fog warning but it never materialized. That's crazy. The fog the other morning was unreal. I've never seen it so thick even out on the water.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
951. jeffs713
3:00 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:
I have to admit.. some of the post on here have made me rethink my views on this whole subject. Any group that insist they are right.. and EVERYONE else is wrong... and needs to be converted to the light... scares the begeezes out of me.

There are a few groups out there in this world that hold that opinion...

Exactly right, Orca. I don't like an opinion being shoved down my throat in any circumstances. I'm open to listening to any opinion that is presented to me.. as long as they understand that I may completely end up disagreeing with them. As soon as my position is disparaged (as opposed to debated), I stop listening.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
949. PensacolaDoug
2:59 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Mornin Storm.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
948. trinigal
2:59 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting mikatnight:
WunderPoll Results:
The "official" word on climate change, the 2007 report from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), concluded that there was a greater than 90% chance that most of the observed global warming in the past 50 years was due to emission of greenhouse gases by human activity. Do you agree with the IPCC?


Yes, human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are primarily responsible for global warming.

525 (55.2%)
No, natural causes are primarily responsible for global warming.

426 (44.8%)
Total: 951 (100%)



Thank you for finding this. You are awesome!
Member Since: August 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
947. hurricanejunky
2:58 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting FFtrombi:
I must say it is pretty obvious that the people who most vociferously deny global warming on this blog tend not to be able to concede any points with a simple:

You are right about this, thank you for correcting me.

Part of being intelligent and unbiased is the ability to admit when you are wrong, on both sides. There is no church going on, nobody on this blog trying to hoodwink others, the only people who might be doing that are the professionals, so acting civil towards each other should be common sense.


That goes both ways.


That's why he said in his post "both sides".
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
946. AussieStorm
2:58 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
Orcasystems.... you've got mail...again
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
945. JFLORIDA
2:58 PM GMT on December 10, 2009
939. hurricanejunky 2:52 PM GMT on December 10, 2009

I can say too there is almost a cult of moderation that will pick the middle ground of everything just for appearances. While I share your hope I also think everything should be evaluated carefully and holistically; unsubstantiated proposals and outrageous claims discarded and not used to triangulate a successful policy.

I guess I am adding I hope they both work together that way.
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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