2000s: hottest decade on record; dangerous blizzard pounds Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on December 09, 2009

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The end of the decade is upon us, and this decade was the warmest decade on record, according to NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The decade of the 2000s was 0.17°C (0.31°F) warmer than the 1990s, according to NOAA. The "official" scientific assessments on climate change, the IPCC reports, have been predicting that Earth's temperature rise should average about 0.19°C per decade, due to human-caused global warming. Thus, the warming over the past decade is about 10% below predictions--well within the uncertainties that natural variation in the climate can bring. Of course, one can look at shorter time periods and say that no warming is occurring. The hottest year on record globally was 1998, according to the UK's HadCRUT3 data set, and was 2005, according to the data sets maintained by NASA and NOAA. It is apparent from the plot of global temperature anomalies (Figure 1) that the global temperature rise has flattened out since 2005. One can correctly say that global temperatures have not increased since 2005. However, climate is measured on time scales of decades, so it is incorrect to say that the climate has not warmed since 2005. It is meaningless to any statement about climate on any time scale less than ten years. Thirty years is better, since the atmosphere has natural multi-decadal oscillations, and the solar cycle of 11 years is also important. Global average temperature oscillates 0.1°C between the maximum and minimum of the solar cycle, and we are currently in an unusually long minimum.


Figure 1. Change in global surface temperature anomaly as computed by NOAA (NCDC Dataset), NASA (GISS data set) and combined Hadley Center and Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (UK) (HadCRUT3 data set). Uncertainty in the HadCRUT3 data is shown in gray. Image credit: WMO.

Mass front-page climate change editorial published in 45 countries
An unprecedented joint editorial urging action on climate change appeared in 56 newspapers in 45 countries yesterday. Many of the papers carried the editorial on the front page. The editorial began: "Unless we combine to take decisive action, climate change will ravage our planet, and with it our prosperity and security. The dangers have been becoming apparent for a generation. Now the facts have started to speak: 11 of the past 14 years have been the warmest on record, the Arctic ice-cap is melting and last year's inflamed oil and food prices provide a foretaste of future havoc. In scientific journals the question is no longer whether humans are to blame, but how little time we have got left to limit the damage. Yet so far the world's response has been feeble and half-hearted.". According to Editor & Publisher, the editorial was published in 20 languages including Chinese, Arabic and Russian. The text was drafted by the UK newspaper, The Guardian, in conjunction with editors from more than 20 of the papers involved. A number of U.S. papers supported the project and agreed with everything in the editorial, but only one--the Miami Herald--was brave enough to publish it.

Posts on the hacked climate scientists' emails
If you haven't read my posts on the hacked email affair, my attitude on the matter can best be summed up by a highly amusing political cartoon by Houston Chronicle cartoonist Nick Anderson. While an investigation is needed into whether the scientific data involved was properly withheld from other scientists, there is nothing in the hacked emails that affects the validity of any of the published peer-reviewed science on climate change. "Climategate" is a manufactured scandal designed to take attention away from the scientific consensus that human-caused global warming is responsible for most of the observed warming in recent decades, and that this warming will increase dramatically in coming decades. My posts on the affair:

Don't shoot the messenger
Embattled UK climate scientist steps down
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change summit. Check out his blog over the next two weeks to hear an insider's view of what's going on.

Major winter storm blasts the Plains and Western U.S.
It's a bad day to be in Iowa, unless you happen to be a polar bear. I'll back up that startling claim with some hard data: at 4:35 am CST, Carroll, Iowa reported heavy snow, sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 48, visibility 350 yards, a temperature of 9°F, and a windchill of -17°F. The mighty storm responsible was centered over Lake Michigan this morning, and is bringing blizzard conditions to Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. The storm has brought very high winds to large portion of the country. Sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 77 mph were reported in Ruidiso, New Mexico yesterday afternoon, and hurricane-force wind gusts were reported in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas yesterday. A peak gust of 105 mph was reported in Texas' Guadeloupe Mountains. Heavy rain from the storm has also brought localized flooding to California, Arizona, and Louisiana.

Some snow amounts from the storm so far (with distances in miles from the city included, where appropriate):

...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 7.8 SSW 30.4
JACOB LAKE 24.0
WILLIAMS 0.4 SW 20.0
GRAND CANYON SOUTH RIM 18.0

...CALIFORNIA...
KIRKWOOD SKI AREA 48.0
ALPINE MEADOWS 45.0
SODA SPRINGS 40.0
KINGVALE 1.3 WSW 37.0
NORTHSTAR 36.0
CISCO 5 ENE 35.0
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 8 SSW 31.0
MAMMOTH LAKES 14.0

...COLORADO...
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9.1 NNW 33.0
CARBONDALE 8.2 S 24.8
CRESTED BUTTE 6.2 N 24.5
DURANGO 24.0
BAYFIELD 7 N 23.5
DOLORES 22 NE 23.0
GREELEY 2.3 SE 22.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 3 SE 22.0

...IDAHO...
WESTON 4.0
POCATELLO AIRPORT 3.7
BOISE 6.7 SE 3.5

...KANSAS...
MARYSVILLE 14.0
LINCOLN 5 NE 12.0
CONCORDIA 5 SSE 11.0
HAYS 13 WNW 9.0
SALINA 8.0
ABILENE 5 SSW 7.0
MANHATTAN 7.0

...NEBRASKA...
TECUMSEH 13.5
ORD 12.0
OMAHA 3 N 8.6
KEARNEY 8.0
INDIANOLA 6.0

...NEW MEXICO...
LAS VEGAS 8.4 NW 8.0
SANTA FE 3.3 NE 5.5
TAOS PUEBLO 2.8 NW 5.2
GALLUP 8.1 NNW 4.8

...NEVADA...
HEAVENLY VALLEY 34.0
MT ROSE SKI AREA 23.0
CARSON CITY 1.3 NW 18.0
RENO 7.1 N 13.7
SUN VALLEY 0.9 N 10.5

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
SIOUX FALLS 6.0

...UTAH...
VERDUE 8 WNW 25.0
SPRINGDELL 23.0
ORDERVILLE 19.0
SPRINGVILLE 10.0

...WYOMING...
SAND LAKE 11.0
DIVIDE PEAK 9.0
LARAMIE 27.3 WSW 6.0
CHEYENNE 26.7 NE 4.3

Next post
I'll have a new post Thursday; there's a lot going on.

Jeff Masters

Snow in Angels Camp. (Isolino)
Woke up this morning to snow. We don't get snow in Angels Camp very often. It made for some difficult driving.
Snow in Angels Camp.
Frost (thebige)
More frost on our car. This photo wasn't cropped or edited.
Frost

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Well, I assume that is a backdoor way to call me ignorant. Good play. Name-calling that won't get you flagged! I am guessing that the people who provide the numbers to the contrary of those that you cite might sling that back at you. I suppose cattle are greenhouse gas nuetral? They produce CO2, methane, and I would guess some nice sulfur compounds as well. Every man & woman walking the planet does the same (based on the Beano posts from earlier today this crowd surely does!) Are we & the cattle somehow greenhouse gas nuetral? Must be the same theory that makes this health care gig deficit neutral. You are truely a wealth of information, so maybe you can help me to lessen my apparent greenhouse gas ignorance.
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694. xcool
gfs ooz come soon
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Quoting Patrap:
The GFS performed well on the Snow Friday a week ago here.

Thats a Big Ol Artic Dip shown Next Friday the 18th,..one almost like Dec 23 1989

Like I said last night, we really do not need it THAT cold. That couple of days was, umm, problematic.

But, I don't think it is quite setting up to be that cold. A cold front, sure, but not that cold.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Yep. Unfortunately my mom made me move to KY about two months before that snow. I spoke to some of my friends who had worked downtown with me back then after I moved back a few months later. They were riding aluminum kitchen sheetpans down the Main Street bridge! I've seen plenty of snow in my moves around the mid-west, but never anything more than flakes here at home in Jax. :(
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Quoting Skyepony:
Update on the strange lights over Norway..

UPDATE: Circumstantial evidence is mounting that the phenomenon was caused by a malfunctioning rocket, possibly an ICBM launched from a Russian submarine. A Navtex no-fly alert was issued for the White Sea on Dec. 9th, and photographers appear to have recorded the initial boost phase of a launch below the spiral (see inset). A rocket motor spinning out of control could indeed explain the spiral pattern, so this explanation seems plausible, although it has not yet been confirmed.


Can't you just see it? The sub is docked, half the crew is on shore leave, the two guys in the missile section are sitting around getting drunk on Vodka and talking about the ICBM's. The first guy says you know, without the warhead, its really just a giantic bottle rocket like we use to shoot off when we were kids. He looks at the other guy and he starts to grin, then the other guy grins, and the rest as they say is history. LOL
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686, Calusakat.
LOL to that.
But you are absolutely correct. The truth is hard to accept, apparently.
For some folks.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Um an inactive volcano. And there is no sign in the data that any volcanic eruption has ever affected the data in the slightest way.

Of course not.

Wink, wink, nudge, nudge, say no more, say no more. (Monty Pythons Flying Circus)

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Kracatoa (again, not sure of the spelling & it's not worth a search) cooled the average temps for the whole planet. Now, let me be honest here in saying that this came from the show on Discovery a week or so ago about volcanos. Due primarily to ash & sulfur getting into the stratosphere & circulating around the entire planet, temperatures fell around the world, and some places apparently never really had a summer. I'm sure you know that a new volcano has risen above sea-level now & is quite active. When it finally blows again, it is thought that the eruption would be similar to the last... explosive and having a major effect on global climate. Maybe we can have an anti-eruption conference on global cooling! Okay, kidding... can't help myself.
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Quoting pottery:
679.
Congratulations. Worst post of the Month.

Well thank you!

I know that the truth is difficult for you to accept and your award is proof positive that I reached the right nerve.

Again, thanks for the award! I have the perfect place for it all picked out.


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Quoting Patrap:
UNYSIS 10Day GFSX Day 10,18 Dec

Thanks, and thanks for the link!
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684. unf97
Quoting Patrap:
The GFS performed well on the Snow Friday a week ago here.

Thats a Big Ol Artic Dip shown Next Friday the 18th,..one almost like Dec 23 1989


Interesting comparison. Dec 23, 1989 was the last time we received a significant snowfall here in JAX.
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679.
Congratulations. Worst post of the Month.
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UNYSIS 10Day GFSX Day 10,18 Dec
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About a week to 6 days before it.
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Quoting Skyepony:
It should come as little shock that the Canadian delegation ended its first day in Copenhagen with the dishonour of a fossil of the day award, bestowed on countries with the worst performance at international climate negotiations.

In his first public address at the conference, Canada's chief negotiator, Michael Martin, reaffirmed this country's position on greenhouse gas emissions -- which work out to a reduction of three per cent below 1990 levels. That's far below the 20 per cent reduction that the European Union has settled on and distant from the 20 to 40 per cent reduction that climate scientists tell us we have to make in order to avoid a catastrophic rise in global temperatures.

Canada has been called such harsh names as "thuggish, petro-state", "climate crook", and the world's "dirty old man".

It seems a logical political move to make, given the level of public support for stronger emissions targets. In a poll released yesterday, 64 per cent of respondents said industrialized nations ought to commit to higher and harder targets than developing ones, and 81 per cent wanted Canada to act independently of the U.S.

There have been arrests on Parliament Hill, occupations of MPs' offices and protests around the country. People who have never waved a banner in their lives are joining in the protest of how Canada is behaving in Copenhagen, including a minister in Toronto who has sworn to fast for seven days and stake out at the constituency offices of Harper and Prentice. Indeed, churches are just one of many special interest groups joining the call for strong climate leadership.

Isn't violence a wonderful thing?

When you realize that you are beginning to lose the day...send in the thugs. Yeah that's the ticket.

Didn't that sort of thing happen in pre-WW II Germany?

Anyone care to notice who is doing the name calling once again??? I think I will stay with describing them as followers of The Church of the IPCC/AGW because the alternative description is so totally abhorant, even for me.



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Quoting Patrap:
The GFS performed well on the Snow Friday a week ago here.

Thats a Big Ol Artic Dip shown Next Friday the 18th,..one almost like Dec 23 1989


How many days in advance from Fridays snow day did the GFS predict the snow for us Pat?
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I would LOVE to see that snow make its way to Jacksonville, Florida!
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Quoting Patrap:
The GFS performed well on the Snow Friday a week ago here.

Thats a Big Ol Artic Dip shown Next Friday the 18th,..one almost like Dec 23 1989


That would be so much Fun just to have it a week before Christmas.... Yes you are right GFS was right on with last weeks winter storm....

Taco :0)
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No argument here that CO2 is increasing, just question how much of the warming that occurred up until a decade or so ago is due to the CO2. Nobody on this planet can say for sure. I have no argument against lowering emissions. I'm an outdoorsman and spend more of my money through licenses and fees to improve the enviroenment than does the average Joe. Only 10 - 20% of CO2 comes from the use of fossil fuels, so can it be said that only 10 - 20% of any increase that may have occurred in the past 100 years or so, or that may occur in the future is due to fossil fuels?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Latest figures show that CO2 increased 1.88 ppm in the 12 months to November, up from 1.40 ppm in the 12 months to October.LinkAnd the lastest graph of humans changing the air:

And the Vostok CO2 record for the past 420,000 years, showing how our fossil fuel emissions have increased CO2 in the atmosphere far beyond any natural level in hundreds of thousands of years.

Wow, a volcano nearby and the atmospheric co2 is measured there. ?????????

Talk about bad instrument placement.

Perfectly natural for the AGW crowd I guess.


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The GFS performed well on the Snow Friday a week ago here.

Thats a Big Ol Artic Dip shown Next Friday the 18th,..one almost like Dec 23 1989
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Quoting Patrap:


ok Patrap quit pulling my leggs they are already long enough..... so in about a 9 days from now we all along the Gulf Coast will have Snow????

Taco :0)
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671. Skyepony (Mod)
It should come as little shock that the Canadian delegation ended its first day in Copenhagen with the dishonour of a fossil of the day award, bestowed on countries with the worst performance at international climate negotiations.

In his first public address at the conference, Canada's chief negotiator, Michael Martin, reaffirmed this country's position on greenhouse gas emissions -- which work out to a reduction of three per cent below 1990 levels. That's far below the 20 per cent reduction that the European Union has settled on and distant from the 20 to 40 per cent reduction that climate scientists tell us we have to make in order to avoid a catastrophic rise in global temperatures.

Canada has been called such harsh names as "thuggish, petro-state", "climate crook", and the world's "dirty old man".

It seems a logical political move to make, given the level of public support for stronger emissions targets. In a poll released yesterday, 64 per cent of respondents said industrialized nations ought to commit to higher and harder targets than developing ones, and 81 per cent wanted Canada to act independently of the U.S.

There have been arrests on Parliament Hill, occupations of MPs' offices and protests around the country. People who have never waved a banner in their lives are joining in the protest of how Canada is behaving in Copenhagen, including a minister in Toronto who has sworn to fast for seven days and stake out at the constituency offices of Harper and Prentice. Indeed, churches are just one of many special interest groups joining the call for strong climate leadership.
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They haven't?! Maybe you misunderstand my use of the word "charged". I am not speaking in the legal sense, though if justice exists, that should probably come later. I mean charged in the sense of "we the public". They spoke of not allowing dissenting work to be published, changing the meaning of "peer reviewed" etc. They fudged the numbers to look better graphically since the actual data showed no warming for the last decade or so, wich they admitted was a "travesty". Now, you can believe anything you wish as to why they would do this, but a good scientist always says... don't argue with the data. A good scientists also calls a theory a theory, and doesn't confuse correlation with cause. In this cae, all of these rules have been broken, and I if nobody else do "charge" them of falsifying data and at the very least "attempting" to squash dissent. As one of the millions of people who will pay the price (both here and for the developing world) if bad science is used to make policy decisions, I have every right to question their methods, and they should be open & honest with their research. Based on their feelings about the Freedom of Information acts in various countries, it would appear that they did not feel the same. I'm thinking a man guilty of nothing would be unlikely to so quickly step down from his position. As stated before though, I certainly respect your right to your opinions. The truth will eventually be known, I just hope it's not too late for our country.
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Quoting indianrivguy:
To which calusakat replies...

Ahh...another believer in The Church of the IPCC/AGW.


..is this your standard insult for those that do not agree with you? Is it necessary to be so rude.. do you really think it helps convince anyone that you have a good point.. I've been reading your posts for days and I'm convinced you are plenty smart enough to make your points without getting smarmy.

Actually, it is more like turn about is fair play.

The beliefs of those who see the data as not true, are regarded as a justification by those IPCC/AGW folks to call us denialists, contrarians, and personally, when it was assumed that I didn't know how to use Google, that I was ignorant as well. Totally ignoring my numerous references to searches using Google in the previous week.

But all that is neither here nor there.

I cannot let the striking similarities between some of the latest comments and bumper stickers from years earlier go by without out making an observation regarding those similarities. Note that those original bumper stickers were from religious folks who had dropped any pretense of individual thought and comments made the IPCC/AGW crowd,on this very thread, seem to parallel that same lack of individual thought.

Call it a weakness if you like.

Saying it, AGW, is settled and that is all there is to it, is no different than those religious bumper stickers and the connection to The Church of the IPCC/AGW was a natural progression.

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665. Skyepony (Mod)
Tonight's theory on where the hacked email came from is they were leaked after being prepared for release at Steve McIntyre's request via the freedom of info act, that in the end was denied by the FOI folks..
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Post 655. Thank You Aussie, interesting and informative read. Again Thank You!
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
I am going to post now and this is how "I" feel about GW..... Well let me see "I" just donot belive in it at all...... I feel that this is all apart of Life..... Some years are going to be Hotter and then some years will be Colder...... It is all part of "The Cycle".... Now I understand there is debate of who is right or who is wrong, which I will not get into...... I think if you follow the money you might just get the answer you are looking for.... Then on the other hand did the leak of the "E-Mails" really say anything or are they true in what information was left out to change any out come in "Data"..... Who really knows...... "I" feel it is just a cycle and we may even have an early "Ice Age" starting now..... Heck it snowed in New Oreans LA last year and that has not happened in a long time (can't remember the date sorry).... and now we are having one of the worst "Winter Storms" every seen this time of year.... Oh yea lets not forget the White Christmas Houston TX had in 04 that was over 4", then this year just a week ago they had another winter storm..... First time ever this early....Hey remember it is not "Winter"yet, So it is just how you feel about it.....

Now I will get off my soap box and let someone else have there say but remember I will not debate anyone on this matter this is just how "I" feel about it.....

Taco :0)
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661. Skyepony (Mod)
The islanders are in an uproar
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That was a pretty shameful display. people afraid of dissenting opinions. Sounds familiar... Isn't this EXACTLY what some of the AGW research scientists are charged with? Squashing dissent rather than using verifiable facts to disprove it? maybe this is standard practice. Is there a hand-book or something?
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659. Skyepony (Mod)
There is a group Americans for prosperity that was speaking at Copenhagen they don't believe AGW exists. A group of kids crashed their speech. It ended being broadcast live to 40 denial-a-palooza fests across the USA that were happening at the same time. The kids were labeled Nazi youth.. Here's the you tube...GREEN JOBS NOW!
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To which calusakat replies...

Ahh...another believer in The Church of the IPCC/AGW.


..is this your standard insult for those that do not agree with you? Is it necessary to be so rude.. do you really think it helps convince anyone that you have a good point.. I've been reading your posts for days and I'm convinced you are plenty smart enough to make your points without getting smarmy.
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One large volcano eruption like Kracatoa (spelling?) & all of these discussions will be a distant memory...
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656. Skyepony (Mod)
Cleo
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 DEC 2009 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 13:10:46 S Lon : 70:55:42 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 977.3mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.3mb

Center Temp : -74.4C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


Leaving warmer waters behind
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
OK, I'll bite, what story was that?

I can't find the exact post but this was it... from my local Weather Site.

Past decade set to be warmest on record

New research from the World Meteorological Organisation shows that the past decade has been the warmest since records began 160 years ago.

The United Nations weather agency and Britain's Met Office presented their findings at the Copenhagen climate change summit.

The figures show a steady rise in temperatures over the past four decades, with 2009 listed as likely to be the fifth warmest year since records began in 1850.

Doctor Vicky Pope is the head of climate change advice at the Met office.

"In the last decade we have seen that the temperatures haven't gone up very much, but they are clearly a lot warmer then they were in the previous decade," she said.

Some of the UN's weather data was provided by Britain's University of East Anglia which is at the centre of a row over leaked emails which appear to suggest that the theories around man-made climate change are not solid.

The secretary-general of the WMO, Michel Jarraud, also observed that Australia has so far had its third warmest year on record.

"There were above-normal temperatures in most parts of the continents, and only in USA and Canada there were significant areas with cooler-than-average conditions," he said.

"But in large parts of Southern Asia, Central Africa, these regions are likely to have the warmest year on record."

Mr Jarraud says the year has also been notable for extreme weather events.

"China with the third warmest year in the last 50 years, heat waves in Italy, UK, France, Belgium, Germany, an extreme heat wave in India, and Australia the third warmest year on record with three exceptional heat waves," he said.

Those heatwaves hit south-eastern Australia in January, February and November and the sub-tropical east in August.

A climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology's National Climate Centre, Blair Trewin, is not surprised that the WMO has highlighted those events and the deadly February bushfires.

"It's not often you see long-term stations ... break monthly temperature records by two, three, four degrees, and to have it happen three times in the same year in the same continent is pretty significant," he said.

The WMO report also observes an El Nino weather pattern began mid-year. That pattern is dreaded by Australian farmers because it means lower-than-average rainfall, particularly in the east.

Mr Trewin says the El Nino pattern is well-established.

"So far the impacts in Australia have been a bit more modest than those of the last two in 02 and 06," he said.

"It's interesting to note that in the strongest El Nino years, what you tend to see is that the year in which the El Nino ends tends to be a particularly warm one.

"Globally we saw that in 1998 and it will be interesting to see if something similar happens in 2010."

The WMO will release a final report on 2009 next March and Mr Jarraud says at this stage, it is impossible to predict what global conditions will be like next year.

"On top of the trend there's a lot of variability, so we are in a warming trend, we have no doubt about that, but what will be the prediction for next year I would be very, very hesitant to tell you that," he said.

- ABC
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Still messing up this stuff. I meant who you were quoting.
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Lake Effect Snow event for Greater Buffalo, NY:



AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 100027Z - 100430Z

SNOW RATES NEAR 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DEVELOPS OVER LAKE
ERIE. THE HEAVIEST RATES CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR
NEAR THE BUFFALO METRO. VERY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW.

00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING REFLECTS STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN OVERNIGHT...CREATING FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY FOR HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPMENT AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES NEAR 6.5-7 DEGREES CELSIUS. VAD WIND
PROFILE DATA AT BUFFALO INDICATES WINDS ARE NOW
UNIDIRECTIONAL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS FAVORABLY ORIENTED 850/700 MB WIND FETCH
AROUND 250 DEGREES MAXIMIZES VERTICAL TRANSPORT OF
HEAT/MOISTURE...INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES/EFFICIENCY. ALTHOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE WIND ORIENTATION
WILL STILL SUPPORT 1-2 INCH AN HOUR RATES OR GREATER. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AND
INTENSIFY THEREAFTER.

..HURLBUT.. 12/10/2009


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...BUF.

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Quoting Skyepony:
Update on the strange lights over Norway..

UPDATE: Circumstantial evidence is mounting that the phenomenon was caused by a malfunctioning rocket, possibly an ICBM launched from a Russian submarine. A Navtex no-fly alert was issued for the White Sea on Dec. 9th, and photographers appear to have recorded the initial boost phase of a launch below the spiral (see inset). A rocket motor spinning out of control could indeed explain the spiral pattern, so this explanation seems plausible, although it has not yet been confirmed.
Thank you for this update. I have been wondering all day if it had something to do with the military HAARP instalation which some say can alter the weather cause light simular to the northern lights etc. Again Thanks for the update
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Sorry, Gordy, not you--639's.
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650. Skyepony (Mod)
Update on the strange lights over Norway..

UPDATE: Circumstantial evidence is mounting that the phenomenon was caused by a malfunctioning rocket, possibly an ICBM launched from a Russian submarine. A Navtex no-fly alert was issued for the White Sea on Dec. 9th, and photographers appear to have recorded the initial boost phase of a launch below the spiral (see inset). A rocket motor spinning out of control could indeed explain the spiral pattern, so this explanation seems plausible, although it has not yet been confirmed.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
639, suggestion go plant some trees. Better use of your time.

Hope your Parks&Rec has something like this:
Link
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Hello AIM, sounds like the 60's were umm ahhh, well ya know to ya


Wonderful.
And terrible.
Actually, I stole the doobie doobie quote from soneone else that had posted earlier on the blog. It was in italics, on my oriignal posting.

Take care!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
639, suggestion go plant some trees. Better use of your time.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Oh, I'm sorry...I was just having pleasant daydreams and flashbacks about this:

the world was a lot cooler back in the 60's when we had Hippies. You know Peace, Love, Dube Dube Do, or something like that.
Hello AIM, sounds like the 60's were umm ahhh, well ya know to ya
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting AussieStorm:
I see Dr. Masters picked up on a story i posted a few days ago. What took ya so long Dr. J.????
OK, I'll bite, what story was that?
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.