2000s: hottest decade on record; dangerous blizzard pounds Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on December 09, 2009

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The end of the decade is upon us, and this decade was the warmest decade on record, according to NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The decade of the 2000s was 0.17°C (0.31°F) warmer than the 1990s, according to NOAA. The "official" scientific assessments on climate change, the IPCC reports, have been predicting that Earth's temperature rise should average about 0.19°C per decade, due to human-caused global warming. Thus, the warming over the past decade is about 10% below predictions--well within the uncertainties that natural variation in the climate can bring. Of course, one can look at shorter time periods and say that no warming is occurring. The hottest year on record globally was 1998, according to the UK's HadCRUT3 data set, and was 2005, according to the data sets maintained by NASA and NOAA. It is apparent from the plot of global temperature anomalies (Figure 1) that the global temperature rise has flattened out since 2005. One can correctly say that global temperatures have not increased since 2005. However, climate is measured on time scales of decades, so it is incorrect to say that the climate has not warmed since 2005. It is meaningless to any statement about climate on any time scale less than ten years. Thirty years is better, since the atmosphere has natural multi-decadal oscillations, and the solar cycle of 11 years is also important. Global average temperature oscillates 0.1°C between the maximum and minimum of the solar cycle, and we are currently in an unusually long minimum.


Figure 1. Change in global surface temperature anomaly as computed by NOAA (NCDC Dataset), NASA (GISS data set) and combined Hadley Center and Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (UK) (HadCRUT3 data set). Uncertainty in the HadCRUT3 data is shown in gray. Image credit: WMO.

Mass front-page climate change editorial published in 45 countries
An unprecedented joint editorial urging action on climate change appeared in 56 newspapers in 45 countries yesterday. Many of the papers carried the editorial on the front page. The editorial began: "Unless we combine to take decisive action, climate change will ravage our planet, and with it our prosperity and security. The dangers have been becoming apparent for a generation. Now the facts have started to speak: 11 of the past 14 years have been the warmest on record, the Arctic ice-cap is melting and last year's inflamed oil and food prices provide a foretaste of future havoc. In scientific journals the question is no longer whether humans are to blame, but how little time we have got left to limit the damage. Yet so far the world's response has been feeble and half-hearted.". According to Editor & Publisher, the editorial was published in 20 languages including Chinese, Arabic and Russian. The text was drafted by the UK newspaper, The Guardian, in conjunction with editors from more than 20 of the papers involved. A number of U.S. papers supported the project and agreed with everything in the editorial, but only one--the Miami Herald--was brave enough to publish it.

Posts on the hacked climate scientists' emails
If you haven't read my posts on the hacked email affair, my attitude on the matter can best be summed up by a highly amusing political cartoon by Houston Chronicle cartoonist Nick Anderson. While an investigation is needed into whether the scientific data involved was properly withheld from other scientists, there is nothing in the hacked emails that affects the validity of any of the published peer-reviewed science on climate change. "Climategate" is a manufactured scandal designed to take attention away from the scientific consensus that human-caused global warming is responsible for most of the observed warming in recent decades, and that this warming will increase dramatically in coming decades. My posts on the affair:

Don't shoot the messenger
Embattled UK climate scientist steps down
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change summit. Check out his blog over the next two weeks to hear an insider's view of what's going on.

Major winter storm blasts the Plains and Western U.S.
It's a bad day to be in Iowa, unless you happen to be a polar bear. I'll back up that startling claim with some hard data: at 4:35 am CST, Carroll, Iowa reported heavy snow, sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 48, visibility 350 yards, a temperature of 9°F, and a windchill of -17°F. The mighty storm responsible was centered over Lake Michigan this morning, and is bringing blizzard conditions to Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. The storm has brought very high winds to large portion of the country. Sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 77 mph were reported in Ruidiso, New Mexico yesterday afternoon, and hurricane-force wind gusts were reported in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas yesterday. A peak gust of 105 mph was reported in Texas' Guadeloupe Mountains. Heavy rain from the storm has also brought localized flooding to California, Arizona, and Louisiana.

Some snow amounts from the storm so far (with distances in miles from the city included, where appropriate):

...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 7.8 SSW 30.4
JACOB LAKE 24.0
WILLIAMS 0.4 SW 20.0
GRAND CANYON SOUTH RIM 18.0

...CALIFORNIA...
KIRKWOOD SKI AREA 48.0
ALPINE MEADOWS 45.0
SODA SPRINGS 40.0
KINGVALE 1.3 WSW 37.0
NORTHSTAR 36.0
CISCO 5 ENE 35.0
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 8 SSW 31.0
MAMMOTH LAKES 14.0

...COLORADO...
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9.1 NNW 33.0
CARBONDALE 8.2 S 24.8
CRESTED BUTTE 6.2 N 24.5
DURANGO 24.0
BAYFIELD 7 N 23.5
DOLORES 22 NE 23.0
GREELEY 2.3 SE 22.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 3 SE 22.0

...IDAHO...
WESTON 4.0
POCATELLO AIRPORT 3.7
BOISE 6.7 SE 3.5

...KANSAS...
MARYSVILLE 14.0
LINCOLN 5 NE 12.0
CONCORDIA 5 SSE 11.0
HAYS 13 WNW 9.0
SALINA 8.0
ABILENE 5 SSW 7.0
MANHATTAN 7.0

...NEBRASKA...
TECUMSEH 13.5
ORD 12.0
OMAHA 3 N 8.6
KEARNEY 8.0
INDIANOLA 6.0

...NEW MEXICO...
LAS VEGAS 8.4 NW 8.0
SANTA FE 3.3 NE 5.5
TAOS PUEBLO 2.8 NW 5.2
GALLUP 8.1 NNW 4.8

...NEVADA...
HEAVENLY VALLEY 34.0
MT ROSE SKI AREA 23.0
CARSON CITY 1.3 NW 18.0
RENO 7.1 N 13.7
SUN VALLEY 0.9 N 10.5

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
SIOUX FALLS 6.0

...UTAH...
VERDUE 8 WNW 25.0
SPRINGDELL 23.0
ORDERVILLE 19.0
SPRINGVILLE 10.0

...WYOMING...
SAND LAKE 11.0
DIVIDE PEAK 9.0
LARAMIE 27.3 WSW 6.0
CHEYENNE 26.7 NE 4.3

Next post
I'll have a new post Thursday; there's a lot going on.

Jeff Masters

Snow in Angels Camp. (Isolino)
Woke up this morning to snow. We don't get snow in Angels Camp very often. It made for some difficult driving.
Snow in Angels Camp.
Frost (thebige)
More frost on our car. This photo wasn't cropped or edited.
Frost

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Quoting Grothar:


I thought one had to have wit before they were outwitted?? Morning barryweather, how are doing, any snow by you?

Does being a half wit count? :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Patrap:


Was at LSU Last Fri Nite..was snowing like a Banshee,..drive back to NOLA was treacherous at best


Serious flooding by my house. 4 inches of rain, almost 6 for the month has cause lagoons and bayous to overflow across roads
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Use the Force Luke..trust your instincts
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whoaaaa,

I totally just remembered this!

Remember the guy who asked me to go sailing with him today???

Well, he flipped his sailboat in the winds today, and had to swim to shore, he and his two friends sat on the boat for 15 mins trying to warm up, then made a swim for it. The boat is still on the lake, so thank God I did not go!

They are ok, although they were quite cold!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting barryweather:
731. Don't let these guys get your goat. Conveniently they drop out of the argument when outwitted.

(also re 714, T-Dude, and St.S.IslandGAGuy)

A few nights ago, maybe even a week, it was just AtmoAggie and Grothar, give and take, lightly sparring and blocking, like fencing with great form and grace, structure & unwritten rules of courtesy. It was a beautiful thing to observe...I didn't understand 5/6 of it...didn't matter. I had no idea Grothar knew about as much scientific data as Atmo because he's stays on the light side here much of the time, to offset the seriousness of those he works with.

Wow, sure was different from the nasty shenanigans we see here sometimes. I just lurked; kind of felt like a voyeur but didn't want to interrupt the "dance."
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
731, what were the media and the government doing back then? Did the numbers matter if nobody saw them? :)

The Fiction Of Climate Science
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Quoting barryweather:
731. Don't let these guys get your goat. Conveniently they drop out of the argument when outwitted.


I thought one had to have wit before they were outwitted?? Morning barryweather, how are doing, any snow by you?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23748
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Absolutely. STAR Monday morning QUARTERBACK.

Keep Austin Weird!! (Great city slogan!)

SO...a budget meeting was fun.
One of these things is not like the other one...

Wonder when our next snow is coming?...local weather should be on in a few minutes.


haha awesome slogan :P

yeah, budget meeting, woo hoo lol

Um, snow, it is still snowing here, and maybe some more on Friday night, then again next week
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting tornadodude:


haha He is by far one of my favorite players :P

Um, I think he is from Austin, Texas. hmmm, I'm from Texas and I go to Purdue, therefore I must be destined to be a star quarterback ha

Absolutely. STAR Monday morning QUARTERBACK.

Keep Austin Weird!! (Great city slogan!)

SO...a budget meeting was fun.
One of these things is not like the other one...

Wonder when our next snow is coming?...local weather should be on in a few minutes.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
731. Don't let these guys get your goat. Conveniently they drop out of the argument when outwitted.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Okay, he's totally adorable. Up there with Joe Montana. IN & OUT BURGER, yesssss! Wish we had them here in the East.

Where did he grow up? (I understand he went to Purdue? j/k)


haha He is by far one of my favorite players :P

Um, I think he is from Austin, Texas. hmmm, I'm from Texas and I go to Purdue, therefore I must be destined to be a star quarterback ha
jk
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting tornadodude:
Way to represent Purdue, Drew! He just sang our fight song on the Jay Leno show, Boiler Up! haha


Okay, he's totally adorable. Up there with Joe Montana. IN & OUT BURGER, yesssss! Wish we had them here in the East.

Where did he grow up? (I understand he went to Purdue? j/k)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Way to represent Purdue, Drew! He just sang our fight song on the Jay Leno show, Boiler Up! haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Nope it's new.

I'm okay, thanks. Blog got rougher, so I watched a movie. Talk to ya later, maybe!


haha yeah, blog got rough, so I went to a budget meeting for my fraternity, pretty entertaining :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Nope it's new.

I'm okay, thanks. Blog got rougher, so I watched a movie. Talk to ya later, maybe!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Drew Brees coming up on Jay Leno fyi, think it might be a repeat...not sure. NBC.



I'm watching, how you doing?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Drew Brees coming up on Jay Leno fyi, think it might be a repeat...not sure. NBC.

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Yes, I said toon because some of this stuff would be laughable if not so dangerous. Good night all.
You didn't prove it false, you proved that some agreed that it was cooling. This article uses both NOAA and the Academy of Science as sources. NOAA has obviously changed its toon, but why trust them any more now than then. Especially given they are also now being accused of fudging their numbers. Again, read my other post unless you are too impatient to make your own point. I don't disagree that changes are needed, I disagree with the scope and timing because I would like to see this country survive in its current form (Capitalist vs Socialist). Anyone preferring a Euro model is welcome to transplant. If tis was occurring on its own, without also attempting health-care and the myriad of other deficit/economy crippling ideas of this admin, I would be less concerned. I notice again that you respond to only what you choose. No notice of the fact that I said it was reported then that scientific concensus was clear as it is reported now, despite the fact that this is false.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Ah. The media. I am sure you have complete faith in the mainstream media (which is all there was in the 1970s). There were some alarmist pieces published in the media by reporters in the 1970s, during and after a series of unusually cold winters in the 1970s.

However, between 1965 and 1979 there were 71 scientific papers on the subject of climate change. 44 papers predicted global warming. 7 predicted global cooling. 20 were inconclusive/neutral.

So 44 papers from 1965 to 1979 predicting global warming. 7 predicting global cooling.

More than 6 to 1 in favor of global warming! Wow!

Source: Link

What CrackerJacks box did that math come from?

71 scientific papers...44 predicted global warming and that equals a six to one in favor of global warming? By normal math, it's not even 2 to 1.

No small wonder The Church of the IPCC/AGW is so popular. They even use their own math to support their position. I guess it is easier that way. No thinking involved.

Please, I have read your posts over the past year or two and you are quite intelligent and when you read something from the Church of the IPCC/AGW, take the time to see if it really adds up.



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Anyway, celebration is over. Tomorrow is another work day. goodnight.
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By this time, St. Simons, you should realize they don't need documentation or reliable sources. What they need is a wish and a prayer, and guess what. It ain't happenin'
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Yeah, nothing prohibits someone from starting their own blog, other than, perhaps, ignorance.
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I have as much faith in their numbers as yours. Little, but not much. You didn't answer my question about how many scientists have signed onto the IPCC Global warming / climate change (whichever you choose to call it this week). Is it the 2000 or so that Obama's science Czar stated? Should I trust them or the more than 30,000 that have signed off against it? If it were not for the "media" reporting on this it would not be the story that it has become, so given your views you should love them. Exerpt from Newsweek concerning scientific views on the subject back then.
A survey completed last year by Dr. Murray Mitchell of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reveals a drop of half a degree in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968. According to George Kukla of Columbia University, satellite photos indicated a sudden, large increase in Northern Hemisphere snow cover in the winter of 1971-72. And a study released last month by two NOAA scientists notes that the amount of sunshine reaching the ground in the continental U.S. diminished by 1.3% between 1964 and 1972.

To the layman, the relatively small changes in temperature and sunshine can be highly misleading. Reid Bryson of the University of Wisconsin points out that the Earth's average temperature during the great Ice Ages was only about seven degrees lower than during its warmest eras - and that the present decline has taken the planet about a sixth of the way toward the Ice Age average. Others regard the cooling as a reversion to the "little ice age" conditions that brought bitter winters to much of Europe and northern America between 1600 and 1900 - years when the Thames used to freeze so solidly that Londoners roasted oxen on the ice and when iceboats sailed the Hudson River almost as far south as New York City.

Just what causes the onset of major and minor ice ages remains a mystery. "Our knowledge of the mechanisms of climatic change is at least as fragmentary as our data," concedes the National Academy of Sciences report. "Not only are the basic scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the key questions."

Meteorologists think that they can forecast the short-term results of the return to the norm of the last century. They begin by noting the slight drop in overall temperature that produces large numbers of pressure centers in the upper atmosphere. These break up the smooth flow of westerly winds over temperate areas. The stagnant air produced in this way causes an increase in extremes of local weather such as droughts, floods, extended dry spells, long freezes, delayed monsoons and even local temperature increases - all of which have a direct impact on food supplies.

"The world’s food-producing system," warns Dr. James D. McQuigg of NOAA's Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment, "is much more sensitive to the weather variable than it was even five years ago." Furthermore, the growth of world population and creation of new national boundaries make it impossible for starving peoples to migrate from their devastated fields, as they did during past famines.

Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve. But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies. The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality.


and with that, a good night. Have a good one StSimons. Try not to exhale too much tonight. :)
715. xcool
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Quoting theshepherd:
I would feel a lot more trusting of this site if you would allow information from scientist who do not beleive Global Warming is man made

**********************************************************************************************
There is nothing that prohibits a scientist from signing up and posting on this blog or starting his own.


I see his point however.

I am not taking any side on this issue on this blog but if I am presenting a case, and am ultimately trying to convince people that my point of view is the correct view, then I will point out his arguments and then counter them with a convincing argument that uses examples from their side and my side that prove that my data is more accurate.

The point is to make the weaknesses in your opponent's argument clearer, thus making them question their logic and begin to ponder your point of view.

Now, if you do not use your opponent's point of view for an example, then you appear biased. This automatically turns your antagonists off from your argument, and they usually dismiss it instantly. However, if you tend to use illustrations from their arguments, and then counter them with your arguments, you make them think. Once you get your opponent into thinking mode instead of defensive mode, then you have an opportunity to actually have a valid debate with your opponent, thus allowing you the chance to persuade your opposition and to actually present a sound, convincing, logical argument that presents your point of view in the most effective manner possible.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting weatherman874:


Pat, I hope we get it like last year and 04 here because last week was kind of a dud for us here in New Orleans, lots of hope but only sleet..ha


Was at LSU Last Fri Nite..was snowing like a Banshee,..drive back to NOLA was treacherous at best
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Quoting Patrap:
No atmo..not as cold as 89' for sure,..but precip may be as great,if we Lucky this time round.


Pat, I hope we get it like last year and 04 here because last week was kind of a dud for us here in New Orleans, lots of hope but only sleet..ha
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Thanks Thinker. Thought I might have to call mom & get her to send me her old mags for StSimons. :)
Chawk, I assume they could post, but I agree with the rest of your post. I've also noticed that proponents of AGW on here today choose carefully which questions they answer. I've asked a number of questions so far that have been ignored oh so well.
No atmo..not as cold as 89' for sure,..but precip may be as great,if we Lucky this time round.
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Ah the 70's....

Time Magazine and Newsweek: The Ice age! Massive Global Cooling!

http://neoconexpress.blogspot.com/2007/02/newsweek-1975-scientists-predict.html#links

http://neoconexpress.blogspot.com/2007/02/time-like-newsweek-predicted-iceage-in.html#

Same alarmist soundings only now it is "Global Warming!"

(yawn)
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Well, St. Simons, that's not how it was reported in the media. Not sure how old you are, but if you were around then you should know. The scientific concensus now is not that AGW is occurring either as evidenced by the large number who have signed off against there being verifiable proof, but is still being reported by many politicians and "news" outlets that the concensus is there. It also seems to be that you say this despite the many scientists who disagree. I say we play a part in whatever climate change comes to be, but I don't think we should crush our already crippled econmoy to make changes all at once. I prefer incremental changes. I also do not believe we should forgo our sovereinty to be subjected to the whims of the UN, and to support others with my tax dollar. As it stands now we only keep 60 or 70% of the money we earn if we are lucky. If I engage in wealth redistribution I will do it of my own accord. I give money out of every paycheck to help those less fortunate, I work with troubled and abused kids every day where I also give of myself and my wallet. I should not be "forced" into world charity. If these guys are so worried about the planet, then they should lower their standard of living before asking me to lower mine when I can just get by as it is.
I would feel a lot more trusting of this site if you would allow information from scientist who do not beleive Global Warming is man made

**********************************************************************************************
There is nothing that prohibits a scientist from signing up and posting on this blog or starting his own.
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I will defer from posting tonight due to drinking too much wine with my brother after finishing my final exam!
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703. chawk
Doc, Please explain your theory on why data and reports from the '80s were thrown away? While individual meteorologist may only make 30 to 100K for endless hours of work, Dr Jones received nearly 22 million in grants over the last ten years only to end up at the center of this controversy. I would feel a lot more trusting of this site if you would allow information from scientist who do not beleive Global Warming is man made and if you would address the entire story about the email fiasco. This is your site and you certainly have every right to sell your beliefs. All of the countries who's news papers printed articles supporting the Copenhagen agenda today, know that AGW is on a roll to bring down the greatest financial institution in the world, the USA. For scientist that provide supporting information for the new age taxing regimes, there will always be a job. For the farmer,carpenter,mechanic, etc there will be a long period of no jobs. AGW if true will take care of it's self in the form of population reducing disasters. If it is not true, and we continue to legislate as if it is the same population reduction will occur at the hands of a bunch of lying politicians.
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Quoting RTLSNK:


Can't you just see it? The sub is docked, half the crew is on shore leave, the two guys in the missile section are sitting around getting drunk on Vodka and talking about the ICBM's. The first guy says you know, without the warhead, its really just a giantic bottle rocket like we use to shoot off when we were kids. He looks at the other guy and he starts to grin, then the other guy grins, and the rest as they say is history. LOL
Maybe Uppy's Uncle Vladmir?
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31,000 Ignorant Scientists speak...

Global Warming Petition
We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind.

There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.












This petition has been signed by over 31,000 American scientists
Being a child of the 70's I remember the talk of the "coming ice-age" very well. It was proven beyond doubt. Scientific concensus was clear... sounds vaguely familiar... wait... it's coming to me... where do I know this from?... Man how 20 short years changes everything...
Hey, did anyone see this?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/04/climategate-the-smoking-code/

Anyone remember the 70's? We were entering the ice age and all the doom and gloom that we humans were causing that too....

For some people, this climate thing has become religious. Interesting.

What is your take?
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howdy all
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Is it true that 2000 or so scientists have signed onto the IPCC research as being valid?
Well, I assume that is a backdoor way to call me ignorant. Good play. Name-calling that won't get you flagged! I am guessing that the people who provide the numbers to the contrary of those that you cite might sling that back at you. I suppose cattle are greenhouse gas nuetral? They produce CO2, methane, and I would guess some nice sulfur compounds as well. Every man & woman walking the planet does the same (based on the Beano posts from earlier today this crowd surely does!) Are we & the cattle somehow greenhouse gas nuetral? Must be the same theory that makes this health care gig deficit neutral. You are truely a wealth of information, so maybe you can help me to lessen my apparent greenhouse gas ignorance.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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