2000s: hottest decade on record; dangerous blizzard pounds Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on December 09, 2009

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The end of the decade is upon us, and this decade was the warmest decade on record, according to NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The decade of the 2000s was 0.17°C (0.31°F) warmer than the 1990s, according to NOAA. The "official" scientific assessments on climate change, the IPCC reports, have been predicting that Earth's temperature rise should average about 0.19°C per decade, due to human-caused global warming. Thus, the warming over the past decade is about 10% below predictions--well within the uncertainties that natural variation in the climate can bring. Of course, one can look at shorter time periods and say that no warming is occurring. The hottest year on record globally was 1998, according to the UK's HadCRUT3 data set, and was 2005, according to the data sets maintained by NASA and NOAA. It is apparent from the plot of global temperature anomalies (Figure 1) that the global temperature rise has flattened out since 2005. One can correctly say that global temperatures have not increased since 2005. However, climate is measured on time scales of decades, so it is incorrect to say that the climate has not warmed since 2005. It is meaningless to any statement about climate on any time scale less than ten years. Thirty years is better, since the atmosphere has natural multi-decadal oscillations, and the solar cycle of 11 years is also important. Global average temperature oscillates 0.1°C between the maximum and minimum of the solar cycle, and we are currently in an unusually long minimum.


Figure 1. Change in global surface temperature anomaly as computed by NOAA (NCDC Dataset), NASA (GISS data set) and combined Hadley Center and Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (UK) (HadCRUT3 data set). Uncertainty in the HadCRUT3 data is shown in gray. Image credit: WMO.

Mass front-page climate change editorial published in 45 countries
An unprecedented joint editorial urging action on climate change appeared in 56 newspapers in 45 countries yesterday. Many of the papers carried the editorial on the front page. The editorial began: "Unless we combine to take decisive action, climate change will ravage our planet, and with it our prosperity and security. The dangers have been becoming apparent for a generation. Now the facts have started to speak: 11 of the past 14 years have been the warmest on record, the Arctic ice-cap is melting and last year's inflamed oil and food prices provide a foretaste of future havoc. In scientific journals the question is no longer whether humans are to blame, but how little time we have got left to limit the damage. Yet so far the world's response has been feeble and half-hearted.". According to Editor & Publisher, the editorial was published in 20 languages including Chinese, Arabic and Russian. The text was drafted by the UK newspaper, The Guardian, in conjunction with editors from more than 20 of the papers involved. A number of U.S. papers supported the project and agreed with everything in the editorial, but only one--the Miami Herald--was brave enough to publish it.

Posts on the hacked climate scientists' emails
If you haven't read my posts on the hacked email affair, my attitude on the matter can best be summed up by a highly amusing political cartoon by Houston Chronicle cartoonist Nick Anderson. While an investigation is needed into whether the scientific data involved was properly withheld from other scientists, there is nothing in the hacked emails that affects the validity of any of the published peer-reviewed science on climate change. "Climategate" is a manufactured scandal designed to take attention away from the scientific consensus that human-caused global warming is responsible for most of the observed warming in recent decades, and that this warming will increase dramatically in coming decades. My posts on the affair:

Don't shoot the messenger
Embattled UK climate scientist steps down
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change summit. Check out his blog over the next two weeks to hear an insider's view of what's going on.

Major winter storm blasts the Plains and Western U.S.
It's a bad day to be in Iowa, unless you happen to be a polar bear. I'll back up that startling claim with some hard data: at 4:35 am CST, Carroll, Iowa reported heavy snow, sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 48, visibility 350 yards, a temperature of 9°F, and a windchill of -17°F. The mighty storm responsible was centered over Lake Michigan this morning, and is bringing blizzard conditions to Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. The storm has brought very high winds to large portion of the country. Sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 77 mph were reported in Ruidiso, New Mexico yesterday afternoon, and hurricane-force wind gusts were reported in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas yesterday. A peak gust of 105 mph was reported in Texas' Guadeloupe Mountains. Heavy rain from the storm has also brought localized flooding to California, Arizona, and Louisiana.

Some snow amounts from the storm so far (with distances in miles from the city included, where appropriate):

...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 7.8 SSW 30.4
JACOB LAKE 24.0
WILLIAMS 0.4 SW 20.0
GRAND CANYON SOUTH RIM 18.0

...CALIFORNIA...
KIRKWOOD SKI AREA 48.0
ALPINE MEADOWS 45.0
SODA SPRINGS 40.0
KINGVALE 1.3 WSW 37.0
NORTHSTAR 36.0
CISCO 5 ENE 35.0
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 8 SSW 31.0
MAMMOTH LAKES 14.0

...COLORADO...
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9.1 NNW 33.0
CARBONDALE 8.2 S 24.8
CRESTED BUTTE 6.2 N 24.5
DURANGO 24.0
BAYFIELD 7 N 23.5
DOLORES 22 NE 23.0
GREELEY 2.3 SE 22.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 3 SE 22.0

...IDAHO...
WESTON 4.0
POCATELLO AIRPORT 3.7
BOISE 6.7 SE 3.5

...KANSAS...
MARYSVILLE 14.0
LINCOLN 5 NE 12.0
CONCORDIA 5 SSE 11.0
HAYS 13 WNW 9.0
SALINA 8.0
ABILENE 5 SSW 7.0
MANHATTAN 7.0

...NEBRASKA...
TECUMSEH 13.5
ORD 12.0
OMAHA 3 N 8.6
KEARNEY 8.0
INDIANOLA 6.0

...NEW MEXICO...
LAS VEGAS 8.4 NW 8.0
SANTA FE 3.3 NE 5.5
TAOS PUEBLO 2.8 NW 5.2
GALLUP 8.1 NNW 4.8

...NEVADA...
HEAVENLY VALLEY 34.0
MT ROSE SKI AREA 23.0
CARSON CITY 1.3 NW 18.0
RENO 7.1 N 13.7
SUN VALLEY 0.9 N 10.5

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
SIOUX FALLS 6.0

...UTAH...
VERDUE 8 WNW 25.0
SPRINGDELL 23.0
ORDERVILLE 19.0
SPRINGVILLE 10.0

...WYOMING...
SAND LAKE 11.0
DIVIDE PEAK 9.0
LARAMIE 27.3 WSW 6.0
CHEYENNE 26.7 NE 4.3

Next post
I'll have a new post Thursday; there's a lot going on.

Jeff Masters

Snow in Angels Camp. (Isolino)
Woke up this morning to snow. We don't get snow in Angels Camp very often. It made for some difficult driving.
Snow in Angels Camp.
Frost (thebige)
More frost on our car. This photo wasn't cropped or edited.
Frost

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Quoting tornadodude:


aww, I will definitely have to look for one!


Close??

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Grothar:


Giving away my secrets now, eh? yYu are too clever Awake. My kind of gal. Or is last last statement not politically correct anymore?

It's just fine; and thank you!
I would call you a swell guy if I was older (pfft, LOL).
Matt's lady would be a Dudette?
It's getting so confusing...not waiter or waitress but server.
And "actor" is preferred for both male and female, I think?
What's the head of a committee? A chairman or chairperson? I give up.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting Bordonaro:


I used to tease my late wife Sue. I used to tell her that it was so cold in here that the snowman, penguin and polar bear were all building a fire in the corner to stay warm.

I looked on Google for a snowman building a fire with a penguin, couldn't find any good ones!!


aww, I will definitely have to look for one!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


haha love it!


I used to tease my late wife Sue. I used to tell her that it was so cold in here that the snowman, penguin and polar bear were all building a fire in the corner to stay warm.

I looked on Google for a snowman building a fire with a penguin, couldn't find any good ones!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oh quit worrying about the cold tornadodude, and chill out!


LOL hey, after my fraternity's budget meeting, this is a stress reliever :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Bordonaro:


Yes, you do!!



haha love it!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

That's pure genius -- perfect for the blog on a bad day.

Add: But oh those puns!

from Wiki:

A feint retreat is performed by briefly engaging the enemy, then retreating. It is intended to draw the enemy pursuit into a prepared ambush, or to cause disarray.


Giving away my secrets now, eh? yYu are too clever Awake. My kind of gal. Or is last last statement not politically correct anymore?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah, I imagine that at Purdue I have a decent chance


Yes, you do!!

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:


The GFS and NAM are showing a possible White Christmas for about 75% of the CONUS. However, the likelyhood of the computer models of being correct are near what, 20-30%??


Yeah, I imagine that at Purdue I have a decent chance
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


figures! :P

Well it doesnt matter too much, I will be in southern Indiana for most of Christmas break


The GFS and NAM are showing a possible White Christmas for about 75% of the CONUS. However, the likelyhood of the computer models of being correct are near what, 20-30%??
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Grothar:


Thank you Awake for that very nice compliment, but atmoaggie is much more well informed in science than I.

Um, thank you both. But don't sell yourself short, Gro. You're no dummy.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting Bordonaro:
You got REAL COLD tornadodude!

At the DFW AP, the L was 25F, the H was 36F. The wind chill was +12F this morning. Aveeage temp was 31F, 17F below normal. For N Central TX, man it was COLD



It is supposed to get down to 10, windchills down to -10, high of 16 tomorrow
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
You got REAL COLD tornadodude!

At the DFW AP, the L was 25F, the H was 36F. The wind chill was +12F this morning. Aveeage temp was 31F, 17F below normal. For N Central TX, man it was COLD

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:


Looked at winter's blog. He has NAM and GFS forecast model runs up for the next 7-10 days.

At this moment, it looks like the next 3 storms may be rain events. So Sorry :0)


figures! :P

Well it doesnt matter too much, I will be in southern Indiana for most of Christmas break
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


Eh, I have about a half inch on the ground, the wind is really whipping it around tho.

I am certainly hoping that one of these systems takes a more southerly track, more snow for me :)


Looked at winter's blog. He has NAM and GFS forecast model runs up for the next 7-10 days.

At this moment, it looks like the next 3 storms may be rain events. So Sorry :0)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
my high temperature was 44, and my low was 14
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Grothar:


Touch, I hope I didn't make you "feint" Perhaps we could using a little "feinting" here.

That's pure genius -- perfect for the blog on a bad day.

Add: But oh those puns!

from Wiki:

A feint retreat is performed by briefly engaging the enemy, then retreating. It is intended to draw the enemy pursuit into a prepared ambush, or to cause disarray.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting Grothar:


This is a keeper! Thanks Dan. Does it have a name by chance or should we just let the picture speak for itself.


It's from a small group that I found. Take a look, quite funny. I liked this one because I happen to like Flemish Art.

Smiley Family Portrait
In 1621, Flemish artist Anthony van Dyck (Van Dyke) painted a rare portrait of an entire family of Smileys. Their cat, also of cheerful disposition, was not invited to the sitting.

Original (which I have never seen)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:


So, how much snow did you all receive today? I know you may be disappointed, but fear not, the winter season is young and tender. There are 2 or 3 more waves of energy that will be moving into Central CA over the next 7-10 days. Maybe one of those systems will take a track that is more conducive to produce snow for Central Indiana.


Eh, I have about a half inch on the ground, the wind is really whipping it around tho.

I am certainly hoping that one of these systems takes a more southerly track, more snow for me :)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting PcolaDan:




We're all just one big happy family here.



This is a keeper! Thanks Dan. Does it have a name by chance or should we just let the picture speak for itself.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.."I wanna be a featured blog writer"..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah it was crazy bad sailing weather!

If only more of us would use the brain.... :P


So, how much snow did you all receive today? I know you may be disappointed, but fear not, the winter season is young and tender. There are 2 or 3 more waves of energy that will be moving into Central CA over the next 7-10 days. Maybe one of those systems will take a track that is more conducive to produce snow for Central Indiana.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
I have a new blog entry, if anyone cares for some reason.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/winter123/show.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
I do sincerely hope some of you find it mildly interesting...a post has been made: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/atmoaggie/show.html


I am saving this for the morning when my brain is not as worn out from a busy day, that way I can fully appreciate it
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
I do sincerely hope some of you find it mildly interesting...a post has been made: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/atmoaggie/show.html
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Dec 9, 10:54 pm EST

Light Snow and Breezy

17 °F
(-8 °C)
Humidity: 64 %
Wind Speed: W 22 G 29 MPH
Barometer: 29.73" (1007.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 7 °F (-14 °C)
Wind Chill: -0 °F (-18 °C)
Visibility: 8.00 mi.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Bordonaro:


You are more than welcome. The temperatures were 25F, wind chill was +5F, winds were W at 35MPh, gusting to almost 50MPH. the lake was qbout 45F.

Hypothermia in those waters takes < 5 minutes! Cold water can cause anything from leg cramps to a heart attack. Flesh and blood is amazing, can do amazing things, God assembled the human body in a simply amazing fashion.

He also gave everyone a brain, to use wisely!


Yeah it was crazy bad sailing weather!

If only more of us would use the brain.... :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Grothar:


Yo! Dan. I guess only when one reads half of what they are supposed to read. You have got to have a little doodle for that one. Come on don't disappoint us.




We're all just one big happy family here.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


Well I am glad to hear that you are watching out, it is greatly appreciated! thanks! (:


You are more than welcome. The temperatures were 25F, wind chill was +5F, winds were W at 35MPh, gusting to almost 50MPH. the lake was qbout 45F.

Hypothermia in those waters takes < 5 minutes! Cold water can cause anything from leg cramps to a heart attack. Flesh and blood is amazing, can do amazing things, God assembled the human body in a simply amazing fashion.

He also gave everyone a brain, to use wisely!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

VIDEO? Who was recording? I want to see! Can't help it...RTVF major aka video hoe (as opposed to garden hoe).
Grothar, I didn't know you were here when I was typing that little ode to you and Atmo. Dang that ESP, it gets its wires crossed and goes schizzy on me!
I also remembered in fencing it's thrust and parry...one of the few things I didn't stink at in gym class!


Touché, I hope I didn't make you "feint" Perhaps we could using a little "feinting" here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:


Look, everybody gets to meet God one day, like it or not, believe it or not. I am proud of the Living God, the Lord Jesus Christ, that I serve. He has delivered me out of some real messes I made for myself. I must admit, I even sent a copy of the e-mail to the dean of Purdue University to stop Josh before he almost killed himself!! And your name was NOT mentioned!!


Well I am glad to hear that you are watching out, it is greatly appreciated! thanks! (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah, crazy stuff! I feel bad for them.... but that was plain dumb


Look, everybody gets to meet God one day, like it or not, believe it or not. I am proud of the Living God, the Lord Jesus Christ, that I serve. He has delivered me out of some real messes I made for myself. I must admit, I even sent a copy of the e-mail to the dean of Purdue University to stop Josh before he almost killed himself!! And your name was NOT mentioned!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Grothar:


Was this the trip you were contemplating on taking? From now on just stay in your room and play your guitar. It is much safer, unless it is an electric guitar then you must stay away from water. Must we teach you everything?? jööö, du Esel du!



Sadly enough, yes it was :P

haha stay in my room and play my guitar all day? sounds good :)

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

VIDEO? Who was recording? I want to see! Can't help it...RTVF major aka video hoe (as opposed to garden hoe).
Grothar, I didn't know you were here when I was typing that little ode to you and Atmo. Dang that ESP, it gets its wires crossed and goes schizzy on me!
I also remembered in fencing it's thrust and parry...one of the few things I didn't stink at in gym class!


someone recorded it from shore, I have not seen it yet, but if they post it to you-tube, then I will share it here
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Bordonaro:


At this moment about 3,000 four and five letter words are running through my mind!

All I have to say is that I am glad the God in Heaven had mercy. Next they'll be standing out in the middle of a golf course durning a thunderstorm, holding onto a lightning rod!


Yeah, crazy stuff! I feel bad for them.... but that was plain dumb
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


I believe they are all ok, although I'm sure they came very close to hypothermia. So dumb of them to go.

It was all recorded on video btw

VIDEO? Who was recording? I want to see! Can't help it...RTVF major aka video hoe (as opposed to garden hoe).
Grothar, I didn't know you were here when I was typing that little ode to you and Atmo. Dang that ESP, it gets its wires crossed and goes schizzy on me!
I also remembered in fencing it's thrust and parry...one of the few things I didn't stink at in gym class!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting tornadodude:


I believe they are all ok, although I'm sure they came very close to hypothermia. So dumb of them to go.

It was all recorded on video btw


Was this the trip you were contemplating on taking? From now on just stay in your room and play your guitar. It is much safer, unless it is an electric guitar then you must stay away from water. Must we teach you everything?? jööö, du Esel du!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


00z should be here soon:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


I believe they are all ok, although I'm sure they came very close to hypothermia. So dumb of them to go.

It was all recorded on video btw


At this moment about 3,000 four and five letter works are running through my mind!

All I have to say is that I am glad the God in Heaven had mercy. Next they'll be standing out in the middle of a golf course durning a thunderstorm, holding onto a lightning rod!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
...this is climate science, not business.


Tell that to Al....

Just saying, no hard feelings meant, just merely an observation :p
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

(also re 714, T-Dude, and St.S.IslandGAGuy)

A few nights ago, maybe even a week, it was just AtmoAggie and Grothar, give and take, lightly sparring and blocking, like fencing with great form and grace, structure & unwritten rules of courtesy. It was a beautiful thing to observe...I didn't understand 5/6 of it...didn't matter. I had no idea Grothar knew about as much scientific data as Atmo because he's stays on the light side here much of the time, to offset the seriousness of those he works with.

Wow, sure was different from the nasty shenanigans we see here sometimes. I just lurked; kind of felt like a voyeur but didn't want to interrupt the "dance."


Thank you Awake for that very nice compliment, but atmoaggie is much more well informed in science than I.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Are all three okay? Any hypothermia?

That is too darn close to the story about the football players. Wait until Bordonaro hears.
And thanks for remembering to tell us; I kept meaning to ask you about that, Matt.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
tornadodude, one thing a lot of people don't realize is how dangerous frozen spray accumulating on sails, masts, and spars can be. It can add up to tons of ice very quickly, and make the boat get top heavy, unmaneuverable, and unstable. Was it well below freezing when he went out?

He is very lucky.


I believe they are all ok, although I'm sure they came very close to hypothermia. So dumb of them to go.

It was all recorded on video btw
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting PcolaDan:

Does being a half wit count? :)


Yo! Dan. I guess only when one reads half of what they are supposed to read. You have got to have a little doodle for that one. Come on don't disappoint us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Are all three okay? Any hypothermia?

That is too darn close to the story about the football players. Wait until Bordonaro hears.
And thanks for remembering to tell us; I kept meaning to ask you about that, Matt.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting PcolaDan:

Does being a half wit count? :)


my friend who went sailing today was a no wit :PP
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Ossqss:
731, what were the media and the government doing back then? Did the numbers matter if nobody saw them? :)

The Fiction Of Climate Science


The media and the government were still preocuppied with the aftermath of Watergate and the resignation of President Nixon and the ultimate pardon of him by President Ford just a few months before. The country was more concerned with the stability of the nation rather than the weather. In those days we just peeked outside and if it was cloudy we took our umbrellas. This was all pre-Weather Channel and pre-animosity. All in all it wasn't a bad time. One of the many good things President Nixon did was establish the EPA; among some of the things he did that was not so nice.

Here is a little link for you on the EPA.

Link
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Quoting Grothar:


I thought one had to have wit before they were outwitted?? Morning barryweather, how are doing, any snow by you?

Does being a half wit count? :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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