2000s: hottest decade on record; dangerous blizzard pounds Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on December 09, 2009

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The end of the decade is upon us, and this decade was the warmest decade on record, according to NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The decade of the 2000s was 0.17°C (0.31°F) warmer than the 1990s, according to NOAA. The "official" scientific assessments on climate change, the IPCC reports, have been predicting that Earth's temperature rise should average about 0.19°C per decade, due to human-caused global warming. Thus, the warming over the past decade is about 10% below predictions--well within the uncertainties that natural variation in the climate can bring. Of course, one can look at shorter time periods and say that no warming is occurring. The hottest year on record globally was 1998, according to the UK's HadCRUT3 data set, and was 2005, according to the data sets maintained by NASA and NOAA. It is apparent from the plot of global temperature anomalies (Figure 1) that the global temperature rise has flattened out since 2005. One can correctly say that global temperatures have not increased since 2005. However, climate is measured on time scales of decades, so it is incorrect to say that the climate has not warmed since 2005. It is meaningless to any statement about climate on any time scale less than ten years. Thirty years is better, since the atmosphere has natural multi-decadal oscillations, and the solar cycle of 11 years is also important. Global average temperature oscillates 0.1°C between the maximum and minimum of the solar cycle, and we are currently in an unusually long minimum.


Figure 1. Change in global surface temperature anomaly as computed by NOAA (NCDC Dataset), NASA (GISS data set) and combined Hadley Center and Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (UK) (HadCRUT3 data set). Uncertainty in the HadCRUT3 data is shown in gray. Image credit: WMO.

Mass front-page climate change editorial published in 45 countries
An unprecedented joint editorial urging action on climate change appeared in 56 newspapers in 45 countries yesterday. Many of the papers carried the editorial on the front page. The editorial began: "Unless we combine to take decisive action, climate change will ravage our planet, and with it our prosperity and security. The dangers have been becoming apparent for a generation. Now the facts have started to speak: 11 of the past 14 years have been the warmest on record, the Arctic ice-cap is melting and last year's inflamed oil and food prices provide a foretaste of future havoc. In scientific journals the question is no longer whether humans are to blame, but how little time we have got left to limit the damage. Yet so far the world's response has been feeble and half-hearted.". According to Editor & Publisher, the editorial was published in 20 languages including Chinese, Arabic and Russian. The text was drafted by the UK newspaper, The Guardian, in conjunction with editors from more than 20 of the papers involved. A number of U.S. papers supported the project and agreed with everything in the editorial, but only one--the Miami Herald--was brave enough to publish it.

Posts on the hacked climate scientists' emails
If you haven't read my posts on the hacked email affair, my attitude on the matter can best be summed up by a highly amusing political cartoon by Houston Chronicle cartoonist Nick Anderson. While an investigation is needed into whether the scientific data involved was properly withheld from other scientists, there is nothing in the hacked emails that affects the validity of any of the published peer-reviewed science on climate change. "Climategate" is a manufactured scandal designed to take attention away from the scientific consensus that human-caused global warming is responsible for most of the observed warming in recent decades, and that this warming will increase dramatically in coming decades. My posts on the affair:

Don't shoot the messenger
Embattled UK climate scientist steps down
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change summit. Check out his blog over the next two weeks to hear an insider's view of what's going on.

Major winter storm blasts the Plains and Western U.S.
It's a bad day to be in Iowa, unless you happen to be a polar bear. I'll back up that startling claim with some hard data: at 4:35 am CST, Carroll, Iowa reported heavy snow, sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 48, visibility 350 yards, a temperature of 9°F, and a windchill of -17°F. The mighty storm responsible was centered over Lake Michigan this morning, and is bringing blizzard conditions to Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. The storm has brought very high winds to large portion of the country. Sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 77 mph were reported in Ruidiso, New Mexico yesterday afternoon, and hurricane-force wind gusts were reported in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas yesterday. A peak gust of 105 mph was reported in Texas' Guadeloupe Mountains. Heavy rain from the storm has also brought localized flooding to California, Arizona, and Louisiana.

Some snow amounts from the storm so far (with distances in miles from the city included, where appropriate):

...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 7.8 SSW 30.4
JACOB LAKE 24.0
WILLIAMS 0.4 SW 20.0
GRAND CANYON SOUTH RIM 18.0

...CALIFORNIA...
KIRKWOOD SKI AREA 48.0
ALPINE MEADOWS 45.0
SODA SPRINGS 40.0
KINGVALE 1.3 WSW 37.0
NORTHSTAR 36.0
CISCO 5 ENE 35.0
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 8 SSW 31.0
MAMMOTH LAKES 14.0

...COLORADO...
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9.1 NNW 33.0
CARBONDALE 8.2 S 24.8
CRESTED BUTTE 6.2 N 24.5
DURANGO 24.0
BAYFIELD 7 N 23.5
DOLORES 22 NE 23.0
GREELEY 2.3 SE 22.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 3 SE 22.0

...IDAHO...
WESTON 4.0
POCATELLO AIRPORT 3.7
BOISE 6.7 SE 3.5

...KANSAS...
MARYSVILLE 14.0
LINCOLN 5 NE 12.0
CONCORDIA 5 SSE 11.0
HAYS 13 WNW 9.0
SALINA 8.0
ABILENE 5 SSW 7.0
MANHATTAN 7.0

...NEBRASKA...
TECUMSEH 13.5
ORD 12.0
OMAHA 3 N 8.6
KEARNEY 8.0
INDIANOLA 6.0

...NEW MEXICO...
LAS VEGAS 8.4 NW 8.0
SANTA FE 3.3 NE 5.5
TAOS PUEBLO 2.8 NW 5.2
GALLUP 8.1 NNW 4.8

...NEVADA...
HEAVENLY VALLEY 34.0
MT ROSE SKI AREA 23.0
CARSON CITY 1.3 NW 18.0
RENO 7.1 N 13.7
SUN VALLEY 0.9 N 10.5

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
SIOUX FALLS 6.0

...UTAH...
VERDUE 8 WNW 25.0
SPRINGDELL 23.0
ORDERVILLE 19.0
SPRINGVILLE 10.0

...WYOMING...
SAND LAKE 11.0
DIVIDE PEAK 9.0
LARAMIE 27.3 WSW 6.0
CHEYENNE 26.7 NE 4.3

Next post
I'll have a new post Thursday; there's a lot going on.

Jeff Masters

Snow in Angels Camp. (Isolino)
Woke up this morning to snow. We don't get snow in Angels Camp very often. It made for some difficult driving.
Snow in Angels Camp.
Frost (thebige)
More frost on our car. This photo wasn't cropped or edited.
Frost

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Down here, the Miami NWS gives us this to look forward to
BUT UNTIL THE FIRST FRONT COMES THROUGH TONIGHT, WE HAVE TO DEAL
WITH ANOTHER NEAR RECORD HIGH DAY TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERN AREAS
BEING MAINLY AFFECTED. THE RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE 86 FOR PALM
BEACH, FORT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI. THE FCST CALLS FOR 86 AT FORT
LAUDERDALE WHICH IS A TIE AND 87 FOR MIAMI WHICH WOULD BREAK IT.
EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN BY ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND
THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


If you wanted to make it a proper analogy, add:

He didnt actually see the foot on the scale someone that knew and didn't like the doctor said it might be there. He looked fat to others, other measurements said he was fat. His tracks on the ground indicated his weight. His shopping bill indicated his consumption. He didn't work out or exercise. He didn't feel well and was at the doctors and no other diagnoses was available.

A diet and more exercise would be a reasonable precaution then I think -- Instead of listening to him the we should all eat more. Would you let your children take that advise.


Actually, to be even more correct, I could add what the doctor prescribed: That the patient should pay costly "fat credits" in the form of globally enforced cash transfers to people who are also overeating, and refused to participate in the crusade to save the planet from global fatting. This would be enforced by a global government, with the power to afix measurement valves at both ends of the alimentary canal, to make sure the "fat debtor" was forking over sufficient cash.
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Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
This is pretty much how I see the global warming "debate":

If Climate "Researchers" Became Doctors...

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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Ah. The media. I am sure you have complete faith in the mainstream media (which is all there was in the 1970s). There were some alarmist pieces published in the media by reporters in the 1970s, during and after a series of unusually cold winters in the 1970s.

However, between 1965 and 1979 there were 71 scientific papers on the subject of climate change. 44 papers predicted global warming. 7 predicted global cooling. 20 were inconclusive/neutral.

So 44 papers from 1965 to 1979 predicting global warming. 7 predicting global cooling.

More than 6 to 1 in favor of global warming! Wow!

Source: Link


This also shows that even then, with scientists looking at the same data, there was no consensus.

77 papers, 27 of them falling in the cooling/inconclusive/neutral camp.

Remember, inconclusive/neutral simply meant there wasn't enough evidence either way.
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Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Good Morning

36.0 °F
Clear
Windchill: 31 °F
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 21 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.40 in (Rising)
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Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
830. ayi
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST Thursday 10 December 2009

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy, not including Darwin.

At 3:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 170 kilometres north northeast of Goulburn Island and 420 kilometres northeast of Darwin and moving west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.2 degrees South 134.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1002 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Thursday 10 December.
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And if you believe that you might want to get in touch with a guy named Bernie Madoff for investment advice. Many of those numbers a manipulated to make them look higher as indicated in the climategate papers. They continue to keep their method for calculating their numbers secret which 99.99% of the time means they are lying. Real scientists who have confidence in their data like to release their calculations to prove they are correct.

If they are still only using the high and low temperatures the numbers are what we mathematicians refer to as garbage anyway. In the real sciences averages went out with slide rules. Using only the high and low numbers in a set of irregularly distributed series of numbers results in a number that may not be representative of the whole series.

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828. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
hmm the prediction no tropical cyclone before Christmas or January for the Australian region may not happen
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827. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
For Northern Territory (125-142E)
2:20 pm CST December 10 2009
==========================================

A developing Tropical Low, (1005hPa), is located in the Arafura Sea, near 10.0S 134.0E, about 190 kilometres north northeast of Goulburn Island. The low is expected to move west or west southwest during the next three days into the Timor Sea and may develop into a tropical cyclone during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
==================================
Friday: Low
Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: High


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825. xcool



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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting Bordonaro:


Craig has a weird, twisted sense of humor, and I like it. I will be back later today!

Be blessed young man! I am proud of you!


thanks! have a great night!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
818. ROFL -- watched during commercial!


My young adult children bought me a shirt for my 46TH birthday, it read:

"Annoying the WORLD, One Person at a Time".

I proudly wore the shirt!!
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818. ROFL -- watched during commercial!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL!! thanks


Craig has a weird, twisted sense of humor, and I like it. I will be back later today!

Be blessed young man! I am proud of you!
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Quoting Bordonaro:


img src="" alt="" />


LOL!! thanks
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Quoting tornadodude:
goodnight you two!


img src="" alt="" />
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goodnight you two!
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Yes, it is, and, well, they say "there are no coincidences." But I didn't write the mural/metro entry/description.

Paul Sarbanes was a very good Senator. A bit boring...but you know, as I've often said about our climate, boring can be good!
Was also a family friend of my former husband...the Greek-Baltimore tribe. Fun was had by all at the Greek events. I miss the FOOD! But you must go, be well.

I'm off to watch my favorite Scot, new American citizen, Craig Ferguson, all. This was a very nice evening, and I loved the pics, art-smiley...shooting the poor penguin...okay, I admit I laughed; my bad.

Night!



Good Night! Go watch Craig Ferguson and his "puppets"!!
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Yes, it is, and, well, they say "there are no coincidences." But I didn't write the mural/metro entry/description.

Paul Sarbanes was a very good Senator. A bit boring...but you know, as I've often said about our climate, boring can be good!
Was also a family friend of my former husband...the Greek-Baltimore tribe. Fun was had by all at the Greek events. I miss the FOOD! But you must go, be well.

I'm off to watch my favorite Scot, new American citizen, Craig Ferguson, all. This was a very nice evening, and I loved the pics, art-smiley...shooting the poor penguin...okay, I admit I laughed; my bad.

Night!



Beware of Greeks bearing gifts, Awake! bye now for real.
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Quoting Grothar:


That the same Sarbanes on the Watergate committee? Um, Watergate suject twice in one night, what a coincidence. Do you see my earlier blog Awake, we MUST have ESP.


Yes, it is, and, well, they say "there are no coincidences." But I didn't write the mural/metro entry/description.

Paul Sarbanes was a very good Senator. A bit boring...but you know, as I've often said about our climate, boring can be good!
Was also a family friend of my former husband...the Greek-Baltimore tribe. Fun was had by all at the Greek events. I miss the FOOD! But you must go, be well.

I'm off to watch my favorite Scot, new American citizen, Craig Ferguson, all. This was a very nice evening, and I loved the pics, art-smiley...shooting the poor penguin...okay, I admit I laughed; my bad.

Night!

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL does that make the penguin a half wit? and will they bury him 50% below sea level?


Yes, indeed!! Whatever is left of him! That sawd-off shotgun blast to the head didn't leave nothing but 'penguin strips"!!
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Quoting Bordonaro:




Smaller than one thinks! A good laugh before departing into the cold, cruel world, or should I stay on topic and say the warming, cruel world. Must maintain the vernacular!
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Quoting Grothar:


Don't laugh, but they have been serving it where I have been going.


:(
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Quoting Grothar:


That the same Sarbanes on the Watergate committee? Um, Watergate suject twice in one night, what a coincidence. Do you see my earlier blog Awake, we MUST have ESP.


<>img src="" alt="" />
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Quoting tornadodude:


LOL

have a good one Grothar, and if you ever get the Urge.... :PP


Don't laugh, but they have been serving it where I have been going.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Poor gansta penguin! Mean Polla Bear busted a cap in his ...


LOL does that make the penguin a half wit? and will they bury him 50% below sea level?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


I am so disappointed that this mural is still not in place -- I wanted to post you a pic! Promise I will someday; I'm afraid it will be delayed because we are supposed to get a new east-west light rail now -- sorely needed so it will be worth the wait!

I am sorry about your dear late wife; she does sound like a dear!

Artwork

The Silver Spring (Maryland subway) station is also home to Penguin Rush Hour, a 100x8 ft. mural painted by Sally Callmer, depicting penguins as Metro customers during rush hour.[2] Although originally intended to be a temporary exhibit, the mural placed at the station in the early 1990s has become a symbol of the downtown area of Silver Spring. In 2004, the Silver Spring Regional Center, a part of Montgomery County Government, commissioned the original artist to restore the mural, which was damaged by the elements and missing sections, for approximately $30,000. In 2004-2005, the mural was removed for the restoration, with the promise that it would be returned by the end of 2005.[3] As of February 2008, the mural has not returned to its rightful place and most likely will not be returned until the completion of the current WMATA project "Paul S. Sarbanes Transit Center" is completed sometime in 2010.[


That the same Sarbanes on the Watergate committee? Um, Watergate suject twice in one night, what a coincidence. Do you see my earlier blog Awake, we MUST have ESP.
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Quoting tornadodude:


LOL!


Poor gansta penguin! Mean Polla Bear busted a cap in his ...
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Quoting Grothar:
Well, off to work soon! Have a good evening all. Stay well and out of the ice! See if I can stir up a little trouble today. I must say, I sharpen my wits on the blog a little. Or as my good friend Dan, said a half-wit. LOL


Take care, and I will be looking forward to your Trip Report!
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Cool picture. I found one on You Tube

img src="" alt="" />


LOL!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


I am so disappointed that this mural is still not in place -- I wanted to post you a pic! Promise I will someday; I'm afraid it will be delayed because we are supposed to get a new east-west light rail now -- sorely needed so it will be worth the wait!

I am sorry about your dear late wife; she does sound like a dear!

Artwork

The Silver Spring (Maryland subway) station is also home to Penguin Rush Hour, a 100x8 ft. mural painted by Sally Callmer, depicting penguins as Metro customers during rush hour.[2] Although originally intended to be a temporary exhibit, the mural placed at the station in the early 1990s has become a symbol of the downtown area of Silver Spring. In 2004, the Silver Spring Regional Center, a part of Montgomery County Government, commissioned the original artist to restore the mural, which was damaged by the elements and missing sections, for approximately $30,000. In 2004-2005, the mural was removed for the restoration, with the promise that it would be returned by the end of 2005.[3] As of February 2008, the mural has not returned to its rightful place and most likely will not be returned until the completion of the current WMATA project "Paul S. Sarbanes Transit Center" is completed sometime in 2010.[


Thanks, I appreciate that, I'd love to see that pic :0)!!
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Quoting Grothar:
Well, off to work soon! Have a good evening all. Stay well and out of the ice! See if I can stir up a little trouble today. I must say, I sharpen my wits on the blog a little. Or as my good friend Dan, said a half-wit. LOL


LOL

have a good one Grothar, and if you ever get the Urge.... :PP
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Well, off to work soon! Have a good evening all. Stay well and out of the ice! See if I can stir up a little trouble today. I must say, I sharpen my wits on the blog a little. Or as my good friend Dan, said a half-wit. LOL
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha yeah



the penguin and snowman are inside :P


Cool picture. I found one on You Tube

img src="" alt="" />
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Quoting Bordonaro:


I used to tease my late wife Sue. I used to tell her that it was so cold in here that the snowman, penguin and polar bear were all building a fire in the corner to stay warm.

I looked on Google for a snowman building a fire with a penguin, couldn't find any good ones!!


I am so disappointed that this mural is still not in place -- I wanted to post you a pic! Promise I will someday; I'm afraid it will be delayed because we are supposed to get a new east-west light rail now -- sorely needed so it will be worth the wait!

I am sorry about your dear late wife; she does sound like a dear!

Artwork

The Silver Spring (Maryland subway) station is also home to Penguin Rush Hour, a 100x8 ft. mural painted by Sally Callmer, depicting penguins as Metro customers during rush hour.[2] Although originally intended to be a temporary exhibit, the mural placed at the station in the early 1990s has become a symbol of the downtown area of Silver Spring. In 2004, the Silver Spring Regional Center, a part of Montgomery County Government, commissioned the original artist to restore the mural, which was damaged by the elements and missing sections, for approximately $30,000. In 2004-2005, the mural was removed for the restoration, with the promise that it would be returned by the end of 2005.[3] As of February 2008, the mural has not returned to its rightful place and most likely will not be returned until the completion of the current WMATA project "Paul S. Sarbanes Transit Center" is completed sometime in 2010.[
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

It's just fine; and thank you!
I would call you a swell guy if I was older (pfft, LOL).
Matt's lady would be a Dudette?
It's getting so confusing...not waiter or waitress but server.
And "actor" is preferred for both male and female, I think?
What's the head of a committee? A chairman or chairperson? I give up.


Know what you mean. Remember the days in the theater when an actor got a part they called it a "gig". Now they refer to it as "practicing their craft". I think the Actor's Studio in NY had a lot to do with that.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Close??



haha yeah



the penguin and snowman are inside :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting PcolaDan:


It's from a small group that I found. Take a look, quite funny. I liked this one because I happen to like Flemish Art.

Smiley Family Portrait
In 1621, Flemish artist Anthony van Dyck (Van Dyke) painted a rare portrait of an entire family of Smileys. Their cat, also of cheerful disposition, was not invited to the sitting.

Original (which I have never seen)



Thought is looked familiar. Do you know the name of the original? Desecrating classical art now, what is next> LOL
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Quoting tornadodude:


aww, I will definitely have to look for one!


Close??

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.