2000s: hottest decade on record; dangerous blizzard pounds Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on December 09, 2009

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The end of the decade is upon us, and this decade was the warmest decade on record, according to NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The decade of the 2000s was 0.17°C (0.31°F) warmer than the 1990s, according to NOAA. The "official" scientific assessments on climate change, the IPCC reports, have been predicting that Earth's temperature rise should average about 0.19°C per decade, due to human-caused global warming. Thus, the warming over the past decade is about 10% below predictions--well within the uncertainties that natural variation in the climate can bring. Of course, one can look at shorter time periods and say that no warming is occurring. The hottest year on record globally was 1998, according to the UK's HadCRUT3 data set, and was 2005, according to the data sets maintained by NASA and NOAA. It is apparent from the plot of global temperature anomalies (Figure 1) that the global temperature rise has flattened out since 2005. One can correctly say that global temperatures have not increased since 2005. However, climate is measured on time scales of decades, so it is incorrect to say that the climate has not warmed since 2005. It is meaningless to any statement about climate on any time scale less than ten years. Thirty years is better, since the atmosphere has natural multi-decadal oscillations, and the solar cycle of 11 years is also important. Global average temperature oscillates 0.1°C between the maximum and minimum of the solar cycle, and we are currently in an unusually long minimum.


Figure 1. Change in global surface temperature anomaly as computed by NOAA (NCDC Dataset), NASA (GISS data set) and combined Hadley Center and Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (UK) (HadCRUT3 data set). Uncertainty in the HadCRUT3 data is shown in gray. Image credit: WMO.

Mass front-page climate change editorial published in 45 countries
An unprecedented joint editorial urging action on climate change appeared in 56 newspapers in 45 countries yesterday. Many of the papers carried the editorial on the front page. The editorial began: "Unless we combine to take decisive action, climate change will ravage our planet, and with it our prosperity and security. The dangers have been becoming apparent for a generation. Now the facts have started to speak: 11 of the past 14 years have been the warmest on record, the Arctic ice-cap is melting and last year's inflamed oil and food prices provide a foretaste of future havoc. In scientific journals the question is no longer whether humans are to blame, but how little time we have got left to limit the damage. Yet so far the world's response has been feeble and half-hearted.". According to Editor & Publisher, the editorial was published in 20 languages including Chinese, Arabic and Russian. The text was drafted by the UK newspaper, The Guardian, in conjunction with editors from more than 20 of the papers involved. A number of U.S. papers supported the project and agreed with everything in the editorial, but only one--the Miami Herald--was brave enough to publish it.

Posts on the hacked climate scientists' emails
If you haven't read my posts on the hacked email affair, my attitude on the matter can best be summed up by a highly amusing political cartoon by Houston Chronicle cartoonist Nick Anderson. While an investigation is needed into whether the scientific data involved was properly withheld from other scientists, there is nothing in the hacked emails that affects the validity of any of the published peer-reviewed science on climate change. "Climategate" is a manufactured scandal designed to take attention away from the scientific consensus that human-caused global warming is responsible for most of the observed warming in recent decades, and that this warming will increase dramatically in coming decades. My posts on the affair:

Don't shoot the messenger
Embattled UK climate scientist steps down
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change summit. Check out his blog over the next two weeks to hear an insider's view of what's going on.

Major winter storm blasts the Plains and Western U.S.
It's a bad day to be in Iowa, unless you happen to be a polar bear. I'll back up that startling claim with some hard data: at 4:35 am CST, Carroll, Iowa reported heavy snow, sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 48, visibility 350 yards, a temperature of 9°F, and a windchill of -17°F. The mighty storm responsible was centered over Lake Michigan this morning, and is bringing blizzard conditions to Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. The storm has brought very high winds to large portion of the country. Sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 77 mph were reported in Ruidiso, New Mexico yesterday afternoon, and hurricane-force wind gusts were reported in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas yesterday. A peak gust of 105 mph was reported in Texas' Guadeloupe Mountains. Heavy rain from the storm has also brought localized flooding to California, Arizona, and Louisiana.

Some snow amounts from the storm so far (with distances in miles from the city included, where appropriate):

...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 7.8 SSW 30.4
JACOB LAKE 24.0
WILLIAMS 0.4 SW 20.0
GRAND CANYON SOUTH RIM 18.0

...CALIFORNIA...
KIRKWOOD SKI AREA 48.0
ALPINE MEADOWS 45.0
SODA SPRINGS 40.0
KINGVALE 1.3 WSW 37.0
NORTHSTAR 36.0
CISCO 5 ENE 35.0
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 8 SSW 31.0
MAMMOTH LAKES 14.0

...COLORADO...
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9.1 NNW 33.0
CARBONDALE 8.2 S 24.8
CRESTED BUTTE 6.2 N 24.5
DURANGO 24.0
BAYFIELD 7 N 23.5
DOLORES 22 NE 23.0
GREELEY 2.3 SE 22.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 3 SE 22.0

...IDAHO...
WESTON 4.0
POCATELLO AIRPORT 3.7
BOISE 6.7 SE 3.5

...KANSAS...
MARYSVILLE 14.0
LINCOLN 5 NE 12.0
CONCORDIA 5 SSE 11.0
HAYS 13 WNW 9.0
SALINA 8.0
ABILENE 5 SSW 7.0
MANHATTAN 7.0

...NEBRASKA...
TECUMSEH 13.5
ORD 12.0
OMAHA 3 N 8.6
KEARNEY 8.0
INDIANOLA 6.0

...NEW MEXICO...
LAS VEGAS 8.4 NW 8.0
SANTA FE 3.3 NE 5.5
TAOS PUEBLO 2.8 NW 5.2
GALLUP 8.1 NNW 4.8

...NEVADA...
HEAVENLY VALLEY 34.0
MT ROSE SKI AREA 23.0
CARSON CITY 1.3 NW 18.0
RENO 7.1 N 13.7
SUN VALLEY 0.9 N 10.5

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
SIOUX FALLS 6.0

...UTAH...
VERDUE 8 WNW 25.0
SPRINGDELL 23.0
ORDERVILLE 19.0
SPRINGVILLE 10.0

...WYOMING...
SAND LAKE 11.0
DIVIDE PEAK 9.0
LARAMIE 27.3 WSW 6.0
CHEYENNE 26.7 NE 4.3

Next post
I'll have a new post Thursday; there's a lot going on.

Jeff Masters

Snow in Angels Camp. (Isolino)
Woke up this morning to snow. We don't get snow in Angels Camp very often. It made for some difficult driving.
Snow in Angels Camp.
Frost (thebige)
More frost on our car. This photo wasn't cropped or edited.
Frost

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Quoting CaneWarning:


It does, using the same logic you used about, what about the flip side? Many prescription drugs have failed. Look at Fen Phen, Ephedra,
Vioxx, etc.


You forgot Thalidomide! That is what happens when there is not enough research into science, or restrictions set by people we hope will protect us from ourselves.
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it was probably those folks at CERN testing the LHC! LOL

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Quoting NRAamy:
135. Grothar 9:22 AM PST on December 09, 2009
Quoting CaneWarning:


It's unfornate that two days ago you were upset by people making posts just like yours, and now you are doing the same thing.


Doesn't look nice, does it!




hahahahahahaha!!

:)

We're one big happy family!

:)


I think you meant to say one big happy dysfunctional family!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting trinigal:
If Al Gore had lived during the Little Ice Age, he'd probably be blaming it on those pesky Vikings starting unsafe farming practices in Greenland.


Hey, we Vikings weren't pesky, just curious! Nobody even heard of Greenland until my ancestors found it. There it was just sitting in the North Atlantic not bothering anybody.
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135. Grothar 9:22 AM PST on December 09, 2009
Quoting CaneWarning:


It's unfornate that two days ago you were upset by people making posts just like yours, and now you are doing the same thing.


Doesn't look nice, does it!




hahahahahahaha!!

:)

We're one big happy family!

:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
138. personally, i like the "software upload test" comment that was obliquely reminiscent of The Matrix! LOL
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Quoting Grothar:


Doesn't look nice, does it!


It does, using the same logic you used about, what about the flip side? Many prescription drugs have failed. Look at Fen Phen, Ephedra,
Vioxx, etc.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting pearlandaggie:
Mystery as spiral blue light display hovers above Norway



i guess the aliens were opening an inter-dimensional portal! LOL strange phenomenon to say the least!


Now that is just plain old weird. Looked photoshopped, and then I saw the videos. HMMM

Love the comment from the one guy. "One word: Stargate" LOL
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
Mystery as spiral blue light display hovers above Norway



i guess the aliens were opening an inter-dimensional portal! LOL strange phenomenon to say the least!


Oh, don't pay attention to that, it was just me trying to take a picture of the mountains at night. I didn't mean to scare anybody. Sorry.
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Quoting trinigal:
Honestly, I do believe it has become a bit of a religion for some. Now, granted, I was in grad school almost ten years ago but the wisest thing one of my very pro-GW profs said was that you have to have faith in your extrapolations. And, like any religion, their faith will outweigh any argument.
Quoting HurricaneNewbie:
Another thought on the GW equation. If we all decide that GW is happening and that we have the ability to alter the climate who will decide what the correct climate should be? In my office some complain about being hot whilst others complain about being cold. We think the debate over GW is tough. Just wait until that argument starts.
If Al Gore had lived during the Little Ice Age, he'd probably be blaming it on those pesky Vikings starting unsafe farming practices in Greenland.
Member Since: August 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
Quoting CaneWarning:


It's unfornate that two days ago you were upset by people making posts just like yours, and now you are doing the same thing.


Doesn't look nice, does it!
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


What they said was, "Enjoy In Moderation". Ask anyone living in the Gary, IN area in the early 90's if they object to stricter rules. Excessive CO2 is harmful to ones health, not naturally occuring amounts.

Methinks you are confusing CO2 with pollution.

(Yes, I know there are about to be a collection of posts proclaiming CO2 a pollutant because it comes from tail pipes and some in opposition saying so does water vapor. Alas, need to go, so this is truly a parting short, sorry.)
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks mia!!! But it just can't be correct. I bet the NWS is just making us believe it is that warm. It is probably around 25 deg, but they just want us to believe it warm. You know how they all lie. I bet it is actually snowing there and they are just telling you all it is warm to lure the tourists to extract money from them. Probably all the palm trees are just plastic and there really are not palm trees in Florida. It is all an illusion perpetrated by the aristocratic-elitist, liberal-money grabbing politicians who are trying to impose their tyrannical grip over us.

Hey, I think I am getting pretty good at this!!
Do I sound like anyone familiar to the rest of you?????????

You sure do...

You must be a card carrying member of The Church of the IPCC/AGW.

Typical double standard in full display.

Thanks for the reminder... gag :-(

Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
Mystery as spiral blue light display hovers above Norway



i guess the aliens were opening an inter-dimensional portal! LOL strange phenomenon to say the least!
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Quoting Grothar:


I know what you mean Cane, probably the same bunch who thought that a pill called penicillin could kill a bacteria, or a crazy idea to give somebody small pox to prevent small pox, you know the disease that killed millions of people and disfigured them for life. Also the crazy Dr. Salk and Sabin who thought they could stop the polio epidemics with a sugar cube. Probably don't remember the polio epidemics, do you? You know, I think we should just sit back and do nothing. No discussion, no dialogue, no scientific advancement, just stagnation, deterioration, decline. It is just more fun to participate in character assassination than to care for the world around us.


It's unfornate that two days ago you were upset by people making posts just like yours, and now you are doing the same thing.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Grothar:




Hey Grothar! I'm guessing you would have got a kick out of my Constitution class on here last night. LOL
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Another thought on the GW equation. If we all decide that GW is happening and that we have the ability to alter the climate who will decide what the correct climate should be? In my office some complain about being hot whilst others complain about being cold. We think the debate over GW is tough. Just wait until that argument starts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


atmoaggie, you are perhaps one of the few whom I would not mock. I do not dislike anyone who does not agree with me politically or otherwise. Your arguments are sound and I respect the manner in which you deliver them, for the most part. As a favor to me, I do wish you would read other information than your current sources. Not to persuade you, but perhaps give more credence to your position. As I wrote, before, discussion and disagreement is good. Here is a link for you which I am sure you might find interesting.

Link


I am such a policy, tax, and market moron...no amount of trying would make that a strong suit of mine.
Thanks, though. I appreciate you sharing this with me! Doesn't hurt to read up on it, though it will not give me much cred in these subjects beyond being an informed voter. Earth science is my bailiwick and there I shall stay.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Extreme action? That's the problem. We'll never take extreme action. If we did, we wouldn't even be talking about climate change right now. 50% of the forests wouldn't be gone and our energy would come from clean sources.
I will concede the degree that we've altered the climate is debatable but the thought that we can't alter the climate is naive. It's not arrogance to think we can. We're doing it because we've engaged in unfettered polluting worldwide along with massive deforestation. It all adds up after a while. Just my .02


When I say extreme action, I mean things like Cap & Trade, declaring CO2 a danger, etc. We SHOULD be doing things to take care of our environment. I don't consider those things extreme.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting tornadodude:
WASHINGTON -- A House subcommittee has approved legislation aimed at forcing college football to switch to a playoff system to determine a national champion.


Tdude,when I see things like this,I go nuts,nevermind whether this is on the high priority or low priority list.Given the state of country,why TF is this even being discussed by our legislators!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting CaneWarning:


So why take such extreme action when these is such a limited record? I don't see why many can not concede that climate change may very well just be natural! I think humans are too arrogant to think that we can control the climate. We can't control the rain or any other weather event, what makes people think we can alter the global climate?


I know what you mean Cane, probably the same bunch who thought that a pill called penicillin could kill a bacteria, or a crazy idea to give somebody small pox to prevent small pox, you know the disease that killed millions of people and disfigured them for life. Also the crazy Dr. Salk and Sabin who thought they could stop the polio epidemics with a sugar cube. Probably don't remember the polio epidemics, do you? You know, I think we should just sit back and do nothing. No discussion, no dialogue, no scientific advancement, just stagnation, deterioration, decline. It is just more fun to participate in character assassination than to care for the world around us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'll believe it's natural variability when they start having ozone action days in Nebraska.
106. well, Joe Barton is from the DFW area and he's upset that TCU won't have the opportunity to play for the national championship. i don't necessarily disagree with him, but isn't there enough politics in football without Congress intervening? LOL
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Quoting miajrz:
Tdude, 106, yes! You might find this interesting:
Link


very interesting, thanks!

bbl all
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I am taking a class next semester called "German Folk and Fairy Tales"

This is just plain wrong on so many levels...
I tried not to go here, but can't help myself. LOL.

For starters, there's just the name of the class...:)

As I got college credit for "Films of Hitchcock" it is a case of the pot and the kettle!
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I'll be back in an hour :P
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Quoting RJY:
Official temperature records have been kept for only a little over 200 years. The earth is 4.5 billion years old. As far as temperature goes, we are missing a huge amount of the data set. Just because the last decade was the warmest since the late 1700 doesn't mean a damn thing.

Any temperature data prior is nothing but estimates based on models and other (and we're finding out more and more) on obscure data.

Yet, here we are, with governments wanting to impose regulation based on "magic"

What the EPA and the Obama administration did the other day is appauling to say the very least. C02 is a dangerous gas they say??????

Well, I don't want any to breath around me and I guess all of the plant life on the face of the earth will be dying.

WHAT A DAMN JOKE THIS ALL IS


What they said was, "Enjoy In Moderation". Ask anyone living in the Gary, IN area in the early 90's if they object to stricter rules. Excessive CO2 is harmful to ones health, not naturally occuring amounts.
Quoting CaneWarning:


So why take such extreme action when these is such a limited record? I don't see why many can not concede that climate change may very well just be natural! I think humans are too arrogant to think that we can control the climate. We can't control the rain or any other weather event, what makes people think we can alter the global climate?


Extreme action? That's the problem. We'll never take extreme action. If we did, we wouldn't even be talking about climate change right now. 50% of the forests wouldn't be gone and our energy would come from clean sources.
I will concede the degree that we've altered the climate is debatable but the thought that we can't alter the climate is naive. It's not arrogance to think we can. We're doing it because we've engaged in unfettered polluting worldwide along with massive deforestation. It all adds up after a while. Just my .02
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Tdude, 106, yes! You might find this interesting:
Link
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Is this all they have to do?


Quoting tornadodude:
WASHINGTON -- A House subcommittee has approved legislation aimed at forcing college football to switch to a playoff system to determine a national champion.


I imagine this will get more coverage than the important issues. (sigh)
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Quoting CaneWarning:


So why take such extreme action when these is such a limited record? I don't see why many can not concede that climate change may very well just be natural! I think humans are too arrogant to think that we can control the climate. We can't control the rain or any other weather event, what makes people think we can alter the global climate?
Honestly, I do believe it has become a bit of a religion for some. Now, granted, I was in grad school almost ten years ago but the wisest thing one of my very pro-GW profs said was that you have to have faith in your extrapolations. And, like any religion, their faith will outweigh any argument.
Member Since: August 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
Quoting tornadodude:
WASHINGTON -- A House subcommittee has approved legislation aimed at forcing college football to switch to a playoff system to determine a national champion.


Tyranny!!!!!!!!! The next thing you know, they might require the college football players to pass their exams. What is this world coming to!!!!!!! Will it never end.
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So why take such extreme action when these is such a limited record?

that is exactly what I've been trying to say....I've just been doing a crappy job trying to say it....

;0
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Is this all they have to do?


suppose so :/
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


It is a classic! RIP Chris Farley! You are missed...


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Quoting tornadodude:
WASHINGTON -- A House subcommittee has approved legislation aimed at forcing college football to switch to a playoff system to determine a national champion.


Is this all they have to do?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Yes, these must be the same people who don't realize that "Tommy Boy" is a classic!

Tommy Boy 1995



It is a classic! RIP Chris Farley! You are missed...
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Not really...you said yourself previously: ON RECORD. It said the hottest decade ON RECORD. Any hotter decades OFF RECORD would obviously not be included. No one is saying the recorded data is the end all be all of our existence. It's just what they have to go on.


So why take such extreme action when these is such a limited record? I don't see why many can not concede that climate change may very well just be natural! I think humans are too arrogant to think that we can control the climate. We can't control the rain or any other weather event, what makes people think we can alter the global climate?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting atmoaggie:

Hehe. I think you might be mocking me until I got to the fancy political words...

What I would like to see in these statements is inclusion of something like "since records began in year XXXX".

And that answer in this case would be "since records began in Ft. Lauderdale in 1943".

http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwDI~GetCity~USA


atmoaggie, you are perhaps one of the few whom I would not mock. I do not dislike anyone who does not agree with me politically or otherwise. Your arguments are sound and I respect the manner in which you deliver them, for the most part. As a favor to me, I do wish you would read other information than your current sources. Not to persuade you, but perhaps give more credence to your position. As I wrote, before, discussion and disagreement is good. Here is a link for you which I am sure you might find interesting.

Link
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Quoting Ossqss:


Es ist nicht nett, Sprache zu ändern, LoL

L8R


LOL ich schicke meiner tiefsten Entschuldigung Ihre Weise
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Quoting NRAamy:
unless we can get a time machine and go back....way back in time....how can we say the 2000's were the hottest decade? When did we start recording the weather? I mean, come on...it's very misleading info....


Not really...you said yourself previously: ON RECORD. It said the hottest decade ON RECORD. Any hotter decades OFF RECORD would obviously not be included. No one is saying the recorded data is the end all be all of our existence. It's just what they have to go on.
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
96. yeah, hopefully there isn't a BravoAlfaNovember in my future :)


LOL that was creative
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Quoting tornadodude:


ich bin mit Ihnen einverstanden


Es ist nicht nett, Sprache zu ändern, LoL

L8R
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Things are getting pretty icy here.
we have snow falling, the roads are soaking wet, and the temperatures are plummeting through the twenties with a brisk nw wind at about 30mph, gust 50mph. flash freezing on the roads is a concern
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87. RJY 8:48 AM PST on December 09, 2009
Official temperature records have been kept for only a little over 200 years. The earth is 4.5 billion years old. As far as temperature goes, we are missing a huge amount of the data set. Just because the last decade was the warmest since the late 1700 doesn't mean a damn thing.


what he said!
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96. yeah, hopefully there isn't a BravoAlfaNovember in my future :)
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
2. Tornadodude....have you seen the latest images in the snow loop you posted? there are circles around some of the cities! must be UHIE! LOL
Quoting pearlandaggie:
89. almost as much fun as tunnels! LOL


LOL my side hurts from laughing
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89. almost as much fun as tunnels! LOL
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.