2000s: hottest decade on record; dangerous blizzard pounds Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on December 09, 2009

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The end of the decade is upon us, and this decade was the warmest decade on record, according to NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The decade of the 2000s was 0.17°C (0.31°F) warmer than the 1990s, according to NOAA. The "official" scientific assessments on climate change, the IPCC reports, have been predicting that Earth's temperature rise should average about 0.19°C per decade, due to human-caused global warming. Thus, the warming over the past decade is about 10% below predictions--well within the uncertainties that natural variation in the climate can bring. Of course, one can look at shorter time periods and say that no warming is occurring. The hottest year on record globally was 1998, according to the UK's HadCRUT3 data set, and was 2005, according to the data sets maintained by NASA and NOAA. It is apparent from the plot of global temperature anomalies (Figure 1) that the global temperature rise has flattened out since 2005. One can correctly say that global temperatures have not increased since 2005. However, climate is measured on time scales of decades, so it is incorrect to say that the climate has not warmed since 2005. It is meaningless to any statement about climate on any time scale less than ten years. Thirty years is better, since the atmosphere has natural multi-decadal oscillations, and the solar cycle of 11 years is also important. Global average temperature oscillates 0.1°C between the maximum and minimum of the solar cycle, and we are currently in an unusually long minimum.


Figure 1. Change in global surface temperature anomaly as computed by NOAA (NCDC Dataset), NASA (GISS data set) and combined Hadley Center and Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (UK) (HadCRUT3 data set). Uncertainty in the HadCRUT3 data is shown in gray. Image credit: WMO.

Mass front-page climate change editorial published in 45 countries
An unprecedented joint editorial urging action on climate change appeared in 56 newspapers in 45 countries yesterday. Many of the papers carried the editorial on the front page. The editorial began: "Unless we combine to take decisive action, climate change will ravage our planet, and with it our prosperity and security. The dangers have been becoming apparent for a generation. Now the facts have started to speak: 11 of the past 14 years have been the warmest on record, the Arctic ice-cap is melting and last year's inflamed oil and food prices provide a foretaste of future havoc. In scientific journals the question is no longer whether humans are to blame, but how little time we have got left to limit the damage. Yet so far the world's response has been feeble and half-hearted.". According to Editor & Publisher, the editorial was published in 20 languages including Chinese, Arabic and Russian. The text was drafted by the UK newspaper, The Guardian, in conjunction with editors from more than 20 of the papers involved. A number of U.S. papers supported the project and agreed with everything in the editorial, but only one--the Miami Herald--was brave enough to publish it.

Posts on the hacked climate scientists' emails
If you haven't read my posts on the hacked email affair, my attitude on the matter can best be summed up by a highly amusing political cartoon by Houston Chronicle cartoonist Nick Anderson. While an investigation is needed into whether the scientific data involved was properly withheld from other scientists, there is nothing in the hacked emails that affects the validity of any of the published peer-reviewed science on climate change. "Climategate" is a manufactured scandal designed to take attention away from the scientific consensus that human-caused global warming is responsible for most of the observed warming in recent decades, and that this warming will increase dramatically in coming decades. My posts on the affair:

Don't shoot the messenger
Embattled UK climate scientist steps down
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change summit. Check out his blog over the next two weeks to hear an insider's view of what's going on.

Major winter storm blasts the Plains and Western U.S.
It's a bad day to be in Iowa, unless you happen to be a polar bear. I'll back up that startling claim with some hard data: at 4:35 am CST, Carroll, Iowa reported heavy snow, sustained winds of 38 mph, gusting to 48, visibility 350 yards, a temperature of 9°F, and a windchill of -17°F. The mighty storm responsible was centered over Lake Michigan this morning, and is bringing blizzard conditions to Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. The storm has brought very high winds to large portion of the country. Sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 77 mph were reported in Ruidiso, New Mexico yesterday afternoon, and hurricane-force wind gusts were reported in Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas yesterday. A peak gust of 105 mph was reported in Texas' Guadeloupe Mountains. Heavy rain from the storm has also brought localized flooding to California, Arizona, and Louisiana.

Some snow amounts from the storm so far (with distances in miles from the city included, where appropriate):

...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 7.8 SSW 30.4
JACOB LAKE 24.0
WILLIAMS 0.4 SW 20.0
GRAND CANYON SOUTH RIM 18.0

...CALIFORNIA...
KIRKWOOD SKI AREA 48.0
ALPINE MEADOWS 45.0
SODA SPRINGS 40.0
KINGVALE 1.3 WSW 37.0
NORTHSTAR 36.0
CISCO 5 ENE 35.0
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 8 SSW 31.0
MAMMOTH LAKES 14.0

...COLORADO...
PAGOSA SPRINGS 9.1 NNW 33.0
CARBONDALE 8.2 S 24.8
CRESTED BUTTE 6.2 N 24.5
DURANGO 24.0
BAYFIELD 7 N 23.5
DOLORES 22 NE 23.0
GREELEY 2.3 SE 22.0
PAGOSA SPRINGS 3 SE 22.0

...IDAHO...
WESTON 4.0
POCATELLO AIRPORT 3.7
BOISE 6.7 SE 3.5

...KANSAS...
MARYSVILLE 14.0
LINCOLN 5 NE 12.0
CONCORDIA 5 SSE 11.0
HAYS 13 WNW 9.0
SALINA 8.0
ABILENE 5 SSW 7.0
MANHATTAN 7.0

...NEBRASKA...
TECUMSEH 13.5
ORD 12.0
OMAHA 3 N 8.6
KEARNEY 8.0
INDIANOLA 6.0

...NEW MEXICO...
LAS VEGAS 8.4 NW 8.0
SANTA FE 3.3 NE 5.5
TAOS PUEBLO 2.8 NW 5.2
GALLUP 8.1 NNW 4.8

...NEVADA...
HEAVENLY VALLEY 34.0
MT ROSE SKI AREA 23.0
CARSON CITY 1.3 NW 18.0
RENO 7.1 N 13.7
SUN VALLEY 0.9 N 10.5

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
SIOUX FALLS 6.0

...UTAH...
VERDUE 8 WNW 25.0
SPRINGDELL 23.0
ORDERVILLE 19.0
SPRINGVILLE 10.0

...WYOMING...
SAND LAKE 11.0
DIVIDE PEAK 9.0
LARAMIE 27.3 WSW 6.0
CHEYENNE 26.7 NE 4.3

Next post
I'll have a new post Thursday; there's a lot going on.

Jeff Masters

Snow in Angels Camp. (Isolino)
Woke up this morning to snow. We don't get snow in Angels Camp very often. It made for some difficult driving.
Snow in Angels Camp.
Frost (thebige)
More frost on our car. This photo wasn't cropped or edited.
Frost

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Quoting Grothar:


Like all other overseas American cemeteries in France for World War I and II, France has granted the United States a special, perpetual concession to the land occupied by the cemetery, free of any charge or any tax.

The French have always remained grateful of what we have done for them. As many other countries, including Germany who we defeated. The French who work in the cemetaries consider it an honor to maintain it. Those who remember the war still get teary-eyed when they think of the Allies who came to their rescue. I know, I have met many of them. To this day, it is hard to dispel the myths that the French dislike us. They may not always disagree with us, but anti-American sympathy is not only over-exaggerated, but is far less than one would expect.


I stand happily corrected, thank you
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
FROM THE WASHINGTON POST:

France's newly elected president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has already stretched a warm hand of friendship across the Atlantic. He vowed to transform the venomous relations with Washington that prevailed under his predecessor, Jacques Chirac, urged his compatriots to emulate the social mobility and work ethic commonly found in the United States, and expressed pride in his nickname, "Sarko l'americain."

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Christmas week looks like a possible Arctic Blast overtaking the nation with El Nino sub tropical jet overunning....should I dare say snow again for deep south?.....
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Quoting Grothar:


Like all other overseas American cemeteries in France for World War I and II, France has granted the United States a special, perpetual concession to the land occupied by the cemetery, free of any charge or any tax.

The French have always remained grateful of what we have done for them. As many other countries, including Germany who we defeated. The French who work in the cemetaries consider it an honor to maintain it. Those who remember the war still get teary-eyed when they think of the Allies who came to their rescue. I know, I have met many of them. To this day, it is hard to dispel the myths that the French dislike us. They may not always disagree with us, but anti-American sympathy is not only over-exaggerated, but is far less than one would expect.


I've been to France many times, and I must say, that most people there are pleasant. Sure, I did run into a few who said "Speak French or leave" but then again, I'm sure there are a few Americans who would tell them to speak English or leave when they visit us here.
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...for the record; I do NOT own a Humvee...
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330. they might purchase your earth-centered model of the solar system, if you care to take it with you!

LOL
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Ohhhhhhhhhhhh, Junky, you're so cute when you're so sincere...

Well, JUST for starters, there was the French collusion with the Nazis...though the French resistance was commendable.

And then there's the haughty attitude towards Americans...though this is mostly in Paris...many years ago I was trying to use my high school French to buy a ticket for the boat ride on the Seine. The ticket seller said, in a bored, patronizing way, "In English, puh-leez." Okay, my French sucked...but in other countries you get points just for trying!


There was much support for Nazis here in America too, Joseph Kennedy being one of them. As for the French resistance, we probably never would have gotten off the beach without them. French and Nordic resistance were paramount to the US war effort. And well, yes, they are patronizing to everyone, especially in Paris. Parisian consider themselves THE French people, and look down on the rest of France.
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Like all other overseas American cemeteries in France for World War I and II, France has granted the United States a special, perpetual concession to the land occupied by the cemetery, free of any charge or any tax.

The French have always remained grateful of what we have done for them. As many other countries, including Germany who we defeated. The French who work in the cemetaries consider it an honor to maintain it. Those who remember the war still get teary-eyed when they think of the Allies who came to their rescue. I know, I have met many of them. To this day, it is hard to dispel the myths that the French dislike us. They may not always disagree with us, but anti-American sympathy is not only over-exaggerated, but is far less than one would expect.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Are you kidding me? Again, for the THIRD time. Without France, the USA does NOT exist. Any VALID points?


I agree there, but France now is totally different than France back then...

but we are a totally different nation now as well
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting gippgig:
Note that the current decade will actually end at the end, not beginning, of 2010 since the calender starts with year 1. (The first decade was Jan. 1, 1 to Dec. 31, 10 (not Jan. 1, 0 to Dec. 31, 9; there was no year 0), second Jan. 1, 11 to Dec. 31, 20,... current Jan. 1, 2001 to Dec. 31, 2010.)


What?! 1990 was in the 80's?
right... nice try slick, big hole you poked there.
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Quoting presslord:
I'm gonna head over to the Flat Globe Shop...in my Humvee...they have a room in back where you can smoke stinky cigars...and throw darts at a giant picture of Al Gore...
And the navigator is in on this????
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330. presslord 12:02 PM PST on December 09, 2009
I'm gonna head over to the Flat Globe Shop...in my Humvee...they have a room in back where you can smoke stinky cigars...and throw darts at a giant picture of Al Gore...


can I go with you!!!!?????? PLEASE!!!!!!!
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Quoting tornadodude:


also, when we saved them, we lost many good soldiers and they still to this day charge us for the land that the our soldiers are burried on


Are you kidding me? Again, for the THIRD time. Without France, the USA does NOT exist. Any VALID points?
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Didn't they also have something to do with the fermented grapes juice so many seem to enjoy

And they have immigrant slums rivaling the worst neighborhoods of LA.

Like anywhere else, they have some redeeming qualities and some they prefer we don't talk about.
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Quoting presslord:
I'm gonna head over to the Flat Globe Shop...in my Humvee...they have a room in back where you can smoke stinky cigars...and throw darts at a giant picture of Al Gore...


Evolve already! lol
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I'm gonna head over to the Flat Globe Shop...in my Humvee...they have a room in back where you can smoke stinky cigars...and throw darts at a giant picture of Al Gore...
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Quoting DVG:
Canewarning....It is not possible to seperate the politics out of this. A treaty by definition is a political instrument.

I am not qualified to offer anything credible regarding GW's validity, but the economic and political aspects of this I am.

It is my belief however, that mother nature is far more resilient than given credit for.

I would love for there to be alternative energy sources. In fact, I have been to Copenhagen. They have nice windmills off the coast. Also I love the Danes. Great people.

FWIW, I have a video from Hamlet's castle outside Copenhagen in a town called Elsinore.
In the very bottom of the dungeon I used a Sony digital 8 camcorder with the night shot on. In the video there is a remarkable video of something resembling Casper passing my left and proceeding up the dungeon stairs.

I have played this to a number of people, and no one can explain it.


I guess when I say political, I don't mean that type of political.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Don't forget, the French also gave us a very important statue.
Didn't they also have something to do with the fermented grapes juice so many seem to enjoy
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Quoting atmoaggie:

That would only confirm their impression that we care what they think.


love it
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting NRAamy:
Why are you so against France?

we saved their a$$es in WWII, and they have the nerve to look down their ample noses at us.....plus, I can smell their no-underarm-deoderant-wearing pits from here.....


I see you only quoted a snippet of my post. If you refer back to it in the part about the Revolutionary War, I believe we owed them our country's very existence so I guess you could call us even. You don't think we owed them a favor ?!?!?!?
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Nah...

That would only confirm their impression that we care what they think.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
324. DVG
Canewarning....It is not possible to seperate the politics out of this. A treaty by definition is a political instrument.

I am not qualified to offer anything credible regarding GW's validity, but the economic and political aspects of this I am.

It is my belief however, that mother nature is far more resilient than given credit for.

I would love for there to be alternative energy sources. In fact, I have been to Copenhagen. They have nice windmills off the coast. Also I love the Danes. Great people.

FWIW, I have a video from Hamlet's castle outside Copenhagen in a town called Elsinore.
In the very bottom of the dungeon I used a Sony digital 8 camcorder with the night shot on. In the video there is a remarkable video of something resembling Casper passing my left and proceeding up the dungeon stairs.

I have played this to a number of people, and no one can explain it.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Why do you have to take something and run with it to such an extreme? No one said we're all going to die. The above statement sounds like one of those teabagger idiots on Faux news.


Thats pretty much what theses scientists are saying, if we dont do something now, were doomed
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Maybe we ought to redesign her, and have her flipping the middle finger back towards the Atlantic


Nah...
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Quoting CaneWarning:


A war that is still being fought too.


Yes, unfortunately!
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Maybe we ought to redesign her, and have her flipping the middle finger back towards the Atlantic

I love you, Rita...

;)
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Quoting RitaEvac:
this past decade is warmest.....OK that's the smoking gun! it's official climate change is here and were all gonna die....only when satellites were put in orbit too is when the clock starts folks remember that


Why do you have to take something and run with it to such an extreme? No one said we're all going to die. The above statement sounds like one of those teabagger idiots on Faux news.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Don't forget, the French also gave us a very important statue.


Maybe we ought to redesign her, and have her flipping the middle finger back towards the Atlantic
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Quoting Grothar:


There you go again, Awake, trying to start an argument between me and atmoaggie!! LOL


As Stormchaser said, the Blog has been so civil, educational and enjoyable today...how long can this go on, I ask you??!!
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Quoting pearlandaggie:


well, the point i was trying to make was that if the "problem" is approached with an preconceived notion like "there has to be an effect", you most likely will find one whether it exists or not. i deal with lots of real data everyday and i can usually make it tell any story i want it to. that's the unfortunate thing about data...it doesn't withstand torture worth a flip :) it will tell you anything you want to know with a little arm twist...

:)


I hear you. Point taken but neither of us are in a position to make a 100% assertion either way. Thanks for the civil debate.
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Don't forget, the French also gave us a very important statue.
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Capt. Spaulding is probably the only American who doesn't mind their stank.....
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.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Hey if it wasn't for France we would have lost the revolutionary war and we'd be under British rule and we wouldn't have the Statue of Liberty. We could learn alot from France. Their nuclear power system is one good example.
Why are you so against France? Because they wouldn't support our fake war in Iraq?


Ohhhhhhhhhhhh, Junky, you're so cute when you're so sincere...

Well, JUST for starters, there was the French collusion with the Nazis...though the French resistance was commendable.

And then there's the haughty attitude towards Americans...though this is mostly in Paris...many years ago I was trying to use my high school French to buy a ticket for the boat ride on the Seine. The ticket seller said, in a bored, patronizing way, "In English, puh-leez." Okay, my French sucked...but in other countries you get points just for trying!
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Quoting PcolaDan:


But then she would lose her hover power!!

(think about it a second) :)
And don't forget she is a duck hunter!!! :)
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
well, so much for the brief respite from politics...

:(
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Quoting PcolaDan:


OK, on this one I have to correct you. There is a reason why French perfumes are considered the best (and most expensive) in the world. I don't think I've ever been to a place that was so conscientious about body odor. The smell of perfumes and deodorants there can be overwhelming.

img src=" " />


Always wondered why it was called "toilet water"? No need to answer, Dan. LOL
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Why are you so against France?

we saved their a$$es in WWII, and they have the nerve to look down their ample noses at us.....plus, I can smell their no-underarm-deoderant-wearing pits from here.....
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Silly girl.. of course it does not work if it is sitting on your desk....it is intended to be taken internally to work....j/k


But then she would lose her hover power!!

(think about it a second) :)
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Hey if it wasn't for France we would have lost the revolutionary war and we'd be under British rule and we wouldn't have the Statue of Liberty. We could learn alot from France. Their nuclear power system is one good example.
Why are you so against France? Because they wouldn't support our fake war in Iraq?


A war that is still being fought too.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

No, I don't think so. We will still be using plastics, making paint, manufacturing light bulbs, wood stains, making paper, making roofing materials etc.
Our understanding has evolved to find the most cost effective, reliable, resilient, etc. materials, which has a lot to do with the standard of living we enjoy. Most of them do involve nasty toxins. CO2 policy will not change that one bit. This is where we should be working to improve. That and watershed issues. And deforestation. And large-scale litter (think the Texas-sized plastic area in the middle of the Pacific gyre). And particulate pollution controls from diesel engines (everywhere) and from smokestacks where regulation does not exist (Asia). And further sulfur removal from all fuels (leads to SO2, leads to H2SO4). And urban sprawl.

I don't think the accountant that drives an empty F350 45 miles one way to his job downtown in a major metro area is any smarter than you do. We do agree on a lot, and I do understand why you ask these question of me.

The seeps I mentioned are entirely natural. Oil bubbles out of the ocean floor right off the coast of California - 24/7. In a year's time, more oil from that than any human spills. Granted there are some places where the wildlife suffers greatly in the presence of a spill and years pass before it all makes a comeback.

My motivation for having confidence in a scientific conclusion? Umm. How do I answer that? It is just what I know and expect from science. There is no such word allowable as "maybe", "could", or "might", or even "likely" when it comes to anything earth science (IMO) except a forecast ;-)


Excellent. We do seem to agree on quite a bit as I am with you 100% on the issues you mentioned above. Bravo! 1
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Quoting NRAamy:
We need the other nations of the world locked arm in arm with us on this issue before it will truly be effective.

ok, fine..as long as I don't have to lock arms with France...well, maybe if they agree to stock up on Right Guard....


Hey if it wasn't for France we would have lost the revolutionary war and we'd be under British rule and we wouldn't have the Statue of Liberty. We could learn alot from France. Their nuclear power system is one good example.
Why are you so against France? Because they wouldn't support our fake war in Iraq?
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Quoting NRAamy:
Does Beano work for Big Mac emissions? Don't know if Beano works on carnivore gaseous pollution...

that would be no....trust me...I have a bottle of Beano on my desk right now....

:)


TMI TMI TMI
(had a different one, but this one is, errrr, cleaner)
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this past decade is warmest.....OK that's the smoking gun! it's official climate change is here and were all gonna die....only when satellites were put in orbit too is when the clock starts folks remember that
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


You rock, don't care what Grothar says about you (j/k, I agree with him)!


There you go again, Awake, trying to start an argument between me and atmoaggie!! LOL
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Quoting NRAamy:
Does Beano work for Big Mac emissions? Don't know if Beano works on carnivore gaseous pollution...

that would be no....trust me...I have a bottle of Beano on my desk right now....

:)
Silly girl.. of course it does not work if it is sitting on your desk....it is intended to be taken internally to work....j/k
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting StormChaser81:


Thats a really good idea, if the oil companies took profits and started investing into wind power, solar power, and thermal power. Atleast when we do start running out of inexpensive fuel, they would still have the power and good for them if they run the show with clean energy. Im waiting for something to come out that is not slow as h*ll and has huge amounts of money to up keep. If something was available at a decent price Id buy it in a heart beat, but im still waiting and waiting, we have the ideas and prototypes, lets make the one more step and get it to the public.


I mean really, the more i get older the more I feel like American is slowly getting ran over by other countries and im scared to think if that happens what America will be like in 20-30 years from now. I'm glad we dont live to 200 years old becuase you would see a huge change in the way we live. Better or worse, but sadly probably worse.


Unfortunately that is the case. Hopefully the changes in the way we live will be for the better. If all homes and vehicles were powered by solar, wind, or other sources of clean energy it would be a WONDERFUL thing. I don't see us getting there anytime soon mainly because of monetary and political reasons.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


OK, on this one I have to correct you. There is a reason why French perfumes are considered the best (and most expensive) in the world. I don't think I've ever been to a place that was so conscientious about body odor. The smell of perfumes and deodorants there can be overwhelming.

img src=" embed
src="http://media2.sweetimsmiley.com/emoticons/boyflower.swf" wmode="transparent"
loop="true" height="50" width="50"> " />


I repeat...and my Aunt and Uncle lived in Paris for awhile...

Though I would prefer they shower first
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Does Beano work for Big Mac emissions? Don't know if Beano works on carnivore gaseous pollution...

that would be no....trust me...I have a bottle of Beano on my desk right now....

:)
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Quoting StormChaser81:
I have to say the blog is really enjoyable today and we seem to be flowing right along without figure pointing. hopefully it stays this way. I knew we could talk about important issues without bickering.


By George, I think you've got it! Nice post StormChaser81!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
found it.

http://www.climatedepot.com/a/4369/Hurricane-Expert-Rips-Climate-Fears-There-has-been-an-unrelentin g-quarter-century-of-onesided-indoctrination


You rock, don't care what Grothar says about you (j/k, I agree with him)!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.