EPA rules greenhouse gases threaten public health; winter storm pounds U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:03 PM GMT on December 08, 2009

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In a press release yesterday the EPA announced: "After a thorough examination of the scientific evidence and careful consideration of public comments, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced today that greenhouse gases (GHGs) threaten the public health and welfare of the American people. The ruling comes in response to the 2007 U.S. Supreme Court decision that GHGs fit within the Clean Air Act definition of air pollutants, and paves the way for the EPA to regulate CO2 as a pollutant. In the event Congress does not pass legislation to limit greenhouse gas emissions, the EPA now has the power to do that on its own. In the words of the press release, "President Obama and Administrator Jackson have publicly stated that they support a legislative solution to the problem of climate change and Congress. efforts to pass comprehensive climate legislation. However, climate change is threatening public health and welfare, and it is critical that EPA fulfill its obligation to respond to the 2007 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that determined that greenhouse gases fit within the Clean Air Act definition of air pollutants." The first EPA rule to limit CO2 would likely affect cars and light-duty trucks. Over 23% of U.S. greenhouse gases emissions are caused by on-road vehicles. Rules drafted on September 15, 2009, if imposed, would require vehicles sold between 2012 - 2016 to average 35.5 MPG.

Release of hacked emails had "organization and orchestration", UEA official says
Prof Trevor Davies, pro-vice chancellor at the University of East Angelina where the "climategate" hacked email controversy began, said in an interview yesterday: "A lot of people have remarked that it seems an unlikely co-incidence that this happened just before Copenhagen. There are indications that the people who stole this data and documents have had them for some time. They have clearly had the chance to go through them and we have had to check them ourselves. I think from the way that this has mushroomed and the very rapid responses on various blog sites, it seems to me that it has some organization and orchestration".

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the FBI is investigating death threats made against two U.S. climate scientists involved in the emails. Clearly, meteorologists involved in tornado and hurricane chasing are risking their lives in the cause of science, but who would have thought that meteorologists sitting behind a computer crunching numbers would be risking their lives? Crazy life!.

Other posts on the hacked climate change email affair
Don't shoot the messenger
Embattled UK climate scientist steps down
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change summit. His post on the "climategate" affair is one of the more intelligent and diplomatic commentaries I've seen.

Major winter storm blasts the Plains and Western U.S.
Meanwhile, back in North America, it is winter. The season's first widespread heavy snow event is here, with a fierce winter storm that is the pounding the west. The storm will dump heavy snow along a wide swath across a large region of the country, from California to Michigan. The storm brought blizzard conditions and a foot of snow to northern Arizona today. Fierce thunderstorms with winds gusts up to 74 mph hit the Phoenix region, causing widespread tree damage and power outages for 250,000 people. California's Sierra Mountains recorded over 3 feet of snow, and 1 - 3 feet of snow is expected in the mountains of southern Utah and in Colorado. Up to a foot of snow is expected tonight through Wednesday across Kansas, Iowa, southern Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin, with blizzard conditions likely in Iowa.

Some snow amounts from the storm so far (with distances in miles from the city included, where appropriate):

...CALIFORNIA...
ALPINE MEADOWS 42.0
KIRKWOOD 40.0
CISCO 5 ENE 35.0
KINGVALE 1.3 WSW 29.0
HOMEWOOD 2 SE 27.0
PROSSER CREEK RESERVOIR 24.0
FAIR PLAY 2.8 ESE 17.0
PLACERVILLE 2.9 WNW 13.0
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 13.0
VOLCANO 5.4 NE 12.5
GRASS VALLEY 5.5 ESE 11.5
COLFAX 3.1 SW 11.0
ALTA SIERRA 0.4 WSW 10.0
SUSANVILLE 3.2 SSW 8.8
LAKE OF THE PINES 8.0
NEVADA CITY 5.4 W 5.2
FOLSOM 3.4 ESE 0.5
CARMICHAEL 1.4 W 0.3
SACRAMENTO 8.0 NE 0.1

...NEVADA...
HEAVENLY VALLEY 24.0
MT ROSE SKI AREA 23.0
CARSON CITY 1.3 NW 18.0
DAYTON 1.7 SW 13.0
RENO 7.1 N 12.0

...ARIZONA...
FLAGSTAFF 11.6
WILLIAMS 8.0
BELLEMONT 7.2
GRAND CANYON ARPT 3.0

...COLORADO...
DELTA 10.2

...UTAH...
VERDURE 8 WNW 25.0

Next post
My next post will be Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Sorry, just catching up on the blog. Yes Doug, God forbid you have to read anything that shows Al Gore is actually more of a patriot than any of the morons who keep criticizing him for no reason.


I don't dislike Al Gore, in fact, I voted for him in 2000 (you can't blame all of us Floridians, some of us KNOW how to vote), but some elevate the man to sainthood status and that's not right either.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
For those who missed it:

The economics of 350
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Remember . . . The most effective greenhouse gas is - WATER VAPOR.

I suppose they think that is harmful to our health too! Give us a break!

All this nonsense will only deepen the worldwide depression.

I desperately hope Copenhagen falls flat!
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Going downhill now. I think I'll get out before it gets any worse. Night.


Sorry, just catching up on the blog. Yes Doug, God forbid you have to read anything that shows Al Gore is actually more of a patriot than any of the morons who keep criticizing him for no reason.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Big Thumbs up for Dr Gray!


I just got in this morning... What did Dr. Gray do?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
It looks like a nasty day in Florida. Tampa is covered by fog. It's already in the 70's.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Big Thumbs up for Dr Gray!
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Quoting JohnnyJean:
Quoting JohnnyJean:
Lots of climate data now available freely from
UKMO site here:
raw weather station data
have fun!


Sadly, by their own admission, much of the data has been modified.

It is NOT raw by any stretch of the imagination.

Fictional is a better description.
----------------------------------


Ah that is true, it is processed in the sense that it is as close to meaningful as is possible..but its a massive exaggeration to say it is fictional weather ... to be scientifically consistent you have to process data to make it meaningful all observations have biases, too warm or too cold.
some obs are just plain wrong.

In the more tangible world of data assimilation into operational forecast systems, there is an enormous effort
to get rid of data that is simply bad, human error, doddgy kit, bad feeds. Injection of that data into your NWP computer model would make for an awful forecast. There is also known biases in data that need correcting for, again that would play havoc with your forecast.
indeed ... you would probably find if they did not correct the data the urban heat island effect would actually exaggerate the observed warming effect not the other way around.

so yes i apologise my post was misleading the data is not at all raw, but the true raw data is as good as useless without knowing how to correct for it , the data released is as close to meaningful data as your going to get realistically.
if the data happened to say the trend was the opposite I'm betting there would be very few complaints :P
their explanations look pretty fair,
they do try to answer many many questions , the coverage is not bad, it ain't perfect and they try to answer those imperfections, but nothing is perfect in the observational world :-)
far from it!

i guess your essentially questioning the correction process, well that is why it has to go to independent review. and that is why the fact the it is good to have a number of different such data sets and that each of these go to the review process. If the independent analysis of the data seriously diverged then there would be a serious problem, but thus far they don't.

The other issues is the calculation of the error bars!, that's no mean feat neither people
seem to forget that aspect :-)

again I apologise for dealing in absolutes, the word raw is very wrong. But it could be replaced with reasonable :P

Nicely put, and thanks for taking the time and for being so thoughtful.

In the final analysis, the raw data, with all its warts and carbuncles must be preserved, and that exact same data must be available for any and all who wish to have it.

If there are flaws in the data, then clarify those flaws and describe what possible solutions there might be to deal with them. This idea that is okay to rush headlong into making corrections is just dumb.

Make the graphs and all those pretty drawings, they can adjust copies of the data all they want, just don't alter the 'original' data in any way.

I cannot blame you for assuming the data was raw, after all that is the inference they intended when they presented the data in the first place. Only by digging deeper into their notes at the bottom of the page does one find that the data was not raw. They counted on the sheep not looking and the sheepdogs, well they don't count.


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SQUAK 633,
I'm looking at the drought blob in southern California and remember the Polar Express hit there recently (a northern pinapple express)that caused flash flooding. When the rivers in that crescent are above their 75% flow and some above 90% and it is classed a sever drought? What am I missing?

Water vapor is the biggest greenhouse gas, the one that traps the most heat, right? Now congress is calling THAT a pollutant? Either I need to get a better definition or Congress needs to be more specific.
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The following commentary is by Atmospheric Scientist and Hurricane forecasting specialist Dr. William Gray. Gray is the renowned hurricane forecaster and Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU).

Puncturing the Climate Balloon

By Dr. Bill Gray

December 8, 2009


Had I not devoted my entire career of over half-a-century to the study and forecasting of meteorological and climate events I would have likely been concerned over the possibility of humans causing serious global climate degradation.

There has been an unrelenting quarter century of one-sided indoctrination of the western world by the media and by various scientists and governments concerning a coming carbon dioxide (CO_2 ) induced global warming disaster. These warming scenarios have been orchestrated by a combination of environmentalists, vested interest scientists wanting larger federal grants and publicity, the media which profits from doomsday scenario reporting, governmental bureaucrats who want more power over our lives, and socialists who want to level-out global living standards. These many alarmist groups appear to have little concern over whether their global warming prognostications are accurate, however. And they most certainly are not. The alarmists believe they will be able to scare enough of our citizens into believing their propaganda that the public will be willing to follow their advice on future energy usage and agree to a lowering of their standard of living in the name of climate salvation.

Rising levels of CO_2 are not near the threat these alarmists have portrayed them to be. There has yet to be a honest and broad scientific debate on the basic science of CO_2 's influence on global temperature. The global climate models predicting large amounts of global warming for a doubling of CO_2 are badly flawed. They should never have been used to establish government climate policy.

The last century's global warming of about 1 degree F is not a consequence of human activities. This warming is primarily the result of a multi-century changes in the globe's deep ocean circulation. These ocean current changes have lead to a small and gradual increase in the globe's temperature. We are coming out of the Little Ice Age and into a generally warmer climate state. This is akin to the warmer global climate of the Medieval Period. We can do nothing but adapt to such long period natural temperature changes.

The recent 'ClimateGate' revelations coming out of the UK University of East Anglia are but the tip of a giant iceberg of a well organized international climate warming conspiracy that has been gathering momentum for the last 25 years. This conspiracy would become much more manifest if all the e-mails of the publically funded climate research groups of the US and of foreign governments were ever made public.

The disastrous economic consequences of restricting CO_2 emissions from the present by as much as 20 percent by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050 (as being proposed in Copenhagen) have yet to be digested by the general public. Such CO_2 output decreases would cause very large increases in our energy costs, a lowering of our standard of living, and do nothing of significance to improve our climate.

The Cap-and-Trade bill presently before Congress, the likely climate agreements coming out of the Copenhagen Conference, and the EPA's just announced decision to treat CO_2 as a pollutant represents a grave threat to the industrial world's continued economic development. We should not allow these proposals to restrict our economic growth. Any United Nations climate bill our country might sign would act as an infringement on our country's sovereignty.

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Good morning. While my relatives and friends up north are getting clobbered, we're looking at potential record highs of 86/87 here today and tomorrow, two weeks before Christmas. Link
Margaritanog, anyone?
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Good Morning...
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Good Morning,
It's a windy day on Cape Fear NC

CORMP ILM2 Wrightsville Beach Nearshore, NC
Last update: 6:01 AM EST on 12/9
Air Temperature: 66.7 deg F
Wind From Direction: SSW (210 deg from N)
Wind Speed: 33.3 mph (29.0 knots)
Wind Gust: 45.4 mph (39.5 knots)
Air Pressure: 1004.8 mb
Significant Wave Height: 7.94 feet
Dominant Wave Period: 8.33 seconds
Significant Wave To Direction: 141 deg from N
Average Wave Period: 6.13 seconds
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Hang on, it is gonna get interesting.

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631. IKE
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 802
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

TORNADO WATCH 802 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC059-131-091400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0802.091209T0930Z-091209T1400Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HOLMES WALTON
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
630. IKE
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Bit nippy over there.


Definitely not a good time to go for a jog.

Global cooling?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
Denver, Colorado (Airport)
Updated: 56 min 0 sec ago
Clear
-13 °F

Clear
Windchill: -31 °F
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: -18 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the SSE
Pressure: 30.08 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 5430 ft


Bit nippy over there.
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628. IKE
Denver, Colorado (Airport)
Updated: 56 min 0 sec ago
Clear
-13 °F

Clear
Windchill: -31 °F
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: -18 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the SSE
Pressure: 30.08 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 5430 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting JohnnyJean:
Lots of climate data now available freely from
UKMO site here:
raw weather station data
have fun!


Sadly, by their own admission, much of the data has been modified.

It is NOT raw by any stretch of the imagination.

Fictional is a better description.
----------------------------------


Ah that is true, it is processed in the sense that it is as close to meaningful as is possible..but its a massive exaggeration to say it is fictional weather ... to be scientifically consistent you have to process data to make it meaningful all observations have biases, too warm or too cold.
some obs are just plain wrong.

In the more tangible world of data assimilation into operational forecast systems, there is an enormous effort
to get rid of data that is simply bad, human error, doddgy kit, bad feeds. Injection of that data into your NWP computer model would make for an awful forecast. There is also known biases in data that need correcting for, again that would play havoc with your forecast.
indeed ... you would probably find if they did not correct the data the urban heat island effect would actually exaggerate the observed warming effect not the other way around.

so yes i apologise my post was misleading the data is not at all raw, but the true raw data is as good as useless without knowing how to correct for it , the data released is as close to meaningful data as your going to get realistically.
if the data happened to say the trend was the opposite I'm betting there would be very few complaints :P
their explanations look pretty fair,
they do try to answer many many questions , the coverage is not bad, it ain't perfect and they try to answer those imperfections, but nothing is perfect in the observational world :-)
far from it!

i guess your essentially questioning the correction process, well that is why it has to go to independent review. and that is why the fact the it is good to have a number of different such data sets and that each of these go to the review process. If the independent analysis of the data seriously diverged then there would be a serious problem, but thus far they don't.

The other issues is the calculation of the error bars!, that's no mean feat neither people
seem to forget that aspect :-)

again I apologise for dealing in absolutes, the word raw is very wrong. But it could be replaced with reasonable :P



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28.97in, 981mb

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28.99in, 982mb,

this is one hell of a system
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Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
NCC061-090830-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0033.091209T0751Z-091209T0830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
251 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
DUPLIN COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...WALLACE...

* UNTIL 330 AM EST

* AT 248 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES WEST OF
ROSE HILL...OR 18 MILES WEST OF WALLACE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROSE HILL BY 310 AM EST...
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WARSAW BY 315 AM EST...
KENANSVILLE BY 325 AM EST...
7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KORNEGAY AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEULAVILLE
BY 330 AM EST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1-800-889-6889...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3489 7815 3503 7816 3517 7794 3515 7790
3517 7784 3514 7778 3511 7775 3501 7775
3500 7773 3475 7769 3471 7799 3472 7801
3471 7814 3474 7819
TIME...MOT...LOC 0750Z 241DEG 32KT 3480 7829

$$
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982mb now
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Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Dec 9, 1:54 am EST

Fog/Mist

42 °F
(6 °C)
Humidity: 85 %
Wind Speed: SE 7 MPH
Barometer: 29.09" (985.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 38 °F (3 °C)
Wind Chill: 38 °F (3 °C)
Visibility: 4.00 mi.
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I find it quite interesting that the EPA says greenhouses gases are dangerous, yet 3 days after 9/11, they said the air was safe to breathe in NYC. There were untold amounts of mercury and asbestos still floating in the air weeks after the attacks. Just something to put out there. The gases shouldn't be igorned, though. Climate change is a serious matter.
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my pressure is 984mb now
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya see the comma thats the centre trackin 48 degrees towards the ne


got it, it might track right over me, that would bring some impressive pressure here
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ya see the comma thats the centre trackin 48 degrees towards the ne
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The temperature at Evansville at noon was 38, now it is 55
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
she bottoms out at 976 mb a powerhouse something wicked this way comes


where is the low centered?

I'm assuming that is where the lowest pressure is
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Quoting tornadodude:
my pressure is now 986MB, or 29.10 pa
she bottoms out at 976 mb a powerhouse something wicked this way comes
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my pressure is now 986MB, or 29.10 pa
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my pressure here fell 2.3 MB in the last hour
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Possibly not a good sailing day ;)


true that!
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Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Dec 8, 11:54 pm EST

Light Rain Fog/Mist

38 °F
(3 °C)
Humidity: 86 %
Wind Speed: E 14 MPH
Barometer: 29.24" (990.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 34 °F (1 °C)
Wind Chill: 30 °F (-1 °C)
Visibility: 2.50 mi.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I hope you get some snow :)

Amazingly, at 8 am Jan 26 1978 there was a 33 mb pressure difference between West Lafayette, IN and Detroit, much closer.

Check out the visibilities at Lafayette that day.

Link

Link


thats just simply incredible
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Ich wundere mich, wo Grothar für die meisten des Tages gewesen ist. Ist Kopenhagen 50% unterhalb des Meeresspiegels?
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Hey its not even Winter yet...This is just late Fall weather.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Tornadodude, I think you would have had fun watching this the night the white hurricane passed by with a pressure of 28.28" @ Cleveland. At 4 am that day there was a 30 mb pressure difference between Lafayette, IN and Cleveland, OH.

Link


wow that is impressive!

I really am hoping for some snow tomorrow, the GFS shows that I will get some snow, but we will see
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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