Embattled UK climate scientist steps down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on December 03, 2009

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The embattled director of the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (CRU), Dr. Phil Jones, announced that he will be temporarily standing aside as director. An independent review of his conduct in light of the emails illegally hacked from his computers last month is in progress. In a press release, Professor Jones said: "What is most important is that CRU continues its world leading research with as little interruption and diversion as possible. After a good deal of consideration I have decided that the best way to achieve this is by stepping aside from the Director's role during the course of the independent review and am grateful to the University for agreeing to this. The Review process will have my full support".

The University and the police are investigating the break-in, and it is currently unknown if this was the act of an insider or an external break-in. I think it is highly unlikely this was the work of an insider in a whistle-blower type of action, since a computer at realclimate.org was hacked into the same week (via a computer in Turkey), and the criminal attempted to upload the emails stolen from CRU to the realclimate.org server. This is not the sort of action a whistleblower would do. Dr. Gavin Schmidt of realclimate.org said in a comment yesterday that the CRU break-in appeared to have been done from the outside, into a backup mail server. It is unlikely the hacker acted alone, since hackers aren't typically intimately familiar with the details of the climate change science debate. The emails and code stolen were selectively culled by someone who appeared to have considerable expertise in climate science.

What did Dr. Jones do wrong?
So, what did Dr. Jones do wrong? For starters, he should have confronted the allegations raised by his critics immediately and talked candidly to the press about some of the specific accusations being made. For example, one of the emails contained the statement that he would like to "redefine what the peer-reviewed literature is" to exclude two questionable papers from the IPCC report. Well, that's not something a good scientist should seriously advocate, and is an impossibility, in any case. No one can redefine the peer-reviewed literature, since the rules for this are well-established an not subject to change. When I read the comment in the context it was made, it reads as a joke. There is no discussion in the hacked emails about how to go about redefining the peer-reviewed literature. In the end, the two papers Jones was referring to with this comment, McKitrick and Michaels (2004) and Kalnay and Cai (2003), ended up being cited and discussed in Chapter 2 of the IPCC AR4 report. Those intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming are spinning the comment differently, creating a controversy about something that is impossible to do, and was not being seriously suggested. Jones should have immediately spoken up to quash the hype on this comment.

The "trick" to "hide the decline"
Another area of concern is over a graph Dr. Jones helped construct in 1999 showing the "hockey stick" of Earth's surface temperature going back 1,000 years. This graph combined instrumental measurements made since the 1800s with older paleoclimate data (including data from tree rings) to show a continuous 1,000 year record of Earth's temperatures. The paleoclimate data after 1960 show a bogus decline in Earth's temperatures that does not agree with what modern thermometers have been measuring, due to a well-known variation in tree ring thickness as a function of time, referred to as "the decline". Thus, Jones elected to toss out the bogus paleoclimate data (using a "trick" to "hide the decline") rather than present it in the graph. The graph was not properly labeled to show this was done, so viewers of the graph would have had needed to be familiar with a 1998 paper published in Nature or the 1999 paper referenced in the caption on the graph, which explained this well-known data issue. The graph that Jones used his "trick" on was put into a 1999 report called the "WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate". The report was given to policy makers, but was never published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. No reputable climate scientist believes that the paleoclimate data since 1960 is of higher quality than the instrumental record (this is discussed in detail in Chapter 6 of the 2007 IPCC report). In order to make the "hokey stick" graph less confusing, removing "the decline" from the tree ring data is a reasonable thing to do--provided one labels the graph properly. The graph was not properly labeled. Does Jones' "trick" and failure to properly label the graph constitute data falsification, or was it merely sloppy science? The hacked emails contain no suggestions that the "trick" was done to intentionally fool people, and the "trick" never appeared in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, including the IPCC reports. In Dr. Jones' words, "This is well-known and is called the "decline" or "divergence". The use of the term "hiding the decline" was in an email written in haste. CRU has not sought to hide the decline. Indeed, CRU has published a number of articles that both illustrate, and discuss the implications of, this recent tree-ring decline, including the article that is listed in the legend of the WMO Statement figure".




Figure 1. The WMO 1999 "hockey stick" figure (top) with climate reconstructions and instrumental temperatures merged, and a version (bottom) with the climate reconstructions (coloured) and instrumental temperatures (annual & summer in black) shown separately. Note "the decline" in the temperature obtained from tree ring data (green curve) in the bottom curve. Image credit: University of East Anglia.

Global warming contrarians are spinning the "trick" as reason to discredit the "hockey stick", claiming that the data was falsified to hide the fact that tree rings were telling the real story. Since the hockey stick was falsified, some claim, the entire science behind human-caused global warming needs to be questioned. This is plain ludicrous. The graph was never published in a scientific journal. Several updated versions of the "hockey stick" graph have been published in the ten years since the disputed graph was produced, and the "hockey stick" can be reproduced in essentially the same form excluding the controversial tree rings, using other paleoclimate data such as boreholes (See Mann et al., 2008, Figure 2). Furthermore, the peer-reviewed science supporting human-caused global warming is not based solely upon the "hockey stick" and the CRU data used for the last 150 years of the hockey stick graph. There are three separate data sets of global temperatures maintained by NASA, the CRU, and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, that all show essentially the same global warming. We also have evidence from nature herself in the form of plants and animals expanding their ranges poleward, the record loss of Arctic sea ice in 2007 and record loss of multi-year Arctic sea ice this year, the shrinking of mountain glaciers, reductions in the length of freeze season in many Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers, the shifting of spring blooms earlier in most regions of the world, and on and on and on. Again, Jones should have spoken up immediately to kill the ridiculous hype being pushed by global warming contrarians about the importance of a 10-year old graph that is now scientifically irrelevant, and was never published.


Figure 2. The "hockey stick" of global temperature anomalies since 300 A.D., as published in a 2008 paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Mann et al.. Even if one excludes tree rings (blue curve), the hockey stick looks the same.

Resistance to releasing data to other researchers
The hacked emails also show that Dr. Jones resisted releasing his data to contrarians and urged others to delete emails regarding Freedom Of Information (FOI) related requests. Many countries protect their weather data under an international agreement called World Meteorological Organization Resolution 40, which prohibits the data from being made public (this is why wunderground can't give out the UKMET model forecasts on our web site, for example). About 5% of the CRU data fell in that category, making release illegal. However, deleting emails related to FOI requests is inadvisable and implies one has something to hide. The investigation should certainly pursue the issue of whether Dr. Jones properly handled the requests to turn over his data to outside researchers. Ideally, weather data documenting Earth's climate history should be free to everyone on the planet (I am not a big fan of WMO Resolution 40). However, another aspect to this issue is the time it takes for the scientists involved to prepare the data for release. Large, complicated data sets require extensive documentation and access to related computer codes in order to process them, and making the data available to every amateur investigator interested in the data puts an unfair burden on the scientists who maintain the data sets. In particular, an amateur climate science investigator named Stephen McIntyre, who runs the web site Climate Audit, has created such an issue. McIntyre, a retired mining executive and an investor, is not a professional scientist, but has been successful identifying several technical errors made in the published literature. He has also generated a huge amount of misleading and incorrect information over the years, and has done a tremendous amount of damage to the understanding of climate science. McIntyre is intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming--presumably for ideological reasons, since he has no obvious ties to the fossil fuel industry--and has generated a large number of Freedom of Information requests to further his cause. One of the hacked emails, from Dr. Ben Santer, complained that McIntyre's FOI requests were intrusive and unreasonable with no scientific justification or explanation given, and appeared to be a calculated strategy to divert Santer's attention and focus away from research. It's worth reading Santer's reaction to the hacked email affair to learn more. Given such tactics by McIntyre, Dr. Jones' resistance to FOI requests from McIntyre is understandable, but appears to have been poorly handled.

The science of human-caused global warming remains unaffected
None of the hacked emails reveal any conspiracy to publish falsified or "fudged" material in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. The science of human-caused global warming will require no revision as a result of this affair. Baseless accusations of fraud, data manipulation, and conspiracy against climate change scientists stemming from the hacked emails are being massively hyped by the Manufactured Doubt industry in an effort to discredit climate scientists, since no flaw with the science can be found. Most of the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad, so if you can create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion, you can win--or at least buy time, lots of it. The hacked email affair is all about politics, not science. Dr. Jones is an excellent scientist, but unfortunately was over-matched as a politician. It was hardly a fair fight--one scientist against the political might of the mightiest PR campaign against science ever waged, armed with some selectively culled stolen emails taken out of context.

Other posts in this series
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Next post
I'm working on a post called, "Don't shoot the messenger", and plan to run this Sunday or Monday.

Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, will be in Copenhagen for Monday's start to the crucial COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. Be sure to tune into his blog for updates on the talks. Wunderground has provided financial support for several University of Michigan students to attend the talks, and I may be featuring portions of their blogs over the coming weeks.

Jeff Masters

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1525. gwhite713
8:05 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
Awesome storm considering how far south and the fact that Houston managed to measurable snows two years in a row in early December does fall in line with a "cooling" planet. In the city of Maryville in TN where i lived, we recorded nearly 3 inches this am.. I've lived here for 30 years and i can't recall when we had a early dec snowfall that was this big, well, big for us =).
Member Since: December 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
1524. alaina1085
3:14 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:

wow,,,, great pics.... btw hey long time no chat

Thanks. Yea I keep busy with school and work.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
1523. PcolaDan
3:14 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
NEW BLOG
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1522. SQUAWK
3:14 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
NEW BLOG===== NEW BLOG===== NEW BLOG===== NEW BLOG===== NEW BLOG===== NEW BLOG===== NEW BLOG===== NEW BLOG===== NEW BLOG===== NEW BLOG===== NEW BLOG===== NEW BLOG=====
Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
1521. hydrus
3:13 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
We have an inch and a half of snow on the ground here on the Cumberland plateau. Some places have more.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21026
1520. AussieStorm
3:12 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting alaina1085:
Just wanted to share some photos of our snow event here in Ascension Parish. No snow accumulated on the ground but it was coming down and quite a sight to see! My 2 year old loved it.





wow,,,, great pics.... btw hey long time no chat
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1519. alaina1085
3:08 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
Just wanted to share some photos of our snow event here in Ascension Parish. No snow accumulated on the ground but it was coming down and quite a sight to see! My 2 year old loved it.




Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
1518. hydrus
3:08 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting leftovers:
no big deal over here in e cen florida maybe a inch of slow steady rain the last 24 hrs the snook were hitting last nigt
Snook, makes me think of loaded snook sandwichs and homemade onion rings. I need my fishing rod out of storage.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21026
1517. calusakat
3:08 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
"The protests come as the Met Office prepares to publish the raw figures it uses to assess man-made global warming."

Define RAW.

Does that mean it is directly from the instrumentation or does it mean from the scientist who compiled the data and possibly modified it prior to its release.

Important definition there folks.
Member Since: October 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 716
1516. atmoaggie
3:07 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


In my day, parallelism had a slightly different connotation is application than in structure as used today. In its earlier usage is was a way of approaching a main problem and breaking it down into lesser problems and then solved in a parallel manner. We would burn up our early machines. LOL. I believe today it is more of feature of the processors. Don't forget, in my date we had to run from room to room to operate them. I won't tell you the year, but let us say Ed Sullivan was already an old man.

Undoubtedly, that is the true definition. And is still what is being done.
A multithreaded function that takes advantage of the 2 cores in this laptop and something like WRF running on 256 cores in a Linux cluster are still really still doing just what you describe. They both are breaking down a problem into smaller pieces and then running computation on the portion assigned...with some inter-processor communication at the boundaries (figuratively in the case of a multithreaded application, literally in the case of a weather model).

I wrote this last night, but my router kept kicking me off for some reason, and I was just tired enough to decide on calling it a night.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1515. AussieStorm
3:05 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Aussie. Looks like a pretty fat blob, doesn't it? Am sure plants and animals along Alligator Alley will welcome a burst of H20; you know, The Everglades.

Yeah that blob between Fla and Cuba looks mean. but the cloud over the GOMEX looks very cold
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1514. Chicklit
3:02 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
Hi Aussie. Looks like a pretty fat blob, doesn't it? Am sure plants and animals along Alligator Alley will welcome a burst of H20; you know, The Everglades.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11280
1512. AussieStorm
2:56 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting Chicklit:

umm...look to your west. there is something coming your way. Low will be 61 by tonight.

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-052000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-910 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEST COAST BEACHES TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS, TORNADOES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER MOVE INSIDE UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED BY. THERE IS ALSO A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST TODAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

TORNADOES: THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WEAK TORNADOES.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BECAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.


Looking at that image.... wow, look at the cold air/clouds
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1511. Chicklit
2:55 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
I'm sorry jipmig, looks like your low will be 56 tonight! MIAMIWUWEATHER
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11280
1510. Chicklit
2:46 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting jipmg:
its 81 in miami.. and its in the freaking 30s behind the front.. how in the world do we not have a load of storms erupting all over the place

umm...look to your west. there is something coming your way. Low will be 61 by tonight.

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-052000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-910 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEST COAST BEACHES TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS, TORNADOES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER MOVE INSIDE UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED BY. THERE IS ALSO A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST TODAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

TORNADOES: THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WEAK TORNADOES.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BECAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11280
1509. Magicchaos
2:20 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
It snowing here in Everett,PA got a covering so far.
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
1508. jipmg
1:54 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
its 81 in miami.. and its in the freaking 30s behind the front.. how in the world do we not have a load of storms erupting all over the place
1507. BahaHurican
1:21 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
Morning all. Quick look-in to say on the warm side of the latest cold front, it still feels like late summer here. Already 82 degrees, and it's not even 9 a.m. yet..... Great beach weather.

Have a good one all.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
1505. ShenValleyFlyFish
1:11 PM GMT on December 05, 2009
Rain mixed with frozen bird droppings falling here in central Shenandoah Valley. Afton Mt/Rockfish Gap clear @0700. Starting to stick to trees etc. Appears more intense to west. Kids excited. Be safe all.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1504. unf97
11:52 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Thanks aquak9!

Yes, I hope to havew a great time here in NC this weekend.

Yeah, it was 50 degrees at raining at my home back in Jax when I left late yesterday afternoon. This same weather will be with me up here most of today, but it will be sunny tomorrow, but cold.

Take Care! I will be back home on Monday.

Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1503. surfmom
11:25 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Good morning, trying to see what the day will be like for me.... as always the weather dictates in my world..

Well today for breakfast I'm served 68 degrees, light wind and a good amount of stormy rain on the way here in SWFL.

Looks like the polo game has be canceled, too wet, muddy and slippery (horses can slip and slide on wet grass)and the incoming weather will be bring more rain (not good for saddles and gear to get wet).... still got to go out and check them over - so the morning will be mud, muck and a big yellow raincoat.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1502. aquak9
11:15 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
g'morning WU- bloggers

hi unf, sorry if I missed ya. Enjoy your trip.

Wet and wet here in Jax.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25851
1501. unf97
11:05 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Good morning!

I hope all of my fellow bloggers out in SE TX, and much of Louisiana enjoyed the historic snow event yesterday and much of the overnight. I browsed the blog here early this morning and really enjoyed seeing the beautiful pictures of the event. GFS really did a great job forecasting this snow event this week. I havenlt checked the final snowfall accumulative totals, but I am confident that areas in Southeast Texas, especially the interior areas at or just north of Houston probably had totals in the 2-4 inch range. There were also some decent snow reports in and around SW Louisiana as well.
I am up here in Charlotte, NC for the weekend. Currently here at 6 a.m. NWS at Charlotte/Douglas International Airport 44 degrees with light rain and drizzle. They are expecting decent snow accumulations up in the Appalachian mountain chain today as this Low pressure system heads northeast bound. No snow expected here today, just a cold, raw rainy day with temps expected to stay in the low 40s all day long. Temps will fall to the upper 20s here by tomorrow morning.

Have a great weekend everyone.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1500. JohnnyJean
9:59 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
UKMO to deal severe blow to contrarians:


Met office to release ALL RAW climate data
uugh annoying bbc have changed this story to focus on stupid protests , that is not the interesting bit, the interesting bit is now near the end of that article

anyways, UKMO does not publish often but when it does it seems to matter:
Geophysical ranking by paper citation not raw number

This should remove one of the largest arguments of contrarians.
I love skeptism but I'm skeptical in the extreme of contrarians! They bring little to the argument, usually bad science and highly selective cherry picking of data.

They jury is definitely out on ACC, but more on its degree, rather than its existence. The IPCC is likely to have underestimated its effects in order to get consensus and avoid over doing alarmism, which is is fair enough.

Oh a interesting non U.S. weather story: Ireland is wet right? Imagine it 2-3 times wetter than normal:
http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/nov09.pdf
!
Sadly that has caused extensive flooding accross Ireland.

1498. SunriseSteeda
9:45 AM GMT on December 05, 2009

Fort Lauderdale, FL
71.8 °F
Thunder
4:43am

Quoting btwntx08:
Brownsville, TX
32.6 °F
Clear

Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
1495. AussieStorm
9:11 AM GMT on December 05, 2009




Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1494. SunriseSteeda
8:55 AM GMT on December 05, 2009

Goodness, I am flashing back to a final exam in Software Engineering I had today. It also capped a 13-week distributed collaborative software engineering project that combine classes at Florida Atlantic University, San Francisco State University and University of Fulda (Germany).... using tools like Subversion, ROSE, etc.

But to get to the point, as a 20+ yr software developer myself, any email that I have ever sent or received that included actual source code was only a "release" or "official" if explicitly mentioned in the email.

Quoting Xyrus2000:


Nice try, but the person who analyzed that code did not do so correctly.

First, code comments without context is useless. The decline could very well (and if the numbers are correct, probably does) represent the paleoclimate issue Dr. Masters is talking about.

Now let's take some other things into account. Where did this code come from? Was it final code? Was it a calibration to ensure that the algortihm was correct? Where is the rest of it? Was it used? Was it a final or interim version?

It was an attachment to an email. There is absolutely no way to glean anything meaningful from it, other than it was a piece of code someone was working on.

Any software developer will have a project in various stages of readiness, and I very very highly doubt that any program being exchanged over EMAIL is going to be anything other than a discussion piece.

Remember, this was an email server that was hacked, not a repository. This code wasn't pulled out of CVS, Subversion, GIT, or any other code management system. It was an attachment, like all the other in-progress documents that are to be found with the emails and , at best, should be viewed from that standpoint. Worst case, the code was manipulated by the hacker(s).

~X~
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
1493. GBguy88
8:07 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting xcool:
weatherman874 . snow.and sleet


Where are you located?
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
1491. tornadodude
7:52 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


They only sell Urge in 1.5L bottles, that is more than 50oz. Sorry, the Dude has to go himself and brave the snow and cold.


haha I would love to go get some, but a plane trip to Norway is quite expensive, especially for us college kids!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
1490. tornadodude
7:50 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
FLC061-093-111-050830-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0026.091205T0744Z-091205T0830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
244 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SEBASTIAN...WINTER BEACH...WABASSO...
VERO BEACH SOUTH...VERO BEACH...SEBASTIAN INLET...INDIAN RIVER
SHORES...GIFFORD...
EAST CENTRAL OKEECHOBEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FORT DRUM...
NORTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 330 AM EST.

* AT 243 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FORT DRUM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SOUTH
BEACH...VERO LAKE ESTATES AND SEBASTIAN INLET RECREATION

THE IMMEDIATE DANGER OF A TORNADO IS HIGH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS
DEVELOPING TORNADO ARE URGED TO QUICKLY PREPARE FOR ITS APPROACH.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! ACT NOW AS SECONDS CAN SAVE LIVES!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 2761 8036 2760 8037 2736 8074 2749 8087
2784 8047 2771 8040 2775 8040 2777 8042
2784 8046 2786 8044 2768 8035 2769 8035
2762 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 229DEG 21KT 2749 8072

$$







Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
1489. AussieStorm
7:30 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1488. TheCaneWhisperer
7:15 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Here we go!

000
WFUS52 KMFL 050713
TORMFL
FLC021-050800-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0007.091205T0713Z-091205T0800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
213 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 300 AM EST

* AT 209 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER COUNTY A FEW MILES NORTH OF US
41 JUST NORTHWEST OF OASIS RANGER STATION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER COUNTY
RURAL EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF A TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY
BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS AND WINDOWS.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT BECAUSE THEY ARE HARD TO
SEE. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT
MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR
REINFORCED SHELTER. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM EST SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2613 8088 2592 8088 2586 8107 2597 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0711Z 243DEG 18KT 2592 8109

$$

BAXTER

1487. TheCaneWhisperer
7:13 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Should get a tornado warning soon in the Everglades city area


1486. Xyrus2000
7:10 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting bear55:
The Proof Behind the CRU Climategate Debacle: Because Computers Do Lie When Humans Tell Them To


Nice try, but the person who analyzed that code did not do so correctly.

First, code comments without context is useless. The decline could very well (and if the numbers are correct, probably does) represent the paleoclimate issue Dr. Masters is talking about.

Now let's take some other things into account. Where did this code come from? Was it final code? Was it a calibration to ensure that the algortihm was correct? Where is the rest of it? Was it used? Was it a final or interim version?

It was an attachment to an email. There is absolutely no way to glean anything meaningful from it, other than it was a piece of code someone was working on.

Any software developer will have a project in various stages of readiness, and I very very highly doubt that any program being exchanged over EMAIL is going to be anything other than a discussion piece.

Remember, this was an email server that was hacked, not a repository. This code wasn't pulled out of CVS, Subversion, GIT, or any other code management system. It was an attachment, like all the other in-progress documents that are to be found with the emails and , at best, should be viewed from that standpoint. Worst case, the code was manipulated by the hacker(s).

~X~
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1474
1485. TheCaneWhisperer
7:08 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Should get a tornado warning soon in the Everglades city area
1484. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:58 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
<
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53565
1483. xcool
6:56 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
weatherman874 . snow.and sleet
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
1482. weatherman874
6:53 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting xcool:
weatherman874 did you seeing any sleet-ice?


Yes yes about 1-2hours of it, yyou?
Member Since: May 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
1481. xcool
6:49 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
weatherman874 did you seeing any sleet-ice?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
1480. xcool
6:48 AM GMT on December 05, 2009

33.2°F
Switch to Celsius
6
mphSo Far Today
Lo: 33°F Rain: N/A" Hi: 33°F Gust: NNW 14 Wind Chill: 28°F
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 33°F
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
1479. weatherman874
6:48 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting Patrap:
What a frigging wild day atmo..LOL

A Lil Spritz Uptown Now Snow Sleet Mix.


Pat, saw lots of sleet/ice pellets here in lakeview..no real snow though
Member Since: May 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
1478. TheCaneWhisperer
6:47 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
500-700 Is still dry as a bone.


X4 57 dBZ 14,000 ft. 24 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 27 knots WSW (242)
2 S1 55 dBZ 14,000 ft. 16 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 27 knots SW (230)
2 G9 54 dBZ 14,000 ft. 16 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 21 knots SW (218)
2 F5 49 dBZ 16,000 ft. 8 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 21 knots WSW (243)
2 H1 48 dBZ 13,000 ft. 7 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 27 knots SW (232)
2 H4 47 dBZ 15,000 ft. 7 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 37 knots SSW (209)
2 Z4 46 dBZ 12,000 ft. 6 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. New Cell
2 B6 41 dBZ 11,000 ft. 3 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 78 knots SW (219)
2 R5 38 dBZ 11,000 ft. 2 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. New Cell
2 P6 37 dBZ 12,000 ft. 1 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. New Cell
2 K6 36 dBZ 12,000 ft. 1 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 60 knots SW (225)
2 P5 34 dBZ 11,000 ft. 1 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 27 knots SW (232)
1477. xcool
6:43 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Grothar yeah very tired ;)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
1476. Grothar
6:40 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
Quoting xcool:
yay ilove snow


xcool, you still up?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26014
1475. xcool
6:39 AM GMT on December 05, 2009
yay ilove snow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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