Embattled UK climate scientist steps down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on December 03, 2009

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The embattled director of the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (CRU), Dr. Phil Jones, announced that he will be temporarily standing aside as director. An independent review of his conduct in light of the emails illegally hacked from his computers last month is in progress. In a press release, Professor Jones said: "What is most important is that CRU continues its world leading research with as little interruption and diversion as possible. After a good deal of consideration I have decided that the best way to achieve this is by stepping aside from the Director's role during the course of the independent review and am grateful to the University for agreeing to this. The Review process will have my full support".

The University and the police are investigating the break-in, and it is currently unknown if this was the act of an insider or an external break-in. I think it is highly unlikely this was the work of an insider in a whistle-blower type of action, since a computer at realclimate.org was hacked into the same week (via a computer in Turkey), and the criminal attempted to upload the emails stolen from CRU to the realclimate.org server. This is not the sort of action a whistleblower would do. Dr. Gavin Schmidt of realclimate.org said in a comment yesterday that the CRU break-in appeared to have been done from the outside, into a backup mail server. It is unlikely the hacker acted alone, since hackers aren't typically intimately familiar with the details of the climate change science debate. The emails and code stolen were selectively culled by someone who appeared to have considerable expertise in climate science.

What did Dr. Jones do wrong?
So, what did Dr. Jones do wrong? For starters, he should have confronted the allegations raised by his critics immediately and talked candidly to the press about some of the specific accusations being made. For example, one of the emails contained the statement that he would like to "redefine what the peer-reviewed literature is" to exclude two questionable papers from the IPCC report. Well, that's not something a good scientist should seriously advocate, and is an impossibility, in any case. No one can redefine the peer-reviewed literature, since the rules for this are well-established an not subject to change. When I read the comment in the context it was made, it reads as a joke. There is no discussion in the hacked emails about how to go about redefining the peer-reviewed literature. In the end, the two papers Jones was referring to with this comment, McKitrick and Michaels (2004) and Kalnay and Cai (2003), ended up being cited and discussed in Chapter 2 of the IPCC AR4 report. Those intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming are spinning the comment differently, creating a controversy about something that is impossible to do, and was not being seriously suggested. Jones should have immediately spoken up to quash the hype on this comment.

The "trick" to "hide the decline"
Another area of concern is over a graph Dr. Jones helped construct in 1999 showing the "hockey stick" of Earth's surface temperature going back 1,000 years. This graph combined instrumental measurements made since the 1800s with older paleoclimate data (including data from tree rings) to show a continuous 1,000 year record of Earth's temperatures. The paleoclimate data after 1960 show a bogus decline in Earth's temperatures that does not agree with what modern thermometers have been measuring, due to a well-known variation in tree ring thickness as a function of time, referred to as "the decline". Thus, Jones elected to toss out the bogus paleoclimate data (using a "trick" to "hide the decline") rather than present it in the graph. The graph was not properly labeled to show this was done, so viewers of the graph would have had needed to be familiar with a 1998 paper published in Nature or the 1999 paper referenced in the caption on the graph, which explained this well-known data issue. The graph that Jones used his "trick" on was put into a 1999 report called the "WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate". The report was given to policy makers, but was never published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. No reputable climate scientist believes that the paleoclimate data since 1960 is of higher quality than the instrumental record (this is discussed in detail in Chapter 6 of the 2007 IPCC report). In order to make the "hokey stick" graph less confusing, removing "the decline" from the tree ring data is a reasonable thing to do--provided one labels the graph properly. The graph was not properly labeled. Does Jones' "trick" and failure to properly label the graph constitute data falsification, or was it merely sloppy science? The hacked emails contain no suggestions that the "trick" was done to intentionally fool people, and the "trick" never appeared in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, including the IPCC reports. In Dr. Jones' words, "This is well-known and is called the "decline" or "divergence". The use of the term "hiding the decline" was in an email written in haste. CRU has not sought to hide the decline. Indeed, CRU has published a number of articles that both illustrate, and discuss the implications of, this recent tree-ring decline, including the article that is listed in the legend of the WMO Statement figure".




Figure 1. The WMO 1999 "hockey stick" figure (top) with climate reconstructions and instrumental temperatures merged, and a version (bottom) with the climate reconstructions (coloured) and instrumental temperatures (annual & summer in black) shown separately. Note "the decline" in the temperature obtained from tree ring data (green curve) in the bottom curve. Image credit: University of East Anglia.

Global warming contrarians are spinning the "trick" as reason to discredit the "hockey stick", claiming that the data was falsified to hide the fact that tree rings were telling the real story. Since the hockey stick was falsified, some claim, the entire science behind human-caused global warming needs to be questioned. This is plain ludicrous. The graph was never published in a scientific journal. Several updated versions of the "hockey stick" graph have been published in the ten years since the disputed graph was produced, and the "hockey stick" can be reproduced in essentially the same form excluding the controversial tree rings, using other paleoclimate data such as boreholes (See Mann et al., 2008, Figure 2). Furthermore, the peer-reviewed science supporting human-caused global warming is not based solely upon the "hockey stick" and the CRU data used for the last 150 years of the hockey stick graph. There are three separate data sets of global temperatures maintained by NASA, the CRU, and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, that all show essentially the same global warming. We also have evidence from nature herself in the form of plants and animals expanding their ranges poleward, the record loss of Arctic sea ice in 2007 and record loss of multi-year Arctic sea ice this year, the shrinking of mountain glaciers, reductions in the length of freeze season in many Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers, the shifting of spring blooms earlier in most regions of the world, and on and on and on. Again, Jones should have spoken up immediately to kill the ridiculous hype being pushed by global warming contrarians about the importance of a 10-year old graph that is now scientifically irrelevant, and was never published.


Figure 2. The "hockey stick" of global temperature anomalies since 300 A.D., as published in a 2008 paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Mann et al.. Even if one excludes tree rings (blue curve), the hockey stick looks the same.

Resistance to releasing data to other researchers
The hacked emails also show that Dr. Jones resisted releasing his data to contrarians and urged others to delete emails regarding Freedom Of Information (FOI) related requests. Many countries protect their weather data under an international agreement called World Meteorological Organization Resolution 40, which prohibits the data from being made public (this is why wunderground can't give out the UKMET model forecasts on our web site, for example). About 5% of the CRU data fell in that category, making release illegal. However, deleting emails related to FOI requests is inadvisable and implies one has something to hide. The investigation should certainly pursue the issue of whether Dr. Jones properly handled the requests to turn over his data to outside researchers. Ideally, weather data documenting Earth's climate history should be free to everyone on the planet (I am not a big fan of WMO Resolution 40). However, another aspect to this issue is the time it takes for the scientists involved to prepare the data for release. Large, complicated data sets require extensive documentation and access to related computer codes in order to process them, and making the data available to every amateur investigator interested in the data puts an unfair burden on the scientists who maintain the data sets. In particular, an amateur climate science investigator named Stephen McIntyre, who runs the web site Climate Audit, has created such an issue. McIntyre, a retired mining executive and an investor, is not a professional scientist, but has been successful identifying several technical errors made in the published literature. He has also generated a huge amount of misleading and incorrect information over the years, and has done a tremendous amount of damage to the understanding of climate science. McIntyre is intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming--presumably for ideological reasons, since he has no obvious ties to the fossil fuel industry--and has generated a large number of Freedom of Information requests to further his cause. One of the hacked emails, from Dr. Ben Santer, complained that McIntyre's FOI requests were intrusive and unreasonable with no scientific justification or explanation given, and appeared to be a calculated strategy to divert Santer's attention and focus away from research. It's worth reading Santer's reaction to the hacked email affair to learn more. Given such tactics by McIntyre, Dr. Jones' resistance to FOI requests from McIntyre is understandable, but appears to have been poorly handled.

The science of human-caused global warming remains unaffected
None of the hacked emails reveal any conspiracy to publish falsified or "fudged" material in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. The science of human-caused global warming will require no revision as a result of this affair. Baseless accusations of fraud, data manipulation, and conspiracy against climate change scientists stemming from the hacked emails are being massively hyped by the Manufactured Doubt industry in an effort to discredit climate scientists, since no flaw with the science can be found. Most of the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad, so if you can create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion, you can win--or at least buy time, lots of it. The hacked email affair is all about politics, not science. Dr. Jones is an excellent scientist, but unfortunately was over-matched as a politician. It was hardly a fair fight--one scientist against the political might of the mightiest PR campaign against science ever waged, armed with some selectively culled stolen emails taken out of context.

Other posts in this series
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Next post
I'm working on a post called, "Don't shoot the messenger", and plan to run this Sunday or Monday.

Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, will be in Copenhagen for Monday's start to the crucial COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. Be sure to tune into his blog for updates on the talks. Wunderground has provided financial support for several University of Michigan students to attend the talks, and I may be featuring portions of their blogs over the coming weeks.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting btwntx08:
damn i'm so close to the snow still imay get some maybe :/


You may get a PLEASANT SURPISE tomorrow. The "strong El- Nino" is the BEST time for TX to get any real snow, the cold air is in place, and the short-wave will at least bring a rain/snow mix.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
JFLORIDA and P451:

would it be so hard to ask you to move your personal debates/attacks to WU-mail? I'm not trying to just single you guys out, but I think your debate has gotten a little personal... and it frustrates me to see this, that is why I am making this request.. obviously you dont have to listen to what I say, but maybe out of respect for our fellow bloggers this could be resolved or moved to personal email? thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
123. IKE
Quoting NRAamy:
Not Al Gore, not liberal democrats and not pro abortion welfare hippies.

I didn't know hippies were on welfare....can you buy a doobie with Food Stamps?


You're really looking for a ban...LOL!
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Quoting hooptie1964:
Dr. Masters - "The public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad....."

It's disappointing to see that Dr. Masters appears to be of the opinion that we "the public" are not bright enough to make decisions for ourselves. I suppose I should just act like a sheep and follow what the masses tell me is true and not form my own opinion.

It's actually sort of offensive.



Good grief!! That's 'offensive'?!?!?!?! There are many areas about which 'the public' depends upon others with more knowledge and expertise...I suppose it's 'offensive' that I rely on the plumber to fix my leaky pipes...or a doctor to treat illness...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not Al Gore, not liberal democrats and not pro abortion welfare hippies.

I didn't know hippies were on welfare....can you buy a doobie with Food Stamps?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
120. IKE
Mobile now has a slight chance of sleet in their forecast....

Saturday: A slight chance of rain and sleet before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to between 10 and 15 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I tend to believe that the earth is warming, but.... might be a bit conceited.

Then you would be wrong. The vast majority of the world's scientific community has proven this to be the case. Not Al Gore, not liberal democrats and not pro abortion welfare hippies. Virtually every major branch of science is in agreement on this.

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113. g'mornin' AiM! :)
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Quoting tornadodude:


just curious,

if the warming (according to the ice cores) began 20,000 years ago, then it would not be man-made, right?
I don,t know, maybe the humans carried really big torches or made giant fires...just kidding, there is irrefutable proof that the Earth was a much warmer and balmy when there were no humans. However, I do not discuss G.W. often, I do believe humans have effected the atmosphere, to what extent the experts will probably figure it out in the years to come.
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hey Awake!

:)
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O Intelligent Evolution,
Amy's here, with a Big Bang,
Oh My! Tsk Tsk Tsk
'morning, Pearland...
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112. IKE
Quoting RitaEvac:
If we all were together at a meeting roundtable in some conference room, I guarantee you all some of us would be slamming our fists on the table and hollering and some folks getting roughed up. This GW debate is nothing but debate, politics, and money is involved,


Just gets old reading arguments on here about it time after time.

I've gotten smart and simply scroll by every GW comment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr. Masters - "The public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad....."

It's disappointing to see that Dr. Masters appears to be of the opinion that we "the public" are not bright enough to make decisions for ourselves. I suppose I should just act like a sheep and follow what the masses tell me is true and not form my own opinion.

It's actually sort of offensive.

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Quoting pearlandaggie:
103. oh, my...you just had to go there...didn't you? LOL


;) couldnt resist
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P451:

thanks for that,

I tend to believe that the earth is warming, but that it is part of a natural cycle, and that we might be enhancing it a tad, but to think that we, as humans, can significantly change the earth's climate over a short period of time might be a bit conceited.
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103. oh, my...you just had to go there...didn't you? LOL
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If we all were together at a meeting roundtable in some conference room, I guarantee you all some of us would be slamming our fists on the table

and I'd be making fart noises in my armpit.....

;)
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34. Pat, at first i thought that picture was from 100 years ago...until i saw the skyscrapers and powerlines in the background. cool picture...thanks for that :)
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Quoting StormChaser81:


Probably because there is a lot of WU bloggers that live in Florida.


youre not counting the half-million names JFV uses are you? LOL :P
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If we all were together at a meeting roundtable in some conference room, I guarantee you all some of us would be slamming our fists on the table and hollering and some folks getting roughed up. This GW debate is nothing but debate, politics, and money is involved,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:
Tornado Dude! That 1-2 IN snowfall for SE TX is like when you receive 1-2 FT of SNOW.

Everybody in SE TX will literally FREAK out. It'll give tens of thousands of Houstinians a reason to take Friday off :0)


haha yeah, 1-2 inches of snow will do nothing around here, now when we start getting to 8 inches of snow and up, thats when the fun begins :) that and the single digit highs along with the 30 mph winds, and they dont cancel classes at Purdue for this stuff. I guess that's why Drew Brees is so tough
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Yeppers, e.g., "How Weather Changed History", TWC

As for other blogs, there's a Hurricane watching group or groups on Yahoo and/or Facebook. But I'm under the impression they're not as scientically intelligent as this one (too full of non-experts like me). :( don't think


True. I must say, I do enjoy much of the commentary here. I just avoid the bickering. I just feel such a letdown when I visit this blog and it is just another defense of the GW community. Sometimes this blog feels like one of those too-good-to-be-true vacation deals where once you are there, they spend much of the time trying to sell you something.
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Quoting StormChaser81:


Probably because there is a lot of WU bloggers that live in Florida.


There are alot of bloggers that are in the SE Texas area including me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tornado Dude! That 1-2 IN snowfall for SE TX is like when you receive 1-2 FT of SNOW.

Everybody in SE TX will literally FREAK out. It'll give tens of thousands of Houstinians a reason to take Friday off :0)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting P451:
Link

Apparently, if you believe in ice core science, the warming began 20,000 years ago.

That pretty much takes a giant dump on the AGW theories does it not?

Again though, I don't really trust the ice core sciences, and I'm willing to listen to ice core scientists, who can tell me whether or not a thin ice year is due to a warm year or simply a dry year - and whether a thick ice year is due to a cold year or simply a wet year - and how they can tell the difference.



just curious,

if the warming (according to the ice cores) began 20,000 years ago, then it would not be man-made, right?
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Quoting IKE:
Great...another GW blog so folks can argue back and forth.

WOOHOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:(((((((((((((((((


:( bah humbug
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85. IKE
Great...another GW blog so folks can argue back and forth.

WOOHOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:(((((((((((((((((
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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
940 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON AT DFW AIRPORT...

AT 635 AM CST THIS MORNING (THURSDAY, DECEMBER 3)...DFW AIRPORT
DROPPED TO 32 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. THIS IS ONE
DAY EARLIER THAN THE FIRST FREEZE LAST SEASON (DECEMBER 4, 2008).
FOR THE ENTIRE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE RECORD...THE AVERAGE DATE
OF THE FIRST FREEZE IS NOVEMBER 22.

DALLAS/FORT WORTH AVERAGES 36 FREEZES PER WINTER. OF THOSE...30
TYPICALLY OCCUR DURING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...AND
FEBRUARY.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting P451:
Since the AGW crowd isn't one to be reasoned with, there's no point in going forward other than to point out that it's funny pretending to have accurate climate data stretching back to the birth of Christ.

Meanwhile, I can't wait:

SATURDAY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.


Yeah baby! Although, there's little telling if it will be accumulating, and if it is I would doubt seeing any more than an inch or two.

All this posting about snow makes me wonder if the some in the south will actually have a snowy Christmas.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
839 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM CDT FRIDAY UNTIL 12 AM
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM EAGLE LAKE TO CONROE TO SHEPHERD.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212-032245-
/O.CON.KHGX.WS.A.0002.091204T1200Z-091205T0600Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...
CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...EAGLE LAKE...GROVETON...
HEMPSTEAD...HUNTSVILLE...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PRAIRIE VIEW...SEALY...
SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WILLIS
839 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING RAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO CONTINUOUS SNOW
BEFORE NOON. THIS SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO END OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

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Quoting presslord:
there has ALWAYS been a close connection between weather and politics....

Yeppers, e.g., "How Weather Changed History", TWC

As for other blogs, there's a Hurricane watching group or groups on Yahoo and/or Facebook. But I'm under the impression they're not as scientically intelligent as this one (too full of non-experts like me). :(
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.