Embattled UK climate scientist steps down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on December 03, 2009

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The embattled director of the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (CRU), Dr. Phil Jones, announced that he will be temporarily standing aside as director. An independent review of his conduct in light of the emails illegally hacked from his computers last month is in progress. In a press release, Professor Jones said: "What is most important is that CRU continues its world leading research with as little interruption and diversion as possible. After a good deal of consideration I have decided that the best way to achieve this is by stepping aside from the Director's role during the course of the independent review and am grateful to the University for agreeing to this. The Review process will have my full support".

The University and the police are investigating the break-in, and it is currently unknown if this was the act of an insider or an external break-in. I think it is highly unlikely this was the work of an insider in a whistle-blower type of action, since a computer at realclimate.org was hacked into the same week (via a computer in Turkey), and the criminal attempted to upload the emails stolen from CRU to the realclimate.org server. This is not the sort of action a whistleblower would do. Dr. Gavin Schmidt of realclimate.org said in a comment yesterday that the CRU break-in appeared to have been done from the outside, into a backup mail server. It is unlikely the hacker acted alone, since hackers aren't typically intimately familiar with the details of the climate change science debate. The emails and code stolen were selectively culled by someone who appeared to have considerable expertise in climate science.

What did Dr. Jones do wrong?
So, what did Dr. Jones do wrong? For starters, he should have confronted the allegations raised by his critics immediately and talked candidly to the press about some of the specific accusations being made. For example, one of the emails contained the statement that he would like to "redefine what the peer-reviewed literature is" to exclude two questionable papers from the IPCC report. Well, that's not something a good scientist should seriously advocate, and is an impossibility, in any case. No one can redefine the peer-reviewed literature, since the rules for this are well-established an not subject to change. When I read the comment in the context it was made, it reads as a joke. There is no discussion in the hacked emails about how to go about redefining the peer-reviewed literature. In the end, the two papers Jones was referring to with this comment, McKitrick and Michaels (2004) and Kalnay and Cai (2003), ended up being cited and discussed in Chapter 2 of the IPCC AR4 report. Those intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming are spinning the comment differently, creating a controversy about something that is impossible to do, and was not being seriously suggested. Jones should have immediately spoken up to quash the hype on this comment.

The "trick" to "hide the decline"
Another area of concern is over a graph Dr. Jones helped construct in 1999 showing the "hockey stick" of Earth's surface temperature going back 1,000 years. This graph combined instrumental measurements made since the 1800s with older paleoclimate data (including data from tree rings) to show a continuous 1,000 year record of Earth's temperatures. The paleoclimate data after 1960 show a bogus decline in Earth's temperatures that does not agree with what modern thermometers have been measuring, due to a well-known variation in tree ring thickness as a function of time, referred to as "the decline". Thus, Jones elected to toss out the bogus paleoclimate data (using a "trick" to "hide the decline") rather than present it in the graph. The graph was not properly labeled to show this was done, so viewers of the graph would have had needed to be familiar with a 1998 paper published in Nature or the 1999 paper referenced in the caption on the graph, which explained this well-known data issue. The graph that Jones used his "trick" on was put into a 1999 report called the "WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate". The report was given to policy makers, but was never published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. No reputable climate scientist believes that the paleoclimate data since 1960 is of higher quality than the instrumental record (this is discussed in detail in Chapter 6 of the 2007 IPCC report). In order to make the "hokey stick" graph less confusing, removing "the decline" from the tree ring data is a reasonable thing to do--provided one labels the graph properly. The graph was not properly labeled. Does Jones' "trick" and failure to properly label the graph constitute data falsification, or was it merely sloppy science? The hacked emails contain no suggestions that the "trick" was done to intentionally fool people, and the "trick" never appeared in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, including the IPCC reports. In Dr. Jones' words, "This is well-known and is called the "decline" or "divergence". The use of the term "hiding the decline" was in an email written in haste. CRU has not sought to hide the decline. Indeed, CRU has published a number of articles that both illustrate, and discuss the implications of, this recent tree-ring decline, including the article that is listed in the legend of the WMO Statement figure".




Figure 1. The WMO 1999 "hockey stick" figure (top) with climate reconstructions and instrumental temperatures merged, and a version (bottom) with the climate reconstructions (coloured) and instrumental temperatures (annual & summer in black) shown separately. Note "the decline" in the temperature obtained from tree ring data (green curve) in the bottom curve. Image credit: University of East Anglia.

Global warming contrarians are spinning the "trick" as reason to discredit the "hockey stick", claiming that the data was falsified to hide the fact that tree rings were telling the real story. Since the hockey stick was falsified, some claim, the entire science behind human-caused global warming needs to be questioned. This is plain ludicrous. The graph was never published in a scientific journal. Several updated versions of the "hockey stick" graph have been published in the ten years since the disputed graph was produced, and the "hockey stick" can be reproduced in essentially the same form excluding the controversial tree rings, using other paleoclimate data such as boreholes (See Mann et al., 2008, Figure 2). Furthermore, the peer-reviewed science supporting human-caused global warming is not based solely upon the "hockey stick" and the CRU data used for the last 150 years of the hockey stick graph. There are three separate data sets of global temperatures maintained by NASA, the CRU, and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, that all show essentially the same global warming. We also have evidence from nature herself in the form of plants and animals expanding their ranges poleward, the record loss of Arctic sea ice in 2007 and record loss of multi-year Arctic sea ice this year, the shrinking of mountain glaciers, reductions in the length of freeze season in many Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers, the shifting of spring blooms earlier in most regions of the world, and on and on and on. Again, Jones should have spoken up immediately to kill the ridiculous hype being pushed by global warming contrarians about the importance of a 10-year old graph that is now scientifically irrelevant, and was never published.


Figure 2. The "hockey stick" of global temperature anomalies since 300 A.D., as published in a 2008 paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Mann et al.. Even if one excludes tree rings (blue curve), the hockey stick looks the same.

Resistance to releasing data to other researchers
The hacked emails also show that Dr. Jones resisted releasing his data to contrarians and urged others to delete emails regarding Freedom Of Information (FOI) related requests. Many countries protect their weather data under an international agreement called World Meteorological Organization Resolution 40, which prohibits the data from being made public (this is why wunderground can't give out the UKMET model forecasts on our web site, for example). About 5% of the CRU data fell in that category, making release illegal. However, deleting emails related to FOI requests is inadvisable and implies one has something to hide. The investigation should certainly pursue the issue of whether Dr. Jones properly handled the requests to turn over his data to outside researchers. Ideally, weather data documenting Earth's climate history should be free to everyone on the planet (I am not a big fan of WMO Resolution 40). However, another aspect to this issue is the time it takes for the scientists involved to prepare the data for release. Large, complicated data sets require extensive documentation and access to related computer codes in order to process them, and making the data available to every amateur investigator interested in the data puts an unfair burden on the scientists who maintain the data sets. In particular, an amateur climate science investigator named Stephen McIntyre, who runs the web site Climate Audit, has created such an issue. McIntyre, a retired mining executive and an investor, is not a professional scientist, but has been successful identifying several technical errors made in the published literature. He has also generated a huge amount of misleading and incorrect information over the years, and has done a tremendous amount of damage to the understanding of climate science. McIntyre is intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming--presumably for ideological reasons, since he has no obvious ties to the fossil fuel industry--and has generated a large number of Freedom of Information requests to further his cause. One of the hacked emails, from Dr. Ben Santer, complained that McIntyre's FOI requests were intrusive and unreasonable with no scientific justification or explanation given, and appeared to be a calculated strategy to divert Santer's attention and focus away from research. It's worth reading Santer's reaction to the hacked email affair to learn more. Given such tactics by McIntyre, Dr. Jones' resistance to FOI requests from McIntyre is understandable, but appears to have been poorly handled.

The science of human-caused global warming remains unaffected
None of the hacked emails reveal any conspiracy to publish falsified or "fudged" material in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. The science of human-caused global warming will require no revision as a result of this affair. Baseless accusations of fraud, data manipulation, and conspiracy against climate change scientists stemming from the hacked emails are being massively hyped by the Manufactured Doubt industry in an effort to discredit climate scientists, since no flaw with the science can be found. Most of the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad, so if you can create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion, you can win--or at least buy time, lots of it. The hacked email affair is all about politics, not science. Dr. Jones is an excellent scientist, but unfortunately was over-matched as a politician. It was hardly a fair fight--one scientist against the political might of the mightiest PR campaign against science ever waged, armed with some selectively culled stolen emails taken out of context.

Other posts in this series
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Next post
I'm working on a post called, "Don't shoot the messenger", and plan to run this Sunday or Monday.

Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, will be in Copenhagen for Monday's start to the crucial COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. Be sure to tune into his blog for updates on the talks. Wunderground has provided financial support for several University of Michigan students to attend the talks, and I may be featuring portions of their blogs over the coming weeks.

Jeff Masters

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1475. xcool
yay ilove snow
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Just to let everyone know. I have just emailed the Aust Bureau Of Meteorology about the effects the lose of QuickSCAT and why there is no recon into Cyclones that form around Australia.

Stay safe all with the snow and other severe weather around over there,
Cheers AussieStorm
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1473. Grothar
Quoting SouthALWX:

LOL


Oh, see you got my "drift". Good luck on the game. They both deserve a shot they way both teams have played.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hard question to answer, it depends on what freezea first, the left snowflake or the right snowflake. Either way, its bad for the snowflakes. Shouldn't be a problem, in Scandinavia, we leave our Saunas and roll in the snow naked when the temperature is -20. Hasn't hurt us yet.

LOL
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1471. Grothar
Quoting SouthALWX:

I'd like my Tide to win, but regardless it's going to be a great game .. I saw a snowflake in mobile county so according to a bet with IKE I'm about to have to run around outside naked .....well ... is "snow" a plural? I think it takes atleast two flakes to be "snow" ... yeah ...


Hard question to answer, it depends on what freezea first, the left snowflake or the right snowflake. Either way, its bad for the snowflakes. Shouldn't be a problem, in Scandinavia, we leave our Saunas and roll in the snow naked when the temperature is -20. Hasn't hurt us yet.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, 12-0 and 12-0m makes the odds even. Somebody is after that Heisman!!!! Should be some game.

I'd like my Tide to win, but regardless it's going to be a great game .. I saw a snowflake in mobile county so according to a bet with IKE I'm about to have to run around outside naked .....well ... is "snow" a plural? I think it takes atleast two flakes to be "snow" ... yeah ...
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1469. Grothar
Quoting SouthALWX:

You know, despite your accuracy, you shouldn't say things like that when active weather is threatening .. you cant say that tebow is going to get t-boned .. you cant say that Julio will catch 4 TD passes .. and you cant say that Tebow will get sacked more than those folks on the apprentice .. you just cant...


Hey, 12-0 and 12-0m makes the odds even. Somebody is after that Heisman!!!! Should be some game.
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Quoting iluvjess:
Today is the day Al beats FL. Roll tide!

You know, despite your accuracy, you shouldn't say things like that when active weather is threatening .. you cant say that tebow is going to get t-boned .. you cant say that Julio will catch 4 TD passes .. and you cant say that Tebow will get sacked more than those folks on the apprentice .. you just cant...
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Quoting iluvjess:
Today is the day Al beats FL. Roll tide!


You best be "Steam Rolling Tide" if you expect to have a chance in He))
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Today is the day Al beats FL. Roll tide!
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Heya Pat, I just logged on. Did you get any snow in NOLA?

EDIT: Nevermind, I just saw your post.
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1464. Patrap
What a frigging wild day atmo..LOL

A Lil Spritz Uptown Now Snow Sleet Mix.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
WOUS64 KWNS 050545
WOU4

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 794
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

TORNADO WATCH 794 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC011-021-051-085-086-087-099-111-051400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0794.091205T0550Z-091205T1400Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWARD COLLIER HENDRY
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE
PALM BEACH ST. LUCIE


AMZ555-610-630-650-651-GMZ031-032-052-053-054-656-657-051400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0794.091205T0550Z-091205T1400Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM

LAKE OKEECHOBEE

BISCAYNE BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM

FLORIDA BAY

GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY
WEST OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...MLB...
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1462. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:

Oh, I think using more than one processor core within a single machine is something has been done under the hood starting with IDL version 7. THAT I have done.

We had 2 different ideas of parallelism /multithreading in mind...


In my day, parallelism had a slightly different connotation is application than in structure as used today. In its earlier usage is was a way of approaching a main problem and breaking it down into lesser problems and then solved in a parallel manner. We would burn up our early machines. LOL. I believe today it is more of feature of the processors. Don't forget, in my date we had to run from room to room to operate them. I won't tell you the year, but let us say Ed Sullivan was already an old man.
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Moving right along, the next Meso Discussion on the Snow Evernt:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CST FRI DEC 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS...CENTRAL AND NRN AL...FAR NRN GA...ERN TN
AND FAR WRN NC

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 050518Z - 051115Z

AN EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL EVENT WILL SHIFT OUT OF MS GENERALLY BY 09Z
AND TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN AL AND FAR NRN GA INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF TN/NC BY 09-12Z. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT...THOUGH VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS MS/SERN LA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SPREADING NEWD INTO AL THROUGH 09Z WITHIN A ZONE OF ASCENT OCCURRING
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE S/W TROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
RAPID CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW /WITH A MIXTURE OF SLEET IN SERN
LA/ HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS WET BULB COOLING DROPS TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 32-35 DEG F. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RESIDING IN THE
TWENTIES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...ADDITIONAL WET BULB COOLING TO NEAR FREEZING IS LIKELY AS
RAIN OVERSPREADS AL/NRN GA/ERN TN/WRN NC...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATES STRONGEST ASCENT WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
LIGHT /GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH PER HR/.

..GARNER.. 12/05/2009


Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1460. Skyepony (Mod)
This is the first evidence of omega aragonite undersaturation in deep basin surface waters," Fiona McLaughlin of the Institute of Ocean Sciences, Canada, told environmentalresearchweb. "In a 2009 publication models predicted that the surface waters might be undersaturated in the Arctic within a decade. We're making those observations now, because the ice has melted so fast. Essentially the papers are almost being written at the same time."
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if you look at the radar loops, the area of rain/snow is starting to get more of a northerly component. As that is happening, it is causing a minimal decrease in the distance (straight line) covered by the individual bands. I wouldn't count on it, but it may buy some of those who would just like to see some flurries atleast another 1/2 hour or so to cool off a bit more. I do notice that according to this: http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/frames.php?sector=6, under winter weather under near freezing, the cold air is starting to accelerate south and east. This seems to be causing some of the precip to dry up so we may not see many accumulations >1 inch, but it also implies a greater coverage of flurry activity in the near term. (That's all that I could find to help the cause fellow snow weenies. If I can dig up something else to even slightly infer more snow I'll post it in a heartbeat LOL)
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1458. xcool
now snow snow here
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1457. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:
That was fast. I submitted a 0.5 inch report to NWS Slidell and 10 minutes later it is on my local WU page...

12/04/2009 1110 PM

3 miles S of Covington, St Tammany Parish.

Snow m0.5 inch, reported by public.


About half an inch of snow accumulation near Covington.



Maybe you have multiple CPU's and don't know it!! JK Everytime time I see one of your posts, my impression of you grows. As I have said before, at, we may not agree on many things, but I admire a fair individual over someone with whom I agree completely. That is the only way we learn.
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down to 38 in north mobile ... still mostly rain with some sleet mixed in ... if we can drop 1 more degree or two in the next hour~ we may see a dusting....
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Quoting Grothar:


Oh, I was under the impression that if you used a particular routine with an IDL threadpool you could increase the execution value on systems with multiple CPUs. It is used extensively in scenarios. I, of course have never attempted it.

Oh, I think using more than one processor core within a single machine is something has been done under the hood starting with IDL version 7. THAT I have done.

We had 2 different ideas of parallelism /multithreading in mind...
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That was fast. I submitted a 0.5 inch report to NWS Slidell and 10 minutes later it is on my local WU page...

12/04/2009 1110 PM

3 miles S of Covington, St Tammany Parish.

Snow m0.5 inch, reported by public.


About half an inch of snow accumulation near Covington.

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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
1433. Bordonaro 4:55 AM GMT on December 05, 2009

I understand it's all there. The unexpected dry/stable boundary layer, sitting on the ground of the SW mind you, is preventing that from happening. But, it appears that the layer is starting to fill in but, it did this earlier and retrograded so, I'll wait for the proof. Dry as a bone so far in Western PBC.


Keep an eye on the line of storms getting ready to move in off the GOM near Evergaldes City, FL. That line has the potential to intensify as a Low Level Jet of 50KT approaches from the WSW.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1452. Grothar
Quoting SouthALWX:

depends on where you are .. if the system starts to turn NE to curve out sooner than expected it might slow down briefly during the direction change.


I guess the maps are just a bit confusing and conflicting. Thanks for taking your time with the analysis. I guess the only thing to do is look on the lawn tomorrow. It they are white, it has snowed. A lot of rain for some places though.
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1451. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:

Not sure what you mean, but IDL is mostly a compile and run in the same step setup. Every invocation of an IDL program consumes a license. The cheapest single-server license is at least $3k. (It IS possible to build a stand-alone precompiled function to send someone, but it's capabilities are limited)

Running WRF (Fortran) on 256 processors after consuming a compiler license only during compile is very different from trying to run IDL code in the same manner...

I have not attempted this with IDL, nor can I come up with a situation where it would be worthwhile.


Oh, I was under the impression that if you used a particular routine with an IDL threadpool you could increase the execution value on systems with multiple CPUs. It is used extensively in scenarios. I, of course have never attempted it.
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Quoting Grothar:


Didn't know the jet stream was that strong. Just checked a few things and what you say has a great deal of validity. Is is possible as mentioned by someone earlier, the dynamics could change and the system slow down to allow the colder air to be in a position to allow more snow? Not asking for a real technical explanation at this hour. Looking at the maps can be a little deceiving when one doesn't understand them fully as I.


Yes, it is possible, but not likely.

However, look at the precipitation on the radar. Already exiting most of LA and moving at a good clip. The NWS NOLA did a atmospheric sounding and reported it as part of the Area Forecast Discussion at 7:58PM CST, about 4 hrs ago. That determined there was a 140KT SW Jet at about 35,000 FT. The Jet will drive the system quickly to the NE. The precip will have ended before the temps in the atmosphere cool down enough to support snow.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. A VERY MOIST SOUNDING...
PARTICULARLY ALOFT WITH A PW OF 0.84 INCHES AND A NEARLY SATURATED
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 AND 830 MILLIBARS WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE AROUND ZERO DEGREES. FREEZING LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AT 5100 FEET
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AS WELL AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR
A FEW HOURS BEFORE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THE LAKE. A STRONG 140 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS IN PLACE AT
AROUND 188 MILLIBARS AS WELL


188MB height is around 42,000 FT up
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785


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Quoting Grothar:


Didn't know the jet stream was that strong. Just checked a few things and what you say has a great deal of validity. Is is possible as mentioned by someone earlier, the dynamics could change and the system slow down to allow the colder air to be in a position to allow more snow? Not asking for a real technical explanation at this hour. Looking at the maps can be a little deceiving when one doesn't understand them fully as I.

depends on where you are .. if the system starts to turn NE to curve out sooner than expected it might slow down briefly during the direction change.
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Quoting Grothar:


thought that was only for a given computation. Have you ever done a multithread using it?

Not sure what you mean, but IDL is mostly a compile and run in the same step setup. Every invocation of an IDL program consumes a license. The cheapest single-server license is at least $3k. (It IS possible to build a stand-alone precompiled function to send someone, but it's capabilities are limited)

Running WRF (Fortran) on 256 processors after consuming a compiler license only during compile is very different from trying to run IDL code in the same manner...

I have not attempted this with IDL, nor can I come up with a situation where it would be worthwhile.
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1446. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:

Well, truly, to make a array of long intergers, lingen is the code...
And you could argue with yourself a long time like that...unless figure a way to parallelize or multithread IDL code, which I heard has been done (just not something I have done)


thought that was only for a given computation. Have you ever done a multithread using it?
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Just turned on my 500K candlewatt street light killer and there is something mixed with the light rain that is light enough to be blown upwards. Baldwin Co, AL 42.9 degrees.
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1444. Grothar
Quoting Bordonaro:


The same scenario set-up happens time, after time, after time in the DFW area of N TX. It's normally an invisible line running fro, Gainsville, TX, through Denton, Mineral Wells, down towards Brownwood, TX. To the W of that line, snow or ice occurs 2-5X/yr, usually a light glaze. To the E of that line, cold rain.

Cold air gets pulled down from the TX Panhandle to NW TX. To the E enough warm GOM air, usually keeps us at 36-44F, a cole rain.


Didn't know the jet stream was that strong. Just checked a few things and what you say has a great deal of validity. Is is possible as mentioned by someone earlier, the dynamics could change and the system slow down to allow the colder air to be in a position to allow more snow? Not asking for a real technical explanation at this hour. Looking at the maps can be a little deceiving when one doesn't understand them fully as I.
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Quoting Grothar:


Quite well, thank you. I am in Norway and shall be leaving for Denmark soon. Personally, I like to use a Lindgen now and then so I can return a bigger Argument and fight with myself. It is so much easier, I never lose. Much like a similar discussion a while back, remember? By the way, that was a very subjective answer you gave to TheCaneWhisperer. Very professional response. I am serious about that.

Well, truly, to make a array of long intergers, lingen is the code...
And you could argue with yourself a long time like that...unless figure a way to parallelize or multithread IDL code, which I heard has been done (just not something I have done)
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1442. Grothar
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


I had to design a working ATM machine to graduate my CPT class @ Purdue.

Line of code that could & did dupe the best of them.


Much like Captain Kirk did on the Kobiyashi Maru to get into Star Fleet. He simply changed the rules in a no win situation. Clever. Guess it worked. We all dupe a little in life. That is what makes life so interesting.
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1433. Bordonaro 4:55 AM GMT on December 05, 2009

I understand it's all there. The unexpected dry/stable boundary layer, sitting on the ground of the SW mind you, is preventing that from happening. But, it appears that the layer is starting to fill in but, it did this earlier and retrograded so, I'll wait for the proof. Dry as a bone so far in Western PBC.
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Quoting Grothar:


You're right, of course. There seems to be so little of that around today. Glad to see a little integrity sometimes. Good show!

However, after living in SFL for so long, I even wish for a little flake dropping now and then.


The same scenario set-up happens time, after time, after time in the DFW area of N TX. It's normally an invisible line running fro, Gainsville, TX, through Denton, Mineral Wells, down towards Brownwood, TX. To the W of that line, snow or ice occurs 2-5X/yr, usually a light glaze. To the E of that line, cold rain.

Cold air gets pulled down from the TX Panhandle to NW TX. To the E enough warm GOM air, usually keeps us at 36-44F, a cole rain.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1439. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:

Hehe. I'm ok. Wishing my 3 and 5 yr olds could see some snow cover in the morn, but doesn't seem to be in the cards.

How are you and yours?


Quite well, thank you. I am in Norway and shall be leaving for Denmark soon. Personally, I like to use a Lindgen now and then so I can return a bigger Argument and fight with myself. It is so much easier, I never lose. Much like a similar discussion a while back, remember? By the way, that was a very subjective answer you gave to TheCaneWhisperer. Very professional response. I am serious about that.
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its all good.. i kinda figure the temp wasnt goin to drop anymore and its really pushing the system pretty fast.. but maybe close to christmas or close to my birthday maybe something will happen.. I wouldnt mind wish casting snow on me but no too tropical systems..lol
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Quoting taco2me61:


Thats about right as of right now anyway..... I do think that around midnite to 1am it will change into snow north of downtown and west..... so you sould get a good dusting in Citronelle......

we may =) Im not holding my breath though, this storm is moving a little too quickly.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

More like they applied an increasing factor to historical temp obs. Somewhat like accounting for UHI, but in reverse. Like doubling the effect on the "value added" temperatures.


I had to design a working ATM machine to graduate my CPT class @ Purdue.

Line of code that could & did dupe the best of them.
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1435. Grothar
Quoting Bordonaro:


Thanks. I don't want to lie to anyone, the chance of any frozen precip in that area is pretty close to 20% or less. The storm system needs to slow down in order for that to happen. The SW Jet is blowing at 140KT, so the system is gonna move pretty quick!


You're right, of course. There seems to be so little of that around today. Glad to see a little integrity sometimes. Good show!

However, after living in SFL for so long, I even wish for a little flake dropping now and then.
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Quoting Grothar:


I always wanted to ask someone that. Spent many a night trying to figure that out. How you doing atmoaggie?

Hehe. I'm ok. Wishing my 3 and 5 yr olds could see some snow cover in the morn, but doesn't seem to be in the cards.

How are you and yours?
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


There is a stable boundary layer between the 2 fronts. Not much moving previous but, things appear to be cranking now.


Quite frankly, the threat for severe weather in S FL is there, just out of the picture near the Keys, into the Bahama's. IF that boundry starts to move northward, the higher instability levels will be over S FL.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0924 PM CST FRI DEC 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 050324Z - 050500Z

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS CELLS MOVE INLAND ACROSS FAR SRN
FL LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST. A
WW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS EVENING BUT ISSUANCE IS MOST
LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.

AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN FL FROM
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK ENEWD TO THE MIAMI AREA. A CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS QUITE STRONG. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF FL WHERE WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXIST FOR ROTATING STORMS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS THE EVERGLADES LATE THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
A WELL-DEFINED 45 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES SRN FL FROM THE
WEST SOUTHWEST. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WET
DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE INTENSE LINE-SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 12/05/2009
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting SouthALWX:

I'm near citronelle. Well away from any heat islands ... havent seen anything other than sleet as of yet.


Thats about right as of right now anyway..... I do think that around midnite to 1am it will change into snow north of downtown and west..... so you sould get a good dusting in Citronelle......
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


So, they twisted the code to accept an input value.

More like they applied an increasing factor to historical temp obs. Somewhat like accounting for UHI, but in reverse. Like doubling the effect on the "value added" temperatures.

indgen was used in the analysis, but simply to show a point...but had findgen results...
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Quoting Grothar:


Yo! Bordonaro. Good explanation and quite accurate; but give them a little hope, they really want a little snow. After all it's almost Christmas. You could say it is possible, though!


Thanks. I don't want to lie to anyone, the chance of any frozen precip in that area is pretty close to 20% or less. The storm system needs to slow down in order for that to happen. The SW Jet is blowing at 140KT, so the system is gonna move pretty quick!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting taco2me61:


Its 39 degrees here as of right now and falling slowly so I think we might get just a little here in west mobile but as for you there could be more because you are north of I-10 and west of I-65

I'm near citronelle. Well away from any heat islands ... havent seen anything other than sleet as of yet.
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Quoting VTG:
Ok, maybe someone else in Pensacola can verify this for me, but I'm fairly certain we're getting a rain/sleet mix here now. I'm at Davis and Langley.

I live around the airport- it's just light rain here.


Same here and it's 43 outside. Was never expecting anything else, maybe north a little in AL. All coming off the warm GoM waters. Everyplace it's snowed has had at least some landmass south of the snow line (swampmass for LA). Don't know if this makes a difference, but...
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Quoting Bordonaro:


The cold air is entrenched to the west of you. The cold air will lift up and out behind the storm, from MS, C AL, W TN, W NC, W VA. the areas from the FL Panhandle, GA, SC, E NC have warmer air lifting in from the ATL & GOM.

I understand you want to see snow, however, the air from ground level to 20,000 FT is too mild to support snow.


There is a stable boundary layer between the 2 fronts. Not much moving previous but, things appear to be cranking now.
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1426. Grothar
Quoting Bordonaro:


The cold air is entrenched to the west of you. The cold air will lift up and out behind the storm, from MS, C AL, W TN, W NC, W VA. the areas from the FL Panhandle, GA, SC, E NC have warmer air lifting in from the ATL & GOM.

I understand you want to see snow, however, the air from ground level to 20,000 FT is too mild to support snow.


Yo! Bordonaro. Good explanation and quite accurate; but give them a little hope, they really want a little snow. After all it's almost Christmas. You could say it is possible, though!
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Except for one thing. They use indgen and create a hypothetical "floating point array". "findgen" does that. "indgen" creates a integer array.


So, they twisted the code to accept an input value.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.