Embattled UK climate scientist steps down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on December 03, 2009

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The embattled director of the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (CRU), Dr. Phil Jones, announced that he will be temporarily standing aside as director. An independent review of his conduct in light of the emails illegally hacked from his computers last month is in progress. In a press release, Professor Jones said: "What is most important is that CRU continues its world leading research with as little interruption and diversion as possible. After a good deal of consideration I have decided that the best way to achieve this is by stepping aside from the Director's role during the course of the independent review and am grateful to the University for agreeing to this. The Review process will have my full support".

The University and the police are investigating the break-in, and it is currently unknown if this was the act of an insider or an external break-in. I think it is highly unlikely this was the work of an insider in a whistle-blower type of action, since a computer at realclimate.org was hacked into the same week (via a computer in Turkey), and the criminal attempted to upload the emails stolen from CRU to the realclimate.org server. This is not the sort of action a whistleblower would do. Dr. Gavin Schmidt of realclimate.org said in a comment yesterday that the CRU break-in appeared to have been done from the outside, into a backup mail server. It is unlikely the hacker acted alone, since hackers aren't typically intimately familiar with the details of the climate change science debate. The emails and code stolen were selectively culled by someone who appeared to have considerable expertise in climate science.

What did Dr. Jones do wrong?
So, what did Dr. Jones do wrong? For starters, he should have confronted the allegations raised by his critics immediately and talked candidly to the press about some of the specific accusations being made. For example, one of the emails contained the statement that he would like to "redefine what the peer-reviewed literature is" to exclude two questionable papers from the IPCC report. Well, that's not something a good scientist should seriously advocate, and is an impossibility, in any case. No one can redefine the peer-reviewed literature, since the rules for this are well-established an not subject to change. When I read the comment in the context it was made, it reads as a joke. There is no discussion in the hacked emails about how to go about redefining the peer-reviewed literature. In the end, the two papers Jones was referring to with this comment, McKitrick and Michaels (2004) and Kalnay and Cai (2003), ended up being cited and discussed in Chapter 2 of the IPCC AR4 report. Those intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming are spinning the comment differently, creating a controversy about something that is impossible to do, and was not being seriously suggested. Jones should have immediately spoken up to quash the hype on this comment.

The "trick" to "hide the decline"
Another area of concern is over a graph Dr. Jones helped construct in 1999 showing the "hockey stick" of Earth's surface temperature going back 1,000 years. This graph combined instrumental measurements made since the 1800s with older paleoclimate data (including data from tree rings) to show a continuous 1,000 year record of Earth's temperatures. The paleoclimate data after 1960 show a bogus decline in Earth's temperatures that does not agree with what modern thermometers have been measuring, due to a well-known variation in tree ring thickness as a function of time, referred to as "the decline". Thus, Jones elected to toss out the bogus paleoclimate data (using a "trick" to "hide the decline") rather than present it in the graph. The graph was not properly labeled to show this was done, so viewers of the graph would have had needed to be familiar with a 1998 paper published in Nature or the 1999 paper referenced in the caption on the graph, which explained this well-known data issue. The graph that Jones used his "trick" on was put into a 1999 report called the "WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate". The report was given to policy makers, but was never published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. No reputable climate scientist believes that the paleoclimate data since 1960 is of higher quality than the instrumental record (this is discussed in detail in Chapter 6 of the 2007 IPCC report). In order to make the "hokey stick" graph less confusing, removing "the decline" from the tree ring data is a reasonable thing to do--provided one labels the graph properly. The graph was not properly labeled. Does Jones' "trick" and failure to properly label the graph constitute data falsification, or was it merely sloppy science? The hacked emails contain no suggestions that the "trick" was done to intentionally fool people, and the "trick" never appeared in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, including the IPCC reports. In Dr. Jones' words, "This is well-known and is called the "decline" or "divergence". The use of the term "hiding the decline" was in an email written in haste. CRU has not sought to hide the decline. Indeed, CRU has published a number of articles that both illustrate, and discuss the implications of, this recent tree-ring decline, including the article that is listed in the legend of the WMO Statement figure".




Figure 1. The WMO 1999 "hockey stick" figure (top) with climate reconstructions and instrumental temperatures merged, and a version (bottom) with the climate reconstructions (coloured) and instrumental temperatures (annual & summer in black) shown separately. Note "the decline" in the temperature obtained from tree ring data (green curve) in the bottom curve. Image credit: University of East Anglia.

Global warming contrarians are spinning the "trick" as reason to discredit the "hockey stick", claiming that the data was falsified to hide the fact that tree rings were telling the real story. Since the hockey stick was falsified, some claim, the entire science behind human-caused global warming needs to be questioned. This is plain ludicrous. The graph was never published in a scientific journal. Several updated versions of the "hockey stick" graph have been published in the ten years since the disputed graph was produced, and the "hockey stick" can be reproduced in essentially the same form excluding the controversial tree rings, using other paleoclimate data such as boreholes (See Mann et al., 2008, Figure 2). Furthermore, the peer-reviewed science supporting human-caused global warming is not based solely upon the "hockey stick" and the CRU data used for the last 150 years of the hockey stick graph. There are three separate data sets of global temperatures maintained by NASA, the CRU, and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, that all show essentially the same global warming. We also have evidence from nature herself in the form of plants and animals expanding their ranges poleward, the record loss of Arctic sea ice in 2007 and record loss of multi-year Arctic sea ice this year, the shrinking of mountain glaciers, reductions in the length of freeze season in many Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers, the shifting of spring blooms earlier in most regions of the world, and on and on and on. Again, Jones should have spoken up immediately to kill the ridiculous hype being pushed by global warming contrarians about the importance of a 10-year old graph that is now scientifically irrelevant, and was never published.


Figure 2. The "hockey stick" of global temperature anomalies since 300 A.D., as published in a 2008 paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Mann et al.. Even if one excludes tree rings (blue curve), the hockey stick looks the same.

Resistance to releasing data to other researchers
The hacked emails also show that Dr. Jones resisted releasing his data to contrarians and urged others to delete emails regarding Freedom Of Information (FOI) related requests. Many countries protect their weather data under an international agreement called World Meteorological Organization Resolution 40, which prohibits the data from being made public (this is why wunderground can't give out the UKMET model forecasts on our web site, for example). About 5% of the CRU data fell in that category, making release illegal. However, deleting emails related to FOI requests is inadvisable and implies one has something to hide. The investigation should certainly pursue the issue of whether Dr. Jones properly handled the requests to turn over his data to outside researchers. Ideally, weather data documenting Earth's climate history should be free to everyone on the planet (I am not a big fan of WMO Resolution 40). However, another aspect to this issue is the time it takes for the scientists involved to prepare the data for release. Large, complicated data sets require extensive documentation and access to related computer codes in order to process them, and making the data available to every amateur investigator interested in the data puts an unfair burden on the scientists who maintain the data sets. In particular, an amateur climate science investigator named Stephen McIntyre, who runs the web site Climate Audit, has created such an issue. McIntyre, a retired mining executive and an investor, is not a professional scientist, but has been successful identifying several technical errors made in the published literature. He has also generated a huge amount of misleading and incorrect information over the years, and has done a tremendous amount of damage to the understanding of climate science. McIntyre is intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming--presumably for ideological reasons, since he has no obvious ties to the fossil fuel industry--and has generated a large number of Freedom of Information requests to further his cause. One of the hacked emails, from Dr. Ben Santer, complained that McIntyre's FOI requests were intrusive and unreasonable with no scientific justification or explanation given, and appeared to be a calculated strategy to divert Santer's attention and focus away from research. It's worth reading Santer's reaction to the hacked email affair to learn more. Given such tactics by McIntyre, Dr. Jones' resistance to FOI requests from McIntyre is understandable, but appears to have been poorly handled.

The science of human-caused global warming remains unaffected
None of the hacked emails reveal any conspiracy to publish falsified or "fudged" material in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. The science of human-caused global warming will require no revision as a result of this affair. Baseless accusations of fraud, data manipulation, and conspiracy against climate change scientists stemming from the hacked emails are being massively hyped by the Manufactured Doubt industry in an effort to discredit climate scientists, since no flaw with the science can be found. Most of the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad, so if you can create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion, you can win--or at least buy time, lots of it. The hacked email affair is all about politics, not science. Dr. Jones is an excellent scientist, but unfortunately was over-matched as a politician. It was hardly a fair fight--one scientist against the political might of the mightiest PR campaign against science ever waged, armed with some selectively culled stolen emails taken out of context.

Other posts in this series
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Next post
I'm working on a post called, "Don't shoot the messenger", and plan to run this Sunday or Monday.

Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, will be in Copenhagen for Monday's start to the crucial COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. Be sure to tune into his blog for updates on the talks. Wunderground has provided financial support for several University of Michigan students to attend the talks, and I may be featuring portions of their blogs over the coming weeks.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hurricanejunky:


And your point would be? Is there a CREDIBLE news source that is reporting this?
Those GW people are a bunch of criminals for wanting to make the planet a better place.
I sure wish all this outrage could be directed at people who are actually doing harm to the world such as oil companies, toxic waste dumpers or those who are deforesting. That would make too much sense.


Exactly. While there are very informed people on both sides of the debate, I see some personal agendas in some arguments, and quite a few mindless sheep following the opinion du jour.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Those of you in the FL Peninsula who felt jipped over the past couple days should feel better by lunchtime tomorrow.




Feeling better by lunchtime today! Great rain event shaping up right now...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting pearlandaggie:
856. Pearland, Texas....just south of Houston.

dam dude im in spring not getting that much grrr
Member Since: July 28, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 64
Quoting jeffs713:

Very true on that one. The best way to find out the truth is to check 2 or 3 different versions of the same story, and blend them all together.


A blend of CNN and MSNBC has always fit that bill for me. Fox, ehh, good for the Simpson's and the occasional football game, imo.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Very true on that one. The best way to find out the truth is to check 2 or 3 different versions of the same story, and blend them all together.


precisely, the drudge report is a good one
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Skyepony:
Latest from Hansen on the climate change talks.

It's like someone took off his gag when Bush left office. I think he'd have been fired for his civil disobedience & encouragement of it, to stop the business as usual under the last administration..


Yahoo! We'll all ultimately be better off for transparency in gov't. & science! Wanting the talks to fail, though, isn't that like wanting chaos until we can come up with a better form of government? How about setting goals and then following through? Kind of like JFK setting a goal/timeline to get to the moon?

Related (maybe) thought:
I loved it years ago when my son told me at least anarchy is a form of government! So I just looked it up. Anarchism doesn't look too bad, lol:

* Anarchy (Absence of organized government)
o Ochlocracy
o Tribalism

* Anarchism (Government of consent, not coercion)

Completely different thought (my brain on caffeine)...Skyepony, talked to Aqua the other day...really looking forward to growing tomatoes/veggies with both of you next year -- obviously, our growing season is a bit diff.
We had Vomitoxin this year, ugh, Irish potato famine disease -- but we still managed to get some decent stuff, enough for hubby to make some great pasta sauce!
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
updated shots to the ones posted earlier...




my palm tree is probably going, "WTF?! two years in a row?"


HOORAY for SE TX!! WOO-HOO!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting leftovers:
fox news said they have info that nasa has fudged some global readings over the past 40yrs that promoted gw


And your point would be? Is there a CREDIBLE news source that is reporting this?
Those GW people are a bunch of criminals for wanting to make the planet a better place.
I sure wish all this outrage could be directed at people who are actually doing harm to the world such as oil companies, toxic waste dumpers or those who are deforesting. That would make too much sense.
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GOES-8 Viz pic from 14:15 UTC

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Those of you in the FL Peninsula who felt jipped over the past couple days should feel better by lunchtime tomorrow.


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Quoting tornadodude:


I think that goes for the media in general, imo.

loving the snow pics! keep 'em coming (:

Very true on that one. The best way to find out the truth is to check 2 or 3 different versions of the same story, and blend them all together.
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Crestview, Florida is forecast to get some snow flurries after midnight while 25 miles to east at Defuniak Springs, Florida they are calling for just rain. Temps will be around 35 in Crestview, while in Defuniak it suppose to be around 38.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Fox news isn't really news any more. They don't present both sides of the case, and haven't for years. It is more of an opinion channel loosely based on current events.


I think that goes for the media in general, imo.

loving the snow pics! keep 'em coming (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting leftovers:
fox news said they have info that nasa has fudged some global readings over the past 40yrs that promoted gw

Fox news isn't really news any more. They don't present both sides of the case, and haven't for years. It is more of an opinion channel loosely based on current events.
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Quoting Patrap:


Looks close after Midnight here..maybe before. Were up to Baton Rouge for 5pm to pick up daughter with Broken foot and crutches to return to NOLA for weekend.
May have to dash in and out of BR as things look around 5-6hrs earlier in precip than forecasted.

Sorry to hear that about your daughter. Yes I have read things will go downhill sooner then previously thought. Dont want to be on the roads then for sure.
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Quoting alaina1085:

WHOO HOO!

Pat you think NOLA will see snow? its gonna be a close call.


Looks close after Midnight here..maybe before. Were up to Baton Rouge for 5pm to pick up daughter with Broken foot and crutches to return to NOLA for weekend.
May have to dash in and out of BR as things look around 5-6hrs earlier in precip than forecasted.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting pearlandaggie:
updated shots to the ones posted earlier...




my palm tree is probably going, "WTF?! two years in a row?"


Its really coming down.
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856. Pearland, Texas....just south of Houston.
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
updated shots to the ones posted earlier...




my palm tree is probably going, "WTF?! two years in a row?"


Wheres that at?
Member Since: July 28, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 64
FINALLY getting some much needed rain! Decent rain rate right now.
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updated shots to the ones posted earlier...




my palm tree is probably going, "WTF?! two years in a row?"
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836. Bravo Dr. Masters!
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Here comes the rain for St. Pete and Tampa...Wish it was snow, but its not.
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< The more the better. Its raining now in Winter Haven.FL.

Under a flood watch.

Bring it on.......................
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Snow has just begun in College Station! WHOOP (I have JPs)!!!!!

WHOO HOO!

Pat you think NOLA will see snow? its gonna be a close call.
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Gad-Zooks!..Can ya hear dat Snow a Falling Rudolph!!!






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
And, just in case that wasn't enough, there's more on the way. Could be a very wet & stormy next couple weeks.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY


LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE
MORNING COULD EVEN BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

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Snow has just begun in College Station! WHOOP (I have JPs)!!!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
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844. Skyepony (Mod)
Latest from Hansen on the climate change talks.

It's like someone took off his gag when Bush left office. I think he'd have been fired for his civil disobedience & encouragement of it, to stop the business as usual under the last administration..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39388
There is a big lake in the background in that Edna shot, cant see it but if you run the loop you will see yesterdays area of what it looks like out there
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OH SNAP!!! There is accumulation there!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Quoting RitaEvac:
Everybody watch this site during the day

http://www.instacam.com/InstaCAM/imagelist_by_week.asp?id=EDNAT


For those who don't know where Edna is, it is on US 59 between Victoria and El Campo, roughly south of Columbus, and about 70 miles SW of the Houston metro area.
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Im loving the snow pics! Keep em coming.

Pearl those are some chunky snow flakes!!
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Everybody watch this site during the day

http://www.instacam.com/InstaCAM/imagelist_by_week.asp?id=EDNAT

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Got it


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836. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting rjfl99:
First of all, I’m not a scientist, but with my one little year of meteorology in college (needed a science class), what I remember of my grade school study of the scientific method and a little common sense it astounds me that anyone could use a study of tree rings over a thousand years to try to bring the world’s economy to its knees. With all due respect, Dr Masters, the tree rings could have been affected by any number of things besides temperatures- droughts, volcanic eruptions, animals, man, different varieties of trees developed over the last few centuries, etc. Just what is the degree of error involved in tree ring measurement?


Hi, these are good questions. The errors in tree ring temperature estimates are large, and are shown by the yellow area on the "hockey stick" graph below. Note that current temperatures (red line) just exceed the highest temperatures (with greatest uncertainty added) from the Medieval Warm Period 800 - 900 A.D.



To use this data to extrapolate .1 deg global temperature changes over a thousand years is pure BS. Boreholes studies are probably about as accurate as tree ring measurement, as are all the other methods of measurement. Each source of data has a great deal of probability of error in it and a great deal of human judgment applied to it. And now we have “scientists” exposed manipulating the data to support their theories and trying to suppress others' views? This has barely been covered and quickly dropped by the mainstream media. It seems there is a great deal of “Manufactured Doubt” being put out by both sides.


The PR battle is certainly being waged by both sides, but as I explained in my "Manufactured Doubt" post, the fossil fuel industry outspent environmental groups by 14 to 1 in lobbying money last quarter. That's not even including the millions more spent on anti-climate change lobbying efforts by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and large industries besides the fossil fuel industry.

I don’t know if the earth is getting warmer or not due to human actions. It very well may be, but the data being used to create the hysteria is just a stack of cards. We only have good actual temperature measurement over what, the last hundred years or so? It just isn’t enough proof to me to be used as an excuse to lower the standard of living for most of mankind. A lot of “scientists” and “journalists” have a vested interest to cook the books so things come out their way. If there was no global warming a lot of people would be out of jobs. Can’t you see that the louder the elitists protest and look down their noses at anyone questioning their results the more it makes them look like they do have something to hide, or that they just don’t really have anything to go on at all?


It's always wise to follow the money when analyzing the motivations of people. However, scientists are less motivated by money than the typical person. Our top climate change scientists are easily some of the most brilliant people on the planet. They could have easily made fortunes on Wall Street devising intricate schemes to hawk sub-prime mortgages or leverage obscure derivatives. Yet these people chose climate science as a career, out of a genuine curiosity about how the world works and desire to help find the truth of whether human-caused climate change poses a significant threat to humanity. These people will always have jobs--they don't need to "cook the books" to create a false emergency. The planet will always have plenty of emergencies for these scientists to put their minds to. The charge that scientists are exaggerating the danger of human-caused global warming to get more funding is a personal attack on their integrity--a typical politician's ploy to avoid talking about the issues when you don't have a leg to stand on.

The problem with waiting to act is that there is a long time lag between when we put CO2 into the air and when the worst impacts occur--about 40 years. By the time it is obvious that serious damage is occurring, it is too late to avoid much harm. It's like going out in the sun and waiting until you get a sunburn to take action. The damage is already done, and you feel like a fool for having stayed out in the sun so long.

Jeff Masters
Honestly, if it can snow in places like Houston, New Orleans today, it can most definitely snow in Florida this year. The pattern is there, what a winter this will be! Maybe a 1989 pattern where a strong cold front stalls and develops a storms with the arctic air in place.. It can snow in Florida if that happens and the pattern looks like it could happen.
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Good morning! from:
Silver Spring, MD

Friday
Partly Cloudy
52 F | 36 F

Saturday
Snow(about an inch possible)
38 F | 27 F

Sunday, Game Day, Saints vs. 'skins
Cloudy
40 F | 27 F
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I cant
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Quoting RitaEvac:
My GOD Edna is like a blizzard

Can you post a webcam from the area or something of that nature?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Quoting pearlandaggie:
826. not yet...we had rain earlier. it is accumulating on cars and things like that. if this lasts long enough, i have no doubt it will begin to accumulate :)

No kidding, especially as long as y'all stay in the center of that band!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
My GOD Edna is like a blizzard
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Quoting sporteguy03:
Hi BAP,
What are the chances for more severe WX in FL?


I'm not BAP but, most likely not severe tonight. Borderline though, have to see how the area develops today.
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826. not yet...we had rain earlier. it is accumulating on cars and things like that. if this lasts long enough, i have no doubt it will begin to accumulate :)
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Quoting RitaEvac:
If you have weather bug check out Edna! it is piling up, and visibility down to less than 1/8th of mile....

Edna? They're outside the warning. That means there is still hope for me!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Quoting pearlandaggie:
the snow is really coming down now in Pearland. big, fat, wet snow flakes everywhere. pretty cool stuff!


Is it sticking to the ground?
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron