Embattled UK climate scientist steps down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on December 03, 2009

Share this Blog
3
+

The embattled director of the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (CRU), Dr. Phil Jones, announced that he will be temporarily standing aside as director. An independent review of his conduct in light of the emails illegally hacked from his computers last month is in progress. In a press release, Professor Jones said: "What is most important is that CRU continues its world leading research with as little interruption and diversion as possible. After a good deal of consideration I have decided that the best way to achieve this is by stepping aside from the Director's role during the course of the independent review and am grateful to the University for agreeing to this. The Review process will have my full support".

The University and the police are investigating the break-in, and it is currently unknown if this was the act of an insider or an external break-in. I think it is highly unlikely this was the work of an insider in a whistle-blower type of action, since a computer at realclimate.org was hacked into the same week (via a computer in Turkey), and the criminal attempted to upload the emails stolen from CRU to the realclimate.org server. This is not the sort of action a whistleblower would do. Dr. Gavin Schmidt of realclimate.org said in a comment yesterday that the CRU break-in appeared to have been done from the outside, into a backup mail server. It is unlikely the hacker acted alone, since hackers aren't typically intimately familiar with the details of the climate change science debate. The emails and code stolen were selectively culled by someone who appeared to have considerable expertise in climate science.

What did Dr. Jones do wrong?
So, what did Dr. Jones do wrong? For starters, he should have confronted the allegations raised by his critics immediately and talked candidly to the press about some of the specific accusations being made. For example, one of the emails contained the statement that he would like to "redefine what the peer-reviewed literature is" to exclude two questionable papers from the IPCC report. Well, that's not something a good scientist should seriously advocate, and is an impossibility, in any case. No one can redefine the peer-reviewed literature, since the rules for this are well-established an not subject to change. When I read the comment in the context it was made, it reads as a joke. There is no discussion in the hacked emails about how to go about redefining the peer-reviewed literature. In the end, the two papers Jones was referring to with this comment, McKitrick and Michaels (2004) and Kalnay and Cai (2003), ended up being cited and discussed in Chapter 2 of the IPCC AR4 report. Those intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming are spinning the comment differently, creating a controversy about something that is impossible to do, and was not being seriously suggested. Jones should have immediately spoken up to quash the hype on this comment.

The "trick" to "hide the decline"
Another area of concern is over a graph Dr. Jones helped construct in 1999 showing the "hockey stick" of Earth's surface temperature going back 1,000 years. This graph combined instrumental measurements made since the 1800s with older paleoclimate data (including data from tree rings) to show a continuous 1,000 year record of Earth's temperatures. The paleoclimate data after 1960 show a bogus decline in Earth's temperatures that does not agree with what modern thermometers have been measuring, due to a well-known variation in tree ring thickness as a function of time, referred to as "the decline". Thus, Jones elected to toss out the bogus paleoclimate data (using a "trick" to "hide the decline") rather than present it in the graph. The graph was not properly labeled to show this was done, so viewers of the graph would have had needed to be familiar with a 1998 paper published in Nature or the 1999 paper referenced in the caption on the graph, which explained this well-known data issue. The graph that Jones used his "trick" on was put into a 1999 report called the "WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate". The report was given to policy makers, but was never published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. No reputable climate scientist believes that the paleoclimate data since 1960 is of higher quality than the instrumental record (this is discussed in detail in Chapter 6 of the 2007 IPCC report). In order to make the "hokey stick" graph less confusing, removing "the decline" from the tree ring data is a reasonable thing to do--provided one labels the graph properly. The graph was not properly labeled. Does Jones' "trick" and failure to properly label the graph constitute data falsification, or was it merely sloppy science? The hacked emails contain no suggestions that the "trick" was done to intentionally fool people, and the "trick" never appeared in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, including the IPCC reports. In Dr. Jones' words, "This is well-known and is called the "decline" or "divergence". The use of the term "hiding the decline" was in an email written in haste. CRU has not sought to hide the decline. Indeed, CRU has published a number of articles that both illustrate, and discuss the implications of, this recent tree-ring decline, including the article that is listed in the legend of the WMO Statement figure".




Figure 1. The WMO 1999 "hockey stick" figure (top) with climate reconstructions and instrumental temperatures merged, and a version (bottom) with the climate reconstructions (coloured) and instrumental temperatures (annual & summer in black) shown separately. Note "the decline" in the temperature obtained from tree ring data (green curve) in the bottom curve. Image credit: University of East Anglia.

Global warming contrarians are spinning the "trick" as reason to discredit the "hockey stick", claiming that the data was falsified to hide the fact that tree rings were telling the real story. Since the hockey stick was falsified, some claim, the entire science behind human-caused global warming needs to be questioned. This is plain ludicrous. The graph was never published in a scientific journal. Several updated versions of the "hockey stick" graph have been published in the ten years since the disputed graph was produced, and the "hockey stick" can be reproduced in essentially the same form excluding the controversial tree rings, using other paleoclimate data such as boreholes (See Mann et al., 2008, Figure 2). Furthermore, the peer-reviewed science supporting human-caused global warming is not based solely upon the "hockey stick" and the CRU data used for the last 150 years of the hockey stick graph. There are three separate data sets of global temperatures maintained by NASA, the CRU, and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, that all show essentially the same global warming. We also have evidence from nature herself in the form of plants and animals expanding their ranges poleward, the record loss of Arctic sea ice in 2007 and record loss of multi-year Arctic sea ice this year, the shrinking of mountain glaciers, reductions in the length of freeze season in many Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers, the shifting of spring blooms earlier in most regions of the world, and on and on and on. Again, Jones should have spoken up immediately to kill the ridiculous hype being pushed by global warming contrarians about the importance of a 10-year old graph that is now scientifically irrelevant, and was never published.


Figure 2. The "hockey stick" of global temperature anomalies since 300 A.D., as published in a 2008 paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Mann et al.. Even if one excludes tree rings (blue curve), the hockey stick looks the same.

Resistance to releasing data to other researchers
The hacked emails also show that Dr. Jones resisted releasing his data to contrarians and urged others to delete emails regarding Freedom Of Information (FOI) related requests. Many countries protect their weather data under an international agreement called World Meteorological Organization Resolution 40, which prohibits the data from being made public (this is why wunderground can't give out the UKMET model forecasts on our web site, for example). About 5% of the CRU data fell in that category, making release illegal. However, deleting emails related to FOI requests is inadvisable and implies one has something to hide. The investigation should certainly pursue the issue of whether Dr. Jones properly handled the requests to turn over his data to outside researchers. Ideally, weather data documenting Earth's climate history should be free to everyone on the planet (I am not a big fan of WMO Resolution 40). However, another aspect to this issue is the time it takes for the scientists involved to prepare the data for release. Large, complicated data sets require extensive documentation and access to related computer codes in order to process them, and making the data available to every amateur investigator interested in the data puts an unfair burden on the scientists who maintain the data sets. In particular, an amateur climate science investigator named Stephen McIntyre, who runs the web site Climate Audit, has created such an issue. McIntyre, a retired mining executive and an investor, is not a professional scientist, but has been successful identifying several technical errors made in the published literature. He has also generated a huge amount of misleading and incorrect information over the years, and has done a tremendous amount of damage to the understanding of climate science. McIntyre is intent on discrediting the science of human-caused global warming--presumably for ideological reasons, since he has no obvious ties to the fossil fuel industry--and has generated a large number of Freedom of Information requests to further his cause. One of the hacked emails, from Dr. Ben Santer, complained that McIntyre's FOI requests were intrusive and unreasonable with no scientific justification or explanation given, and appeared to be a calculated strategy to divert Santer's attention and focus away from research. It's worth reading Santer's reaction to the hacked email affair to learn more. Given such tactics by McIntyre, Dr. Jones' resistance to FOI requests from McIntyre is understandable, but appears to have been poorly handled.

The science of human-caused global warming remains unaffected
None of the hacked emails reveal any conspiracy to publish falsified or "fudged" material in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. The science of human-caused global warming will require no revision as a result of this affair. Baseless accusations of fraud, data manipulation, and conspiracy against climate change scientists stemming from the hacked emails are being massively hyped by the Manufactured Doubt industry in an effort to discredit climate scientists, since no flaw with the science can be found. Most of the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad, so if you can create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion, you can win--or at least buy time, lots of it. The hacked email affair is all about politics, not science. Dr. Jones is an excellent scientist, but unfortunately was over-matched as a politician. It was hardly a fair fight--one scientist against the political might of the mightiest PR campaign against science ever waged, armed with some selectively culled stolen emails taken out of context.

Other posts in this series
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

Next post
I'm working on a post called, "Don't shoot the messenger", and plan to run this Sunday or Monday.

Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, will be in Copenhagen for Monday's start to the crucial COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. Be sure to tune into his blog for updates on the talks. Wunderground has provided financial support for several University of Michigan students to attend the talks, and I may be featuring portions of their blogs over the coming weeks.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 975 - 925

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Quoting IKE:
Entire state of Louisiana has winter weather advisories, excluding NO,LA and Houma...Link

That doesnt mean snow for everyone does it?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
974. IKE
Entire state of Louisiana has winter weather advisories, excluding NO,LA and Houma...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rather UNUSUAL to see Winter Storm Warnings like this!!

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
After Sunset,things are gonna go Nutz in a wide area,..
Lotsa tow trucks will be needed.


Baton Rouge should be fun around 5:30-6pm when we get there.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting hurricanejunky:


The fossil fuel industry never manipulates any data to try and make it seem as if their industry is perfectly harmless to the environment, right? Good Lord the hypocrisy and double standards on here are enough to induce vomiting.

Two wrongs make a right?

Is that what you are saying?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Any Louisiana snow reports yet?


Havent heard any. I read in Central LA they should expect snow after 3pm
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
969. IKE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1051 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...AN HISTORIC EARLY WINTER SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.AREAS OF RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES
MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. SNOW WILL BEGIN
MIXING WITH THE RAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH SNOW BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE HEAVIEST
TOTALS CURRENTLY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

SHOULD ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA...THIS WOULD BE THE
EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...AND SECOND EARLIEST ON RECORD IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
968. Inyo
we are always having things shoved down our throats. it is ridiculous to presume that this proves or disproves AGW. I also still don't understand what the pro-agw side has to gain... while the anti-agw side has SO MUCH to gain.

Also... snow in houston, no snow in Burlington, unless that storm is a bit west of where it is forecast, we may have our latest snowfall in recorded history (though it will almost certainly snow within a week)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Any Louisiana snow reports yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The chink in the armor for AGW is the way in which they are jamming it down everyone's throat.

In a court of law, not being forthcoming with the original data would be described as 'withholding evidence' and attempting to present the 'homogenized' data would be described as 'tampering with evidence'. Even a high school intern studying to be an attorney would have no trouble demanding the AGW crowd release all data before another day goes by.

Think not? AGW is attempting to steal our hard earned dollar on the pretext that we are all going to die if we don't go along with them. Yet, they steadfastly refuse to be open and transparent with the data or their methodology. Since when did they become gods?

We, the people of the world, are the ultimate 'judge and jury' and to withhold anything with which we can use to reach our own conclusion is simply a crime against us all. WE, the majority, the ENTIRE planet, have a right to decide which way we will go. To say that a mere handful can bully the rest of us is not right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Afternoon Everybody!

What are your thoughts on the snowfall along the East Coast tomorrow and Sunday?

Here's my little synopsis of the winter weather: Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AOI is developing nicely today. Should be an interesting evening in SFL.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
its 40.6 degrees now it was 40.8 a minute ago hmmm


Slowly falling temps, good sign, it may actually snow close by. You've gotta' admit, you're at 25N latitude, in a semi-tropical climate, (it will be 80F on Tuesday :0)).

My kids, who are grown used to complain about the lack of snow in DFW, TX. I used to tell them to move to Amarillo, TX. They have several snowstorms a yr/averaging 16IN snow/winter..
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting MississippiWx:
Thanks for the response! You and I seem to have the same opinion. I did notice on our latest forecast discussion that our forecasters noticed the increase in moisture on the GFS run. Take a look


No problem! yeah, it looks to be an interesting set up, to say the least :p
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting IKE:


I see Mobile and Crestview have it in their forecasts....


Here's Mobile...Tonight
Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening...then chance of light snow after midnight. Snow accumulation to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds 5 to 15 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.


Crestview....Tonight
Rain in the evening...then rain likely and chance of light snow after midnight. No snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph becoming 5 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.


Where are you located? I'm about 25 miles east of Crestview...and just slightly north of Crestview's longitude.

I'm over in Niceville.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone see the 300 hr 12z GFS? Dare to dream...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NCEP Models
Quoting tornadodude:


Hey! haha alright,

well, I'm not sure what to think about the current runs, the frequent flip-flopping of the GFS is somewhat confusing. In my opinion, the amount of moisture in your area is dependent on the exact track of this winter storm, if it tracks more to the north, then you will likely be drier. but if it tracks farther south, then you will tend to be moister. I think. :P Although, the NAM and GFS do seem to agree that you will have a moister environment, maybe giving you a chance for some heavier snow late tonight/early tomorrow morning. but, I am still not sure what to think in terms of accumulation, due to the warmer temps, and the recent rainfall that has probably kept the ground from cooling significantly. But, if the band of heavier snow sets up over you, then you may be in for a surprise, just have to see how similar scenarios in Texas and Louisiana pan out today, then base my forecast off of what I see develop there. This is just my opinion, obviously not an official forecast :P so that's my two cents worth,

hope it was informative!


Thanks for the response! You and I seem to have the same opinion. I did notice on our latest forecast discussion that our forecasters noticed the increase in moisture on the GFS run. Take a look:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1035 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...EARLY SEASON SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD AIRMASS
CONTINUES SUPPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH ARE ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. HOURLY
TEMPERATURE GRIDS WERE INCREASED BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA BASED ON
LATEST OBS THERE...THOUGH INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPS FROM GETTING ABOVE THE LOWER 40S IN THIS AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL TO THE 1000-1500 FEET
RANGE. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCLUDE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHERE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE THE STRONGEST AND OF
THE LONGEST DURATION. ALSO...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ENTER EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...AND THUS SKY
COVERAGE HAS BEEN REDUCED TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CONTINUES. LATEST SREF AND GFS ARE INDICATING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
RESULTING FROM SOME POTENTIAL SLANTWISE INSTABILITY AND BANDED
SNOW...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES. NO
CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY CONFIGURATION AT THIS
TIME. /COHEN/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah, that Joe Scarborough is nearly a commie he so left and msnbc all pinko's. Imagine that left leaning GE getting away with that propaganda.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alaina1085:


Thanks!


;-/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormChaser81:


They were saying because of them liberating those countries, it allowed them to prosper and export products. There werent saying anything bad at all.


Phew, Thanks, StormChaser!

Pat, my dad-in-law was a Army Air Corps pilot, and a POW, in Germany.
Dad was a Navy medic, attached to the Marines. Volunteered once for scouting duty, got shot by the Japanese.
Took us a long time to buy foreign cars.
Dad, and Pops, and I all have Toyotas presently.
SO glad they have factories in the USA now.

From a pinko socialist bleeding-heart liberal loud-mouthed yankee broad :) ... I hope you will please accept my utmost respect and thanks!

Back to SNOW...sorry for blog interruption but hope nobody minds, considering...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


12Z GFS


Thanks!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



FOX's opinion programing does lean to the right. Especially Hannity.
But MSNBC? Wayyyy left. More so than FOX is right. Also check the ratings. MSNBC is a joke.


I was only speaking of Fox. I agree MSNBC does lean left but not nearly as much as Fox leans right. Opinion programming is most of their broadcasts. Hannity, Beck, O'Reilly, etc. Honestly, I don't watch much of either Fox or MSNBC. I mostly watch CNN or CSPAN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I will make sure I have plenty of Zip Lock bags to collect Mississippi snow and keep it in the freezer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't worry, the attorney's will fix it. GHeeze

BTW, the GISS did admit they altered things in 2007.

NASA Faces FOI Lawsuit Over Climate Data

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Hey tornadodude! I read your comments a lot and they seem to be very educated, so I'm going to ask you for your opinion! :-)

If you look at the 00z and 6z GFS, you can notice across Southern portions of Mississippi that deeper moisture just isn't there. However, the deep moisture has been present on the NAM for several days now. The GFS has gone back and forth. The morning runs of the GFS were drier today. Do you believe that is why our NWS trended drier and with less accumulation? Take a look at the new 12z GFS. Does it not look wetter to you than the previous runs? The NAM is still consistent. Do you think the GFS could finally be picking up on the amount of deeper moisture that will be available? Thanks!

NCEP Models


Hey! haha alright,

well, I'm not sure what to think about the current runs, the frequent flip-flopping of the GFS is somewhat confusing. In my opinion, the amount of moisture in your area is dependent on the exact track of this winter storm, if it tracks more to the north, then you will likely be drier. but if it tracks farther south, then you will tend to be moister. I think. :P Although, the NAM and GFS do seem to agree that you will have a moister environment, maybe giving you a chance for some heavier snow late tonight/early tomorrow morning. but, I am still not sure what to think in terms of accumulation, due to the warmer temps, and the recent rainfall that has probably kept the ground from cooling significantly. But, if the band of heavier snow sets up over you, then you may be in for a surprise, just have to see how similar scenarios in Texas and Louisiana pan out today, then base my forecast off of what I see develop there. This is just my opinion, obviously not an official forecast :P so that's my two cents worth,

hope it was informative!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


12Z GFS


Still has the monster at the end of the run, hehe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
946. IKE
Quoting quakeman55:

I would like to know why though, but I haven't found a source yet that explains that. Nevertheless, I will be on snow watch tonight, and will immediately take snapshots if (WHEN) I see it.


I see Mobile and Crestview have it in their forecasts....


Here's Mobile...Tonight
Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening...then chance of light snow after midnight. Snow accumulation to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds 5 to 15 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.


Crestview....Tonight
Rain in the evening...then rain likely and chance of light snow after midnight. No snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph becoming 5 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.


Where are you located? I'm about 25 miles east of Crestview...and just slightly north of Crestview's longitude.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NWS is saying Snow in Florida, but late tonight.

Florida Snow

SSW Mc David FL

Tonight: Rain before midnight, then a chance of rain and snow. Low around 34. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
515 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.A STRONG GULF LOW...COMBINED WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING COMPLETELY TO SNOW. AT
THIS TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL NORTH OF THE I-12 CORRIDOR AND INCLUDES
THE BATON ROUGE METRO AREA...FLORIDA PARISHES...AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. CLOSER TO THE COAST IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE
NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN..SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN AN INCH.

LAZ040-MSZ080>082-041915-
/O.CON.KLIX.WW.Y.0001.091205T0000Z-091205T1200Z/
ST. TAMMANY-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...
LACOMBE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...
BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...
ST. MARTIN
515 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY...

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHATRAIN LATE
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY MIX SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL MAY CAUSE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF INCH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THESE AREAS AS WELL.

MAJOR CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
DANGEROUS ICING CONDITIONS MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

THE MENTIONED ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS... BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD MAKE DRIVING AND
WALKING DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS. WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING... MOTORISTS NEED
TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY
SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.

&&

$$




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alaina1085:
What time do the next GFS come out? I never can remember.


12Z GFS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Squid28:
Snowing near Galveston, coming down pretty heavy actually. Temperature 35 and falling..... Tonights performance... RedNecks on Ice (I will be a starring member I'm sure)


The new bridge linking Galveston Island to the mainland may become an "ICE SKATING RINK"!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
I travel with 2 cams religiously,always.
Will get some pics for sure.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Intelligence, Like all other observations,are relative to the observer.

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Patrap:


Were heading to Baton Rouge to Pick daughter up from LSU at 5 pm.Should be interesting trip..LOL


Bring your camera ans take plenty of pics..PLEASE be VERY CAREFUL, bridges and overpasses freeze up first..
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Man made global warming is a hoax to make money. Global Warming might be a reality, but the fact that we are the cause it is a LIE and "so called" scientist and meteorologist who preach this theory are either incompetent or are part of the hoax as the emails prove. this is not one person only it involves the whole entire movement, and all involved need to be investigated and sanctioned accordingly. As a matter of fact it is snowing in southern Louisiana and it is epected to snow on the Mississippi Gulf Coast tonight and it is not even winter yet. What you make of that? That global warming is the cause of the recent cooling? please give me a break and quit insulting my intelligence.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Snowing near Galveston, coming down pretty heavy actually. Temperature 35 and falling..... Tonights performance... RedNecks on Ice (I will be a starring member I'm sure)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
snowing in corpus christi wow!!


1-2-3******SURPRISE*****

Cold Artic air will continue to feed into this developing system. In Brownsville, TX the temp is 43F, how convienent, no dew point reported, last hour or so..Enough cold air may feed into your area for SNOW>>
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting tornadodude:


actually, a big reason why some of the best equipment comes from these countries is because of what our Vets did in the countries. They essentially liberated them and allowed them to become prosperous, self-sufficient, and technologically advanced.

+1 Thanks, Dad, and other Dad's & Grandpa's...oh can't forget WACs and WAVEs!
Now, bring it to me, bring your sweet love, bring it on home to me, yeah (Ray Charles?)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


I don't know...based on what this mornings forecasts are....no.

That could change though.

I would like to know why though, but I haven't found a source yet that explains that. Nevertheless, I will be on snow watch tonight, and will immediately take snapshots if (WHEN) I see it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
How do Liberating WW-2 Veterans enters the conversation here?

Without them,no one would be chatting here.


The Greatest Generation isnt a misnomer,its a Truism fact.


They were saying because of them liberating those countries, it allowed them to prosper and export products. There werent saying anything bad at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In Houston we think the sky is falling and are panicking accordingly....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:
Soooooo..... there is a record winter storm going on in Texas right now.... :P


Hey tornadodude! I read your comments a lot and they seem to be very educated, so I'm going to ask you for your opinion! :-)

If you look at the 00z and 6z GFS, you can notice across Southern portions of Mississippi that deeper moisture just isn't there. However, the deep moisture has been present on the NAM for several days now. The GFS has gone back and forth. The morning runs of the GFS were drier today. Do you believe that is why our NWS trended drier and with less accumulation? Take a look at the new 12z GFS. Does it not look wetter to you than the previous runs? The NAM is still consistent. Do you think the GFS could finally be picking up on the amount of deeper moisture that will be available? Thanks!

NCEP Models
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alaina1085:


ROFL
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

LOL, we're talking about broadcasting now, T-Dude! Take off that CC/AGW filter :) you sports/meteorology/wannabe crazy Accuweather guy! (JUST kidding, if I was his producer/audio tech I'd put up a "Trouble" slate whenever he was on!)


LOL well maybe that will be me someday! :P I certainly hope not! I feel like the filter is better left on :)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Bordonaro:
915. Patrap..There is cold Arctic air that is feeding into this developing storm system. Although the NOLA dewpoint is 39F, it may actually drop during the day..You may be in for aurprise!!


Were heading to Baton Rouge to Pick daughter up from LSU at 5 pm.Should be interesting trip..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
What time do the next GFS come out? I never can remember.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting tornadodude:
Soooooo..... there is a record winter storm going on in Texas right now.... :P

LOL, we're talking about broadcasting now, T-Dude! Take off that CC/AGW filter :) you sports/meteorology/wannabe crazy Accuweather guy! (JUST kidding, if I was his producer/audio tech I'd put up a "Trouble" slate whenever he was on!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
915. Patrap..There is cold Arctic air that is feeding into this developing storm system. Although the NOLA dewpoint is 39F, it may actually drop during the day..You may be in for aurprise!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

Viewing: 975 - 925

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.