Fierce storm hammers Southeast U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on December 02, 2009

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The Southeast U.S. is under the gun today from a combination of severe thunderstorms, high winds, heavy rain, and coastal storm surge flooding. A tornado was reported on the ground near Eglin Air Force Base, Florida this morning, and tornado warnings have been posted for two separate squall lines moving through the Florida Panhandle and neighboring regions of Alabama and Georgia. These squall lines are expected to intensify and generate tornadoes, heavy rain, and strong winds as they push eastwards today. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put most of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina in their "Slight Risk" category for severe weather today, warning of the possibility of supercell thunderstorms capable of spawning tornadoes. If the air mass in front of these squall lines becomes sufficiently unstable this afternoon due to solar heating of the lower atmosphere and other factors, SPC may need to upgrade their severe weather category to "Moderate Risk", the second highest level of risk.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the December 2 storm. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

The storm's powerful winds blowing over the Gulf of Mexico have created storm surges of 2 - 3 feet along the coast, from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle. A storm surge of two feet was recorded in Waveland, Mississippi last night and this morning, which caused flooding of low-lying roads in Hancock County. New Orleans recorded 2.42" of rain yesterday from the storm, breaking their record for the rainiest December 1. Radar-estimated rainfall (Figure 2) shows up to five inches of rain has fallen over some regions of the Florida Panhandle, and additional rainfall amounts of 2 - 5 inches are expected along the track of the storm as it heads north-northeast today. Flash flooding was reported in Charleston, SC this morning, closing several roads.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from the December 2 Gulf Coast storm.

Also receiving a pounding from the storm were the Gulf Coast beaches from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola. A storm surge of two feet, topped by battering waves 10 - 12 feet high, probably caused millions of dollars of erosion damage last night and this morning. A 16-mile stretch of man-made beach encompassing the Alabama coastal communities of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach suffered $5 million in erosion damage from the pounding delivered by Tropical Storm Ida last month. The two beach communities, along with Gulf State Park, spent about $24.2 million in 2005 to strengthen 16 miles of shoreline by dredging about 6 million cubic yards of sand from the sea floor and dumping it on shore. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in 2008 did about $9.5 million in erosion damage to the Gulf Shores beach. Because the beach is man-made, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Alabama Emergency Management Agency treated it as they do bridges and highways, paying 85 percent of the tab to repair storm damage.

You can follow today's severe weather outbreak with our Severe Weather and Tornado pages.

Second Annual Portlight Honor Walk this weekend
When:
Saturday, December 5, 2009 or Sunday, December 6, 2009

What:
A nationwide grassroots event to raise funds for and awareness of Portlight's ongoing efforts specifically aimed at providing Christmas presents for kids and families devastated by the recent Atlanta floods, South Carolina wildfires, American Samoa tsunami, and other disasters that may occur.

Why:
Un-served, underserved and forgotten people are depending on us.

How:
We need one hundred people across the country to commit to walking one mile on this day, and to raise at least $300.00 in sponsorship from friends, family, co-workers, neighbors, etc. Participants can choose where to walk--it can be the park, the mall the neighborhood--anywhere you choose. The first 100 participants to raise at least $300 will receive a commemorative T-Shirt.

To register, simply e-mail your intention to participate at paul@portlight.org

Check the Portlight featured Weather Underground Blog regularly for updates!

The Honor Walk Sponsor Form available here will help you keep track of funds and pledges:
http://www.portlight.org/images/walkerform.pdf

Next post
The embattled director of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the UK's University of East Anglia announced that he will be temporarily standing aside as director until an independent review resulting from allegations following the publication of emails illegally hacked from his computers. I'll be posting a response tonight or Thursday morning, assuming that today's storm does not generate a deadly tornado outbreak. I'm also working on a post titled, "Don't Shoot the Messenger", in response to charges by the Wall Street Journal in an editorial yesterday that climate scientists have a vested interest in promoting alarmist views of the climate in order to get research funding.

Jeff Masters

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793. CybrTeddy
3:48 AM GMT on December 25, 2009
Night everyone! Hope Santa brings you everything you want!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23013
792. beachman42
9:20 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Any good radar pics. of the storm heading toward Central Florida.

We are under a flood watch through Sat. for 4 to 6 inches of rain the next 2 days.

Any other thoughts on this system.

Thanks
Member Since: June 3, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 14
791. AwakeInMaryland
4:04 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Whoopsie, NEW Dr. Jeff BLOG.
Looks like it could be one of those Debate Days.
Enter at Your Own Risk :)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
789. AwakeInMaryland
3:57 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
787. Child Weather "Medium"? Way Cool.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
788. AwakeInMaryland
3:54 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Quoting BayouBorn1965:
Since our New Orleans Saints are 11-0, do you think that means we'll get snow? :)


Well, when you watch your team play Sunday you might see some around the Stadium!

Odds aren't bad they'll be playing on some snow on Sunday:
FED EX Field area, Saturday night
Overnight Low
27°F
Snow Shower
Precip
60%

Odds are better they'll be 12-0
Deadskins pffft.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
787. atmoaggie
3:46 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
I broke down and asked my 5-year-old about the possibility of snow. He said maybe...

I read that to mean he thinks it might happen, but doesn't expect anything to accumulate.

I trust his snow forecasts after he totally called for last year's snow more than 2 weeks in advance...and he was adamant and definitive about that one. Used words like "It will" vs. maybe or could.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
786. RitaEvac
3:40 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
new mexico and panhandle of Texas
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
785. RitaEvac
3:39 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Its already beginning and it hasnt even tapped the gulf moisture, thats a sign

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
783. jeffs713
3:24 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Quoting txag91met:
Looks like Houston 1/4-1"...Baton Rouge may end up with 2-3".

NWS is calling for isolated areas of 2-3". Based on the discussion, they are going more strongly with the GFS, which is forecasting the most snow. The ECMWF is the least aggressive with the snow (calling for a trace), and the NAM is in the middle (isolated totals of an inch).
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
782. NEwxguy
3:08 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Quoting Jeff9641:


Snow is heading your way in a few days. 65 to snow only in New England! Although there might might be more snow in the south then up north go figure. Someone in the south is going to get dumped on!!! Maybe up to 8" in localized areas.


Yeh,not sure how much we will get,plus ocean is still pretty warm,so without any artic air around,could end up with a mixture,and depending on the track.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
781. stormsurge39
3:05 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
What about snow in Mobile Al.?
779. peejodo
2:58 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Quoting IKE:
I went back and looked at the precip totals for the month of November....

Jacksonville,FL. had .88 inches for November.

Tampa,FL. had .67 inches for November.

Orlando,FL. had 1.18 inches for November.

Miami,FL. had 2.97 inches for November.

Pensacola,FL. had 4.91 inches for November.
Osteen, FL. had .62 inches for November. We only had .46 for October. WoW are we dry
Member Since: February 13, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 77
778. NEwxguy
2:52 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
65,in the boston area,wonder when we'll see that temp again,April 15th.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
777. BayouBorn1965
2:49 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Since our New Orleans Saints are 11-0, do you think that means we'll get snow? :)
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
776. txag91met
2:48 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Looks like Houston 1/4-1"...Baton Rouge may end up with 2-3".
Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 746
775. hurricanejunky
2:45 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Good Morning Ike, Question for you. Do you think these fronts that come thru cen s fl loose there punch because we have been in a drought since the middle of 2005. In other words not alot of ground moisture. What do you think

No. The reason why the system lost its punch is because the energy (low) was lifting northward while the front (squall line) was dropping southeast. The system simply lost its energy.

Let's see what happens over the next 2 days. A new low is expected to form and travel with its energy across the state giving widespread 2-5 inch rains with a possibility of stronger storms on Saturday.


Interesting observation. I noticed it too. The winds yesterday afternoon were vicious but then around sundown they died down. Think that may have been when the separation occurred?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
774. pearlandaggie
2:45 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
773. AussieStorm
2:44 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Lightning Impact Statement
THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES COULD BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH. IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER MOVE INSIDE UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED BY.

Please heed this warning... dont end up a victim of a lightning strike like myself. It's the worst thing to ever happen to me.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
772. hurricanejunky
2:43 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Quoting Buhdog:
Hey Junky.....I called that one huh? We got a little more drizzle than i expected... but still not much here in SWFL. Lets hope round 2 is indeed further south for us. I only heard one thunder in Cape Coral last night loud enough to wrassle me awake!


Good call. I figured as much too because it always seems like we miss out on serious rain no matter how likely it seems that we'll get it. I sleep like a rock but my wife sleeps relatively lightly and neither of us were awoken by any storm activity. .31" is better than nothing though! Keep your fingers crossed!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
771. Magicchaos
2:35 PM GMT on December 03, 2009


SPC AC 030748

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CST THU DEC 03 2009

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT NEGATIVELY TITLED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM
THE MS/AL AREA NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...IN RESPONSE TO
EVOLVING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MODELS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING NEWD FROM THE ERN GULF
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN FL...THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE NATION SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

...FL PENINSULA...
ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST FORCING WILL PASS NORTH OF FL...CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRUSHING AREA SHOULD SUPPORT A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION...MAINLY
BETWEEN 12Z-20Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 50 TO 60 KT AND MLCAPES FROM
1000-2000 J/KG FAVOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. ALSO...STRONGLY VEERED WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM...ALONG
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KT WINDS IN THE LOWER 100 MB YIELDS 1KM
SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. THEREFORE...A THREAT FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS CO-LOCATED
OR LOCATED AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW.

..IMY.. 12/03/2009

Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
769. CaneWarning
2:34 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
The storms coming through last night were really funny. Not much to them other than rain. At least for Tampa.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
768. TheCaneWhisperer
2:23 PM GMT on December 03, 2009


Lightning Impact Statement
THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES COULD BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH. IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER MOVE INSIDE UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED BY.
767. TheCaneWhisperer
2:17 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
With the front not being through the area yet, not even past lake O. I wonder if Daytime heating will play more of a part now?
766. NEwxguy
2:12 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
I guess we got all your rain up here in New England,lots of flooded roadways this morning coming to work.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
765. Buhdog
2:09 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Hey Junky.....I called that one huh? We got a little more drizzle than i expected... but still not much here in SWFL. Lets hope round 2 is indeed further south for us. I only heard one thunder in Cape Coral last night loud enough to wrassle me awake!
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 958
764. unf97
2:07 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Good morning everyone.

The total rainfall amount here on my gauge registered just over 1 inch here in North Jax. All of the severe weather reports yesterday and last night were mainly just north of here in Georgia, SC and NC.

I took a look at the ECMWF this morning. This model not as aggressive as the GFS in regards to the GOM system/ upper shortwave for Friday -Saturday period. ECMWF not nearly as moist as the GFS. GFS rather aggressive with showing abundant moisture. Possible 2 inch snowfall amounts in some pockets GFS is forecasting with a swath at or just north of a line along Interstate 10
from interior SE TX , through Louisiana, and up into Jackson, MS. Looks more like wintry mix possible right along the immediate coast.
Most of the WFOs in these areas are apparently going to remain biased toward the GFS for this upcoming event. Should it verifies. Yeah, could be for the second year in arow in early December a very significant Deep Dixie snowfall. Amazing indeed.

I am awaiting the later runs today to see how this may pan out for the Piedmont region of the Carolinas. I will be traveling to Charlotte tomorrow and be there over the weekend. I will be curious to see if the emerging Low Pressure that will begin moving off the SE Atlantic coast on Saturday. There may be some moisture lifting north in the Piedmont as the Low passes that area off the coast. This system may advect enough cold air advection up in that area for brief period of wintry weather there on Saturday.

Have a great day everyone.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
763. hurricanejunky
1:46 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Quoting Jeff9641:


Don't worry because Fort Myers could pick up a couple inches of rain tomorrow. Heaviest rain will be just ot the north though with 4" plus.


I'll take whatever I can get. The fruit trees are THIRSTY!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
761. hurricanejunky
1:38 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Morning all! From North Ft. Myers, FL:
rainfall total overnight: .31"
Highest gust: 22mph.

What a jip!
In typical fashion the rain fizzled mostly before it reached us. Thankfully so did any severe weather.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
760. TheCaneWhisperer
1:30 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Quoting Jeff9641:
We did get some heavy rain last night in Orlando, which was great! It looks as if a much larger rain event is on the way. Computer models are printing 4 to as much as 6" of rain all across Central Florida Fri. & Sat. Flash flooding of low lying areas seems to be a concern. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some strong to severe thunderstorms as well. Central Florida appears to be the bulls-eye on this one.


Looking at the GFS, I think your right. So close here in PBC but not close enough to see anything appreciable.
758. HurricaneNewbie
1:19 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Good morning. 46 here. We had about 2.7 inches of rain. Last year we were in a drought. Now Atlanta is becoming a rain forest.
I see some snow is predicted for Saturday. Wondering what the bloggers feel about that forecast.
Member Since: September 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
756. severstorm
1:12 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Hey Ike, Heres a good one. I live 40 miles ne of Tampa and i had for the month of november 2.82 inches of rain.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
755. severstorm
1:03 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Cane and Ike, thank you for your imput. Its been quite awhile since i saw storms make it all the way across fl.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
754. IKE
1:03 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
I went back and looked at the precip totals for the month of November....

Jacksonville,FL. had .88 inches for November.

Tampa,FL. had .67 inches for November.

Orlando,FL. had 1.18 inches for November.

Miami,FL. had 2.97 inches for November.

Pensacola,FL. had 4.91 inches for November.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
753. IKE
12:56 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Morning.

That's exactly it. As the upper low travels further and further to the NNE, the surface reflection becomes nothing but a decaying frontal boundary. If you notice the 1993 outbreak the parent low traveled ENE out of the GOM over North FLA.

This current storm traveled much further inland and to the N and W than originally modeled, hence the lack of rain/storms in the lower peninsula. I doubt we'll get anything from this today. On the other hand, the disturbance forecast to develop in the GOM today may pack more of a punch to the lower peninsula than the current one as it is forecast to travel ENE.



Looks that way.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
752. TheCaneWhisperer
12:51 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Not sure about that. I would doubt it.

Looks like they lose upper level support. Support seems to be going ENE to NE.


Morning.

That's exactly it. As the upper low travels further and further to the NNE, the surface reflection becomes nothing but a decaying frontal boundary. If you notice the 1993 outbreak the parent low traveled ENE out of the GOM over North FLA.

This current storm traveled much further inland and to the N and W than originally modeled, hence the lack of rain/storms in the lower peninsula. I doubt we'll get anything from this today. On the other hand, the disturbance forecast to develop in the GOM today may pack more of a punch to the lower peninsula than the current one as it is forecast to travel ENE.
750. IKE
12:36 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
549 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-032130-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...
LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...
RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...
METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...
VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...
GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...
YSCLOSKEY...CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...
CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...
WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...
OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
549 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD AIRMASS IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN ALL SNOW LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND SUNSET FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FROM BAYOU SORREL TO HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT. THIS
INCLUDES THE BATON ROUGE METROPOLITAN AREA. A SNOW SLEET MIX
SHOULD EXIST ALONG A LINE FROM THIBODAUX TO SAUCIER MISSISSIPPI AT
MIDNIGHT INCLUDING THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A RAIN
SLEET MIX SHOULD EXIST ALONG A LINE FROM HOUMA TO OCEAN SPRINGS
MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT...INCLUDING THE SOUTHSHORE AREA OF
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...GULFPORT AND BILOXI. ACCUMULATIONS OF
ANY WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE NO GREATER
THAN ONE INCH WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THIBODAUX TO SAUCIER MISSISSIPPI.

THE LARGEST PROBLEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIPITATION FREEZING ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS BECOMING A TRAVEL
HAZARD. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY OR
EARLY FRIDAY.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
749. tornadofan
12:26 PM GMT on December 03, 2009
Well - for all those hoping for severe weather in Florida yesterday, but sad from the lack of it...

Maybe Saturday?

Day 3 Outlook
Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
748. aquak9
11:52 AM GMT on December 03, 2009
g'morning WU-bloggers...

here in Jax, north of Ponte Vedra Beach, we ended up with right at an inch. Nothing eventful.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25507
747. severstorm
11:41 AM GMT on December 03, 2009
Good point thanks
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
746. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:40 AM GMT on December 03, 2009
Fiji Meteorological Services
Marine Bulletin
18:00 PM FST Decemeber 3 2009
===================================

WEAK LOW [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 08S 178W.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43684
745. IKE
11:40 AM GMT on December 03, 2009
Quoting severstorm:
Good Morning Ike, Question for you. Do you think these fronts that come thru cen s fl loose there punch because we have been in a drought since the middle of 2005. In other words not alot of ground moisture. What do you think.


Not sure about that. I would doubt it.

Looks like they lose upper level support. Support seems to be going ENE to NE.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
744. IKE
11:38 AM GMT on December 03, 2009
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009


DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. WITH THIS PATTERN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF...AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE
WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE THIS SYSTEM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY CHANGING
OVER THE LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET AT TIMES MOSTLY OVER INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA....GENERALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO CAMDEN
ALABAMA.
AT THIS TIME LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH
MAYBE AN INCH OVER SOME GRASSY SURFACES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN THROUGHOUT
TODAY AND TOMORROW.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
743. severstorm
11:37 AM GMT on December 03, 2009
Good Morning Ike, Question for you. Do you think these fronts that come thru cen s fl loose there punch because we have been in a drought since the middle of 2005. In other words not alot of ground moisture. What do you think.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.