The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy
In 1954, the tobacco industry realized it had a serious problem. Thirteen scientific studies had been published over the preceding five years linking smoking to lung cancer. With the public growing increasingly alarmed about the health effects of smoking, the tobacco industry had to move quickly to protect profits and stem the tide of increasingly worrisome scientific news. Big Tobacco turned to one the world's five largest public relations firms, Hill and Knowlton, to help out. Hill and Knowlton designed a brilliant Public Relations (PR) campaign to convince the public that smoking is not dangerous. They encouraged the tobacco industry to set up their own research organization, the Council for Tobacco Research (CTR), which would produce science favorable to the industry, emphasize doubt in all the science linking smoking to lung cancer, and question all independent research unfavorable to the tobacco industry. The CTR did a masterful job at this for decades, significantly delaying and reducing regulation of tobacco products. George Washington University epidemiologist David Michaels, who is President Obama's nominee to head the Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA), wrote a meticulously researched 2008 book called, Doubt is Their Product: How Industry's Assault on Science Threatens Your Health. In the book, he wrote: "the industry understood that the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad. Create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion. Throw mud at the anti-smoking research under the assumption that some of it is bound to stick. And buy time, lots of it, in the bargain". The title of Michaels' book comes from a 1969 memo from a tobacco company executive: "Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy". Hill and Knowlton, on behalf of the tobacco industry, had founded the "Manufactured Doubt" industry.
The Manufactured Doubt industry grows up
As the success of Hill and Knowlton's brilliant Manufactured Doubt campaign became apparent, other industries manufacturing dangerous products hired the firm to design similar PR campaigns. In 1967, Hill and Knowlton helped asbestos industry giant Johns-Manville set up the Asbestos Information Association (AIA). The official-sounding AIA produced "sound science" that questioned the link between asbestos and lung diseases (asbestos currently kills 90,000 people per year, according to the World Health Organization). Manufacturers of lead, vinyl chloride, beryllium, and dioxin products also hired Hill and Knowlton to devise product defense strategies to combat the numerous scientific studies showing that their products were harmful to human health.
By the 1980s, the Manufactured Doubt industry gradually began to be dominated by more specialized "product defense" firms and free enterprise "think tanks". Michaels wrote in Doubt is Their Product about the specialized "product defense" firms: "Having cut their teeth manufacturing uncertainty for Big Tobacco, scientists at ChemRisk, the Weinberg Group, Exponent, Inc., and other consulting firms now battle the regulatory agencies on behalf of the manufacturers of benzene, beryllium, chromium, MTBE, perchlorates, phthalates, and virtually every other toxic chemical in the news today....Public health interests are beside the point. This is science for hire, period, and it is extremely lucrative".
Joining the specialized "product defense" firms were the so-called "think tanks". These front groups received funding from manufacturers of dangerous products and produced "sound science" in support of their funders' products, in the name of free enterprise and free markets. Think tanks such as the George C. Marshall Institute, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Heartland Institute, and Dr. Fred Singer's SEPP (Science and Environmental Policy Project) have all been active for decades in the Manufactured Doubt business, generating misleading science and false controversy to protect the profits of their clients who manufacture dangerous products.
The ozone hole battle
In 1975, the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) industry realized it had a serious problem. The previous year, Sherry Rowland and Mario Molina, chemists at the University of California, Irvine, had published a scientific paper warning that human-generated CFCs could cause serious harm to Earth's protective ozone layer. They warned that the loss of ozone would significantly increase the amount of skin-damaging ultraviolet UV-B light reaching the surface, greatly increasing skin cancer and cataracts. The loss of stratospheric ozone could also significantly cool the stratosphere, potentially causing destructive climate change. Although no stratospheric ozone loss had been observed yet, CFCs should be banned, they said. The CFC industry hired Hill and Knowlton to fight back. As is essential in any Manufactured Doubt campaign, Hill and Knowlton found a respected scientist to lead the effort--noted British scientist Richard Scorer, a former editor of the International Journal of Air Pollution and author of several books on pollution. In 1975, Scorer went on a month-long PR tour, blasting Molina and Rowland, calling them "doomsayers", and remarking, "The only thing that has been accumulated so far is a number of theories." To complement Scorer's efforts, Hill and Knowlton unleashed their standard package of tricks learned from decades of serving the tobacco industry:
- Launch a public relations campaign disputing the evidence.
- Predict dire economic consequences, and ignore the cost benefits.
- Use non-peer reviewed scientific publications or industry-funded scientists who don't publish original peer-reviewed scientific work to support your point of view.
- Trumpet discredited scientific studies and myths supporting your point of view as scientific fact.
- Point to the substantial scientific uncertainty, and the certainty of economic loss if immediate action is taken.
- Use data from a local area to support your views, and ignore the global evidence.
- Disparage scientists, saying they are playing up uncertain predictions of doom in order to get research funding.
- Disparage environmentalists, claiming they are hyping environmental problems in order to further their ideological goals.
- Complain that it is unfair to require regulatory action in the U.S., as it would put the nation at an economic disadvantage compared to the rest of the world.
- Claim that more research is needed before action should be taken.
- Argue that it is less expensive to live with the effects.
The campaign worked, and CFC regulations were delayed many years, as Hill and Knowlton boasted in internal documents. The PR firm also took credit for keeping public opinion against buying CFC aerosols to a minimum, and helping change the editorial positions of many newspapers.
In the end, Hill and Knowlton's PR campaign casting doubt on the science of ozone depletion by CFCs turned out to have no merit. Molina and Rowland were awarded the Nobel Prize in 1995. The citation from the Nobel committee credited them with helping to deliver the Earth from a potential environmental disaster.
The battle over global warming
In 1988, the fossil fuel industry realized it had a serious problem. The summer of 1988 had shattered century-old records for heat and drought in the U.S., and NASA's Dr. James Hansen, one of the foremost climate scientists in the world, testified before Congress that human-caused global warming was partially to blame. A swelling number of scientific studies were warning of the threat posed by human-cause climate change, and that consumption of fossil fuels needed to slow down. Naturally, the fossil fuel industry fought back. They launched a massive PR campaign that continues to this day, led by the same think tanks that worked to discredit the ozone depletion theory. The George C. Marshall Institute, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, Heartland Institute, and Dr. Fred Singer's SEPP (Science and Environmental Policy Project) have all been key players in both fights, and there are numerous other think tanks involved. Many of the same experts who had worked hard to discredit the science of the well-established link between cigarette smoke and cancer, the danger the CFCs posed to the ozone layer, and the dangers to health posed by a whole host of toxic chemicals, were now hard at work to discredit the peer-reviewed science supporting human-caused climate change.
As is the case with any Manufactured Doubt campaign, a respected scientist was needed to lead the battle. One such scientist was Dr. Frederick Seitz, a physicist who in the 1960s chaired the organization many feel to be the most prestigious science organization in the world--the National Academy of Sciences. Seitz took a position as a paid consultant for R.J. Reynolds tobacco company beginning in 1978, so was well-versed in the art of Manufactured Doubt. According to the excellent new book, Climate Cover-up, written by desmogblog.com co-founder James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore, over a 10-year period Seitz was responsible for handing out $45 million in tobacco company money to researchers who overwhelmingly failed to link tobacco to anything the least bit negative. Seitz received over $900,000 in compensation for his efforts. He later became a founder of the George C. Marshall Institute, and used his old National Academy of Sciences affiliation to lend credibility to his attacks on global warming science until his death in 2008 at the age of ninety-six. It was Seitz who launched the "Oregon Petition", which contains the signatures of more than 34,000 scientists saying global warming is probably natural and not a crisis. The petition is a regular feature of the Manufactured Doubt campaign against human-caused global warming. The petition lists the "Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine" as its parent organization. According to Climate Cover-up, the Institute is a farm shed situated a couple of miles outside of Cave Junction, OR (population 17,000). The Institute lists seven faculty members, two of whom are dead, and has no ongoing research and no students. It publishes creationist-friendly homeschooler curriculums books on surviving nuclear war. The petition was sent to scientists and was accompanied by a 12-page review printed in exactly the same style used for the prestigious journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. A letter from Seitz, who is prominently identified as a former National Academy of Sciences president, accompanied the petition and review. Naturally, many recipients took this to be an official National Academy of Sciences communication, and signed the petition as a result. The National Academy issued a statement in April 2008, clarifying that it had not issued the petition, and that its position on global warming was the opposite. The petition contains no contact information for the signers, making it impossible to verify. In its August 2006 issue, Scientific American presented its attempt to verify the petition. They found that the scientists were almost all people with undergraduate degrees, with no record of research and no expertise in climatology. Scientific American contacted a random sample of 26 of the 1,400 signatories claiming to have a Ph.D. in a climate related science. Eleven said they agreed with the petition, six said they would not sign the petition today, three did not remember the petition, one had died, and five did not respond.
I could say much more about the Manufactured Doubt campaign being waged against the science of climate change and global warming, but it would fill an entire book. In fact, it has, and I recommend reading Climate Cover-up to learn more. The main author, James Hoggan, owns a Canadian public relations firm, and is intimately familiar with how public relations campaigns work. Suffice to say, the Manufactured Doubt campaign against global warming--funded by the richest corporations in world history--is probably the most extensive and expensive such effort ever. We don't really know how much money the fossil fuel industry has pumped into its Manufactured Doubt campaign, since they don't have to tell us. The website exxonsecrets.org estimates that ExxonMobil alone spent $20 million between 1998 - 2007 on the effort. An analysis done by Desmogblog's Kevin Grandia done in January 2009 found that skeptical global warming content on the web had doubled over the past year. Someone is paying for all that content.
Lobbyists, not skeptical scientists
The history of the Manufactured Doubt industry provides clear lessons in evaluating the validity of their attacks on the published peer-reviewed climate change science. One should trust that the think tanks and allied "skeptic" bloggers such as Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit and Anthony Watts of Watts Up With That will give information designed to protect the profits of the fossil fuel industry. Yes, there are respected scientists with impressive credentials that these think tanks use to voice their views, but these scientists have given up their objectivity and are now working as lobbyists. I don't like to call them skeptics, because all good scientists should be skeptics. Rather, the think tanks scientists are contrarians, bent on discrediting an accepted body of published scientific research for the benefit of the richest and most powerful corporations in history. Virtually none of the "sound science" they are pushing would ever get published in a serious peer-reviewed scientific journal, and indeed the contrarians are not scientific researchers. They are lobbyists. Many of them seem to believe their tactics are justified, since they are fighting a righteous war against eco-freaks determined to trash the economy.
I will give a small amount of credit to some of their work, however. I have at times picked up some useful information from the contrarians, and have used it to temper my blogs to make them more balanced. For example, I no longer rely just on the National Climatic Data Center for my monthly climate summaries, but instead look at data from NASA and the UK HADCRU source as well. When the Hurricane Season of 2005 brought unfounded claims that global warming was to blame for Hurricane Katrina, and a rather flawed paper by researchers at Georgia Tech showing a large increase in global Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, I found myself agreeing with the contrarians' analysis of the matter, and my blogs at the time reflected this.
The contrarians and the hacked CRU emails
A hacker broke into an email server at the Climate Research Unit of the UK's University of East Anglia last week and posted ten years worth of private email exchanges between leading scientists who've published research linking humans to climate change. Naturally, the contrarians have seized upon this golden opportunity, and are working hard to discredit several of these scientists. You'll hear claims by some contrarians that the emails discovered invalidate the whole theory of human-caused global warming. Well, all I can say is, consider the source. We can trust the contrarians to say whatever is in the best interests of the fossil fuel industry. What I see when I read the various stolen emails and explanations posted at Realclimate.org is scientists acting as scientists--pursuing the truth. I can see no clear evidence that calls into question the scientific validity of the research done by the scientists victimized by the stolen emails. There is no sign of a conspiracy to alter data to fit a pre-conceived ideological view. Rather, I see dedicated scientists attempting to make the truth known in face of what is probably the world's most pervasive and best-funded disinformation campaign against science in history. Even if every bit of mud slung at these scientists were true, the body of scientific work supporting the theory of human-caused climate change--which spans hundreds of thousands of scientific papers written by tens of thousands of scientists in dozens of different scientific disciplines--is too vast to be budged by the flaws in the works of the three or four scientists being subject to the fiercest attacks.
Exaggerated claims by environmentalists
Climate change contrarians regularly complain about false and misleading claims made by ideologically-driven environmental groups regarding climate change, and the heavy lobbying these groups do to influence public opinion. Such efforts confuse the real science and make climate change seem more dangerous than it really is, the contrarians argue. To some extent, these concerns are valid. In particular, environmentalists are too quick to blame any perceived increase in hurricane activity on climate change, when such a link has yet to be proven. While Al Gore's movie mostly had good science, I thought he botched the treatment of hurricanes as well, and the movie looked too much like a campaign ad. In general, environmental groups present better science than the think tanks do, but you're still better off getting your climate information directly from the scientists doing the research, via the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Another good source is Bob Henson's Rough Guide to Climate Change, aimed at people with high-school level science backgrounds.
Let's look at the amount of money being spent on lobbying efforts by the fossil fuel industry compared to environmental groups to see their relative influence. According to Center for Public Integrity, there are currently 2,663 climate change lobbyists working on Capitol Hill. That's five lobbyists for every member of Congress. Climate lobbyists working for major industries outnumber those working for environmental, health, and alternative energy groups by more than seven to one. For the second quarter of 2009, here is a list compiled by the Center for Public Integrity of all the oil, gas, and coal mining groups that spent more than $100,000 on lobbying (this includes all lobbying, not just climate change lobbying):
Chevron $6,485,000
Exxon Mobil $4,657,000
BP America $4,270,000
ConocoPhillips $3,300,000
American Petroleum Institute $2,120,000
Marathon Oil Corporation $2,110,000
Peabody Investments Corp $1,110,000
Bituminous Coal Operators Association $980,000
Shell Oil Company $950,000
Arch Coal, Inc $940,000
Williams Companies $920,000
Flint Hills Resources $820,000
Occidental Petroleum Corporation $794,000
National Mining Association $770,000
American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity $714,000
Devon Energy $695,000
Sunoco $585,000
Independent Petroleum Association of America $434,000
Murphy Oil USA, Inc $430,000
Peabody Energy $420,000
Rio Tinto Services, Inc $394,000
America's Natural Gas Alliance $300,000
Interstate Natural Gas Association of America $290,000
El Paso Corporation $261,000
Spectra Energy $279,000
National Propane Gas Association $242,000
National Petrochemical & Refiners Association $240,000
Nexen, Inc $230,000
Denbury Resources $200,000
Nisource, Inc $180,000
Petroleum Marketers Association of America $170,000
Valero Energy Corporation $160,000
Bituminous Coal Operators Association $131,000
Natural Gas Supply Association $114,000
Tesoro Companies $119,000
Here are the environmental groups that spent more than $100,000:
Environmental Defense Action Fund $937,500
Nature Conservancy $650,000
Natural Resources Defense Council $277,000
Earthjustice Legal Defense Fund $243,000
National Parks and Conservation Association $175,000
Sierra Club $120,000
Defenders of Wildlife $120,000
Environmental Defense Fund $100,000
If you add it all up, the fossil fuel industry outspent the environmental groups by $36.8 million to $2.6 million in the second quarter, a factor of 14 to 1. To be fair, not all of that lobbying is climate change lobbying, but that affects both sets of numbers. The numbers don't even include lobbying money from other industries lobbying against climate change, such as the auto industry, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, etc.
Corporate profits vs. corporate social responsibility
I'm sure I've left the impression that I disapprove of what the Manufactured Doubt industry is doing. On the contrary, I believe that for the most part, the corporations involved have little choice under the law but to protect their profits by pursuing Manufactured Doubt campaigns, as long as they are legal. The law in all 50 U.S. states has a provision similar to Maine's section 716, "The directors and officers of a corporation shall exercise their powers and discharge their duties with a view to the interest of the corporation and of the shareholders". There is no clause at the end that adds, "...but not at the expense of the environment, human rights, the public safety, the communities in which the corporation operates, or the dignity of employees". The law makes a company's board of directors legally liable for "breach of fiduciary responsibility" if they knowingly manage a company in a way that reduces profits. Shareholders can and have sued companies for being overly socially responsible, and not paying enough attention to the bottom line. We can reward corporations that are managed in a socially responsible way with our business and give them incentives to act thusly, but there are limits to how far Corporate Socially Responsibility (CSR) can go. For example, car manufacturer Henry Ford was successfully sued by stockholders in 1919 for raising the minimum wage of his workers to $5 per day. The courts declared that, while Ford's humanitarian sentiments about his employees were nice, his business existed to make profits for its stockholders.
So, what is needed is a fundamental change to the laws regarding the purpose of a corporation, or new regulations forcing corporations to limit Manufactured Doubt campaigns. Legislation has been introduced in Minnesota to create a new section of law for an alternative kind of corporation, the SR (Socially Responsible) corporation, but it would be a long uphill battle to get such legislation passed in all 50 states. Increased regulation limiting Manufactured Doubt campaigns is possible to do for drugs and hazardous chemicals--Doubt is Their Product has some excellent suggestions on that, with the first principle being, "use the best science available; do not demand certainty where it does not and cannot exist". However, I think such legislation would be difficult to implement for environmental crises such as global warming. In the end, we're stuck with the current system, forced to make critical decisions affecting all of humanity in the face of the Frankenstein monster our corporate system of law has created--the most vigorous and well-funded disinformation campaign against science ever conducted.
Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone, and I'll be back Monday--the last day of hurricane season--with a review of the hurricane season of 2009.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It means that other academics are not able to check basic calculations said to show a long-term rise in temperature over the past 150 years."
Pretty damning no matter how you slice it!
Know what you mean. Perhaps their skit of "How the Stomach Turns" was more prophetic than we realized at the time. The times they are a changin'!
I was talking to my neighbor who is very old. She said she remembered a summer around 120 years ago that was much hotter than it is now. She was around 12 at the time. She also told me not to believe the myth about the "turn of the century" either. She was around for two of them, and nothing turned at all. The date on the calender changed is all!
LOL! I'm just getting a wee-bit "saucy" before the new blog (sooner the better; hope Dr. Jeff posts early).
More than your luggage?!? MY, I LOVE my luggage a lot (and its design is very funny/ironic in light of your yearbook inscription)!
DVF Luggage "Hearts"
P.S. This is NOT the luggage I use on disaster deployments -- can you imagine :( This was a gift to myself for a cruise.
YEA!
Time to walk doggies! Back for "As SOMETHING Turns" later!
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
WP262009 - Typhoon NIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
358 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
...SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE BY MID
WEEK...WHICH MAY INCLUDE SEVERE STORMS...INLAND FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAIN...COASTAL FLOODING...AND GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST AL AND CENTRAL GA WHERE THERE
WILL BE MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND THE CENTRAL GULF AS A SURFACE LOW
QUICKLY DEVELOPS OFF THE TX COAST...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
STRONG 500 MB SHORT WAVE (CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA). THE GFS/ECMWF
CONSENSUS RAPIDLY DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOVING INLAND ACORSS
MS OR AL. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE CAPABILITY OF CAUSING A MULTI-
FACETED HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT FOR OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING SEVERE STORMS...INLAND FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAIN...COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS INCREASING GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS AND WITHIN EACH MODEL
RUN. THERE WILL BE TWO DISTINCT CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ONE
WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FORMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WHERE A SQUALL LINE BARRELS
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS RUN
NOW FORECASTS MORE SURFACE INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ALLOWING THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS TO MOVE WELL INLAND
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ADD TO THIS THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (55-65KT 0-6KM AND 40KT 0-1KM) AND STRONG
LARGE SCALE FORCING...AND AT LEAST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE. EVEN THE FORECAST
700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER THAN USUAL AT ABOUT 6C/KM.
IF THIS SQUALL LINE IS STRONG AND LARGE ENOUGH (AS INDICATED BY
THE GFS)...IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE PILING UP OF WATER INTO
APALACHEE BAY. THIS COULD CAUSE STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ALONG
PORTIONS OF APALACHEE BAY...MAINLY FROM ST MARKS EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF STRONG VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH INLAND.
Impressive nonetheless...
Agree.
Is there a rain date for your end of hurricane season party? (she says...without irony...)
as well as a slower moving low, ie- more rain? I've noticed the wording on the rain is getting stonger w/each passing forecast Diss-cussin'.
SSI- yes on the wind, you and I both, more for you and your further inland areas I would guess.
However, the scary thing about this is, Nida might actually influence El Nino by making it stronger. Take a look at the Nida flash tracker and satellite imagery. Now here's the prognostic reasoning for reference:
WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. NIDA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, TO THE WEST, THAT IS ANCHORED TO THE
ASIAN CONTINENT, AND ANOTHER WESTWARD-BUILDING RIDGE CENTER TO THE
EAST. THE TYPHOON HAS DRIFTED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS WITHIN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT CREATED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CENTERS. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW SEVERAL
THOUSAND MILES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW HAS HELPED THE SYSTEM
MAINTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH DESPITE MINOR STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO THE
EYE (DIAMETER) AND CORE CONVECTION, AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT
120 KNOTS, AND REFLECTS A DATA-T THAT IS ONE T-NUMBER LESS THAN THE
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) OF 6.5.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED; HOWEVER, THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN FLATTENED TO ACCOUNT FOR A WESTWARD-SHIFTING
MODEL CONSENSUS, AND MULTIPLE MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATING A MORE
INITIAL WESTWARD TRACK.
B. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK AND ILL-
DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE TYPHOON WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT AND WEAKEN TOWARDS CHINA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE RIDGE TO THE EAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD WESTWARD AS THE
FIELDS INDICATE. THIS SETUP WILL FACILITATE A FLATTER FORECAST
TRACK, CLOSER TO THE EGRR, GFS, TCLAPS, JGSM, AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS,
WHICH HAVE BEGUN TO CENTER ON A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST TRACK. GFDN,
NOGAPS, AND WBAR REMAIN EASTERN OUTLIERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS 4 FORECASTS. IN GENERAL, AN
ACCELERATED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADUALLY
INCREASES FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
(TPW) PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BY ISOLATED FROM
THE DEEP TROPICS, DUE TO COOLER AND DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEGUN TO
ENCAPSULATE THE SYSTEM.
C. NEAR TAU 72 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DECOUPLE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION
AND RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL VORTICITY WILL CHASE OFF TO THE NORTH(EAST)
INTO THE MID-LATITUDES, AND THE EXPOSED LLCC WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING, GRADIENT-LEVEL, NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEARLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 96. DISSIPATION
MAY OCCUR EARLIER IF SHEAR AFFECTS THE TYPHOON SOONER THAN
ANTICIPATED. THIS WOULD ALSO TURN THE TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD SOONER.
HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION IS CONSISTENT WITH ST10, 11 AND
GFDN, WHICH ALL GENERALLY INDICATE THE SAME WEAKENING TREND.//
NNNN
Nida is also expanding in size. At 0530 UTC, the storm extended from 17N to 24N and from 135E to 142E.
At 1030 UTC, the storm was from 16N to 24N and 134E to 142E.
Here's the current image:
Link.
Nida is still expanding, but it can only do so for so long before it exhausts its own heat supply and dissapates.
On the flash tracking map, there is a pool of up to 32C (90F) warm water near the equator that is being kept to the west by strong equatorial westerlies, and the high pressure system to the east of Nida currently extends far enough east so that this pool is kept in place. However, as Nida weakens, this high pressure area will drift west, and may eventually merge with the high pressure system to the west over China.
The water around Nida's path as a category five and four has cooled due to upwelling. However, the northerly flow to the west of the eastern high is keeping Nida alive, while Nida continues to upwell water and pull it south to the western flank of the typhoon along with the current wind patterns to the east of the high anchored on the Asian continent. This means that the pool of warm water will then be in the central Pacific, drifting east.
The El Nino this year was already predicted to be strong around Jaunary to March, but the effects of Nida will probably speed up this process and make it more intense. Maybe this warming of the water temperatures in the eastern Pacific (which are already quite high) will affect the Gulf temperatures as well, supporting a storm in the GOMEX. There is already a circulation pattern in the Gulf currently.
I've noticed many possible effects of El Nino already this November in S. Ontario at my location, including dandelions (both the flowering and the seed puff variety) and ladybugs (several of my friends reported seeing ladybugs) in mid-November (as well as other insects in the area such as house flies and even mosquitoes outdoors), heavy rain and earthworms a week later, and we've only had one snowfall so far, but we are likely to get snow tomorrow. The weather forecast here is very uncertain, with ALL of the probabilities of precipitation between 30% and 60% in the next five days. To add to that, there have been about seven days with fog in the past month (including today), and just yesterday I saw two flocks of roughly 130 geese flying south in V-formations as a group. This is after I saw some geese flying north two weeks ago. And yesterday someone I know who lives in the same area saw a caterpiller. Today, we were driving south and we saw a group of geese staying put on the ground.
I'm blaming not only El Nino, but global warming as well. The Atlantic hurricane season is almost officially over but that doesn't mean we should forget the only West Pacific typhoon that is currently active.
It looks like there is a surface low in the Bay of Campeche and another near Chetumal (on the border between Mexico and Belize).
FXUS66 KMTR 292159
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
159 PM PST SUN NOV 29 2009
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...MODELS RAPIDLY DIVERGE
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHAT THE MODELS DO WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF TYPHOON NIDA WHICH IS IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC NEAR 19.6N/139.2E. THE 12Z GFS ESSENTIALLY KEEPS IT NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES IT NEAR ITS CURRENT POSITION. THIS FOLLOWS
THE JOINT TYPHOON CENTERS FORECAST. THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS TO TAKE A
PIECE OF TYPHOON NIDA AND EJECTS IT INTO THE WESTERLIES...WHERE THE
ECMWF THEN BOMBS A 929 MB LOW (27.43 INCHES) NEAR 44/170W.
THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT THE 12Z GFS KEEPS AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WITH A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A DEEPENING OF THE HUDSON BAY
LOW. THIS WOULD KEEP THE DISTRICT MAINLY DRY WITH COOL TEMPS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES THAT FAR OUT DOES SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BREAK THE WESTERLIES THROUGH TO THE COAST...
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING WET WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
DUE TO THE BIG DISCREPANCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE KEPT THE POPS
INHERITED AS IS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE AN INTERESTING
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION.
Could be.
From the Mobile,AL. afternoon discussion....
"MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG COASTAL ZONES TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOMING WEST WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM CONTINUES TO
BE VEXING FOR LATE TUESDAY AS GFS AND ECMWF OUTPUTS ARE AT ODDS WITH
EACH OTHER. AS STATED YESTERDAY, THEY MAY BE BOTH RIGHT WITH MAIN
CENTER MAY BE WEST WITH TRIPLE POINT OF A WARM OCCLUSION NEAR MOBILE
BAY. STRONGER ONSHORE WIND IS SHOWN GUSTING TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES ASHORE PER THE EURO IT WOULD
MIX DOWN HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. THAT WOULD INDEED RISK
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT AS SEEN IN THE CALCULATIONS FOR GFS, THE
LOW WOULD BE AT A COASTAL CROSSING BETWEEN DAUPHIN ISLAND AND GULF
SHORES LATE TUESDAY BETWEEN SUNDOWN AND MIDNIGHT. HIGH TIDE IS 1.8 FT
AT 8 PM TUESDAY WITH A RANGE OF 2.3 FEET PER ASTRONOMICAL
PREDICTIONS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING TUESDAY,
BUT WE WILL NOT KNOW MUCH MORE UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS IN THE MODEL
CALCULATIONS ESPECIALLY ON WIND. AT THE POSITION INDICATED FOR
ARRIVAL ASHORE, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STEEP ENOUGH TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING TO CREATE A PROBLEM WITH ONSHORE WIND DRIVING
WATER ASHORE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN MOBILE BAY AND OTHER LARGE
SHALLOW BAYS. GFS CONTINUES FASTER AND EURO CONTINUES SLOWER, TO THE
WEST, STILL IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LATER CALCULATIONS WOULD BE ABLE TO
DEFINE THE RISK MORE CLOSELY."
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
138 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND COASTAL HAZARDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN UP ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE LOW
AN INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THESE BUILDING SEAS WILL GENERATE LARGE
BREAKING WAVES...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ALONG AREA
BEACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TIDES CAUSING
SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASING SEAS WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS...AND
MARINERS...FISHERMEN...AND BOATING ENTHUSIASTS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE
TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
ON WEDNESDAY A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING
THE DAY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES TOWARD WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. CURRENT TIMING OF THIS FRONT WOULD BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NATURE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTH TOWARD THE TAMPA
BAY AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE CURRENT TIME SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH
THROUGH THE NATURE COAST...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES AND MARINE WATERSPOUTS. IN ADDITION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS.
ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
$$
MCMICHAEL/JILLSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
159 PM PST SUN NOV 29 2009
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK…MODELS RAPIDLY DIVERGE
STARTING ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHAT THE MODELS DO WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF TYPHOON NIDA WHICH IS IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC NEAR 19.6N/139.2E. THE 12Z GFS ESSENTIALLY KEEPS IT NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES IT NEAR ITS CURRENT POSITION. THIS FOLLOWS
THE JOINT TYPHOON CENTERS FORECAST. THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS TO TAKE A
PIECE OF TYPHOON NIDA AND EJECTS IT INTO THE WESTERLIES…WHERE THE
ECMWF THEN BOMBS A 929 MB LOW (27.43 INCHES) NEAR 44/170W.
THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT THE 12Z GFS KEEPS AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WITH A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A DEEPENING OF THE HUDSON BAY
LOW. THIS WOULD KEEP THE DISTRICT MAINLY DRY WITH COOL TEMPS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES THAT FAR OUT DOES SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BREAK THE WESTERLIES THROUGH TO THE COAST…
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING WET WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
DUE TO THE BIG DISCREPANCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE KEPT THE POPS
INHERITED AS IS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE AN INTERESTING
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION.
freelance- personally, I expect this to be more of a panhandle, then east then north/northeast event. Of course if the squall line lengthens out over the GOM, all bets are off.
Tampa NWS is usually good, Melbourne is one of the best in the state IMHO.
ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
"GULF OF MEX MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY MODIFYING IN WAKE OF PRIOR
POLAR AIRMASS INTRUSION. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 60KT LLJ WILL HELP
BRING L/M 60S DWPTS NWD TO GULF COASTLINE WED MORNING...POSSIBLY
ADVECTING ACRS FL PENINSULA AND SRN GA WED AFTN JUST AHEAD OF STRONG
COLD FRONT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE DEEP UPWARD MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL LIFT COUPLED WITH DIVERGENT RRQ OF UPR JET.
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE NARROW AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG CAPE
POSSIBLE ALONG COLD FRONT...WITH IMPRESSIVE 400-600 HELICITY VALUES
ACRS WARM SECTOR. CLOSEST SIMILARITY IN RECENT PAST IS EVENT ON MAR
7 2008...WITH SIMILAR HIGH SHEAR/WEAK INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT AND
STRONG UPR SYSTEM ALONG SIMILAR TRACK...RESULT WAS OVER 20 TORNADO
REPORTS ACRS NRN FL/SRN GA ASSOCIATED WITH LEWP SQUALL LINE. OF
COURSE...IF HIGHER DWPTS STAY OFFSHORE...WE MAY END UP WITH A SQUALL
LINE THAT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES WELL INLAND FROM GULF OF MEX. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY...SEE IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DVLP
OR IF INTENSE LIFT CAN PARTIALLY MAKE UP FOR LACK OF BETTER
INSTABILITY."
Not sure... I do know that the snow is a bit late but I think rain is not unusual in early December. We are highly modified by Lake Champlain in the fall such that we get rain early in the season when others get snow. This is probably an unusually warm storm.. even still there will be wet snow flurries before and after the storm... so the weather is indeed starting to turn.
hey guys your forgeting about little oh me
I saw it and said....wow!
what you think IKE
Yes, I saw that already, and that's the exact reason why I posted my previous post. Now has anyone seen my posts? ;)
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-MATAGORDA-
330 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY FROM GULF STORM...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND MOVE OUT OVER
THE GULF ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE
FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS GULF LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS MAY RAISE WATER LEVELS ENOUGH TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ON HOW QUICKLY THIS GULF STORM WILL
DEVELOP...AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
IMPACT THE DEGREE OF WATER LEVEL RISE. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON
LATER STATEMENTS...AND ANY WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES SHOULD
THEY BECOME NECESSARY.
$$
fxus64 klix 292051
afdlix
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
251 PM CST sun Nov 29 2009
Short term...
some slight confusion in placement and timing of different
solutions today. But we will try to clear it all up. The 12z GFS
is about 15kts stronger with wind speeds at 30h rounding the base
of the exiting weak East Coast upper trough. This will dig the
upper trough a little more while moving it out to sea quicker.
This also translates upstream in time. The GFS cold front moves
in slightly faster than the European solution but is almost
negligible at about 1 to 2 hours early. As we move further in time
about when the surface low forms and moves through...we find this
GFS error has multiplied and brings the surface low through here
almost 6 hours too fast. The European solution does a slightly
better job but is not without its problems. Wind speeds around the
upper low in the SW are around 5 to 10 knots too weak setting the
stage for a slightly slower solution. As far as strength of the
system...the models are relatively similar and are doing a good
job with mass field proportionality. Will be leaning a little
closer to the European model (ecmwf) while using the GFS as a quantity guide.
Long story short...cold front gets into btr around 730am Monday...msy
right at noon...and gpt about noon30. The front stalls over the
northern Gulf later in the day. Surface low begins to form on the tail
end of the stalled front Monday night. Feels the tug of the next
strong upper trough digging into the Central Plains and begins
moving east-northeast Tuesday. The low begins to accelerate Tuesday evening Landing
it onshore southeast la around midnight Tuesday into Wednesday. The low moves
inland and starts to occlude causing wrap around clouds and light
precipitation to continue after the front has moved through Wednesday. Skies
begin to clear late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
With concerns to severity. The current scenario would bring a
slight chance to those Gulf coastal parishes including and
adjacent to Plaquemines Parish NE into Jackson County,Miss.. By far...most of
the strongest and heaviest activity will remain offshore and near
the coast.
The next thing to start thinking about is the amount of coastal
flooding that may take place in Hancock County,Miss. late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning. With the GFS too strong and too fast...we have
opted to temper its coastal surge solution. Some local guidance
tools are showing a few roads in the SW coastal sections of the
County getting 4 to 6 inches of water over them and not the 1.5
feet as indicated by the GFS. This will continue to hinge on the
exact path of the surface low but thnigs are beginning to show a trend
toward what the last several days of fcasts have been illuding
to...a low of moderate strength providing 25 to 35 knot winds over
a 300 mile fetch from the southeast with problem number one being
the duration. These winds are not over this fetch for an extended
period and will not be able to provide the amount of water bulk to
cause the degree of inundation being shown by the GFS. But there
will be a good amount of wind speeds to kick up tide levels enough
to cause concern along the immediate lowest lying coastal areas.
Next problem...rainfall amounts. 2 to 4 inches near the coast
tappering to 1 to 2 inches away from the coast to the northwest looks
like a good bet at this point. Again...this is all better than 50
hours away and is quite hard to pin down exactly who will see the
most rainfall so these conservative estimates may be increased or
decreased with time.
Watches warnings and advisories may begin to be posted within the
next 24 hours.
Long term...
next system looks to start affecting the area by next weekend.
&&
Aviation...
VFR conditions will prevail at each of the taf sites during the
remainder of the afternoon and through the evening hours.
Visibilities and ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR
category after 08z or 09z Monday...and possibly lower into the IFR
category at times due low ceilings after sunrise Monday at kbtr and
kmcb. Rain chances will be on the increase after 10z at kbtr and
kmcb and will increase at kmsy and kgpt after 12z. A cold front will
approach and likely push through kbtr and kmcb toward 18z Monday and
then push southeast across kmsy and kgpt during the afternoon hours
Monday. Mainly MVFR ceiling are expected Monday afternoon. Rain
chances will continue through the day Monday at kmsy and kgpt...but
will begin to taper off during the afternoon at kbtr and kmcb. 11
&&
Marine...
a light southerly flow will generally prevail across the coastal
waters through tonight before beginning to veer and increase
somewhat in magnitude during the day Monday as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. This cold front will push into the
coastal waters Monday afternoon and evening. Offshore flow will
increase behind this front Monday night and may approach Small Craft
Advisory criteria by Tuesday morning. Low pressure developing in the
western Gulf of Mexico Monday is forecast to move toward the
northern Gulf Coast Tuesday. The GFS solution with the movement of
this low is considerably faster than that of the European model (ecmwf) and NAM. A
slower European model (ecmwf) solution was preferred for this forecast which brings
the low into the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds
are expected to increase significantly as this feature approaches
and will easily meet Small Craft Advisory criteria Tuesday and may
approach gale force Tuesday night and Wednesday. As the low pulls
off to the northeast by Thursday...strong offshore flow will prevail
which will gradually diminish for the end of the week. 11
See what future model runs show. 27.43 inches is quite impressive....serious system if it comes true.
2009 aint going out quietly seems.
Yup....read yours too.
ok
Not too sure about the GFS though.....
Going to be a NOAA radio Week.
Everyone in the GOM Storms Path should take heed to Local action Statements as well.
Yeah, I also think the GFS is probably moving the system out 6-12 hours too fast in the Tuesday-Wednesday period. But, no question, a very impressive dynamical Low Pressure will rapdly intensify later this week. It will be a very active week following this system.
Also, it appears that the ECMWF is being favored by a couple of the NWS WFO's (particularly Birmingham) with bringing in a decent polar air mass behind this system late this week. They are forecasting mins in the 20s by Friday morning through much of Alabama.
Viewing: 1501 - 1551
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