The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on November 25, 2009

Share this Blog
33
+

In 1954, the tobacco industry realized it had a serious problem. Thirteen scientific studies had been published over the preceding five years linking smoking to lung cancer. With the public growing increasingly alarmed about the health effects of smoking, the tobacco industry had to move quickly to protect profits and stem the tide of increasingly worrisome scientific news. Big Tobacco turned to one the world's five largest public relations firms, Hill and Knowlton, to help out. Hill and Knowlton designed a brilliant Public Relations (PR) campaign to convince the public that smoking is not dangerous. They encouraged the tobacco industry to set up their own research organization, the Council for Tobacco Research (CTR), which would produce science favorable to the industry, emphasize doubt in all the science linking smoking to lung cancer, and question all independent research unfavorable to the tobacco industry. The CTR did a masterful job at this for decades, significantly delaying and reducing regulation of tobacco products. George Washington University epidemiologist David Michaels, who is President Obama's nominee to head the Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA), wrote a meticulously researched 2008 book called, Doubt is Their Product: How Industry's Assault on Science Threatens Your Health. In the book, he wrote: "the industry understood that the public is in no position to distinguish good science from bad. Create doubt, uncertainty, and confusion. Throw mud at the anti-smoking research under the assumption that some of it is bound to stick. And buy time, lots of it, in the bargain". The title of Michaels' book comes from a 1969 memo from a tobacco company executive: "Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy". Hill and Knowlton, on behalf of the tobacco industry, had founded the "Manufactured Doubt" industry.

The Manufactured Doubt industry grows up
As the success of Hill and Knowlton's brilliant Manufactured Doubt campaign became apparent, other industries manufacturing dangerous products hired the firm to design similar PR campaigns. In 1967, Hill and Knowlton helped asbestos industry giant Johns-Manville set up the Asbestos Information Association (AIA). The official-sounding AIA produced "sound science" that questioned the link between asbestos and lung diseases (asbestos currently kills 90,000 people per year, according to the World Health Organization). Manufacturers of lead, vinyl chloride, beryllium, and dioxin products also hired Hill and Knowlton to devise product defense strategies to combat the numerous scientific studies showing that their products were harmful to human health.

By the 1980s, the Manufactured Doubt industry gradually began to be dominated by more specialized "product defense" firms and free enterprise "think tanks". Michaels wrote in Doubt is Their Product about the specialized "product defense" firms: "Having cut their teeth manufacturing uncertainty for Big Tobacco, scientists at ChemRisk, the Weinberg Group, Exponent, Inc., and other consulting firms now battle the regulatory agencies on behalf of the manufacturers of benzene, beryllium, chromium, MTBE, perchlorates, phthalates, and virtually every other toxic chemical in the news today....Public health interests are beside the point. This is science for hire, period, and it is extremely lucrative".

Joining the specialized "product defense" firms were the so-called "think tanks". These front groups received funding from manufacturers of dangerous products and produced "sound science" in support of their funders' products, in the name of free enterprise and free markets. Think tanks such as the George C. Marshall Institute, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Heartland Institute, and Dr. Fred Singer's SEPP (Science and Environmental Policy Project) have all been active for decades in the Manufactured Doubt business, generating misleading science and false controversy to protect the profits of their clients who manufacture dangerous products.

The ozone hole battle
In 1975, the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) industry realized it had a serious problem. The previous year, Sherry Rowland and Mario Molina, chemists at the University of California, Irvine, had published a scientific paper warning that human-generated CFCs could cause serious harm to Earth's protective ozone layer. They warned that the loss of ozone would significantly increase the amount of skin-damaging ultraviolet UV-B light reaching the surface, greatly increasing skin cancer and cataracts. The loss of stratospheric ozone could also significantly cool the stratosphere, potentially causing destructive climate change. Although no stratospheric ozone loss had been observed yet, CFCs should be banned, they said. The CFC industry hired Hill and Knowlton to fight back. As is essential in any Manufactured Doubt campaign, Hill and Knowlton found a respected scientist to lead the effort--noted British scientist Richard Scorer, a former editor of the International Journal of Air Pollution and author of several books on pollution. In 1975, Scorer went on a month-long PR tour, blasting Molina and Rowland, calling them "doomsayers", and remarking, "The only thing that has been accumulated so far is a number of theories." To complement Scorer's efforts, Hill and Knowlton unleashed their standard package of tricks learned from decades of serving the tobacco industry:

- Launch a public relations campaign disputing the evidence.

- Predict dire economic consequences, and ignore the cost benefits.

- Use non-peer reviewed scientific publications or industry-funded scientists who don't publish original peer-reviewed scientific work to support your point of view.

- Trumpet discredited scientific studies and myths supporting your point of view as scientific fact.

- Point to the substantial scientific uncertainty, and the certainty of economic loss if immediate action is taken.

- Use data from a local area to support your views, and ignore the global evidence.

- Disparage scientists, saying they are playing up uncertain predictions of doom in order to get research funding.

- Disparage environmentalists, claiming they are hyping environmental problems in order to further their ideological goals.

- Complain that it is unfair to require regulatory action in the U.S., as it would put the nation at an economic disadvantage compared to the rest of the world.

- Claim that more research is needed before action should be taken.

- Argue that it is less expensive to live with the effects.

The campaign worked, and CFC regulations were delayed many years, as Hill and Knowlton boasted in internal documents. The PR firm also took credit for keeping public opinion against buying CFC aerosols to a minimum, and helping change the editorial positions of many newspapers.

In the end, Hill and Knowlton's PR campaign casting doubt on the science of ozone depletion by CFCs turned out to have no merit. Molina and Rowland were awarded the Nobel Prize in 1995. The citation from the Nobel committee credited them with helping to deliver the Earth from a potential environmental disaster.

The battle over global warming
In 1988, the fossil fuel industry realized it had a serious problem. The summer of 1988 had shattered century-old records for heat and drought in the U.S., and NASA's Dr. James Hansen, one of the foremost climate scientists in the world, testified before Congress that human-caused global warming was partially to blame. A swelling number of scientific studies were warning of the threat posed by human-cause climate change, and that consumption of fossil fuels needed to slow down. Naturally, the fossil fuel industry fought back. They launched a massive PR campaign that continues to this day, led by the same think tanks that worked to discredit the ozone depletion theory. The George C. Marshall Institute, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, Heartland Institute, and Dr. Fred Singer's SEPP (Science and Environmental Policy Project) have all been key players in both fights, and there are numerous other think tanks involved. Many of the same experts who had worked hard to discredit the science of the well-established link between cigarette smoke and cancer, the danger the CFCs posed to the ozone layer, and the dangers to health posed by a whole host of toxic chemicals, were now hard at work to discredit the peer-reviewed science supporting human-caused climate change.

As is the case with any Manufactured Doubt campaign, a respected scientist was needed to lead the battle. One such scientist was Dr. Frederick Seitz, a physicist who in the 1960s chaired the organization many feel to be the most prestigious science organization in the world--the National Academy of Sciences. Seitz took a position as a paid consultant for R.J. Reynolds tobacco company beginning in 1978, so was well-versed in the art of Manufactured Doubt. According to the excellent new book, Climate Cover-up, written by desmogblog.com co-founder James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore, over a 10-year period Seitz was responsible for handing out $45 million in tobacco company money to researchers who overwhelmingly failed to link tobacco to anything the least bit negative. Seitz received over $900,000 in compensation for his efforts. He later became a founder of the George C. Marshall Institute, and used his old National Academy of Sciences affiliation to lend credibility to his attacks on global warming science until his death in 2008 at the age of ninety-six. It was Seitz who launched the "Oregon Petition", which contains the signatures of more than 34,000 scientists saying global warming is probably natural and not a crisis. The petition is a regular feature of the Manufactured Doubt campaign against human-caused global warming. The petition lists the "Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine" as its parent organization. According to Climate Cover-up, the Institute is a farm shed situated a couple of miles outside of Cave Junction, OR (population 17,000). The Institute lists seven faculty members, two of whom are dead, and has no ongoing research and no students. It publishes creationist-friendly homeschooler curriculums books on surviving nuclear war. The petition was sent to scientists and was accompanied by a 12-page review printed in exactly the same style used for the prestigious journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. A letter from Seitz, who is prominently identified as a former National Academy of Sciences president, accompanied the petition and review. Naturally, many recipients took this to be an official National Academy of Sciences communication, and signed the petition as a result. The National Academy issued a statement in April 2008, clarifying that it had not issued the petition, and that its position on global warming was the opposite. The petition contains no contact information for the signers, making it impossible to verify. In its August 2006 issue, Scientific American presented its attempt to verify the petition. They found that the scientists were almost all people with undergraduate degrees, with no record of research and no expertise in climatology. Scientific American contacted a random sample of 26 of the 1,400 signatories claiming to have a Ph.D. in a climate related science. Eleven said they agreed with the petition, six said they would not sign the petition today, three did not remember the petition, one had died, and five did not respond.

I could say much more about the Manufactured Doubt campaign being waged against the science of climate change and global warming, but it would fill an entire book. In fact, it has, and I recommend reading Climate Cover-up to learn more. The main author, James Hoggan, owns a Canadian public relations firm, and is intimately familiar with how public relations campaigns work. Suffice to say, the Manufactured Doubt campaign against global warming--funded by the richest corporations in world history--is probably the most extensive and expensive such effort ever. We don't really know how much money the fossil fuel industry has pumped into its Manufactured Doubt campaign, since they don't have to tell us. The website exxonsecrets.org estimates that ExxonMobil alone spent $20 million between 1998 - 2007 on the effort. An analysis done by Desmogblog's Kevin Grandia done in January 2009 found that skeptical global warming content on the web had doubled over the past year. Someone is paying for all that content.

Lobbyists, not skeptical scientists
The history of the Manufactured Doubt industry provides clear lessons in evaluating the validity of their attacks on the published peer-reviewed climate change science. One should trust that the think tanks and allied "skeptic" bloggers such as Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit and Anthony Watts of Watts Up With That will give information designed to protect the profits of the fossil fuel industry. Yes, there are respected scientists with impressive credentials that these think tanks use to voice their views, but these scientists have given up their objectivity and are now working as lobbyists. I don't like to call them skeptics, because all good scientists should be skeptics. Rather, the think tanks scientists are contrarians, bent on discrediting an accepted body of published scientific research for the benefit of the richest and most powerful corporations in history. Virtually none of the "sound science" they are pushing would ever get published in a serious peer-reviewed scientific journal, and indeed the contrarians are not scientific researchers. They are lobbyists. Many of them seem to believe their tactics are justified, since they are fighting a righteous war against eco-freaks determined to trash the economy.

I will give a small amount of credit to some of their work, however. I have at times picked up some useful information from the contrarians, and have used it to temper my blogs to make them more balanced. For example, I no longer rely just on the National Climatic Data Center for my monthly climate summaries, but instead look at data from NASA and the UK HADCRU source as well. When the Hurricane Season of 2005 brought unfounded claims that global warming was to blame for Hurricane Katrina, and a rather flawed paper by researchers at Georgia Tech showing a large increase in global Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, I found myself agreeing with the contrarians' analysis of the matter, and my blogs at the time reflected this.

The contrarians and the hacked CRU emails
A hacker broke into an email server at the Climate Research Unit of the UK's University of East Anglia last week and posted ten years worth of private email exchanges between leading scientists who've published research linking humans to climate change. Naturally, the contrarians have seized upon this golden opportunity, and are working hard to discredit several of these scientists. You'll hear claims by some contrarians that the emails discovered invalidate the whole theory of human-caused global warming. Well, all I can say is, consider the source. We can trust the contrarians to say whatever is in the best interests of the fossil fuel industry. What I see when I read the various stolen emails and explanations posted at Realclimate.org is scientists acting as scientists--pursuing the truth. I can see no clear evidence that calls into question the scientific validity of the research done by the scientists victimized by the stolen emails. There is no sign of a conspiracy to alter data to fit a pre-conceived ideological view. Rather, I see dedicated scientists attempting to make the truth known in face of what is probably the world's most pervasive and best-funded disinformation campaign against science in history. Even if every bit of mud slung at these scientists were true, the body of scientific work supporting the theory of human-caused climate change--which spans hundreds of thousands of scientific papers written by tens of thousands of scientists in dozens of different scientific disciplines--is too vast to be budged by the flaws in the works of the three or four scientists being subject to the fiercest attacks.

Exaggerated claims by environmentalists
Climate change contrarians regularly complain about false and misleading claims made by ideologically-driven environmental groups regarding climate change, and the heavy lobbying these groups do to influence public opinion. Such efforts confuse the real science and make climate change seem more dangerous than it really is, the contrarians argue. To some extent, these concerns are valid. In particular, environmentalists are too quick to blame any perceived increase in hurricane activity on climate change, when such a link has yet to be proven. While Al Gore's movie mostly had good science, I thought he botched the treatment of hurricanes as well, and the movie looked too much like a campaign ad. In general, environmental groups present better science than the think tanks do, but you're still better off getting your climate information directly from the scientists doing the research, via the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Another good source is Bob Henson's Rough Guide to Climate Change, aimed at people with high-school level science backgrounds.

Let's look at the amount of money being spent on lobbying efforts by the fossil fuel industry compared to environmental groups to see their relative influence. According to Center for Public Integrity, there are currently 2,663 climate change lobbyists working on Capitol Hill. That's five lobbyists for every member of Congress. Climate lobbyists working for major industries outnumber those working for environmental, health, and alternative energy groups by more than seven to one. For the second quarter of 2009, here is a list compiled by the Center for Public Integrity of all the oil, gas, and coal mining groups that spent more than $100,000 on lobbying (this includes all lobbying, not just climate change lobbying):

Chevron $6,485,000
Exxon Mobil $4,657,000
BP America $4,270,000
ConocoPhillips $3,300,000
American Petroleum Institute $2,120,000
Marathon Oil Corporation $2,110,000
Peabody Investments Corp $1,110,000
Bituminous Coal Operators Association $980,000
Shell Oil Company $950,000
Arch Coal, Inc $940,000
Williams Companies $920,000
Flint Hills Resources $820,000
Occidental Petroleum Corporation $794,000
National Mining Association $770,000
American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity $714,000
Devon Energy $695,000
Sunoco $585,000
Independent Petroleum Association of America $434,000
Murphy Oil USA, Inc $430,000
Peabody Energy $420,000
Rio Tinto Services, Inc $394,000
America's Natural Gas Alliance $300,000
Interstate Natural Gas Association of America $290,000
El Paso Corporation $261,000
Spectra Energy $279,000
National Propane Gas Association $242,000
National Petrochemical & Refiners Association $240,000
Nexen, Inc $230,000
Denbury Resources $200,000
Nisource, Inc $180,000
Petroleum Marketers Association of America $170,000
Valero Energy Corporation $160,000
Bituminous Coal Operators Association $131,000
Natural Gas Supply Association $114,000
Tesoro Companies $119,000

Here are the environmental groups that spent more than $100,000:

Environmental Defense Action Fund $937,500
Nature Conservancy $650,000
Natural Resources Defense Council $277,000
Earthjustice Legal Defense Fund $243,000
National Parks and Conservation Association $175,000
Sierra Club $120,000
Defenders of Wildlife $120,000
Environmental Defense Fund $100,000

If you add it all up, the fossil fuel industry outspent the environmental groups by $36.8 million to $2.6 million in the second quarter, a factor of 14 to 1. To be fair, not all of that lobbying is climate change lobbying, but that affects both sets of numbers. The numbers don't even include lobbying money from other industries lobbying against climate change, such as the auto industry, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, etc.

Corporate profits vs. corporate social responsibility
I'm sure I've left the impression that I disapprove of what the Manufactured Doubt industry is doing. On the contrary, I believe that for the most part, the corporations involved have little choice under the law but to protect their profits by pursuing Manufactured Doubt campaigns, as long as they are legal. The law in all 50 U.S. states has a provision similar to Maine's section 716, "The directors and officers of a corporation shall exercise their powers and discharge their duties with a view to the interest of the corporation and of the shareholders". There is no clause at the end that adds, "...but not at the expense of the environment, human rights, the public safety, the communities in which the corporation operates, or the dignity of employees". The law makes a company's board of directors legally liable for "breach of fiduciary responsibility" if they knowingly manage a company in a way that reduces profits. Shareholders can and have sued companies for being overly socially responsible, and not paying enough attention to the bottom line. We can reward corporations that are managed in a socially responsible way with our business and give them incentives to act thusly, but there are limits to how far Corporate Socially Responsibility (CSR) can go. For example, car manufacturer Henry Ford was successfully sued by stockholders in 1919 for raising the minimum wage of his workers to $5 per day. The courts declared that, while Ford's humanitarian sentiments about his employees were nice, his business existed to make profits for its stockholders.

So, what is needed is a fundamental change to the laws regarding the purpose of a corporation, or new regulations forcing corporations to limit Manufactured Doubt campaigns. Legislation has been introduced in Minnesota to create a new section of law for an alternative kind of corporation, the SR (Socially Responsible) corporation, but it would be a long uphill battle to get such legislation passed in all 50 states. Increased regulation limiting Manufactured Doubt campaigns is possible to do for drugs and hazardous chemicals--Doubt is Their Product has some excellent suggestions on that, with the first principle being, "use the best science available; do not demand certainty where it does not and cannot exist". However, I think such legislation would be difficult to implement for environmental crises such as global warming. In the end, we're stuck with the current system, forced to make critical decisions affecting all of humanity in the face of the Frankenstein monster our corporate system of law has created--the most vigorous and well-funded disinformation campaign against science ever conducted.

Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone, and I'll be back Monday--the last day of hurricane season--with a review of the hurricane season of 2009.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1800 - 1750

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

1800. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
where did everyone go


You ran em all off...lol.

I'm getting ready for work.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1799. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
where did everyone go
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1798. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
hey astro looks like our area in southern ont gets its first winter storm poss by thur night into friday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

ROFL. My husband has a selective-hearing device in his cave. (night again, 3rd time's for real.)


That sounds like a denial technique. Shut out the information and you won't hear it. But that doesn't make it not there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1796. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
what happen i kill the blog or what
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1795. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
high impacting weather event for north gulf coast from e tex to fla ne ward

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1794. Patrap
No one doubts the Warming..its occurring..and one can say that the squabbles are about the root cause.

The warming is well documented and accepted.
Cept save for some..er..,who cling to the personal view.

But thats OK,as the Planet could care less what we think.
She can snuff us out like a bad Dream.

Easily.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133477
1792. SQUAWK
Quoting IKE:


Two more Tropical Weather Outlooks...1 pm EST and the last one at 7 pm EST.


Oh Duh me!!! LOL OK, it is the last day and I am gonna post it a little prematurely.

Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
1791. hcubed
Quoting JFLORIDA:
BTW: the CRU and GISS data are in good agreement. So I dont really care.


Both in good agreement - wow.

That sure is proof of GW.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
1789. IKE
Quoting SQUAWK:


2???? I thought today was the last one.


Two more Tropical Weather Outlooks...1 pm EST and the last one at 7 pm EST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning
Today marks the official end of the 2009 atlantic hurricane season. This year was a good one for the eastern caribbean islands and we are very thankful, that we were spared the ravages and loss of life,which we have experienced the last few years. we hope that the coming years will be just like 2009.
At this point i will like to say it was again interesting to be on this blog, even though it was contentious at times. Looking forward to very interesting , productive and educational discussions ,during the 2010 hurricane season.
Wishing everyone HAPPY HOLIDAYS.

SEE YOU ALL NEXT HURRICANE SEASON
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1786. SQUAWK
Quoting IKE:


LOL....

2 more TWO's to go....

17 hours...
32 minutes left...and then I can start the countdown until the 2010 season starts.


2???? I thought today was the last one.
Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
1785. IKE
Quoting SQUAWK:
Well Ike, if you are not gonna, guess I'll hafta.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN


LOL....

2 more TWO's to go....

17 hours...
32 minutes left...and then I can start the countdown until the 2010 season starts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1784. SQUAWK
Well Ike, if you are not gonna, guess I'll hafta.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
1782. Patrap
The UNYSIS GFSx is telling us to GET READY for a significant GOM Fray..then inland around Se. La. and then points Ene



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133477
1781. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133477
1780. Patrap
Coastal Flood Watch

Statement as of 4:50 AM CST on November 30, 2009

... Coastal Flood Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through
late Tuesday night...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Watch... which is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through
late Tuesday night.

A strong low pressure area... with gale force winds up to 40 mph
with higher gusts... is expected to develop in the northwest Gulf
of Mexico tonight and move across the central Gulf Coast region
late Tuesday through early Wednesday morning. Moderate to strong
northeast winds tonight and Tuesday morning will becoming east to
southeast and continue to increase Tuesday afternoon... then remain
strong out of the south and southeast 30 to 40 mph with some
higher gusts in coastal sections through much of Tuesday night.

The combination of wind driven tides and large astronomical tide
ranges are expected to cause a rapid rise in water levels of 3 to
4 feet from low tide in the morning to high tide in the evening
Tuesday. Areas of coastal flooding are likely to develop outside
of hurricane protection levees near the tidal lakes and coast.
Water levels will drop and end the coastal flooding threat late
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as winds shift to westerly.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133477
1779. Patrap
G'morning wu-lander's



447
fxus64 klix 301031
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
431 am CST Monday Nov 30 2009


Short term...
no surprises early this morning. Regional radars clearly depict
location of cold front across northern and western la. The majority
of showers and storms are Post frontal. The boundary will continue
southeastward and should reach northwestern portions of the County Warning Area later this
morning. A few light echos have begun showing up on radar just north
of mcb. Will likely have more light showers develop out ahead of the
boundary before it moves in. The rain will shift south and eastward
during the afternoon with only chnc probability of precipitation along northern zones after
18z. A general coverage of one half inch will be most common across
the area but localized higher amounts are likely. Development of
thunderstorms will be fairly limited due to lack of significant
instability. Little to no cape and Li/S not much lower than 0. The
best shot for storms will be offshore later this afternoon.


High temperature forecast is rather difficult today. Dense cloudcover and
rain associated with the cold front will limit insolation in
northern zones while southern half should have more time to warm
into the lower 70s. Its all about timing and have gone with model
consensus on frontal passage to adjust highs.


The cold front will continue southward into the northern
Gulf...likely past coastal water zone areas. Showers will be
confined mainly to coastal la parishes and coastal waters overnight.
Should see a 10 to 15 degree drop from previous nighttime lows as
cooler air moves in behind the front.


Long term...
a more complex weather scenario to develop early this week. Upper
low currently cut off just south of Arizona will shift eastward towards
the area as an upper trough dips southward just east of The Rockies.

Strong cyclogenesis to occur in the western Gulf Tuesday.

This
surface low will approach the Gulf Coast Tuesday evening. Same story
today in terms of the track of this low. European model (ecmwf) remains in The Middle
Ground with NAM more northerly and GFS to the south. Have kept the
forecast to go along with the Euro. Abundant moisture will surge into
the area with strong onshore flow. Model soundings indicate precipitable waters
reaching 2 inches Tuesday night. This time period is when most of
the action will take place. Models have been steadily indicating a
swath of 3-5 inches along southern zones. The possibility exits that
a Flood Watch will have to eventually be issued for these areas. The
main reason for holding off...at least on this shift...is the fact
that current ffg numbers are still quite high at around 3 inches for
1 hour and 5 inches for 6 hours.


The main upper low will be absorbed by aforementioned northern trough
as it tracks northeastward on Wednesday. This deep trough will dig for in the
region. Models are indicating 1000-500mb thicknesses to drop very
low for this time of year across the area...in the 530dm range.
Current freeze line along and north of I-12 could even be a
conservative one if all stays the same. Otherwise...no rain expected
until possibly next weekend.


Meffer
&&
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133477
Quoting IKE:


LOL....it's nice out now....just took my black poodle out for a morning smell and sniff. Partly cloudy and 56.7 degrees.


Morning smell and sniff, good one!! You forgot the other "s"... stop. Puppies gotta check their p-mail. 59 F with 93% humidity here in Naples. Cool and wet morning for the 3 "s"s.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1774. IKE
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning Senior Chief, Good Morning Ike


Mornin....


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TUESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF THE IMPACT...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE CONCERNS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE TRI-STATE AREA. A
SWATH OF VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD REACH 6 OR MORE
INCHES IN SOME AREAS. AT THIS TIME THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE VERY
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH
SURF...LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS...BEACH EROSION...AND COASTAL
FLOODING.

THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT. HOWEVER...STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 7 FEET
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM WAKULLA COUNTY EASTWARD DURING THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE BOTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 4 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY
WESTWARD. WHILE STORM TIDES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COASTLINE...LARGE AND BATTERING SURF IS POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BEACH EROSION AND WASH OUT VULNERABLE COASTAL ROADWAYS.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INLAND. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG WINDS SHEAR TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS SQUALL LINE SHOULD EXIT EAST OF THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM...RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION DUE TO RUNOFF FROM ANY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY BUT WILL BECOME LIKELY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning Senior Chief, Good Morning Ike
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1772. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
dangit, Ike, you're inland...you're liable to see that freeze happen.

As you float by, I can toss some firewood at ya, too...


LOL.

Quoting StormW:


Brrrrrrr!


I'm usually a few degrees warmer. Probably near 32 for me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1770. aquak9
dangit, Ike, you're inland...you're liable to see that freeze happen.

As you float by, I can toss some firewood at ya, too...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1769. IKE
Quoting StormW:
Mornin' IKE.


Good morning.

Looks like I'll get my first freeze after this impressive low moves out....

Friday Night: Clear, with a low around 28.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1767. IKE
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN
STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS IN COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF WIND DRIVEN TIDES AND LARGE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO
4 FEET FROM LOW TIDE IN THE MORNING TO HIGH TIDE IN THE EVENING
TUESDAY. AREAS OF COASTAL FLOODING ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OUTSIDE
OF HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES NEAR THE TIDAL LAKES AND COAST.
WATER LEVELS WILL DROP AND END THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1766. IKE
From Mobile,AL. discussion....

"TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START OUT
FAIRLY DECENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS KEEPING THE THICKER CLOUDS
OVER THE GULF FOR A BRIEF TIME. AS THE DAY GOES ON...LOW PRESSURE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND HEAD THIS WAY. GFS
AND EURO HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THE EURO
REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AND ITS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE WEST. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME HEAVIER WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO COASTAL ALABAMA AROUND DARK AND MOVING EAST
NORTHEASTS OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE 4 TO 6 INCHES
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS...GENERALLY FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEARER THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
AS THE SHEAR INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET(BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KNOTS) APPROACHING THE COAST. WENT
AHEAD AND MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE IN THE ZONES.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH STARTING AT 6 PM TUESDAY FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT TIDES TO RUN 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF AROUND 1.5 FEET FOR TOTALS OF 3 AND A HALF
TO 4 AND A HALF. THIS WOULD PUT WATER ACROSS THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND...SOME OF THE BEACH ROADS AROUND CODEN AND BAYOU LA
BATRE...IN THE FORT PICKENS AREA AND THE MOBILE BAY CAUSEWAY AND THE
OTHER AREAS PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING IN THIS TYPE OF SITUATION.
MAY
NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY OR WARNING FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY AND THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1764. aquak9
EEEK! StormW at this hour? I'm still in my bathrobe!

(runs off)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1763. aquak9
yeah, Ike...it's nice here, too.

(shrugs)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1761. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
good morning WU-Bloggers.

Ike- wear something flourescent, and wave as you float by-
I'll toss ya a life ring.


LOL....it's nice out now....just took my black poodle out for a morning smell and sniff. Partly cloudy and 56.7 degrees.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1760. IKE
From that Tallahassee discussion...

"AS WITH ALL STORM SYSTEMS...ITS THE DETAILS THAT DETERMINE HOW
EXTENSIVE THE THREAT WILL BE. THE 30/00Z GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST
AND FASTER OF THE THREE MODELS EXAMINED. THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE
GFS SHOWS A LOW TRACK THAT ALLOWS OUR REGION TO GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS AND WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW...INDUCE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEARING 45 KNOTS.
THE 30/00Z EURO HAS TRENDED FROM ITS 29/12Z
RUN AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 29/12Z AND 30/00Z NAM CLOSER TO THE
GFS SOLUTION...IF NOT AS INTENSE. THE EURO STILL PLACES OUR REGION
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR LONG ENOUGH TO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT."
.............

6Z GFS @ 54 hours...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1759. aquak9
good morning WU-Bloggers.

Ike- wear something flourescent, and wave as you float by-
I'll toss ya a life ring.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1758. RTLSNK
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1757. RTLSNK
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1756. RTLSNK
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gonna get intersting here on the west-side this week!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What an outbreak! We could be dealing with a moderate risk for Northern/Central Florida Wednesday. We normally don't get those lol. The ingredients are looking to come together well for damaging winds and tornadoes. A massive squall line indeed!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE LOW MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND EASTERN TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT GENERALLY HAD AREAS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION. SOME WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH DEWPOINTS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN LA...WHILE
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS QUITE COOL AND DRY.

UPPER AIR DATA FROM 00 UTC AND VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS. THE UPPER TROF DRIVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS TROF HAS LEFT BEHIND A LOW...NOW CUT OFF...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NEXT UPPER TROF...NOW MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL SERVE AS THE "KICKER" TO MOVE THE CUT OFF LOW
FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LEAD TO SURFACE LOW
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EVENTUAL STALLING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS CYCLE AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A
VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM HEADING OUR WAY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AS INDICATED IN THE HEADLINE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRESENT A
MULTIFACETED HAZARDOUS WEATHER THAT WILL INCLUDE NOT ONLY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT HEAVY RAIN...COASTAL FLOODING AND MARINE HAZARDS.
FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS BETWEEN 48 AND 60 HOURS AWAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME SUBTLE DETAILS TO WORK OUT...BUT WHAT IS REMARKABLE IS THAT THE
MODELS ARE DOING A REASONABLY GOOD JOB WITH THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS AND
DELIVERING SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

RELATIVELY LITTLE DETAIL HAS BEEN PLACED ON THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST AS THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SYNOPTIC FORCING...SO WILL
GENERALLY STAY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE HERE AND THE
INHERITED NUMBERS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OUR FOCUS WILL SQUARELY SHIFT TO THE DEVELOPING
LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFF THE TEXAS
COAST AS THE CUT OFF LOW MOVES OUT OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OUR WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN.

AS WITH ALL STORM SYSTEMS...ITS THE DETAILS THAT DETERMINE HOW
EXTENSIVE THE THREAT WILL BE. THE 30/00Z GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST
AND FASTER OF THE THREE MODELS EXAMINED. THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE
GFS SHOWS A LOW TRACK THAT ALLOWS OUR REGION TO GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS AND WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
LOW...INDUCE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEARING 45 KNOTS. THE 30/00Z EURO HAS TRENDED FROM ITS 29/12Z
RUN AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 29/12Z AND 30/00Z NAM CLOSER TO THE
GFS SOLUTION...IF NOT AS INTENSE. THE EURO STILL PLACES OUR REGION
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR LONG ENOUGH TO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THE SEVERE THREAT...OF ALL THE IMPACTS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN. WHILE
THE KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE. IN FACT...0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES EASILY EXCEEDS 60 KNOTS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW NEARS. THE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS EQUALLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS. THIS IS IN LARGE PART DUE
TO 950 MB WINDS PROGGED IN THE GFS TO BE NEAR 60 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH 20 TO 25 KT SURFACE WINDS. WHILE THERE IS SOME SUSPICION THAT
THE GFS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE OVERDONE...SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN THE
EURO STILL RESULT IN AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE...WE NEED INSTABILITY. THE INITIAL
CONCERN IS THAT THE INITIAL AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COOL AND
DRY...WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO RETURN FLOW POTENTIAL UNTIL THE LOW IS
ALMOST HERE. THUS...INSTABILITY FORECASTS IN THE MODELS RANGE FROM
NEAR ZERO TO AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. IF THE MORE UNSTABLE
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES IT IS GOING TO BE A VERY LONG DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. IN ANY EVENT...WITH SUCH FAVORABLE KINEMATICS IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH INSTABILITY TO CREATE SEVERE WEATHER. AND EVEN IF THIS
INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED (THIS IS VERY LIKELY DUE TO THE DYNAMICAL
COOLING INDICATED IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS)...THE FACT THAT WINDS ARE
SO STRONG...JUST 1000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE...THAT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT COULD DEVELOP EVEN IF THESE WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT REDUCED BY
MIXING THROUGH A NEAR STABLE LAYER AT THE SURFACE AS A SQUALL LINE
MOVES THROUGH.

THE TIMING OF THIS THREAT APPEARS LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS WEST OF
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PIVOTS
NORTHWARD YIELDING A DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR THREAT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE NEARING OUR WESTERN AREAS AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE CLOSENESS OF THE GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS TO SHOW 80 TO
90 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

NOW...FOR THE OTHER THREATS...

HEAVY RAINFALL...THE MODELS SHOW PWATS GOING TO NEAR 2 INCHES AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH SUCH STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 3 TO 6 INCH
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS DUE TO CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS NEARING 8 INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
ALBANY TO APALACHICOLA. EAST OF THIS AREA...WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES
AMOUNTS WITH TOTALS UP TO 5 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD
EASILY LEAD TO URBANIZED...AND EVENTUALLY RIVER FLOODING.

COASTAL FLOODING...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. EASTERLY WINDS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FOCUS HIGHER WATER LEVELS INTO FRANKLIN COUNTY
AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF APALACHEE BAY. AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WATER
WILL BEGIN TO PILE UP INTO THE BAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL
LINE...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURGE HEIGHTS PEAKING BETWEEN 3 AND 4
FEET...CENTERED ON AN AREA OF SAINT MARKS DOWN TO CEDAR KEY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STORM TIDES NEARING 7 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER. THIS IS SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN MAGNITUDE TO LEVELS
SEEN DURING HURRICANE GUSTAV BACK IN 2007. GIVEN THAT THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CHARTS FOR APALACHEE BAY SHOW VERY LITTLE TIDAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW TIDES ON WEDNESDAY...THE CONCERN
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INUNDATION ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS FROM
FRANKLIN COUNTY EASTWARD TO DIXIE COUNTY IS QUITE HIGH. THUS...EVEN
THOUGH IT IS 48 TO 60 HOURS AWAY...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SIGNIFICANT FLOOD POTENTIAL LATER THIS
MORNING.

IN SUMMARY...A MULTIFACETED HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND COASTAL FLOODING LOOK TO BE THE MOST
CERTAIN IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
INCREASED...THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. EVERYONE
IS URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS STORM SYSTEM.


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY).
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME INTERESTING WEATHER DURING
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH I DREW THE
LONG END OF THE STICK SO SPEAK...AS THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS IN THE
SHORT TERM (MAINLY TUE NIGHT AND WED) SHOULD FAR OUTWEIGH MOST OF
THE CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE TO CARRY POPS IN THE FCST FOR WED
NIGHT AND WINDS MAY STILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS...THE
SEVERE WX AND COASTAL FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY A
DAYTIME EVENT WHICH POSSIBLY COULD EXTEND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THEREAFTER...ANTICIPATE A GENERALLY POP FREE FCST UNTIL SUN NIGHT OR
MON AT THE EARLIEST...AND ONLY IF THE 00 UTC SOLUTION OF THE GFS IS
CORRECT AND THE EARLIER 12 UTC EURO IS INCORRECT. HOWEVER
...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL VERY EARLY IN THE BALL GAME...THERE IS A NEW
POTENTIAL PROBLEM THAT WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH...AND THAT WILL BE
THE CONCERN FOR SOME VERY LOW TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING (WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR IDEAL...DESPITE RISING 850 MB TEMPS).
I`M NOT SURE IF THIS HAS EVER HAPPENED BEFORE OVER PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR CWA...BUT SOME OF THE RAW MEX GRIDS WOULD ACTUALLY SKIP
RIGHT OVER A FREEZE...DIRECTLY TO A HARD FREEZE ON SATURDAY MORNING!
AM OBVIOUSLY NOT READY TO GO THIS FAR OUT ON A LIMB AT THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT A POSSIBLE LONG DURATION RADIATIONAL FREEZE IS APPEARING
MORE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR
...WITH AN ADVECTION FREEZE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF SE
AL AND THE NW CORNER OF SW GA. AFTER LOADING THE RAW GFS 40 MODEL
OUTPUT (WHICH LOOKS FAIRLY DECENT) WILL LIKELY USE A BLEND OF THIS
WITH THE MEX AND GRIDDED MOS AS A STARTING POINT. ALL INTERESTS ARE
URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FCSTS FROM THE NATIONAL WX
SERVICE...AS A CHANGE IN LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN EITHER DIRECTION
COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUTDOOR PLANTS AND EVENT
PLANNING.

&&

.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH NOT AS VOLATILE AS IT EXPECTED TO BE FOR OUR
TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THE NEXT 24 HRS COULD BE
A BIT INTERESTING WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AS MOSTLY MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS (WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 3-4KFT
CIGS) PRECEDE THE APPROACH OF WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. BEFORE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDINESS ARRIVES...TLH AND VLD MAY
DROP TO MVFR LEVELS IF ALLOWED TO RADIATE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS
TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVE THEREAFTER. ON MONDAY...
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO BE TO THE WEST IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY LOSES ITS PUNCH AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL LOCATIONS BY 06 UTC ON TUE.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1800 - 1750

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Dunham Lake Sunset
Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto