QuikSCAT, 1999 - 2009: R.I.P.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on November 24, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

The QuikSCAT satellite is no more. The sad new of QuikSCAT's demise came yesterday in a terse message from NASA:

Several hours ago, shortly past 7:00Z today (23Nov), telemetry received from QuikSCAT indicates that the antenna rotation rate has dropped to zero and remains at zero. The motor remains powered. The system can be operated safely in this state for an indefinite period. The QuikSCAT operations team will be meeting later this morning, but in all likelihood this is the end of the nominal mission".

Launched in 1999, the QuikSCAT satellite became one of the most useful and controversial meteorological satellites ever to orbit the Earth. Forecasters world-wide came to rely on QuikSCAT wind data to issue timely warnings and make accurate forecasts of tropical and extratropical storms, wave heights, sea ice, aviation weather, iceberg movement, coral bleaching events, and El Niño. Originally expected to last just 2-3 years, QuikSCAT made it past ten, a testament to the skill of the engineers that designed the satellite. To show you what a dweeb I am, I'll admit to tearing up a bit when heard yesterday that the venerable old bird had finally bitten the dust. It was like losing a valued friend.


Figure 1. NASA's QuikSCAT satellite, launched in 1999. Image credit: NASA.

Alternatives to QuikSCAT
Two valuable alternatives to QuikSCAT are available, but neither can come close to making up for the loss of QuikSCAT. The Windsat instrument aboard the Coriolis satellite (launched in 2003) measures wind speed and wind direction using a different technique. Evaluation of these data at NHC and NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) shown the winds to be unreliable in and around the storm environment. There's also the European ASCAT satellite, launched in 2007. Like QuikSCAT, ASCAT can measure global wind speed and direction twice per day. However, the data is available at 25 km resolution (two times coarser than the 12.5 km QuikSCAT), and ASCAT covers only 60% of the area covered by QuikSCAT in the same time period. QuikSCAT sees a swath of ocean 1800 km wide, while ASCAT sees two parallel swaths 550 km wide, separated by a 720 km gap. I find it frustrating to use ASCAT to monitor tropical storms, since the passes miss the center of circulation of a storm of interest more than half the time. On the plus side, ASCAT has the advantage that the data is not adversely affected by rain, unlike QuikSCAT.

The need for a new QuikSCAT
NOAA has been pushing for a QuikSCAT replacement for years. Former National Hurricane Center director Bill Proenza laudably made a big push in 2007 for a new QuikSCAT satellite. Unfortunately, he made claims about the usefulness of QuikSCAT for improving hurricane track forecasts that were not supported by scientific research, an error that may have ultimately led to his downfall. While there is evidence that QuikSCAT data may improve hurricane track forecasts of some computer models, NHC uses many models to make hurricane track forecasts, and some of these models are not helped by QuikSCAT data. For example, a 2009 model study by Dr. Jim Goerss of the Naval Research Lab found that QuikSCAT winds made no improvement to hurricane track forecasts of the NOGAPS model, one of the key models used by NHC to predict hurricane tracks. QuikSCAT is extremely valuable for many other aspects of hurricane forecasting, though. It provides early detection of surface circulations in developing tropical depressions, and for defining gale (34 kts) and storm-force (50 kts) wind radii. The information on wind radii from QuikSCAT is especially important for tropical storms and hurricanes outside the range of aircraft reconnaissance flights conducted in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, and for the regions where there are no reconnaissance flights (Central Pacific, Western Pacific, and Indian Ocean). Accurate wind radii are critical to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), and Guam Weather Forecast Office (WFO) watch and warning process, since they affect the size of tropical storm and hurricane watch and warning areas. Between 2003 and 2006, QuikSCAT data were used at NHC 17% of the time to determine the wind radii, 21% of the time for center fixing, and 62% of the time for storm intensity estimates.

A QuikSCAT replacement
A replacement dual-frequency QuikSCAT satellite that has superior capabilities to old one is being explored by NOAA and NASA, in partnership with the Japanese Space Agency (JAXA). The new QuikSCAT instrument would fly on the Japanese GCOM-Water Cycle satellite, scheduled to launch in January 2016. However, funding must begin in 2010 in order to meet this launch deadline, and no funding for a new QuikSCAT has been put into the Administration's FY 2011 budget. The proposed QuikSCAT replacement would be able to measure winds as high as 100 mph (Category 2 hurricane strength), and have improved ability to measure winds in heavy rain. The new satellite would have a 20% improvement in spatial resolution. The cost would be less than usual, since the rocket and and satellite are already paid for. However, there are additional costs involved in adapting QuikSCAT to the Japanese engineering requirements. The final costs of such a replacement QuikSCAT have not been determined yet, but would probably be several hundred million dollars. According to the Palm Beach Post, in September, U.S. Representative Ron Kline, D-FL, introduced a bill in Congress to fund a new QuikSCAT satellite. Klein introduced a similar bill in 2007, which failed. "Today's news of its failure simply strengthens our commitment to ensure that a next-generation satellite is constructed and launched as quickly as possible", Klein said in a statement made yesterday.

Thanks to all of you who've written your Senators and Representatives. Let's hope that the final failure of QuikSCAT yesterday will finally motivate Congress to fund a replacement satellite.

Rest in Peace, QuikSCAT.

References
2007 NOAA QuikSCAT user impact study:


Figure 2. Surface weather map for the time when the UK's record 24-hour rainfall event occurred, Nov. 19, 2009. A cold front trailing from a powerful low pressure system with a central pressure of 955 mb stalled over the western UK and dumped prodigious amounts of rain. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Heavy rains on tap for hard-hit flooded regions of the UK
Heavy rains of up to four inches are expected today over regions of the UK still recovering from last week's deadly floods. An extremely moist Atlantic frontal system stalled over across Northern Ireland, Cumbria and south-west Scotland last Thursday and Friday, dumping prodigious amounts of rain that triggered severe flooding in Cumbria. Loops of precipitable water reveal that part of this moisture may have come from the Hurricane Ida-enhanced Nor'easter that brought record storm surges to the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The 24-hour total at Seathwaite (ending 0045 on Friday 20 November) of 314.4 mm (12.37 inches) is a UK record for a single location in any given 24-hour period, according to the UK Met Office. Records go back to 1914. According to wunderground member "Former Aussie", who has been working at the scene of the disaster, "the centre of the small town of Cockermouth was up to the tops of shop windows in water. Downstream, at Workington, bridges were washed away. Police constable Bill Barker was standing on one, stopping traffic as it fell, and he drowned, but the prompt and in cases heroic action of the emergency services meant no other lives were lost, as far as we know. Cockermouth was the birthplace of the poet William Wordsworth. The house where he was born is still standing, but the contents are said to be seriously damaged. Cumbriafoundation.org is where anyone wanting to help some extremely distressed and hard hit people can go. Some thousands of people will be out of their homes for months, and as it's less that 14 months since some of them were flooded out the last time, some will be suffering uninsurable losses.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

P.S. wunderblogger Patrap attended yesterday's Cuban-American Hurricane Conference in New Orleans, and has posted a nice blog on the affair.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 297 - 247

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

297. TampaSpin
3:13 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
That cold front with the lOw is really coming hard on LOOP!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
296. atmoaggie
3:11 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
new blog

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
295. GeoffreyWPB
3:07 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Hi Grothar....it's been a while since we recieved so much rain in a short period of time. Looks like an all day event.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10999
294. GeoffreyWPB
3:05 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Nida
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10999
293. Grothar
3:02 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What a wild morning down here in West Palm / Lake Worth:



We've finally got some rain! I forgot that grass was supposed to be green!.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
292. HurricaneNewbie
3:00 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Quiet day on here. Beautiful weather in Atlanta. Looks like central FL is getting some much needed rain.
Member Since: September 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
291. Tazmanian
2:56 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
yes it sure is this think if that storm was in the gulf of MX right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114758
290. Tazmanian
2:55 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Early on November 21 the JTWC reported that an area of convection had persisted within a monsoon trough about 880 km, (545 mi) to the southeast of Guam.[207][208] At this time the system was moving around the subtropical ridge of pressure, with an anticyclone over the cyclone helping the convection to consolidate over a broad and elongated low level circulation center which was located in an area of minimal vertical wind shear.[207][208] Later that morning a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert was released as deep convection increased in orgainzation with multiple bands of convection starting to wrap into the developing low level circulation center. The system was then declared as a tropical depression by the JMA later that day before the JTWC followed suit early the next day, who assigned the designation of 26W to the depression.[209][210] On 23 November JTWC upgraded the system to a tropical storm[211], and JMA followed suit allocating the name Nida[212]. Later of the next day, JTWC reported that Nida rapidly intensifies into a category 1 typhoon equivalent. Next day JMA upgraded Nida to a Severe Tropical Storm[213] Intensification is anticipated until in the afternoon of November 25, JTWC reported that Nida intensifies from category 2 typhoon to a category 4 super typhoon. While JMA also upgraded it to a typhoon. On the same time an eye wall structure had been formed. During the evening of November 25, Nida futher intensified into an extremely intense Category 5 equivalent super typhoon according to the JTWC, attaining winds of 275 km/h (170 mph), the first storm of this intensity in the basin since Typhoon Chaba in 2004. Additionally, the JMA reported that the barometric pressure had decreased to 905 mbar, ranking Nida as the strongest storm to form during 2009 worldwide, eclipsing Hurricane Rick.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114758
289. usa777
2:53 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Nida is incredible...That is one awesome looking storm!!!
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
288. jeffs713
2:53 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Man...what a view. Glad that's not in the GOM.

Amen to that. Nida is a beast of a storm. I hope she stays away from land, and all vessels at sea stay well out of the way.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5875
287. GeoffreyWPB
2:42 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
What a wild morning down here in West Palm / Lake Worth:

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10999
286. Tazmanian
2:40 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Raw T # all most 8.0???



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 133200 UTC
Lat : 12:54:28 N Lon : 141:54:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.7 / 874.0mb/161.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.5 7.5 7.9
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114758
285. AussieStorm
2:38 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Nida is going to pass over a hot spot in about 12hrs and i guess she will intensify.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
284. adb42
2:36 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Nida has intensified to a 150 kt supertyphoon, and will intensify even further. The Northern Marianas caught a whiff of Nida as a 65 kt typhoon 24 hours ago, and can consider themselves extremely lucky that the burst of intensification (85 knots in 24 hours) did not occur a day earlier.
Member Since: December 6, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 43
283. IKE
2:30 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
55 degrees here in the Florida panhandle with the sun fixing to break through as the clouds move east...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
282. AussieStorm
2:29 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Man...what a view. Glad that's not in the GOM.

I so hope it becomes a fish very soon

Forecast
Hour Intensity
0- 125
12- 140
24- 145
36- 135
48- 125
72- 110
96- 95
120- 85
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
281. NEwxguy
2:28 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Happy Thanksgiving to all the WU bloggers.
What a storm in the Wpac.Hope that stays away from land.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15621
280. severstorm
2:27 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Morning Ike, You are so right. That in the gulf would be insane.
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
279. IKE
2:24 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Man...what a view. Glad that's not in the GOM.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
278. AussieStorm
2:23 PM GMT on November 25, 2009








Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
277. Orcasystems
2:09 PM GMT on November 25, 2009



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
276. Skyepony (Mod)
2:07 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Guam has really been a site of near misses this year. It's the closesed surface obs to Nida recently..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37408
275. Magicchaos
1:41 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Quoting all4hurricanes:

NO Way, Nida looks good but 874mb?!? that almost breaks Tips record.


You have to remember, those are satellite estimates. This is a situation where aircraft data would really help.
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
274. TheCaneWhisperer
1:41 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Nasty line moving N up through the peninsula. HEAVY rain, much needed rain.


273. Magicchaos
1:39 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Super Typhoon Nida
(4AM EST)13.1N 141.9E
Winds:175MPH
Movement:NW at 15MPH
Avg. Radius of TS-Winds:115 Miles
Small Tropical Cyclone
Pressure:925MB

Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
272. Skyepony (Mod)
1:38 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
NIDA on MIMIC interesting how it moved back on itself as it rapidly intensified.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37408
270. severstorm
12:55 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Good Morning to all, Yes will be a tough day to get around but like you said we will take all we can get. I hear the grass cheering now HAPPY TURKEYDAY TO ALL
Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 956
269. miajrz
12:47 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SUNRISE...PLANTATION...PEMBROKE
PINES...MIRAMAR...HOLLYWOOD...FORT LAUDERDALE...DAVIE...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 930 AM EST

* AT 731 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON POORLY DRAINED ROADS AND UNDERPASSES. IN ADDITION, OILY
STREETS FROM DRY WEATHER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS WILL CREATE
EXTREMELY SLICK ROADS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE HEAVY RAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY
INCLUDING MIRAMAR, PEMBROKE PINES, COOPER CITY, DAVIE, PLANTATION,
SUNRISE AND WESTON.

Just an hour earlier, we had:

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MIAMI DADE
COUNTY...EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. RAINFALL AROUND AND EAST OF HOMESTEAD
HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AT BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE PERSISTENTLY MOVED
OVER THE AREA. SOME STANDING WATER MAY BE ENCOUNTERED BY MOTORISTS
THIS MORNING AND CAUTION IS ADVISED BETWEEN HOMESTEAD AND NARANJA
ON U S 1 AND THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AND AROUND THE HOMESTEAD MIAMI
SPEEDWAY.

While it's gonna be a tough commute up US 1, I'll take the rain any day!
Member Since: June 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
268. ForecasterColby
12:44 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Nida is absolutely spectacular, perfect eye with -90C cloud tops all the way around. The banding on microwave is absolutely insane, Nida's feeder bands are more intense than the eyewalls of your average hurricane.
267. IKE
12:35 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Morn Ike.


Slow round here lately.
Sure glad we didnt get anything like Nida in the gom this season. Do ya think this is a year for snow down here?


I wouldn't bet on it happening.

It is possible though.

As Ringo sings...It Don't Come Easy.

Gobble, gobble to everyone.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
266. PensacolaDoug
12:26 PM GMT on November 25, 2009
Morn Ike.


Slow round here lately.
Sure glad we didnt get anything like Nida in the gom this season. Do ya think this is a year for snow down here?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
265. IKE
11:57 AM GMT on November 25, 2009
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
263. IKE
11:46 AM GMT on November 25, 2009
You can see the cold front in the northern plains. It's racing to the south and east...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
262. IKE
11:43 AM GMT on November 25, 2009
From Tallahassee,FL...

A COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED FROST AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE
OUTDOOR VEGETATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK IN CASE THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OR SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BECOMES MORE LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING.

A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE DETAILS...THE SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM IN CASE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BECOMES MORE LIKELY.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
261. IKE
11:40 AM GMT on November 25, 2009
T-minus 138 hours and 20 minutes left...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
257. IKE
11:12 AM GMT on November 25, 2009
6Z GFS at 138 hours...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
255. TheCaneWhisperer
10:54 AM GMT on November 25, 2009
1011 Low Coming off the N coast of the Yucatan.


254. all4hurricanes
10:54 AM GMT on November 25, 2009
Quoting Bobbyweather:
OMG!!!
The ADT Dvorak number for Nida is T7.7 corresponding to 161 kts and 874 mb pressure!!! Nida is the strongest of this year IMO.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 080100 UTC
Lat : 12:07:09 N Lon : 142:38:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.7 / 874.3mb/161.0kt

Nida is on the front page of Navy site.

NO Way, Nida looks good but 874mb?!? that almost breaks Tips record.
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2351
253. IKE
10:11 AM GMT on November 25, 2009
New Orleans discussion...

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY OR MON. THIS ONE LOOKS
TO HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF THERMAL AND JET LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THE MODEL USED HERE IS THE GFS. THE ETA IS A LITTLE WEAK
WITH THE 00Z SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS AND THE ECMWF IS WAY TOO STRONG. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING 20KT STRONGER WINDS THAT WHAT THE NASHVILLE UA
SOUNDING SHOWS AT 300MB. THAT IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT GREATER AT
THAT LEVEL. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE TROUGH PULLING OUT QUICKER
SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE CURRENT UPPER
TROUGH OUT ROUGHLY 6 HRS LATER. THIS SAME SOLUTION BRINGS A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. ATTM
WE CAN ONLY SAY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. STRONG
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY BUT NUMBERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. LOCAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT ARE
CONCENTRATED AND MESHED OVER JUST THIS AREA OF THE GULF COAST ARE
SHOWING LOW END TS STRENGTH NUMBERS. IN DIRECT CONTRAST...THE
LOCALIZED SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY COLD AIR AND SOME MIX OF
PRECIP BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY TUE...AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN-MOST
PORTION OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION IS KNOWN
ON THIS SYSTEM TO CONFIRM ITS SEVERE OR WINTER WX POTENTIAL AND
THESE VARIABLES WILL BE IRONED OUT AS MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
EVALUTATED.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
252. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:54 AM GMT on November 25, 2009
2009NOV25 080100 6.8 908.1/ +3.7 /134.8 6.5 7.1 7.9

There's an 8.0 reading for the raw data
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44809
251. Bobbyweather
8:50 AM GMT on November 25, 2009
OMG!!!
The ADT Dvorak number for Nida is T7.7 corresponding to 161 kts and 874 mb pressure!!! Nida is the strongest of this year IMO.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 080100 UTC
Lat : 12:07:09 N Lon : 142:38:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.7 / 874.3mb/161.0kt

Nida is on the front page of Navy site.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
250. Skyepony (Mod)
7:58 AM GMT on November 25, 2009
All cloudsat got today was the edge of BONGANI
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37408
249. Skyepony (Mod)
7:53 AM GMT on November 25, 2009
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37408
248. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:18 AM GMT on November 25, 2009
Marianas region seems to be the bad area for T7.0 systems this year.

This may become the fourth "Super" Typhoon categorize by the JMA
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44809
247. BahaHurican
7:08 AM GMT on November 25, 2009
This sounds like this Nida has the potential to be the worst of the season, if it continues the rapid intensification trend we have been seeing....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21529

Viewing: 297 - 247

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
45 °F
Overcast