QuikSCAT, 1999 - 2009: R.I.P.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on November 24, 2009

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The QuikSCAT satellite is no more. The sad new of QuikSCAT's demise came yesterday in a terse message from NASA:

Several hours ago, shortly past 7:00Z today (23Nov), telemetry received from QuikSCAT indicates that the antenna rotation rate has dropped to zero and remains at zero. The motor remains powered. The system can be operated safely in this state for an indefinite period. The QuikSCAT operations team will be meeting later this morning, but in all likelihood this is the end of the nominal mission".

Launched in 1999, the QuikSCAT satellite became one of the most useful and controversial meteorological satellites ever to orbit the Earth. Forecasters world-wide came to rely on QuikSCAT wind data to issue timely warnings and make accurate forecasts of tropical and extratropical storms, wave heights, sea ice, aviation weather, iceberg movement, coral bleaching events, and El NiƱo. Originally expected to last just 2-3 years, QuikSCAT made it past ten, a testament to the skill of the engineers that designed the satellite. To show you what a dweeb I am, I'll admit to tearing up a bit when heard yesterday that the venerable old bird had finally bitten the dust. It was like losing a valued friend.


Figure 1. NASA's QuikSCAT satellite, launched in 1999. Image credit: NASA.

Alternatives to QuikSCAT
Two valuable alternatives to QuikSCAT are available, but neither can come close to making up for the loss of QuikSCAT. The Windsat instrument aboard the Coriolis satellite (launched in 2003) measures wind speed and wind direction using a different technique. Evaluation of these data at NHC and NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) shown the winds to be unreliable in and around the storm environment. There's also the European ASCAT satellite, launched in 2007. Like QuikSCAT, ASCAT can measure global wind speed and direction twice per day. However, the data is available at 25 km resolution (two times coarser than the 12.5 km QuikSCAT), and ASCAT covers only 60% of the area covered by QuikSCAT in the same time period. QuikSCAT sees a swath of ocean 1800 km wide, while ASCAT sees two parallel swaths 550 km wide, separated by a 720 km gap. I find it frustrating to use ASCAT to monitor tropical storms, since the passes miss the center of circulation of a storm of interest more than half the time. On the plus side, ASCAT has the advantage that the data is not adversely affected by rain, unlike QuikSCAT.

The need for a new QuikSCAT
NOAA has been pushing for a QuikSCAT replacement for years. Former National Hurricane Center director Bill Proenza laudably made a big push in 2007 for a new QuikSCAT satellite. Unfortunately, he made claims about the usefulness of QuikSCAT for improving hurricane track forecasts that were not supported by scientific research, an error that may have ultimately led to his downfall. While there is evidence that QuikSCAT data may improve hurricane track forecasts of some computer models, NHC uses many models to make hurricane track forecasts, and some of these models are not helped by QuikSCAT data. For example, a 2009 model study by Dr. Jim Goerss of the Naval Research Lab found that QuikSCAT winds made no improvement to hurricane track forecasts of the NOGAPS model, one of the key models used by NHC to predict hurricane tracks. QuikSCAT is extremely valuable for many other aspects of hurricane forecasting, though. It provides early detection of surface circulations in developing tropical depressions, and for defining gale (34 kts) and storm-force (50 kts) wind radii. The information on wind radii from QuikSCAT is especially important for tropical storms and hurricanes outside the range of aircraft reconnaissance flights conducted in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, and for the regions where there are no reconnaissance flights (Central Pacific, Western Pacific, and Indian Ocean). Accurate wind radii are critical to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), and Guam Weather Forecast Office (WFO) watch and warning process, since they affect the size of tropical storm and hurricane watch and warning areas. Between 2003 and 2006, QuikSCAT data were used at NHC 17% of the time to determine the wind radii, 21% of the time for center fixing, and 62% of the time for storm intensity estimates.

A QuikSCAT replacement
A replacement dual-frequency QuikSCAT satellite that has superior capabilities to old one is being explored by NOAA and NASA, in partnership with the Japanese Space Agency (JAXA). The new QuikSCAT instrument would fly on the Japanese GCOM-Water Cycle satellite, scheduled to launch in January 2016. However, funding must begin in 2010 in order to meet this launch deadline, and no funding for a new QuikSCAT has been put into the Administration's FY 2011 budget. The proposed QuikSCAT replacement would be able to measure winds as high as 100 mph (Category 2 hurricane strength), and have improved ability to measure winds in heavy rain. The new satellite would have a 20% improvement in spatial resolution. The cost would be less than usual, since the rocket and and satellite are already paid for. However, there are additional costs involved in adapting QuikSCAT to the Japanese engineering requirements. The final costs of such a replacement QuikSCAT have not been determined yet, but would probably be several hundred million dollars. According to the Palm Beach Post, in September, U.S. Representative Ron Kline, D-FL, introduced a bill in Congress to fund a new QuikSCAT satellite. Klein introduced a similar bill in 2007, which failed. "Today's news of its failure simply strengthens our commitment to ensure that a next-generation satellite is constructed and launched as quickly as possible", Klein said in a statement made yesterday.

Thanks to all of you who've written your Senators and Representatives. Let's hope that the final failure of QuikSCAT yesterday will finally motivate Congress to fund a replacement satellite.

Rest in Peace, QuikSCAT.

References
2007 NOAA QuikSCAT user impact study:


Figure 2. Surface weather map for the time when the UK's record 24-hour rainfall event occurred, Nov. 19, 2009. A cold front trailing from a powerful low pressure system with a central pressure of 955 mb stalled over the western UK and dumped prodigious amounts of rain. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Heavy rains on tap for hard-hit flooded regions of the UK
Heavy rains of up to four inches are expected today over regions of the UK still recovering from last week's deadly floods. An extremely moist Atlantic frontal system stalled over across Northern Ireland, Cumbria and south-west Scotland last Thursday and Friday, dumping prodigious amounts of rain that triggered severe flooding in Cumbria. Loops of precipitable water reveal that part of this moisture may have come from the Hurricane Ida-enhanced Nor'easter that brought record storm surges to the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The 24-hour total at Seathwaite (ending 0045 on Friday 20 November) of 314.4 mm (12.37 inches) is a UK record for a single location in any given 24-hour period, according to the UK Met Office. Records go back to 1914. According to wunderground member "Former Aussie", who has been working at the scene of the disaster, "the centre of the small town of Cockermouth was up to the tops of shop windows in water. Downstream, at Workington, bridges were washed away. Police constable Bill Barker was standing on one, stopping traffic as it fell, and he drowned, but the prompt and in cases heroic action of the emergency services meant no other lives were lost, as far as we know. Cockermouth was the birthplace of the poet William Wordsworth. The house where he was born is still standing, but the contents are said to be seriously damaged. Cumbriafoundation.org is where anyone wanting to help some extremely distressed and hard hit people can go. Some thousands of people will be out of their homes for months, and as it's less that 14 months since some of them were flooded out the last time, some will be suffering uninsurable losses.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

P.S. wunderblogger Patrap attended yesterday's Cuban-American Hurricane Conference in New Orleans, and has posted a nice blog on the affair.

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197. xcool


cold air comeing soon


at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namscsfcbw.gif
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
What's funny is the MSN weather site has our high as 62 on Dec. 1.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Beautiful weather this weekend in West Palm / Lake Worth:

Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)

Nov 24 Tonight
Showers and a few thundershowers. Low 72F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Nov 25 Tomorrow
Showers and thundershowers likely. High 79F. Winds S at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Nov 25 Tomorrow night
Showers and thundershowers during the evening followed by a few lingering showers overnight. Low 66F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Nov 26 Thursday
Morning showers. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
Nov 27 Friday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 50s.
Nov 28 Saturday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Nov 29 Sunday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Nov 30 Monday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
Dec 1 Tuesday
Mostly Cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
Dec 2 Wednesday
Isolated thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Dec 3 Thursday
Showers. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 60s.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Evening folks. Cannot read the blog as it is all stretched out. Is anyone else having this problem? Changed to "compatibility view" and it works now.

I have no problemo here Chickit.
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Evening folks. Cannot read the blog as it is all stretched out. Is anyone else having this problem? Changed to "compatibility view" and it works now.
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What's the difference between a positively tilted and negatively tilted low pressure system?
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System in gulf could bring severe weather to Fl
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190. amd
Latest Typhoon Nida estimates by ADT:
(From the CIMSS Website)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 NOV 2009 Time : 231600 UTC
Lat : 10:38:26 N Lon : 143:50:06 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 931.1mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.0 7.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +10.1C Cloud Region Temp : -79.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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188. xcool



SNOW BY 18Z GFS SLIDELL LA TO M.S
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 9.9N 144.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 144.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.5N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.3N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.6N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.5N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.6N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.2N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 143.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF GUAM,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION
WITH A 20NM EYE EVIDENT. A 241553Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS THE SMALL EYE
WITH FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CORE CONVECTION AND A WEAK BANDING FEATURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FIX. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES; RJTD REMAINS LOWER AT 65 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO TRACK
PHILOSOPHY WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72, BUT DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE
UKMO, GFS AND NOGAPS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TURN DUE
TO RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO A NORTHEASTERLY COOL SURGE. THE TC-LAPS,
JGSM, WBAR AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW THE
SYSTEM BY TAU 96. BASED ON THE EXPECTED PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS
AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 25N WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
TY 26W WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND RE-CURVE BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH THE REMNANTS
EITHER TRACKING NORTHWARD OR, IF IT WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY, TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z,
250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
(TWENTYSEVEN) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//
NNNN
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Quoting jipmg:
With that eye, that thing is much stronger than CAT2 by now




BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
800 AM CHST WED NOV 25 2009

...TYPHOON NIDA STILL MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM FARAULEP...

THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR FARAULEP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.9 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP
200 MILES NORTH OF WOLEAI
225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
235 MILES EAST OF FAIS
295 MILES EAST OF ULITHI AND
400 MILES EAST OF YAP.

TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

SIMPSON
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Longest November heatwave 130 years ago

The most recent heatwave was record-breaking for many areas, but in November 1878 a heatwave lasted almost twice as long, according to weatherzone.com.au.

Nearly all inland areas of New South Wales and South Australia and surrounding areas of Victoria, Queensland and the Northern Territory have had at least eight days of extreme heat, record-breaking for November.

But in some inland towns, records were not broken.

Inland weather stations which have measured temperature for the last 131 years or longer show that there was a November heatwave which lasted about two weeks.

Gunnedah, in northern NSW had 15 consecutive days of 35 degrees(95F) or hotter in November 1878. This month Gunnedah had nine in a row, the longest November stretch in 131 years. The northern NSW town only averages four-to-five days above 35(95F) in November.

With this piece of evidence one could claim that this most recent hot spell is unprecedented in November in 131 years.

For some coastal areas of South Australia, including Adelaide this year's heatwave is the longest on record for November. Official temperatures have been measured as far back as 1887 in Adelaide, but not as far back as 1878, like Gunnedah.

Weatherzone
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184. jipmg
With that eye, that thing is much stronger than CAT2 by now
I wonder if this will be the season ending Typhoon in the WPAC?












Loop
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NHC forecaster Lixion Avila's words at the Conference here in New Orleans yesterday.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
R.I.P. QuickSCAT
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Pat,

Thanks for the uploads. I'm going to check out ur blog when I take my next break.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Im uploading NHC forecaster's Dr. Lixion Avila words from yesterdays US Cuban Hurricane Conference here in New Orleans.
In the video,I point at the speaker as to not allow my cam to interfere with the folks sitting behind me,but I pan up at the end to the Panel members.

The upload will take a few minutes.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Looking at upper and lower level winds in the gulf there has got to be some twist in the atmosphere.Bp is also dropping all over gulf and western Carribean with strong low and upper winds.
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Sea and Air Pollution as seen from Orbiting sensors

ERS 2 image (GOME instrument)



The graph shows clearly the air pollution by SO2 over the Si-Chuan basin due to an extensive use of coal for warming and industrial emissions.


In this ERS 2 image, located northwest of Bergen (Norway), it is easy to detect a boat emptying its tank. A close collaboration between the satellite station an the Norwegian Authorities enable to control and prevent this kind of behaviour.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Quoting Patrap:

Trouble Breathing? Blame the Jet Stream.



Source: European Space Agency.

The above image shows atmospheric nitrogen dioxide concentrations worldwide. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a mainly man-made gas, produced by the usual suspects: power plants, transportation, industry, and biomass burning. Lightning in the air, and microbes in soil, also create nitrogen dioxide.

The map clearly exposes some of the world's known worst offenders--the East Coast megalopolis, London, Beijing--as well as some surprising pockets near Johannesberg and Eastern Kazhakstan.

Continued exposure to NO2 can cause lung damage and respiratory problems. NO2 levels in the U.S. are usually too low to cause any direct harm; unfortunately, NO2 also leads to the production of ozone in the lower atmosphere, an excess of which can heighten allergen sensitivity and cause temporary breathing difficulties.

How does air quality in the New York City compare to other places across the country? Not exactly as I expected...

Here are some Air Quality Indices for several locations across the U.S: New York, the location of ScienceBlogs Headquarters; Coos County, New Hampshire (my former home); Los Angeles, the smog capital of the U.S.; and Portland, OR, Katherine's former stomping grounds. I also threw in Beijing, for comparison.

As for the labored breathing, it looks like I can't blame my recent move. The Northeast appears to be our nation's tailpipe, whether you live in the Northern Forest, or under the Brooklyn Bridge.


I'm in the tailpipe? Don't think you'll be seeing that in any tourist brochures for new england.
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174. IKE
Quoting CrazyDuke:


That's because for the most part, it's not really a debate so much as people hurling accusations and preaching at each other in an effort to consul and reinforce their own ego's about the decision they've already made, regardless of what is said. Seriously, how many people can truthfully say they have based their belief on AGW on hard evidence, or at least some fairly sound reasoning? If it where legal, I'd be willing to bet all my assets that the overwhelming majority believe what they believe because some authority figure and/or talking head that caters to their egos told them to. Then, they went and still are looking for evidence to fit that pre-existing belief. This is regardless of their actual stance.


You may be correct....actually, after rereading your post, I agree with you, for the most part.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Most satellites that observed cooling likely observed stratospheric temperatures, or a combination of tropospheric, stratospheric, and ionospheric temperatures. This was predicted by the climate models. In fact, the cooling of the upper atmosphere has resulted in the shrinking of the atmoshpere at higher altitudes and an increase in the speeds of orbital satellites. If the measurements were global, then it is unlikely that some would show warming while others cooling, otherwise we must invalidate the data. Here's a graph of surface temperatures along with satellite observations: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Satellite_Temperatures.png . The recent stall in temperatures is not cooling. The warmest year on record was 2005, depending on which records you use. There have been four minor dips in the temperature record since anthropogenic forces took over from natural cycles over 30 years ago, and we are currently in the fourth and smallest dip: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png . This is just a short-term fluctuation which can be explained by solar cycles, which drive short-term change.


Gotta run before you actually do pull me in, but as I said, I'll finally finish up my model validation. Once it is done, I will update it monthly. That part is easy. Data is data.

We'll see about the temporary blip. By no means am I predicting what will occur. You could be right. But, maybe not, too. ;)

Just think, what if we get back down to 1985 or 1975 temps?

Good civil discussion, though. Thanks for that.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting IKE:
GW debate is like the energizer bunny....it just keeps going and going and going and going and going..........

It's worse than the arguments on here on whether an invest is RIP-ing or not.


That's because for the most part, it's not really a debate so much as people hurling accusations and preaching at each other in an effort to consul and reinforce their own ego's about the decision they've already made, regardless of what is said. Seriously, how many people can truthfully say they have based their belief on AGW on hard evidence, or at least some fairly sound reasoning? If it where legal, I'd be willing to bet all my assets that the overwhelming majority believe what they believe because some authority figure and/or talking head that caters to their egos told them to. Then, they went and still are looking for evidence to fit that pre-existing belief. This is regardless of their actual stance.
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171. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NIDA (T0922)
6:00 AM JST November 25 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Marianas Islands

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Nida (970 hPa) located at 10.2N 144.1 has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knot with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 13.5N 141.6E - 70 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
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Trouble Breathing? Blame the Jet Stream.



Source: European Space Agency.

The above image shows atmospheric nitrogen dioxide concentrations worldwide. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a mainly man-made gas, produced by the usual suspects: power plants, transportation, industry, and biomass burning. Lightning in the air, and microbes in soil, also create nitrogen dioxide.

The map clearly exposes some of the world's known worst offenders--the East Coast megalopolis, London, Beijing--as well as some surprising pockets near Johannesberg and Eastern Kazhakstan.

Continued exposure to NO2 can cause lung damage and respiratory problems. NO2 levels in the U.S. are usually too low to cause any direct harm; unfortunately, NO2 also leads to the production of ozone in the lower atmosphere, an excess of which can heighten allergen sensitivity and cause temporary breathing difficulties.

How does air quality in the New York City compare to other places across the country? Not exactly as I expected...

Here are some Air Quality Indices for several locations across the U.S: New York, the location of ScienceBlogs Headquarters; Coos County, New Hampshire (my former home); Los Angeles, the smog capital of the U.S.; and Portland, OR, Katherine's former stomping grounds. I also threw in Beijing, for comparison.

As for the labored breathing, it looks like I can't blame my recent move. The Northeast appears to be our nation's tailpipe, whether you live in the Northern Forest, or under the Brooklyn Bridge.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
169. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:


especially when both sides have said the same thing over and over and over


Amen to those comments.

But I understand if some believe it is sooo important, trying to convince non-"believers", to change their mind.

I'm just not into arguing.

And I've said this before...I believe gw exists. I believe the planet is getting warmer.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

Clouds of pollution pictured from space

Haze and dust from industrial activity blanket low-lying regions of eastern China and northern India, satellite images reveal
Next

Image 1: Haze from industrial and human activity in eastern China pools in the Yellow River's coastal plain (Image: MODIS Rapid Response Team/NASA)


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
The Debate

Should we or should we not continue to pollute the earth?

I thought the motto of life was to leave things better than the way you found them.


I think that is a wonderful sentiment and I agree with that 100%. However, do not raise taxes and put in all kinds of government regulations programs based on questionable statistics. Did you know that 79.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot?
Member Since: September 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 37
Quoting Seastep:


As I said, I'm not going to get into it other than to say that I am simply monitoring the obs vs. models. Don't need to be a PHD to validate it.

We have sat temps back to 1977 or so, or 30 years. 20 of those have shown warming, 10 cooling. If the next 10 still show cooling, how can a 50-50 be settled? It's not. Not a single model called for 10 years without warming, let alone 20 years. Not one.

And before you go with the data before that, I don't compare apples to oranges. Only apples to apples we have is sat temps.

And, those oranges are exactly what has been now called into question, and not just through suspicion anymore.

Talk to me in 10 years. Although, maybe I will finish my model validation project during the off season finally. :)

Most satellites that observed cooling likely observed stratospheric temperatures, or a combination of tropospheric, stratospheric, and ionospheric temperatures. This was predicted by the climate models. In fact, the cooling of the upper atmosphere has resulted in the shrinking of the atmoshpere at higher altitudes and an increase in the speeds of orbital satellites. If the measurements were global, then it is unlikely that some would show warming while others cooling, otherwise we must invalidate the data. Here's a graph of surface temperatures along with satellite observations: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Satellite_Temperatures.png . The recent stall in temperatures is not cooling. The warmest year on record was 2005, depending on which records you use. There have been four minor dips in the temperature record since anthropogenic forces took over from natural cycles over 30 years ago, and we are currently in the fourth and smallest dip: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png . This is just a short-term fluctuation which can be explained by solar cycles, which drive short-term change.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting IKE:


LOL...if I believe one way or you believe another, unless I'm trying to sell you something, I'll let you keep your opinion.

And even if I try to sell you something, I won't push you to buy. That's how I've approached my job and that's how I would approaching...dare I say it....gw.

We're all grains of sand on this planet and that's all. Yes......gw is important, but arguing over it is not my cup of tea.


especially when both sides have said the same thing over and over and over
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
The Debate

Should we or should we not continue to pollute the earth?

I thought the motto of life was to leave things better than the way you found them.


CO2 does not pollute the earth. That is all I am addressing. Purely outside the AGW debate and, again, exactly the point.

Debunking the false claim that CO2 is a pollutant outside the AGW debate.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
162. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:


Ike,you really enjoy punishing yourself,I think its called masochism!!


LOL...if I believe one way and you believe another, unless I'm trying to sell you something, I'll let you keep your opinion.

And even if I try to sell you something, I won't push you to buy. That's how I've approached my job and that's how I would approaching...dare I say it....gw.

We're all grains of sand on this planet and that's all. Yes......gw is important, but arguing over it is not my cup of tea.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting hurricanejunky:


If you wanna go back that far, about 15 million years ago. That was the last time it was as high as now. Global temps were 5-10 degrees higher and sea level was about 100 ft higher. Do we want a return to that?!?!?


Beside the point. Just responding to your "Jedi mind trick" of clearly giving the impression that CO2 is a pollutant outside the AGW debate, comparing it with other, truly harmful, pollutants.

And, I cannot even count the people I have had to correct on that....

Just making sure there aren't many more. That's all.

I won't get into whether increased CO2 levels follow warming or vv. ;)
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
The Debate

Should we or should we not continue to pollute the earth?

I thought the motto of life was to leave things better than the way you found them.
Well, I gotta go do some work. I'll check in later, when the after dinner crowd gets in... lol.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
SPC (Day 2)
...CENTRAL/S FL DURING THE DAY...
A SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX NOW MOVING FROM NE MEXICO TO THE WRN GULF
WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID
LEVEL WAVE AND WARM ADVECTION N OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE AND MOVE
EWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. THOUGH LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
WILL BE RATHER MODEST OVER FL GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AN INCREASE
IN LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED/ORGANIZED STORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. STILL...THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE INFLUENCE OF
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SUGGEST THAT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ARE MOST APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

There really isn't a debate any longer. We now have unequivocal evidence that global warming is happening, and that the most likely main cause (90% likelihood) is anthropogenic (man-made).

And before you argue that the IPCC is exaggerating things, it's not. The IPCC is actually a very conservative organization, due to the fact that its statements must undergo peer review and be approved by everyone. This includes some special interests in parts of the report, including fossil fuel companies.



Ahmmm. You might want to do a little research. Unequivocal evidence? Really isn't a debate any longer? I think finally a debate is going to be forced, like it or not. And that "unequivocal evidence" now looks pretty tainted.

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=2188feb3-802a-23a d-4de4-3fbc0a92e126&Issue_id
Member Since: September 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 37
Quoting IKE:



LOL...I don't even know what the IIPC is.:)


Ike,you really enjoy punishing yourself,I think its called masochism!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
155. IKE
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

There really isn't a debate any longer. We now have unequivocal evidence that global warming is happening, and that the most likely main cause (90% likelihood) is anthropogenic (man-made).

And before you argue that the IPCC is exaggerating things, it's not. The IPCC is actually a very conservative organization, due to the fact that its statements must undergo peer review and be approved by everyone. This includes some special interests in parts of the report, including fossil fuel companies.



LOL...I don't even know what the IIPC is.:)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

There really isn't a debate any longer. We now have unequivocal evidence that global warming is happening, and that the most likely main cause (90% likelihood) is anthropogenic (man-made).

And before you argue that the IPCC is exaggerating things, it's not. The IPCC is actually a very conservative organization, due to the fact that its statements must undergo peer review and be approved by everyone. This includes some special interests in parts of the report, including fossil fuel companies.


As I said, I'm not going to get into it other than to say that I am simply monitoring the obs vs. models. Don't need to be a PHD to validate it.

We have sat temps back to 1977 or so, or 30 years. 20 of those have shown warming, 10 cooling. If the next 10 still show cooling, how can a 50-50 be settled? It's not. Not a single model called for 10 years without warming, let alone 20 years. Not one.

And before you go with the data before that, I don't compare apples to oranges. Only apples to apples we have is sat temps.

And, those oranges are exactly what has been now called into question, and not just through suspicion anymore.

Talk to me in 10 years. Although, maybe I will finish my model validation project during the off season finally. :)
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting Seastep:


That was my point. I did not go into that.

You were trying to frame it as a pollutant OUTSIDE the AGW debate, which is why I felt the need to correct it.... outside the AGW debate.

And, again, your statement is still false in terms of "never before." CO2 has been higher many times throughout earth's history based on what we know.


If you wanna go back that far, about 15 million years ago. That was the last time it was as high as now. Global temps were 5-10 degrees higher and sea level was about 100 ft higher. Do we want a return to that?!?!?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
I wrote to Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) about QuikSCAT and the need for a replacement. He emailed back specifically about the satellite (not just a form letter about the general topic), so hopefully it will stay on his radar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
151. weatherneophyte
9:39 PM GMT on November 24, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


All air breathing creatures expel tons of it simultaneously with every breath. Some more than others :-/


Thank you. Exactly my point!
Member Since: September 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 37
150. hurricanejunky
9:39 PM GMT on November 24, 2009
Quoting weatherneophyte:
#101 You DO know that plants require CO2 to survive, right? And it's you that needs to "get real". As far as human's time on this earth is concerned, and as far as their impact on the planet, we're no more than a blink of an eye. Yes, YOU are insignificant in the general scheme of things. I am too, but at least my ego allows me to see that. By the way, my huge Hummer gets 12 mpg, so I'm doing my part


That's a nice sentiment. See the pretty plants needs C02. Hey dude, how about realizing that we're chopping down millions of acres of trees each year! There won't be any trees or plants left to breathe in the C02 at the rate we're going. It's kind of like having 8 air returns in your house but eliminating 7. The last time we had levels of C02 in the atmosphere this high was 15 million years ago. Why now since the industrial revolution began has the C02 spiked? That isn't a coincidence. It's a combination of deforestation and ridiculous amounts of C02 being dumped into the atmosphere (in addition to natural C02 emissions). One big difference between now and 15 million years ago is that the deforestation is coming along with the C02 spike. One thing to keep in mind, 15 million years ago the global temp was 5-10 degrees higher and sea level was about 100 ft higher. Raise the sea level 100 ft now and figure out the ramifications. Your Hummer not only spews the lovely C02 that you seem to love so much but also the toxic pollutants like carbon monoxide. Takes all kinds I guess...
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
149. xcool
9:38 PM GMT on November 24, 2009
yeah
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
148. BahaHurican
9:37 PM GMT on November 24, 2009
Quoting Floodman:


it's okay...I have plenty of meds and to be honest I'm doing pretty well; the only problem is that about the time I start dozing pretty well the phone rings...by the way, I think I'm going to hell...I said some rather foul things to some Pentecostals about 30 minutes ago; they wouldn't stop knocking on the door, you see, so I slammed open the door (as best I can slam open a door these days) and asked them what sort of fornicating idiot would knock on a fornicating door for 10 cursed of God minutes when it was pretty cursed of God evident that no one was going to answer it... Told them that I belonged to a sect of eastern orthodox catholicism that performed human sacrifice of idiots that knocked on doors and could I please have their address...they left at a truly rapid pace

I'm likely to fall asleep again in a few minutes, folks; not being rude but between my meds and being exhausted I can't seem to stay awake today

BBL
I'm truly surprised they didn't offer to pray for you....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
147. AstroHurricane001
9:36 PM GMT on November 24, 2009
Quoting IKE:
GW debate is like the energizer bunny....it just keeps going and going and going and going and going..........

It's worse than the arguments on here on whether an invest is RIP-ing or not.

There really isn't a debate any longer. We now have unequivocal evidence that global warming is happening, and that the most likely main cause (90% likelihood) is anthropogenic (man-made).

And before you argue that the IPCC is exaggerating things, it's not. The IPCC is actually a very conservative organization, due to the fact that its statements must undergo peer review and be approved by everyone. This includes some special interests in parts of the report, including fossil fuel companies.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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