Globe has 2nd - 7th warmest October on record; U.S., 3rd coldest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on November 23, 2009

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The globe recorded its sixth warmest October since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2009 as the 2nd warmest October on record, falling 0.06°C short of the record set in 2005, while the UK HADCRUT3 data set rated October the 7th warmest (this data set does not include most of the Arctic, Antarctic, and Africa, where there are few land stations). NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - October 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The October satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 6th - 7th warmest on record. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies were the 5th warmest on record.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Third coldest and top wettest October on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average October temperature was 4.0°F below average, making it the 3rd coldest October in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold was centered in the Midwest, where Oklahoma had its coolest October on record and ten other states had a top five coolest October. The nationwide precipitation of 4.15 inches was nearly double the long-term average of 2.11 inches. Three states (Iowa, Arkansas, and Louisiana) saw their record wettest October. Fourteen other states had precipitation readings ranking in their top five category. Only three states (Florida, Utah, and Arizona) saw below normal precipitation. Arkansas continued its remarkable run of wetness in 2009. The state has seen four months with top three precipitation ranks this year (May, 1st wettest; July, 3rd wettest; September, 2nd wettest; October, 1st wettest). As a result, the state's year-to-date average is the wettest in 115 years of record keeping. This contrasted with persistent dryness in Arizona, which saw its second-driest year-to-date period.

U.S. drought decreases
At the end of October, 12% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the second-smallest drought footprint of the decade, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Major drought episodes in California and South Texas improved significantly. Drought conditions emerged across much of Arizona. About 45% of the contiguous United States had moderately-to-extremely wet conditions at the end of October, according to the Palmer Index (a well-known index that measures both drought intensity and wet spell intensity). This is the largest such footprint since February 2005.

As I commented in a post earlier this year, drought, on average, has not been increasing in the U.S. over the past few decades. The exception is the Southwest U.S. Increased drought is my top concern in regards to the potential effects of climate change over the next 40 years, and I am pleased to see that so far we have not seen increased drought in the U.S. A recent paper by Andreadis et al., 2006, summed up 20th century drought in the U.S. thusly: "Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century. The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased."

However, drought may be increasing for the world as a whole. Dai and Trenberth (2004) showed that areas experiencing the three highest categories of drought--severe, extreme, and exceptional--more than doubled (from about 12% to 30%) since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an El Niño-related precipitation decrease over land, and subsequent increases primarily due to warming temperatures. I've neglected drought in my blogs, and plan to do a thorough investigation and report on the latest research now that hurricane season is over.

U.S. fire activity
October, like September, saw below-normal fire activity in all respects. A total of 3,207 fires burned about 158,000 acres in October, according to the National Interagency Coordination Center. Each of these values is below this decade's average for October.

Strong El Niño conditions develop
El Niño conditions intensified from moderate to strong over the tropical Eastern Pacific in October. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.7°C above average on November 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. El Niño conditions appear to have stabilized over the past week, and no further intensification of El Niño is likely for the remainder of November. Model forecasts favor moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2009 - 2010.

October sea ice extent in the Arctic 2nd lowest on record
October 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 2nd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. During the first two weeks of November, Arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record low ice extent this month is the first extended period of record minimum Arctic sea ice since 2007. The new record minimum suggests that the gains in ice seen over the past two years were probably a temporary fluctuation due to normal year-to-year variability in the weather, and that the long-term Arctic sea ice decline observed since the 1970s is continuing.


Figure 2. Departure of Arctic sea ice from average for October 2009. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

References
Andreadis, K. M. Lettenmaier, D. P., "Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States", Geo. Res. Letters 33, 10, L10403, DOI 10.1029/2006GL025711

Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 18702002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.

Next post
I'm working on a rather lengthy analysis of the global warming scientist vs. skeptic controversy, including last week's hacked email affair. I'll post it when I get it done, most likely on Tuesday, but perhaps Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
Ida,mistakes?..you guys need to get a reality check,that system in the Atlantic isnt tropical,..nor is it a threat to anything.

And the NHC performed well in all realms this season,..

What evidence do you have to produce a rant on the NHC ?

Im meeting with Avila,from the NHC here in NOLA in a few Hours ,and Ill be kind enough to ask him anything you want today

Or did I miss a Cat 5 or something?


I didn't say it was tropical, just said it was Hybrid. I was just stating my opinion on why it should have stayed named until the circulation fell apart. I'm with Accuweather on that. they kept calling it Ida even when it was a Noreaster. It did more damage there then it did when it was named, thus they should have kept the name for more media hype.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Ida,mistakes?..you guys need to get a reality check,that system in the Atlantic isnt tropical,..nor is it a threat to anything.

And the NHC performed well in all realms this season,..

What evidence do you have to produce a rant on the NHC ?

Im meeting with Avila,from the NHC here in NOLA in a few Hours ,and Ill be kind enough to ask him anything you want today

Or did I miss a Cat 5 or something?
hey pat cool Avila is one of my fav's at NHC for forcasters say hello for me pat
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting shred3590:
I still do not know enough to about the charting technique to know what range the dots represent. For example, it could be that the NOAA chart 1 degree dots represent 0-1 degree while the other chart that you posted has no anomaly from -.5 to .5 (as is clearly labeled). NOAA's technique could reserve the 0 dot for the transition point between positive and negative anomaly when it falls on the spot they draw the dot.


I understand your point, here. But it is undeniable that they are depicting 2 and 3 degree C positive anomalies for large areas of the Atlantic. And it is rather clear in the SST anomaly plot that a small area of +2 C is possible, mostly +1 or less, and no way a +3 could be construed...
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> The Center for International Policy Takes Pleasure in Inviting You to
>
> A Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes
>
> To be held November 23, 2009, in New Orleans at River City Plaza, next to
Mardi Gras World
>
> 1380 Port of New Orleans Place
>
>
>
> 2 p.m. – Introduction by Wayne S. Smith of the Center for International Policy
>
>
>
> 2:15 – 2:45 p.m. – Vital U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Tracking Hurricanes and
Warning of their Approach. Jose Rubiera, of the Cuban Meteorological Center
(invited) and Lixion Avila of the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami. Chaired by
Jay Higginbotham, Archivist Emeritus of Mobile
>
>
>
> 2:45 – 4:00 p.m. - U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in the Face of Hurricanes.
Dagoberto Rodriguez Barrera, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Relations
(invited); Lt.General (Ret) Russel Honore, Former Commander of Joint Task Force
Katrina; Lt. Col (Ret) Jerry Sneed, Director of Emergency Preparedness of
Orleans Parish; Ivor van Heerden, Founder of the Louisiana State University
Hurricane Center; Robert Turner, Director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood
Protection Authority. Chaired by Wayne Smith, Center for International Policy.
>
>
>
> 4:00 – 4:30 p.m. – The Growing Focus on Disaster Medicine and Disaster
Management in Both the U.S. and Cuba. Dr. Guillermo Mesa Ridel, Director, Latin
American Center for Disaster Medicine (invited); Dr. Alex Isakov, Founding
Director of the Emory University Office of Critical Event Preparedness and
Response; Lt. Gen Russel Honore, Board Member of LSU’s Stephenson Disaster
Management Institute; Chaired by Randy Poindexter, Executive Director of
International Cuba Society
>
>
>
> 4:30 – 4:45 p.m. – President Obama’s Prerogative, Despite the Embargo, to
Authorize U.S. Companies to Sell Cuba Reconstruction Materials and Equipment.
Robert L. Muse, Attorney, Muse and Associates
>
>
>
> 4:45 – 5:00 p.m. – Shared Ecosystems: Opportunities for Increasing
Environmental Cooperation and Collaboration between Cuba and the United States.
Dan Whittle, Senior Attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund.
>
>
>
> 5:00 – 6:00 p.m. – Open Discussion. Participants from the various delegations
to Cuba, and other interested parties, are invited to comment and express
opinions as to new initiatives and directions and how we could better organize
to advance our objectives. Mr. Ky Luu, the Director of the Tulane University
Disaster Resilience Leadership Academy, will have the first comment.
>
>
>
> 6:00 – 7:30 p.m. - Reception with cash bar in the Grand Oaks Mansion
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting Patrap:
Ida,mistakes?..you guys need to get a reality check,that system in the Atlantic isnt tropical,..nor is it a threat to anything.

And the NHC performed well in all realms this season,..

What evidence do you have to produce a rant on the NHC ?

Im meeting with Avilia,from the NHC here in NOLA in a few Hours ,and Ill be kind enough to ask him anything you want today

Or did I miss a Cat 5 or something?


Thank you Patrap. Someone had to say it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Anyone see the cover photo on Al Gore's new book? It's a full disc globe shot of our hemisphere.

They air-brushed out the icecap and added four hurricanes to the globe while keeping the US devoid of clouds. One hurricane off the baja, one in the central Atlantic, another right on the equator in the Epac and then one right off of Florida and its spinning the wrong way!!
Solid science.

I thought it even worse that they depicted (presumably) sea level rise had completely erased all of the Caribbean Islands, Panama, and other rather high-elevation areas, but left low places like the Yucatan, Louisiana, Florida, etc. If Panama's peaks went underwater, everything east of the Rockies would be under.

Whatever they are depicting by having the places they chose to be underwater, it is completely goofy.

A complete fantasy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ida,mistakes?..you guys need to get a reality check,that system in the Atlantic isnt tropical,..nor is it a threat to anything.

And the NHC performed well in all realms this season,..

What evidence do you have to produce a rant on the NHC ?

Im meeting with Avila,from the NHC here in NOLA in a few Hours ,and Ill be kind enough to ask him anything you want today

Or did I miss a Cat 5 or something?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Its the same with winter forecasting as with tropical forecasting.The long range model forecaasting is always suspect,and has to be taken with a grain of salt,but definitely something to watch.
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Quoting P451:


If the models pan out then the first week of December would probably bring snow events to inland areas from NC right into the North East US.

It's a wait and see scenario for now. It's too far into the future to tell. This current system in the area was slated to be a big nor'easter but a few days ago according to the models.



Thanks for the response. I know the 10 day forecasts are not very accurate, but at least it will be something interesting to watch and hope for!!
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Quoting reedzone:
Wind shear has dropped amazingly to 10 knots over X-Ida... but because of the cooler waters, the NHC doesn't recognize this. I really don't know what to say about them anymore, rough year in predicting storms.


They made the same mistake about Pre-Grace and a 92L earlier this year.
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Quoting NEwxguy:
Friday's nor'easter looks to be a sizable one,lots of wind and rain for me.Good day for digesting all that Thursday food.

Et Tu, Brute?
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Quoting Kittykatz:
Quoting Squawk: Welcome to the winter version of blob watching. Models hinting at things too many days away to be taken seriously. Something to watch for so you are not surprised but, don't count on it either.

I keep an eye on those blobs. It can cause havoc on my commute. I live in Virginia and use the "beloved" I-95 to reach my workplace.


ROFL -- no one would believe it who hasn't experienced it. Even pics, video, and traffic stats don't do it justice.
- 495 Beltway Brat
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Something that may be small in the hurricane/typhoon/tornado sense, but if anyone here has ever visited the English Lake District, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8373937.stm will be news. More than 12 inches of rain - a 24 hour record for the UK - fell on waterlogged mountains. Only one person has died - a police officer who was stopping traffic going onto a bridge when it fell - but some thousands of people will be out of their homes and businesses for months. Because for the worst hit areas, the floods were the second within fourteen months, a number had found insurance prohibitive. The house where the poet Wordsworth was born is among those damaged.

http://www.cumbriafoundation.org/ if you feel moved to help. Thank you
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Wind shear has dropped amazingly to 10 knots over X-Ida... but because of the cooler waters, the NHC doesn't recognize this. I really don't know what to say about them anymore, rough year in predicting storms.
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Friday's nor'easter looks to be a sizable one,lots of wind and rain for me.Good day for digesting all that Thursday food.
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Quoting P451:
RAMSDIS has placed a floater over X-Ida

Link



Fact is, it doesn't look to have frontal characteristics, convection is deep and continuing to develop, it's alow, Hybrid at best. Why not name it? I gotta agree with Accuweather and Joe Bastardi, this should have kept it's name, even when it became a Nor'easter because media was not all over this. This is a very big debate, but I'm in for keeping the name until it's completely gone, not forget it after it looses it's tropical characteristics.
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Weather.com website is calling for a mix of rain to snow for Greensboro, NC by Wednesday of NEXT week. Anyone have any thoughts on this or links to forecast models showing the possibility of a Piedmont snow event?
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58.

I misunderstood what the NOAA chart was representing. I though that it was satellite air temperature. I agree that their description does appear that it should be sea surface temperature anomaly.

My original post was regarding the complexity of comparing observed air temperature anomalies with observed sea surface temperature anomalies and drawing a conclusion from those two data sets without more analysis.

I still do not know enough to about the charting technique to know what range the dots represent. For example, it could be that the NOAA chart 1 degree dots represent 0-1 degree while the other chart that you posted has no anomaly from -.5 to .5 (as is clearly labeled). NOAA's technique could reserve the 0 dot for the transition point between positive and negative anomaly when it falls on the spot they draw the dot.

It is an interesting issue that I don't have time to look into since I do not work in that field.
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Quoting Patrap:

The warming continues regardless of the debate here,or elsewhere.

Invest in thought and common sense.

They both will serve one well.


But is it suppose to rise due to cycles?
The earth is 4.5 billion yrs old and we have destroyed in 100 yrs?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone see the cover photo on Al Gore's new book? It's a full disc globe shot of our hemisphere.

They air-brushed out the icecap and added four hurricanes to the globe while keeping the US devoid of clouds. One hurricane off the baja, one in the central Atlantic, another right on the equator in the Epac and then one right off of Florida and its spinning the wrong way!!
Solid science.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Squawk: Welcome to the winter version of blob watching. Models hinting at things too many days away to be taken seriously. Something to watch for so you are not surprised but, don't count on it either.

I keep an eye on those blobs. It can cause havoc on my commute. I live in Virginia and use the "beloved" I-95 to reach my workplace.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:

The warming continues regardless of the debate here,or elsewhere.

Invest in thought and common sense.

They both will serve one well.


Yea not so fast
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http://www.surfacestations.org/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

The warming continues regardless of the debate here,or elsewhere.

Invest in thought and common sense.

They both will serve one well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
54:

The NOAA introduction:

"Temperature anomalies for October 2009 are shown on the dot maps below. The dot map on the left provides a spatial representation of anomalies calculated from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) dataset of land surface stations using a 1961-1990 base period. The dot map on the right is a product of a merged land surface and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly analysis developed by Smith et al. (2008). For the merged land surface and SST analysis, temperature anomalies with respect to the 1971-2000 average for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form the global analysis."

I don't think they are considering all of the factors you are. Reads like the SST anomaly IS what we should be seeing.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global&year=2009&month=10&submitted=Get Report
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USGS


Glacier Monitoring Studies
Monitoring and Assessing Glacier Changes and Their Associated Hydrologic and Ecologic Effects in Glacier National Park



Purpose:

To systematically monitor changes in Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers and to determine the causes of changes, assess their ecological and hydrological effects, and predict future changes and effects.
GPS data collection, Sperry Glacier, 2005, USGS Photo

Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers have receded rapidly since the Park’s establishment in 1910, primarily due to long-term changes in regional and global climate. These changes include warming, particularly of daily minimum temperatures, and persistent droughts. This warming is ongoing and the loss of the Park’s glaciers continues, with the park’s glaciers predicted to disappear by 2030.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting Chucktown:


Of course the earth has cycles - my main argument for AGW - why are we basing this so called global warming on data that we have since 1880. That is such a miniscule amount of time versus how long the planet has been around. Global warming is nothing but a media and politically driven phenomenon.


Exactly.
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Quoting Chucktown:


Of course the earth has cycles - my main argument for AGW - why are we basing this so called global warming on data that we have since 1880. That is such a miniscule amount of time versus how long the planet has been around. Global warming is nothing but a media and politically driven phenomenon.

I agree that we are making far too many huge leaps based upon incomplete data. That said... what if the projections are right? We do know we are taking more out of the world than we are putting in. Address that, and many of the AGW/GW/CC issues will become much more clear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
37.

I think your logic is flawed regarding anomalies matching up. Sea surface temperature is influenced by subsurface currents and a giant pool of near freezing water. Furthermore, sea surface temperatures take a long time to react to air temperatures alone.

An important factor not considered is wind speed. What happened to the local winds in a given area? Think about the surface temperature anomalies before and after the passage of a hurricane to demonstrate the importance of this factor.

Another factor that must be considered to really draw any conclusions is the vertical sea surface temperature profile. Did the thermocline depth change? How about the variation of temperature across the thermocline? What if the measured sea surface temperature has changed by .5 degrees, but the depth of the water has increased by hundreds of feet? That would indicate an anomalous storage of heat that, according to your logic, we should expect. It may or may not be there: we simply cannot tell from this data set.

I don't think that you can compare the two charts alone and make any conclusions at all. You have to look at the scientific interrelationship between air temperature and sea surface temperature, then factor in all of the other forces that influence the relationship to determine whether the sea surface temperature anomaly chart is consistent with the air temperature anomaly chart. I doubt anyone on this blog has the access or knowledge to make that comparison. If I am wrong, I would love to see the results.
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Quoting taistelutipu:
The UK Meteorological Office has more fuel to the climate change debate on its official website.

New climate mitigation scenario highlights stark challenge ahead

Latest research has shown that emissions of CO2 will need to be reduced close to zero by the end of this century if a rise in the mean global temperature beyond 2 °C is to be avoided. A temperature rise of no more than 2 °C is widely acknowledged as the ‘safe’ level to avoid dangerous climate change.

read more here




It's the "American Way". Procrastinate until it's too late.
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Quoting Magicchaos:
Western Pacific is really active again. Another TCFA...

WTPN22 PGTW 231100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230951ZNOV2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 4.5N 107.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231030Z INDICATES A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N
107.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR A QUICKLY IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 230156Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH CENTER WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30-KNOT PERIPHERIAL WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST (ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE THROUGH THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA) AND 20-25 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER. FINALLY, A 230931Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING TOWARDS THE LLCC, ILLUSTRATING
THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241100Z.





Once this becomes a Tropical Cyclone, That will make 3 cyclones in the Western Pacific simultaneously.

Awfully far south to get a circ going.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mrnicktou:
Does nobody really believe the Earth has cycles. The temperature doesn't just stay the same every year.


Of course the earth has cycles - my main argument for AGW - why are we basing this so called global warming on data that we have since 1880. That is such a miniscule amount of time versus how long the planet has been around. Global warming is nothing but a media and politically driven phenomenon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Magicchaos:
Western Pacific is really active again. Another TCFA...

WTPN22 PGTW 231100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230951ZNOV2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 4.5N 107.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231030Z INDICATES A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N
107.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR A QUICKLY IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 230156Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH CENTER WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30-KNOT PERIPHERIAL WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST (ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE THROUGH THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA) AND 20-25 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER. FINALLY, A 230931Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING TOWARDS THE LLCC, ILLUSTRATING
THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241100Z.





Once this becomes a Tropical Cyclone, That will make 3 cyclones in the Western Pacific simultaneously.

4.5*N? That is really far south!
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Over 100 icebergs drifting to N.Zealand: official


Link
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Does nobody really believe the Earth has cycles. The temperature doesn't just stay the same every year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Western Pacific is really active again. Another TCFA...

WTPN22 PGTW 231100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230951ZNOV2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 4.5N 107.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231030Z INDICATES A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N
107.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR A QUICKLY IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 230156Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH CENTER WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30-KNOT PERIPHERIAL WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST (ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE THROUGH THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA) AND 20-25 KNOTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER. FINALLY, A 230931Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONVERGING TOWARDS THE LLCC, ILLUSTRATING
THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE IMPROVING NATURE OF THE
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241100Z.





Once this becomes a Tropical Cyclone, That will make 3 cyclones in the Western Pacific simultaneously.
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Key points: Global temp readings - since record keeping began in 1880. How good are these "global" records in 1922? What were the scientific standards back then, if any? BTW, I don't think the first decent weather satellite went up until the 1960's...so, count me as a skeptic as to any precise date before then.

Also, as far as sea ice is concerned, the key phrase in the article is: since satellite measurements began in 1979. So what do we have before that, anecdotal evidence?

It doesn't matter anyway. The US Senate is not going to agree to any Global warming deal as long as unemployment is north of 10%. People in the US simply don't care, especially those of us living in fly-over country.

By the way, I am not against Dr. Masters. I enjoy reading his evaluations of the weather and especially hurricanes. I just disagree with his stance on global warming. Just because he is a respected and well published scientist does not necessarily make him in the right on this issue. I think nature is too big for man to make the kind of impact that is claimed. Natural forces, like the eruption of Mt Pinatubo or the amount of sunspots are what causes these changes.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704888404574550354125452242.html
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The UK Meteorological Office has more fuel to the climate change debate on its official website.

New climate mitigation scenario highlights stark challenge ahead

Latest research has shown that emissions of CO2 will need to be reduced close to zero by the end of this century if a rise in the mean global temperature beyond 2 °C is to be avoided. A temperature rise of no more than 2 °C is widely acknowledged as the ‘safe’ level to avoid dangerous climate change.

read more here

I'm getting the popcorn...


But to tell the truth, something is definitely wrong with the weather here, as I pointed out in one of my comments on the previous blog. Almost every year since 2000 the UK has had flooding issues.
The current flooding here just gets worse and worse. More heavy rain announced for tomorrow in the North West, up to 100 mm (4 inches) in places which have received up to a foot of rain in the last 7 days.

Apart from 1,300 properties which sustained flood damage there are 1,800 bridges in the area which either collapsed or have sustained damage and need to be checked before they can be opened again for traffic. Some communities are practically cut off supply, supermarkets running out of goods, cash machines are not refilled so no money... there you see how much dependent we have become on access by roads. It'll take weeks to get the traffic situation back to normal.
Insurance companies face claims of an estimated £100m (approx. $166m)

After a short break after the heavy showers on Tuesday rain will probably continue towards the end of the week. I don't know how we are going to cope with that, it'll make matters worse.
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am i right
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Quoting atmoaggie:

What? Globally, SST values for a week from the middle of the month should be represented at least somewhat closely in the monthly analysis.

Here is the one from the next week.


How did NOAA get +2 and +3 C for most of the Atlantic!?!
It is not there!

Don't understand your point about air and water temps. Sure the passage of a cold front might have air temps well below water temps, but globally, averaged over an entire month, night and day, with respect to "normal", and given that we do not have historical or satellite air temp over the oceans, SST should match up.

I do see your point in the Atlantic. I was looking more at the Pacific, especially in light of El Nino.
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The discussion from NOAA's page about SST values:

"The worldwide sea surface temperatures (SST) during October 2009 were warmer than average across all oceans, with the exception of cooler-than-average conditions across much of the near-Antarctic southern oceans, the Gulf of Alaska, and parts of northwestern Atlantic Ocean, and along the western coasts of Australia and South America. The global ocean temperature represented the fifth warmest October on record, with an anomaly of 0.50C (0.90F) above the 20th century average. El Nio persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during October 2009. Sea surface temperature anomalies were at least 1.0C (1.8F) above average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean."

Sounds closer to the SST anomaly maps than the plotted data looks....
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For those who are interested, the forecast I made for my area at 5:00PM EST last night.



I'm making another one at around the same time today.
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how cold will se fl get to low in the upper 40 is that right
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29...

the top graph shows temp anomolies for the ENTIRE month of oct (averaged out)

the bottom graph you posted only shows temp anomolies for a ONE WEEK PERIOD

big difference in trying to compare 2 graphs, when one shows data for 30 days and the other for only 7.
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AMEN!!!Apocalypse-induced misanthropic enviromental nervousness.What do i have to do to join this church.Do i make the check out to Al Gore or to someone in congress or senate.The end can't get here soon enough.I am a true man made global warming believer.Did not know the center of earth was millions of degrees hot until your minister Al Gore said it on the news.Scary stuff where is the offering plate.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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