Globe has 2nd - 7th warmest October on record; U.S., 3rd coldest
The globe recorded its sixth warmest October since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2009 as the 2nd warmest October on record, falling 0.06°C short of the record set in 2005, while the UK HADCRUT3 data set rated October the 7th warmest (this data set does not include most of the Arctic, Antarctic, and Africa, where there are few land stations). NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - October 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The October satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 6th - 7th warmest on record. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies were the 5th warmest on record.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Third coldest and top wettest October on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average October temperature was 4.0°F below average, making it the 3rd coldest October in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold was centered in the Midwest, where Oklahoma had its coolest October on record and ten other states had a top five coolest October. The nationwide precipitation of 4.15 inches was nearly double the long-term average of 2.11 inches. Three states (Iowa, Arkansas, and Louisiana) saw their record wettest October. Fourteen other states had precipitation readings ranking in their top five category. Only three states (Florida, Utah, and Arizona) saw below normal precipitation. Arkansas continued its remarkable run of wetness in 2009. The state has seen four months with top three precipitation ranks this year (May, 1st wettest; July, 3rd wettest; September, 2nd wettest; October, 1st wettest). As a result, the state's year-to-date average is the wettest in 115 years of record keeping. This contrasted with persistent dryness in Arizona, which saw its second-driest year-to-date period.
U.S. drought decreases
At the end of October, 12% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the second-smallest drought footprint of the decade, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Major drought episodes in California and South Texas improved significantly. Drought conditions emerged across much of Arizona. About 45% of the contiguous United States had moderately-to-extremely wet conditions at the end of October, according to the Palmer Index (a well-known index that measures both drought intensity and wet spell intensity). This is the largest such footprint since February 2005.
As I commented in a post earlier this year, drought, on average, has not been increasing in the U.S. over the past few decades. The exception is the Southwest U.S. Increased drought is my top concern in regards to the potential effects of climate change over the next 40 years, and I am pleased to see that so far we have not seen increased drought in the U.S. A recent paper by Andreadis et al., 2006, summed up 20th century drought in the U.S. thusly: "Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century. The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased."
However, drought may be increasing for the world as a whole. Dai and Trenberth (2004) showed that areas experiencing the three highest categories of drought--severe, extreme, and exceptional--more than doubled (from about 12% to 30%) since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an El Niño-related precipitation decrease over land, and subsequent increases primarily due to warming temperatures. I've neglected drought in my blogs, and plan to do a thorough investigation and report on the latest research now that hurricane season is over.
U.S. fire activity
October, like September, saw below-normal fire activity in all respects. A total of 3,207 fires burned about 158,000 acres in October, according to the National Interagency Coordination Center. Each of these values is below this decade's average for October.
Strong El Niño conditions develop
El Niño conditions intensified from moderate to strong over the tropical Eastern Pacific in October. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.7°C above average on November 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. El Niño conditions appear to have stabilized over the past week, and no further intensification of El Niño is likely for the remainder of November. Model forecasts favor moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2009 - 2010.
October sea ice extent in the Arctic 2nd lowest on record
October 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 2nd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. During the first two weeks of November, Arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record low ice extent this month is the first extended period of record minimum Arctic sea ice since 2007. The new record minimum suggests that the gains in ice seen over the past two years were probably a temporary fluctuation due to normal year-to-year variability in the weather, and that the long-term Arctic sea ice decline observed since the 1970s is continuing.
Figure 2. Departure of Arctic sea ice from average for October 2009. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
References
Andreadis, K. M. Lettenmaier, D. P., "Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States", Geo. Res. Letters 33, 10, L10403, DOI 10.1029/2006GL025711
Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 18702002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.
Next post
I'm working on a rather lengthy analysis of the global warming scientist vs. skeptic controversy, including last week's hacked email affair. I'll post it when I get it done, most likely on Tuesday, but perhaps Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Wish I could have come down, Pat. Knew I couldn't...
Van Heerden really likes to talk to people, it seems. Once had dinner with the guy...talked his head off. (I enjoyed every minute)
One of the pleasant surprises today was my conversation with Him.
He's also very aware of the wunderground.com and supports the open discussions offered here as well.
8-14 day temps....
Latest info I have seen:
000
NOUS72 KNES 231428
ADMNES
SUBJECT: USER NOTIFICATION ABOUT QUIKSCAT PRODUCTS. ISSUED 11/23/09
*DATE/TIME(UTC) MESSAGE ISSUED:
*
23 NOVEMBER 2009/1300 UTC
*SATELLITE(S) INVOLVED:
*
QUIKSCAT
*PRODUCT(S) INVOLVED/AFFECTED:
*
ALL QUIKSCAT PRODUCTS
*DETAILS:
*
THE SCATTEROMETER ANTENNA SPIN MECHANISM HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE.
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS THE ANTENNA
SPIN MECHANISM HAS BEEN UNABLE TO MAINTAIN A CONSTANT 18 RPM ROTATION
RATE. THE SPIN RATE HAS DROPPED TO
ZERO SEVERAL TIMES. THE SPIN RATE CONTROL IS CURRENT LIMITED AND AS A
RESULT THE MOTOR IS UNABLE TO DELIVER SUFFICIENT
TORQUE TO OVERCOME THE INCREASED AND RAPIDLY VARYING BEARING FRICTION.
THE ANTENNA SUBSYSTEM CAN BE BEST
DESCRIBED AS "CHATTERING". AS DESIGNED, THE OPERATIONAL DATA PROCESSING
SYSTEM IS DROPPING ALL SIGMA0 MEASUREMENTS
FOR SPIN RATES BELOW 15 RPM AS DESIGNED AND THUS NO WIND RETRIEVALS ARE
BEING MADE FOR SPIN RATES BELOW 15RPM.
THE QUIKSCAT WINDS BEING RETRIEVED ARE STILL OF THE SAME QUALITY AS
PREVIOUSLY BUT AS THE GAPS IN THE DATA
SWATHS INCREASE USERS MIGHT START SEEING PROBLEMS IN THE AMBIGUITY
REMOVAL PORTION OF THE PROCESSING (INCONSISTENT
DIRECTIONS). SMALL GAPS CAN NOW BE SEEN IN THE CURRENT PASSES
HTTP://MANATI.ORBIT.NESDIS.NOAA.GOV/QUIKSCAT. IT APPEARS
THAT THE QUIKSCAT MISSION MAY BE NEAR ITS END OF NOMINAL OPERATING LIFE
AND FURTHER NOTICES WILL BE SENT AS EVENTS UNFOLD.
ASCAT and other sources will augment the Loss
I sure learned a lot about US-Cuban Hurricane past History and the hope of future collaboration as well pottery.
Look for my entry on the conference late tomorrow or weds.
Great Britain/England with another strong low heading their way..
This example is for Houston
To get a forecast for another city, all one has to do is enter the city of interest, and then click on the 16 day forecast link.
Havana, Nov 23.- US General Russell Honore who lived the experience of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005 said that Cuba has valuable lessons to show the US in the fight against natural disasters and urged Washington to improve relations with the island, according to the daily Shreveport Times.
“The Cuban people know how to handle hurricanes”, said General Honore who was characterized by the daily as a “hard line general”.
“Despite the island being a small nation, with economic difficulties, they work well to prevent damages caused by hurricanes and prepare and avoid damages to its people and property”, said the US General.
General Honore presented on Monday a conference on Cooperation between Cuba and the US in defense of hurricanes. Also participating in the meeting is Dr. Jose Rubiera, Director of the National Weather Institute. 3 (Taken from RHC-Cubadebate)
That is a nice site
Do you know what kind of carbon footprint those big rockets will leave not to mention how much space junk there is already out there.
Can't have it both ways boys.
Yes, Geoff, people were much nicer to each other in those days! Even those who disagreed with him politically understood the tragedy of what occurred.
The GFS and ECMWF shows another front coming down mid next week. Enough mid to upper level dynamics to push the front through and keep us cool.
I would imagine like a 9/11 scenario.
And that sorrow wasnt eased until I was 9,to a certain degree, when the Apollo 11 Landing and return occurred and America had realized his Dream,..and accomplished it.
Those of us 50 or Older will always know what JFK meant to America,and how much we lost that fateful day,46 years ago.
WDPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MINDINAO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED 50 NM TO THE
NORTH. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BOTH POSITIONING AND
MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30-35
KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RESTRICTED OUTFLOW OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED FROM 55 TO 45 KNOTS AT THE EXTENDED TAUS.
B. TD 27W IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED NORTH AND IS NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY (QS). TD 27W IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QS THROUGH TAU 48 BUT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TS 26W. WEAK INTERACTION IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEMS APPROACH WITHIN 600 NM AFTER TAU 72. TD 26W
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 30-35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER MARGINAL CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
POLEWARD AND SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40-45 KNOTS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE QS TRACK WITH SEVERAL MODELS SUPPORTING WEAK
INTERACTION AND MERGER; TD 27W IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS
INTO THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF TS 26W.//
NNNN
A true testament to her Builders,and those who maintained it on orbit as well.
Goodnight QuikScat, and we thank you.
And did I read right that it would be at least 2015 til a new satellite could be launched?
Heard it was getting cold in Alaska, too! Go figure. I think they mgiht exagerate the low temperatures in Florida to make the residents feel they are getting a break from the heat. It was 87 deg today. How could it go down to 40 in just a few days, it doesn't make sense.
How will we know a storm is coming without the satellite. We obviously can't trust the scientists after this week-ends fiasco. Whom do we trust now. I guess we will just have to watch Fox news and see what they say. They always get it right.
QuikSCAT follow - on concept study
Authors: Gaston, Robert W.
Rodriquez, Ernesto
Keywords: surface vector winds
ocean surface vector winds (OSVW)
QuikSCAT replacement
Issue Date: Apr-2008
Publisher: Pasadena, CA : Jet Propulsion Laboratory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2008.
Series/Report no.: JPL Publication
08-18
http://www.bing.com/weather/search?q=ft%20lauderdale%20weather&P1=[WeatherAnswer%20Scenario=%22Weat herOverviewPage%22%20Unit=%22F%22]
Ha ha Geoff. Look at the link. We broke a record today set in 1989. I don't know who was keeping records that far back, but they should be reliable.
You weren't looking in the right places.
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