Globe has 2nd - 7th warmest October on record; U.S., 3rd coldest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on November 23, 2009

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The globe recorded its sixth warmest October since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2009 as the 2nd warmest October on record, falling 0.06°C short of the record set in 2005, while the UK HADCRUT3 data set rated October the 7th warmest (this data set does not include most of the Arctic, Antarctic, and Africa, where there are few land stations). NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - October 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The October satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 6th - 7th warmest on record. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies were the 5th warmest on record.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Third coldest and top wettest October on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average October temperature was 4.0°F below average, making it the 3rd coldest October in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold was centered in the Midwest, where Oklahoma had its coolest October on record and ten other states had a top five coolest October. The nationwide precipitation of 4.15 inches was nearly double the long-term average of 2.11 inches. Three states (Iowa, Arkansas, and Louisiana) saw their record wettest October. Fourteen other states had precipitation readings ranking in their top five category. Only three states (Florida, Utah, and Arizona) saw below normal precipitation. Arkansas continued its remarkable run of wetness in 2009. The state has seen four months with top three precipitation ranks this year (May, 1st wettest; July, 3rd wettest; September, 2nd wettest; October, 1st wettest). As a result, the state's year-to-date average is the wettest in 115 years of record keeping. This contrasted with persistent dryness in Arizona, which saw its second-driest year-to-date period.

U.S. drought decreases
At the end of October, 12% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the second-smallest drought footprint of the decade, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Major drought episodes in California and South Texas improved significantly. Drought conditions emerged across much of Arizona. About 45% of the contiguous United States had moderately-to-extremely wet conditions at the end of October, according to the Palmer Index (a well-known index that measures both drought intensity and wet spell intensity). This is the largest such footprint since February 2005.

As I commented in a post earlier this year, drought, on average, has not been increasing in the U.S. over the past few decades. The exception is the Southwest U.S. Increased drought is my top concern in regards to the potential effects of climate change over the next 40 years, and I am pleased to see that so far we have not seen increased drought in the U.S. A recent paper by Andreadis et al., 2006, summed up 20th century drought in the U.S. thusly: "Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century. The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased."

However, drought may be increasing for the world as a whole. Dai and Trenberth (2004) showed that areas experiencing the three highest categories of drought--severe, extreme, and exceptional--more than doubled (from about 12% to 30%) since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an El Niño-related precipitation decrease over land, and subsequent increases primarily due to warming temperatures. I've neglected drought in my blogs, and plan to do a thorough investigation and report on the latest research now that hurricane season is over.

U.S. fire activity
October, like September, saw below-normal fire activity in all respects. A total of 3,207 fires burned about 158,000 acres in October, according to the National Interagency Coordination Center. Each of these values is below this decade's average for October.

Strong El Niño conditions develop
El Niño conditions intensified from moderate to strong over the tropical Eastern Pacific in October. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.7°C above average on November 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. El Niño conditions appear to have stabilized over the past week, and no further intensification of El Niño is likely for the remainder of November. Model forecasts favor moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2009 - 2010.

October sea ice extent in the Arctic 2nd lowest on record
October 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 2nd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. During the first two weeks of November, Arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record low ice extent this month is the first extended period of record minimum Arctic sea ice since 2007. The new record minimum suggests that the gains in ice seen over the past two years were probably a temporary fluctuation due to normal year-to-year variability in the weather, and that the long-term Arctic sea ice decline observed since the 1970s is continuing.


Figure 2. Departure of Arctic sea ice from average for October 2009. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

References
Andreadis, K. M. Lettenmaier, D. P., "Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States", Geo. Res. Letters 33, 10, L10403, DOI 10.1029/2006GL025711

Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 18702002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.

Next post
I'm working on a rather lengthy analysis of the global warming scientist vs. skeptic controversy, including last week's hacked email affair. I'll post it when I get it done, most likely on Tuesday, but perhaps Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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338. P451
NEW BLOG



Link


NEW BLOG



Link
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting Orcasystems:
Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?



If true, and I believe it is. They ought to be brought up criminal charges.
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336. P451
NOAA 17 Image, off the canary islands weather website.



Link
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
335. P451
Quoting winter123:


Quikscat is down or something, but AScatc confirms a near closed or closed surface low! I'm amazed this is not even a yellow circle. Hello, NHC, its still officially atlantic hurricane season! Drop your beer and get back to work.


doubt it will be absorbed by this front but it is headed to deathly cold water. But come on, no invest, no yellow circle even? If something is warm core, outflow on all sides, and has a LLC I think that warrents a yellow circle.


Post 181.

Good catch. It did look very healthy there. It is deteriorating though and has merged with/interacted with that front now this AM...so that's probably it for any tropical or sub tropical regeneration.

Seems to want to hold together though. Hints are a brush with the Azores and then a turn towards Morocco.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Tropical Storm Bongani
(at 4AM EST)11.1S 51.5E
Winds:45MPH
Movement:SSW at 13MPH
Avg. Radius of TS-winds:50 Miles
Pressure:1005MB



Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
332. P451
MOUNT HOLLY NJ:

.CLIMATE...
TIME ALWAYS MARCHES ON AND ITS TIME ONCE AGAIN FOR OUR SEMI-ANNUAL
ANALOG FEST OF TRYING TO COMPARE THIS AUTUMN`S TEMPERATURES AND ENSO
STATE WITH SIMILAR INSTANCES IN THE PAST.

THIS UPCOMING WINTER WILL FEATURE EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A MODERATE TYPE EL NINO TO OCCUR.
THE LAST TWO WINTERS THAT HAD MODERATE EL NINOS WERE 2002-3 AND
2006-7, ALMOST POLAR OPPOSITE WINTERS IN SPITE OF BEING IN THE SAME
CATEGORY. THE 2002-3 EL NINO WAS MORE WEST BASED THAN 2006-7. THE
2002-3 EL NINO HAD A PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) THAT WAS
STRONGLY POSITIVE AND THERE WAS A COLD WATER POOL AROUND
NEWFOUNDLAND. THE 2006-7 EL NINO THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION WAS
MORE NEUTRAL, AND THERE WAS A WARM POOL AROUND NEWFOUNDLAND. SO FAR
THIS AUTUMN THE EL NINO DOES LOOK MORE WEST BASED THAN 2006-7, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION HAS RECENTLY BEEN WEAKLY POSITIVE AND
THERE WAS, BUT NOT AT THE PRESENT MOMENT, A NEWFOUNDLAND WARM POOL.

EARLIER THIS MONTH A WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR CAUSED A
RAPID WARMING OF THE TROPICAL WATERS WHICH BROUGHT THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES INTO THE LOW END OF THE STRONG EL NINO
CATEGORY. SINCE THEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE
STABILIZED. AS PER ITS NAME MOST EL NINOS PEAK IN DECEMBER BEFORE
WEAKENING THE REST OF THE WINTER.

OTHER ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS ALL AFFECT OUR WEATHER PATTERN.
THE STATE OF THE REST OF THE PACIFIC IS MEASURED BY THE PACIFIC
DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) IN THE LONGER TERM AND THE PACIFIC NORTH
AMERICA OSCILLATION (PNA) IN THE SHORTER TERM. ON OUR SIDE OF THE
COAST WE HAVE THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO). WE ARE IN THE
DECADAL CYCLE WHERE THE PDO IS AVERAGING NEGATIVE. THIS DOES NOT
FAVOR PROLONGED RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, A POSITIVE PNA. BUT
IN EL NINO WINTERS, THE PDO CAN AND HAS BECOME POSITIVE AS IT DID
DURING THE WINTERS OF 1982-3 AND 1997-8.

MEANWHILE THE STATE OF THE ATLANTIC AS MEASURED BY THE NAO ALSO
INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. A POSITIVE NAO GENERALLY FAVORS MILDER
WEATHER WHILE A NEGATIVE NAO FAVORS COLDER AND STORMIER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER IS MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN USUAL WITH MANY CONFLICTING
SIGNALS. THE NEWFOUNDLAND WATER POOL AVERAGED WARM DURING THE LATE
SPRING AND SUMMER. USUALLY THE WINTER FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS ONE OF
THE REASONS THAT THE UKMET OUTLOOK FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS FOR
A POSITIVE NAO. BUT, (TU AL) OTHER RESEARCH HAS SHOWN
CORRELATIONS BETWEEN LOWER THAN AVERAGE SURFACE PRESSURES SOUTH OF
ALASKA AND OCEANIC TEMPERATURE DIPOLES AROUND JAPAN IN THE AUTUMN
AND THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. THE SOUTH OF ALASKA SURFACE
PRESSURE AVERAGED LOWER THAN NORMAL AND THE JAPANESE OCEANIC
DIPOLE BOTH CORRELATE TO A NEGATIVE NAO. ON THE OTHER HAND CLIMO
RESEARCH HAS SHOWN ABOUT A 60/40 SWITCH BETWEEN THE NAO STATE IN
OCTOBER AND THE ENSUING WINTER. THE NAO AVERAGED NEGATIVE IN
OCTOBER. LASTLY THE NEWFOUNDLAND WATER POOL TURNED COOLER THAN
NORMAL AFTER HURRICANE BILL PASSED AND HAS NOT LOOKED BACK YET.

IF THE EL NINO REMAINS AS STRONG AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST TWO WEEKS,
IT CAN OVERWHELM THE NAO AND PDO AND REDUCE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER. BUT WITHOUT A CERTAIN STRONG EL NINO, THE FATE OF THIS
WINTER WILL BE INFLUENCED SOME BY THESE LESS PREDICTABLE
TELECONNECTIONS. HENCE THIS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD MODERATE EL NINO
WINTER FROM JUST A PDO AND NAO PERSPECTIVE AS OF TODAY LOOKS LIKE
A CROSS BETWEEN THE WINTERS OF 2002-3 AND 2006-7.

THIS FINALLY TAKES US TO THE LIST OF EL NINO AUTUMNS IN THE PAST IN
PHILADELPHIA. ALL OF THESE ANALOG YEARS HAD AN OCTOBER THAT WAS IN
THE AVERAGE OR NORMAL TERCILE OF ALL OCTOBERS DATING BACK TO 1872
AND A NOVEMBER THAT AVERAGED WARMER THAN NORMAL, IN THE HIGHEST
TERCILE.

HERE ARE THE BIG EIGHT OF WHAT OCCURRED WITH PAST EL NINOS THAT HAD
AN AVERAGE OCTOBER AND WARM NOVEMBER. THIS IS BASED ON THE 137 YEARS
OF RECORD IN PHILADELPHIA. THE NORMALS ARE THE CURRENT 1971-2000
NORMALS.


YEAR ENSUING ENSUING ENSUING AVG ENSUING ENSUING
DEC JAN FEB TEMP PCPN SNOW

1877-8 40.8 33.0 36.9 36.9 6.41 N/A
1902-3 33.7 32.6 36.5 34.3 14.44 16.8
1930-1 36.6 36.2 37.4 36.7 6.59 4.1
1963-4 27.9 33.0 31.8 30.9 8.51 32.9
1982-3 41.3 34.1 34.0 36.5 8.14 35.9
1994-5 41.9 38.2 31.5 37.2 7.62 9.8
2004-5 37.8 31.8 36.1 35.2 10.23 30.4
2006-7 42.7 38.2 28.0 36.3 7.23 13.4

AVERAGE 37.8 34.6 34.0 35.5 8.65 20.5
NORMAL 37.4 32.3 34.8 34.8 9.57 19.3

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THIS WINTER HAS THE PHILADELPHIA AREA
ON THE BORDER BETWEEN EQUAL CHANCES TO OUR NORTH AND A SLIGHTLY
GREATER CHANCE OF THE WINTER BEING COLDER THAN NORMAL TO OUR SOUTH.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF BEING EITHER WETTER
OR DRIER THAN NORMAL.

SEASONAL SNOWFALLS HAVE TREMENDOUS VARIABILITY IN EL NINO WINTERS
ONCE THE STRENGTH INCREASES TO MODERATE OR GREATER. THE STRONGER
SUBTROPICAL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE EL NINO NOT ONLY INCREASES THE
FREQUENCY OF STORMS, BUT ALSO BRINGS IN RELATIVELY WARMER AIR. WE
HAVE WITNESSED IT THIS AUTUMN WITH THREE STRONG NOREASTERS AND
OTHER WEAKER SYSTEMS. THE QUESTION ALWAYS BECOMES HOW COLD WILL IT
BE WHEN THESE STORMS ARRIVE. THE COLDEST AND SNOWIEST EL NINO
WINTERS OCCUR IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE EL NINO REMAINS WEAK. IN
PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1950 WEAK EL NINOS HAVE AVERAGED 28.1 INCHES OF
SNOW, MODERATE EL NINOS 22.9 INCHES OF SNOW AND STRONG EL NINOS
16.6 INCHES OF SNOW.

USING A MODERATE EL NINO AS THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER AND LOOKING BACK AT MODERATE EL NINOS SINCE 1950, WE FOUND
THAT MODERATE EL NINOS HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SEVEN OF THE FORTY-SEVEN
SIX INCH OR GREATER MEASURED SNOW EVENTS IN PHILADELPHIA. FROM AN
OVERALL PERSPECTIVE THEY HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR 15 PERCENT OF ALL THESE
EVENTS IN SPITE THAT MODERATE EL NINOS ONLY COMPRISE 10 PERCENT
OF ALL WINTERS SINCE 1950. THE LARGER SNOW EVENTS DURING MODERATE
EL NINO WINTERS FAVOR THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE AS MEASURED IN
PHILADELPHIA. SINCE 1950 THERE HAVE BEEN SEVEN EVENTS THAT HAVE
EQUALED OR EXCEEDED SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND ONE THAT HAS EQUALED OR
EXCEEDED TEN INCHES.

THE QUESTION WE WISHED WE KNEW THE ANSWER TO WAS WHETHER THIS
UPCOMING NINO WINTER WOULD BE A ONE HIT WONDER LIKE 1994-5 OR GO
PLATINUM LIKE 1982-3 OR 2004-5. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE IS
NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE TRENDS. WE HOPE EVERYBODY HAS A VERY
HAPPY AND HEALTHY THANKSGIVING AND UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND WINTER
SEASON. THE SALT HAS BEEN PURCHASED AND THE SNOW THROWER IS GASSED
AND READY TO GO.
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Tropical Depression 27W
Final JTWC Advisory
(at 4AM EST)10.0N 125.8E
Winds:25MPH
Movement:W at 8MPH
Pressure:1002MB



Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
Typhoon Nida
(at 4AM EST)9.2N 144.7E
Winds:75MPH
Movement:WNW at 6MPH
Avg. Radius of TS-winds:65 Miles
Very small tropical cyclone
Pressure:990MB



Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
TCFA for disturbance south of Vietnam has been reissued.

WTPN22 PGTW 241100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231051ZNOV09//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2N 107.6E TO 6.6N 103.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 240532Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 106.8E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5N
107.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 106.8E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT
ON THE WESTERN HALF OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A RECENT WINDSAT PASS SHOWED TWO REGIONS OF STRONG
CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS NEAR THE LLCC,
HOWEVER, WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WERE RAIN CONTAMINATED BUT
PREDOMINANTLY SHOWED 20 KNOTS. A 240626Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
INDICATED SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT, BUT DID NOT SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SUPPORTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LLCC. WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
251100Z.//
NNNN



Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
I wouldn't be surprised if there is a severe weather high risk area for Central and North Florida on Tuesday 12/1/09. On Tuesday strong SSE winds at the surface and a very powerful jetstream aloft spells trouble for Florida. The models have been persistant with this potential scenario for days now. This appears to be a life threating situation if this does unfold like the models are saying.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
LOOK at the 24-72 hour forecast map.....Colder air is coming just in time for the Holiday Weekend to the EAst and SE.





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325. NickO
Jeff,

For yr interest, we are having some very wet weather indeed in NW England and SW Scotland at the moment, breaking numerous records, and causing a lot of distress to people, businesses etc. With a milder Winter being forecast by the Met. Office, more of the same seems likely, as we usually get v. wet and windy conditions with the warmer than usual Autumn/Winter weather here; a lot of energy in the Atlantic, I guess.

Look fwd very much to your comments and assessment of the U.E.A. e-mail hacking controversy; also good comments on this on 'Real Climate' at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cold weather coming south... LOOK at the LOOP under the AOI for today....Wow great look at how a low pulls cold air down on the back side.

For thost of you that know her. Today is AubieGirls birthday....send her a little wish
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here is another view

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but it has been depicting
this for a few runs and continues to depict it and others models are on board as well we wait watch and aee nothing else we can do
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Quoting P451:
KOG: How much do you trust this potential "double-nor-easter" setup for the 1st week of December?

For, the small system we're seeing today affecting NJ was also blown up to be a big nor'easter by the models.

So which trend to trust? A new pattern with deep artic intrusion resulting in a couple of deep coastal lows? Or over-done models yielding to modest systems?

I'm inbetween until I actually see the new pattern take shape (beginning Friday) which is our first cool-down (to highs in the upper 40s).
like you said friday will be the day to see if its been overdone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
320. P451
KOG: How much do you trust this potential "double-nor-easter" setup for the 1st week of December?

For, the small system we're seeing today affecting NJ was also blown up to be a big nor'easter by the models.

So which trend to trust? A new pattern with deep artic intrusion resulting in a couple of deep coastal lows? Or over-done models yielding to modest systems?

I'm inbetween until I actually see the new pattern take shape (beginning Friday) which is our first cool-down (to highs in the upper 40s).
Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
319. P451
Good Morning. The remnants of Ida continue to push along into the East Atlantic. Around 32.5N and 42W.

RAMSDIS continues a floater on the system.

RAMSDIS Loop:



24Hour Loop:



The window of opportunity for any tropical re-development has passed. Yesterday morning the system looked very well organized but has since been hit with higher shear and will remain extra-tropical in nature as it brushes the Azores and possibly curves back ESE to take on the Canary Islands before possibly landfalling near Morocco. Keep in mind we first started watching an area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean on October 31st!

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202


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lucky to get a half let you know thanks
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316. IKE
From Tallahassee weather office...

"GLOBAL MODELS ARE SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM
TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...DURING MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. KEEP
IN MIND THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE FAR EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE DETAILS OF THE GUIDANCE ARE LIKELY
TO CHANGE BEFORE THEN. HOWEVER...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING A PATTERN THAT WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA. KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
RESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IN CASE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
BECOMES MORE LIKELY."

6Z GFS @ 150 hours....


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Quoting Patrap:
All those Long range still show a significant Dixie Snow Event round the 1st or 2nd,..interesting.

NOLA's earliest Snowfall recorded was a Year ago Dec 12th I believe.


December 10th
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314. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
sure could use some rain a month or so its been dry herre in e cen fl


Looks like a real good shot coming up for you in the next 1-2 days.
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313. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
9-3-2

Even with el nino in effect, still a near average season....


That's true.
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9-3-2

Even with el nino in effect, still a near average season....
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sure could use some rain a month or so its been dry herre in e cen fl
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310. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Or during a more active season. That could have meant we were still in the midst of potential storm development.



Looks like some interesting weather on the way for the eastern GOM and FL....

Have a great day, all.


Shear is 70-80 knots in the GOM. El Nino lives on.

The clock is running out on the 2009 season.....

162 hours...
15 minutes from being over...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


9-3-2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It looks like Central Florida is in store for a 2 to 4 inch rainfall later today and on Wednesday. On Wed. there will be a tornado potential for the Florida penisula as well. Bigger Severe weather threat on 12/1 and 12/2. Snow will fall on the back side of this next system. Maybe NOLA?
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Or during a more active season. That could have meant we were still in the midst of potential storm development.



Looks like some interesting weather on the way for the eastern GOM and FL....

Have a great day, all.
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307. IKE
The good news...if you can call it that...is that it didn't happen during the heart of the season.
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Troubling trend.....


000
NOUS71 KNES 232118
ADANES
SUBJECT: PRODUCT ANOMALY, DMSP DATA LOST, ISSUED: NOVEMBER 23,
**TOPIC: *DMSP F13 RECORDER PROBLEMS.*

_FINAL_ UPDATE: ESPC IS NOT RECEIVING DMSP F-13 SSMI DATA

DATE/TIME ISSUED*: NOVEMBER 23, 2009 2120 UTC
*

PRODUCT(S) OR DATA IMPACTED:* DMSP F13 SSMI
*

DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT: *NOVEMBER 19, 2009 0203 UTC ***

USER ACTIONS: *NONE.*

DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE: *SOCC ENGINEERING IMPLEMENTED CONTINGENCY
COMMANDING PROCEDURES IN AN ATTEMPT TO RECOVER THE RECORDER. ALL
ATTEMPTS TO COMMAND THE RECORDER BACK INTO PLAYBACK MODE WERE
UNSUCCESSFUL. THERE WAS NO MODULATION OF THE DOWNLINK CARRIER DETECTED
BY REMOTE SITES.
**BASED ON THESE RESULTS, PRIMARY RECORDER (PR #2 FOR F-13 IS OFFICIALLY IN-OPERABLE.
** THEREFORE, ALL DATA RECORDERS ON F-13
HAVE NOW FAILED.
**F-13 CAN NO LONGER ACCOMPLISH ITS PRIMARY
MISSION TO PROVIDE GLOBAL SMOOTH DATA.
**F-13 CAN STILL BE USED BY TACTICAL
USERS FOR REAL-TIME DATA.*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
305. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "URDUJA" has changed course and is now moving Eastward slowly.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
===============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Urduja located at 10.1ºN 125.6ºE or kms north of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Warning Signal #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Visayas Region
-------------
1.Bohol
2.Leyte Provinces
3.Camotes Island
4.Biliran
5.Eastern Samar
6.Western Samar

Mindanao Region
-------------
1.Surigao Provinces
2.Agusan del Norte
3.Dinagat Island
4.Siargao Island
5.Camiguin

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes in areas under PSWS # 1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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Good morning, everybody.

Commenting on the above average temps in S FL and the area, it's been 3-4 degrees warmer than average here so far this month. I will say it felt a heck of a lot hotter than 84 degrees yesterday afternoon in Nassau. Normally we are closer to 80 than 85 by the time Thanksgiving week rolls around.

Hopefully we get some moderation of temperatures by the weekend. I'm kinda tired of being hot now.... lol

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303. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL STORM NIDA (T0922)
15:00 PM JST November 24 2009
===========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nida (990 hPa) located at 8.8N 145.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knot with gusts of 65 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-southwest slowly

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southern quardrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 11.0N 142.5E - 60 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 13.8N 140.5E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 16.1N 139.1E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
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302. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SEVEN
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER BONGANI (05-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion November 24 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Bongani (1003 hPa) located at 9.5S 51.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disutrbance is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 10.5S 51.2E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 10.7S 50.3E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 11.3S 47.6E - 35 kts (Tempéte Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 12.9S 44.9E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
The system has disrupted within the last night, actually dry air has entered in the circulation in the west northwest sector. As the microwave imagery depicts it (SSMIS 89 GHZ color at 0358z), and with a south-easterly wind shear. According to the Numerical Weather Prediction Models, the dry air influence should decrease within the next 24 hours. During the next 3 days, low level convergence is not expected to increase, Despite a good upper levels divergence and a upper level outflow developing southward within the next 48 hours, re-intensification is expected to be limited by the lower levels. The system is expected to track west-southwest, its steering flow is a mid tropospheric ridge in its southeast.

ALL INTEREST IN THE FAHQUAR ARCHIPELAGO, NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE ISLAND SHOULD STILL CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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301. xcool
Grothar ;0
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Quoting xcool:
Grothar take care :)


Nite xcool. Stay well.
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299. xcool
tornadodude? yeah
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It was snowing outside in this scene:



Didn't know it snowed that much in England in those days. I guess global warming has modified their climate. Great actor. No one ever did a better job than he.
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Quoting xcool:
WHAT HAPPEN TO MATT ?


You mean tornadodude? He probably became discouraged with all the nasty remarks. A lot of people do not blog as before. It is discouraging when one is under a constant barrage. Hope he returns.
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296. xcool
Grothar take care :)
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It is getting late gentlemen, and I must be going. It has been a pleasure. You all stay well and thank you again. I would imagine the debates shall beging again tomorrow. Let us see what misinformation shall be disseminated next. It is interesting to see how little people really know. Have a good day.
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It was snowing outside in this scene:

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293. xcool
WHAT HAPPEN TO MATT ?
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xcool...I do respect you and your love for weather. Just post your own thoughts and when you post others thoughts, just say so.
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Quoting xcool:
Grothar .REALLY, THANKS.I JUSTING TRY HELP ALOT .ILOVE WEATHER .!


No apology necessary. We all do it. You think I make up all those corny quotes. I only give credit to the well-known ones and hope people think I do the others. Hey, when I post the pictures from the Atlantic you think I painted it?? Don't sweat it. You are much like your handle; a cool guy. Let it rest.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses? 'I wish to be left alone,' said Scrooge. 'Since you ask me what I wish, gentlemen, that is my answer. I don't make merry myself at Christmas and I can't afford to make idle people merry. I help to support the establishments I have mentioned-they cost enough; and those who are badly off must go there.'


Ha ha. From memory, too!

"There are some upon this earth of yours," returned the Spirit, "who lay claim to know us, and who do their deeds of passion, pride, ill-will, hatred, envy, bigotry, and selfishness in our name, who are as strange to us and all out kith and kin, as if they had never lived. Remember that, and charge their doings on themselves, not us."
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289. xcool
GeoffreyWPB
SORRY
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288. xcool
Grothar .REALLY, THANKS.I JUSTING TRY HELP ALOT .ILOVE WEATHER .!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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