Is more CO2 beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?
We should emit as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as possible and oppose efforts to regulate CO2 emissions, because more CO2 is good for the Earth. That's the take-home message of an audacious TV ad that was run this fall by the advocacy group, CO2isgreen.com. "Higher CO2 levels than we have today would help the Earth's ecosystems, and support more plant and animal life", the ad proclaims.
It's the brainchild of H. Leighton Steward, a retired oil industry executive, and Corbin J. Robertson, Jr., chief executive and leading shareholder in Natural Resource Partners, a Houston-based owner of coal resources that lets other companies mine, in return for royalties. According to an article in the Washington Post, the ad ran this fall in New Mexico and Montana, which have key Congressmen that CO2isgreen.com hopes to sway. The ads form part of a major PR campaign being waged by the fossil fuel industry and its allies in advance of the crucial U.N. Climate Change Conference, which will be held December 7 - 18 in Copenhagen, Denmark. At that meeting, the leaders of the world will gather to negotiate an agreement to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The new agreement will be the world's road map for dealing with climate change, and the stakes are huge.
Figure 1. Screen shot of the new ad by the advocacy group CO2isgreen.com.
Let's consider the scientific accuracy of the ad's three main points:
1) "Congress is considering a law that would classify CO2 as pollution. This will cost us jobs".
Well, this is a reasonable concern. Fossil fuels represent the foundation upon which modern civilization is built. The marvelous inventions of civilized life that have brought increased health, lifespan, and prosperity to billions of people are largely due to the use of fossil fuels. Regulating CO2 and moving to non-fossil fuel based energy sources won't be cheap or easy, and there is a potential for significant economic harm if our politicians bungle the job. The fossil fuel industry employs millions of people, and some of these jobs will no doubt be lost as new "green" energy sources are developed. However, the longer-term economic benefits of moving to a less fossil fuel-intensive economy, plus the jobs created as a result, must be weighed against the shorter term economic disruption that may occur.
2) "There is no scientific evidence that CO2 is a pollutant".
Webster's dictionary defines a pollutant as "man-made waste that contaminates an environment". Webster's defines "contaminate" as "to make inferior or impure". CO2 is man-made waste, and there is scientific evidence that added CO2 can make our atmosphere "inferior" to its present state, or else the EPA would not be considering regulations. As just one example, when CO2 is dissolved in the oceans, the water grows more acidic. Corals and other creatures that build shells out of calcium carbonate cannot form their shells if the acidity passes a critical level--their shells will dissolve. Thus, for these organisms, CO2 is definitely a pollutant. Several shell-building planktonic organisms, such as coccolithophorids, pteropods, and foraminifera, form an important basis of the food chain in cold ocean waters, and the continued increase in CO2 emissions have many scientists very concerned about a collapse of the oceanic food chain in these regions in coming decades. Presumably, CO2isgreen.com is taking the very narrow view that a pollutant is something that harms human health when breathed. The more important question is, how does CO2 emitted by fossil fuel generation, plus all the effects that come with it, impact human health and the health of Earth's ecosystems?
3) "Higher CO2 levels than we have today would help the Earth's ecosystems, and support more plant and animal life".
It is true that many plants grow faster under enhanced CO2--the so-called "CO2 fertilization effect". Just ask your neighborhood commercial indoor marijuana grower, who probably grows his or her plants in an enhanced CO2 environment. The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report found that crop yields under unstressed conditions increased by 0 - 25% for a doubling of CO2, and that growth of young tree stands also increased. However, the IPCC noted that ground level ozone pollution will limit the CO2 fertilization effect. Ozone pollution is caused by emissions from fossil fuel burning, and will increase in a warmer world since the chemical reactions that create ozone act more efficiently at higher temperatures. Furthermore, the higher temperatures, increased drought, and increased insect pests that added CO2 is likely to bring to the atmosphere via greenhouse effect warming will induce major stresses to plants that will counteract the CO2 fertilization effect. A 2009 paper by Battisti and Naylor in Science titled, "Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat", reported that the 2003 heat wave in Europe--featuring temperatures predicted to be the norm by the end of the century--reduced harvests of fruits and grains by 21 - 36%. The 2007 IPCC report noted, "even slight warming decreases yields in seasonally and low latitude regions". Most of the world's population at risk of starvation live in such regions (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa).
To get more CO2 in the air, we have to mine, transport, and burn fossil fuels, and potentially fight wars to protect them. This creates a host of effects highly detrimental to people and ecosystems:
1) Particle pollution, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides emitted as a result of burning coal and operating motor vehicles cause over $118 billion in health and other damages per year in the U.S., according to a Congressionally-ordered National Academy of Sciences study released last month. The study said this was a "substantial underestimate", as it did not consider climate change-related costs, or pollution emissions from a wide variety of other sources.
2) Oil and natural gas drilling and oil spills have had catastrophic effects on many ecosystems over the past century, and will continue to do so. Coal mining via mountaintop removal has laid waste to vast regions of the Appalachians, obliterating over 700 miles of rivers and streams. Failures of slurry ponds dams such as the one that failed in December 2008 in Tennessee have contaminated numerous ecosystems, and killed hundreds (the Buffalo Creek, WV dam failure of 1972 killed 125, and a 1966 slurry pond dam failure in Aberfan, Wales killed 144, including 126 schoolchildren). The Physicians for Social Responsibility put out a report this week called Coal's Assault on Human Health that details many more examples of how coal is bad for ecosystems and human health.
3) Coal mining accidents killed 65 miners in the U.S. in 2006, and kill tens of thousands of miners worldwide each year (China has averaged 6,000 deaths per year this decade). Tens of thousands of miners contract black lung disease each year, as well.
The Greening of Planet Earth
Fossil fuel industry-funded Public Relations campaigns focusing on the benefits of CO2 for life on Earth are nothing new. In 2006, I blogged about a TV ad run by the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) that proclaimed, "as for carbon dioxide, it isn't smog or smoke, it's what we breathe out and plants breathe in. Carbon dioxide: they call it pollution, we call it life.". In 1991, coal giant Western Fuels founded an organization called "The Greening Earth Society" which spent $250,000 to produce the video, "The Greening of Planet Earth" (available on Youtube). The 30-minute movie features scientists who describe in glowing terms the tremendous increases in plant growth that will occur due to increased CO2. Set to appropriately stirring music, the movie concludes: "The future also holds great promise. And contributing to this promise is the positive effect that carbon dioxide has upon our world. Crop plants will continue to grow more productively, contributing to ever-greater supplies of food. Forests will extend their ranges. Grasses will grow where none grow now. And great tracts of barren land we be reclaimed. In fact, it is not inconceivable that the vitality of our biosphere could rise by a full order of magnitude over the next few centuries, to a new, greening Planet Earth". According to Boston Globe investigative reporter Ross Gelbspan in his book The Heat is On, the movie was shown extensively in Washington D.C. and in the capitals of OPEC nations, and was the favorite movie of President George H.W. Bush's chief of staff, John Sununu. It's interesting to note that The Greening Earth Society shares the same mailing address and fax number as the Americans for Balanced Energy Choices (ABEC), a fossil fuel industry front group that was given $35 million to fight climate change regulation in 2008. According to the creators of desmogblog.com, a website dedicated to "Clearing the PR Pollution that Clouds Climate Science", that money, plus an extra $5 million, was shuffled to a new industry front group called the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity (ACCCE), and used to help fund the "Clean Coal" TV ads that dominated the airwaves during the November 2008 election. The details are in the excellent new book, Climate Cover-up, written by desmogblog.com co-founder James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore.
Commentary
The CO2isgreen.com ad is beautifully produced, with multiple windows depicting flowing pictures of flowers blooming, animals grazing, crops growing, and the sun shining over these grand scenes of nature's bounty, all set to the soothing sound track of some slick New Age music. Who wouldn't want to live in such a world? Unfortunately, this is a fantasy world created by fossil fuel industry Public Relations people, and we live in the real world where physics and science rule. Oil is not clean, coal is worse, and the extraction, transportation, and burning of fossil fuels that accompany the enhanced-CO2 world we live in are already causing massive environmental destruction. Add in the immense environmental damage likely to occur as a result of the coming climate change storm, and the fantasy that more CO2 will be good for the world dissolves into a nightmare for a huge proportion of Earth's ecosystems--and the people who depend upon them for life.
Hacked emails purport to show climate scientists' cover-up
A hacker broke into an email server at the Climate Research Unit of the UK's University of East Anglia this week and posted ten years worth of private email exchanges between leading scientists who've published research linking humans to climate change. Realclimate.org has an interesting response to the debacle, saying the emails are a "presumably careful selection of (possibly edited?) correspondence dating back to 1996 and as recently as Nov 12)". They show one example of a "cherry-picked" distortion of one of the emails that global warming contrarians are using to try to discredit the science of climate change, and successfully refute the distortion, in my mind. The realclimate groups adds:
"More interesting is what is not contained in the emails. There is no evidence of any worldwide conspiracy, no mention of George Soros nefariously funding climate research, no grand plan to "get rid of the Medieval Warm Period", no admission that global warming is a hoax, no evidence of the falsifying of data, and no "marching orders" from our socialist/communist/vegetarian overlords. But if cherry-picked out-of-context phrases from stolen personal emails is the only response to the weight of the scientific evidence for the human influence on climate change, then there probably isn't much to it".
There's not a person alive who would not look bad if their private emails made public, taken out of context, and subjected to attack. The reputations of all the scientists involved will suffer, as will understanding of the science of climate change. Global warming contrarians have not been able to effectively dispute the reality of human-caused climate change by publishing peer-reviewed scientific articles, so they've done what any effective (and unethical) politician would do--resort to personal attacks of dubious merit on their opponents, in an attempt to muddy the waters and distract people from the facts. That's politics, and it's not too surprising to see this sort of ugly episode in a game where the stakes are so high.
None of the so-called "smoking gun" emails the contrarians are excited about change what I pointed out in in my previous post: Arctic sea ice was at a new record low this month, human-emitted greenhouse gases are largely to blame, and the polar ice cap is expected to melt by 2030, throwing the climate into a dangerous new unstable mode.
I'll have a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Was this a JOKE?
This too could have much to do with the Positive PNA that Masters discussed earlier today. Here's some info if lost. Because it's suddenly switched on doesn't mean it won't undo. But it's a huge anomaly & somewhat stuck recently. Three years & the large % change is worth noting.
Also note that this gulf storm dies out rather than becoming a noreaster.
Extreme canoeist dies in a flooded stream in Wales.
Dunes badly eroded on Outer Banks from Ex-Ida. No funds coming, sea oats & let nature rebuild.
Actually, it depends on whether the surface pinching your finger is flat or pointed. If it is flat, 0.46mm aint nothing. Put a point on it and now that would hurt.
Its about the surface area of the device doing the pinching.
Just kidding..:-)
easily should be stronger than 2002 as well as the other 2 el ninos since 1998. I'll wait atleast a few weeks to compare to 1998. 2010 should be notably hot.
No.
You didn't.
(snicker, snicker)
Luv ya, Skye!
A little dated, but will not have changed much in 20 days...
Nov 1, 2009:
Oct 30, 1997:
Dec 2, 2002:
I wouldn't write home to mom just yet.
94W's got a long way to go till it affects the Philippines. And it's got to get through a high that's blocking its path, that's also keeping 93W stationary which is just east of the Philippines.
We will have to see if it falls or continues to build. If it does not fall off it may get strong but not to 97 level.
Yeah, as i said. there is a great big high blocking its way.
I think it might be just a classic, somewhat textbook moderate Nino, probably not building all that much more, and back to fully neutral by next June.
Nothingmore.
I haven't heard any lightning at all, much less in the last 20 minutes of sitting on my porch...
Yet this plot shows a bunch of it just a little to my north.
What does it mean when the clouds know where the Mason-Dixon line is?
Ok, really, Union and Confederate...
Loop
IR Ch,CONUS
Domestic Terrorist v. Manufactured Doubter
Experimental GOES Sounder Derived Products
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 6.4N 148.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.4N 148.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 6.8N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 7.3N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 7.7N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.5N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 10.2N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.5N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.0N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 6.5N 148.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK ISLAND HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 211051Z NOV 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21
PGTW 211100). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
NNNN
------
I will send you the time series you need in a minute for the Central
west Greenland Stack...
And some other bits and pieces,,, The NGRIP record has the trend in it
that is no doubt closer to the truth for the fixed elevation temperature
history. But even there one could need a correction for elevation
change. The elevation corrected south GRIP Holocene has a very strong
negative delta trend in it and I expect there should be some correction
done to the north GRIP record too,, eventually I think they should all
come out looking like our records from Northern Canada. Now at least
ice core records have some low frequencies to correct... not like your
bloody trees that can not remember one century to the next,,,(alderheimers )
Walgett Airport, NSW, 41.5°C (106.7°F)
My place in Sydney, 40.6°C(105.1°F).
Weather tomorrow will be 21°C(69°F)
Atlantic hurricane season appears over -- to some
Some meteorologists say it's unlikely another storm will build because of El Niño. But the National Hurricane Center says let's wait.
By Ken Kaye
November 22, 2009
Reporting from Fort Lauderdale, Fla. - The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is essentially over, even though it does not officially end until Nov. 30.
So says William Gray, Colorado State University hurricane forecaster.
Because El Niño has created strong wind shear over the tropics, "the odds of a storm are very, very small from this point on," said Gray, who closed the book on the 2009 season Thursday.
However, according to the National Hurricane Center in Florida, it's possible that the wind shear could relax over the coming weeks, and the waters in the Caribbean are still warm enough to support storm formation.
"The hurricane season goes until Nov. 30. Each day we get closer to that, it looks better and better that we won't see any more tropical activity," said center spokesman Dennis Feltgen. "But don't raid the hurricane kit yet."
Feltgen said that the hurricane season looked like it was over two weeks ago. But then Ida formed in the western Caribbean. And, he said, it wouldn't be unusual for a storm to develop in December.
"Tropical cyclones have been recorded in every month outside of the standard June-through-November period," he said.
But Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist of the website Weather Underground, said that since 1950, in years that El Niño has emerged only three named storms have developed in the Atlantic after Nov. 15.
El Niño is created by a warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean. It generates wind shear -- a change in wind speed or direction -- and instability in the atmosphere, which acts to disrupt storms before they can build and strengthen.
If the season has, in fact, shut down, it would be considered a breeze.
In all, there were only nine named storms, including three hurricanes. Two struck the U.S. coastline this year -- Tropical Storm Claudette, which wobbled ashore on the Florida Panhandle in mid-August, and Tropical Storm Ida, which hit Alabama on Nov. 10 after initially strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
Only hurricanes Bill and Fred had winds greater than 110 mph.
The average season sees 11 named storms, including six hurricanes, two intense.
"It was a very inactive season," Gray said.
kkaye@sun-sentinel.com
Copyright © 2009, The Los Angeles Times
SCORCHING temperatures, bone-dry bush, strong winds and severe lightning storms have combined to create NSW's worst bushfire threat in 100 years.
The mercury reached 41.2C at Sydney Airport at 2pm, according to Weatherzone, with 40.1C recorded at Penrith, and 40.4C at Bankstown Airport.
The volatile cocktail of conditions has forced authorities to issue "catastrophic'' fire warnings and impose a total fire ban across most of the State.
Rural properties in central NSW are being threatened by a new bushfire believed to have been started by fallen powerlines, the Rural Fire Service said today.
An emergency warning has been issued to residents of Tara Stock Road at Gunnedah where a fire started on Sunday morning and is burning in an easterly direction.
"We are seeing properties in that area being impacted by fires,'' a RFS said.
"News of the fire has just come through, it seems to have started this morning.
Premier Nathan Rees said unprecedented conditions were expected today.
"These are conditions that haven't been seen for 100 years. It has never been this hot, dry or windy in November ever before,'' Premier Nathan Rees said.
As Sydney awaits a high of 41C today, the message from authorities is clear: this is only the beginning and dangerous conditions will be be a threat throughout summer.
At least 80 fires are now burning throughout NSW, including in the Blue Mountains, the Hawkesbury region and the north.
Late yesterday, the Rural Fire Service said homes near the NSW central west towns of Rylstone and Kandos were being threatened by a fire fanned by high winds.
As many as 1100 firefighters and 380 tankers worked around the clock to contain blazes, with thousands more on standby.
So far, no property or lives have been lost.
Dry lightning storms on Fri-day night and 45km/h winds put most of NSW under threat and the RFS on high alert.
Fire officials fear more fires may break out today as conditions worsen.
RFS Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said anything was possible because of the conditions. He said although most of the State's safety was "of great concern'', the far west and upper and lower central plains had been classified as catastrophic, meaning their fire rating was "off the charts'' - above 100.
Deniliquin's fire index reached a record 190 yesterday.
Highly populated towns in the catastrophic zone include Dubbo, Broken Hill and Forbes, which were hoping for relief from a cool change later today.
"We don't know where the next fire is going to start and, clearly, we will be monitoring the existing fires, in light of these elevating weather conditions,'' Mr Fitzsimmons said yesterday.
"There is every likelihood a bushfire-prone area could be susceptible to fire tomorrow, which is why we're calling on vigilance, common sense and care.
"All areas that are subject to these adverse fire conditions are areas of concern.''
Mr Fitzsimmons described the current fire season as ``one of the most difficult we've seen'', based on early indications.
Bureau of Meteorology forecasting chief Rob Webb said the late-spring heatwave was just the beginning, with unusually high summer heat possible for NSW in January and February.
"Tomorrow, we expect temperatures to rise back to 41C in Sydney, and much of north-eastern NSW will see temperatures towards the mid-40s.
"Ahead of a strong front approaching, we will see wind speeds get up to 40km/h. This will put pressure on fires already started by lightning strikes.''
sheri
KOTG
2009 ATLANTIC STORM NAMES
ANA THE FIRST AT 5 AM OF AUG 15
BILL THE SECOND AUG 15 A MAJOR THE EVENING OF 18 C4
CLAUDETTE THE BIG LITTLE SURPRISE TS AUG 16 AT 5AM NE GOM
DANNY T.S. DANNY ON THE MORN OF AUG 26
ERIKA ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN T.S. FORMS SEPT 1
FRED FORMS ON 7 SEPT C3 ON THE 9TH
GRACE TS GRACE MOST NE
HENRI TS NOTHING MORE
IDA TS FORMS NOV4 CAT2 ON NOV 8 ONLY GOM CANE
Magicchaos' Western Pacific Public Advisory
Tropical Depression Twenty-Six (26W) Advisory Number 1
1000 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
...Tropical Depression forms over Chuuk State...
AT 1000 PM EST...0300Z...The center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Six was located near latitude 6.5 degrees north and longitude 148.8 degrees east. This is about 215 miles west-northwest of Chuuk Island.
Twenty-Six is moving toward the northeast at 3 MPH...5 KM/HR. Twenty-Six is expected to curve to the northwest within the next 24 hours and continue in that general motion throughout the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 MPH...50 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected for the next few days and Twenty-Six could become a tropical storm by Sunday night.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 MB...29.65 inches.
...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...6.5N 148.8E
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 3 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT. LOCATION, WINDS, MOVEMENT, AND FORECAST ARE FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. PRESSURE WAS FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGY AGENCY. THIS WAS NOT INTENDED TO BE OFFICIAL AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH.
A bushfire emergency warning has been issued for residents in three townships in central-west New South Wales.
The blaze has burned out more than 1,200 hectares of bush and is heading towards Rylstone, Kandos and Clandulla.
Nearly 170 firefighters are working on the blaze with the support of six helicopters and four planes.
An emergency warning has also been issued for residents along Kangaroobie road at Orange, due to a grass fire.
Stuart O'Keefe of the Rural Fire Service says there is now a real threat to properties in the Rylstone/Kandos area and residents need to activate their survival plans.
The RFS says about 1,000 firefighters are battling more than 100 blazes across the state as temperatures head towards the 40-degree mark.
But the Rylstone and Kandos blazes remain the biggest concern, after a fire threatening rural properties at Gunnedah in the state's north was brought under control.
Current conditions suggest the fire could take two to three hours to reach Rylstone and Kandos.
"The fire weather that we're experiencing now puts us into a defensive mode, so we're setting up to protect individual properties and relocate to deal with any threat at that particular time," he said.
He says the RFS is expecting erratic fire behaviour this afternoon.
"High temperatures, low humidity and strong winds - what we've been saying for the last 24 hours, the potential for the fire to breach the containment lines, has happened.
"Conditions out there are very difficult for all our firefighters at the moment."
The Cudgewong road has been closed due to this fire.
Earlier, the Rylstone Hospital was evacuated as a precaution.
The ambulance service says it has moved nearly all of the 19 patients to Gulgong, Mudgee and Bathurst hospitals.
The weather bureau has issued a severe weather warning for locally damaging winds in the Southern Tablelands, Central Tablelands and South-West Slopes and Plains.
Craig Ronan, Central West controller for the SES, says the windy conditions are having an effect on bushfires, but are also bringing down trees and damaging homes in the Bathurst and Lithgow areas.
He is expecting severe winds to have an impact when they hit this afternoon, and says anyone affected should call the SES on 132 500.
John Parnaby, incident controller at the Cudgegong fire control centre near Kandos and Rylstone, says the forecast is for winds of 45-65 kilometres an hour, and firefighters are reporting winds of around 35 kilometres an hour currently.
Mr Parnaby says people in the Kandos/Rylstone area should consider going away for the day.
"If people's properties are not prepared for the attack of fire or ember and people are not psychologically ready or physically capable to go through a situation where fire may impact upon their property, they really should be leaving to find a safer place essentially," he said.
"Now would be the right time to go to a neighbouring town - Lithgow, Mudgee, something like that. At this point in time there are no closed roads."
Residents of Glen Davis, south-east of Rylstone and Kandos, are being warned about a fire that has the potential to spot over the Mount Iris escarpment into the town.
Kandos resident Bonnie Farrell says the strong winds are causing fear in the community.
"People are scared and I think the horrific winds at the moment make people even more on edge," she said.
She has the car packed and is ready to leave if necessary.
"The most important things are us and our pets - material things can be replaced over time ... that's why we've made the decision," she said.
"I've been a bush girl all my life ... this is the first time I've felt threatened as an adult, where I'm the one who had to make the decisions."
Rylstone shire farmer David Lee says he has decided to stay to protect his animals.
"I've got a few fields that have nothing on them, nothing to burn," he said.
"I'm confident enough to defend. If I have to I've got dams, I'll get a piece of poly pipe and off I'll go."
He says he can see more smoke coming from the east.
"I can see Newcastle, the Wollemi [National Park], the smoke's getting more and more. It's coming and hopefully that won't catch up with the fire in the Glen Davis [area] because that means the whole of Wollemi and Gardens of Stone [National Park], it'll go."
Meanwhile, firefighters have gained the upper hand on a blaze that threatened properties on the outskirts of Gunnedah.
An emergency warning was issued for people on Stock Road on the outskirts of Gunnedah. But the Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons says crews have the blaze under control.
"They're just mopping it up so we're confident it will be okay," he said.
Mr Fitzsimmons says conditions across the state are expected to deteriorate later today.
"Come the early afternoon, mid-afternoon period is generally where temperatures are at their hottest the humidity's at its lowest," he said.
- ABC
Sure hope the lower temps help the firefighters to control the fires. What an enormous temperature difference.
well, i thought it was funny...
Actually, it is a clever play on words.
CatastropheAdjuster -- Careful there w/the flooded roads.
General comment -- there have been some particularly nasty trolls in and out the last couple days; I'm thinking some folks might be staying away for a bit.
Also, I haven't seen an update on Floodman for awhile. Hope he's still recovering nicely. I've already checked Mrs. Flood's blog
(LongStrangeTrip).
This Saturday Night Live is stupid so far.
Good night, all.
Hehehe.
I wasn't here, beell, but I know your pain...
LOL
A FIRE burning west of the central west townships of Rylstone, Kandos and Clandulla has broken containment lines, putting some properties under threat.
An emergency warning has been declared for the central western townships after containment lines were breached at 1pm (AEDT) today.
The fire, which has burnt through 1260 hectares of bushland west of the townships, is now bearing down on some rural properties.
"The fire started on the northern side of Windamere Dam and has crossed the dam," the Rural Fire Service (RFS) said.
"The fire is threatening rural properties between Lake Windamere and the towns of Rylstone, Kandos and Clandulla."
"The fire is currently impacting properties along Pinnacle Road and White Rocks Road, to the west of Rylstone, where fire fighting crews are providing property protection."
RFS spokesman Anthony Clark said the fire would remain a threat well into this afternoon because of scorching temperatures and gusty 70km winds.
Residents have been told to follow their Bush Fire Survival Plan and if they have any doubts about their ability to protect their property, to leave early.
11.12.09
Satellite image showing El Nino pumping up This image was created with data collected by the U.S./European satellite during a 10-day period centered on November 1, 2009. It shows a red and white area in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that is about 10 to 18 centimeters (4 to 7 inches) above normal. Image credit: NASA/JPL Ocean Surface Topography Team
El Nino is experiencing a late-fall resurgence. Recent sea-level height data from the NASA/European Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 oceanography satellite show that a large-scale, sustained weakening of trade winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during October has triggered a strong, eastward-moving wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, this warm wave appears as the large area of higher-than-normal sea surface heights (warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) between 170 degrees east and 100 degrees west longitude. A series of similar, weaker events that began in June 2009 initially triggered and has sustained the present El Nino condition.
This image was created with data collected by the U.S./European satellite during a 10-day period centered on November 1, 2009. It shows a red and white area in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that is about 10 to 18 centimeters (4 to 7 inches) above normal. These regions contrast with the western equatorial Pacific, where lower-than-normal sea levels (blue and purple areas) are between 8 to 15 centimeters (3 and 6 inches) below normal. Along the equator, the red and white colors depict areas where sea surface temperatures are more than one to two degrees Celsius above normal (two to four degrees Fahrenheit).
"In the American west, where we are struggling under serious drought conditions, this late-fall charge by El Nino is a pleasant surprise, upping the odds for much-needed rain and an above-normal winter snowpack," said JPL oceanographer Bill Patzert.
For more information on NASA's ocean surface topography missions, see http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/; or to view the latest Jason data, see http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/jason1-quick-look/.
All due respect but,
1. CO2 is green is a waste product of animal life as well as combustion both part of nature.
2. CO2 do support plant life. High ammounts of CO2 wold be like us having an athmosphere of aviation quality oxygen but for plants. therefore if there are high ammounts of CO2 this would be beneficial for plant life and of course if beneficial for them then it would be beneficial for us as well.
3. I truly believe there are fluctuations in the climate. We have periods of warm weather and periods of cold weather. I do not agree it is caused by humans, I believe it is caused by nature itself. That we are contributing to the carbon input yes about 1 percent of the total input the rest is caused by nature. The sun is also a big factor in warming and cooling trends in this planet. The sun has been quiet for quite some time and we have been noticing cooling in the planet. This cooling will surely change eventually once the sun becomes more ative in regards to sun spots. Now I do respect your opinion, but do not subscribe to it, and I felt like I had to give an opposing view so members here look for themselves and find out if all this human made global warmin is a hoax created to make some rich.
This image was created with data acquired by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument (AIRS) on NASA's Aqua satellite during July 2009. The image shows large-scale patterns of carbon dioxide concentrations that are transported around Earth by the general circulation of the atmosphere. Dark blue corresponds to a concentration of 382 parts per million and dark red corresponds to a concentration of almost 390 parts per million.
The northern hemisphere mid-latitude jet stream effectively sets the northern limit of enhanced carbon dioxide. A belt of enhanced carbon dioxide girdles the globe in the southern hemisphere, following the zonal flow of the southern hemisphere mid-latitude jet stream. This belt of carbon dioxide is fed by biogenesis activity in South America (carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere through the respiration and decomposition of vegetation), forest fires in both South America and Central Africa, and clusters of gasification plants in South Africa and power generation plants in south eastern Australia.
The AIRS instrument flies on NASA's Aqua satellite and is managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, under contract to NASA. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.
Guam and Saipan better watch out.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
510 AM CHST SUN NOV 22 2009
GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-220700-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
510 AM CHST SUN NOV 22 2009
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM NEAR 6N148E CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND MAY
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER...BASED ON SATELLITE DATA...ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 MPH.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS TOWARD THE MARIANAS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE
CENTER NEAR GUAM DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
DISTURBANCE. TROPICAL DISTURBANCES CAN INTENSIFY QUICKLY THIS TIME
OF YEAR...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED AS EARLY AS
MONDAY.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS INFORMATION AS NEEDED
BASED ON FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number ONE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 05-20092010
10:00 AM Réunion November 22 2009
=========================================
At 6:00 PM, Tropical Disturbance 05R (1006 hPa) located at 9.1S 56.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 30 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west-northeast at 10 knots
RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 08.8S 55.0E - 25 kts (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 08.9S 53.7E - 30 kts (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 09.5S 51.3E - 45 kts (Tempéte Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 10.1S 49.4E - 60 kts (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
Additional Information
========================
Quikscat Date of the last night shows clearly an improving low level circulation center due to the development of deep convection over the center during the night, but pression remains high as environmental pression remains high to. The system is expected to develop progressively due to a favorable environment, good low level inflow, over warm sea surface temperature, and good upper level outflow. It is expected to track globally westwards.
Viewing: 501 - 551
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