The Atlantic hurricane season is effectively over; heavy rains in the Northwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on November 16, 2009

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Only two weeks remain in the Atlantic hurricane season, but the hurricane season of 2009 is effectively over. While the Western Caribbean is still warm enough to support development of a hurricane--as it is year-round--wind shear over the entire North Atlantic has risen to levels prohibitively high for tropical storm formation to occur. Wind shear is forecast to remain very high for at least the next ten days (Figure 1). This is a fairly typical occurrence in the Atlantic for this time of year, though it usually occurs sooner in El Niño years. As you probably know, El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific commonly create high levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. This year was no exception, though the shear created by El Niño was not as strong as we've seen in other recent El Niño years. Wind shear was uncharacteristically low in the first half of November, allowing Hurricane Ida to form. Within the past ten days, though, El Niño conditions over the Eastern Pacific have intensified from moderate to strong, and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic has increased significantly, making it unlikely any significant tropical cyclones that affect land will occur the remainder of this hurricane season. Formation of a subtropical storm over the open Atlantic far from land is still a possibility, but such a storm would only be a concern to shipping.


Figure 1. Wind shear forecast for the Atlantic for ten days from now made by last night's 00Z run of the GFS model. The GFS model is forecasting very high wind shear over the entire North Atlantic over the next ten days.

Late season tropical storms in El Niño years
In the 17 hurricane seasons since 1950 where an El Niño event has been present, only three of those years featured named storms that formed after November 15. Tropical Storm Otto formed on November 29, 2004, from the remains of an extratropical storm that got cut off from the jet stream over the middle Atlantic. Otto meandered for a few days far from land before dissipating. Category 1 Hurricane Frances formed on November 19, 1986 in the open Atlantic south of Bermuda, and died after three days without affecting land. Category 1 Hurricane Martha formed on November 21, 1969 in the extreme southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Panama. Martha weakened to a tropical storm before making landfall in Panama, and was the only named storm in the Atlantic ever to make landfall in Panama.

Typhoon season not over yet
Note that typhoon season in the Western Pacific is not over--we commonly get typhoons well into December. In fact, the ECMWF model is predicting formation of yet another typhoon east of the Philippines, sometime late this week or early next week. Tropical cyclone season is also not over in the Bay of Bengal near India, where some models are predicting an enhanced chance of a tropical storm forming late this week. And in the Southern Hemisphere, hurricane season is just beginning, with the formation of Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja near Maritius Island off the coast of Madagascar.


Figure 2. Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja in the South Indian Ocean at 1 am EST Monday November 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA.

Heavy rains hit Washington and British Columbia
A strong branch of the polar jet stream laden with moisture is streaming into Washington State and Canada's British Columbia today, and is forecast to bring heavy rains, high winds, and the threat of avalanches to the coastal mountains today through Wednesday. Heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest this time of year are often dubbed the "Pineapple Express" due to Hawaiian origin of the air, and these events are common during El Niño winters, and can strike from Southern California to British Columbia. However, I've been told by Doug McCollor, a forecaster with BC Hydro, that this rain event is not a true Pineapple Express, since the airflow is more west-to-east, rather than from the southwest. He adds, "also, freezing level at Quillayute WA was only 1800m this morning...not that high. In a Pineapple Express the freezing level would be 3500 to 4000m or so. The media here is calling it a Pineapple Express because they look out the window and it's raining all day. It is raining moderately here, no doubt, but it's because there is a downstream Rex block forming over central North America that is impeding the usual west-to-east progression of these storms".

Rainfall amounts in excess of three inches have already been recorded over Vancouver Island, and rains of up to seven inches (Figure 3) are forecast for the region over the next three days. Wind gusts of 44 mph have been recorded at La Push this morning on Washington's Olympic Peninsula.


Figure 3. Forecast precipitation for the 3-day period ending 7 am EST Thursday, November 19, 2009. Up to seven inches of rain are predicted for Washington State and coastal British Columbia. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


That would be a double bonus. Thanks canes.


No problem Geoffrey.
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Quoting caneswatch:


I do. Another colder-and-wetter-than-normal winter.


That would be a double bonus. Thanks canes.
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Hope that pans out Tim. When do you expect the fronts to start rolling through on a regular basis?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Howdy neighbor...canes, do you predict a cooler than normal winter season for us? I for one hope so.


I do. Another colder-and-wetter-than-normal winter.
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Look at the 2nd loop from the bottom of the loops......You can see the stream from the Southern Jet coming completely from Pineapple Islands in the Pacific...Its heading into Mexico on that loop.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting LongStrangeTrip:


LOL - it hangs around a little longer here in North Texas. We had a nice snowstorm in March '08, took 3 days to fully melt away.

Our snow last December in Covington took about that long to melt away...never seen it last so long in SE LA, but I never saw ~7 inches fall in 3 hours here before, either.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Howdy neighbor...canes, do you predict a cooler than normal winter season for us? I for one hope so.


Geoff for sure....all you gotta do is look at the Southern Jet stream heading at us.....if that comes in as it appears and cold temps are in place.....could make for a interesting Winter for Louis/Miss/Arka/Ga and up the East coast.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Howdy neighbor...canes, do you predict a cooler than normal winter season for us? I for one hope so.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
caneswatch...Grothar was just responding to a post that was in a similar vein. And he was right...I posted the 10-day forcast for my area from TWC. Maybe Al Roker was just having to much fun today. (Besides we live only approx. 40 miles away)


And I live about 10 miles from you in Royal Palm Beach.
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caneswatch...Grothar was just responding to a post that was in a similar vein. And he was right...I posted the 10-day forcast for my area from TWC. Maybe Al Roker was just having to much fun today. (Besides we live only approx. 40 miles away)
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Quoting Grothar:


Funny that is the indentical forecast for Ft. Lauderdale!!!!


What happened, why did you leave?
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Quoting Grothar:


The report was next season they will use invisible ink. They received too many complaints from the WU on incorrect tracks.


Grothar!!!!!! Mind joining the chat, extremely important info.
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Disaster Assitance
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Seasonal temps. forcast for West Palm the next 10 days:

Nov 16 Tonight
Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. Low 63F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 17 Tomorrow
Partly cloudy. High 82F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 17 Tomorrow night
A few clouds from time to time. Low near 65F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 18 Wednesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 19 Thursday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 20 Friday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
Nov 21 Saturday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
Nov 22 Sunday
Scattered showers. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 23 Monday
Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 24 Tuesday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 25 Wednesday
A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.


Funny that is the indentical forecast for Ft. Lauderdale!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I believe this has all the links AIM referred to.

Thanks! Will you link
www.disasterassistance.gov for folks, too! I'm challenged, and trying to multi-task...make dinner, and dogs are looking at me with THAT LOOK, again!

Hey, I am just paranoid enough to go back and delete my 2008 reports first!
Thanks again, Geoff.

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Could someone with a reliable source in the NHC please confirm that Bill Read and Ed Rappaport, have securely LOCKED the box of crayons!

Thanks in advance.

CRS


The report was next season they will use invisible ink. They received too many complaints from the WU on incorrect tracks.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Seasonal temps. forcast for West Palm the next 10 days:

Nov 16 Tonight
Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. Low 63F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 17 Tomorrow
Partly cloudy. High 82F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 17 Tomorrow night
A few clouds from time to time. Low near 65F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 18 Wednesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 19 Thursday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 20 Friday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
Nov 21 Saturday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
Nov 22 Sunday
Scattered showers. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 23 Monday
Partly cloudy, chance of a thunderstorm. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 24 Tuesday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 25 Wednesday
A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
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Wow the Pineapple Express is coming with that Southern Jet Stream......You all up north better hope it does not get cold or your looking for a nice Winter mix coming.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Could someone with a reliable source in the NHC please confirm that Bill Read and Ed Rappaport, have securely LOCKED the box of crayons!

Thanks in advance.

CRS
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting cgmaddog:
Can anyone explain to me what the delay is in declaring DELMARVA a federal disater area?

Mike

Mike, I almost posted an article for you this morning, but I've posted so much stuff and Grothar is tired of scrolling!!
Yup, the Gov. of Virginia says about the preliminary damage reports should be done about mid-week.
Remember it starts on the local jurisdiction to the state to the feds. Our kits are packed and we're on standby.

I posted daily sit. report for you, did you see it? It's gotta' be somewhere in the first 10 posts or so.

Alabama and Louisiana are asking for help, too, so you may not even have to go far from home.

Also, you can always "google" search "preliminary damage reports" or "disaster declaration" and you'll get media info.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting tornadodude:


so what does that mean for Golden Panthers? (WS)

ROFL. Well, definitely they (and WS) would like to be chauffered (chauferred??) around. I cannot spell today, notice I spelled desert as dessert before!

Mr. T-Dude; a word?
You were a Pat's fan.
So NOW you're claiming your Indiana heritage???
Next it will be Cowboys because you were born there.

This can only lead to bloodshed.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Can anyone explain to me what the delay is in declaring DELMARVA a federal disater area?

Mike
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Lol...the posts that were missing were yours! I just rebooted, so lets see what happens.

I will check back later. If you don't hear from me, it's because I was banned. Heck, there was weather and storms in that report.
Wouldn't be surprised if I got a flammogram from the guberment.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

"Grey Panthers" have paid taxes all their life, and they want service, darnit!
And the environment is inhospitable to their needs.


so what does that mean for Golden Panthers? (WS)
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Quoting Halyn:
18 miles southeast of the Arch .. weather events have a way of splitting when they get to St. Louis and some of them move south .. anywhere in the state is too close for comfort! You, however, will undoubtably get your wish before the next 30 days are over. :)


YES! At least 90% of storms, etc, split right around the stl area. I live in North County near the river and you can watch every time as precip or even a solid cell splits. The N half hits the MO River and the S half goes right under the metro area (sometimes I don't even get sprinkles and the tornado sirens are blaring). Even if something manages to hold together, it's in a weakened state and EXPLODES just across the river into a monster.

Ask anyone that lives in STL if you guys think we're BSing. It's a well known phenomenon (and no, this isn't from the radar splitting effect as precip approaches).
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Hey, Geoff, I just kicked off the blog! And then I got an internal error code.
At first I thought Grothar got me kicked off because my posts are too long.
But then I decided it was Homeland Security because I dared to post a 2008 daily activities report from Fulton, MO (because Flood's from there).
Not that I'm paranoid or anything.


Lol...the posts that were missing were yours! I just rebooted, so lets see what happens.
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Quoting NRAamy:
the second episode is on tonite....

what was up with the taxis...there's nowhere to go!!!!!

;)

"Grey Panthers" have paid taxes all their life, and they want service, darnit!
And the environment is inhospitable to their needs.

Anyone else notice Grothar disappeared when Geoff and I had server and/or internet connection trouble with blog? Poor guy is lost out there in the Village Ethernet or something.

I'm going to make some din-din for hubby and get ready for Prisoner in Village, part II.
Take care.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
the second episode is on tonite....

what was up with the taxis...there's nowhere to go!!!!!

;)
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Quoting NRAamy:
And, another beautiful day in the Village, here


like on The Prisoner?

:)

I WISH!! Did you see Jim Caveziel's (sp) pad?

What, was he crazy, wanting to get back to NYC.
Looked like he had free health care and shrinkdom, too.

Semi-interesting show, tho.

Whoops, ADD-ON: However, the dessert environment was sorely lacking in vegetation and animal life. Was it due to climate change or man's killing off of wildlife?

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting AllStar17:
Good afternoon!



All is very quiet in the Atlantic. I'd have to agree w/ Dr. Masters' assumptions. Looking forward to the early 2010 predictions, as it looks to be active next year.
2010 lets finish 09 first then on to thoses 150 posts in three days blogs
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Quoting Halyn:
18 miles southeast of the Arch .. weather events have a way of splitting when they get to St. Louis and some of them move south .. anywhere in the state is too close for comfort! You, however, will undoubtably get your wish before the next 30 days are over. :)


ah, ok, well you arent too far away, and yea, Purdue gets plenty of snow :)
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And, another beautiful day in the Village, here


like on The Prisoner?

:)
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Internet acting up...double posting...can't modify...some posts missing.

Hey, Geoff, I just kicked off the blog! And then I got an internal error code.
At first I thought Grothar got me kicked off because my posts are too long.
But then I decided it was Homeland Security because I dared to post a 2008 daily activities report from Fulton, MO (because Flood's from there).
Not that I'm paranoid or anything.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
245. Halyn
18 miles southeast of the Arch .. weather events have a way of splitting when they get to St. Louis and some of them move south .. anywhere in the state is too close for comfort! You, however, will undoubtably get your wish before the next 30 days are over. :)
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Quoting Halyn:


Bite your tongue, young man ! It would have to come near me to get to you .. :(


ha alright, where are you from?
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Internet acting up...double posting...can't modify...some posts missing.
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242. Halyn
Quoting tornadodude:


I kinda wish that snow would head to Indiana :P


Bite your tongue, young man ! It would have to come near me to get to you .. :(
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Good afternoon all……..Armadillos, furry squirrels, Mel Brooks, Flood as old as Methuselah and even a little weather talk…quite a range of topics today!
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Good afternoon all……..Armadillos, furry squirrels, Mel Brooks, Flood as old as Methuselah and even a little weather talk…quite a range of topics today!
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Quoting Grothar:


Oh, I know, I need to use the link thingee more often -- more often than not, though, the link doesn't work, so by the time I've checked and re-linked...everybody's gone and I could have cut and paste a half dozen times!

I have to admit I posted that whole CR report for Flood just for the trippy-shock value.

And, another beautiful day in the Village, here. Warm enough for shirtsleeves (I don't know the F. or C.), and now just enough of a nip for a light jacket. You'd never believe last week was so miserable.

How you?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Good afternoon!



All is very quiet in the Atlantic. I'd have to agree w/ Dr. Masters' assumptions. Looking forward to the early 2010 predictions, as it looks to be active next year.
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Quoting Floodman:


It's alright...I've pretty much resigned myself to taking over the 2000 year old man schtick


I still have the original records. You can't possibly remember that far back. Mel Brooks was only a kid then.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


OMG, wait a min., is your brother also the Sheriff, or was the sheriff??!!??

Is this her (from my report), so sorry the name is in my notes somewhere for sure, will have to dig them out.

However, her Deputy is a 24-year county resident and went out with the FEMA staffer who performed the Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs).

I thought this gal was aces.
If Fulton was closer to an ocean, I'd move there in a heartbeat. As is, the lake in Stone County is pretty darn tempting, anyway.





Fulton is a great town...the Churchill Memorial, Fish Frys at the VFW. I loved it growing up...okay folks, I'm out!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting Floodman:
Okay, my baby, I'm ready to run out of this joint...I've screwed up about as many claims as one Director of Field Ops can handle in one day


Having just quoted Sheldon, I have nothing further to contribute. I'm right behind you!

:)
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland Jerry, talk about trippy -- looks like there is a lot less than 6 degrees of separation between us.


Hey Awake, your posts are so long there is more than 6 degrees of separation between your blogs and the end of my screen. My neck gets tired of scrolling! How are you? Oh, weather any better by you??
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting Floodman:


My sister works for her...my brother-in-law runs EMS for the county...talk about a small world!


OMG, wait a min., is your brother also the Sheriff, or was the sheriff??!!??

Is this her (from my report), so sorry the name is in my notes somewhere for sure, will have to dig them out.

However, her Deputy is a 24-year county resident and went out with the FEMA staffer who performed the Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs).

I thought this gal was aces.
If Fulton was closer to an ocean, I'd move there in a heartbeat. As is, the lake in Stone County is pretty darn tempting, anyway.



Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Okay, my baby, I'm ready to run out of this joint...I've screwed up about as many claims as one Director of Field Ops can handle in one day
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting Floodman:


Nope...1895 I was in Prussia


In the words of the immortal Sheldon Cooper...BAZINGA!
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Quoting Grothar:


Just can't help yourself, can you!! lol


It's alright...I've pretty much resigned myself to taking over the 2000 year old man schtick
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting tornadodude:


Wasnt he there? ;)


LMBO...but I have to be careful about making "old" jokes on him...I'm older than he is! (Not by much, just 3 weeks...)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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