The Atlantic hurricane season is effectively over; heavy rains in the Northwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on November 16, 2009

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Only two weeks remain in the Atlantic hurricane season, but the hurricane season of 2009 is effectively over. While the Western Caribbean is still warm enough to support development of a hurricane--as it is year-round--wind shear over the entire North Atlantic has risen to levels prohibitively high for tropical storm formation to occur. Wind shear is forecast to remain very high for at least the next ten days (Figure 1). This is a fairly typical occurrence in the Atlantic for this time of year, though it usually occurs sooner in El Niño years. As you probably know, El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific commonly create high levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. This year was no exception, though the shear created by El Niño was not as strong as we've seen in other recent El Niño years. Wind shear was uncharacteristically low in the first half of November, allowing Hurricane Ida to form. Within the past ten days, though, El Niño conditions over the Eastern Pacific have intensified from moderate to strong, and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic has increased significantly, making it unlikely any significant tropical cyclones that affect land will occur the remainder of this hurricane season. Formation of a subtropical storm over the open Atlantic far from land is still a possibility, but such a storm would only be a concern to shipping.


Figure 1. Wind shear forecast for the Atlantic for ten days from now made by last night's 00Z run of the GFS model. The GFS model is forecasting very high wind shear over the entire North Atlantic over the next ten days.

Late season tropical storms in El Niño years
In the 17 hurricane seasons since 1950 where an El Niño event has been present, only three of those years featured named storms that formed after November 15. Tropical Storm Otto formed on November 29, 2004, from the remains of an extratropical storm that got cut off from the jet stream over the middle Atlantic. Otto meandered for a few days far from land before dissipating. Category 1 Hurricane Frances formed on November 19, 1986 in the open Atlantic south of Bermuda, and died after three days without affecting land. Category 1 Hurricane Martha formed on November 21, 1969 in the extreme southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Panama. Martha weakened to a tropical storm before making landfall in Panama, and was the only named storm in the Atlantic ever to make landfall in Panama.

Typhoon season not over yet
Note that typhoon season in the Western Pacific is not over--we commonly get typhoons well into December. In fact, the ECMWF model is predicting formation of yet another typhoon east of the Philippines, sometime late this week or early next week. Tropical cyclone season is also not over in the Bay of Bengal near India, where some models are predicting an enhanced chance of a tropical storm forming late this week. And in the Southern Hemisphere, hurricane season is just beginning, with the formation of Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja near Maritius Island off the coast of Madagascar.


Figure 2. Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja in the South Indian Ocean at 1 am EST Monday November 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA.

Heavy rains hit Washington and British Columbia
A strong branch of the polar jet stream laden with moisture is streaming into Washington State and Canada's British Columbia today, and is forecast to bring heavy rains, high winds, and the threat of avalanches to the coastal mountains today through Wednesday. Heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest this time of year are often dubbed the "Pineapple Express" due to Hawaiian origin of the air, and these events are common during El Niño winters, and can strike from Southern California to British Columbia. However, I've been told by Doug McCollor, a forecaster with BC Hydro, that this rain event is not a true Pineapple Express, since the airflow is more west-to-east, rather than from the southwest. He adds, "also, freezing level at Quillayute WA was only 1800m this morning...not that high. In a Pineapple Express the freezing level would be 3500 to 4000m or so. The media here is calling it a Pineapple Express because they look out the window and it's raining all day. It is raining moderately here, no doubt, but it's because there is a downstream Rex block forming over central North America that is impeding the usual west-to-east progression of these storms".

Rainfall amounts in excess of three inches have already been recorded over Vancouver Island, and rains of up to seven inches (Figure 3) are forecast for the region over the next three days. Wind gusts of 44 mph have been recorded at La Push this morning on Washington's Olympic Peninsula.


Figure 3. Forecast precipitation for the 3-day period ending 7 am EST Thursday, November 19, 2009. Up to seven inches of rain are predicted for Washington State and coastal British Columbia. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:
Is Geoff still on or did he get scared off?
Awake are you still Awake??

Sorta. Still wondering if kippers are the same as gefilte fish...couldn't wouldn't even try it.

You know the Irish gave the Scots the bagpipe, but the Scots didn't get the joke.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting PcolaDan:


Ya think????? You must be part English. LOL


Actually.. Swiss :)
Canadian by Birth, and proud of it :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting PcolaDan:


Thanks! Ever been to the ice hotel? :)


Yes, in Jukkasjärvi in Sweden. Didn't stay there, but it actually is made of ice, even the beds. Incredible work of art. But we got a very "cold" reception!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Orcasystems:


SWMBO has her own family colours also... hmm go figure.. every time she goes to Aberdeen..I am never invited :)

The skirt and purse style comments are probably why


Ya think????? You must be part English. LOL
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
375. xcool
Grothar .Lows in the 30s for the northshore here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


3rd question answered, got more?


Thanks! Ever been to the ice hotel? :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting xcool:





xcool, you always bring us back to reality. Looks like the Gulf and Caribbean are cooling down fast.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting PcolaDan:


Have good Scottish friend. Seen him drunk and in a kilt. THAT'S scary.


As long as he wasn't dancing, now that could be scary.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
371. xcool



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is Geoff still on or did he get scared off?
Awake are you still Awake??
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Grothar:


Ever watch Braveheart?????? They were scary.


Have good Scottish friend. Seen him drunk and in a kilt. THAT'S scary.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting PcolaDan:


My tartan from my Mother's side. the fight's on.


SWMBO has her own family colours also... hmm go figure.. every time she goes to Aberdeen..I am never invited :)

The skirt and purse style comments are probably why
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting PcolaDan:


I keep learning (but as you'll see in WUmail, I'll forget it) LMAO


3rd question answered, got more?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting PcolaDan:


My tartan from my Mother's side. the fight's on.


Ever watch Braveheart?????? They were scary.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Orcasystems:


True, but how scary can a guy be who wears a skirt with furry purse on his belt?


My tartan from my Mother's side. the fight's on.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Grothar:


The Normans were descendents of the Danish Vikings, who took over the area of Normandy. The Norwegians still refer to themselves as Nordmann in their own language. The d is not normally pronounced in Norwegian.


I keep learning (but as you'll see in WUmail, I'll forget it) LMAO
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting PcolaDan:


Aye! Them's fightin' words.

p.s. corrected previous post -- Norsemen not Normans

Deleted..self preservation
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting PcolaDan:


British history is so convoluted it's hard to keep track. Been taken over by almost everyone at one time or another. Aren't the Welsh, Scots and Irish original? Also, if I remember correctly, (Normans, doh! they par le vous Francais) Norsemen ousted the Saxons. Vikings didn't do to well on Scottish coast though, Thistle did them in, hence the reason it's so popular there. (This is beginning to hurt the brain now)


The Normans were descendents of the Danish Vikings, who took over the area of Normandy. The Norwegians still refer to themselves as Nordmann in their own language. The d is not normally pronounced in Norwegian.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Orcasystems:


I know if you call a Scotsman a ship wrecked Englishman.. you should have a gun in your hand.


Aye! Them's fightin' words.

p.s. corrected previous post -- Norsemen not Normans
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Orcasystems:


I know if you call a Scotsman a ship wrecked Englishman.. you should have a gun in your hand.


lol
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting PcolaDan:


British history is so convoluted it's hard to keep track. Been taken over by almost everyone at one time or another. Aren't the Welsh, Scots and Irish original? Also, if I remember correctly, Normans ousted the Saxons. Vikings didn't do to well on Scottish coast though, Thistle did them in, hence the reason it's so popular there. (This is beginning to hurt the brain now)


I know if you call a Scotsman a ship wrecked Englishman.. you should have a gun in your hand.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
I still hear the rain..and I am under that mess somewhere :(



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting Grothar:


We also gave English the names of most of the days of the week. Look it up and see how interesting it is. We also influenced the language in Britain, or else you would all be speaking a German dialect now!! Bet you didn't know that?????


British history is so convoluted it's hard to keep track. Been taken over by almost everyone at one time or another. Aren't the Welsh, Scots and Irish original? Also, if I remember correctly, (Normans, doh! they par le vous Francais) Norsemen ousted the Saxons. Vikings didn't do to well on Scottish coast though, Thistle did them in, hence the reason it's so popular there. (This is beginning to hurt the brain now)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Grothar:


You really do miss them, or where you kidding? Most people wouldn't touch them. You must have been a hardy salt!!!


When they are cooked properly.. with a bit of milk then they are very good.... Its a pleasant change from bacon or sausage. We got them once a week.. normally on a Friday morning. They go good on a piece of toast.


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting Grothar:




Guess that's what happens when you're so isolated for so long. That and your language doesn't evolve much.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Orcasystems:


I never said where they were from.. I just said I missed them :)

BTW... RCN .. RN.. basically same customs.



You really do miss them, or where you kidding? Most people wouldn't touch them. You must have been a hardy salt!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Grothar:


Kippers are British, we eat sild. lol (Same thing, though) For Breakfast???????

Is this the same as the gefilte fish my grandmother used to have around her home?
e-yuk pewie
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting PcolaDan:


Norway was an important goal for Germany during WW2 because of the ice free harbours. The things I remember are quite disjointed sometimes. No idea why some things stick and others... poof! Then there are the nagging tidbits of superfluous BS that occasionally come in handy, but usually just cause me to talk to myself. "Wait, I read something about that once. It was... no, maybe...no, ahhhh %@*&^$"


We also gave English the names of most of the days of the week. Look it up and see how interesting it is. We also influenced the language in Britain, or else you would all be speaking a German dialect now!! Bet you didn't know that?????
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
351. Orcasystems
3:52 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


Kippers are British, we eat sild. lol (Same thing, though) For Breakfast???????


I never said where they were from.. I just said I missed them :)

BTW... RCN .. RN.. basically same customs.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
350. PcolaDan
3:51 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


AHA! The internet!!! The inland areas can be quite cold, though, like Troms (Romsa). Which is the reason most of the population lives on the coast and in the south, although Trondheim is heavily populated. You should go sometime, it is actually one of the most beautiful countries you will ever see. The people are quite friendly and polite, not unlike me!!! lol


Yea, I don't do too bad with researching stuff. LOML says not only do I know what I am looking for, but also what I am looking at.

Scandinavia is one of those places I didn't manage to get to while over there and I could kick myself now for that. It's still high on the list, but, well things are going to have to get better for us before I can go back to Europe without having someplace to stay. Only Germany and England on that list though.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
349. Grothar
3:50 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


One of the few things I miss about the Navy, Kippers for breakfast on Fridays when we were at sea.


Kippers are British, we eat sild. lol (Same thing, though) For Breakfast???????
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
348. Grothar
3:45 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Quoting PcolaDan:


Just found an interesting read about Scandinavian immigration to America. LINK


Interesting article, Here is one which may give you a little laugh as well and it is weather related. It shall answer some of our questions on the blog:

Elves, trolls and ghostsSurveys show that despite their obsession with modern technology, as many as 80% of Icelanders believe in the existence of elves. Even today, roads have been rerouted and building plans redesigned or abandoned to avoid disturbing rocks where elves are said to live. All around the country, strange lava formations were once explained in folktales as trolls who were turned to stone when caught outdoors in daylight. But only children in Iceland believe in trolls today, and the once widespread belief in ghosts is in decline, some say because electricity has taken the fright out of the long winter nights.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
347. Orcasystems
3:42 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Quoting Weather789:
Grothar! You crazy viking, have some more kippered herring! Skoal!!!


One of the few things I miss about the Navy, Kippers for breakfast on Fridays when we were at sea.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
346. PcolaDan
3:42 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


Impressed you know so much about Norway. Actually the coastal areas and fjord regions has a mild climate for such Northern Latitudes. A lot of people do not know that. Not much sun in the winter though.


Norway was an important goal for Germany during WW2 because of the ice free harbours. The things I remember are quite disjointed sometimes. No idea why some things stick and others... poof! Then there are the nagging tidbits of superfluous BS that occasionally come in handy, but usually just cause me to talk to myself. "Wait, I read something about that once. It was... no, maybe...no, ahhhh %@*&^$"
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
345. Weather789
3:38 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


Impressed you know so much about Norway. Actually the coastal areas and fjord regions has a mild climate for such Northern Latitudes. A lot of people do not know that. Not much sun in the winter though.
Grothar! You crazy viking, have some more kippered herring! Skoal!!!
344. AwakeInMaryland
3:38 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Thank you StormW...very informative.....AIM, I think Rufus was having internet trouble some of us were having earlier. Double posts and such.


Ditto on the thank you to StormW,
and apologies to Rufus.
I thought he was just kidding around, as was I.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
343. Grothar
3:35 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Quoting PcolaDan:


Can't take credit for this, looked it up. Suspected it might be like Iceland, which gets it's warmth (so to speak) from the Gulf Stream, to a degree. UK (which I knew) and to some degree, the Scandinavian Peninsula (which was nagging the back of my head as somethiing that was right) also get some warmth from this. Why I knew this I have no idea. Minot I knew from experience, and having left there at -20F with wind chill of -50, and arriving in Pensacola to 70F with high humidity. Couldn't hardly breath.



AHA! The internet!!! The inland areas can be quite cold, though, like Troms (Romsa). Which is the reason most of the population lives on the coast and in the south, although Trondheim is heavily populated. You should go sometime, it is actually one of the most beautiful countries you will ever see. The people are quite friendly and polite, not unlike me!!! lol
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
342. AwakeInMaryland
3:35 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


Whoa whoa whoa! I have never claimed to like the Pats. I like the Red Sox, but not the Pats! haha I love the Colts and the Cowboys. :P


(third person, invisible)
It's such a terrible thing, we had such high hopes for the young man.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
341. PcolaDan
3:34 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Quoting Grothar:
I believe it is why so many of my ancestors moved to places like Minnesota and other places in the Midwest. It reminded them of home.


Just found an interesting read about Scandinavian immigration to America. LINK
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
340. PcolaDan
3:26 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


Impressed you know so much about Norway. Actually the coastal areas and fjord regions has a mild climate for such Northern Latitudes. A lot of people do not know that. Not much sun in the winter though.


Can't take credit for this, looked it up. Suspected it might be like Iceland, which gets it's warmth (so to speak) from the Gulf Stream, to a degree. UK (which I knew) and to some degree, the Scandinavian Peninsula (which was nagging the back of my head as somethiing that was right) also get some warmth from this. Why I knew this I have no idea. Minot I knew from experience, and having left there at -20F with wind chill of -50, and arriving in Pensacola to 70F with high humidity. Couldn't hardly breath.

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
339. GeoffreyWPB
3:25 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Thank you StormW...very informative.....AIM, I think Rufus was having internet trouble some of us were having earlier. Double posts and such.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
338. AwakeInMaryland
3:24 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Still, I'd rather be awake in maryland than dead in philadelphia. (per Chicklit)

Proposed by Fields:
Here lies W. C. Fields. I would rather be living in Philadelphia. (item 2, per Chicklit.)


As representative of my district, I vote "yea" on both these items.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
336. AwakeInMaryland
3:19 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
322. RufusBaker 2:33 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
The Atlantic hurricane season is effectively over

323. RufusBaker 2:34 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
The Atlantic hurricane season is effectively over

324. RufusBaker 2:34 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
The Atlantic hurricane season is effectively over

Um, how you say, this thing, the monomania?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
335. GeoffreyWPB
3:06 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Hi Storm...living in so. Fla., do you see a cooler and more rainy than normal winter this season...as a few bloggers have already posted?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
333. Grothar
2:59 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
I believe it is why so many of my ancestors moved to places like Minnesota and other places in the Midwest. It reminded them of home.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
332. Grothar
2:56 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
316. PcolaDan 9:16 PM EST on November 16, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


I've been in an actual Arctic blast, above the Arctic Circle. Not fun. Try spending a winter in Northern Norway, you'll never want another one. lol


Minot, ND nuff said

On average, It gets colder in North Dakota than in Northern Norway during their respective winter seasons? Did not know that.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Well of course. They have water north of them in Norway, Minot has ........... CANADA!!!

Actually I was a little surprised at some of the number.
Minot:Average high temperature for January is 15 degrees, average temperature is 7 degrees. The average low temperature is two degrees below zero. The coldest temperature ever recorded here is 35 degrees below zero.

Norway:The coast experiences much milder winters than other areas at the same latitudes. The temperature difference from the coldest month to the warmest is only 11 - 15 °C in coastal areas; some lighthouses has a year amplitude of just 10 °C, such as Svinøy in Herøy with a coldest month of 2.7 °C [5]. The amplitude of inland areas are larger, with a maximum of 30 °C in Karasjok. Finnmarksvidda has the coldest winters in Norway, but inland areas further south can also see severe cold; Røros has recorded -50 °C and Tynset has a January average -13°C. Normal monthly averages range from -17.1 °C in January in Karasjok 129 m amsl.[6] to 17.3 °C in July in Oslo - Studenterlunden 15 m amsl.


Impressed you know so much about Norway. Actually the coastal areas and fjord regions has a mild climate for such Northern Latitudes. A lot of people do not know that. Not much sun in the winter though.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
331. GeoffreyWPB
2:48 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Excellent reseach Dan. Thank you.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
330. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:48 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TWELVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA (04-20092010)
4:00 AM Réunion November 17 2009
=========================================

At 0:00 AM, Tropical Cyclone Anja (950 hPa) located at 16.4S 67.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 9 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
close to the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
10 NM from the center

Gale-force winds
==================
30 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Near Gale-force winds
======================
40 NM from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the southeastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.9S 66.2E - 70 kts (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 20.0S 65.8E - 50 kts (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 26.5S 71.2E - 30 kts (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 32.3S 81.0E - 30 kts (Depression EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
========================
Despite a less well defined and less warm eye over the last12 hours, the surrounding ring temperature has become cooler and DT has then increased. As ANJA tracks southsouthwestward, then southward along the northwestern then western periphery of a low to mid level ridge located in the southeast, it should enter a less favorable environment within the next 12 hours. Despite an upper level poleward divergence which maintains the ocean heat content becomes lower beyond 16S and the poleward low level inflow weakens. Beyond 24 hrs, the system is forecast to recurve ahead of an approaching trough, then accelerate southeastwards.

Model guidance is in rather good agreement with the track, but is different related to the speed of the system to evacuate in the midlatitudes.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47068
329. NEwxguy
2:42 AM GMT on November 17, 2009
I'm always impressed when people find new ways to be ignored
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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