The Atlantic hurricane season is effectively over; heavy rains in the Northwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on November 16, 2009

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Only two weeks remain in the Atlantic hurricane season, but the hurricane season of 2009 is effectively over. While the Western Caribbean is still warm enough to support development of a hurricane--as it is year-round--wind shear over the entire North Atlantic has risen to levels prohibitively high for tropical storm formation to occur. Wind shear is forecast to remain very high for at least the next ten days (Figure 1). This is a fairly typical occurrence in the Atlantic for this time of year, though it usually occurs sooner in El Niño years. As you probably know, El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific commonly create high levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. This year was no exception, though the shear created by El Niño was not as strong as we've seen in other recent El Niño years. Wind shear was uncharacteristically low in the first half of November, allowing Hurricane Ida to form. Within the past ten days, though, El Niño conditions over the Eastern Pacific have intensified from moderate to strong, and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic has increased significantly, making it unlikely any significant tropical cyclones that affect land will occur the remainder of this hurricane season. Formation of a subtropical storm over the open Atlantic far from land is still a possibility, but such a storm would only be a concern to shipping.


Figure 1. Wind shear forecast for the Atlantic for ten days from now made by last night's 00Z run of the GFS model. The GFS model is forecasting very high wind shear over the entire North Atlantic over the next ten days.

Late season tropical storms in El Niño years
In the 17 hurricane seasons since 1950 where an El Niño event has been present, only three of those years featured named storms that formed after November 15. Tropical Storm Otto formed on November 29, 2004, from the remains of an extratropical storm that got cut off from the jet stream over the middle Atlantic. Otto meandered for a few days far from land before dissipating. Category 1 Hurricane Frances formed on November 19, 1986 in the open Atlantic south of Bermuda, and died after three days without affecting land. Category 1 Hurricane Martha formed on November 21, 1969 in the extreme southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Panama. Martha weakened to a tropical storm before making landfall in Panama, and was the only named storm in the Atlantic ever to make landfall in Panama.

Typhoon season not over yet
Note that typhoon season in the Western Pacific is not over--we commonly get typhoons well into December. In fact, the ECMWF model is predicting formation of yet another typhoon east of the Philippines, sometime late this week or early next week. Tropical cyclone season is also not over in the Bay of Bengal near India, where some models are predicting an enhanced chance of a tropical storm forming late this week. And in the Southern Hemisphere, hurricane season is just beginning, with the formation of Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja near Maritius Island off the coast of Madagascar.


Figure 2. Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja in the South Indian Ocean at 1 am EST Monday November 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA.

Heavy rains hit Washington and British Columbia
A strong branch of the polar jet stream laden with moisture is streaming into Washington State and Canada's British Columbia today, and is forecast to bring heavy rains, high winds, and the threat of avalanches to the coastal mountains today through Wednesday. Heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest this time of year are often dubbed the "Pineapple Express" due to Hawaiian origin of the air, and these events are common during El Niño winters, and can strike from Southern California to British Columbia. However, I've been told by Doug McCollor, a forecaster with BC Hydro, that this rain event is not a true Pineapple Express, since the airflow is more west-to-east, rather than from the southwest. He adds, "also, freezing level at Quillayute WA was only 1800m this morning...not that high. In a Pineapple Express the freezing level would be 3500 to 4000m or so. The media here is calling it a Pineapple Express because they look out the window and it's raining all day. It is raining moderately here, no doubt, but it's because there is a downstream Rex block forming over central North America that is impeding the usual west-to-east progression of these storms".

Rainfall amounts in excess of three inches have already been recorded over Vancouver Island, and rains of up to seven inches (Figure 3) are forecast for the region over the next three days. Wind gusts of 44 mph have been recorded at La Push this morning on Washington's Olympic Peninsula.


Figure 3. Forecast precipitation for the 3-day period ending 7 am EST Thursday, November 19, 2009. Up to seven inches of rain are predicted for Washington State and coastal British Columbia. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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Sorry, Pearland...he's a local met here in the DFW area...very old school and (I'm going to blasted by someone in here) not too terribly accurate, except in the summer...
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now i remember him...from my days in Plano! LOL
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The results are all clustered i the middle; much like mainstream America. What was it Bush the elder said, when questioned about GW?

"Can't make a call right now; needs more study. A decision now wouldn't be prudent"
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425. now you're gonna make me go Google "David Finfrock"...the name rings a bell but the reverberations fall on deaf ears :)
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424.
Weather girls and David Finfrock...LOL
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regardless of what you believe, the results of this AMS survey are interesting...


Opportunities and Obstacles for Television Weathercasters to Report on Climate Change

The survey was distributed by e-mail to broadcast meteorologists on the AMS listserve (numbering approximately 800) the week of 8 May 2008. There were 121 responses by 7 June, which was more than the expected goal of 100. Direct comparisons between this highly selective sample of AMS members and the larger random mail sample of all TV weathercasters published in 2002 are difficult. Different questions and methodologies were used. General patterns will be noted, but since this sample is selected from only AMS meteorologists, we can’t know from these data whether all TV weathercasters share their perspectives or not. Presumably, AMS sealholders are more scientifically trained than the general population of all on-air weathercasters. Ultimately, we surveyed this group because they are the primary targets of the new online instructional course that will count toward AMS professional development credits.


15. As a TV weathercaster, I should be knowledgeable about the basic conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment.
Strongly Agree (1) Agree (2) Neutral (3) Disagree (4) Strongly Disagree (5)
28 52 13 5 2

16. Respond to this IPCC conclusion: “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.”
Strongly Agree (1) Agree (2) Neutral (3) Disagree (4) Strongly Disagree (5)
17% 28% 21% 20% 14%

17. Respond to this IPCC conclusion: “Most of the warming since 1950 is very likely human-induced.”
Strongly Agree (1) Agree (2) Neutral (3) Disagree (4) Strongly Disagree (5)
8% 16% 25% 24% 26%

20. Global climate models are reliable in their projections for a warming of the planet.
Strongly Agree (1) Agree (2) Neutral (3) Disagree (4) Strongly Disagree (5)
3 16 20 37 25

21. Global climate models are reliable in their projections for precipitation and drought.
Strongly Agree (1) Agree (2) Neutral (3) Disagree (4) Strongly Disagree (5)
1% 18% 29% 36% 16%

22. Global climate models are reliable in their projections for local weather patterns.
Strongly Agree (1) Agree (2) Neutral (3) Disagree (4) Strongly Disagree (5)
0% 14% 25% 38% 24%

18. Respond to one TV weathercaster’s quote saying: “Global warming is a scam.”
Strongly Agree (1) Agree (2) Neutral (3) Disagree (4) Strongly Disagree (5)
10% 19% 26% 23% 22%
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Ahh ha haaa.
So we are winding down the hurricane season gearing up for the holiday season, and Dr Master's blog covers both the Polar Express, and plugs the new Twilight movie with a weather report from La Push!
It makes me laugh.
Thanks.
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Good Morning,
Not that the morning is particulary good but I am still breathing so life continues. Fall temperatures are trying to make a return.
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"Avila, I told you yesterday... No, you can not have the crayons again this year"!
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
416. IKE
330 hours...
21 minutes...and it's officially over...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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That was so BAAAAAAAAAAAd
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Quoting Grothar:


Haggis always makes me a little sheepish!


ughhhhhhhh terrible joke

LOL haha
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1776
guess anja is dying an early death
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1776
412. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTIN20 DEMS 170700 ***
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI: 17-11-2009
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)
NO CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA.
RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES ALONG LATITUDE 150N OVER INDIAN REGION.


THE INTERNET NOW HAS A PERSONALITY. YOURS? SEE YOUR YAHOO?
HOMEPAGE. HTTP://IN.YAHOO.COM/=

---
LOL India Meteorological Department is now advertising for Yahoo.com
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411. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number THIRTEEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANJA (04-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion November 17 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM, Tropical Cyclone Anja (960 hPa) located at 17.3S 67.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
close to the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
10 NM from the center

Gale-force winds
==================
30 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Near Gale-force winds
======================
40 NM from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the southeastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 19.1S 66.4E - 70 kts (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 21.6S 66.3E - 55 kts (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 28.3S 73.2E - 35 kts (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 34.4S 84.4E - 30 kts (Depression EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
========================

Despite a temporarily increase of DT during the night, last satellite imagery shows indication of weakening, less symetry of deep convection, surrounding ring temperature becoming warmler. As Anja tracks southward along the western periphery of the low to mid level ridge located in the southeast, it should enter a less favorable environment. Despite an upper level poleward divergence which maintains, the ocen heat content become lower beyond 16S and the polewards low level inflow beyond 12 hours, the system is forecast to recurve ahead of an approaching trough, then accelerate southeastwards.

Next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at around 12:30 PM UTC..
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Its the only way to drink a single malt scotch :)

It right up there with Haggis

I am pretty sure the Scots invented it to get even with the world


Beer ftw.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1776
In all my travels I never met with any one Scotchman but what was a man of sense. I believe everybody of that country that has any, leaves it as fast as they can.

Author: Francis Lockier
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Gl�gg and Grog two different things. Although Grog is one of those words I have heard used incorrectly as Gl�gg. Gl�gg = German Gl�hwein = English Mulled Wine
p.s. can't fit a dog in a sporran

and on that note I'm off to bed later ya'll


Sounds tasty. Good night again!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

OH MY... he drank it.
Oh, and if Glogg is Grog, or anything like it, I'm in.

I looked up Sporran and I'd like one of those little bags for clubbing! Me and Paris and Niki...


Glgg and Grog two different things. Although Grog is one of those words I have heard used incorrectly as Glgg. Glgg = German Glhwein = English Mulled Wine
p.s. can't fit a dog in a sporran

and on that note I'm off to bed later ya'll
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404. xcool
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If you guys keep talking about Haggis, carp, herring, etc., you're going to drive me to vegetables. For the environment.

I started watching a movie called The Locusts because I thought it would be something creepy or apocalyptic, but not at all. It's a dra-ma. I'm underwhelmed & disappointed.

Good night, gentlemen. I sure hope we don't have as bad a winter as the blog has been projecting. See you on the morrow, if you're here!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its the only way to drink a single malt scotch :)

It right up there with Haggis

I am pretty sure the Scots invented it to get even with the world


Haggis always makes me a little sheepish!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25060
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its the only way to drink a single malt scotch :)

OH MY... he drank it.
To tell you the truth, I think that's the only way I could ever drink Scotch.
Many years ago, my husband introduced me one night to 3 really good Scotches, Glenfiddich, Glensomethingelse, etc.
I'm afraid I just couldn't appreciate the flavor.

Oh, and if Glogg is Grog, or anything like it, I'm in.

I looked up Sporran and I'd like one of those little bags for clubbing! Me and Paris and Niki...
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting PcolaDan:


GAWD I hope not. You'll have to wait for Orca to answer. He started it...


Its the only way to drink a single malt scotch :)

It right up there with Haggis

I am pretty sure the Scots invented it to get even with the world
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Grothar:
Hey Awake, did you see my answer????

Yeah, but I'm still awake waiting for Orca to answer if he actually drank root beer and Scotch.

And what killed which.

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Hey Awake, did you see my answer????
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25060
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
And is this an actual drink?




GAWD I hope not. You'll have to wait for Orca to answer. He started it...
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Ahh me lad.. I am just a wee sweet innocent young man :)


Sorry, I didn't answer sooner Orca, I just fell off a turnip truck. LOL
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Reeeaaaly considering quoting that to SWMBO blog to confirm. ;)


ummmmmm
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Okay, I'll play "Gracie" and all you guys can play George Burns.

Does the Scotch kill the taste of the root beer, or the root beer kill the taste of the Scotch?

And is this an actual drink?




Good night, Gracie!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25060
Quoting Grothar:


Dan, you have had Glögg, haven't you? I believe you said you liked it. Holidays are coming up and I always have it.


You bet. My parents actually still have the bottle I gave them, unopened. Need to try and find some here.
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Okay, I'll play "Gracie" and all you guys can play George Burns.

Does the Scotch kill the taste of the root beer, or the root beer kill the taste of the Scotch?

And is this an actual drink?


Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ahh me lad.. I am just a wee sweet innocent young man :)


Reeeaaaly considering quoting that to SWMBO blog to confirm. ;)
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Can't argue with you on that one. LOL

(note: thought my German friend were going to die when they tasted root beer)


Dan, you have had Glögg, haven't you? I believe you said you liked it. Holidays are coming up and I always have it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25060
Quoting Grothar:


Ach Orca, me thinks thou hast another side to thee! Good shot!


Ahh me lad.. I am just a wee sweet innocent young man :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting xcool:
30min from n.o


Kind of cold for that area, isn't it?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25060
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmmmm... to get even....

You know the only way to drink a good scotch is to mix it with rootbeer :) Kills the god awful smell and taste


Ach Orca, me thinks thou hast another side to thee! Good shot!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25060
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmmmm... to get even....

You know the only way to drink a good scotch is to mix it with rootbeer :) Kills the god awful smell and taste


Can't argue with you on that one. LOL

(note: thought my German friend were going to die when they tasted root beer)
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385. xcool
30min from n.o
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Sorta. Still wondering if kippers are the same as gefilte fish...couldn't wouldn't even try it.

You know the Irish gave the Scots the bagpipe, but the Scots didn't get the joke.


That's why, they gave it too them, anything free... Now if they had charged for it...

Yes, I'm an oddity, I like the bagpipe. But then again, if I had gone to that wedding, I would have had a kilt and SPORRAN too.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Always thought you were kinda cheesy. :)


Hmmmmm... to get even....

You know the only way to drink a good scotch is to mix it with rootbeer :) Kills the god awful smell and taste
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Sorta. Still wondering if kippers are the same as gefilte fish...couldn't wouldn't even try it.

You know the Irish gave the Scots the bagpipe, but the Scots didn't get the joke.


No, gefilte fish is made out of I think what you call carp. and it is breaded. Kippers are herring. In Scandinavia every city has its own recipe, actually every home has their own. It is called sild, pronounced sill. It is cooked with tomatoes, dill, sour sauce, cream sauce, pickled sauce. It never ends. It can also be "kippered".
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25060
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually.. Swiss :)
Canadian by Birth, and proud of it :)


Always thought you were kinda cheesy. :)
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Quoting xcool:
Grothar .Lows in the 30s for the northshore here


Where you at again xcool?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25060
Quoting Grothar:
Is Geoff still on or did he get scared off?
Awake are you still Awake??

Sorta. Still wondering if kippers are the same as gefilte fish...couldn't wouldn't even try it.

You know the Irish gave the Scots the bagpipe, but the Scots didn't get the joke.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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