The Atlantic hurricane season is effectively over; heavy rains in the Northwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on November 16, 2009

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Only two weeks remain in the Atlantic hurricane season, but the hurricane season of 2009 is effectively over. While the Western Caribbean is still warm enough to support development of a hurricane--as it is year-round--wind shear over the entire North Atlantic has risen to levels prohibitively high for tropical storm formation to occur. Wind shear is forecast to remain very high for at least the next ten days (Figure 1). This is a fairly typical occurrence in the Atlantic for this time of year, though it usually occurs sooner in El Niño years. As you probably know, El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific commonly create high levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. This year was no exception, though the shear created by El Niño was not as strong as we've seen in other recent El Niño years. Wind shear was uncharacteristically low in the first half of November, allowing Hurricane Ida to form. Within the past ten days, though, El Niño conditions over the Eastern Pacific have intensified from moderate to strong, and wind shear over the tropical Atlantic has increased significantly, making it unlikely any significant tropical cyclones that affect land will occur the remainder of this hurricane season. Formation of a subtropical storm over the open Atlantic far from land is still a possibility, but such a storm would only be a concern to shipping.


Figure 1. Wind shear forecast for the Atlantic for ten days from now made by last night's 00Z run of the GFS model. The GFS model is forecasting very high wind shear over the entire North Atlantic over the next ten days.

Late season tropical storms in El Niño years
In the 17 hurricane seasons since 1950 where an El Niño event has been present, only three of those years featured named storms that formed after November 15. Tropical Storm Otto formed on November 29, 2004, from the remains of an extratropical storm that got cut off from the jet stream over the middle Atlantic. Otto meandered for a few days far from land before dissipating. Category 1 Hurricane Frances formed on November 19, 1986 in the open Atlantic south of Bermuda, and died after three days without affecting land. Category 1 Hurricane Martha formed on November 21, 1969 in the extreme southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Panama. Martha weakened to a tropical storm before making landfall in Panama, and was the only named storm in the Atlantic ever to make landfall in Panama.

Typhoon season not over yet
Note that typhoon season in the Western Pacific is not over--we commonly get typhoons well into December. In fact, the ECMWF model is predicting formation of yet another typhoon east of the Philippines, sometime late this week or early next week. Tropical cyclone season is also not over in the Bay of Bengal near India, where some models are predicting an enhanced chance of a tropical storm forming late this week. And in the Southern Hemisphere, hurricane season is just beginning, with the formation of Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja near Maritius Island off the coast of Madagascar.


Figure 2. Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Anja in the South Indian Ocean at 1 am EST Monday November 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA.

Heavy rains hit Washington and British Columbia
A strong branch of the polar jet stream laden with moisture is streaming into Washington State and Canada's British Columbia today, and is forecast to bring heavy rains, high winds, and the threat of avalanches to the coastal mountains today through Wednesday. Heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest this time of year are often dubbed the "Pineapple Express" due to Hawaiian origin of the air, and these events are common during El Niño winters, and can strike from Southern California to British Columbia. However, I've been told by Doug McCollor, a forecaster with BC Hydro, that this rain event is not a true Pineapple Express, since the airflow is more west-to-east, rather than from the southwest. He adds, "also, freezing level at Quillayute WA was only 1800m this morning...not that high. In a Pineapple Express the freezing level would be 3500 to 4000m or so. The media here is calling it a Pineapple Express because they look out the window and it's raining all day. It is raining moderately here, no doubt, but it's because there is a downstream Rex block forming over central North America that is impeding the usual west-to-east progression of these storms".

Rainfall amounts in excess of three inches have already been recorded over Vancouver Island, and rains of up to seven inches (Figure 3) are forecast for the region over the next three days. Wind gusts of 44 mph have been recorded at La Push this morning on Washington's Olympic Peninsula.


Figure 3. Forecast precipitation for the 3-day period ending 7 am EST Thursday, November 19, 2009. Up to seven inches of rain are predicted for Washington State and coastal British Columbia. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

I'll have a new post Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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629. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SEVENTEEN
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER ANJA (04-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion November 18 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM, Tropical Depression, Former Anja (999 hPa) located at 21.6S 66.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south-at 5 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-force winds
======================
near the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 25.1S 67.5E - 30 kts (DEPRESSION se Comblant)
24 HRS: 29.0S 71.7E - (se Dissipant)

Additional Information
========================
Anja has weakened rapidly and is expected to merge with the cold front located to its southwest within the next 36 hours
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Quoting ElConando:


I think it was this season, very slow very annoying. People want to take a break I guess. Heck I'm here because it ain't Dec 1 yet. I'll only be on sparingly until mid may, unless something earlier forms, which is unlikely.


Well, I'm just kind of poking my head in for a minute; trying to finish up all my work backlog before I do the "out for two weeks" thing...want to finish my work myself; it's easier to take a beating for poorly done work if you're the one that did it poorly...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting Floodman:
Wow, this blog really does die off in the winter...anyone home?


I think it was this season, very slow very annoying. People want to take a break I guess. Heck I'm here because it ain't Dec 1 yet. I'll only be on sparingly until mid may, unless something earlier forms, which is unlikely.
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Quoting albert0826:
I want the cold front to front on South Florida, please.


you asking us or a higher power?
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Wow, this blog really does die off in the winter...anyone home?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
624. MTWX
Quoting TampaSpin:


The low in the middle of the country sure is wicked looking...Wow!

Not a real wet one though. Brought winter-like temps here in NE Mississippi.
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The low in the middle of the country sure is wicked looking...Wow!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
622. MTWX
Hurricane season is finally over. Getting the gear together for our tornado season here in Dixie Alley!!
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I want the cold front to front on South Florida, please.
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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
619. xcool



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618. Halyn
mmmmm .. hello, ya'll .. what is that swirlly thing centered on Il in the #617 .. if that were over water I might know .. :)
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It appears our hurricane season may at last be ending---that which was Ida is flagged as dissipating in the latest chart:



so by dissipate they must mean, just kidding lol early april fools joke? must be 50kt winds over bermuda.

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616. JRRP
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howdy all

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
613. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SIXTEEN
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ANJA (04-20092010)
4:00 AM Réunion November 18 2009
=========================================

At 0:00 AM, Severe Tropical Storm Anja (985 hPa) located at 20.4S 65.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.5

Storm Force Winds
===================
10 NM from the center

Gale-force winds
==================
20 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale-force winds
======================
30 NM from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the northeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.8S 66.1E - 35 kts (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 26.8S 69.4E - 35 kts (Devenant EXTRATROPICAL)
48 HRS: 35.1S 80.7E - 25 kts (Depression EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
========================
Northwesterly increasing vertical wind shear has totally disorganized the residual deep convection structure. Due to lack of clear low level circulation center on recent multispectral imagery (microwave or infrared), the location of the estimated center is very approximately and will probably be relocated on next advisory. ANJA winds structure is very assymetric and strongest winds extend mainly far in the eastern semi-circle. System is soon expected to recurve southwards then to evacuate southeastwards. System should make its extratropical transition within the polar trough trasiting in its south and then dissipate within 48-72 hrs.
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when the hail is the size of grapefruit then ya got a problem

weather is changing aussie and in a really big way soon
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Alarming storms bring large hail and gusty winds

Severe storms have been careering through northeast New South Wales and southeast Queensland during the afternoon, firing up from around 2 o'clock.

So far, storms have shown a number of alarming features. Large hail has been reported in Murwillumbah and Prior, with a diameter of two to four centimetres, enough to cause significant damage to cars, windows and people.

Wind has also been a factor. Any gusts greater than 90 km/h are classified as damaging, with the power to break branches off trees and cause minor infrastructure damage. At Dalby, in QLD, a gust of 109km/h was reported.

A trough has been swinging through the east over the past 24 hours, bringing a gusty change to the NSW coast. It is also partly responsible for the storms.

Tomorrow, storms are again a chance over the southeast QLD area, but should be more isolated as conditions become less favourable for the thunder.

- Weatherzone
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Take care Flood.
And best of luck, and swift recoup, from the op.
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Flood I just sent the "godspeed" text on tweeticus to the boss lady...I mentioned that we will save you some duck and goose jerkey from "duckageddon" 2009 last weekend, but we know Marvin would eat it all...anyway brother you know what you and LST mean to us, and we wish you the best and a speedy recovery.

Conch
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Okay folks, I'm out for a little while...good thoughts, good evening and play nice!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

I had to look it up. You know too much, Flood, and now I do too!

Thanks muchly for mail.


Well, if you knew why I took organic chemistry in college and knew what ergot can be made into you'd know why I know so much about it...as for the email, it was nothing. I'm just sorry I didn't know sooner. He'll be fine, I'm sure...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting Floodman:


Can you say Ergot?

I had to look it up. You know too much, Flood, and now I do too!

Thanks muchly for mail.
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Awake, you have mail, BTW
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
This is NOT the disaster declaration I was looking for!

VOMIT-Toxin! Now that's a disgusting germ.
(Actually, same thing that caused the Potato Famine in Ireland.)

"Vomitoxin" disaster declared in 10 Md. counties

A fungal grain infestation caused by last spring's wet weather in Maryland was bad enough to earn a federal agricultural disaster declaration for 10 Maryland counties. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Thomas J. Vilsack approved the state's request for aid in a Nov. 13 letter to Gov. Martin O'Malley.


Can you say Ergot?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
This is NOT the disaster declaration I was looking for!

VOMIT-Toxin! Now that's a disgusting germ.
(Actually, same thing that caused the Potato Famine in Ireland.)

"Vomitoxin" disaster declared in 10 Md. counties

A fungal grain infestation caused by last spring's wet weather in Maryland was bad enough to earn a federal agricultural disaster declaration for 10 Maryland counties. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Thomas J. Vilsack approved the state's request for aid in a Nov. 13 letter to Gov. Martin O'Malley.
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Quoting WaterWitch11:
hi everyone,
isn't there a song called waiting on the rain? it just started to drizzle here and we are suppose to have heavy rain on friday. northern california. last storm with all it's warnings was a dud here, it was all centered at the coast.

Thank you for your good wishes, WaterWitch!

Wow, what style of music do you like? We got a bunch of them.

Country/Rock, Griffin Dunne at The Union, Waiting for the Rain Come Down
Link

Oh, my, Art Rock w/Alannah, "The Danish Princess" (a new girl for Grothar?)
Waitin' on the Rain
Link

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no pre-emptive bans!!!!!!!!

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting NRAamy:
Also, I'm still waiting for NRAAmy's to 'splain the new "Prisoner" to me (thankfully, only 2 more painful hours), and for her online review of 2012 (meteorological aspects, of course).

Awake...I gave up on The Prisoner...watched for an hour and a half last night...Al Gore in a speedo would have been less painful...

And I'm seeing 2012 tomorrow....


What an image. Where's P-Dan with an emoticon. Hey, Al's lost a little weight. Think he's seen your posts.

I will be SO looking forward to your review of 2012...and will miss you awfully during your ban.
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I love the cow....he's seen the world!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting NRAamy:
Jerry...I think he gets them from the cow on his dashboard.....


Huh...wha...didn't do nuttin
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Quoting Greyelf:
Anyone heard from Orca since this morning? I had made a post asking if he felt the earthquake this morning (LOCATION - QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION, MAGNITUDE - 6.5), but haven't seen a response.


Hmmmm

M6.6 – Queen Charlotte Islands Region
Tuesday, November 17, 2009 at 15:30:46 UTC
Tuesday, November 17, 2009 at 07:30:46 Local
Globe at 50 -130. Click to view event page.

52.15°N 131.38°W
Depth: 11km

1. Maps
2. Graphs
3. Responses
4. Downloads
5. Did You Feel It? — Tell Us !

City map
Intensity vs. Distance
Intensity vs. Distance
Intensity vs. Distance
Responses vs. Time
Responses vs. Time
Printer Friendly Response Summary
Summary of Responses by ZipState ZIP Name ZIP Code MMI Resp. Distance Latitude Longitude
MT Butte 59701 1 1 1538 45.98°N 112.53°W
ID Lewiston 83501 2 1 1248 46.20°N 116.87°W
OR Brookings 97415 2 1 1234 42.22°N 124.09°W
WA Bellingham 98229 1 1 744 48.69°N 122.41°W
WA Oak Harbor 98277 1 1 755 48.32°N 122.63°W
WA Forks 98331 1 1 694 47.88°N 124.31°W
AK Chugiak 99567 2 1 1509 61.46°N 149.33°W
AK Hyder 99923 2 1 390 55.63°N 130.73°W
Summary of Responses by CityCountry Region City MMI Resp. Distance Latitude Longitude
Canada British Columbia Abbotsford 4 1 728 49.06°N 122.30°W
Canada British Columbia Burns Lake 3 1 439 54.22°N 125.77°W
Canada British Columbia Campbell River 2 1 493 49.99°N 125.23°W
Canada British Columbia Duncan 2 1 661 48.78°N 123.70°W
Canada British Columbia Kitimat 3 19 273 54.01°N 128.70°W
Canada British Columbia Prince Rupert 2 19 251 54.32°N 130.31°W
Canada British Columbia Smithers 2 6 403 54.77°N 127.17°W
Canada British Columbia Terrace 2 15 321 54.52°N 128.61°W
Canada British Columbia Vancouver 1 1 664 49.28°N 123.13°W
Canada British Columbia Vanderhoof 2 2 535 54.02°N 124.02°W
Canada British Columbia White Rock 2 1 697 49.03°N 122.83°W
Canada British Columbia Williams Lake 2 1 632 52.13°N 122.14°W
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Quoting NRAamy:
Jerry...I think he gets them from the cow on his dashboard.....


That would explain it, darlin'!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting Halyn:


Hope it all goes well, Floodman .. :) Am sure it will be a relief ..


Thanks, Halyn...if the staff today were any indication, all will go well and the relief, I assure you, will be palpable...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Jerry...I think he gets them from the cow on his dashboard.....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting PcolaDan:




where does this guy get these icons? Thanks, P'cola...you really crack me up, man
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
590. Halyn
Quoting Floodman:
Howdy folks...all pre-opped and ready for Thursday. em>


Hope it all goes well, Floodman .. :) Am sure it will be a relief ..
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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting Floodman:


Thank you Grothar; I really haven't done anything that out of the ordinary but I'm glad to know that I may have made some of you smile and helped some of you with whatever problems you've had...we old hippies love that sort of thing, you know...


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Quoting Grothar:
Flood, here is one of my famous little quotes for you! It is an old Swedish proverb:

Vänskap fördubblar vår glädje och delar vår sorg.

"Friendship doubles our joy and divides our grief".

That's what you have done for some of us.

Try and get a room with a view so at least you can look at the weather. Stay well!


Thank you Grothar; I really haven't done anything that out of the ordinary but I'm glad to know that I may have made some of you smile and helped some of you with whatever problems you've had...we old hippies love that sort of thing, you know...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting morebeachtime:
Hi Flood,
Just wanted to add my good wishes and prayers for your quick recovery. As for the "pain button", just pretend it is the Woodstock era and you will totally chill!


Thanks, beachtime! With all these prayers and thoughts flying around for me, I shuld be back ion my feet in days! You guys are the best and thank you again, beachtime...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting icmoore:
Hey Flood we'll be here thinking good thoughts for you and don't worry when we talk about you, and you know we will, it will all be good :)
Great meeting LST the other day and knowing she will keep us informed and give us the inside stuff:) Me thinks you better be nice to the Chief Darlin' in your life LOL!
It's been sunny and about 80 degrees here, nothing better except 90.


She was equally pleased to meet you; and that goes for everyone here...you guys made her feel welcome and we both appreciate that. The hospital does indeed have wireless; she will be keeping the updates coming. You can rest assured that if I say anything even remotely funny while "under the influence" she will let you guys know...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting jeffs713:

So Flood will be handing out eye bleach to the poor unfortunate souls that have had the experience of seeing his wardrobe malfunction. gotcha.

Honestly though... I hope the surgery goes well, and it accomplishes everything you are looking for. Get well soon!


Thanks, Jeff; I'll be trying hard...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting hcubed:


Well, there's always the "doggie bag" of leftovers, right?


Ahhh, one can only hope...LOL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Also, I'm still waiting for NRAAmy's to 'splain the new "Prisoner" to me (thankfully, only 2 more painful hours), and for her online review of 2012 (meteorological aspects, of course).

Awake...I gave up on The Prisoner...watched for an hour and a half last night...Al Gore in a speedo would have been less painful...

And I'm seeing 2012 tomorrow....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Flood, here is one of my famous little quotes for you! It is an old Swedish proverb:

Vänskap fördubblar vår glädje och delar vår sorg.

"Friendship doubles our joy and divides our grief".

That's what you have done for some of us.

Try and get a room with a view so at least you can look at the weather. Stay well!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26153
Jerry...just bring some brownies....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
hi everyone,
isn't there a song called waiting on the rain? it just started to drizzle here and we are suppose to have heavy rain on friday. northern california. last storm with all it's warnings was a dud here, it was all centered at the coast.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.